This document is being provided for the exclusive use of RAJIV PILLAI at LUPIN LTD.
Asia Pacific Equity Research
07 February 2016
Neutral
Lupin Ltd.
LUPN.NS, LPC IN
Base business growth in US sales drive 3Q beat;
Near-term visibility but drivers for growth post 2HFY17
still evolving
As against expectation of another muted quarter (stock declined 8% in the week
before results), Lupin reported strong beat with EBITDA of Rs8.8bn (JPMe/Cons
at Rs8bn). The key drivers for the 3QFY16 revenue beat of ~6% (Rs35.6bn vs.
JPMe Rs33.5bn) were: a) 20% QoQ growth in US sales aided by branded (+56%
due to seasonality) and generic (+18% aided mostly by existing portfolio growth);
b) Improvement in Japan performance (+11% YoY vs. 4% in 1HFY16) in Kyowa
and I’rom; c) 40% QoQ increase in Other operating income (Rs2bn vs. Rs1.4bn in
2Q) with a certain amount received for contract during the quarter vs. over a
period of time. The strong US recovery due to pricing adjustment in base portfolio
and other operating income helped drive EBITDA margin expansion to 24.7% vs.
23% in 1HFY16. The full impact of the Fortamet price increase and gGlumetza
FTF launch will drive strong earnings over the next two quarters. We believe that
consensus P/E of 24-25x FY17E factors in the near term growth drivers, but not
the medium term risks from delay in key approvals in 2HFY17, execution risk in
its inorganic growth strategy and evolving growth drivers for FY18 and later.
 US – Focus on sustainability of existing business growth and gGlumetza
ramp-up. The $34Mn QoQ increase in US revenue was aided by seasonality
(~$5-6Mn from Suprax and growth in Cephs). But bulk of the increase was
driven by portfolio optimization of its base business (price increase and volume
increase) with <5% contribution from new launches. While the new launch
revenue will increase sharply over the next two quarters with exclusivity launch
of gGlemtza (~$1bn annualized brand sales) and contribution from a few other
new products (LoFibra, Azithromycin, Potassium Chloride). We expect US
revenue to increase from $208Mn in 3QFY16 to $250+Mn over the next two
quarters aided by seasonality (flu season improving into 4QFY16), full benefit
of Fortamet price increase, strong new launch revenue.
 What are the key triggers into 2HFY17? a) Sustainability of Fortamet price
hike – LPC sees it as limited competition with only one other approval (Mylan
but not launched); b) Rx trend for Glumetza over the next month will be key to
understand the full revenue potential from FTF launch; c) Post exclusivity
landscape for gGlumetza given Valeant’s Walgreen tie-up and two other
possible players; d) TADs for most of its pipeline (+90% pre Oct-14 pipeline)
with 15-month approval but further delay in key approvals in 2HFY17 is a risk.
Lupin Ltd. (Reuters: LUPN.NS, Bloomberg: LPC IN)
Rs in mn, year-end Mar
FY14A
FY15A
Revenue (Rs mn)
110,866
125,997
EBITDA (Rs mn)
30,028
36,196
Net Profit (Rs mn)
18,364
24,032
EPS (Rs)
40.79
53.20
DPS (Rs)
5.97
7.46
EPS growth (%)
39.4%
30.4%
EBITDA Margin
27.1%
28.7%
ROCE
25.9%
26.8%
ROE
30.3%
30.4%
P/E (x)
44.2
33.9
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
FY16E
133,351
35,481
22,838
50.56
7.11
(5.0%)
26.6%
19.4%
23.2%
35.7
FY17E
164,618
45,617
31,065
68.77
9.66
36.0%
27.7%
21.0%
25.7%
26.2
FY18E
176,248
46,249
32,327
71.56
10.06
4.1%
26.2%
18.3%
21.9%
25.2
Price: Rs1,802.85
Price Target: Rs1,700.00
India
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Services
Neha Manpuria
AC
(91-22) 6157-3589
neha.x.manpuria@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg JPMA MANPURIA <GO>
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
Price Performance
2,100
1,900
Rs 1,700
1,500
1,300
Feb-15
May-15 Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
LUPN.NS share price (Rs)
BSE30 (rebased)
Abs
Rel
YTD
-2.3%
3.6%
1m
1.1%
4.9%
Company Data
Shares O/S (mn)
Market Cap (Rs mn)
Market Cap ($ mn)
Price (Rs)
Date Of Price
3M - Avg daily vol (mn)
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn)
BSE30
Exchange Rate
Price Target End Date
Price Target (Rs)
3m
-1.9%
4.5%
12m
14.2%
28.9%
452
814,374
12,037
1,802.85
05 Feb 16
0.85
22.1
2,4616.97
67.65
31-Dec-16
1,700.00
See page 7 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of RAJIV PILLAI at LUPIN LTD.
Asia Pacific Equity Research
07 February 2016
Neha Manpuria
(91-22) 6157-3589
neha.x.manpuria@jpmorgan.com
Key catalysts for the stock price:
• Ramp-up of new brands and
acquisition of brands for its US
business
• Progress of upcoming niche launches
in the US
• Improvement in growth trend in Japan
Upside risks to our view:
• Faster-than-expected ramp up of US-Branded
business
• Big-ticket approval for the US Generic
business
• Growth from Japan exceeding expectations
given the drugs going off-patent in the medium
term
Downside risks to our view:
• Delay in approvals of products in the US
• Protracted slowdown in the domestic pharma market
• Regulatory/Litigation risks
• Continued weakness in its Japanese business
• INR appreciation could hurt non-INR revenue (~40% of revenue
in US$)
Key financial metrics
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
Valuation and price target basis
Revenues (LC)
125,997
133,351
164,618
176,248
Our Dec-16 PT of Rs1700 is based on at a P/E of 24x, a 20% premium to the
13.6
5.8
23.4
7.1
36,196
35,481
45,617
46,249
28.7
26.6
27.7
26.2
Revenue growth (%)
EBITDA (LC)
EBITDA margin (%)
28.4
31.0
28.0
26.0
24,032
22,838
31,065
32,327
EPS (LC)
53.2
50.6
68.8
71.6
EPS growth (%)
30.4
-5.0
36.0
4.1
DPS (LC)
7.5
7.2
9.7
10.1
Tax rate (%)
Net profit (LC)
BVPS (LC)
196.5
238.7
296.2
356.0
Operating cash flow (LC mn)
27,331
25,165
27,132
35,456
Free cash flow (LC mn)
22,354
14,875
20,132
29,456
Interest cover (X)
369.0
102.1
138.6
148.8
Net margin (%)
19.1
17.1
18.9
18.3
Sales/assets (X)
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.8
Debt/equity (%)
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
Net debt/equity (%)
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
ROE (%)
30.9
23.3
25.8
22.0
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
USD/INR
61.2
64.7
64.7
64.7
US Revenue Growth
11.0
-5.9
34.4
-6.0
Japan Revenue Growth
10.8
7.5
10.0
15.0
Key model assumptions
Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Sensitivity analysis
domestic peer group given its strong growth profile, higher return ratios and upside
from M&A.
Key risks include earlier than expected/delay in approvals in the US, regulatory risk,
and M&A execution.
LPC – US growth visibility in near-term but still WIP for FY18 and beyond
38%
1250
40%
34%
1,127
35%
1150
1,060
30%
1050
25%
891
950
839
20%
803
850
693
15%
750 12%
16%
10%
650
5%
11%
-6% 0%
550
504
-6%
450
-5%
350
-10%
FY12 FY13
FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
US Revenue ($Mn)
% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.
EBITDA
EPS
JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
1% chg in US Generic Revenue
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
JPMe old
47.3
67.1
1% chg in Japan Revenue
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
JPMe new
50.6
68.8
1% chg in R&D Expense
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.4%
% chg
7%
3%
Consensus
50.2
72.9
Sensitivity to
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
2
EPS
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of RAJIV PILLAI at LUPIN LTD.
Neha Manpuria
(91-22) 6157-3589
neha.x.manpuria@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
07 February 2016
Key highlights from the conference call and our views
R&D – Starting to pick-up investment in complex portfolio: LPC continued to
see higher R&D spend (Rs3.9bn vs. Rs2.5-3bn run-rate last year) with management
guiding to strong filing pipeline. We expect R&D to remain at 11-11.5% over the
medium term as LPC steps up investment in injectable, respiratory, bio-similars for
Japan and investment in branded business. LPC has filed 15 ANDAs in 9MFY16 and
indicated at least 10 derma filings by end of fiscal. On respiratory, LPC filed its first
nasal spary, started work on the first MDI (going into clinics), Tiotropium and
Advair. On Advair DPI, management indicated clinics to start in mid-FY17 with this
likely to be its largest R&D program. In terms of its partnership for DPI, LPC
indicated that its partner has worked on the issues in the prototypes, resolved the IP
issues and capacity constraints. On the exiting pipeline, LPC has TADs for (+90%
of its pre-Oct-14 pipeline). On Nexium approval, management indicated that there
are no pending queries from USFDA but sees launch likely only in next fiscal. On
the launch timeline for Welchol and Sevelamer tabs, management indicated that there
are no open CRL and expects launch in 2HFY17. On the suspensions for both, LPC
has open CRL and expects launch only in FY18.
Gavis – Update from management: The closure of the Gavis deal has been delayed
by a few month given the pending FTC approval (asking for divestment of a few
Gavis’ existing products), but expect deal to be done by end of the month/fiscal.
Quarterly revenue run-rate at Gavis is still $30Mn (~$120Mn sales in 2015 vs.
$96Mn in 2014), which is tracking below management estimates. LPC pointed that
Gavis has not launched some of the products that received approvals (controlled
substances) as in some cases it sees chances of better market share as Lupin launch.
LPC said that after seeing the pipeline more closely, it believes it can achieve more
than 3x sales over time. On concerns related to the news-flow on API sourcing for
govt. supplies, LPC pointed that this is upside to the sales expectation and API can
be sourced from markets outside of India (i.e. countries like Italy, Spain, etc.).
Branded business - Working on organic and inorganic growth strategy: The
branded revenue improved 56% QoQ aided by growth in Suprax /Antara. LPC has
optimized its branded portfolio and also reorganized its salesforce to improve sales
for its brands. The Suprax franchise was aided by the flu season (despite soft start)
with good contribution from suspension and growth in chewable and capsules too.
LPC expects Suprax to continue to generate the similar level of sales if not higher.
Management expects the organic strategy to deliver growth in the branded business
in FY17 with continue effort to augment the segment by evaluating inorganic
opportunities. While LPC does need M&A to augment its portfolio and drive larger
contribution, we believe that organic efforts can help improve branded sales to $~6070Mn over the next few years (vs. <$50Mn currently).
Japan – 10-15% growth achievable: Japan performance improved in the quarter
with 10-13% YoY growth in both I’rom and Kyowa. Management indicated that
Japan will continue to see pressure from price cuts for next three years but this will
be offset from new launches and increasing push for generics. On the turnaround in
I’rom, LPC indicated that the growth near-term would be small with meaningful
improvement a few quarters away. We expect Japan business to grow 10-15% over
FY17-18, but margin improvement in the business remains key.
3
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of RAJIV PILLAI at LUPIN LTD.
Asia Pacific Equity Research
07 February 2016
Neha Manpuria
(91-22) 6157-3589
neha.x.manpuria@jpmorgan.com
Other operating income – Some one-off element for the quarter: While a
significant portion of the OII is related to erport incentives (over Rs1bn),
management indicated that the QoQ increase in OII was due to the amount received
in lieu of newer contracts during the quarter instead of over a period of time. We
expect OII to remain elevated vs. last years level in the next two quarters due to
higher export incentives, but the Rs2b OII reported in the quarter in not sustainable
into 3QFY16, in our view.
Other details: a) Tax rate was higher in the 3Q (~35%) given tax on unrealized
profits related to good transferred out of India but not sold as yet. LPC expects this to
normalize to 30-31% in FY16; b) LPC indicated that the Gavis deal is a share
buyout, but it would give the company tax breaks going forward (substantial)
effectively implying faster payback; c) Staff cost flat QoQ despite the bonus payout
in 2QFY16 given increase in R&D employee costs, higher expenses in international
markets like Brazil and also impact from weak INR; d) Working capital days
increased from 106 days in Sep-15 to 123 in Dec-15, which management indicated is
due to account receivables and should come down by end of fiscal; e) Compliance
update: LPC had 12 inspection in the last year with Form 483 issues in 3 cases
(Indore, Goa and Aurangabad). While Indore has received EIR, LPC is working on
resolving the issues from Goa and Aurangabad (but got approval from both
facilities). LPC indicated that most new filings are from Indore and Nagpur.
Table 1: Indian Pharma: Valuation summary
Mcap
Sun Pharma
Lupin
Dr Reddy's
Cipla
Cadila
Aurobindo
Glenmark
CMP
858
1,803
3,109
570
326
763
734
$Mn
30,505
12,006
7,837
6,770
4,940
6,597
3,061
P/E (x)
CY16/FY17
26.0
26.9
19.8
20.5
19.6
17.5
14.1
CY17/FY18
20.5
25.0
14.7
16.5
15.8
14.6
13.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
CY16/FY17
17.3
17.1
12.1
15.0
13.9
11.6
9.7
CY17/FY18
13.8
15.6
9.0
12.4
11.4
10.1
8.7
P/BV (x)
CY16/FY17
5.7
6.2
3.4
3.2
5.1
4.5
3.4
CY17/FY18
4.6
5.1
2.9
2.8
4.0
3.7
2.8
RoE (%)
CY16/FY17
27.5
25.6
18.6
17.4
28.1
30.8
27.4
CY17/FY18
28.1
22.6
21.2
18.4
27.4
27.4
23.5
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Note: Consensus estimates for NC stocks Aurobindo and Cadila. J.P. Morgan estimates for all others.
Lupin Ltd. (Neutral; Price Target: Rs1,700.00)
Investment Thesis
We believe LPC is a high-quality stock in the sector, trading at a premium valuation
given its strong U.S. generics business, debt-free balance sheet and higher return
profile. The current multiple fairly values the earnings growth trajectory, in our view,
and we see limited scope for further re-rating. In our view, business development
opportunities pursued by the company will remain a key driver for the stock given
the comfortable balance sheet.
Valuation
Our Dec-16 price target of Rs1700 is based on a 24x P/E, a 20% premium to the
domestic peer group average given LPC’s relatively strong growth profile in the U.S.
generics business (aided by business development), presence in Japanese markets,
and better return ratios.
Risks to Rating and Price Target
Key upside risks include accretive business development opportunity, faster-thanexpected ramp-up of approvals in the U.S. and Japan. Downside risks include delays
in approvals for the U.S. generics business, regulatory risk and INR appreciation.
4
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of RAJIV PILLAI at LUPIN LTD.
Neha Manpuria
(91-22) 6157-3589
neha.x.manpuria@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
07 February 2016
Lupin Ltd.: Summary of Financials
Income Statement
Rs in millions, year end Mar
Revenues
% change Y/Y
Gross Profit
% change Y/Y
EBITDA
% change Y/Y
EBIT
% change Y/Y
EBIT Margin
Net Interest
Earnings before tax
% change Y/Y
Tax
as % of EBT
Net income (reported)
% change Y/Y
Shares outstanding
EPS (reported)
% change Y/Y
Balance sheet
Rs in millions, year end Mar
Cash and cash equivalents
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Others
Current assets
Cash flow statement
FY14
FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Rs in millions, year end Mar
110,866 125,997 133,351 164,618 176,248 PBT
17.2% 13.6%
5.8%
23.4%
7.1% Depr. & amortization
72,693 84,427 90,012 114,410 122,492 Change in working capital
22.9% 16.1%
6.6%
27.1%
7.1% Other
30,028 36,196 35,481 45,617 46,249 Cash flow from operations
32.3% 20.5%
(2.0%)
28.6%
1.4%
27,418 31,849 31,091 40,628 40,659 Capex
41.5% 16.2%
(2.4%)
30.7%
0.1% Other
24.7% 25.3%
23.3%
24.7%
23.1% Free cash flow
(267)
(98)
(347)
(329)
(311)
28,317 34,148 33,244 43,299 43,848 Equity raised/(repaid)
47.1% 20.6%
(2.6%)
30.2%
1.3% Debt raised/(repaid)
(9,622) (9,704) (10,306) (12,124) (11,401) Other
34.0% 28.4%
31.0%
28.0%
26.0% Dividends paid
18,364 24,032 22,838 31,065 32,327 Beginning cash
39.7% 30.9%
(5.0%)
36.0%
4.1% Ending cash
450
452
452
452
452 DPS
40.79
53.20
50.56
68.77
71.56
39.4% 30.4%
(5.0%)
36.0%
4.1%
Ratio Analysis
FY14
FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Rs in millions, year end Mar
7,975
4,814 29,131 42,718 65,428 Gross margin
24,641 26,566 28,116 34,709 37,161 EBITDA margin
21,295 25,036 27,401 33,826 36,215 Operating margin
5,330
5,350
5,662
6,990
7,483 Net margin
61,005 78,324 106,870 134,801 162,846
Sales per share growth
LT investments
21
25
25
25
25 Sales growth
Net fixed assets
30,019 32,961 35,571 37,581 37,991 Net profit growth
Total Assets
102,060 131,377 165,983 196,606 225,314 EPS growth
Liabilities
Interest coverage (x)
Payables
15,941 19,561 20,702 25,556 27,362
Others
5,326 13,379 13,953 14,585 15,280 Net debt to equity
Short-term debt
5,028
4,353 18,000 17,000 16,000 Working Capital to Sales
Total current liabilities
26,296 37,292 52,655 57,141 58,641 Sales/assets
Long-term debt
1,510
1,018
1,018
1,018
1,018 Assets/equity
Other liabilities
2,945
2,465
2,465
2,465
2,465 ROAE
Total Liabilities
32,075 42,396 57,921 62,585 64,281 ROACE
Shareholders' equity
69,316 88,741 107,821 133,780 160,792
BVPS
153.95 196.45 238.69 296.16 355.96
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
FY14 FY15
28,317 34,148
2,610 4,347
(4,663) (949)
2,234
680
20,039 27,330
FY16E
33,244
4,390
(2,510)
100
25,165
FY17E
43,299
4,990
(9,361)
110
27,132
FY18E
43,848
5,590
(2,892)
121
35,456
(5,252) (8,676) (10,290)
(2,446) 4,425
0
14,963 18,725 15,115
(7,000)
0
20,369
(6,000)
0
29,686
2
2
(5,298) (700)
(41)
302
(3,234) (1,573)
3,109 6,066
7,975 4,813
5.97
7.46
0
13,647
(447)
(3,757)
4,814
29,131
7.11
0
(1,000)
(439)
(5,106)
29,131
42,718
9.66
0
(1,000)
(432)
(5,315)
42,718
65,428
10.06
FY14
65.6%
27.1%
24.7%
16.6%
FY15
67.0%
28.7%
25.3%
19.1%
FY16E
67.5%
26.6%
23.3%
17.1%
FY17E
69.5%
27.7%
24.7%
18.9%
FY18E
69.5%
26.2%
23.1%
18.3%
16.9%
17.2%
39.7%
39.4%
112.7
13.3%
13.6%
30.9%
30.4%
369.0
5.8%
5.8%
(5.0%)
(5.0%)
102.1
23.4%
23.4%
36.0%
36.0%
138.6
7.1%
7.1%
4.1%
4.1%
148.8
(2.1%)
31.3%
1.2
1.6
30.3%
25.9%
0.6%
32.6%
1.1
1.5
30.4%
26.8%
(9.4%) (18.4%) (30.1%)
40.7% 47.2% 59.1%
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.5
1.5
1.4
23.2% 25.7% 21.9%
19.4% 21.0% 18.3%
5
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of RAJIV PILLAI at LUPIN LTD.
Asia Pacific Equity Research
07 February 2016
Neha Manpuria
(91-22) 6157-3589
neha.x.manpuria@jpmorgan.com
JPM Q-Profile
Lupin Limited (INDIA / Health Care)
As Of: 29-Jan-2016
Quant_Strategy@jpmorgan.com
Local Share Price
Current:
1707.05
12 Mth Forward EPS
Current:
69.45
80.00
2,500.00
60.00
2,000.00
40.00
1,500.00
20.00
1,000.00
0.00
500.00
-20.00
24.6x
35.0x
Current:
Aug/15
Apr/14
Dec/14
Aug/13
Apr/12
P/E Relative to India Index
Dec/12
Aug/11
Apr/10
Dec/10
Aug/09
Apr/08
Dec/08
Aug/07
Apr/06
Dec/06
Aug/05
Apr/04
Dec/04
Aug/03
Apr/02
Dec/02
Aug/01
-40.00
Dec/00
Dec/15
Jun/14
Current:
Mar/15
Sep/13
Dec/12
Jun/11
PE (1Yr Forward)
Mar/12
Sep/10
Dec/09
Jun/08
Mar/09
Sep/07
Dec/06
Jun/05
Mar/06
Sep/04
Dec/03
Jun/02
Mar/03
Sep/01
Dec/00
0.00
1.45
2.00
1.80
30.0x
1.60
25.0x
1.40
1.20
20.0x
1.00
15.0x
0.80
10.0x
0.60
Earnings Yield (& Local Bond Yield)
14%
12Mth fwd EY
Current:
India BY
4.07%
Current:
Aug/15
Apr/14
Dec/14
Aug/13
Apr/12
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
Dec/12
Aug/11
Apr/10
Dec/10
Aug/09
Apr/08
Dec/08
Aug/07
Apr/06
Dec/06
Aug/05
Apr/04
Dec/04
Aug/03
Apr/02
Dec/02
Dec/00
Aug/15
Dec/14
Apr/14
Aug/13
Dec/12
Apr/12
Aug/11
Apr/10
Dec/10
Aug/09
Dec/08
Apr/08
Aug/07
Dec/06
Apr/06
Aug/05
Apr/04
Dec/04
Aug/03
Apr/02
Dec/02
Aug/01
0.00
Dec/00
0.20
0.0x
Aug/01
0.40
5.0x
0.41
10.0
Proxy
9.0
12%
8.0
10%
7.0
6.0
8%
5.0
6%
4.0
4%
3.0
2.0
2%
1.0
ROE (Trailing)
Current:
23.10
45.00
Price/Book (Value)
Current:
12.0x
P/B Trailing
40.00
Aug/15
Dec/14
Apr/14
Aug/13
Dec/12
Apr/12
Aug/11
Dec/10
Apr/10
Aug/09
Dec/08
Apr/08
Aug/07
Apr/06
Dec/06
Aug/05
Apr/04
Dec/04
Aug/03
Apr/02
Dec/02
Aug/01
0.0
Dec/00
Aug/15
Dec/14
Apr/14
Aug/13
Dec/12
Apr/12
Aug/11
Dec/10
Apr/10
Aug/09
Dec/08
Apr/08
Aug/07
Dec/06
Apr/06
Aug/05
Dec/04
Apr/04
Aug/03
Apr/02
Dec/02
Aug/01
Dec/00
0%
7.8x
P/B Forward
10.0x
35.00
30.00
8.0x
25.00
6.0x
20.00
15.00
4.0x
10.00
2.0x
Aug/15
Dec/14
Apr/14
Aug/13
Dec/12
Apr/12
Aug/11
Dec/10
Apr/10
Aug/09
Dec/08
Apr/08
Aug/07
Dec/06
Apr/06
Aug/05
Dec/04
Apr/04
Aug/03
Dec/02
Apr/02
0.0x
Aug/01
Aug/15
Dec/14
Apr/14
Aug/13
Dec/12
Apr/12
Aug/11
Dec/10
Apr/10
Aug/09
Dec/08
Apr/08
Aug/07
Dec/06
Apr/06
Aug/05
Dec/04
Apr/04
Aug/03
Apr/02
Dec/02
Aug/01
Dec/00
0.00
Dec/00
5.00
Summary
Lupin Limited
INDIA
Health Care
12mth Forward PE
P/BV (Trailing)
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
ROE (Trailing)
11188.36
2.522767 TICKER LPC IN EQUITY
Pharmaceuticals
Latest
Min
Max
24.58x
0.10
10.17
7.77x
0.00
8.78
0.41
18.19
41.24
23.10
Median
Average
2 S.D.+
2 S.D. -
5.82
0.68
30.26
5.34
0.86
28.89
9.94
3.17
42.93
0.73
-1.45
14.85
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, JPMorgan Quantitative & Derivative Strategy
6
29-Jan-16
As Of:
1,707.05
Local Price:
69.45
EPS:
% to Min % to Max % to Med % to Avg
-99%
-100%
-21%
31%
2051%
79%
-25%
67%
31%
-31%
111%
25%
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of RAJIV PILLAI at LUPIN LTD.
Asia Pacific Equity Research
07 February 2016
Neha Manpuria
(91-22) 6157-3589
neha.x.manpuria@jpmorgan.com
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Important Disclosures

Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan Securities plc and/or an affiliate is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in
Lupin Ltd..


Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients: Lupin Ltd..
Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following
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
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
Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services
other than investment banking from Lupin Ltd..


Other Significant Financial Interests: J.P. Morgan owns a position of 1 million USD or more in the debt securities of Lupin Ltd..
Debt position: J.P. Morgan may own a position in the debt securities of Lupin Ltd. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and/or its affiliates is
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Lupin Ltd. (LUPN.NS, LPC IN) Price Chart
3,366
Date
N Rs975N Rs1,300N Rs1,550
N Rs1,775
N Rs950N Rs1,175N Rs1,600
N Rs1,625
2,805
N Rs900 N Rs1,000N Rs1,400
2,244
NRN Rs1,700
Price(Rs)
1,683
1,122
561
0
Nov
10
Aug
11
May
12
Feb
13
Nov
13
Aug
14
May
15
Feb
16
Rating Share Price
(Rs)
Price Target
(Rs)
25-Nov-13 N
850.85
900.00
04-Feb-14 N
921.80
950.00
21-Apr-14
N
956.90
975.00
07-Jul-14
N
1078.10
1000.00
04-Aug-14 N
1165.40
1175.00
29-Oct-14
N
1357.55
1300.00
07-Jan-15
N
1377.60
1400.00
18-Feb-15 N
1681.85
1600.00
14-May-15 N
1689.50
1550.00
23-Jul-15
NR
1728.25
--
27-Jul-15
N
1617.55
1625.00
03-Sep-15 N
1862.35
1775.00
06-Jan-16
1753.20
1700.00
N
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
Break in coverage Jul 23, 2015 - Jul 27, 2015.
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire
period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
7
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of RAJIV PILLAI at LUPIN LTD.
Neha Manpuria
(91-22) 6157-3589
neha.x.manpuria@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
07 February 2016
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
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average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve
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Coverage Universe: Manpuria, Neha: Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (APLH.BO), Cipla Ltd. (CIPL.NS), Dr. Reddy's Laboratories
Limited (REDY.BO), Fortis Healthcare Ltd (FOHE.BO), Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (GLEN.NS), Lupin Ltd. (LUPN.NS), Sun
Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (SUN.BO)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of December 31, 2015
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage
IB clients*
JPMS Equity Research Coverage
IB clients*
Overweight
(buy)
44%
52%
45%
70%
Neutral
(hold)
44%
47%
47%
63%
Underweight
(sell)
12%
35%
8%
50%
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.
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8
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of RAJIV PILLAI at LUPIN LTD.
Neha Manpuria
(91-22) 6157-3589
neha.x.manpuria@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
07 February 2016
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9
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of RAJIV PILLAI at LUPIN LTD.
Neha Manpuria
(91-22) 6157-3589
neha.x.manpuria@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
07 February 2016
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10