The Carbon Cycle Climate Models 20th Century Climate Change Climate vs. Weather Sensitivity Tipping Points Feedbacks Greenhouse Effect What is a Greenhouse Gas? Buildup of Greenhouse Gases Anthropogenic Sources Sea level Ecosystems Drought, Heat waves, Fires Snow pack, Glaciers, Water supply 21st Century Climate Projections Global Warming Natural Sources Extreme Events Climate Impacts Ocean Acidification Hurricanes Climate Models 20th Century Climate Change Climate vs. Weather Sensitivity Tipping Points Feedbacks Greenhouse Effect What is a Greenhouse Gas? Buildup of Greenhouse Gases Anthropogenic Sources Carbon Cycle Fossil fuel reserves Oil, Coal, Tar sands, Natural Gas, Methane hydrates Sea level Ecosystems Drought, Heat waves, Fires Snow pack, Glaciers, Water supply 21st Century Climate Projections Global Warming Natural Sources Extreme Events Climate Impacts Ocean Acidification Hurricanes Components of the “Earth system” anthrosphere (us) atmosphere (air) hydrosphere (water) biosphere (life) cryosphere (ice) lithosphere (crust) Lights are a fitting sumbol of the Anthrosphere The Atmosphere shows up clearly in this view of the linb of the Earth. This SeaWIfs image shows both the marie and terrestrial biosphere. On the ocean the green areas are indicative of high chlorophyll content. They generally correspond to regions of upwelling, which bring up nutrients into the sunlight where phyto- (plant) plankto can graze on them. The distribution of upwelling, in turn, is determined by the winds. On land the darker greens correspond to rich vegetation. Materials in the Earth’s crust are continually being recycled on a time scale of tens to hundreds of millions of years. The crust under the oceans is being subducted into the mantle and being replaced by new crust expelled from the mantle by sea floor spreading. water vapor, CO2, and other gases in the mantle are continuously being injected into the atmosphere in volcanic activity. Components of the “Earth system” atmosphere oceans biosphere cryosphere crust mantle Atmosphere Oceans Biosphere Crust Water, carbon, and other substances are continuously being exchanged among the various components of the Earth system. The Carbon Cycle short term organic (plants and animals) long term organic (fossil fuels) long term inorganic (limestone) carbon reservoirs implications for global warming In this lecture we consider specifically the carbon cycle. Short term organic carbon cycle “The breathing of the biosphere” Inhale: photosynthesis Exhale: decay Plants are responsible for all of the photosynthesis. Animals and humans eat a small fraction of the plants. They give carbon back to the atmosphere both by breathing (respiration) and decay. The time scale for carbon to go through this loop ranges from days for plankton blooms, to a year for annual plants, to 3 years for the needles of conifers. The summer “drawdown” of CO2 by the Northern Hemisphere land biosphere Photosynthesis in spring/summer when sunlight is available... Decay occurs year-round Each year ~10% of the atmospheric reservoir of CO2 is exchanged with the biosphere Carbon stored in woody plants may stay in the biosphere for decades or even for centuries. Deforestation puts carbon back in the atmosphere; afforestation takes it out. Net primary productivity (photosynthesis) June 2002 Net primary productivity (NPP) tends to be higher over land than over the oceans. Note the maxima over the boreal (northern) forests. These peaks are visible only in late spring and early summer. Note also the regions of relatively high productivity over the oceans, which correspond up the same upwelling zones pointed out in Slide #7. Based on NASA MODIS imagery which compares the reflected radiation at two wavelengths, one of which is in the red part of the spectrum, where energy is absorbed by plants to produce photosynthesis. This figure is for annual mean NPP based on NASA MODIS imagery as in the previous slide. Note that the boreal forests aren’t as pronounced because they’re active only during late spring and early summer. World Resources Institute. Reservoirs 800 Atmosphere 80 each 600year 160 Leaves 600 Tree trunks 1500 ???? ???? Marine Biosphere Soils and sediments Organic carbon rocks Simplified “box diagram” showing the major carbon reservoirs in the biosphere and the mass of carbon stored in them in units of GtC. The thickness of the arrows provides a measure of the relative rates of exchange of carbon between the reservoirs. Residence times 800 Atmosphere 80 each year 600 160 years 600 ???? days, weeks decades/centuries 1500 Biosphere centuries, millennia hundreds of millions of years Orranic carbon in the deeper reservoirs have much longer residence times because the reservoirs themselves are large and the rate of exchange of carbon is slow. For example, organic carbon is stored in a plankton bloom for only a few days while it may reside in the Earth’s crust for nundreds of millions of years. Formation of coal Two schematics illustrating how coal is formed. From sources on the web. Fossil fuel deposits coal oil gas coal map from www.ldeo.columbia.edu/.../ U4735/lectures/12.html Total known fossil fuel deposits 4500 Gt Oil shale / Tar sands Major deposits in Alberta (already under intensive development: above) and in Utah. Short and long term organic carbon cycles in nature. Organic carbon in rocks is oxidized with the rocks weather, returning the carbon to the atmosphere in the form of CO2. The long term organic carbon cycle The long term organic carbon cycle. fossil fuel burning Short circuit! a few hundred million years a few hundred years Coal formation (left) has occurred over a time span of hudreds of millions of years. The word’s coal reserves are being burned (right panel) on a time scale of hundreds of years. Carbonate formation The long term inorganic carbon cycle The electron microscope image shows a tine shell-forming creature. These creatures play a central role in the inorganic carbon cycle. Carbonate formation First CO2 dissolves in seawater, forming carbonic acid This carbonic acid dissociates in the water, releasing hydrogen ions and bicarbonate: Some of the bicarbonate ions combine with dissolved calcium ions that enter the oceans through the weathering of rocks to form calcium carbonate Calcium carbonate is limestone (chalk). It’s also the main ingredient in TUMS and other antacids. This reaction is what forms the skeletons of certain species of phyto (plant) plankton. Carbonate formation removes carbon from the atmosphere-ocean reservoir and puts it in long term storage. This is the process that will eventually remove the carbon that we are putting into the combined atmosphere-ocean right now. Carbonate formation is a slow process because it requires calcium ions that come from weathering. Limestone cliffs (sedimentary rocks) Limestone versus marble The long term inorganic carbon cycle shells limestone dissolving Part of the inorganic carbon cycle The long term inorganic carbon cycle also subduction, metamorphosis, and volcanism shells limestone dissolving The complete inorganic carbon cycle. The long term inorganic carbon cycle Calcium ions in the oceans are supplied by the weathering of carbonate-silicate rocks brought to the surface in sea floor spreading. The calcium ions in these rocks has been recycled. Calcium carbonate (limestone) deposits on the sea floor are subducted in the mantle aling plate boundaries like the one a few hundred miles off the Washington coast. As the limestone heats up it undergoes metamorphosis. The carbon is expelled in the form of CO2 in volcanic eruptions. The calcium reacts with quartz to form calcium silicate. Eventually the “metamorphic” calcium silicate rock returns to the surface in sea floor spreading and makes its way onto land where it becomes subject to erosion. The calcium ios are carried by rivers into the ocean where they become available to shell-forming phytoplankton, thereby completing the cycle. The carbon reservoirs too dilute to be used as fossil fuels Capacities given in kilograms per square meter averaged over the surface of the Earth. Only the reservoirs of organic carbon are listed here. The inorganic carbonate reservoir is 80,000 kg per sq. m. What are the implications for global warming? Residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere is difficult to interpret. Roughly 10% of the carbon in the fossil fuel reservoir has been burned so far and at the current rate it will take us 500 years to burn the rest of it. Most of the carbon in the fossil fuel reservoir is in the form of coal. Burning all known coal deposits would add to the atmosphere-ocean reservoir a mass of carbon roughly equivalent to 5 x the carbon presently in the atmosphere and 8 x the pre-industrial level. The true size of the fossil fuel reservoir may be larger but it’s hard to say by how much because we don’t know how much oil shale and methane hydrates we will be able to utilize. Were it not for the biosphere, and especially the marine biosphere, most of the Earth’s carbon would be in the form of atmospheric CO2 as it is on Venus. From Chapter 7 of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)