JULY 2009 OVERVIEWS AND ANALYSES
The trains of projectiles drawn by Montaut for the novel
by Jules Verne, « From the Earth to the Moon », 104 years
before the Apollo 11 mission
Just a Few Words…
ABOUT INFLUENCE REGARDING INFORMATION
Three facts have to be noticed in July. The first one concerns the
influence of the climatic and environmental deal. The information
flows targeting specifically this area are not truly dominant, quite a
contrary. Nevertheless, numerous other sectors take this topic into
account. In this way, this issue acts as a factor of dynamics for the
main “hot spots”. This fact would seem to demonstrate that an
identical rule could be applied to information and to the political and
geopolitical fields, the one which differentiates power and influence.
The second fact is not unrelated to the previous assumption. It
concerns the influence of the US domestic affairs regarding the
international information flows. The third fact, albeit less visible,
concerns the information coming from African countries, notably from
English-speaking countries. Even if the measures are still modest, the
information flows reveal that environmental issues and information
technologies are considered when addressing actions related to
development.n
“Let’s make sure of the fact
before inquiring about the
cause. It is true that this way
looks really slow for people
who run straight to the cause
and pass over the verity of
the fact; but indeed, we shall
save ourselves from the
ridicule of avoiding the cause
of the non-existent”.!
L’histoire des Oracles, Fontenelle (1687)
Contents
5 - Global Information Flows
7 - Climate & Environment
9- Society
6 - Economy & Geopolitics
8 - Sciences & Technologies
11 - Hot Spots
3
The Talisman,!
Paul Sérusier!
(1864 - 1927)!
Orsay Museum!
©RMN!
4
In 1888, Paul Sérusier
went to Pont-Aven
(Brittany) where he met
Gauguin. He painted
this picture by
following Gauguin’s
advices. The point was
no longer an imitation
of nature, even by
rendering the changing
qualities of the light
and of the colours as
the Impressionists did.!
From then on, the
colours themselves and
the way to fit them
together prevailed.!
Back home in Paris,
Sérusier showed this
painting to his friends,
who were to be known
as the
“Nabis” (prophets in
Hebrew). For them, it
was like a revelation
and so they called this
painting “The
Talisman”.!
Global International Flows Overview
Geopolitics: 47.77% - Economy: 28.20% - Society: 12.46% - Sciences & technologies: 5.94% - Climate & environment: 5.62%
As expected, both prevailing fields relate to geopolitical and
economic issues. Nevertheless, we notice that the information
flows regarding politics and geopolitics are much greater than
those about economic topics.
It appears as a general tendency during the last 12 months, if
we except March 2009 when both fields were almost equal:
geopolitics, 36.60%; economy, 33.74% . This tendency highly
reverses from the next month. Indeed, in April geopolitics
represents 42.27% of the global information flows, then
46.68% in May, 49.92% in June, whereas economy represents
27%, 25.63% and 26.78% during the same months.
The breakthrough of the information flows regarding society
topics constitutes the notable event of the last 12 months.
Below 10% until September 2008, they come to the fore with
16.76% in October 2008. They are over 20% between
November 2008 and February 2009, and thus they are almost
equal to the information flows regarding economy.
Nevertheless, since March, those flows related to society pass
again under the 20% mark, then decreasing steadily: 18.95%
in March, 18.90% in April, 14.71% in May, 13.09% in May and
12.46% in July.
5
Information Flows Overview: Economy & Geopolitics
Politics: 30.92% - International Relationships: 28.08% - Finance: 17.59% - World Economy: 10.13% - Industry: 8.09% - Security Defence : 3.87% - Europe : 1.31%
The
global tendencies are confirmed when observing the
different segmentations which constitute the geopolitical and
economic areas. Indeed, concerning the geopolitical area, the
topics, which relate to politics and international relationships,
are clearly over those which relate to financial and world
economy issues, respectively 30.2% and 28.08% concerning the
first ones and 17.59% and 10.13% concerning the others.
By considering the last ten months trend, we notice that the
information flows about finance and international relationships
come to the fore during spring 2009. This fact can be linked
with the G20 summit, on the second of April. From spring, this
raise was not reconsidered. The flows regarding both topics
kept growing, at the expense of topics related to world
economy but not of those concerning politics.
6
During the last months, we can also notice the stability of the
flows about security and defence, as well as the stability of the
topics related to Europe - around 1% - and the relatively small
part of the topics dealing with industrial issues, if we except an
increase up to 10% of the international flows, in June.
May we come to the following conclusion? In a background of
world economic crisis, this most visible consequence of the
financial crisis second wave, dated from the week of the 14th
of September 2008, and facing as many questions as answers
required by the public, did the political sphere surpass the
financial and economic sphere, in the strictest sense? In any
case, the map projection of the international information flows
goes clearly this way.
Information Flows Overview: Climate & Environment
Raw Materials: 34.20% - Sustainable Development: 25.21% - Agriculture: 14.37% - Environment: 10.82% - Global Warming: 7.02% Bioenergy: 5.46% - Water: 1.91% - Biodiversity: 1.02%
In
July, the overview of the Climate and Environment
information flows confirm the last 12 months results. Four
topics clearly prevail: raw materials, environment, agriculture
and sustainable development. Regarding this last topic, it is
meant in a broad sense and not only in an environmental
perspective.
These information flows come from the World Bank, research
centres focusing on development issues and several African
media, among others. They all confirm that we set in the 3F
triptych, i.e. Food, Fuel and Finance. In a global and convergent
world, the observers, analysts and political decision-makers do
emphasize the interaction and mutual impacts between
poverty, climate change and impacts of the world economic
crisis on development.
In red, the ice-caps melting zone.
©By courtesy of NASA
7
Information Flows Overview: Sciences & Technologies
ITC: 27.35% - Sciences: 24.31% - Physics & chemistry: 23.11% - Aeronautics & Space: 16.56% - Biotechnology: 5% - Nuclear: 1.89%
- Nanotechnology : 1.78%
If
we except the scientific general information, three topics
prevail when considering the international information flows:
ITC, physics and chemistry, aeronautics and space. Nevertheless
these results have to be qualified because of the current
convergence dynamics. So, information concerning ITC, physics
and chemistry can also contain sub-information related to
biotechnologies or nanotechnologies, for instance.
However the growing momentum of the information about ITC,
physics and chemistry constitutes the most noteworthy fact for
the last twelve months.
This fact has more to do with massive releases about numerous
researches, progresses and diverse applications than with a
sudden breakthrough related to those topics.
The amount of information about space for the 10 last months
results from divers causes: the NASA communication offensive
8
which aimed to get the needed budgets to enable its Moon and
Mars exploration programs, in particular human programs; the
preparation of the first lunar landing mission, Apollo 11, both
events obviously linked; just as much a proactive ESA
communication campaign, in particular about its new
astronauts’ presentation; the regular releases coming from the
Chinese and Indian Space Agencies, which make no secret of
their interest for Moon exploration. In addition, both air
crashes of Air France Rio - Paris flight and of Yemenia airbus
influence the information flows related to this field.
Concerning ITC, physics and chemistry, we must notice the
richness of the researches carried out in various fields and
niches as well as the one of their applications, although theses
researches seem mainly focused on medical and environmental
fields.
Information Flows Overview: Society
Human Rights: 40.80% - Territories: 20.18% - Health: 20.07% - Knowledge: 10.96% - Globalisation: 3.78% - Education: 2.17% Foresight: 1.10% - Tourism: 0.37%
In July, the tendency of the information flows related to Society
topics is consistent with the ten last months tendency. The
topics about human rights prevail. Those regarding health are
never under the 20% mark (20.16% in January and 20.23% in
February), although we must notice that the information
concerning territories lightly exceed the health ones, in July.
Unexpectedly, considering the last months, we don’t observe
any peak of information related to health, in general, neither
in April (beginning of the swine flu epidemic) nor afterwards.
In May, compared with April, we even observe a decline: 25%
of the flows in April against 21.9% in May.
On the other hand, within the health area, the number of
documents about the swine flu steadily increases, in absolute
value as well as in percentage: 97 documents in April,
i.e. 2.46% of the documents entered in the health
segmentation database, 451 in May, i.e. 13.44%, 1461 in June,
i.e. 42%, but only 551 in July, i.e. 24.6%.
In spite of the current news, the swine flu epidemic does not
result in a particular focus of the information flows, at least in
the health segmentation. It doesn’t eclipse other topics
addressed in this field.
During the last months, another noteworthy event was the
emergence of information flows dealing with topics related to
territories and to knowledge, although to a lesser extent
concerning the second one. Four factors explain this emergence:
a massive inf or mation flow about infr as tructur es,
transportation and logistics, coming from Africa; the
information regarding the motor industry crisis; the surveys of
territories’ inequality in view of
the
economic
crisis
F
9
Information Flows Overview: Society
Migrant worker!
by Tim Boucher!
and of their capacities in the perspective of an
economic revival; the documents dealing with the
workers’ mobility, the migrants, once again in the
view of the economic crisis.
Despite the documents related to knowledge never
pass the 10% mark, they bring in their wake
information dealing with education.
On the other hand, we notice that the information
flows concerning globalisation and foresight remain
low, within the society area at least, in July as during
the last months.
10
Information Flows Overview: Hot Spots
11
Information Flows Overview: Hot Spots
In July, a central mass draws
attention when observing the
proximity relationships map.
We can observe a conjunction
where not less than twelve 21st
Century transformation areas
and topics cross and combine.
Six of them relate to climate
and environment, three belong
to the politics and geopolitics
field and three are about
economic matters. It concerns
the following 21st Century
transformation areas and
segmentations.!
Climate and Environment: global warming, environment,
sustainable development, bioenergy, water, raw materials.
Geopolitics/Politics:: international relationships, politics,
security /defence.
Economy : finances, world economy, industry.
Within this mass, some segmentations show higher degree
of aggregation than others. It concerns :
12
Security – Defence: conjunction with global warming,
environment, sustainable development, raw materials,
international relationships, politics.
Global warming: conjunction with sustainable development,
raw materials, security/defence, international relationships,
politics, finance.
Raw materials: conjunction with sustainable development,
global warming, security/defence, finance, industry.
Information Flows Overview: Hot Spots
Finances: conjunction with raw materials, sustainable
development, global warming, security/defence, industry.
Sustainable development: conjunction with raw materials,
global warming, security/defence, finance, industry.
Politics: conjunction with environment, global warming,
bioenergy, international relationships, security/defence.
International relationships: conjunction with global
warming, environment, sustainable development, security/
defence, politics.
The lower degrees of aggregation concern:
World economy: conjunction with water, bioenergy,
environment.
Water: conjunction with bioenergy, world economy.
We must notice two “trails” in addition of this central
mass. They are like completing this “nebula”, where
the following segmentations combine, with high
degrees of aggregation: “Europe”, “Health” and
“Human Rights”.
Europe: conjunction with global warming, sustainable
d e ve l o p m e n t , r a w m a t e r i a l s , s e c u r i t y / d e f e n c e ,
international relationships, politics, finance and health.
Health: conjunction with global warming, sustainable
d e ve l o p m e n t , r a w m a t e r i a l s , s e c u r i t y / d e f e n c e ,
international relationships, politics, Europe and finance.
Human Rights: conjunction with bioenergy, environment,
international relationships, politics, world economy.
We have to notice that the higher degree of proximity
relationships occurs between the « Security/Defence »
segmentation and the « Health » one,
whereas the
“Europe” segmentation and the “Global Warming” one show
the closest proximity. Bioenergy and Human rights also
show very close proximity.
!
This map results from information flows, which clearly
reveal that the « Climate - Environment » area, at least
their segmentations, constitutes the factor of dynamics in
the formation of this mass.
Indeed, the topics raised can be as diverse as political,
economic, dealing with defence, etc., they always involve
climatic extensions with repercussions that extend to other
segmentations such as education, health, human rights…
These data are to be considered in the view of the
«Climate/Environment» information flows, which globally
are the lowest one in July 2009.
So, we face an apparent paradox: very low flows on one
hand, but a very high dynamics of aggregation on the other
hand.
We could formulate this observation as follows: the
influence is
not necessarily proportional to a massive
information supposed to confer power.
13
Information Flows Overview: Hot Spots
In order to complete this overview, the July background of
the main brought to light current news has to be given.
The American military budget that some people compare
with the climate and environment-orientated budget,
arguing that if global warming is becoming a factor of
security risk, even according the army staff analysts, so it
would be more relevant to grant budgets to the risk
prevention than to weapons and means of military
response in case of crisis.
The American Senate works about “Moving America toward
a Clean Energy Economy and Reducing Global Warming
Pollution”, on the heels of the Waxman-Markey Bill.
SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) talks about
making companies to do environmental reporting in order
to let consumers know what kinds of risks — financial and
otherwise — climate change may pose to the bottom line.
Preparations for COP15, United Nations Climate Change
Conference Copenhagen, December 2009.
Diverse initiatives linking environment security and
reconstruction in Iraq as well as in Africa, for instance.
14
July 2009: the US
domestic affairs
prevail beside issues
related to climate
change and to
development.
Neptune’s Horses, Walter Crane!
Alte Pinakothek, Munich
© International Focus - August 2009
The reproduction of all documents published in this review is authorized only upon request, in writing to contact@inter-focus.com. For
specific copyrighted materials, permission should be obtained from the copyright owner prior to use.
15