Peak oil and climate ch
ange: from low carbon t
o low energy futures
Dr. John Barry
School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy
Queen’s University Belfast
‘Planetary Boundaries:
Exploring the safe
operating space for
humanity in the
Anthropocene’
(Nature, 461 : 472 –
475, Sept 24 - 2009)
Climate Change
Ozone depletion
Atmospheric
Aerosol Loading
Biogeochemical
loading: Global
N & P Cycles
Planetary
Boundaries
Rate of
Biodiversity Loss
Ocean acidification
Global Freshwater Use
Land System
Change
Chemical Pollution
Background
The Age of Oil
2012
1930
1970
2000
2050
Our Great Grand Parents
7 Generations Span The Age of Oil
Our Grand Parents
Our Parents
Our Generation
20
Our Children
80
Our Grand Children
Our Great Grand Children
1930
1970
2000
2050
2100
Oil addiction....
Peak oil and energy
Insecurity
We need to decrease our
dependence on oil, coal
and gas
Not just electricity, but
heating, transport and our
food system is dependent
upon a non-renewable,
climate-change causing
energy source.
“We need to leave oil before
oil leaves us”, Fatih Biriol,
International Energy
Association
Humanity’s Top Ten
Problems for next 50 years
1. Energy
2. Water
3. Food
4. Environment
5. Poverty
6. Terrorism & War
7. Disease
8. Education
9. Democracy
10. Population
2012: 7 Billion people
2050: 9-10 Billion people
Three Great Challenges of the 21st
Century
Energy, Climate, Food
The Perfect Storm
It’s time to
change direction
SS Global Economy
From low carbon to low
energy future
Low carbon and decarbonisation transition –
everywhere
Low energy transition – developed/over developed
minority world
Part of ‘contraction and convergence’ equitable
strategy to combat climate change globally
Reduction in carbon emissions by minority world
(contraction) to allow majority world to increase
within global threshold to eventual convergence over
time (convergence)
Contraction and Convergence:
Precaution and Equity
Contraction: On the basis of precaution and guided by scientific advice of
IPCC, all governments or regional groupings of governments jointly and
severally agree to observe an atmospheric target. With this it is possible to
calculate the total diminishing amount of greenhouse gases that the world
can emit for each year in the coming century. Whatever the rate chosen, this
event as a whole as “Contraction”.
Convergence: On the basis of equity, convergence means that each year’s
ration of this global emissions budget can be shared so that each country or
group of countries progressively converges on the same allocation per
inhabitant by an agreed date, for example by 2050.
This recognises the principle of globally equal rights per capita to the ‘global
commons’ of the atmosphere, but achieved by smooth transition.
Onus on minority world (‘broadest shoulders’ and cause
Contraction and
Convergence
 Contraction: Definition of global emission path (e.g. 450ppmv)
 Convergence: Per capita emissions of all countries converge by 2050
Emissions per capita (tCO2eq./person)
30
Annex I
25
Global total
Non-Annex I
20
15
10
5
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Difficulty of replacing oil
with renewables
A fully renewable energy society – a society with less
energy
‘Low carbon’ – way of including nuclear power
What does a a fully renewable energy society and
economy look like?
Cubic Mile of Oil/Year
Political Implications: the
downsides of oil addiction
E
Responses to peak oil
Fredrichs (2009) – historical study of responses to peak oil
1. Predatory nationalism – pre WWII Japan
2. Community resilience – post-Soviet collapse Cuba
3. Authoritarianism – North Korea and nuclear power
Where do we see evidence of all three today?
Need for major infrastructural planning for a transition
from a carbon-based economy
Decades long transition – promise of the ‘Green New Deal’
strategy (new economics foundation, 2008)
Low energy future I
Energy descent planning
Implications of lower energy use across all major
sectors – from housing, heating to food production
Enhances energy security
Focuses on demand side not supply side
Very politically challenging – ‘planned retreat from
fossil fuels’ at both global (Contraction and
convergence) and national and regional levels
Low energy future II
Shifts objective of public policy to increasing human
flourishing with less not more energy
How do we decouple rising energy use from human
flourishing and well-being?
Low energy future for the minority world…thinking
beyond conventional ‘economic growth’…but that’s
another story….