Shaping the
Nation’s Future
Informing Solutions
for Tomorrow’s
Homeland Security Challenges
2012 Annual Report to Congress
HSSAI, iStock, FEMA
Table of Contents
Letter from HSSAI Director Phil Anderson
1
Taking on Complex Problems
3
A Trusted Partner
4
What We Do
5
Maintaining a Knowledge Base to Support DHS
14
Apex STORE
19
The Core Research Program
20
Interdepartmental Relationships
22
Looking Toward the Future
24
US Coast Guard Visiting Fellow
26
Our Facility
27
Our Staff
28
iii
iv
Scott Ferrell/Congressional Quarterly/Getty Images
HSSAI
Letter from HSSAI Director Phil Anderson
Federally-funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) have brought
technical knowledge and expertise from the private sector to bear on some of the
most complex problems facing government over the past 65 years.
As the first homeland security FFRDC, the Homeland Security Institute (HSI) was
conceived in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. As the nation came to grips
with the implications of those attacks, it became clear that a robust knowledge
base was needed to inform decisions about how best to secure the homeland.
In its 2002 report, Making the Nation Safer, the National Research Council (NRC)
recommended creation of a dedicated not-for-profit studies and analysis institute
for homeland security. The Homeland Security Act of 2002 created the Department of Homeland Security
(DHS) and directed the new Secretary to “establish a Federally Funded Research and Development Center”
using the NRC report as a model to define the scope of its efforts. Two years later, in April 2004, HSI began
operations in support of DHS.
A new competition for the DHS studies and analysis FFRDC was initiated in the fall of 2008 and a second
contract to operate the FFRDC as the “Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute” (HSSAI) was
awarded to Analytic Services Inc. in March 2009. As an FFRDC, HSSAI is chartered by the Secretary of
Homeland Security to provide independent analyses, free from conflict of interest, to the extended homeland
security enterprise.
We live in a time of increasing complexity, both in terms of the environment that affects our nation’s safety and
security, as well as the necessary solutions to address myriad challenges in the years ahead. HSSAI’s primary
objective is to conduct analyses that inform homeland security decisions that will shape the nation’s future.
HSSAI employs a multidisciplinary team approach to address disparate stakeholders’ perspectives and to
solve problems from a systems perspective — integrating policy, economic, technical, operational, and other
factors. We pride ourselves on delivering a positive return on the government’s investment. Working closely
with our DHS primary sponsor, the Under Secretary for Science and Technology, our approach envisions a
mutual commitment, in which the analyst and decision-maker work closely together to create new insights.
By focusing carefully on the problem to be solved, we provide products that are timely, cost-effective, and
impactful. Our bottom line: more informed and better decisions on matters of critical importance to the nation.
We deeply appreciate the trust and confidence of the senior leaders and hardworking practitioners from
across the homeland security enterprise that we have been so privileged to support this year.
Very Respectfully,
1
2
ICE, CBP, iStock images
Dean Matthews / U.S. Coast Guard, iStock images
Taking on Complex Problems
DHS faces enormous challenges. Its missions — securing borders, enforcing immigration laws, preventing
terrorism, safeguarding cyberspace, and preparing for disasters — include some of the most vexing problems
facing the nation. DHS pursues these missions while confronting a shifting operational landscape, evolving
threats, and a more austere fiscal climate.
HSSAI exists to help DHS tackle these complex problems. Our work informs decisions that keep the nation
safer by providing program assessments, risk analyses, and decision analyses from a trusted partner. Having
directly supported the department for more than eight years, we provide stability and institutional memory in
the midst of uncertainty and change. In the past year, our work has been used and cited throughout DHS, on
Capitol Hill, and in other government agencies that support homeland security missions.
The projects featured in this report are just a small sampling of our work. They represent the ways in which we
help DHS and its partners tackle the issues of today while looking ahead to meet the challenges of tomorrow.
3
Bill Koplitz / FEMA
A Trusted Partner
HSSAI serves DHS as a trusted agent, safeguarding sensitive information and avoiding conflicts of
interest. This trust is founded upon two key commitments: our commitment to providing independent,
objective analyses, and our commitment to maintaining a staff that possesses the knowledge and
expertise that DHS needs. As a result of this longstanding partnership, HSSAI has become a repository
of institutional memory for DHS, drawing upon history to inform future decisions.
4
HSSAI
What We Do
As the homeland security environment changes, HSSAI adapts to provide analyses that meet DHS’s
evolving needs. In the past year, our work has included in-depth decision analyses, program reviews,
and operations analyses that combine the expertise and objectivity befitting an FFRDC. We have also
provided responsive analysis to help DHS address fast-emerging issues. The following pages provide
examples of each type of effort.
5
Josh Denmark / CBP
Informing Decisions
As the homeland security environment grows in complexity, so do the decisions that policy makers
and program managers must make. Limited budgets make these decisions harder and require a
better understanding of trade-offs. HSSAI’s analyses help inform these decisions.
Decision Analysis
Analyses of alternatives (AoAs) and alternatives
analyses have become cornerstones of HSSAI’s
efforts to help the government identify and compare
alternative solutions to a problem. HSSAI’s first
major AoA supported the Secure Border Initiative
network and examined different ways
to provide surveillance at the nation’s
borders. From there the practice
has expanded. In 2010-2011, HSSAI
completed an AoA to identify and
compare ways in which the U.S. Coast
Guard and Customs and Border
Protection (CBP) could enhance their
combined ability to detect nuclear or
radiological materials aboard small
vessels.
6
In 2012, HSSAI analysts completed several major
projects that analyzed the efficiency and feasibility of
alternative solutions to particular problems. One was
an AoA that helped the Domestic Nuclear Detection
Office (DNDO) identify the best systems to prevent
radiological and nuclear materials from entering
the country at international rail ports of entry. Our
team used operational scenarios to
evaluate the cost and operational
effectiveness of different alternatives.
The team’s findings support both
strategic policy decisions and
resource allocation at DNDO.
In a separate study, HSSAI performed
an alternatives analysis that compared
different options for detecting and
classifying radiological materials in
HSSAI
cargo containers as they are transferred from ship
to rail at the nation’s seaports. The study helped
DNDO understand the strengths and weaknesses of
different solutions in terms of performance, cost, and
efficiency.
To ensure that these types of analyses continue to
support DHS decision makers, HSSAI is creating a
guidebook on how to scope, organize, and complete
decision-focused AoAs and alternatives analyses.
This will not only expand HSSAI’s ability to provide
these types of studies, it will also help DHS decision
makers understand where such analyses can
support their decisions.
Independent Peer Review
Expert Insights
In addition to maintaining our own cadre of experts,
HSSAI also cultivates relationships with external
experts whose knowledge may be particularly useful
to DHS. Our quadrennial Biodefense Net Assessment
for the DHS S&T Chemical and Biological Defense
Division brings all this expertise together. The project
seeks forward-looking, non-consensus perspectives
and innovative solutions to biodefense issues.
HSSAI’s ability to work with experts both inside
and outside the traditional biodefense community
ensures a broad range of viewpoints that go beyond
established thinking on how to address a critical
security challenge.
As an independent partner, HSSAI is uniquely
positioned to offer objective reviews of DHS projects.
In 2012, we helped the Science and Technology
(S&T) Directorate’s Chemical and Biological Defense
Division assess five ongoing projects to develop
adaptive adversary models. Our external perspective
helped inform decisions about which projects should
proceed and how they might improve.
After several years in the private sector, Jennifer decided it was
time to return to her passion of working in national and homeland
security analysis. The work here at HSSAI builds on her
experience both as a White House fellow and at Sandia National
Laboratory. Seeking an environment similar to that of the national
labs, in which the organization has a special relationship with
the government, Jennifer made her way to HSSAI. Jennifer has
been tackling complex nuclear nonproliferation work in the
form of an analysis of alternatives for DHS’s Domestic Nuclear
Detection Office. These analyses afford decision- makers solid
data upon which they can make informed decisions about which
alternatives are the best to meet their mission requirements. For
a good portion of the past year, Jennifer also managed a division
of HSSAI analysts, a challenging additional duty, but one that
has provided many opportunities to broaden her experience.
“It is a real pleasure to work with such talented
and dedicated teams.”
Jennifer Jacobs
Distinguished Analyst
Policy Analysis Division
2 years with HSSAI
BS, Engineering Physics, United States Military Academy
MS, Environmental Engineering, University of Florida
PhD, Nuclear Engineering, University of New Mexico
7
Josh Denmark / CBP
Program Reviews
Understanding how well different programs are performing can facilitate the kind of difficult resourceallocation decisions that tightened budgets require. HSSAI’s ability to take an objective look at inputs,
outputs, authorities, and processes allows us to provide honest answers to these tough questions.
Program Analysis
HSSAI has had a longstanding relationship with the
DHS Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation.
Over the years, we have provided many independent
assessments of program performance that informed
resource decisions. In 2012, a team of HSSAI
analysts developed a prototype model to evaluate
cost effectiveness of alternative screening and
inspection tools at land ports of entry. The team also
performed reviews of best practices for recapitalizing
major investments throughout DHS, using the
Transportation Security Administration’s Electronic
Baggage Screening Program as a case study.
8
In a separate effort, HSSAI helped the DHS S&T
Infrastructure Protection and Disaster Management
Division optimize its research and development
investments into seismic hazards. In a series of panel
discussions with federal interagency representatives,
HSSAI facilitated a review of current seismic hazard
investments and priorities to identify research
opportunities. HSSAI used this review to propose
a research pathway for DHS S&T to advance the
science of earthquake forecasting, alerting, and
warning.
Portfolio Reviews
Getting the most out of research and development
investment requires periodic reviews of how those
investments are performing. In past years, HSSAI
helped the Homeland Security Advanced Research
Projects Agency (HSARPA) assess its research and
development portfolio. In 2012, HSSAI helped the
DHS S&T Chemical and Biological Defense Division
review its research and development programs
geared toward agricultural and chemical/biological
defense. This wide-ranging effort included HSSAI’s
own staff as well as external experts.
HSSAI
Operations Analysis
DHS personnel are on the front lines of each of the department’s five missions. It follows that DHS
decision makers need to understand the operational implications of their choices in order to be
successful. HSSAI studies can provide this perspective.
Identifying Mission Needs
Measuring Operational Value
A clearer picture of the operating environment can
inform decisions to direct resources to the areas of
greatest need, as well as help monitor the effects
of those decisions. HSSAI is currently helping DHS
develop an efficient, cost-effective method for
reliably estimating the cross-border flow of illegal
immigrants in several locations. The aim is to identify
places where additional resources might have the
greatest impact.
As dollars become scarcer, it is necessary to
understand the operational value that each program
provides. In some cases, that value is difficult to
measure. In a multilayered security system, for
example, the contributions of an individual layer
may be less tangible. This is the problem HSSAI is
tackling as it helps the Federal Air Marshal Service
evaluate the risk-based assumptions that inform
the deployment of air marshals on domestic and
international flights.
9
U.S. Coast Guard; FEMA
Policy Analysis
The successful implementation of any policy requires an understanding of how programs,
organizations, and external factors interrelate. Creating new policies also necessitates the ability to
see how those relationships may evolve in the future. HSSAI’s emphasis on systems thinking enables
us to understand complex systems and provide informed recommendations.
10
Applied Systems Thinking
Forward-Looking Studies
When a new policy affects multiple organizations or
levels of government, the first step in implementation
is often to ensure that everyone has a shared
understanding of the policy. The introduction
of Presidential Policy Directive 8: National
Preparedness (PPD-8) changed the way that the
nation views and plans for hazards and disasters.
HSSAI diagrammed the relationships between the
different components, stakeholders, and tenets
of PPD-8, and it illustrated how PPD-8 related to
existing doctrine. Understanding these interactions
allows the Federal Emergency Management Agency
the opportunity to bring its wide-ranging policies and
doctrine related to preparedness into alignment.
To help DHS prepare for the next Quadrennial
Homeland Security Review, our analysts are
developing complex causal-loop diagrams that
describe the dynamics of six major homeland
security
challenges:
terrorism,
pandemics,
natural disasters, counterfeit goods trade, human
smuggling, and narco-trafficking. Through these
diagrams, called “system maps,” HSSAI is analyzing
how social, technological, environmental, economic,
and political factors may influence each challenge.
Understanding these dynamics in the context of
current and future trends will help DHS as it outlines
its strategic vision for the next four years.
HSSAI
Because of our longstanding support for DHS,
HSSAI is attuned to trends and changes within the
homeland security mission space. Our analysts’
operational knowledge of emergency response
allowed HSSAI to identify potential capabilities
and technologies that could help first responders
understand and react to future incidents. HSSAI
identified investment priorities based upon potential
changes in the future response environment, the
capability requirements imposed by those changes,
and input from the first responder community.
Since joining HSSAI from ANSER, our sister business unit
within Analytic Services, Mukta has sought out tasks that
make headlines. She quickly joined an effort to help the
National Protection and Programs Directorate examine the
risk assessment methodology that DHS employs to rank the
risk posed by chemical facilities. Mukta also worked on a task
for Immigration and Customs Enforcement to document the
lessons learned from merging the customs and immigration
functions during the formation of DHS. This document will help
the Panamanian government as it considers a similar merger.
“HSSAI has allowed me to leverage my skills and
experience of the last 10 years on a daily basis.
This, combined with the opportunity to work
on important and relevant programs with an
intelligent and diverse group of people, has been
the most rewarding part of my career at HSSAI.”
Mukta Agrawal
Senior Analyst
Business Enterprise Analysis Division
6 months with HSSAI and ~2 years with ANSER
BS, Bioengineering, University of Pennsylvania
MS, Bioethics, University of Pennsylvania
JD, Drexel University
11
iStock
Responsive Analysis
The rapidly changing homeland security environment requires that DHS and its FFRDC remain agile.
Thus, in addition to providing in-depth studies and analyses, HSSAI provides nimble analytic support
that keeps pace with DHS’s operational tempo.
Quick-Turn Analyses
When Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
asked HSSAI to develop the basic training curriculum
for over 300 intelligence professionals in the
Homeland Security Investigations Directorate, there
was a catch: the curriculum needed to be in place
in just four months. HSSAI summoned a team of
nearly 40 analysts to conduct background research;
assemble source material; and draft lesson slides,
instructor manuals, and student guides. The course
consisted of more than 40 lessons and nearly 200
instructional hours. It covered such broad-ranging
topics as critical thinking, the history of intelligence,
and ICE database tools.
12
Because of their timeliness, some quick-turn studies
can have a significant impact. In an eight-week
assessment of DHS’s BioWatch Gen-3 Program
Acquisition, HSSAI was able provide a fairly
comprehensive program assessment that resolved
conflicting viewpoints about the program’s direction.
The results of this study were briefed to the DHS
Secretary and cited in a hearing before the House
Homeland Security Committee Subcommittee
on
Emergency
Preparedness,
Response
and Communications and Subcommittee on
Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection and Security
Technologies.
HSSAI
Forward-Deployed Analysts
At the request of our sponsors, HSSAI positions
“forward analysts” in offices throughout DHS. These
analysts sit beside policymakers and program
managers every day, keeping abreast of changes in
the operating environment or needs of our sponsors.
These analysts provide immediate analytic support
and serve as a conduit to a broad array of HSSAI
resources. It is not uncommon for these analysts
to identify issues where prior HSSAI work meets an
existing need. Over the past year, offices hosting
HSSAI forward analysts included DHS S&T, the
National Protection and Programs Directorate, and
the Office of Policy.
With a background in the fire service, Eric always expected to
follow a “traditional” emergency management path. However,
the opportunity to develop policy and shape decisions in
evolving and emerging fields drew Eric to cybersecurity, critical
infrastructure protection, and information sharing. One of Eric’s
most recent efforts has focused on assessing whether current
approaches to designating critical infrastructure consider
reliance on information technologies. At HSSAI, Eric has built
upon his operational experience by focusing on the real-world
impact of cyber and physical risks and how various interventions
(including emergency management and incident response) can
reduce the likelihood and consequence of a catastrophic event.
“HSSAI has provided me with the opportunity
to inform theoretically grounded and actionable
policy decisions while constantly expanding my
knowledge of the field and the unique connections
therein, and in so doing, contributing to the
invaluable and complex mission of DHS to
promote a safe, secure, and resilient United
States.”
Eric Goldstein
Analyst
Policy Analysis Division
2 years with HSSAI
BA, History, University of Illinois
MPP, Georgetown University
13
Brian Glaviano / FEMA
Maintaining a Knowledge Base to Support DHS
HSSAI serves as a repository for DHS’s institutional memory. In addition, our staff has broad experience
supporting multiple DHS organizations and components on a variety of subjects. This combination of
experiences gives us an understanding how DHS has solved problems in the past, and allows us to
share proven repeatable methodologies and known issues across the homeland security enterprise.
Based on this experience, we also identify the types of knowledge that will support homeland security
decisions in the future, and we cultivate expertise in those areas. To this end, we have developed
a workforce with proficiencies in training development, workforce assessment, mission integration,
doctrine development, resiliency, and cybersecurity.
14
iStock, Josh Denmark / CBP, ICE, Bruce Williams-Burden, Pacific Northwest Laboratory
Training Development
DHS faces a dynamic operational environment that requires the ability to provide the existing workforce with
new knowledge, skills, and abilities. Learning management and curriculum analysis have become part of the
fabric of HSSAI’s support to the homeland security enterprise. Building on successes in creating training for
FEMA’s workforce, HSSAI worked on two separate high-impact curriculum development tasks in 2012. In the
first, our team analyzed training requirements for the Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA’s) critical
incident management group, developing a training curriculum and evaluating its effectiveness to improve
TSA’s response to crisis situations. This project drew on both HSSAI’s knowledge of learning management
and a deep pool of insight and experience related to incident management. Bringing the past expertise
to bear, HSSAI analysts also designed the aforementioned six-week curriculum for ICE’s Basic Intelligence
Training. HSSAI continues to develop the knowledge and skills to help other clients with similar needs.
Workforce Assessments
DHS’s greatest asset is its workforce. HSSAI has become a leading provider in studies and analyses related
to understanding, building, and managing the DHS workforce. The proper blend of employees, skills, and
performance management helps ensure an organization can reach its goals in a resource-constrained
environment. Over the past two years, HSSAI has conducted studies and honed its experience in workforce
assessments, beginning with a strategic manpower planning project completed for FEMA.
More recently, an HSSAI workforce integrity study for CBP resulted in the establishment of the agency’s Integrity
Interagency Planning and Coordination Committee. In August 2012, acting CBP Commissioner David Aguilar
told the House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on Government Organization, Efficiency,
and Financial Management that he had instructed the new CBP committee to carry out the recommendations
made in the HSSAI report.
HSSAI also completed a study for the U.S. Coast Guard that analyzed staffing and workload for the National
Strike Force (NSF), which supports preparedness and response efforts related to oil and hazardous-material
pollution incidents in the maritime domain. The HSSAI team refined a model related to the individual NSF strike
teams developed during a previous HSSAI task, performed an independent assessment of a prior workforce
planning construct, developed a manpower model for the National Strike Force Coordination Center (NSFCC),
and delivered model training to each of the three NSF strike teams and the NSFCC staff.
15
HSSAI
Mission Integration
The history of DHS’s creation from many preexisting organizations has at times made it difficult for the
department to take unified action. Though DHS has matured greatly over the last decade, departmental
unification remains a challenge; and in a constrained budget environment, it is a challenge that must be
overcome. HSSAI’s expertise in mission integration can help foster more cohesive efforts throughout DHS.
Working with CBP, HSSAI analysts identified ways in which CBP can maximize the use of resources across
its offices in order to efficiently and effectively execute its mission. The methodological framework developed
as part of this study is being incorporated into a repeatable process that can be employed throughout DHS.
Doctrine Development
HSSAI has had a longstanding relationship with FEMA’s Training, Exercise, and Doctrine (TED) Branch. Over
the years, HSSAI has collaborated with TED to develop FEMA’s base of doctrine, which defines how FEMA
as an organization responds to all-hazards incidents and events. The materials produced by this partnership
serve as the foundation for FEMA’s response operations and represent the first set of integrated doctrine
designed for FEMA’s use. Our four years of continuous support to the doctrine development efforts has
touched all levels of response operations and has allowed our team to build domain expertise and institutional
knowledge upon which FEMA has grown to rely.
Resiliency
For years, HSSAI has supported the homeland security enterprise’s efforts to create a more resilient society. In
2012, HSSAI analysts embarked on an effort to help the DHS Office of Resilience Policy expand the potential
impact, audience, and reach of DHS resilience initiatives. Some of these initiatives take innovative approaches
“I see each project as a series of fun puzzles to
solve. I enjoy the process of decomposing an issue
into its elements, then applying my knowledge
and skills to devise the best solution.”
With a background in international nuclear nonproliferation,
Alexis was drawn to apply her skills in the domestic arena.
HSSAI afforded her that opportunity. Since arriving four years
ago, Alexis has worked on tasks that have spanned the threat
landscape, allowing her to expand her subject matter expertise
in nonproliferation and terrorism-related issues, as well as
broaden her skills in areas such as designing assessment
tools and conducting interviews and high-level briefings. She
has worked closely with both operators and policy makers
alike within DHS and other federal agencies. In supporting the
Department of State, Alexis helped develop and test a proofof-concept tool to assess a country’s capability to enforce its
weapons of mass destruction trade controls. Alexis enjoys
the challenges that these tasks bring, as each project has its
own unique set of issues or problems that need to be solved.
Alexis Zeiger
16
Senior Analyst
Threat and Risk Analysis Division
4 years with HSSAI
BA, Political Science, University of California
MA, International Policy, Monterey Institute of International
Studies
HSSAI
to community resilience that require careful engagement strategies. Our analysts identified lessons learned
from their years of experience supporting FEMA’s Private Sector Preparedness Program and developing
standards for business continuity and related organizations. By applying these lessons, the analysts enhanced
the viability of the new DHS efforts.
Cybersecurity
As cybersecurity becomes an increasingly important part of the DHS mission, HSSAI has developed a cadre
of analysts with the ability to support important decisions about cybersecurity policy and strategy. Over the
past year, HSSAI has supported DHS cybersecurity policy through a mix of policy-specific analytic support
and wide-ranging strategic studies. Policy-specific support has included assisting the Secretary’s Homeland
Security Advisory Council CyberSkills Task Force by providing research and supporting the development of
final Task Force recommendations. Other policy-specific support includes developing the methodology for
the plan to implement DHS’s Blueprint for a Secure Cyber Future: The Cybersecurity Strategy for the Homeland
Security Enterprise. This included a baseline assessment and gap analysis of key cybersecurity capabilities
in DHS, as well as identifying milestones and measures for tracking progress toward filling capability gaps.
HSSAI has also provided analyses that have a broader, more strategic perspective. One such study examined
DHS’s primary authorities for supporting and governing cybersecurity efforts. Another developed a holistic,
theory-driven suite of performance measurement metrics for evaluating efforts to share cybersecurity
information related to critical infrastructure. Building on this work, we recently began researching cybersecurity
information sharing to investigate and recommend a standardized econometric methodology for testing the
hypothesis that information sharing reduces cyber incidents and their consequences.
“The studies at HSSAI have allowed me to focus on the experiences of operators in the field in order to
inform decision making, expose challenges, and highlight solutions.”
With a background in higher education policy and operational
experience as a combat veteran, John has blended his policy
and military experience to the benefit of DHS. John’s focus
has been on tasks in which he can work with operators.
For example, John led a study on the training requirements
for U.S. Coast Guard deployable specialized forces and
concluded that the burden of individual and collective training
requirements can affect their availability to deploy. John has
also worked closely with Transportation Security Administration
and commercial airport operators across the nation to
identify innovative measures to enhance airport security.
John Macuga
Senior Analyst
Operations Analysis Division
4 years with HSSAI
BA, History, University of Massachusetts
MPA, Syracuse University
17
HSSAI
The Under Secretary’s Award for Science and Technology was awarded to HSSAI’s Nicholas Minogue,
Bryant Streett, and the Apex Science and Technology for Operational Research Enhancement (STORE)
project team on July 19, 2012.
“As our first Apex program, STORE has changed the paradigm of how DHS S&T works with
DHS components. The team collaborated extensively with Secret Service to develop and implement
operational solutions. This team leveraged approximately $12 million of investments from DoD and
the Intelligence Community to provide critical operational capabilities to the Secret Service. This
also allowed the STORE team to maximize its own limited resources to evaluate and accelerate the
development of other high-priority technologies. The STORE team set the conditions for the Secret
Service’s continued success by designing best practices for acquisition and requirements generation.”
Tara O’Toole, M.D., M.P.H., Under Secretary for Science and Technology
18
Apex STORE
The intent of Apex programs is to solve problems of strategic operational importance identified by component
leadership. Apex STORE, the first Apex initiative, was a two-year effort comprised of a large multidisciplinary
team (including DHS S&T personnel, component personnel, HSSAI analysts, and contractors) that provided
the Secret Service with a durable methodology and framework from which to analyze technology needs
focused specifically on improving its remote protective operations.
HSSAI assigned two analysts who had the right mix of operational background, maturity, and experience.
Dr. Minogue with his law enforcement background and Mr. Streett with his operational Air Force experience
were the perfect fit.
HSSAI used funding from its discretionary Core Research Program to quick-start the scoping phase of the
project prior to receipt of sponsor funding. This was critical, as it allowed HSSAI to be part of the project from
the outset, which in turn fostered our role as the repository of the team’s institutional memory. HSSAI was
keenly aware of the impact of this effort: the methodology and framework we were developing would enable
the Secret Service to efficiently and consistently assess capabilities, identify areas for enhancement, and
develop acquisition strategies to enhance current abilities and meet projected requirements.
When asked what the key element was that contributed to the success of Apex STORE, both Mr. Streett and
Dr. Minogue emphasized collaboration and relationship building. The relationships that were fostered during
the task afforded HSSAI unparalleled hands-on experience, such as the opportunity to travel with the Secret
Service on several occasions to observe their protective operations. To build on these efforts, HSSAI intends
to embed a forward analyst for the first time ever at the Secret Service, which we hope will be the beginning
of a more robust relationship between the two organizations.
19
HSSAI
The Core Research Program
While most of HSSAI’s work is directly sponsor-funded, DHS also allocates funding each year that
allows us to undertake self-initiated studies of challenging or forward-looking issues that affect many
homeland security stakeholders. These studies are all conducted under the auspices of our Core
Research Program. At times, the Core Research Program can facilitate a rapid analytic response to
newly emerging issues and requirements. Often in these cases, this allows a task lead and sponsor to
jump-start a task and meet near-term requirements as a formal task is being set up.
20
As part of its Core Research Program, HSSAI established the Center for Response and Security Lessons
Learned. The Center includes a unique a field analysis and collection team that is prepared to rapidly respond
to emerging incidents to collect perishable data and lessons that might otherwise be lost. Through the analysis
of this information, the Center promotes best practices, identifies areas for improvement, and provides
actionable recommendations. This is accomplished through a host of different types of products, from quicklook after-action summaries to full papers and reports. The Center performed a post-incident study of the
FEMA response to the 2011 Alabama tornadoes and collected data during the response to Hurricane Sandy.
Specific studies conducted under the Core Research Program in the past year include the following:
•
Defining Criticality in a Networked World. Given the increasing
reliance on information and communications technology for the essential
functions that underlie national security, public health and safety, and
economic vitality, this study examines the effect of this reliance not only
on interdependencies between existing critical infrastructure, but on the
way that DHS identifies critical infrastructure overall.
•
The Public’s Role in Countering Domestic Terrorism. Suspicious
activity reporting programs exist at the federal, state, and local levels
of government. In an effort to improve those programs, this study
examined instances in which public reports led to the successful
disruption of domestic terrorism plots. The study attempted to identify
any patterns that could inform future public engagement efforts.
•
DHS Interdiction Posture. This study focused on developing a rigorous and repeatable process
for assessing and evaluating current strategies across all homeland security lines of effort. Using
interdiction efforts as a test case, the study looked across all domains between border points of entry
to analyze and characterize DHS’s current overall posture toward interdicting illicit flows. This type
of study could be of great service in helping efficiently allocate resources and concentrating efforts
where it counts across the entire homeland security enterprise.
•
Human Smuggling Illicit Pathways Attribution. This research focused
on the southern border of the United States. It identified attributes of
human smuggling networks, irregular migrants, and their financial
transactions, and it illustrated these findings in a regionally based
organizational architecture. This organizational architecture, designed
using a business model approach, focused on a variety of metrics
that support the ICE Illicit Pathways Strategy and provide predictability
measurements for human smuggling at the policy, intelligence, and
operational levels. The study’s findings suggest that non-traditional law
enforcement techniques are needed to address the non-hierarchical,
“free-agent” nature of human smuggling networks. The methodology
used for this study is readily transferrable to the study of human
trafficking, and potential efforts in this area are under discussion.
21
iStock
Interdepartmental Relationships
Although HSSAI’s work predominantly supports DHS, we sometimes provide other federal organizations
with homeland security-related studies, either directly or as a collaborative effort with DHS. Doing so
allows HSSAI to support a broader cross-section of the homeland security enterprise.
22
Department of Education
In 2012, HSSAI continued its multi-year engagement with the Department of Education, conducting research
on radicalization and violent extremism among school-aged youth. The study’s sponsor widely disseminated
the HSSAI report among key leadership across the federal government, including a briefing of the study’s
findings to the Countering Violent Extremism Working Group consisting of representatives from across DHS.
The White House’s Strategic Implementation Plan for Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism
in the United States, released in December 2011, specifically identifies the important role the Department of
Education and schools should play in preventing violent extremism—citing examples that echoed several of
the findings in the HSSAI final report.
Department of State
HSSAI developed a strong relationship with the Department of State through two separate projects in 2012.
HSSAI analysts helped the department review how it assesses the enforcement and effectiveness of other
nations’ customs and border security activities aimed at interdicting weapons of mass destruction, associated
materials, and advanced conventional weapons. The tool that HSSAI created will allow the department not
only to identify enforcement gaps in foreign countries, but also to effectively address those gaps with U.S.
assistance. A closely related task sought to assist the department by examining whether a risk-based resource
allocation model could usefully inform certain foreign assistance funding decisions.
U.S. Department of Agriculture
HSSAI is currently supporting the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) with a study focused on improving
the security and safety of school lunch programs. The study will ensure that the tools the USDA currently uses
to evaluate food safety in schools are consistent with the existing national directives, including Presidential
Policy Directive 8: National Preparedness.
Collaboration with the Departments of Defense and Transportation
HSSAI has commenced a study funded jointly by the Departments of Defense and Transportation to develop
a high-level five-year draft Strategic Plan for the Federal Interagency Committee on Emergency Medical
Services (FICEMS) designed to better align the full range of Federal Emergency Medical Services programs
with a common vision and goal and help to synchronize the efforts and strategies of FICEMS member agencies
under a common goal.
23
iStock
Looking Toward the Future
Although the DHS operational environment is inherently dynamic and unpredictable, it is almost certain
to be characterized by constrained budgets and a greater need for efficiency in the years to come. In
her 2012 address on the state of America’s homeland security, Secretary Napolitano indicated that the
key to overcoming these challenges is “a risk-based, information-driven approach to security…. This
approach not only makes us safer, but it also creates efficiencies within the system for travelers and
for businesses.”
24
HSSAI
By its very nature as an FFRDC, HSSAI is well equipped to support DHS in such an information-driven
approach. In addition, we are expanding existing capabilities that we believe can further help the department
do more with less.
Our decision analytics work is one such area. Decision analytics are a collection of techniques designed
to identify the most cost-effective solutions to specific problems. As described above, HSSAI has already
established a track record of applying these techniques to support highprofile DHS decisions. We are building upon those experiences by creating a
guidebook and training additional staff to apply these methodologies to other
problems.
Our mission integration work is another area where we believe we can help DHS
become more efficient and effective. By helping DHS continue to mature into a
more cohesive, unified organization, we can ensure that it maximizes the use of
its resources. As mentioned above, we are currently turning the methodology
from a successful CBP mission-integration study into a process that can be
easily repeated throughout DHS.
“Not all jobs provide you with an opportunity to tour Yankee Stadium to learn about anti-terrorism
security practices…In a word, awesome.”
Eric had years of schooling under his belt when he arrived at
HSSAI, but he never stopped learning. Thanks to the mentorship
of task leads, the experience of his DHS sponsors, and a
diverse set of work opportunities Eric has become proficient
in a variety of homeland security issues, from preparedness to
standards implementation to critical infrastructure protection.
Eric Ambinder
Analyst
Business Enterprise Analysis Division
2 years with HSSAI
BA, Sociology, University of Michigan
MS, Management, University of Florida
JD, University of Florida
25
HSSAI
US Coast Guard Visiting Fellow
Commander Charles Fosse
When Commander Fosse was selected for senior service school, he
was allowed to choose from a list of organizations where he could
serve as a visiting fellow. HSSAI was a new addition to the offering for
the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) Fellow Program. Commander Fosse
seized the opportunity to conduct analysis-based research that he
could combine with his operational experience and background in
training and needs analysis. Commander Fosse remains excited
by the opportunity to contribute to the impactful work of HSSAI and
recognizes the breadth of HSSAI’s analyses will allow him to continue
supporting USCG missions while learning more about the rest of the
homeland security enterprise.
Commander Fosse hit the ground running since his arrival at HSSAI.
Besides serving as a subject matter expert, he has contributed
to several tasks, including the development of risk assessment modeling for the Coast Guard. Several of
HSSAI’s upcoming efforts will also involve Commander Fosse, including support for the next Quadrennial
Homeland Security Review and a future analysis project for the Transportation Security Administration that will
use analytic tools and methods that could apply to his work with the USCG.
Commander Fosse is a graduate of the U.S.
Coast Guard Academy with a bachelor’s degree
in mathematics. He earned a master’s degree in
education and instructional technology from Indiana
University. After receiving his commission as a
Coast Guard ensign, Commander Fosse reported
for duty in USCG Cutter (USCGC) LAUREL, a 180foot seagoing buoy tender. His operational career
has spanned duty as weapons officer of USCGC
MELLON, as commanding officer of USCGC LONG
ISLAND and as executive officer of USCGC TAMPA,
conducting search and rescue, environmental
protection, humanitarian assistance, and law
enforcement missions. Commander Fosse’s shore
assignments include operations center controller
at Coast Guard First District Headquarters, and
performance and training manager of operational
forces at Coast Guard Headquarters. Commander
Fosse also served at the White House Military Office,
26
where he was responsible for the management of
training, exercise, and evaluation activities in support
of national security programs and contingency
operations supporting the President, Vice
President, and other senior government officials.
Commander Fosse’s most recent assignment was
as the commanding officer of USCGC SENECA,
a medium endurance cutter stationed in Boston,
Massachusetts.
Commander Fosse’s service awards include the
Defense Meritorious Service Medal, the Coast
Guard Meritorious Service Medal, three Coast
Guard Commendation Medals, three Coast Guard
Achievement Medals, and various unit awards.
He earned the Presidential Service Badge for a
successful tour of duty in support of the President of
the United States.
HSSAI
Our Facility
In the year ahead, HSSAI (and Analytic Services Inc. as a whole) will relocate our headquarters to
the Skyline Technology Center in Falls Church, Virginia. The Skyline complex provides a campus-like
setting that houses both government agencies and contractors. Our new state-of-the-art building was
built to suit the Defense Information Systems Agency and is equipped with such amenities as a large
sensitive compartmented information facility.
The move is an exciting opportunity for the corporation as the building’s footprint enables both
operating units to be collocated in a single, open-concept floor. This layout will foster a collaborative
work environment for our analysts as traditional workplace barriers will be removed. The building has
numerous conference and meeting rooms and a modern auditorium that seats approximately 120.
Our staff and our sponsors will reap the rewards of this move as our team will be better equipped to
collaborate on solutions to challenging homeland security problems.
27
HSSAI
Our Staff
At HSSAI, our people are the foundation of what we do. They hold the expertise, the knowledge,
the analytic skills, and the networks that make our organization successful. HSSAI, operated by our
parent corporation, Analytic Services Inc., has more than 120 analysts dedicated to homeland security
studies and analysis.
28
HSSAI
HSSAI has a strong culture of public service, with many analysts hailing from the military, prior government
service careers, first responders, and medical services. For many of us, our commitment to serving the nation
at HSSAI is an extension of our past experience.
Our workforce’s varied skills and expertise come together in synergistic teams that are capable of providing
highly informed analysis and holistic solutions to complex problems. A range of backgrounds among our
analysts, in the public, private, and academic sectors facilitates creative problem solving. Over 80 percent of
our analysts hold advanced degrees in a wide variety of academic disciplines, including operations research,
public policy, law, and computer science.
In addition, HSSAI has the ability to draw on our parent corporation’s large pool of analysts to supplement our
teams’ expertise and knowledge, as needed.
61%
MASTERS
JD
BACHELORS
15%
“The supportive atmosphere of HSSAI and our
multi-disciplinary approach bring richness and
diversity to every task. Even as the most junior
or least experienced member of a team, I have
always felt my opinion and unique perspective
was valued and encouraged.”
PhD
3%
21%
Like many people, before coming to HSSAI, Megan’s only
interaction with homeland security was when traveling through
an airport. Since joining HSSAI out of college, Megan has
interacted with stakeholders from across the all corners of the
DHS. As part of the Risk Assessment Process for Informed
Decision-Making task, Megan offered a fresh perspective on
calculating risk, rooted in her knowledge of economics and
quantitative science. Using those skills, she has become
an expert in modeling, and not merely from a technical
perspective. Her ability to holistically examine issues by
identifying all variables with an eye toward creating a relational
view of the problem space keeps her skills in high demand.
Megan McHugh
Analyst
Threat and Risk Analysis Division
4.5 years with HSSAI
BA, Economics, Villanova University
MS, Applied Economics (in progress), Johns Hopkins University
29
HSSAI
“My knowledge of emergency management
increased greatly during the 10 weeks
I spent at HSSAI. Working alongside
experts with years of experience, I was
given a multitude of opportunities where I
was able to transfer the knowledge learned
in the classroom into practical use. The
additional skills and understanding I
gained have allowed me to further excel in
school and will someday transfer over to
a career in emergency management. I’m
thankful for the wonderful opportunity I
had, and will use it as a launching pad for
a successful future.”
STEM Intern Allen Simmons
HSSAI has an important role to play in building
future leaders in homeland security. In 2012, HSSAI
continued its participation in the DHS-sponsored
undergraduate summer internship program for rising
juniors and seniors majoring in homeland security–
related science, technology, engineering, and
mathematics (HS-STEM) disciplines. The internship
provides the student an opportunity to engage
with federal research facilities such as HSSAI
and to work toward building a long-term career in
homeland security. This year, HSSAI welcomed Allen
Simmons from Arkansas Tech University, a student
in the growing academic discipline of emergency
management who also brought real world experience
as a volunteer firefighter and search and rescue
specialist. His work at HSSAI supported the Project
Responder task.
“Working at HSSAI has given me so much experience. Great people coupled with interesting and
diverse projects, have helped me discover new professional interests.”
Her experience during college working as an intern at the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the
Navy Crane Center inspired Laura to continue working in
the government sector. Given this desire, Laura sought out
a place where her work would “matter” and HSSAI fit the bill.
This was her first job out of college, yet she was afforded
opportunities to make an impact by regularly interacting with
stakeholders and task sponsors. She even facilitated working
groups of emergency management personnel at all levels—a
challenge that many far more “seasoned analysts” in other
organizations may not have been able to meet with such aplomb.
Laura Lynaugh
30
Senior Associate Analyst
Human Systems Division
2 years with HSSAI
BA, Physics and Economics, University of Virginia
Distinguished Visiting Fellows
The HSSAI Distinguished Visiting Fellows (DVF) Program enlists the support of renowned leaders in the field of
homeland security to serve as experts, contribute to reports, and represent HSSAI at events nationwide. A key
resource, fellows are strategic advisors, informing HSSAI’s work and providing guidance. The fellows enhance
HSSAI’s credibility by expanding our network of homeland security subject matter experts and supporting
the recruitment of a talented, multi-faceted workforce. Over the past year, the fellows have participated in
numerous HSSAI tasks. Analysts across HSSAI leveraged their diverse backgrounds on a range of projects
from cybersecurity metrics to a Federal Air Marshals operational workshop and from tasks focused on riskbased decision making to DHS’s interdiction posture. Participants in the program include:
Rear Admiral Thomas Atkin, U.S. Coast Guard (Ret.)
Former Assistant Commandant for Intelligence and Criminal Intelligence, U.S. Coast
Guard
Rear Adm. Atkin served for 30 years in the U.S. Coast Guard, distinguishing himself
throughout his career in the fields of law enforcement, tactical border security
operations, and intelligence. He served in multiple leadership positions as a flag
officer where he was responsible for directing homeland security and homeland
defense policy.
Larry Castro
Managing Director, Chertoff Group
Mr. Castro served as the National Security Agency (NSA)/Central Security Service
representative to DHS. He also led the Defensive Information Operations Group within
NSA’s Information Assurance Directorate. Mr. Castro now focuses on cybersecurity;
information sharing across federal, state, and local governments; and intelligence
support for crises and special events.
The Honorable Elaine Duke
Former Under Secretary for Management, DHS
Ms. Duke served as the Deputy Assistant Administrator for the Transportation
Security Administration, DHS Chief Procurement Officer, and Deputy Under Secretary
of Homeland Security for Management before serving as the Under Secretary of
Homeland Security for Management for two administrations. She has an extensive
and in-depth understanding of DHS and the rest of the nation’s homeland security
enterprise.
31
Colonel Terry Ebbert, U.S. Marine Corps (Ret.)
CEO, Ebbert & Associates; Former Director of Homeland Security, City of New Orleans
Col. Ebbert served as the incident commander in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina
and coordinated all local, state, and federal responses to New Orleans. He provides
consulting, training, and education in emergency preparedness, public safety, disaster
management, and security. During his distinguished career in the U.S. Marine Corps,
Col. Ebbert received the Navy Cross.
Stephen Flynn, PhD
Co-Director, George J. Kostas Research Institute for Homeland Security at Northeastern
University; Former President, Center for National Policy
Dr. Flynn spent a decade as a senior fellow for national security studies at the Council
on Foreign Relations. He served as the lead policy advisor on homeland security
for President Obama’s transition team. He also currently serves as a member of
the bipartisan National Security Preparedness Group, is a consulting professor at
the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, and is
a senior fellow at the Wharton School’s Risk Management and Decision Processes
Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
David McIntyre, PhD
Vice President of Academic Affairs, Homeland Security and Defense at National
Graduate School & University
Dr. McIntyre is the former director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security,
Texas A&M University. He served as a member of the National Security Education
Board and the National Board of Directors of the FBI’s InfraGard National Members
Alliance, an academic advisor to the University and Colleges Committee of the
International Association of Emergency Managers, and on the Steering Committee of
the Homeland Security/Defense Education Consortium Association.
William Modzeleski
Former Associate Assistant Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of Education Office of
Safe and Drug-Free Schools
For the past two decades, Mr. Modzeleski has held senior-level positions at the
Department of Education. During that time, he was instrumental in designing and
implementing programs, policies, training, and technical assistance for school safety.
He also developed strategies and programs for alcohol and drug abuse and school,
mental, and environmental health. Other long-standing interests include school
preparedness, violence prevention, and understanding the radicalization of youth.
Mr. Modzeleski has authored several studies on school safety, terrorism, and domestic radicalization.
32
Paul Rosenzweig
Founder, Red Branch Law & Consulting; Former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy,
DHS
In his role at DHS, Mr. Rosenzweig had several notable accomplishments, including
negotiating international agreements relating to information sharing for counterterrorism
purposes; negotiating and implementing aviation, cargo, and passenger pre-clearance
agreements; and developing and implementing a strategy for the expansion of the
Visa Waiver Program. Mr. Rosenzweig also serves as a professorial lecturer in law at
George Washington University, a senior editor of the Journal of National Security
Law & Policy, and a visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation.
Lieutenant General Keith J. Stalder, U.S. Marine Corps (Ret.)
Lt. Gen. Stalder has more than 37 years of distinguished service in joint and U.S.
Marine Corps operational assignments. He was the commanding general of U.S.
Marine Corps Forces Pacific, Camp H.M. Smith, Hawaii, and before that, commanding
general of II Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. While on
active duty he became one of the military’s most experienced operational planners
and commanders. As the senior Marine military representative to the U.S. Pacific
Command, he was instrumental in negotiating international accords on the basing
of U.S. forces in Japan and strengthening international alliances to preserve peace in
East Asia and the Pacific. Upon retirement, he established a technical and management consulting practice
and works with industry, government, and academic clients.
The Honorable Robert Stephan
President, Stephan Risk Solutions; Former Assistant Secretary for Infrastructure
Protection, DHS
While at DHS, Mr. Stephan led the national effort to identify and catalog critical
infrastructures and key resources, and to assess risk across all sectors. Additionally,
he led the development and implementation of the National Infrastructure Protection
Plan and supporting sector-specific annexes. Prior to his time with DHS, Mr. Stephan
was the senior director for information analysis and infrastructure protection at the
Homeland Security Council. In the aftermath of September 11, 2001, Mr. Stephan
led the national vulnerability assessment effort as a handpicked member of the Vice President’s National
Preparedness Task Force. He is also a retired colonel from the U.S. Air Force.
33
Provided by
Phil Anderson, Director
Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute
703.416.3219
Phil.Anderson@hsi.dhs.gov