2013 Political Risk Map ARCTIC OCEAN G R E E N L A N D Baffin Bay Laptev Sea Kara Sea Beaufort Sea East Siberian Sea Barents Sea Nor wegian Sea Davis Strait Alaska (US) ICELAND Godthåb SWEDEN Reykjavik Anchorage NORWAY North Sea Hudson Bay RUSSIA FINLAND Helsinki Oslo Stockholm St Petersburg Tallinn ESTONIA Kaliningrad (Russia) UNITED KINGDOM IRELAND Dublin C A N A D A BELGIUM ITALY New York Washington, D.C. VATICAN SPAIN M Algiers Melilla (Sp) Dallas Madeira (Port) New Orleans The Canaries (Sp) LEBANON CYPRUS PALESTINE n ISRAEL Tel Aviv Cairo ALGERIA Amman BAHRAIN Santo Domingo Guadeloupe (Fr) ST. KITTS & NEVIS Banjul GAMBIA San José COSTA RICA Panama TRINIDAD & TOBAGO VENEZUELA PANAMA Georgetown Paramaribo COLOMBIA Accra Abidjan Galapagos Islands (Ecuador) GHANA Quito Yaoundé TOGO SOUTH SUDAN ECUADOR PERU Bay of Bengal Phnom Penh MICRONESIA PALAU MALAYSIA NAURU Kuala Lumpur SOUTH SUDAN SINGAPORE KENYA Nairobi SEYCHELLES Dar-es-Salaam BURUNDI Jakarta SOLOMON ISLANDS Dili MALAWI Luanda ZAMBIA Brasilia Port Moresby TIMOR LESTE COMOROS BOLIVIA PAPUA NEW GUINEA INDONESIA RWANDA Kinshasa Timor Sea Lilongwe Honiara TUVALU Darwin FIJI Lusaka La Paz VANUATU St. Helena (UK) MOZAMBIQUE Harare ZIMBABWE 2013 New Icons Antananarivo MAURITIUS MADAGASCAR Rio de Janeiro PARAGUAY Risks to Doing Business: The regulatory obstacles to setting up and operating business in the country, such as excessive procedures, the time and cost of registering a new business, dealing with building permits, trading across borders and getting bank credit with sound business plans. This risk is found in 96 countries, including Argentina, Bolivia, Dominica, Nigeria and Russia. São Paulo Asunción BOTSWANA Windhoek ATLANTIC OCEAN NAMIBIA Reunion Islands (Fr) Pretoria New Caledonia (Fr) KEY Gaborone Maputo Johannesburg SO U T H AFRICA Country risk level Low risk Medium-low risk Buenos Aires ARGENTINA Montevideo AUSTRALIA Symbols illustrating significant risks Brisbane SWAZILAND LESOTHO URUGUAY Santiago CHILE Cape Town EXCHANGE TRANSFER: SOVEREIGN NON-PAYMENT: Perth Sydney POLITICAL INTERFERENCE: Risks to Fiscal Stimulus: The risk of the government not being able to stimulate the economy due to lack of fiscal credibility, declining reserves, high debt burden or government inefficiency. This risk is found in 94 countries and territories, including Albania, Morocco, Liberia, Tanzania and Uganda. Medium risk These icons are not used in determining the overall rating of the country, however it gives insight into key factors of interest for visitors and investors. High risk Adelaide SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION: Medium-high risk Very high risk Non Rated Falkland Islands (UK) Scotia Sea Aon's political risk experts use a combination of market experience, innovative analysis tools and tailored risk transfer programmes to help you minimise your exposure to political risks. Aon designs risk transfer and management programmes to respond to adverse political actions, providing balance sheet protection and business facilitation. Political and security risk assessments are also available, allowing you to make © Copyright Aon Group, Inc. 2013. All rights reserved. Published by Aon Global Corporate Marketing and Communications.. PHILIPPINES KIRIBATI INDIAN OCEAN Bujumbura Brazzaville TONGA For further information, please email prienquiries@aon.co.uk or visit www.aon.com/political-risks VIETNAM ANGOLA PACIFIC OCEAN informed decisions regarding your operations and investments. CAMBODIA Manila South China Sea Salvador SAMOA Banking Sector Vulnerability: The risk of a country’s domestic banking sector going into crisis or not being able to support economic growth with adequate credit. This risk comprises measures of the capitalization and strength of the banking sector, and macro-financial linkages such as total indebtedness, trade performance and labor market rigidity. This risk is found in 106 countries and territories, including China, India, El Salvador and Thailand. Bangkok SRI LANKA Mogadishu TANZANIA Lima Tahiti Ad GUAM LAOS THAILAND MALDIVES Colombo DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC Kampala OF CONGO GABON Cabinda (Angola) Ascension Island (UK) f f o Gul HONG KONG MACAU Vientiane Rangoon YEMEN Bangui Libreville CONGO BRAZIL Mumbai Hanoi BRUNEI Kigali Fortaleza Arabian Sea PACIFIC OCEAN TAIWAN BURMA (MYANMAR) ETHIOPIA UGANDA SAO TOME & PRINCIPE Dhaka Kolkata Addis Ababa EQ GUINEA COTE D'IVOIRE INDIA Muscat SOMALIA CENTRAL LIBERIA Taipei BANGLADESH Karachi DJIBOUTI CAMEROON AFRICAN REPUBLIC Lomé BHUTAN OMAN Sana NIGERIA Monrovia SIERRA LEONE UAE N'Djamena GUINEA Freetown Abu Dhabi Mecca SUDAN BENIN Conakry FRENCH GUIANA (FR) SURINAME Cayenne Bogotá Bissau GUINEA BISSAU GUYANA BURKINA FASO Bamako Niamey East China Sea Thimphu Khartoum CHAD Dakar GRENADA Caracas ERITREA NIGER CAPE VERDE DOMINICA Caribbean ANGUILLA ST. LUCIA Netherlands BARBADOS Sea Antilles (NL) ST. VINCENT Managua NICARAGUA MALI Nouakchott SENEGAL ANTIGUA & BARBUDA HONDURAS Tegucigalpa San Salvador PUERTO RICO (US) VIRGIN ISLANDS (US) Katmandu Delhi QATAR SAUDI ARABIA a Port-auPrince MAURITANIA Shanghai NEPAL lf Kingston PAKISTAN Gu EGYPT JAPAN Tokyo Osaka Islamabad Wuhan KUWAIT Jeddah DOMINICAN REP CHINA Kabul IRA Q LIBYA El Aaiun Western Sahara AFGHANISTAN Se Guatemala EL SALVADOR IRAN Baghdad JORDAN HAITI BELIZE Mexico City FRENCH POLYNESIA Tehran Beirut Damascus CUBA Cayman Islands (UK) Seoul SOUTH KOREA MALTA ite Se rran a ea Pyongyang TAJIKISTAN e Havana Beijing SYRIA Riyadh Belmopan NIUE (NZ) Ashkhabad JAMAICA Guadalajara GUATEMALA BAHAMAS KYRGYZSTAN NORTH KOREA Dushanbe TURKEY Athens Tashkent Vladivostock Alma Ata TURKMENISTAN Baku Ankara Red Hawaiian Islands (USA) ATLANTIC OCEAN UZBEKISTAN AZERBAIJAN ALBANIA ed Bishkek Th Gulf of Mexico MEXICO Miami GEORGIA F.Y.R. MACEDONIA Tripoli MOROCCO Bermuda (UK) Houston TUNISIA Rabat Black Sea GREECE SERBIA Tunis Bucharest ARMENIA MONTENEGRO Gibraltar (UK) Ceuta (Sp) MONGOLIA Rome BOSNIA Ulan Bator MOLDOVA BULGARIA SAN MARINO Madrid Lisbon Sarajevo CROATIA ANDORRA PORTUGAL Belgrade Sea Boston ROMANIA ian MONACO Azores (Port) Los Angeles K A Z A K H S TA N Casp San Francisco UKRAINE Kiev Prague CZECH REP SLOVAKIA AUSTRIA LIECHTENSTEIN Bern FRANCE HUNGARY SWITZERLAND SLOVENIA Toronto U N I T E D S TAT E S O F A M E R I C A Warsaw Paris Québec Montréal Ottawa Chicago Minsk BELARUS GERMANY LUXEMBOURG Seattle Vilnius Sea of Okhotsk Novosibirsk en Vancouver Moscow LITHUANIA POLAND Berlin NETHERLANDS London LATVIA Riga DENMARK Copenhagen Bering Sea Line of Control Canberra Tasman Sea Auckland Melbourne NEW ZEALAND LEGAL & REGULATORY RISK: Wellington POLITICAL VIOLENCE: Christchurch RISK OF DOING BUSINESS: BANKING SECTOR VULNERABILITY: INABILITY OF GOVERNMENT TO PROVIDE STIMULUS: SOUTHERN OCEAN About Roubini Global Economics Roubini Global Economics is a leading macroeconomic research and country risk firm best known for its accuracy in predicting vulnerabilities and crisis. Roubini Country Risk combines expert research and risk assessment tools, enabling you to better understand and quantitatively measure countries’ macroeconomic, political, business and social risks.