PROFESSIONAL MARKET STUDY
FOR THE GRACE CROSSING APARTMENTS
A PROPOSED LIHTC ELDERLY DEVELOPMENT
LOCATED IN:
STATESBORO, BULLOCH COUNTY, GA
PREPARED FOR:
GRACE CROSSING, L.P.
SUMMERVILLE, GEORGIA
PREPARED BY:
KOONTZ and SALINGER
P.O. BOX 37523
RALEIGH, NC 27627-7523
JULY 2010
Table of Contents
Page
Section A - Executive Summary
3
Section B - Project Description
Assignment & Project Description
16
Section C - Site Evaluation
Site & Neighborhood Description
Summary
18
26
Section D - Market Area Description
Market Area Description
27
Section E - Community Demographic Data
Population Trends, Projections, Characteristics
Household Characteristics
Income Characteristics
30
35
38
Section F - Employment Trend
Labor Force Trends & Economic Base
Summary
44
49
Section G - Demand Analysis
Income Threshold Parameters
Rent Reconciliation
Demand Analysis - Effective Demand Pool
Demand Analysis - Effective Tenant Pool
Upcoming Direct Competition
Capture Rate Analysis
Rent Analysis
Negative Impact
53
56
57
61
62
65 & 67
68
69
Section H - Competitive Environment - Supply Analysis
Supply Analysis
Survey of the Competitive Environment
70
79
Section I - Absorption & Stabilization Analysis
92
Section J - Interviews
93
Section K - Conclusion & Recommendation
95
Section L - Identity of Interest
96
Appendix A - Data Set
98
2
SECTION A
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.
Project Description:
.
Brief description of project location including address
and/or position relative to the closet cross-street.
.
The proposed site is located off West Jones Avenue,
approximately 1 mile southwest of Downtown Statesboro.
The site is located within the Statesboro city limits.
.
Construction and occupancy types.
.
The proposed new construction project design will
comprise 3 two-story buildings connected by two
elevators. The project will include a separate building
comprising a managers office, central laundry, and
community room. The project will provide 128-parking
spaces.
The proposed Occupancy Type is Housing for Older
Persons (age 55+).
.
Unit mix including bedrooms, bathrooms, square footage,
income targeting rents, utility allowance.
Project Mix
PROPOSED PROJECT PARAMETERS
# of Units
Unit Size
(Heated sf)
Unit Size
(Gross sf)
1BR/1b
8
762
Na
2BR/2b
56
1,078
Na
Total
64
Bedroom Mix
Project Rents:
The proposed development will target approximately 20% of the
units at 50% or below of area median income (AMI), and 80% at 60%
AMI. Rent excludes all utilities, yet will include trash removal.
3
PROPOSED PROJECT RENTS @ 50% AMI
# of Units
Net Rent
Utility
Allowance*
1BR/1b
3
$320
$130
$450
2BR/2b
10
$350
$166
$516
Bedroom Mix
Gross Rent
PROPOSED PROJECT RENTS @ 60% AMI
Bedroom Mix
# of Units
Net Rent
Utility
Allowance*
Gross Rent
1BR/1b
5
$320
$130
$450
2BR/2b
46
$350
$166
$516
*Provided by applicant.
2.
.
Any additional subsidies available including project
based rental assistance (PBRA).
.
The proposed LIHTC development will not include any
additional deep subsidy rental assistance, including
PBRA. The proposed LIHTC development will accept deep
subsidy Section 8 vouchers.
.
Brief description of proposed amenities and how they
compare to existing properties.
.
Overall, the subject will be competitive to very
competitive with most the existing program assisted and
market rate apartment properties in the market
regarding the proposed unit and development amenity
package. A complete kitchen amenity package is proposed
and the overall development amenity package includes: a
central laundry and clubhouse, with a fitness center,
computer room, and library.
Site Description/Evaluation:
•
A brief description of physical features of the site
and adjacent parcels. In addition, a brief overview of
the neighborhood land composition (residential,
commercial, industrial, agricultural).
•
The approximately 14.4-acre, rectangular shaped tract
is wooded and relatively flat. The site is not located
within a 100-year flood plain. At the time of the
survey the subject site was zoned PUD - Planned Unit
Development and was in process of re-zoning in order to
maintain the PUD zoning status.
•
The overall character of the neighborhood in the
immediate vicinity of the site can be defined as
predominantly as a mixture of: vacant land use, and
nearby single-family.
4
•
Directly north of the site is a small vacant area
followed by low to moderate income predominantly
single-family residential development. About .5 miles
north is the southern portion of the Downtown
Statesboro central business district. Directly south of
the site is vacant land use. A portion of the tract to
the south is site of the future Bethany Homes Assisted
Living Facility. Directly east of the site is a vacant
tract that is presently for sale. Further east is
moderate income single-family development. Directly
west of the tract is wooded vacant land.
•
A discussion of site access and visibility.
.
Access to the site is available off West Jones Avenue.
West Jones Avenue is a low density traveled road, with
a speed limit of 30 miles per hour in the immediate
vicinity of the site. Also, the location of the site
off West Jones Avenue does not present problems of
egress and ingress to the site.
•
The site in relation to the subject and the surrounding
roads is agreeable to signage, in particular to passing
traffic along West Jones Avenue.
•
Any significant positive or negative aspects of the
subject site.
•
Overall, the field research revealed the following
strengths and weaknesses of the subject site in
relation to subject marketability.
SITE/SUBJECT ATTRIBUTES:
STRENGTHS
W EAKNESSES
Good accessibility to services, trade, and
health care
Good linkages to area road system
Nearby road speed and noise are acceptable
Surrounding land uses are acceptable
•
A brief summary of the site’s proximity to neighborhood
services including shopping, medical care, employment
concentrations, public transportation, etc...
•
Ready access is available from the site to the
following: major retail trade and service areas,
employment opportunities, local health care providers,
and area churches. All major facilities in the city
can be accessed within a 5 to 10 minute drive. At the
time of the market study, no significant infrastructure
development was in progress within the immediate
vicinity of the site.
5
3.
•
An overall conclusion of the site’s appropriateness for
the proposed development.
•
The site location is considered to be marketable. In
the opinion of the analyst the proposed site location
offers attributes that will enhance the rent-up process
of the proposed development.
Market Area Definition:
•
A brief definition of the primary market area including
boundaries of the market area and their approximate
distance from the subject property.
•
The Primary Market Area (PMA) for the proposed multifamily LIHTC elderly development consists of the
following census tracts in Bulloch County:
9902-9908
Note: The PMA excluded the extreme northern and southern
portions of Bulloch County. The PMA is bounded as follows:
4.
Distance from
Subject
Direction
Boundary
North
Northern portion of Bulloch County &
Screven County
6.5 - 11 miles
East
Effingham & Screven Counties
10 - 15 miles
South
Southern portion of Bulloch County
10.5 - 12.5miles
West
Candler & Evans Counties
8 - 11 miles
Community Demographic Data:
•
Current and projected household and population counts
for the primary market area. For senior reports, data
should be presented for both overall and senior
households and populations/households.
•
Total population and household gains over the next
several years, (2010-2013) are forecasted for the PMA
at an increased rate of growth, represented by a rate
of change approximating 2% per year. In the PMA, in
2000, the total population count was 46,092 versus
60,934 in 2013. In the PMA, in 2000, the total
household count was 17,226 versus 23,962 in 2013.
•
Population gains over the next several years, (20102013) are forecasted for the PMA for the 55 and over
age group continuing at a very significant rate of
increase, with a forecasted rate of growth at almost 4%
per year. In the PMA, in 2000, for population age 55
and over the count was 6,394 versus 7,199 in 2013. In
the PMA, in 2000, for households age 55 and over the
count was 4,636 versus 6,871 in 2013.
6
•
Households by tenure including any trends in rental
rates.
•
The 2000 to 2014 tenure trend revealed an increase in
both owner-occupied and renter-occupied tenure in the
PMA for both households age 55+ and 62+.
•
Households by income level.
•
It is projected that in 2013, approximately 9.5% of the
elderly owner-occupied households age 55+ in the PMA
were in the subject property 50% AMI LIHTC target
income group of $13,500 to $21,450.
•
It is projected that in 2013, approximately 18.5% of
the elderly renter-occupied households age 55+ in the
PMA were in the subject property 50% AMI LIHTC target
income group of $13,500 to $21,450.
•
It is projected that in 2013, approximately 15% of the
elderly owner-occupied households age 55+ in the PMA
were in the subject property 60% AMI LIHTC target
income group of $13,500 to $25,740.
•
It is projected that in 2013, approximately 24% of the
elderly renter-occupied households age 55+ in the PMA
were in the subject property 60% AMI LIHTC target
income group of $13,500 to $25,740.
•
Impact of foreclosed, abandoned and vacant, single and
multi-family homes, and commercial properties in the
PMA of the proposed development should be discussed.
•
The foreclosure problem is still very much evident
Nationwide, Statewide, and to a lesser degree in
Bulloch County. ForeclosureListings.com is a nationwide
data base with over 2 million listings (25%
foreclosures, 27% pre-foreclosures, 25% auctions, and
23% brokers listings). As of 6/27/10, there were 23
listings in Bulloch County.
•
In the Statesboro PMA, the relationship between the
local area foreclosure market and existing LIHTC supply
is not crystal clear, in particular with the existing
LIHTC elderly supply. At the time of the survey, the
Laurel Pointe (new construction) LIHTC elderly property
was 99% occupied and the Ashton Statesboro (acquisition
rehab) LIHTC elderly property was 100% occupied.
•
Note: Recent anecdotal news information points to the
fact that the majority of the foreclosed properties
were occupied by first time buyers or move-up buyers,
of which the majority were younger households, still in
the job market, (at the time) versus elderly
homeowners. The recent recession and current slow
recovery enhanced the foreclosure problem and
negatively impacted young to middle age homeowners more
so than the elderly.
7
•
5.
With regard to the elderly desiring to sell a home in a
market with many foreclosed properties they have the
upper hand in terms of pricing power. Many purchased
their homes decades ago at far lower prices than today
and many own homes out right. Also, many transfer home
ownership rights to heirs versus selling outright.
Economic Data:
•
Trends in employment for the county and/or region.
Employment should be based on the number of jobs in the
county (i.e., covered employment).
•
Between 2000 and 2008, the average increase in covered
employment in Bulloch County was approximately + 265
workers or approximately + 1.25% per year. The rate of
covered employment loss between 2008 and 2009, was very
significant at around - 3.5%, representing a net
decrease of almost 900 workers. The rate of covered
employment change into 2010, is forecasted to remain
negative, albeit at a reduced rate of decline. It is
estimated that presently, the majority of the firms in
continuing operation in the county are operating with a
workforce size that is appropriate to levels of current
production demand.
•
Employment by sector for the county and/or region.
•
The top four employment sectors in Bulloch County are:
manufacturing, trade, government, and service. The
forecast for 2010 is for the manufacturing sector to
decline and the service and trade sectors to stabilize.
•
Unemployment trends for the county and/or region for
the past 5 years.
•
Average annual unemployment rates between 2005 and 2007
ranged between 4.2% to 4.6%. The average annual rate
increased in 2008 to 5.9% and again in 2009 to 8.8%.
Monthly unemployment rates in 2009 were among the
highest exhibited in over 10-years in Bulloch County,
ranging between 7.9% and 9.9%. These rates of
unemployment for the local economy are reflective of
Bulloch County participating in the recent State,
National, and Global recession and continuing period of
slow to very slow recovery growth.
•
A brief discussion of any recent or planned major
employment contractions or expansions.
•
The Statesboro-Bulloch County local economy is very
well diversified, with the major sectors of economy
comprised of: (1) Georgia Southern University, (2)
local government and education, (3) a sizable service
and trade sector, (4) a healthcare sector that serves a
regional market, and (5) agri-business.
8
•
Approximately 80% of the area workforce lives and works
in Bulloch County. Other than Bulloch County the
majority of the county residents that commute out of
county go to Chatham County, which is located directly
southeast of Bulloch County, and is part of the
Savannah Metro Area labor force market. The two
employment centers are connected by I-16.
•
An overall conclusion regarding the stability of the
county’s overall economic environment. This conclusion
should include an opinion if the current economic
environment will negatively impact the demand for
additional or renovated rental housing.
•
Very recent State and National economic indicators are
not overly negative for Bulloch County in the short
term. The local economy appears to be on the upswing at
a rate much greater than many other rural markets in
East-Central Georgia. According to the President of
the local chamber of commerce, Statesboro and Bulloch
County are likely to bounce back from the recent
recession quicker that other adjacent rural counties
owing to its local economic diversification. Both
Georgia Southern University and the East Georgia
Regional Medical Center provide a strong economic base
for the local economy and compliment the area’s growing
retail trade and service business growth.
•
It is believed that once the recession fully subsides,
very likely in early to mid-2010, Statesboro and
Bulloch County are well positioned to benefit from an
expanding economy, given: (1) the regional target
market of its local healthcare sector, (2) the location
of Georgia Southern, and (3) the fact that the local
development authority is targeting in-state and out-ofstate manufacturers in order to further diversify the
local employment base. At present, it was reported
that several news announcements are pending regarding
new manufacturing firms locating to Bulloch County, and
existing firms expanding. Source: Ms. Peggy Chapman,
President, Statesboro-Bulloch Chamber of Commerce and
Development Authority, (912) 489-9115.
•
In addition, Bulloch County will continue to become a
destination point for (1) working class population from
the surrounding rural counties owing to the size of the
local manufacturing and service sector economic base
and (2) the aging baby boomer population in the State,
as well as those individuals from out-of State seeking
a retirement location.
•
Several of the existing LIHTC apartment managers, (both
elderly and family properties) stated that a number of
their current tenants came from out of county and out
of state locations.
9
6.
Project-Specific Affordability and Demand Analysis:
•
Number of renter households income qualified for the
proposed development given the proposed unit mix,
income targeting, and rents. For senior projects, this
should be age and income qualified renter households.
•
The forecasted number of age and income qualified
renter households for the proposed LIHTC elderly
development is 570.
•
Overall estimate of demand based on DCA’s demand
methodology.
•
The overall forecasted number of income qualified
renter households for the proposed LIHTC elderly
development taking into consideration like-kind
competitive supply introduced into the market since
2000 is 512.
•
Capture Rates including: Overall, LIHTC, by AMI.
Proposed Project Capture Rate All Units
12.5%
Proposed Project Capture Rate LIHTC Units
12.5%
Proposed Project Capture Rate LIHTC Units @ 50% AMI
8.1%
Proposed Project Capture Rate LIHTC Units @ 60% AMI
14.5%
Proposed Project Capture Rate Market Rate Units
7.
Na
•
A conclusion regarding the achievability of the above
Capture Rates.
•
The above capture rates all well below the GA-DCA
thresholds. They are considered to be a reliable
quantitative indicator of market support for the
proposed subject development.
Competitive Rental Analysis:
•
An analysis of the competitive properties in the PMA.
•
At the time of the survey, the overall estimated
vacancy rate of the surveyed elderly apartment
properties was approximately 1.8%.
•
At the time of the survey, the one LIHTC elderly
property, Laurel Point was 99% occupied. At the time
of the survey, the 72-unit development had 9-applicants
on the waiting list. Laurel Pointe opened in 2003.
Management reported that the development was 100%
occupied within 12-months of opening. The estimated
was somewhere close to 10-months.
10
•
At the time of the survey, the overall estimated
vacancy rate of the surveyed apartment properties was
approximately 5%. The overall estimated vacancy rate
of the surveyed LIHTC-family apartment properties was
approximately 12%. The overall estimated vacancy rate
of the surveyed market rate apartment properties was
approximately 2%.
•
Number of properties.
•
Three program assisted properties targeting the elderly
population, representing 228 units, were surveyed in
the subject’s competitive environment, in detail. One
of the properties is a new construction, LIHTC elderly
development and one is an acquisition rehab LIHTC
elderly property (with 100% PBRA).
•
Eight LIHTC-family and market rate properties,
representing 749 units, were surveyed in the subject’s
competitive environment, in detail. Note: Four of the
surveyed properties are LIHTC family complexes, of
which one offers market rate units.
•
Rent bands for each bedroom type proposed.
Bedroom type
Rent Band (Subject)
Rent Band (M arket Rate)
1BR/1b
$320
$428 - $454
2BR/1b
Na
Na
2BR/2b
$350
$589 - $750
3BR/2b
Na
Na
•
Average Market rents.
Bedroom type
Average M arket Rent
1BR/1b
$450
2BR/1b
$453
2BR/2b
$590*
3BR/2b
$700*
* adjusted down (from actual market average) to account for student apt market
8.
Absorption/Stabilization Estimate:
•
An estimate of the number of units to be leased at the
subject property, on average.
•
The forecasted rent-up scenario suggests an average of
6-units being leased per month.
11
•
Number of units expected to be leased by AMI Targeting.
AM I Target Group
Number of units Expected to be Leased*
50% AMI
13
60% AMI
51
* at the end of the 1 to 10-month absorption period
9.
•
Number of months required for the project to reach
stabilization of 93% occupancy.
•
A 93% occupancy rate is forecasted to occur within 10months of the placed in service date. Stabilized
occupancy, subsequent to initial lease-up is expected
to be 93% or higher up to but no later than a three
month period, beyond the absorption period.
•
The absorption rate should coincide with other key
conclusions. For example, insufficient demand or
unachievable rents should be reflected in the
absorption rate.
•
A reconciliation of the proposed LIHTC net rents by
bedroom type with current average market rate net rents
by bedroom type are very supportive of the forecasted
absorption and stabilization periods. In addition, the
72-unit Laurel Pointe LIHTC elderly development (built
in 2003) was reported to have been 100% occupied within
12-months.
Overall Conclusion:
•
A narrative detailing the key conclusions of the report
including the analyst’s opinion regarding the potential
for success of the proposed development.
•
Based upon the analysis and the conclusions of each of
the report sections, it is recommended that the
proposed application proceed forward based on market
findings, as presently configured.
•
Elderly population and household growth is very
significant, with annual growth rates approximating 4%
per year.
•
At present, the Statesboro PMA has two LIHTC elderly
properties. One property is the 72-unit, new
construction Laurel Pointe development. At the time of
the survey, it was 99% occupied and maintained a
waiting list. The other property is the 98-unit
acquisition rehab Ashton Statesboro development. At the
time of the survey, it was 100% occupied and maintained
a waiting list.
12
•
In the area of unit size, by bedroom type, the subject
will offer a very competitive unit size, based upon the
proposed floor plans.
•
The subject will be competitive to very competitive
with all of the existing program assisted and market
rate apartment properties in the market regarding
proposed net rents by bedroom type.
•
The proposed subject 1BR net rent at both 50% and 60%
AMI is approximately 29% less than the
comparable/competitive 1BR median market rate net rent.
•
The proposed subject 2BR/2b net rent at both 50% and
60% AMI is approximately 36% less than the
comparable/competitive 2BR/2b median market rate net
rent.
•
The proposed subject design, comprising a two story
building with elevator access. It is a proven design
and is considered to be one that will be very
marketable and competitive with the local area
apartment market targeting elderly households, seeking
alternative affordable rental housing.
•
The subject bedroom mix is considered to be
appropriate. In the opinion of the analyst, the market
is in need of larger bedroom sizes, both in terms of
square footage and number of bedrooms. In addition,
the manager of the Laurel Pointe LIHTC elderly
development reported that 2BR units were in greatest
demand.
13
Summary Table
Development Name: Grace Crossing Apartments
Total Number of Units: 64
Location: Statesboro, GA (Bulloch County)
# LIHTC Units: 64
PMA Boundary: North 6.5-11 miles; East 10-15 miles
South 10.5-12.5 miles; West 8-11 miles
Farthest Boundary Distance to
Subject: 15 miles
Rental Housing Stock (found on pages 74 - 89)
Type
# Properties
Total Units
Vacant Units
Avg Occupancy
11
977
36
96.3%
Market Rate Housing
4
466
8
98.3%
Assisted/Subsidized
Housing Ex LIHTC
3
159
5
96.9%
LIHTC (elderly)
2
170
1
99.4%
LIHTC (family)
2
182
22
88.0%
Stabilized Comps
3
210
7
96.7%
Properties in Lease Up
0
0
Na
Na
All Rental Housing
Subject Development
Average Market Rent
Highest
Unadjusted
Comp Rent
Number
Units
Number
Bedrooms
#
Baths
Size
(SF)
Proposed
Rent
Per
Unit
Per
SF
Adv
(%)
Per
Unit
Per
SF
8
1
1
762
$320
$450
$.64
29%
$428
$.52
56
2
2
1078
$350
$590
$.56
41%
$589
$.57
Demographic Data (found on pages 36 & 66)
2000
2010
2013
Renter Households
949
20.47%
1,365
22.30%
1,606
23.37%
Income-Qualified Renter HHs
(LIHTC)
297
31.30%
430
31.50%
512
31.88%
Income-Qualified Renter HHs
(MR) (if applicable)
Na
%
Na
%
Na
%
14
Targeted Income Qualified Renter Household Demand (found on pages 52 - 66)
Type of Demand
30%
50%
60%
MR
Other
Overall
Renter Household Growth
56
102
158
Existing Households
123
200
323
Homeowner Conversion (Seniors)
14
27
41
Secondary Market Demand 10%
18
30
48
Less Comparable Supply
50
8
58
Net Income-Qualified Renter HHs
161
351
512
Capture Rates (found on page 67)
Targeted Population
30%
Capture Rate
50%
60%
8.1%
14.5%
MR
MARKET STUDY FOLLOWS
15
Other
Overall
12.5%
he proposed Low Income
Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC)
multi-family
development
will target elderly households,
age 55 and over in Statesboro
and Bulloch County, Georgia.
The subject property is located
off West Jones Avenue, within
the Statesboro city limits.
T
SECTION B
PROPOSED PROJECT
DESCRIPTION
The market study assignment was to ascertain market demand for
a proposed multi-family elderly development to be known as the
Grace Crossing Apartments, for the Grace Crossing, L.P., under the
following scenario:
Project Description
PROPOSED PROJECT PARAMETERS
# of Units
Unit Size
(Heated sf)
Unit Size
(Gross sf)
1BR/1b
8
762
Na
2BR/2b
56
1078
Na
Total
64
Bedroom Mix
The proposed new construction project design will comprise 3
two-story buildings connected by two elevators. The project will
include a separate building (1,949 sf) comprising a managers
office, central laundry, and community room.
The project will
provide 128-parking spaces.
The proposed Occupancy Type is Housing for Older Persons (age
55+).
Project Rents:
The proposed development will target approximately 20% of the
units at 50% or below of area median income (AMI), and 80% at 60%
AMI. Rent excludes all utilities, yet will include trash removal.
PROPOSED PROJECT RENTS @ 50% AMI
Bedroom Mix
# of Units
Net Rent
Utility
Allowance*
Gross Rent
1BR/1b
3
$320
$130
$450
2BR/2b
10
$350
$166
$516
*Provided by applicant.
16
PROPOSED PROJECT RENTS @ 60% AMI
# of Units
Net Rent
Utility
Allowance*
1BR/1b
5
$320
$130
$450
2BR/2b
46
$350
$166
$516
Bedroom Mix
Gross Rent
*Provided by applicant.
The proposed development will not have any project base rental
assistant, nor private rental assistance.
Project Amenity Package:
The development will include the following amenity package:
Unit Amenities
-
range
microwave
disposal
smoke alarms
carpet
patio/balcony
central air
-
refrigerator w/icemaker
dish washer
cable ready
washer/dryer connections
mini-blinds
storage room
-
clubhouse/community room
computer center
internet wiring
putting green
equipped fitness room
Development Amenities
-
on-site management
picnic/grill area
gazebo
central laundry
equipped library
The estimated projected year that the Grace Crossing Apartment
development will be placed in service is mid to late 2012. The
first full year of occupancy is forecasted to be in 2013. Note:
The 2010 GA QAP states that the placed in service date can extend
to December, 2013.
Supportive Services Package*
- organized on-site social and recreational programs
* provided by management & community partners.
17
he site of the proposed
elderly
LIHTC
apartment
development is located off
West Jones Avenue, approximately
1 mile southwest of Downtown
SITE & NEIGHBORHOOD
Statesboro. The site is located
EVALUATION
within
the
Statesboro
city
limits. Specifically, the site
is located in Census Tract
9904.01, Census Block Group 3, and Census Block 3018. The site is
located within a QCT (Qualified Census Tract).
T
SECTION C
Street and highway accessibility are very good relative to the
site. Ready access is available from the site to the following:
major retail trade and service areas, employment opportunities,
local health care providers and area churches. All major facilities
within the PMA can be accessed within a 5 to 10 minute drive. At
the time of the market study, no significant infrastructure
development was in progress within the immediate vicinity of the
site.
Site Characteristics
The approximately 14.4-acre, rectangular shaped tract is wooded
and relatively flat. The site is considered to be marketable and
buildable. However, this assessment is subject to both environmental
and engineering studies. All public utility services are available
to the tract and excess capacity exists.
The site is not located within a 100-year flood plain. At the
time of the survey the subject site was zoned PUD - Planned Unit
Development and was in process of re-zoning in order to maintain its
current PUD zoning status. The surrounding land uses around the
site are detailed below:
SR20
Direction
Existing Land Use
North
Vacant, followed by Singlefamily Residential
Zoning
SR 20
East
Vacant, followed by Singlefamily Residential
South
Vacant
PUD
West
Vacant, followed by Singlefamily Residential
PUD
- Single-Family Dwelling
Source: Official Zoning Map of Statesboro, GA
18
SR 20
Neighborhood Description / Characteristics
The overall character of the neighborhood in the immediate
vicinity of the site can be defined predominantly as a mixture of:
vacant land use, and nearby single-family. At present, there are
several program assisted multi-family developments located within 2miles of the proposed site, including the local housing authority.
One of the program assisted multi-family developments that targets
the elderly is located within 2-miles of the subject. This property
is a 98-unit acquisition/rehab LIHTC elderly development that offers
100% PBRA, Statesboro Summit.
Directly north of the site is a small vacant area followed by
low to moderate income predominantly single-family residential
development. About .5 miles north is the southern portion of the
Downtown Statesboro central business district.
Directly south of the site is vacant land use. A portion of
the tract to the south is site of the future Bethany Homes Assisted
Living Facility.
Southeast of the site is a moderate to middle
class single-family subdivision. For the most part the neighborhood
is well maintained and very stable. Access to the Veterans Memorial
Parkway is available via Cypress Lake Road, 1.5-miles south.
Directly east of the site is a vacant tract that is presently
for sale. Further east is moderate income single-family development.
Directly west of the tract is wooded vacant land. About .7
miles southwest of the site along Country Club Road is high income,
low density, single-family development. About 1.5 miles southwest
near the intersection of Country Club Road and Veterans Memorial
Parkway are a pharmacy and an urgent care center.
The pictures on the following page are of the site and
surrounding land uses within the immediate vicinity of the site.
19
(1) Site off W Jones Ave,
northeast to southwest.
(2) From entrance into site,
east to west.
(3) From entrance into site,
west to east.
(4) Typical dwelling in
vicinity of site.
(5) Forest Heights Pharmacy,
1.5 miles southwest.
(6) Site of the future Bethany
Homes Assisted Living Fac.
20
21
Access to Services
The subject is accessible to major employers, shopping,
healthcare services, retail and social services, recreational areas,
and the local and regional highway system. (See Site and Facilities
Map, next page.)
Distances from the site to community services are exhibited
below:
Distance
from Subject
Points of Interest
Fire Station
.6
Access to US 25
.7
Bi-Lo Grocery
.9
Library
.9
Post Office
1.0
Downtown Statesboro
1.1
Bulloch County Health Department
1.2
Bulloch County Senior Center
1.3
Forest Heights Pharmacy
1.4
East Georgia Urgent Care Center
1.4
Access to Veterans Memorial Parkway
1.5
Harvey’s Grocery
2.0
Georgia Southern University
2.0
Statesboro Regional Mall
2.4
W almart Supercenter
2.7
East Georgia Regional Medical Center
2.8
Note: Distance from subject is in tenths of miles and are approximated.
22
23
Program Assisted Apartments in Statesboro - PMA
At present, there are 13 program assisted apartment complexes
located in the Statesboro PMA, along with the local housing
authority. Three of the properties target the elderly population
and 10 target the general population. At present, there are three
new construction LIHTC properties (two family; one elderly) in the
PMA and one acquisition-rehab LIHTC elderly property. In addition,
there is one USDA-RD Section 515 elderly property. A map (on the
next page) exhibits the program assisted properties located within
the Statesboro PMA in relation to the site.
Project Name
Program Type
Number of
Units
Distance
from Site
(in miles)
Laurel Pointe
LIHTC el
72
2.4
Ashton Statesboro (Summit)
LIHTC el
98
1.7
Wildwood Villas II
USDA-RD el
58
2.7
Statesboro Apts (Wildwood I)
USDA-RD fm
53
2.7
Little Lott Creek
LIHTC fm
72
.8
Madison Meadows
LIHTC fm
110
2.4
Sandy Hills
USDA-RD fm
48
3.1
Northside
USDA-RD fm
49
2.8
Twenty-Four East
USDA-RD fm
48
3.2
Fox Ridge
HUD 8 fm
100
3.0
Blakewood
HUD 8 fm
41
2.6
Eastview
USDA-RD fm
48
2.6
Morris Heights
HUD 8 fm
60
1.3
Statesboro Housing Authority
PHA
148
scattered
24
25
SUMMARY
The field visits for the site and surrounding market area were
on April 27, 28, and June 25, 2010.
The site inspector was Mr.
Jerry M. Koontz (of the firm Koontz & Salinger).
The overall character of the neighborhood in the immediate
vicinity of the site can be defined predominantly as a mixture of:
vacant land use and nearby single-family development.
Directly
southeast of the site, is a single-family neighborhood known as
Cromartie.
Low to moderate residential development is located
directly north of the tract. Directly southwest of the site is the
location of the tract for the proposed Bethany Assisted Living
Facility. Given the current area land use development and the fact
that the proposed site is only 1 mile south of Downtown Statesboro,
the proposed development is considered to be consistent with the
existing land uses within one mile of the proposed site. The site
is located in the southwestern portion of Statesboro, within the
city limits.
Access to the site is available off West Jones Avenue. West
Jones Avenue is a low density traveled road, with a speed limit of
30 miles per hour in the immediate vicinity of the site. Also, the
location of the site off West Jones Avenue does not present problems
of egress and ingress to the site.
The site offers good accessibility and linkages to area
services and facilities. The areas surrounding the site appeared to
be void of negative externalities including: noxious odors, close
proximity to cemeteries, high tension power lines, rail lines and
junk yards.
The site in relation to the subject and the surrounding roads
is very agreeable to signage, in particular to passing traffic along
West Jones Avenue.
Overall, the field research revealed the following strengths
and weaknesses of the subject in relation to subject marketability.
In the opinion of the analyst, the site of the subject is considered
appropriate as an elderly multi-family development.
SITE/SUBJECT ATTRIBUTES:
STRENGTHS
W EAKNESSES
Good accessibility to services, trade, and
health care
Good linkages to area road system
Nearby road speed and noise are acceptable
Surrounding land uses are acceptable
26
he definition of a market
area for any real estate use
SECTION D
is generally limited to the
geographic area from which
consumers
will consider the
MARKET AREA DESCRIPTION
available alternatives to be
relatively equal. This process
implicitly
and
explicitly
considers the location and proximity and scale of competitive
options. Frequently, both a primary and a secondary area are
geographically defined. This is an area where consumers will have
the greatest propensity to choose a specific product at a specific
location, and a secondary area from which consumers are less likely
to choose the product but the area will still generate significant
demand.
T
The field research process was used in order to establish the
geographic delineation of the Primary Market Area (PMA).
The
process included the recording of spatial activities and timedistance boundary analysis.
These were used to determine the
relationship of the location of the site and specific subject
property to other potential alternative geographic choices.
The
field research process was then reconciled with demographic data by
geography as well as local interviews with key respondents regarding
market specific input relating to market area delineation.
Primary Market Area
Based upon field research in Statesboro and a 5 to 10 mile
area, along with an assessment of: the competitive environment,
transportation and employment patterns, the site location and
physical, natural and political barriers - the Primary Market Area
(PMA) for the proposed multi-family development consists of the
following census tracts in Bulloch County:
9902-9908
(See Market Area Map)
Note: The PMA excluded the extreme northern and southern
portions of Bulloch County. The PMA is bounded as follows:
Distance from
Subject
Direction
Boundary
North
Northern portion of Bulloch County &
Screven County
6.5 - 11 miles
East
Effingham & Screven Counties
10 - 15 miles
South
Southern portion of Bulloch County
10.5 - 12.5miles
West
Candler & Evans Counties
8 - 11 miles
27
The PMA is located in the East-Central
Statesboro is centrally located within the PMA.
region
Georgia.
Statesboro is the most densely populated place within the PMA,
comprising the base for the PMA regarding employment opportunities,
finance, retail and wholesale trade, entertainment and health care
services. Overall, it represents almost 50% of the total population
within the PMA. Other than Statesboro, the only other incorporated
places within the PMA are: Brooklet, with a 2000 census population
of 1,113 and Register with a with a 2000 census population of 164.
With regard to the location of an independent living elderly
apartment complex, without deep subsidy rental assistance, the City
of Statesboro would be the most logical choice as a location of a
LIHTC elderly complex within the PMA and for that matter Bulloch
County as a whole. In this case the complex would not only serve
Statesboro, but the PMA and County as a whole, given the lack of
alternative choices.
Secondary Market Area
The Secondary Market Area (SMA) consists of that area beyond
the Primary Market Area. Demand for the development from the SMA is
considered to be good to very good. Typically, 5% to 25% of program
assisted elderly apartment complexes are occupied by tenants from
outside the PMA. It is estimated that the subject will attract 15%
to 20% of its tenant base from outside the PMA. Note: The demand
methodology in this market study could utilize a GA-DCA market study
guideline factor of 15%. However, in order to remain conservative
and account for the current PMA delineation the SMA factor will be
capped at 10%.
Demand for the subject will predominantly be from: (1) existing
renter-occupied elderly households, (2) elderly homeowners who “move
down” from an owner position to a renter and (3) new elderly renter
household formations. Another source of demand will be from non
tenured households currently residing with others, primarily
relatives, including grown children, and not presently located
within a group quarters setting.
28
29
ables 1 through 10
exhibit indicators of
trends
in
total
population and household
growth, as well as for
population and households
and 55 and 62 and older.
T
SECTION E
COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
Population Trends
Table 1, exhibits the change in total population in Statesboro,
the Statesboro PMA, and Bulloch County between 2000 and 2014. Table
3, exhibits the change in elderly population age 55 and over (the
age restriction limit for the subject), as well as for population
age 62 and over, in the Statesboro PMA and Bulloch County between
2000 and 2014. The year 2013 is estimated to be the first year of
availability for occupancy of the subject property, as noted on page
7 of 18 within the GA-DCA 2010 Market Study Manual. The year 2000
has been established as the base year for the purpose of estimating
new household growth demand, by age and tenure, in accordance with
the 2010 GA-DCA Market Study Manual.
The PMA exhibited very significant total population gains
between 2000 and 2010, at approximately 2% per year. Population
gains over the next several years, (2010-2014) are forecasted for
the PMA at a comparable rate of growth, represented by a rate of
change approximating 1.9% to 2% per year.
A significant minority of the population in the PMA is located
within the City of Statesboro. It is estimated that almost 50% of
the PMA population is located within the City of Statesboro.
The PMA exhibited significant to very significant population
gains for population age 55+ between 2000 and 2010, at around 2.65%
per year.
Population
gains over the next several years are
forecasted for the PMA for the 55 and over age group continuing at
a very significant rate of increase, with a forecasted rate of
growth at approximately 3% to 3.5% per year.
The PMA exhibited significant population gains for population
age 62+ between 2000 and 2010, at around 2.3% per year. Population
gains over the next several years are forecasted for the PMA for the
62 and over age group at a very significant rate of increase with a
forecasted rate of growth at between 3.5% to 3.75% per year.
Population gains are forecasted in both the 55 and 62 and over
age groups for the year 20101 and beyond. The projected increase is
not owing to a significant increase in elderly in-migration into the
PMA, but instead owing to significant age in-place as the “war baby
generation, (1940-1945)” and the beginning of the “baby boom
generation, (1946 to 1950)” begin to enter into the empty nester and
retirement population segments in large numbers.
30
Population Projection Methodology:
The forecasts for both total and elderly were interpolated
between 2010 and 2014, for a 2013 estimate.
The Ribbon Demographics HISTA data was used in the forecast of
elderly household population, by persons per household, tenure and
income. In addition, the Georgia Office of Planning & Budget 2015
forecast and the ESRI data were used as a cross check to the HISTA
forecasts, but not in lieu of the other forecasts.
Sources: (1) 1990 and 2000 US Census, and 2001 - 2009 US Census estimates.
(2) Georgia 2010-2015 Residential Population Project of Georgia
Counties, Source: Georgia Governor’s Office of Planning and
Budget (as of December, 2004).
(3) ESRI 2006 and 2011 Projections, 18 th Editions.
(4) Claritas 2009 and 2014 HISTA Projections, Ribbon Demographics.
31
Table 1
Total Population Trends and Projections:
Statesboro, Statesboro PMA and Bulloch County
Statesboro
Year
Population
Total
Change
Percent
Annual
Change
Percent
-------
2000
22,698
------
-------
------
2010
28,045
+ 5,347
+ 23.56
+
535
+ 2.36
2013
29,732
+ 1,687
+
6.02
+
562
+ 2.01
2014
30,295
+
+
1.89
+
563
+ 1.89
2000
46,092
------
-------
------
-------
2010
57,378
+11,286
+ 24.49
+1,129
+ 2.45
2013*
60,934
+ 3,556
+
6.20
+1,185
+ 2.07
2014
62,119
+ 1,185
+
1.94
+1,185
+ 1.94
2000
55,983
------
-------
------
-------
2010
69,819
+13,836
+ 24.71
+1,384
+ 2.47
2013
74,171
+ 4,352
+
6.23
+1,451
+ 2.08
2014
75,622
+ 1,451
+
1.96
+1,451
+ 1.96
563
Statesboro PMA
Bulloch County
* 2013 - Estimated year that project is placed in service.
Calculations - Koontz and Salinger.
32
July, 2010.
Table 2 exhibits the change in population by age group in the
Statesboro PMA between 2000 and 2014.
Table 2
Population by Age Groups: Statesboro PMA, 2000 - 2014
2000
Number
2000
Percent
2014
Number
2014
Percent
Change
Number
Change
Percent
Age Group
0 -
4
2,585
5.61
3,832
6.17
+1,247
+ 48.24
5 - 17
7,074
15.35
8,775
14.13
+1,701
+ 24.05
18 - 24
13,757
29.85
15,862
25.53
+2,105
+ 15.30
25 - 44
10,948
23.75
16,147
25.99
+5,199
+ 47.49
45 - 54
4,516
9.80
6,107
9.83
+1,591
+ 35.23
55 - 64
3,039
6.59
5,223
8.41
+2,184
+ 71.87
65 +
4,173
9.05
6,173
9.94
+2,000
+ 47.93
Sources: 2000 Census of Population, Georgia.
Claritas 2014 HISTA Projections, Ribbon Demographics.
Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
Table 2 revealed that population increased in all of the
displayed age groups in the PMA between 2000 and 2014. The increase
is very significant in the primary renter age group: of 55 and over,
at almost 37%.
Overall, a significant portion of the total PMA
population is in the target property age eligible group of 55 and
over, representing approximately 18.5% of the total population.
Between 2010 and 2013 total population is projected to increase
in the PMA at around 2% per year. This is considered to be a very
significant
rate
of
growth and will lead
to
additional
residential
and
commercial development
within the PMA between
2010 and 2013, subject
to a reversal in the
current
“down”
National
and
State
economic
conditions
sometime in mid to
late 2010. The figure
to the right presents
a graphic display of
the numeric change in
population in the PMA
between 2000 and 2014.
33
Table 3, exhibits the change in elderly population age 55 and
over (the age restriction limit for the subject), as well as for
population age 62 and over, in the Statesboro PMA and Bulloch County
between 2000 and 2014.
Table 3
Elderly Population (Age 55+ & Age 62+) Trends and Projections:
Statesboro PMA and Bulloch County
Statesboro PMA (Age 55+)
2000
7,212
------
-------
------
2010
9,810
+2,598
+ 36.02
+
260
+ 3.60
2013*
11,000
+1,190
+ 12.13
+
397
+ 4.04
2014
11,396
+
+
+
396
+ 3.60
-------
396
3.60
-------
Statesboro PMA (Age 62+)
2000
4,908
------
-------
------
2010
6,394
+1,486
+ 30.28
+
149
+ 3.03
2013*
7,199
+
805
+ 12.59
+
268
+ 4.20
2014
7,467
+
268
+
+
268
+ 3.72
-------
3.72
Bulloch Co. (Age 55+)
2000
9,111
------
-------
------
2010
12,596
+3,485
+ 38.25
+
349
+ 3.83
2013
14,210
+1,614
+ 12.81
+
538
+ 4.27
2014
14,748
+
+
+
538
+ 3.79
-------
538
3.79
Bulloch Co. (Age 62+)
2000
6,164
------
-------
------
2010
8,143
+1,979
+ 32.11
+
198
+ 3.21
2013
9,215
+1,072
+ 13.16
+
357
+ 4.39
2014
9,572
+
+
+
357
+ 3.87
357
3.87
* 2013 - Estimated year that project is placed in service.
Calculations - Koontz and Salinger.
34
July, 2010.
HOUSEHOLD TRENDS & CHARACTERISTICS
Table 4 exhibits the change in elderly households (age 55 and
over and age 62 and over) in the Statesboro PMA between 2000 and 2014.
The significant increase in household formations age 55+ and 62+ in
the PMA has continued over a 10 year period and reflects the recent
population trends and near term forecasts.
The forecast for group quarters is based on trends in the last
two censuses.
In addition, it includes information collected from
local sources as to conditions and changes in group quarters’ supply
since the 2000 census was taken.
Table 4
Household Formations Age 55+ & 62+: 2000 to 2014
Statesboro PMA
Year /
Place
Total
Population
Population
In Group
Quarters
Population
In
Households
Persons
Per
Household 1
Total
Households 2
(Age 55+)
2000
7,212
383
6,829
1.4730
4,636
2010
9,810
450
9,360
1.5289
6,122
2013
11,000
475
10,525
1.5318
6,871
2014
11,396
485
10,911
1.5322
7,121
2000
4,908
383
4,525
1.3733
3,295
2010
6,394
450
5,944
1.4619
4,066
2013
7,199
475
6,724
1.4704
4,573
2014
7,467
485
6,982
1.4724
4,742
(Age 62+)
Sources: Claritas based 2009 and 2014 HISTA Projections, Ribbon Demographics.
2000 Census of Population, Georgia.
Calculations: Data was interpolated between 2010 and 2014 and estimated for 2013.
Koontz & Salinger. July, 2010.
1
Continuation of the 1990 to 2000 persons per household rate of change.
2
Population in Households divided by persons per unit count.
35
Tables 5A and 5B exhibit households age 55 and over and age 62
and over, respectively, in the Statesboro PMA by owner-occupied and
renter-occupied tenure.
The 2000 to 2014 tenure trend revealed an increase in renteroccupied tenure in the PMA for both 55+ and 62+.
Table 5A
Households by Tenure: Age 55+
Statesboro PMA
Year/
Place
Total
Households
Owner
Occupied
Percent
Renter
Occupied
Percent
PMA
2000
4,636
3,687
79.53
949
20.47
2010
6,122
4,757
77.70
1,365
22.30
2013
6,871
5,265
76.63
1,606
23.37
2014
7,121
5,435
76.32
1,686
23.68
Table 5B
Households by Tenure: Age 62+
Statesboro PMA
Year/
Place
Total
Households
Owner
Occupied
Percent
Renter
Occupied
Percent
PMA
2000
3,295
2,589
78.57
706
21.43
2010
4,066
3,160
77.72
906
22.28
2013
4,573
3,507
76.69
1,066
23.31
2014
4,742
3,622
76.38
1,120
23.62
Sources: 2000 Census of Population, Georgia.
Claritas based 2009 and 2014 HISTA Projections, Ribbon Demographics.
Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
36
The figure below exhibits homes in Bulloch County, between 2006
and 2007.
Note: 2008 and 2009 data are not available (from this
source). Between 2006 and 2007 most home sales were in the vicinity
of $70,000 to $130,000.
Source: www.city-data.com/county/Bulloch_County-GA.html
37
HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS & CHARACTERISTICS
One of the first discriminating factors in residential analysis
is income eligibility and affordability.
This is particularly of
importance when analyzing the need and demand for program assisted
multi-family housing.
A professional market study must distinguish between gross demand
and effective demand.
Effective demand is represented by those
elderly households that can both qualify for and afford to rent the
proposed multi-family development.
In order to quantify this
effective demand, the income distribution of the PMA households age
55+ and 62+ must be analyzed.
Establishing the income factors to identify which households are
eligible for a specific housing product requires the definition of the
limits of the target income range. The lower limit of the eligible
range is generally determined by affordability, i.e., the proposed
gross rents, average minimum social security payments, and/or the
availability of deep subsidy rental assistance (RA) for USDA-RD, PHA
and HUD Section 8 developments.
The estimate of the upper income limit is based upon the most
recent set of HUD Median Income Guidelines for two person households
(the maximum household size allowable for the estimation of elderly in
the GA-DCA Market Study Guidelines) in Bulloch County, Georgia at 50%
and 60% of the area median income (AMI).
For market-rate projects or components of mixed income projects,
the entire range is estimated using typical expenditure patterns.
While a household may spend as little for rent as required to occupy
an acceptable unit, households tend to move into more expensive
housing with better features as their incomes increase.
In this
analysis, the market-rate limits are set at an expenditure pattern of
25% to 45% of household income.
Tables 6A and 6B exhibit owner-occupied households, by age 55+,
and by income group, in the Statesboro PMA in 2000, forecasted to 2009
and 2014. Tables 7A and 7B exhibit renter-occupied households, by age
55+, and by income group, in the Statesboro PMA in 2000, forecasted to
2009 and 2014.
Tables 8A and 8B exhibit owner-occupied households, by age 62+,
and by income group, in the Statesboro PMA in 2000, forecasted to 2009
and 2014. Tables 9A and 9B exhibit renter-occupied households, by age
62+, and by income group, in the Statesboro PMA in 2000, forecasted to
2009 and 2014.
The projection methodology is based on Claritas forecasts for
households, by tenure, by age and by income group for the year 2009
and 2014, with a base year data set of 2000 (US Census).
A 2013
estimate was interpolated based on the trend between the 2009 and 2014
data sets and utilized within the quantitative demand methodology.
Note: The data set used in Tables 6 thru 9 is from Claritas and Ribbon
Demographics.
38
Tables 6A and 6B exhibit owner-occupied households age 55+, by
income in the Statesboro PMA in 2000, estimated to 2009, and projected
to 2014.
Table 6A
Statesboro PMA: Owner-Occupied Households Age 55+, by Income Groups
Households by Income
2000
Number
2000
Percent
2009
Number
2009
Percent
Under $10,000
501
13.59
513
11.18
10,000 - 20,000
511
13.86
515
11.23
20,000 - 30,000
654
17.74
654
14.26
30,000 - 40,000
427
11.58
559
12.19
40,000 - 50,000
315
8.54
430
9.37
50,000 - 60,000
196
5.32
295
6.43
$60,000 and over
1,083
29.37
1,621
35.34
Total
3,687
100%
4,587
100%
Table 6B
Statesboro PMA: Owner-Occupied Households Age 55+, by Income Groups
Households by Income
2009
Number
2009
Percent
2014
Number
2014
Percent
Under $10,000
513
11.18
579
10.65
10,000 - 20,000
515
11.23
576
10.60
20,000 - 30,000
654
14.26
724
13.32
30,000 - 40,000
559
12.19
701
12.90
40,000 - 50,000
430
9.37
472
8.68
50,000 - 60,000
295
6.43
370
6.81
$60,000 and over
1,621
35.34
2,013
37.04
Total
4,587
100%
5,435
100%
Sources: 2000 Census of Population, Georgia.
Claritas, HISTA Data, Ribbon Demographics.
Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
39
Tables 7A and 7B exhibit renter-occupied households age 55+, by
income in the Statesboro PMA in 2000, estimated to 2009, and projected
to 2014.
Table 7A
Statesboro PMA: Renter-Occupied Household Age 55+, by Income Groups
Households by Income
2000
Number
2000
Percent
2009
Number
2009
Percent
Under $10,000
366
38.57
456
35.49
10,000 - 20,000
253
26.66
326
25.37
20,000 - 30,000
151
15.91
180
14.01
30,000 - 40,000
44
4.64
85
6.61
40,000 - 50,000
50
5.27
83
6.46
50,000 - 60,000
28
2.95
47
3.66
60,000 +
57
6.01
108
8.40
949
100%
1,285
100%
Total
Table 7B
Statesboro PMA: Renter-Occupied Household Age 55+, by Income Groups
Households by Income
2009
Number
2009
Percent
2014
Number
2014
Percent
Under $10,000
456
35.49
584
34.64
10,000 - 20,000
326
25.37
419
24.85
20,000 - 30,000
180
14.01
223
13.23
30,000 - 40,000
85
6.61
131
7.77
40,000 - 50,000
83
6.46
107
6.35
50,000 - 60,000
47
3.46
71
4.21
108
8.40
151
8.96
1,285
100%
1,686
100%
60,000 +
Total
Sources: 2000 Census of Population, Georgia.
Claritas, HISTA Data, Ribbon Demographics.
Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
40
Tables 8A and 8B exhibit owner-occupied households age 62+, by
income in the Statesboro PMA in 2000, estimated to 2009, and projected
to 2014.
Table 8A
Statesboro PMA: Owner-Occupied Households Age 62+, by Income Groups
Households by Income
2000
Number
2000
Percent
2009
Number
2009
Percent
Under $10,000
401
15.49
382
12.55
10,000 - 20,000
419
16.18
411
13.50
20,000 - 30,000
510
19.70
485
15.93
30,000 - 40,000
318
12.28
415
13.63
40,000 - 50,000
211
8.15
282
9.26
50,000 - 60,000
158
6.10
208
6.83
$60,000 and over
572
22.09
862
28.31
2,589
100%
3,045
100%
Total
Table 8B
Statesboro PMA: Owner-Occupied Households Age 62+, by Income Groups
Households by Income
2009
Number
2009
Percent
2014
Number
2014
Percent
Under $10,000
382
12.55
431
11.90
10,000 - 20,000
411
13.50
457
12.62
20,000 - 30,000
485
15.93
539
14.88
30,000 - 40,000
415
13.63
511
14.11
40,000 - 50,000
282
9.26
321
8.86
50,000 - 60,000
208
6.83
264
7.29
$60,000 and over
862
28.31
1,099
30.34
3,845
100%
3,622
100%
Total
Sources: 2000 Census of Population, Georgia.
Claritas, HISTA Data, Ribbon Demographics.
Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
41
Tables 9A and 9B exhibit renter-occupied households age 62+, by
income in the Statesboro PMA in 2000, estimated to 2009, and projected
to 2014.
Table 9A
Statesboro PMA: Renter-Occupied Household Age 62+, by Income Groups
Households by Income
2000
Number
2000
Percent
2009
Number
2009
Percent
Under $10,000
293
41.50
340
39.91
10,000 - 20,000
202
28.61
232
27.23
20,000 - 30,000
113
16.01
116
13.62
30,000 - 40,000
40
5.67
63
7.39
40,000 - 50,000
35
4.96
50
5.87
50,000 - 60,000
13
1.84
10
1.17
60,000 +
10
1.42
41
4.81
706
100%
852
100%
Total
Table 9B
Statesboro PMA: Renter-Occupied Household Age 62+, by Income Groups
Households by Income
2009
Number
2009
Percent
2014
Number
2014
Percent
Under $10,000
340
39.91
434
38.75
10,000 - 20,000
232
27.23
287
25.63
20,000 - 30,000
116
13.62
145
12.95
30,000 - 40,000
63
7.39
88
7.86
40,000 - 50,000
50
5.87
70
6.25
50,000 - 60,000
10
1.17
31
2.77
60,000 +
41
4.81
65
5.80
852
100%
1,120
100%
Total
Sources: 2000 Census of Population, Georgia.
Claritas, HISTA Data, Ribbon Demographics.
Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
42
Table 10
Households Age 55 and Over, by Tenure, by Person Per Household
Statesboro PMA, 2000 - 2014
Households
Owner
2000
2014
Renter
Change
% 2014
2000
2014
Change
% 2014
1 Person
1,255
1,658
+
403
30.51%
610
1,068
+
458
63.35%
2 Person
1,793
2,680
+
887
49.31%
239
340
+
101
20.17%
3 Person
356
623
+
267
11.46%
30
78
+
48
4.63%
4 Person
171
304
+
133
5.59%
57
133
+
76
7.89%
5 + Person
112
170
+
58
3.13%
13
67
+
54
3.97%
1,686
+
737
Total
3,687
5,435
+1,748
100%
949
100%
Sources: 2000 Census of Population, Georgia.
Claritas based 2014 HISTA Projection, Ribbon Demographics.
Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
Table 10 indicates that in 2014 approximately 83.5% of the
renter-occupied households age 55 and over in the PMA contain 1 to 2
persons (the target group by household size).
Table 10 indicates that in 2014 approximately 80% of the owneroccupied households age 55 and over in the PMA contain 1 and 2 persons
(the target group by household size).
A significant increase in renter-occupied households by size was
exhibited by 1 and 2 person households. A moderate increase in renteroccupied households by size was exhibited by 3 person households. One
person elderly households are typically attracted to both 1 and 2
bedroom rental units and 2 person elderly households are typically
attracted to two bedroom units, and to a much lesser degree three
bedroom units.
43
he economic trends reflect the
ability of the area to create
and sustain growth, and job
formation is typically the primary
motivation for positive net inmigration.
T
SECTION F
ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT
TRENDS
Tables 11 through 17 exhibit
labor force trends by: (1) civilian
labor force employment, (2) covered employment, (3) changes in covered
employment by sector, and (4) changes in average annual weekly wages,
for Bulloch County. Also, exhibited are the major employers for the
immediate labor market area. A summary analysis is provided at the
end of this section.
Table 11
Civilian Labor Force and
Employment Trends, Bulloch County:
2000, 2008 and 2009
2000
2008
2009
Civilian Labor
Force
27,411
33,113
33,044
Employment
26,367
31,151
30,150
1,044
1,962
2,894
Unemployment
Rate of
Unemployment
3.8%
5.9%
8.8%
Table 12
Change in Employment, Bulloch County
#
Total
Years
#
Annual*
%
Total
2000 - 2008
+ 4,784
+ 532
+18.14
2008 - 2009
- 1,001
Na
- 3.21
* Rounded
%
Annual*
+ 2.02
Na - Not applicable
Sources: Georgia Labor Force Estimates, 2000 - 2009.
of Labor, Workforce Information Analysis.
Koontz and Salinger.
July, 2010.
44
Georgia Department
Na
Employment Trends
Table 13
CLF Employment and Rates of Unemployment, 2000 - 2010, Bulloch County
______________________________________________________________________________
Number
Change Over
Unemployment
Year
Employed
Previous Year
Rate
_____________________________________________________________________
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
26,367
26,424
27,105
27,744
27,830
29,049
30,201
30,868
31,151
30,150
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
----57
681
639
86
1,219
1,152
667
283
1,001
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.0
4.5
4.6
4.2
4.4
5.9
8.8
2010 (1)
29,437
----10.2
2010 (2)
30,625
+ 1,278
9.8
2010 (3)
30,432
193
9.5
2010 (4)
31,106
+
674
8.6
2010 (5)
30,944
162
9.0
______________________________________________________________________________
Table 14
Covered Employment, 2000 - 2009, Bulloch County
______________________________________________________________________________
Number
Change Over
Year
Employed
Previous Year
_____________________________________________________________________
2000
21,203
----2001
21,040
163
2002
21,291
+
251
2003
21,619
+
328
2004
21,385
234
2005
22,302
+
917
2006
22,933
+
631
2007
23,505
+
572
2008
23,579
+
74
2009
22,703
876
______________________________________________________________________________
Sources: Georgia Labor Force Estimates, 2000 - 2010.
of Labor, Workforce Information Analysis.
Koontz and Salinger.
July, 2010.
45
Georgia Department
Table 15
Average Monthly Covered Employment by Sector,
Bulloch County, 2008 and 2009
Year
Total
Con
Mfg
T
2008
23,579
1,679
2,010
2009
22,703
1,478
08-09
# Ch.
-
876
- 3.7
08-09
% Ch.
FIRE
HCSS
G
3,972
1,000
2,404
6,362
1,650
3,778
892
2,479
6,389
- 201
- 360
- 194
- 108
+ 75
+
-12.0
-17.9
- 4.9
-10.8
+3.1
+ 0.4
27
Note: Con - Construction; Mfg - Manufacturing; T - Retail and Wholesale Trade;
FIRE - Finance, Insurance and Real Estate; HCSS - Health Care and
Social Services; G - Federal, State & Local Government
Figure 1 exhibits employment by sector in Bulloch County in 2009.
The top four employment sectors in the County are: manufacturing,
trade, government and service.
The forecast for 2010, is for the
manufacturing sector to decline and the trade sector to stabilize.
Sources: Georgia Department of Labor, Workforce Information Analysis,
Covered Employment, 2008 and 2009.
Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
46
Table 16, exhibits average annual weekly wages in 2008 and 2009
in the major employment sectors in Bulloch County. It is estimated
that the majority of workers in the service and trade sectors in 2010
will have average weekly wages between $400 and $700.
Table 16
Average Annual Weekly Wages, 2008 and 2009
Bulloch County
Employment
Sector
% Numerical
Change
Annual Rate
of Change
2008
2009
Total
$ 557
$ 570
+
13
+ 2.3
Construction
$ 644
$ 664
+
20
+ 3.1
Manufacturing
$ 673
$ 653
-
20
- 3.0
Wholesale Trade
$ 659
$ 709
+
50
+ 7.6
Retail Trade
$ 384
$ 391
+
7
+ 1.8
Transportation &
Warehouse
$ 643
$ 629
-
14
- 2.2
Finance
$ 826
$ 813
-
13
- 1.6
Real Estate
Leasing
$ 473
$ 415
-
58
-12.3
Health Care
Services
$ 669
$ 722
+
53
+ 7.9
Hospitality
$ 197
$ 210
+
13
+ 6.6
Federal
Government
$ 938
$ 953
+
15
+ 1.6
State Government
$ 708
$ 730
+
22
+ 3.1
Local Government
$ 603
$ 605
+
2
+ 0.3
Sources: Georgia Department of Labor, Workforce Information Analysis,
Covered Employment, Wages and Contributions, 2008 and 2009.
Koontz and Salinger.
July, 2010.
47
Major Employers
The major employers in Statesboro and Bulloch County are listed
in Table 17.
Table 17
M ajor Employers
Firm
Product/Service
Employees
Industrial
Briggs & Stratton
Lawn Mower Engines
550
Viracon
Glass Fabrication
620
The Sack Company
Heavy Commercial Construction
450
Statesboro Publishing
Newspaper Printing
103
Braswell
Food Processing
99
W M Sheppard
Lumber
97
Brodie International
Flow Meters
71
Howard Company
Lumber
74
Loxcreen Company
Plastics
72
Nash Finch
Food Distribution
67
The George Anne
Publishing
75
Non Industrial
Georgia Southern University
Education
1,923
Bulloch County
School System
1,450
East Georgia Regional
Medical Center
750
Walmart Supercenter
Retail Trade
623
Walmart
Distribution
493
Bulloch County
Government
361
City of Statesboro
Government
284
Ogeechee Technical College
Education
250
Lowe’s
Retail Trade
164
Belk of Statesboro
Retail Trade
100
Farmers Merchant Bank
Finance
83
Sea Island Bank
Finance
80
Source: 2009 Bulloch County Industrial Guide, Development Authority of Bulloch
County, (912) 764-6111.
48
SUMMARY
The economic situation for Bulloch County is statistically
represented by employment activity, both in workers and jobs. As
represented in Tables 11-15, Bulloch County experienced moderate to
significant employment gains between 2000 and 2008. Over the last
year the decrease in employment in Bulloch County was significant,
owing primarily to declines in the manufacturing and trade employment
sectors. Thus far in 2010, the negative trend appears to have
stabilized.
As represented in Figure 1 (and Table 12), between 2000 and 2008,
the average increase in employment was approximately 530 workers or a
little over 2% per year. The rate of employment loss between 2008 and
2009, was very significant at approximately -3.2%, representing a net
loss of around 1,000 workers. The rate of employment change into 2010,
is forecasted to remain negative, albeit at a reduced rate of decline.
It is estimated that presently, the majority of the firms in continuing
operation in the county are operating with a workforce size that is
appropriate to levels of current production demand.
Monthly unemployment rates in 2009 were among the highest
exhibited in over 10-years in Bulloch County, ranging between 7.9% and
9.9%, with an overall estimate of 8.8%. These rates of unemployment
for the local economy are reflective of Bulloch County participating
in the recent State, National, and Global recession and continuing
period of slow to very slow recovery growth. The recession was severe.
Recent estimates and forecasts call for a bottom in unemployment losses
occurring somewhere between early 2010 to as late as mid 2010, with the
reversal process beginning in 2010 and growth beginning somewhere in
mid 2010. However, monthly unemployment rates are forecasted to remain
high in the vicinity of 9% or greater, and are expected to be
comparable to the nation as a whole.
49
The Statesboro-Bulloch County local economy is very well
diversified, with the major sectors of economy comprised of: (1)
Georgia Southern University, (2) local government and education, (3)
a sizable service and trade sector, (4) a healthcare sector that serves
a regional market, and (5) agri-business.
Approximately 80% of the area workforce lives and works in Bulloch
County. Other than Bulloch County the majority of the county residents
that commute out of county go to Chatham County, which is located
directly southeast of Bulloch County, and is part of the Savannah Metro
Area labor force market. The two employment centers are connected by
I-16.
Local Economy - Relative to Subject & Impact on Housing Demand
Very recent State and National economic indicators are not overly
negative for Bulloch County in the short term. The local economy
appears to be on the upswing at a rate much greater than many other
rural markets in East-Central Georgia. According to the President of
the local chamber of commerce, Statesboro and Bulloch County are likely
to bounce back from the recent recession quicker that other adjacent
rural counties owing to its local economic diversification.
Both
Georgia Southern University and the East Georgia Regional Medical
Center provide a strong economic base for the local economy and
compliment the area’s growing retail trade and service business growth.
It is believed that once the recession fully subsides, very likely
in early to mid-2010, Statesboro and Bulloch County are well positioned
to benefit from an expanding economy, given: (1) the regional target
market of its local healthcare sector, (2) the location of Georgia
Southern, and (3) the fact that the local development authority is
targeting in-state and out-of-state manufacturers in order to further
diversify the local employment base. At present, it was reported that
several news announcements are pending regarding new manufacturing
firms locating to Bulloch County, and existing firms expanding.
Source: Ms. Peggy Chapman, President, Statesboro-Bulloch Chamber of Commerce and
Development Authority, (912) 489-9115.
In addition, Bulloch County will continue to become a destination
point for (1) working class population from the surrounding rural
counties owing to the size of the local manufacturing and service
sector economic base and (2) the aging baby boomer population in the
State, as well as those individuals from out-of State seeking a
retirement location. Note: Several of the existing LIHTC apartment
managers (both elderly and family properties) stated that a number of
their current tenants came from out of county and out of state
locations.
A map of the major employment concentrations in Statesboro is
exhibited on the next page.
50
51
his analysis examines
the
area
market
SECTION G
demand in terms of a
specified GA-DCA demand
methodology.
This
PROJECT-SPECIFIC
incorporates
several
DEMAND ANALYSIS
sources of income eligible
demand, including demand
from new renter household
growth and demand from
existing elderly renter households already in the Statesboro PMA
market.
T
Note: All elements of the demand methodology will segmented by age
(elderly 55 and over) and income, owing to the availability of detailed
age 55+ income by tenure data.
This methodology develops an effective market demand comprising
eligible demand segments based on household characteristics and typical
demand sources.
It evaluates the required penetration of this
effective demand pool.
The section also includes estimates of
reasonable absorption of the proposed units. The demand analysis is
premised upon an estimated projected year that the subject will be
placed in service of 2013.
In this section, the effective project size is 64-units.
Throughout the demand forecast process, income qualification is based
on the distribution estimates derived in Tables 6 and 7 from the
previous section of the report.
Subsequent to the derivation of the annual demand estimate, the
project is considered in the context of the current market conditions.
This assesses the size of the proposed project compared to the existing
population, including factors of tenure and income qualification. This
indicates the proportion of the occupied housing stock that the project
would represent and gives an indication of the scale of the proposed
complex in the market. This does not represent potential demand, but
can provide indicators of the validity of the demand estimates and the
expected capture rates.
The demand analysis will address the impact on demand from
existing and proposed like kind competitive supply.
In this case
discriminated by age and income.
Finally, the potential impact of the proposed project on the
housing market supply is evaluated, particularly the impact on other
like-kind assisted elderly apartment projects in the market area.
52
Income Threshold Parameters
This market study focused upon the following target population
regarding income parameters:
(1) - Occupied by households at 60 percent or below of area
median income.
(2) - Projects must meet the person per unit imputed
income requirements of the Low Income Housing
Tax Credit, as amended in 1990. Thus, for
purposes of estimating rents, developers should
assume no more than the following: (a) For
efficiencies and one bedrooms, 1 person; (b) For
units with one or more separate bedrooms, 1.5
persons for each separate bedroom. (Note that
estimated rents must be net of utility
allowances.)
(3) - The proposed development be available to Section 8
voucher holders.
(4) - The 2010 HUD Income Guidelines were used.
(5) - 0% of the units will be set aside as market rate with
no income restrictions.
Analyst Note: The subject will comprise 8 one and 56 two-bedroom
units. The recommended maximum number of people per
unit (for elderly designation) is:
1BR - 1 and 2 persons
2BR - 2 persons
Analyst Note: As long as the unit in demand is income qualified
there is no minimum number of people per unit.
It is assumed that the target group for the proposed
elderly development (by household size) will be one
and two persons. Given the intended subject
targeting by age, only household sizes of 1 and 2
persons were utilized in the determination of the
income ranges, by AMI.
The proposed development will target approximately 20% of the
units at 50% or below of area median income (AMI), and 80% at 60% AMI.
The lower portion of the target income range is set by the
proposed subject 1BR and 2BR rents at 50% and 60% AMI.
53
It is estimated that households at the subject will spend between
30% and 45% of income for gross housing expenses, including utilities
and maintenance. Recent Consumer Expenditure Surveys (including the
most recent) indicate that the average cost paid by renter households
is around 36% of gross income. Given the subject property intended
target group it is estimated that the target LIHTC income group will
spend between 25% and 50% of income to rent.
GA-DCA has set the
estimate for elderly applications at 40%.
The proposed 1BR net rent at both 50% and 60% AMI is $320. The
estimated utility costs is $130. (Source: Applicant) The proposed 1BR
gross rent is $450. The lower income limit at both 50% and 60% AMI
based on a rent to income ratio of 40% is established at $13,500.
The proposed 2BR net rent at both 50% and 60% AMI is $350. The
estimated utility costs is $166. (Source: Applicant) The proposed 2BR
gross rent is $516. The lower income limit at both 50% and 60% AMI
based on a rent to income ratio of 40% is established at $15,480.
The AMI at 50% and 60% for 1 and 2 person households in Bulloch
County, GA follows:
1 Person 2 Person -
50%
AMI
60%
AMI
$18,800
$21,450
$22,560
$25,740
Source: 2010 HUD Median Income Guidelines.
The overall income range for the targeting of income eligible
households at 50% AMI is $13,500 to $21,450.
The overall income range for the targeting of income eligible
households at 60% AMI is $13,500 to $25,740.
54
SUMMARY
Target Income Range - Subject Property - by Income Targeting Scenario
50% AMI
The overall Target Income Range for the proposed subject property
targeting households at 50% AMI is $13,500 to $21,450.
It is projected that in 2013 approximately 9.5% of the elderly
owner-occupied households age 55+ in the PMA were in the subject
property 50% AMI LIHTC target income group of $13,500 to $21,450.
It is projected that in 2013 approximately 18.5% of the elderly
renter-occupied households age 55+ in the PMA were in the subject
property 50% AMI LIHTC target income group of $13,500 to $21,450.
60% AMI
The overall Target Income Range for the proposed subject property
targeting households at 60% AMI is $13,500 to $25,740.
It is projected that in 2013 approximately 15% of the elderly
owner-occupied households age 55+ in the PMA were in the subject
property 60% AMI LIHTC target income group of $13,500 to $25,740.
It is projected that in 2013 approximately 24% of the elderly
renter-occupied households age 55+ in the PMA were in the subject
property 60% AMI LIHTC target income group of $13,500 to $25,740.
Adjustments
In order to adjust for income overlap between the 50% and 60% AMI
income segments several adjustments were made resulting in the
following discrete estimates/percentages of household age 55+, within
the 50% and 60% AMI income ranges:
Owner-Occupied
50% AMI
60% AMI
5.0%
10.0%
Renter-Occupied
8.5%
15.5%
55
Reconciliation of Net Rents
The survey of the competitive environment (which included local
real estate professionals) revealed the following market based findings
regarding net rents. Figure 1 below exhibits the estimated median
conventional (street) net rents by bedroom type in relation to the
proposed subject property net rents at 50% AMI, and 60% AMI.
Data Set
Bedroom Type
1BR/1b
2BR/2b
Subject Rents at
50% AMI
60% AMI
Street Rent*
$450
$550
$320
$350
$320
$350
* median net rent
Figure 1, reveals that the proposed subject 1BR net rent at both
50%
and
60%
AMI
is
approximately
29%
less
than
the
comparable/competitive 1BR market rate net rent. The proposed subject
2BR/2b net rent at both 50% and 60% AMI is approximately 36% less than
the comparable/competitive 2BR/2b market rate net rent.
56
Effective Demand Pool
In this methodology, there are five basic sources of demand for
an apartment project to acquire potential elderly tenants:
* net renter household formation (normal growth),
* existing elderly households who are living in substandard
housing,
* existing renters who choose to move to another
unit, typically based on affordability (rent overburdened)
and project location and features, and
* current homeowners who elect to become renters, typically
based on changing physical and financial circumstances
and yield to the difficulty in maintaining a home.
* existing elderly households who are living with others,
including grown children and are not a census designated
renter or owner householder, Note: this segment of demand is
not derived from group quarters population, which is not
considered to be a component of demand. In addition, the 2010
State of Georgia Qualified Action Plan allows for this segment
of demand. Source: 2010 QAP Page 12 of 46, Appendix I Threshold Criteria.
As required by the most recent set of GA-DCA Market Study
Guidelines, several adjustments are made to the basic model.
The
methodology adjustments are:
(1) taking into consideration like-kind competitive units now in
the “pipeline”, and/or under construction within the 2010 to 2013
forecast period,
(2) taking into consideration like-kind competition introduced
into the market between 2000 and 2009, and
(3) for secondary market area demand (a 10% adjustment factor).
57
Demand from New Elderly Renter Households (Growth)
For the PMA, forecast housing demand through household formation
totals 657 elderly renter-occupied households over the 2000 to 2013
forecast period.
Based on 2013 income forecasts, 56 new elderly renter households
fall into the 50% AMI target income segment of the proposed subject
property, and 102 into the 60% AMI target income segment.
Demand from Existing Renters that are In Substandard Housing
The most current and reliable data from the US Census regarding
substandard housing is the 2000 census. By definition, substandard
housing in this market study is from Tables H21 and H48 in Summary File
3 of the 2000 census - Tenure by Age of Householder by Occupants Per
Room and Tenure by Plumbing Facilities, respectively.
In 2000, 9
elderly households were living in renter-occupied dwelling units
without complete plumbing facilities in the PMA. In 2000, there were
30 elderly renter households in overcrowded conditions in 2000.
Based on a field analysis of Statesboro and Bulloch County, along
with an examination of the trends in substandard data, by age, between
the 1990 and 2000 censuses, it is estimated that in 2013 there are 25
elderly renter households in substandard housing conditions in the PMA
versus 39 in 2000.
Based on 2013 income forecasts, 2 substandard elderly renter
households fall into the 50% AMI the target income segment of the
proposed subject property, and 4 into the 60% AMI target income
segment.
Demand from Existing Renters
An additional source of demand for rental units is derived from
renter households desiring to move to improve their living conditions,
to accommodate different space requirements, because of changes in
financial circumstances or affordability.
For this portion of the
estimate, rent overburdened households are included in the demand
analysis.
Note: This segment of the demand analysis excluded the
estimate of demand by substandard housing as defined in the previous
segment of the demand analysis.
By definition, rent overburdened are those households paying
greater than 30% to 35% of income to gross rent*. The most recent
census based data for the percentage of households that are rent
overburdened by income group is the 2000 census.
Forecasting this
percentage estimate forwarded into 2013 is extremely problematic and
would not hold up to the rigors of statistical analysis. It is assumed
that the percentage of rent overburdened elderly households within the
58
target income range has increased significantly, owing to the recent
national and worldwide recession, along with the current very slow
economic recovery since the 2000 census. It is estimated that
approximately 90% of the elderly renters with incomes in the 50% AMI
target income segment are rent overburdened, and 80% of the renters
with incomes in the 60% AMI target income segment are rent
overburdened.
*Note: HUD and the US Census define a rent over burdened household at
30% of income to rent.
In the PMA it is estimated that 121 existing elderly renter
households are rent overburdened and fall into the 50% AMI target
income segment of the proposed subject property, and 196 are in the 60%
AMI segment.
Demand from Existing Owners that are In Substandard Housing
The most current and reliable data from the US Census regarding
substandard housing is the 2000 census. By definition, substandard
housing in this market study is from Tables H21 and H48 in Summary File
3 of the 2000 census - Tenure by Age of Householder by Occupants Per
Room and Tenure by Plumbing Facilities, respectively.
In 2000, 6
elderly households were living in owner-occupied dwelling units without
complete plumbing facilities in the PMA. In 2000, there were 14 elderly
owner households in overcrowded conditions in 2000.
Based on a field analysis of Statesboro and Bulloch County, along
with an examination of the trends in substandard data, by age, between
the 1990 and 2000 censuses, it is estimated that in 2013 there are 10
elderly owner households in substandard housing conditions in the PMA
versus 20 in 2000.
Based on 2013 income forecasts, 1 substandard elderly owner
household falls into the 50% AMI the target income segment of the
proposed subject property, and 1 into the 60% AMI target income
segment.
Elderly Homeowner Tenure Conversion
An additional source of potential tenants involves elderly
householders who currently own a home, but who may switch to a rental
unit.
This tendency is divergent for non-elderly and elderly
households, and is usually the result of changes in circumstances in
the households - the financial ability to pay maintenance costs and
property taxes, the physical ability to maintain a larger, detached
house, or an increased need for security and proximity of neighbors.
In most cases, the need is strongest among single-person households,
primarily female, but is becoming more common among older couples as
well. Frequently, pressure comes from the householders’ family to make
the decision to move.
59
Recent surveys of new assisted housing for the elderly have
indicated that an average of 15% to 30% of a typical, elderly apartment
project’s tenants were former homeowners.
In order to remain
conservative this demand factor was capped at 10% in rural and 5% semirural and urban markets.
After income segmentation, this results in 13 elderly households
added to the target demand pool at 50% AMI, and 26 elderly households
added to the target demand pool at 60% AMI.
Note: This element of the demand methodology does not allow for
more than 20% of the overall demand estimate (up to this portion of the
demand methodology) to be derived from owner-occupied tenure. (This
is to ensure that there is no over weighting of demand from this
portion of the demand methodology.)
After adjusting for the 20% Rule, there was no change in the
calculations for this segment of the quantitative demand methodology.
Demand from Elderly Households in a Non Tenure Setting
The most current and reliable data from the US Census regarding
elderly households living with others (e.g., grown children) is the
2000 US Census.
Note: In order to remain conservative: (1) this
estimate of demand was only applied to elderly households age 65 and
over, i.e., those most likely to be residing with grown children and
relatives, (2) the renter-occupied income estimates were applied versus
the owner-occupied estimates and (3) the data was not forecasted to
2013, but instead held constant at 2000.
Table H16 in STF 1 exhibits tenure by age of householder. The
data in this table that was use was age 65+ for both owner-occupied and
renter-occupied. The resultant for the PMA was 2,602 households, age
65+. Table P23 in STF 1 exhibits households by presence of people 65
years and over, by household size and household type. The data used
in this table was the total number of households with one or more
people age 65 and over. This came to 2,845 households in the PMA. The
difference is 243 households with 1 or more persons age 65+, not in a
tenure setting, other than residing with others.
Based on 2013 income forecasts, 12 elderly households fall into
the 50% AMI LIHTC target income segment of the proposed subject
property, and 24 elderly households fall into the 60% AMI LIHTC target
income segment.
Note: This element of the demand methodology does not allow for
more than 20% of the overall demand estimate (up to this portion of the
demand methodology) to be derived from owner-occupied tenure. (This
is to ensure that there is no over weighting of demand from this
portion of the demand methodology.)
60
After adjusting for the 20% Rule, the segments of demand at both
50% and 60% AMI remained constant.
Secondary Market Area Adjustment
The following is in the 2010 GA-DCA Market Study Guidelines:
“Demand from the Secondary Market will be limited to 15% of the demand
from the Primary Market and will require the analyst to sufficient
documentation to justify the need for this market and how it relates
to the Primary Market in providing a more accurate analysis of the
proposed tenant population for the proposed development.”
As documented in Section C (Market Area Description) of this
report the demand methodology in this market study could utilize a GADCA market study guideline factor of 15%. However, in order to remain
conservative and account for the current PMA delineation the SMA factor
will be capped at 10%.
The secondary market area adjustment factor increased demand by
20 elderly households at 50% of AMI, and by 35 elderly households at
60% of AMI.
Total Effective Tenant Pool
The potential demand from these sources (in the methodology) total
225 households/units at 50% AMI.
The potential demand from these
sources (in the methodology) total 388 households/units at 60% AMI.
These estimates comprise the total income qualified demand pool from
which the tenants at the proposed project will be drawn from the PMA.
These estimates of demand were adjusted for the introduction of new
like-kind supply into the PMA since 2000.
Naturally, not every
household in this effective demand pool will choose to enter the market
for a new unit; this is the gross effective demand.
The final segmentation process of the demand methodology was to
subtract out like-kind competition/supply in the PMA built since 2000.
In the case of the subject, like-kind supply includes other LIHTC
and/or LIHTC/Home elderly developments. Note: Since 2000, the Laurel
Pointe LIHTC elderly development has been introduced within the PMA.
A total of 50 1BR and 2BR units at Laurel Pointe target elderly
households at 50% AMI, and 8-units at 60% AMI. These units will be
taken into consideration as direct competition within the quantitative
demand methodology, reducing the total effective tenant pool at 50% AMI
to 175 households/units, and at 60% AMI to 380 households/units.
61
Upcoming Direct Competition
An additional adjustment is made to the total demand estimate. The
estimated number of direct competitive supply under construction and/or
in the pipeline for development must be taken into consideration.
According to local sources, no other elderly multi-family apartment
development supply is under construction or in the pipeline for
development.
A review of the 2000 to 2009 list of awards made by the Georgia
Department of Community Affairs revealed that in the last ten rounds
two awards were made for a LIHTC elderly developments within the PMA.
One award was made for Laurel Pointe and the other Ashton Statesboro,
an acquisition rehab property. Laurel Pointe was built in 2003 and
will be taken into consideration with the quantitative demand
methodology. Note: Ashton Statesboro was rehabed in 2004. It is a 98unit HUD Section 8 elderly development with 100% PBRA that targets
households at 30% AMI. This property is not considered to be comparable
with the subject.
The segmented, effective demand pool for the proposed LIHTC
elderly development is summarized in Table 18.
62
Table 18
LIHTC Quantitative Demand Estimate: Statesboro PMA
! Demand from New Growth - Elderly Renter Households
Total Projected Number of Households (2013)
Less:
Current Number of Households (2000)
Change in Total Renter Households
% of Renter Households in Target Income Range
Total Demand from New Growth
AMI
50%
AMI
60%
1,606
949
+ 657
8.5%
56
1,606
949
+ 657
15.5%
102
39
25
8.5%
39
25
15.5%
! Demand from Substandard Housing with Renter Households
Number of Households in Substandard Housing(2000)
Number of Households in Substandard Housing(2013)
% of Substandard Households in Target Income Range
Number of Income Qualified Renter Households
2
4
! Demand from Existing Elderly Renter Households
Number of Renter Households (2013)
Minus Number of Substandard Renter Household
Total in Eligible Demand Pool
% of Households in Target Income Range
Number of Income Qualified Renter Households
Proportion Income Qualified (that are Rent
Overburden)
Total
! Total Demand From Elderly Renters
1,606
- 25
1,581
8.5%
134
90%
1,606
- 25
1,581
15.5%
245
80%
121
196
179
302
! Demand from Substandard Housing with Owner Households
Number of Households in Substandard Housing(2000)
Number of Households in Substandard Housing(2013)
% of Substandard Households in Target Income Range
Number of Income Qualified Owner Households
20
10
5%
1
20
10
10%
1
5,265
- 10
5,255
5%
263
5%
13
0
13
5,265
- 10
5,255
10%
525
5%
26
0
26
! Demand from Existing Elderly Owner Households
Number of Owner Households (2013)
Minus Number of Substandard Owner Household
Total in Eligible Demand Pool
% of Households in Target Income Range
Number of Income Qualified Owner Households
Proportion Income Qualified (likely to Re-locate)
Total
20% Rule Adjustment
Net (after adjustment)
63
! Total Demand From Elderly Owners
14
27
243
243
5%
12
243
243
10%
24
! Demand from Elderly in Non Tenure Settings
Number of Elderly Households living w/others (2000)
Number of Elderly Households living w/others (2013)
% of Substandard Households in Target Income Range
Number of Income Qualified Elderly Households
20% Rule Adjustment
Net (after adjustment)
-
! Net Total Demand (Renter, Owner & Non Tenure)
0
12
-
0
24
205
353
205
10%
20
353
10%
35
225
388
50
8
175
380
! Secondary Market Area Adjustment
Net Total Demand
Adjustment Factor of 10%
Demand from SMA Adjustment
! Gross Total Demand (Renter, Owner, Non Tenure & SMA)
Minus New Supply of Competitive Units (2000-2009)*
! Gross Total Demand (Renter, Owner, Non Tenure & SMA)
* 50% & 60% units at Laurel Pointe
64
-
Capture Rate Analysis
Total Number of Households Income Qualified = 555. For the subject 64 LIHTC
units, this equates to an overall LIHTC Capture Rate of 11.5%.
50%
AMI
60%
AMI
Number of Units in LIHTC Segment
Number of Income Qualified Households
13
175
51
380
Required Capture Rate
7.4%
! Capture Rate (64-units)
13.4%
! Total Demand by Bedroom Mix
Approximately 46% of the 55 and over population in the PMA is in the 55 to 64
age group. Also, of the PMA elderly population age 55+ that comprises 1 and 2 person
households (both owners and renters), approximately 47% are 1 person and 53% are 2
person (see Table 10). In addition, the size of the households age 55+ in the 2013
forecast year increased to approximately 1.53 versus approximately 1.47 in the 2000
Census, and in turn suggests additional demand support for 2BR units.
Based on these data it is assumed that 40% of the target group will demand a
1BR unit and 60% a 2BR unit.
* At present there are no LIHTC like kind competitive properties either under
construction or in the pipeline for development.
Total Demand by Bedroom Type (at 50% AMI)
1BR
- 70
2BR
- 105
Total - 175
Total Demand
1BR
2BR
70
105
New
Supply*
Net Demand
0
0
70
105
Units
Proposed
3
10
Capture
Rate
4.3%
9.5%
Total Demand by Bedroom Type (at 60% AMI)
1BR
- 152
2BR
- 228
Total - 380
Total Demand
1BR
2BR
152
228
New
Supply*
Net Demand
0
0
152
228
65
Units
Proposed
5
46
Capture
Rate
3.3%
20.2%
Table 18 - Converted w/in GA-DCA Required Table
HH @30% AMI
xxxxxx to
xxxxxx
HH @50% AMI
$13,500 to
$21,450
HH@ 60% AMI
$13,500 to
$25,740
56
102
158
2
4
6
121
196
317
18
30
48
(10%factor)
(10%factor)
197
332
529
14
27
41
211
359
570
Supply of comparable
LIHTC or Market Rate
housing units built
and/or planned in
the project market
between 2000 and the
present
50
8
58
Equals Net Demand
161
351
512
Demand from New
Household (age &
income appropriate)
HH @ Market
xxxxxx to
xxxxxx
All LIHTC
Households
Plus
Demand from Existing
Renter Households Substandard Housing
Plus
Demand from Existing
Renter Households Rent Overburdened
households
Plus
Secondary Market
Demand adjustment
(if any) Subject to
15% Limitation
Sub Total
Demand from Existing
Households - Elderly
Homeowner Turnover
(limited to 20%)
Equals Total Demand
Less
66
Capture Rate Analysis Chart
Income
Targeting
Income
Limits
Units
Proposed
Total
Demand
Supply
Net
Demand
Capture
Rate
Abspt
50% AMI
$13,500-$21,450
13
211
50
161
8.1%
2 mos.
1BR
$13,500-$18,800
3
84
12
72
4.2%
1 mo.
2BR
$15,480-$21,450
10
127
38
89
11.2%
2 mos.
60% AMI
$13,500-$25,740
51
359
8
351
14.5%
10 mos.
1BR
$13,500-$22,560
5
144
2
142
3.5%
1 mo.
2BR
$15,480-$25,740
46
215
6
209
22.0%
10 mos.
Total 50%
$13,500-$21,450
13
211
50
161
8.1%
2 moa.
Total 60%
$13,500-$25,740
51
359
8
351
14.5%
10 mos.
Total
LIHTC
$13,500-$25,740
64
570
58
512
12.5%
10 mos.
30% AMI
1BR
2BR
3BR
4BR
3BR
4BR
3BR
4BR
Market
Rate
1BR
2BR
3BR
4BR
Total 30%
67
Rent Analysis Chart
Income
Targeting
Average
Market Rent
Market Rent Band
Min-Max
Proposed Rents
1BR
$450
$428-$454
$320
2BR
$590*
$589-$750
$350
1BR
$450
$428-$454
$320
2BR
$590*
$589-$750
$350
30% AMI
1BR
2BR
3BR
4BR
50% AMI
3BR
4BR
60% AMI
3BR
4BR
Market Rate
1BR
2BR
3BR
4BR
* adjusted down (from actual market average) to account for GSU student
apartment market
68
Overall Impact to the Rental Market
Given the current rental market vacancy rate and the forecasted
strength of demand for the expected entry of the subject in 2013, it is
estimated that the introduction of the proposed development will have
no long term negative impact on the PMA program assisted elderly
apartment market.
At present, the existing LIHTC elderly properties in Statesboro,
Laurel Pointe and Ashton Statesboro Village are 99% and 100% occupied,
respectively. Both maintain a waiting list.
69
his section of the report
evaluates the general rental
SECTION H
housing market conditions in
the
PMA,
for
both
program
assisted properties and market
COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT &
rate properties. Part I of the
SUPPLY ANALYSIS
survey focused upon a sample of
LIHTC-family and market rate
properties within the PMA. Part
II consisted of a survey of the
program assisted properties in
Statesboro targeting the elderly population.
The analysis includes
individual summaries and pictures of properties as well as an overall
summary rent reconciliation analysis.
T
The Statesboro PMA apartment market is representative of a semiurban apartment market, with a sizable mixture of small to large
apartment properties as well as a sizable mixture of conventional
properties and program assisted properties.
In addition, the local
conventional market is greatly influenced by the presence of Georgia
Southern University. At present, the Statesboro apartment market
contains several small to mid-size program assisted properties.
Part I - Sample Survey of LIHTC family & Market Rate Apartments
Eight LIHTC-family and market rate properties, representing 749
units, were surveyed in the subject’s competitive environment, in
detail. Note: Four of the surveyed properties are LIHTC family
complexes, of which one offers market rate units. Several key findings
in the local LIHTC-fm and conventional apartment market include:
* At the time of the survey, the overall estimated vacancy rate of
the surveyed apartment properties was approximately 5%. The overall
estimated vacancy rate of the surveyed LIHTC-family apartment
properties was approximately 12%. The overall estimated vacancy
rate of the surveyed market rate apartment properties was
approximately 2%.
* The bedroom mix of the surveyed apartment properties is 7% 1BR,
65% 2BR, and 28% 3BR.
* A survey of the conventional apartment market exhibited the
following average, median and range of net rents, by bedroom type,
in the area competitive environment:
Market Rate Competitive Environment - Net Rents
BR/Rent
Average
Median
Range
1BR/1b
$450
$450
$428-$454
2BR/1b
$453
$478
$430-$503
2BR/2b
$703
$700
$589-$750
3BR/2b
$941
$900
$689-$975
Source: Koontz & Salinger.
July, 2010
70
* A survey of the conventional apartment market exhibited the
following average, median and range of size of units, by bedroom
type, in the area competitive environment:
Market Rate Competitive Environment - Unit Size
BR/Size
Average
Median
Range
1BR/1b
639
700
584-817
2BR/1b
974
970
877-978
2BR/2b
1030
1055
995-1177
3BR/2b
1183
1185
1148-1256
Source: Koontz & Salinger.
July, 2010
* In the area of unit size, by bedroom type, the subject will offer
very competitive unit sizes, by floor plan, with the existing
market rate properties.
Part II - Survey of the Elderly Apartment Market
Three program assisted properties targeting the elderly population,
representing 228 units, were surveyed in the subject’s competitive
environment, in detail. At present, there is one LIHTC property located
within Statesboro targeting the elderly population at 50% and 60% AMI,
i.e., Laurel Pointe. Several key findings in the local program assisted
apartment market include:
* At the time of the survey, the overall estimated vacancy rate of
the surveyed elderly apartment properties was approximately 1.8%.
* At the time of the survey, the one LIHTC elderly property, Laurel
Point was 99% occupied. At the time of the survey, the 72-unit
development had 9-applicants on the waiting list. Laurel Pointe
opened in 2003. Management reported that the development was 100%
occupied within 12-months of opening. The estimated was somewhere
close to 10-months.
* The bedroom mix of the surveyed elderly apartment properties is
73% 1BR and 27% 2BR. The bedroom mix of Laurel Pointe is 33% 1BR
and 67% 2BR.
71
Comparability
The most direct, like-kind comparable surveyed properties to the
proposed subject development in terms of age and income targeting are
the Laurel Pointe LIHTC-elderly, and Madison Meadows LIHTC-family
properties located in Statesboro. Note: About 30% of the lease holders
at Madison Meadows are age 55 and over.
In terms of market rents,
(Street rents) the most comparable properties, comprise a compilation of
the surveyed market rate properties located within the PMA, extracting
out the low and high rents and focusing upon the overall median net
rent, by bedroom type. Overall, the best rent comparable market rate
properties to the subject are Hillcrest and the market rate units at
Laurel Pointe and Madison Meadows.
Fair Market Rents
The 2010 Fair Market Rents for Bulloch County, GA are as follows:
Efficiency
1 BR Unit
2 BR Unit
3 BR Unit
4 BR Unit
=
=
=
=
=
$
$
$
$
$
505
522
619
743
763
*Fair Market Rents are gross rents (include utility costs)
Source: www.huduser.org
Note: The proposed subject property LIHTC one and two-bedroom gross
rents are set below the maximum Fair Market Rent for a one and twobedroom unit. Thus, the subject property LIHTC 1BR and 2BR units will
be readily marketable to Section 8 voucher holders in Bulloch County.
72
Table 19 exhibits building permit data between 2000 and April,
2010. The permit data is for Bulloch County.
Between 2000 and 2010, 5,815 permits were issued in Bulloch County,
of which, 1,149 or approximately 20% were multi-family units.
Table 19
New Housing Units Permitted:
Bulloch County, 2000-2010 1
Year
Net
Total 2
Single-Family
Units
Multi-Family
Units
2000
526
256
270
2001
630
328
302
2002
621
343
278
2003
456
450
6
2004
566
547
19
2005
543
525
18
2006
915
867
48
2007
830
800
30
2008
382
328
54
2009
213
153
60
2010
133
69
64
5,815
4,666
1,149
Total
1
Source: New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized In Permit Issuing Places,
U.S. Department of Commerce, C-40 Construction Reports. U.S. Census Bureau.
Selig Center for Economic Growth.
2
Net total equals new SF and MF dwellings units.
73
Table 20, exhibits the project size, bedroom mix, number of vacant
units (at time of the survey), net rents and unit sizes of the surveyed
LIHTC-family and conventional apartment properties in the Statesboro
competitive environment.
Table 20
SURVEY OF LIHTC-fm & CONVENTIONAL APARTM ENT COM PLEXES
PROJECT PARAM ETERS
Complex
Total
Units
1BR
2BR
3BR
Vac.
Units
1BR
Rent
2BR
Rent
3BR
Rent
SF
1BR
SF
2BR
SF
3BR
Subject
56
8
56
--
Na
$320
$350
--
762
1078
--
Little Lotts
72
--
32
40
16
--
$425
$490
--
1056
1256
Madison
Meadows
110
--
56
54
6
--
$423$589
$482$689
--
9911081
1148
Statesboro
53
20
33
--
2
$294
$330
--
Na
Na
--
Twenty-Four
48
16
32
--
0
$345
$365
--
Na
Na
--
Greenbriar
316
--
216
100
0
--
$700
$975
--
995
1172
Eagle Creek
50
17
17
16
2
$450
$690
$900$1100
700
995
12001422
Hillcrest
28
--
28
--
0
--
$430
--
--
Na
--
Village of
Mill Creek
72
--
72
--
6
--
$725$750
--
--
10721177
--
Total*
749
53
486
210
32
* - Excludes the subject property
Na - Not available
Source: Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
74
Table 21, exhibits the key amenities of the subject and the
surveyed LIHTC-fm and conventional apartment properties. Overall, the
subject is competitive to very competitive with all of the existing
conventional apartment properties in the market regarding the unit and
development amenity package.
Table 21
SURVEY OF LIHTC-fm &CONVENTIONAL APARTM ENT COM PLEXES
UNIT & PROJECT AM ENITIES
Complex
A
B
Subject
x
Little Lotts
C
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Madison
Meadows
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Statesboro
x
x
x
x
x
x
Twenty-Four
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Greenbriar
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Eagle Creek
Hillcrest
D
x
x
x
Village of
Mill Creek
x
x
x
x
x
Source: Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
Key: A
D
G
J
M
-
On-Site Mgmt
B Tennis Court
E Disposal
H Cable Ready
K Storage/other (inc.
Central Laundry
C - Pool
Playground/Rec Area F - Dishwasher
W/D Hook-ups
I - A/C
Mini-Blinds
L - Community Rm/Exercise Rm
- ceiling fan, microwave, patio/balcony)
75
x
Table 22, exhibits the project size, bedroom mix, number of vacant
units (at time of the survey), net rents and unit sizes of the surveyed
program assisted elderly apartment properties in the Statesboro
competitive environment.
Table 22
SURVEY OF STATESBORO ELDERLY APARTM ENT COM PLEXES
PROJECT PARAM ETERS
Complex
Total
Units
1BR
2BR
3BR
Vac.
Units
1BR
Rent
2BR
Rent
3BR
Rent
SF
1BR
SF
2BR
SF
3BR
Subject
56
8
56
--
Na
$320
$350
--
762
1078
--
Laurel
Pointe
72
24
48
--
1
$359$428
$420$503
--
817
978
--
Ashton
Statesboro
98
96
2
--
-
BOI
BOI
--
584
877
--
W ildwood
Villas
58
46
12
--
3
$310
$335
--
Na
Na
--
Total*
228
166
62
--
4
* - Excludes the subject property
BOI - Based on Income
** Basic rent noted for USDA-RD properties
Source: Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
76
Na - Not available
Table 23, exhibits the key amenities of the subject and the
surveyed program assisted apartment properties. Overall, the subject is
competitive to very competitive with all of the existing program
assisted elderly apartment properties in the market regarding the unit
and development amenity package.
Table 23
SURVEY OF STATESBORO ELDERLY APARTM ENT COM PLEXES
UNIT & PROJECT AM ENITIES
Complex
A
B
Subject
x
x
Laurel
Pointe
x
x
Ashton
Statesboro
x
x
W ildwood
Villas
x
x
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Source: Koontz and Salinger. July, 2010.
Key: A
D
G
J
M
-
On-Site Mgmt
B Tennis Court
E Disposal
H Cable Ready
K Storage/other (inc.
Central Laundry
C - Pool
Playground/Rec Area F - Dishwasher
W/D Hook-ups
I - A/C
Mini-Blinds
L - Community Rm/Exercise Rm
- ceiling fan, microwave, patio/balcony)
77
x
The data on the individual complexes, reported on the following
pages, were reported by the owners or managers of the specific projects.
In some cases, the managers / owners were unable to report on a specific
project item, or declined to provide detailed information.
A map showing the location of the surveyed market rate properties
is provided on page 90. A map showing the location of the surveyed
elderly properties is provided on page 91. A map showing the location of
the surveyed program assisted properties is provided on page 25.
78
Survey of the Competitive Environment - Market Rate & LIHTC fm
1. Little Lotts Creek, 14 East Jones St
(912) 764-3982
Contact: Sonya, Mgr (4/28/10)
Date Built: 1995
Contact Type: In person
Number
60%
Rent
2BR/2b
3BR/2b
32
40
$425
$490
Total
72
Unit Type
Type: LIHTC-fm
Condition: Good
Utility
Allowance
$174
$212
Vacant
1056
1256
8
8
16
Typical Occupancy Rate: 90% (recently)
Security Deposit: $200
Utilities Included: trash
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
Size sf
Waiting List: No
Concessions: No
Turnover: Na
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes (office)
Yes
No
No
Pool
Clubhouse
Recreation Area
Picnic Area
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Fitness Ctr
Business Ctr
Design: 3 story walk-up (perimeter fencing)
Remarks: 10% of units occupied by a households 55+; 14-units occupied by a
Section 8 voucher holder
79
2. Madison Meadows, 10 Packinghouse Road
Contact: Lynne Bradley, Mgr (4/28/10)
Date Built: 2002
Contact Type: In person
Unit Type
2BR/2b
3BR/2b
Total
Number
Type: LIHTC fm
Condition: Very Good
Utility
Allowance
50%
Rent
60%
MR
56
54
$423
$482
$544
$621
$589
$689
110
50
36
24
Typical Occupancy Rate: 96%
Security Deposit: $250
Utilities Included: trash
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
(912) 489-1001
$179
$213
Size sf
Vacant
999-1081
1148
*
*
6
Waiting List: No
Concessions: Yes
Turnover: 4 to 5 per mo.
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes (office)
Yes
Yes
No
Pool
Clubhouse
Recreation Area
Picnic Area
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Fitness Ctr
Business Ctr
Design: 2 story walk-up/ gated entry
Remarks: 7-units are occupied by a Section 8 voucher holder; almost 30% of
the units are leased by a householder age 55 and over; current concession
is ½ off May 2010 rent; anticipate being 95% occupied in 30-days
80
3. Statesboro Apts (Wildwood I) Wildwood Cir
Type: USDA-RD family
Contact: Erin Wetherton, Mgr (4/28/10)
Contact Type: In person
Unit Type
Basic
Rent
Number
1BR/1b
2BR/1b
20
33
Total
53
$294
$330
Utility
Allowance
Vacant
$108
$133
0
2
2
Typical Occupancy Rate: 94%
Security Deposit: basic rent
Utilities Included: Allowance
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
Condition: Good
Date Built: 1985
Market
Rent
$470
$516
(912) 764-7966
Waiting List: Yes (20)
Concessions: No
Turnover: Na
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes (office)
Yes
No
No
Pool
Clubhouse
Recreation Area
Tennis Court
No
No
No
No
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Fitness Ctr
Business Ctr
Design: townhouse
Remarks: no deep subsidy rental assistance; 2-units are occupied by a
Section 8 voucher holder
81
4. Twenty Four East, 566 E Main St
(912) 764-7852
Type: USDA-RD family
Contact: Christy, WT Lamb Invst (6/14/10)
Contact Type: Telephone
Unit Type
Basic
Rent
Number
1BR/1b
2BR/1b
16
32
Total
48
$345
$365
Market
Rent
$505
$576
Utility
Allowance
Vacant
$ 79
$103
0
0
0
Typical Occupancy Rate: 95%
Security Deposit: basic rent
Utilities Included: allowance
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
Condition: Good
Date Built: 1990
Waiting List: Yes
Concessions: No
Turnover: Na
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes (office)
Yes
No
No
Pool
Clubhouse
Recreation Area
Tennis Court
No
No
No
No
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Fitness Ctr
Business Ctr
Design: townhouse & 1-story
Remarks: no deep subsidy rental assistance; 2-units are occupied by a
Section 8 voucher holder; has some elderly tenants
82
5. Greenbriar & Hawthrone, 21 Greenbriar Rd
(912) 681-1166
Contact: Mary, (6/7/10)
Date Built: 1975
Unit Type
Type: Conventional
Condition: Good
Number
Rent
Size sf
2BR/2b
3BR/3b
216
100
$700
$975
995
1172
Total
316
Vacant
0
0
0
Typical Occupancy Rate: mid 90's
Security Deposit: 1 month
Utilities Included: None
Waiting List: “not needed”
Concessions: No
Turnover: Na
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes (office)
Yes
No
No
Pool
Tennis Courts
Recreation Area
Clubhouse
Yes
No
Yes
No
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Fitness Ctr
Storage
Design: townhouse
Remarks: most tenants are students and healthcare workers
83
6. Eagle Creek Townhouses, 220 Lanier Dr
(912) 681-1634
Contact: Mark, Mgr (6/18/10)
Date Built: 1992
Unit Type
Number
1BR/1b
2BR/2.5b
3BR/2.5b
4BR/2.5b
17
17
8
8
Total
50
Type: Conventional
Condition: Good
Rent
Size sf
$450
$690
$900
$1100
700
995
1200
1422
Vacant
*
*
*
*
2
Typical Occupancy Rate: mid 90's
Security Deposit: 1 month rent
Utilities Included: Na
Waiting List: No
Concessions: No
Turnover: Na
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Pool
Clubhouse
Recreation Area
Picnic Area
No
No
No
No
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Fitness Ctr
Business Ctr
Design: townhouse
Remarks: rents mostly to students
84
7. Hillcrest Apartments, E main St
(912) 489-0679
Contact: VanHop Prop, (6/14/10)
Type: Conventional
Date Built: Na
Condition: Good
Unit Type
Number
Rent
2BR/1b
28
$430
Total
28
Size sf
Na
Vacant
0
0
Typical Occupancy Rate: Na
Security Deposit: $450
Utilities Included: trash
Waiting List: No
Concessions: No
Turnover: Na
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
No
Pool
Clubhouse
Recreation Area
Picnic Area
No
No
No
No
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Fitness Ctr
Business Ctr
Design: 1-story
Remarks: microwave appliance in each unit
85
8. Village of Mill Creek, 552 E Main St
(912) 489-3044
Contact: Ms Mickie, Mgr (6/14/10)
Type: Conventional
Date Built: 2008
Condition: Very Good
Unit Type
Number
Rent
Size sf
Vacant
2BR/2b
72
$725-$750
1072-1177
6
Total
72
6
Typical Occupancy Rate: Na
Security Deposit: $200
Utilities Included: trash
Waiting List: No
Concessions: Yes
Turnover: Na
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes (office)
No
Yes
No
Pool
Clubhouse
Recreation Area
Picnic Area
Yes
Yes
No
No
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Fitness Ctr
Business Ctr
Design: 2-story
Remarks: young professional, students, young adults; when economy improves
there are plans to increase the project size to 240-units;
presently Offering a special of ½ off 1st month rent
86
Survey of the Competitive Environment: Elderly
1. Laurel Pointe, 510 East Main St
(912) 764-9945
Contact: Nina See-Quick, Mgr (4/28/10)
Date Built: 2003
Contact Type: In person
Unit Type
Number
Utility
Allowance
50%
Rent
60%
MR
$359
$420
$428
$503
1BR/1b
2BR/1b
24
48
$359
$420
Total
72
50
8
Type: LIHTC el
Condition: Excellent
$ Na
$ Na
Size sf
Vacant
817
978
0
1
14
Typical Occupancy Rate: 98%
Security Deposit: $300
Utilities Included: sewer, trash
1
Waiting List: Yes (9)
Concessions: No
Turnover: 1 per month
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes (office)
Yes
No
Yes
Pool
Community Room
Recreation Area
Picnic Area
No
Yes
No
Yes
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Fitness Ctr
Storage
Design: 1 story
Remarks: 2-units have a Section 8 voucher; 100% occupied within 12-months;
2BR units are in most demand; 20% of the units occupied by household 55+
87
2. Ashton Statesboro, 241 N Main St
(912) 764-6171
Contact: Ashely McGahee, Mgr (4/28/10)
Date Built: 1977 rehab 2004
Contact Type: In person
Number
Contract
Rent
1BR/1b
2BR/1.5b
96
2
$615
$759
Total
98
Unit Type
Type: LIHTC el (60% AMI)
Condition: Good
LIHTC
Rent
$602
$723
Size sf
Vacant
584
877
0
0
0
Typical Occupancy Rate: 99%
Security Deposit: based on income
Utilities Included: All
Waiting List: Yes (8)
Concessions: No
Turnover: Na
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes (office)
Yes
Yes
No
Pool
Community Room
Recreation Area
Picnic Area
No
Yes
No
No
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Fitness Ctr
Storage
Design: 6 story mid rise
Remarks: 100% PBRA; 40% of the tenants are 55 and over; 60% are non elderly
handicap/disabled
88
3. Wildwood Villas II, 50 Wildwood Circle
Type: USDA-RD elderly
Contact: Erin Wetherton, Mgr (4/28/10)
Contact Type: In person
Unit Type
Basic
Rent
Number
1BR/1b
2BR/1b
46
12
Total
58
$310
$335
Market
Rent
$454
$478
(912) 764-7966
Condition: Good
Date Built: 1988
Utility
Allowance
Vacant
$ 98
$120
2
1
3
Typical Occupancy Rate: 95%
Security Deposit: 1 month basic
Utilities Included: trash
Waiting List: Yes (1)
Concessions: No
Amenities - Unit
Stove
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
Disposal
Washer/Dryer
W/D Hook Up
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
Air Conditioning
Cable Ready
Carpeting
Window Treatment
Ceiling Fan
Patio/Balcony
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes (office)
Yes
Yes
No
Pool
Tennis
Recreation Area
Picnic Area
No
No
No
No
Amenities - Project
On-Site Mgmt
Laundry Room
Community Room
Storage
Design: one story
Additional Information: 52 units have RA; 34% of the tenants are non
elderly handicap
89
90
91
SECTION I
ABSORPTION &
STABILIZATION RATES
he Given the strength (or lack
of strength) of the demand
estimated in Table 18, the worst
case scenario for 93% to 100% rentup is estimated to be 12 months (at
5-units per month on average). The
most
likely/best
case
rent-up
scenario suggests a 10-month rent-up
time period (an average of 6-units
per month).
T
The primary basis of the absorption forecast was the rent-up
process of Laurel Pointe.
The 72-unit Laurel Pointe LIHTC elderly
development (built in 2003) was reported to have been 100% occupied
within 12-months.
Note: The absorption of the project is contingent upon an attractive
product, professional management, and a strong marketing and pre-leasing
program.
Stabilized occupancy, subsequent to initial lease-up is expected
to be 93% or higher up to but no later than a three month period, beyond
the absorption period.
92
SECTION J
INTERVIEWS
he following are observations
and comments relating to the
subject property. They were
obtained via a survey of local
contacts interviewed during the
course of the market study research
process.
T
In
most
instances
the
project
parameters of the proposed development were presented to the “key
contact”, in particular: the proposed site location, project size,
bedroom mix, income targeting and net rents.
The following
observations/comments were made:
(1) - Ms. Erin Wetherton, manager of the Wildwood Villas USDA-RD
elderly development, reported (in person interview) that Wildwood Villas
was typically 95% occupied and maintained a waiting list. At the time of
the survey, Wildwood Villas had 3-vacant units, and 1-applicant on the
waiting list. It was stated that if the proposed subject development
was introduced into the market, neither short nor long term negative
impact are expected to be placed upon Wildwood Villas. Contact Number:
(912) 764-7966.
(2) - Ms. Ashley McGee, the Manager of the Ashton Statesboro LIHTC
elderly development, reported (in person interview) that her property is
typically 100% occupied and maintains a waiting list. It was stated
that if the proposed subject development was introduced into the market
neither short nor long term negative impact are expected to be placed
upon Ashton Statesboro. Contact Number: (912) 764-6171.
(3) - Mr. Gary Hall (Hall Housing, Inc.), the owner of the Laurel Pointe
LIHTC elderly development, reported that his property is typically 97%
to 98% occupied, and maintains a waiting list.
At the time of the
survey, Laurel Pointe had 1-vacant unit, and 9-applicants on the waiting
list. Mr. Hall stated, that if the proposed subject development was
introduced into the market no short term nor long term negative impact
is expected to be placed upon Laurel Pointe. Contact Numbers: (615) 2569671 and (912) 764-9945.
(4) - Ms. Lynne Bradley, the Manager of the Madison Meadows LIHTC family
development, reported (in person interview) that her property is
typically 96% occupied and that about 30% of the existing leaseholders
are age 55+. It was stated that if the proposed subject development was
introduced into the market neither short nor long term negative impact
are expected to be placed upon Madison Meadows. Ms Bradley went on to
state that the Statesboro market was in need of more LIHTC elderly
housing. Contact Number: (912) 489-1001.
(5) - Ms. Becky Livingston, President of Bethany Homes (Assisted Living
& Nursing Home Care) stated Statesboro is need of elderly apartment
housing that targets the moderate income range of the market versus the
93
very low or high income range. As a longtime resident of Statesboro,
she has witnessed a growing elderly population, of which an increasing
number are now in need of alternative, affordable housing. The local
apartment market has a large supply of rentals that target GSU students
and are not well suited to serving elderly households. Contact Number:
(912) 764-7960.
(6) - Ms. Peggy Chapman, President of the Statesboro-Bulloch Chamber of
Commerce and Development Authority stated Statesboro is need of addition
apartment housing the solely targets the elderly population. The size
of the elderly population in Statesboro and Bulloch County has been
increasing over the last decade.
Ms Peggy Chapman is aware of the
subject site location and believes that it will be well received by the
elderly market. She stated, like Ms Livingston, that Statesboro has a
large supply of rentals that target GSU students and are not well suited
to serving elderly households in need of alternative rental housing.
Contact Number: (912) 489-9115.
94
SECTION K
CONCLUSIONS &
RECOMMENDATION
s proposed in Section B of this
study, it is of the opinion of
the analyst, based on the
findings in the market study that
the Grace Crossing Apartments (a
proposed
LIHTC elderly (age 55+)
property) proceed forward with the
development process.
A
Detailed Support of Recommendation
1. Product Mix - The age and income qualified target group is large
enough to absorb the proposed product development of 64 units.
2. Assessment of rents - The proposed net rents will be very
competitive within the PMA.
3. The current apartment market for both LIHTC elderly supply and
conventional supply (located within the PMA) is not representative
of an over saturated market, for well maintained, well amenitized,
and professionally managed properties.
4. The proposed complex unit amenity package is considered to be
competitive within the PMA.
5. Stabilized occupancy, subsequent to initial lease-up, is
forecasted to be 93% or higher.
6. The site location is considered to be very marketable.
7. The proposed development will not negatively impact the existing
supply of program assisted elderly properties in the market.
95
SECTION L
IDENTITY OF INTEREST
I affirm that I have made a physical inspection of the market area
and the subject property area and that information has been used in the
full study of need and demand for the proposed units. To the best of my
knowledge, the market can support the project as shown in the study. I
understand that any misrepresentation of this statement may result in
the denial of further participation in DCA’s rental housing programs.
I also affirm that I have no interest in the project or relationship
with the ownership entity and my compensation is not contingent on this
project being funded.
The report was written in accordance with my understanding of the
2010 GA-DCA Market Study Manual and 2010 GA-DCA Qualified Action Plan.
CERTIFICATION
Koontz and Salinger
P.O. Box 37523
Raleigh, North Carolina 27627
Jerry M Koontz
Digitally signed by Jerry M
Koontz
DN: cn=Jerry M Koontz,
o=Koontz and Salinger, c=US
Date: 2010.07.19 06:48:17
-04'00'
_______________________________, _____________
Signature Not
Verified
Jerry M. Koontz
Real Estate Market Analyst
(919) 362-9085
Date
96
oontz and Salinger conducts
Real Estate Market Research
and
provides
general
consulting services for real estate
development
projects.
Market
studies
are
prepared
for
residential
and
commercial
development. Due diligence work is
performed for the financial service
industry and governmental agencies.
K
MARKET ANALYST
QUALIFICATIONS
JERRY M. KOONTZ
EDUCATION:
M.A. Geography
B.A. Economics
A.A. Urban Studies
1982
1980
1978
Florida Atlantic Un.
Florida Atlantic Un.
Prince George Comm. Coll.
PROFESSIONAL: 1985-Present, Principal, Koontz and Salinger, a
Real Estate Market Research firm. Raleigh, NC
1983-1985, Market Research Staff Consultant,
Stephens Associates, an consulting firm in real
estate development and planning. Raleigh, NC
1982-1983, Planner, Broward Regional Health Planning
Council. Ft. Lauderdale, FL.
1980-1982, Research Assistant, Regional Research
Associates. Boca Raton, FL.
AREAS OF
EXPERIENCE:
Real Estate Market Analysis: Residential Properties
and Commercial Properties
WORK PRODUCT: Over last 26+ years have conducted real estate market
studies, in 31 states. Studies have been prepared
for the LIHTC & Home programs, USDA-RD Section 515
& 528 programs, HUD Section 202 and 221 (d)(4)
programs, conventional single-family and multifamily developments, personal care boarding homes,
motels and shopping centers.
PHONE:
FAX:
EMAIL:
(919) 362-9085
(919) 362-4867
VONKOONTZ@AOL
Member in Good Standing: Professional Real Estate Market Analysts
Coalition (PREMAC)
97
APPENDIX A
DATA SET
98
99