FUTURE OF
ENERGY SUMMIT
Shanghai
4 November 2015
Michael Liebreich
Chairman of the Advisory
Board
Twitter: @mliebreich
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY
2004–14 ($BN)
+3.5x in 10
years
400
600
350
7%
-7%
35%
-8%
12%
500
300
12%
400
250
-9%
Expected
27%
Large hydro
200
300
Other
50%
Solar
150
200
30%
Wind
100
100
50
0
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
20122012
20132013
20142015
Q1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2014
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro
investment.
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
@MLiebreich
1
NEW INSTALLATIONS IN CLEAN ENERGY
2004–14 (GW)
+7x in 10
73%
years
160
140
57%
120
44%
100
36%
80
22%
16%
60
-3%
40
12%
-8%
20
-18%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Include large hydro
Michael Liebreich
2012
2013
2014
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
2
IEA FORECASTS, CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY
(GW)
WIND
SOLAR
Source: IEA; Ecofys
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
3
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT BY REGION
2004 – 2014 ($BN)
Europe
United States
$119
$129
$98
$87 $89
$72
$28
04
$38
$66 $66
$52
$65
$48
$44
$35
$35 $41
$52 $48 $52
$10 $17
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
04
05
06
China
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Asia ex-China
$89
$3
$17
$9 $11
04
05
06
07
$26
08
$40 $43
09
10
$53
$67 $68
$24 $26 $25
$15 $17 $20
11
12
13
14
04
05
06
07
08
09
$36
10
$46 $46
11
12
$59 $65
13
14
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
4
ESTIMATED GLOBAL WIND TURBINE SUPPLY
2011-14 (%, GW)
63.6
62.8
61.3
74.1
21%
20%
19%
17%
9%
10%
Asia = 55% 15%
14%
3%
9%
3%
9%
13%
3%
12%
9%
8%
Asia = 62%
13%
Rest of world
3%
Germany
13%
US
Other Asia
India
43.1%
44.3%
44.1%
45.6%
2011
2012
2013
2014
China
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Nameplate capacity represents the companies' announced production capacity. Discounted capacity represents our best
estimation of actual available capacity. For details see our Wind Turbine Manufacturing Supply Model
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
5
PV MODULE PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
2011-2014 (%,GW)
Asia = 79%
29.7
30.1
38.7
45.0
9%
7%
11%
11%
4%
7%
3%
7%
3%
2%
6%
3%
10%
5%
9%
Asia = 91%
18%
Germany
USA
Other Asia
64.3%
2011
71.0%
69.5%
78.0%
Japan
China
2012
2013
2014
Source: Company reports, statements and
Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
6
NEW CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT IN OECD VS
NON-OECD 2004-Q3 2015 ($BN)
60
50
Q3 2015
40
$37.6bn
30
$32.4bn
20
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
10
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Non OECD
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
OECD
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
7
RENEWABLE ENERGY (INCL. LARGE HYDRO) AND
FOSSIL FUEL INVESTMENT VOLUMES 2008-14 $BN
350
2014
300
Renewable energy
$295bn
Fossil fuel
$289bn
250
200
150
100
50
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
8
LAUDATO SI
There is an urgent
need to develop
sources of renewable
energy
Pope Francis
Picture: Wikimedia
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
9
LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY
2014 ($/MWH)
Marine - wave
Marine - tidal
STEG - LFR
STEG - parabolic trough
STEG - tower & heliostat
Wind - offshore
PV - thin film
PV - c-Si
PV - c-Si tracking
Biomass - anaerobic digestion
Biomass - gasification
Biomass - incineration
Municipal solid waste
Geothermal - binary plant
Wind - onshore
Small hydro
Large hydro
Landfill gas
Geothermal - flash plant
Natural gas CCGT
Coal fired
CHP
Nuclear
1037
844
PV projects as
low as
$58/MWh
Onshore wind
as low as
$40/MWh
0
100
200
300
Q2 2013 central
Fossil technologies:
US
400
H1 2014 central
China
Europe
Australia
Note: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for
China and the US.
Michael Liebreich
500
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
@MLiebreich
10
OIL AND GAS PRICES: HENRY HUB, NBP, BAFA, AND
NE LNG, 2004–15 (US$/MMBTU)
20
18
20
16
18
14
16
12
14
10
12
8
10
6
8
4
6
2
North East Asia
LNG
BAFA (Germany
NBP (UK)
border price for
Russian gas)
Henry Hub (US)
NBP (UK)
BAFA (Germany
border price for
Russian gas)
North East
Asia(US)
LNG
Henry
Hub
4
0
2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0
Note: Japan-Korea Marker is based on broker assessments of the spot price of un-contracted LNG cargoes delivered into
the Northeast Asia market.
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
ICAP, Platts
@MLiebreich
11
US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD
2000–2015 (BCFD)
45
40
35
Marcellus
Haynesville
30
Eagle Ford
25
Fayetteville
Barnett
20
Woodford
Bakken
15
Antrim
Utica
10
Other Shale
5
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
12
US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, 2007 - 2015
Natural Gas Rotary Rigs in Operation
Gas output per operating rig
(Number)
(MMcf/day/rig)
1800
400
Rig count
down 6-fold
2007-2015
1600
1400
Output per
rig
Up 8-fold
2007-2015
350
300
1200
250
1000
200
800
150
600
100
400
50
200
0
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Range Resources, 28 July 2015 , Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
13
MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS
Canada
Norway
Poland
UK
China
Algeria
Libya
USA
Mexico
Brazil
Australia
200 trillion
cubic feet
South Africa
Argentina
Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown
Michael Liebreich
Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, April
2011
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
14
LNG EXPORT CAPACITY BY COUNTRY/REGION
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Note: For the underlying data to this chart, go to BI LNGGG<GO>
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
Other
North America
Russia
East Africa
West Africa
Australia
Other
North America
Russia
West Africa
North Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Australia
Qatar
Demand
Operational, under
construction or
post-FID
800
Pre-FID
(MMTPA)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
@MLiebreich
15
AN AGE OF ENERGY
PLENTY…
… AGE OF
COMPETITION
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
16
ARA AND NEWCASTLE COAL PRICE 2007–2015
(2014 US$/TONNE)
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
ARA
150
Newcastle
100
100
50
50
0
2007
0
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
Note: Prices have been adjusted for inflation according to YoY CPI Index from UK Office of National Statistics
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
2013
2014
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ONS
@MLiebreich
17
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013 – 2015 YTD
200
150
S&P 500 Oil & Gas
NEX
100
Stowe Global Coal
50
0
Jan 13
Apr 13
Jul 13
Oct 13
Jan 14
Apr 14
Jul 14
Oct 14
Jan 15
Apr 15
Note: Values as of 26 October 2015; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
Jul 15
Oct 15
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
@MLiebreich
18
COAL BANKRUPTCIES
Investment Pte
Image: various company sources
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
19
US NET COAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS
2013-40 (GW)
Forecast
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
2013
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance NEO
2015
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
20
GERMANY NET COAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS
2013-40 (GW)
Forecast
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2013
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance NEO
2015
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
21
CHINA NET COAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS
2013-40 (GW)
Forecast
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2013
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
22
INDIA NET COAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS
2013-40 (GW)
Forecast
25
20
15
10
5
0
2013
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance NEO
2015
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
23
POWER SECTOR CO2 EMISSION TRAJECTORY 2012-40
(MtCO2)
电力行业碳排放轨迹，2012-40 （百万吨二氧化碳）
EU, US, CHINA AND INDIA
(INDEX, 2012 = 100)
GLOBAL EMISSIONS
18,000
400
16,000
350
14,000
300
India
12,000
250
10,000
200
8,000
150
6,000
China
100
4,000
2,000
50
0
0
2012
2020
2030
2040
US
Europe
2012
2020
2030
2040
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
24
INDIA LCOE
($/MWH NOMINAL)
150
Onshore wind
100
Utility-scale PV
Natural gas
50
Coal
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Note: Capacity factors – onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15%
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
2040
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
@MLiebreich
25
TOTAL INVESTMENTS PER TECHNOLOGY, 2015-40
(US$ REAL)
RENEWABLES TAKE
65% OF THE $12.2
TRILLION POWER
INVESTMENT TO 2040
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
26
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER
GENERATION- INCLUDING HYDRO, 2014 (%)
France
16.3%
UK
19.5%
Germany
26.7%
US
13.3%
Japan
13.6%
Mexico
16.7%
China
20.5%
No data
<5%
5-10%
11-20%
21-40%
>50%
Brazil
71.7%
ME + Africa
12%
India
24.8%
Australia
16.2%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
27
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER
GENERATION- INTERMITTENT ENERGY (WIND &
SOLAR), 2014 (%)
France
3%
UK
9%
Germany
16%
US
4%
Japan
5%
Mexico
3%
China
5%
0
1-5%
6-10%
11-25%
26-50%
50+%
Brazil
3%
ME + Africa
0%
Note: This only shows the combination of wind and solar energy generation. All numbers come from
BNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2015
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
India
3%
Australia
8%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
@MLiebreich
28
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER
GENERATION- INTERMITTENT ENERGY (WIND &
SOLAR) , 2040 (%)
France
30%
UK
63%
Germany
77%
US
24%
Japan
20%
Mexico
32%
China
37%
0
1-5%
6-10%
11-25%
26-50%
50+%
Brazil
34%
ME + Africa
26%
Note: This only shows the combination of wind and solar energy generation. All numbers come from
BNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2015
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
India
32%
Australia
52%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
@MLiebreich
29
LAUDATO SI – INTEGRATION
There is still a need to
develop adequate storage
technologies.
Pope Francis
Picture: Wikimedia
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
30
MANAGING INTERMITTENCY
Efficiency
Forecasting
Demand
management
Interconnection
Storage
Backup
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
31
MANAGING INTERMITTENCY
Save money, reduce the
scale of the problem
Efficiency
Forecasting
Demand
management
Markets and
Interconnection
Storage
Backup
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
32
MANAGING INTERMITTENCY
Efficiency
Forecasting
Demand
management
“Bits are always
cheaper than kit”
Markets and
Interconnection
Storage
Backup
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
33
MANAGING INTERMITTENCY
Efficiency
Forecasting
Demand
management
Markets and
Interconnection
Eliminate
curtailment
Storage
Backup
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
34
INTERMITTENCY MANAGEMENT MERIT ORDER
Efficiency
Forecasting
Demand
management
Markets and
interconnection
“Only needed at 70%
renewable
penetration”
(CEO, 50 Hertz Germany)
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
Storage
Backup
@MLiebreich
35
MANAGING INTERMITTENCY
Efficiency
Forecasting
Demand
management
Markets and
interconnection
Storage
Last resort
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
Backup
@MLiebreich
36
THE ROAD TO PARIS
Image: UNFCCC
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
37
CUMULATIVE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS
(GTCO2)
65
Pre-COP21
pledges
60
55
INDC
trajectory
50
45
Historical
2 C
40
35
30
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Notes: includes INDCs submitted to 1st October 2015
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Climate Action Tracker
@MLiebreich
38
FORECAST PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND
2015-30 (MTOE)
19,000
Shell Oceans
18,000
17,000
Shell
Mountains
16,000
BP
15,000
IEA NPS
14,000
Exxon
13,000
12,000
2015
2020
2025
2030
INDC
scenario
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Shell, BP, IEA,
Exxon
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
39
RENEWABLES GENERATION CUMULATIVE CAPACITY
2020 – 2040
8,000GW
IEA 450
7,000GW
IEA Current Policies
6,000GW
5,000GW
IEA New Policies
4,000GW
World Energy
Council Symphony
3,000GW
+50%
2,000GW
World Energy
Council Jazz
1,000GW
BNEF
0GW
2020
2030
2040
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World Energy Council, IEA
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
40
COAL DEMAND UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
2015-30 (MTOE)
4,500
+14%
+14%
4,000
3,500
0%
IEA coal demand
excl INDCs
IEA coal demand
inc INDCs
3,000
-20%
-20%
IEA coal demand
inc INDCs and
BNEF NEO
estimates
2,500
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
41
ELECTRIC VEHICLES – THE PROMISE
Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until
they're within reach of the average family.
The Washington
Post , 1915
Images: BMW, Detroit Electric, 2015, courtesy of EVASD
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
42
ELECTRIC VEHICLE – THE UPTAKE SO FAR
CARS AND TRUCKS IN USE
WORLDWIDE, 2013
1.2 billion
ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN
USE WORLDWIDE, 2014
0.75 million (to scale)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
43
EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACKS & CRYSTYALLINE
SI PV MODULES: HISTORICAL COST REDUCTIONS
Cumulative lithium-ion EV battery pack production (MWh)
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
100
10
10
m=26.3%
1
EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK
PRICES HAVE FALLEN
60% SINCE 2010
m=15.5%
0
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW)
100,000
Note: Values from 2010-2014 are based on BNEF’s annual battery price index, *2015 based on H1 data. For more see here:
https://www.bnef.com/Insight/10299. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size.
Michael Liebreich
1
Lithium-ion battery pack price (USD/Wh)
Crystalline Si PV Module price (USD/W)
100
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
0
1,000,000
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
@MLiebreich
44
SHANGHAI, CHINA
Photo: Michael Liebreich
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
45
BEIJING, CHINA
Photo: Reuters/NASA
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
46
HONG KONG
Photo: Greenpacks
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
47
AIR QUALITY - DELHI
Picture: Wikimedia Commons
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
48
DELHI, INDIA
Photo: JE Poirrier, Creative Commons
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
49
SINGAPORE
Photo: Bloomberg
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
50
CAIRO, EGYPT
Photo: Matt Champlin / Flickr
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
51
MEXICO CITY, MEXICO
Photo: Shinil GCP
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
52
SAO PAULO, BRAZIL
Photo: Thomas Hobbs
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
53
MOSCOW, RUSSIA
Photo: EarthInTransition
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
54
LOS ANGELES, USA
Photo: UCLA
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
55
LONDON, UK
Photo: HHRCA
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
56
PARIS, FRANCE
Photo: D€NNI$/Creative Commons
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
57
URBAN TRANSPORT REVOLUTION
Images: Transport for London, Zipcar, Uber, Proterra
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
58
IEA OIL SUPPLY FORECAST
1990-2040 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY
130
120
110
100
130
Pre-2000
2000-2008
120
WEO
WEO1994
1994
1994
WEO
WEO
WEO1996
1996
1996
WEO
110
WEO
WEO1996
1996
1996
WEO
WEO
WEO1998
1998
1998
WEO
2010-2013
Current
WEO
WEO2002
2002
2002
WEO
WEO
WEO2003
2003
2003
WEO
100
WEO
WEO2006
2006
2006
WEO
90
80
70
60
Transport
transformation
scenario?
90
80
70
WEO
WEO2007
2007
2007
WEO
WEO
WEO2009
2009
2009
WEO
WEO
WEO2010
2010
2010
WEO
WEO
WEO2011
2011
2011
WEO
WEO2012
WEO2012
WEO2012
WEO
WEO2014
2014
2014
WEO
Actual
Actual
Actual
60
1990
1995
1990
2000 2000
2005 2005
20102010
201520152020
2030
2035
1995
2020 2025
2025 2030
2030 2035
2035
Note: Includes NGL and processing gain, but excludes biofuels
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
2040
2040
2040
Source: IEA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
@MLiebreich
59
G7 JUNE 2015 – SCHLOSS ELMAU
Emissions must be cut 40-70% by mid-century
and phased out entirely by 2100
Picture: Wikimedia
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
60
APEC BLUE
Asia Blue
Picture: Michael Liebreich
Michael Liebreich
Shanghai Summit, 4 November 2015
@MLiebreich
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Michael Liebreich
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