Chapter 7 Attributes Control Charts 許湘伶 Statistical Quality Control (D. C. Montgomery) Overview I I Classify each item inspected: conforming or nonconforming I attribute variable I three attributes control charts: 1. p chart; control chart for fraction nonconforming (np chart) 2. c chart; control chart for nonconformities 3. u chart; control chart for nonconformities per unit Introduction I I generally not as informative as variables charts I useful in service industries and nonmanufacturing or transactional business process I not easily measured on a numerical scale C.C. for Fraction Nonconforming I I fraction nonconforming: the ratio of #{nonconforming items} in a population to the total number of items in that population I The statistical principles underlying the control chart for fraction nonconforming: the binomial distribution I I p: the probability that any unit will not conform to specifications the successive units produced are independent ⇒ each unit Xi ∼ Ber(p) C.C. for Fraction Nonconforming II I a random sample of n units of product is selected I D= Pn i=1 Xi : #{non conforming of units} ⇒ D ∼ B(n, p) ! P{D = x} = n x p (1 − p)n−x , x E(D) = np; Var(D) = np(1 − p) x = 0, 1, . . . , n The sample fraction nonconforming= the ratio of the number of nonconforming units in the sample D to the sample size n D p(1 − p) ⇒ p̂ = ⇒ E(p̂) = µp̂ = p; Var(p̂) = σp̂2 = n n C.C. for Fraction Nonconforming III Review: the general model for the Shewhart control chart I w: statistic that measures a quality characteristic I µw , σw2 : the mean and variance of w I L: the distance of the control limits from the center line (Customary choosing L = 3) UCL = µw + Lσw Center line = µw UCL = µw − Lσw C.C. for Fraction Nonconforming IV I p: the true fraction nonconforming in the production process (a specified standard value) Fraction Nonconforming C.C: Standard Given s p(1 − p) n s p(1 − p) n UCL = µp + Lσp = p + 3 Center line = µp = p UCL = µp − Lσp = p − 3 I LCL < 0 ⇒ customarily set LCL = 0 ⇒ assume the control chart only has an upper control limits C.C. for Fraction Nonconforming V I p is not know ⇒ estimated from observed data I m preliminary samples, each of size n (m : 20 ∼ 25) I Di : nonconforming units in sample i I the fraction nonconforming in the ith sample: pi = I Di , n i = 1, . . . , m the average of these individual sample fractions nonconforming: Pm p̄ = (estimates p) i=1 Di mn Pm = i=1 p̂i m C.C. for Fraction Nonconforming VI Fraction Nonconforming C.C: No Standard Given s UCL = p̄ + 3 p̄(1 − p̄) n Center line = p̄ s UCL = p̄ − 3 p̄(1 − p̄) n I the trial control limits based on m initial samples I p̂i : to test whether the process was in control when the preliminary data were collected I Phase I: Any points that exceed the trial control limits should be investigated. C.C. for Fraction Nonconforming VII I If assignable causes for these points are discovered, they should be discarded and new trial control limits determined. I If p is given ⇒ the calculation of trial control limits is unnecessary I ∵ p would rarely be known, we would be given a standard value of p (represents a target value for the process) I If future samples indicated an out-of-control condition, we must determine whether the process is out of control at the target p but in control at some other value of p. Example 7.1: cardboard cans I Frozen orange juice I packed in 6 oz cardboard cans I determine whether it could possibly leak either on the side seam or around the bottom joint I Set up a control chart to improve the fraction of nonconforming cans produced by this machine Example 7.1: cardboard cans II I m = 30 samples of n = 50 cans I selected at 1/2 hour intervals over a three-shift(三班制) period Example 7.1: cardboard cans III Example 7.1: cardboard cans IV Example 7.1: cardboard cans V I Sample 15 & 23: investigated whether an assignable cause?? Example 7.1: cardboard cans VI Example 7.1: cardboard cans VII I Excluding assignable causes (Samples 15 & 23) I Analysis of the data does not produce any reasonable assignable cause for sample 21 ⇒ decide to retain the point Example 7.1: cardboard cans VIII I If the new operator working during the entire 2 hors period (samples 21-24) ⇒ we should discard all four sample (21-24) I p̄ is much too high⇒ Engineering staff: several adjustments can be made on the machine Example 7.1: cardboard cans IX I no assignable cause of this out-of-control signal can be determined I Test: the process fraction nonconforming in this current three-shift period differs from the previous one H0 : p1 = p2 Example 7.1: cardboard cans X The hypotheses: H0 : p1 = p2 H1 : p1 > p2 P54 p̂1 = p̄ = 0.2150; p̂2 = i=31 Di (50)(24) = 0.1108 The (approximate) test statistic (p.145) : p̂1 − p̂2 Z0 = q = 7.10 > Z0.05 = 1.645 p̂(1 − p̂)( n11 + n12 ) p̂ = n1 p̂1 + n2 p̂2 = 0.1669 n1 + n2 ⇒ reject H0 i.e., there has been a significant decrease in the process fallout Example 7.1: cardboard cans XI The new control chart: UCL = 0.2440 Center line = p̄ = 0.1108 LCL = max{−0.0224, 0} = 0 Example 7.1: cardboard cans XII Fraction Nonconforming Control Chart I Three parameters in the fraction nonconforming control chart I the sample size (n) I the frequency of sampling I the width of the control limits I Common to base a control chart for fraction nonconforming on 100% inspection of all process output over some convenient period of time I I I a shift (一個輪班) a day interrelated between sample size and sampling frequency Fraction Nonconforming Control Chart II I sampling frequency 1. appropriate sampling frequency for the production rate (⇒ fixes n) 2. rational subgrouping I Ex: three shifts-suspect shifts differ in their general quality level I each shift as a subgroup; Fraction Nonconforming Control Chart III Sample size: I I p is very small ⇒ choose n sufficiently large ⇒ a high probability of finding at least one nonconforming unit in the sample Otherwise, find the control limits: the presence of only one nonconforming unit in the sample would indicate an out-of-control condition Ex: (p, n) = (0.01, 8) ⇒ UCL = p + 3 one nonconforming unit in the sample ⇒ p̂ = 81 = 0.1250 ⇒ out of control q p(1−p) n = 0.1155 Fraction Nonconforming Control Chart IV 作法(1): I choose n s.t. P(finding at least on nonconforming unit per sample) ≥ γ I D: #{nonconforming items in the sample} I Ex: p = 0.01 ⇒ P(D ≥ 1) ≥ 0.95 1. The binomial distribution: ⇔P(D = 0) = n! (0.01)0 (1 − 0.01)n−0 = 0.05 0!(n − 0)! ⇒n = 298 2. Using the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution λ = np ≥ 3 ⇒ n = 3/p = 300 Fraction Nonconforming Control Chart V 作法(2): I I Duncan (1986): choose n large enough s.t. approximately a 50% chance of detecting a process shift of some specified amount p0 = 0.01 ⇒ a shift to p1 = 0.05 P(detect the shigt) ≥ 0.05 r ⇔P |p̂ − p0 | > L ⇔P p0 − p1 − L p q ! p0 (1 − p0 ) p1 n p0 (1−p0 ) n p1 (1 − p1 )/n r ⇔p1 ≈ p0 + L ≥ 0.5 p0 − p1 + L p̂ − p1 < q < q p1 (1−p1 ) n p0 (1 − p0 ) (Regard n p0 −p1 −L √ q p0 (1−p0 ) n p1 (1−p1 ) n √ p0 (1−p0 )/n p1 (1−p1 )/n ≈ 0) = 0.5 Fraction Nonconforming Control Chart VI s δ = p1 − p0 ⇔ δ = L ⇒n= 2 L δ p0 (1 − p0 ) n p0 (1 − p0 ) ⇒(p0 , δ, L) = (0.01, 0.04, 3) ⇒ n = 56 作法(3): I In control and p is small ⇒ choose n s.t. LCL > 0 s LCL = p − L p(1 − p) (1 − p) 2 >0⇔n> L n p (p, L) = (0.05, L) ⇒ n > 171 Fraction Nonconforming Control Chart VII I Three-sigma control limits are usually employed on the p chart I the fraction nonconforming control chart is not a universal(通用的) model for all data on fraction nonconforming I I based on binomial distribution: (i) p = constant (ii) successive(連續的) unit of production are independent nonconforming units: clustered or dependent ⇒ the fraction nonconforming control chart is often of little use Fraction Nonconforming Control Chart VIII Care: I interpreting points that plot below the LCL I not represent a real improvement in process quality (ex: caused by errors; improperly calibrated test and inspection equipment) The np Control Chart I (不良品個數) number nonconforming (np) control chart q UCL = np + 3 np(1 − p) Center Line = np q LCL = np − 3 np(1 − p) I p: unavailable ⇒ p̂ = p̄ I np chart: easier to interpret than p chart The np Control Chart II Example 7.2: an np control chart I the orange juice concentrate can process in Table 7.1 I p̄ = 0.2313; n = 50 UCL = 20.510 Center Line = 11.565 LCL = 2.620 I #{nonconforming units}: integer ⇒ (LCL,UCL)=(2,21) I if a sample value of np plotted at or beyond the control limits The np Control Chart III Variable Sample Size I I the sample is a 100% inspection of process output over some period of units I different numbers of units in each period Three approaches to constructing and operating a control chart with a variable n 1. Variable-width control limits 2. Control limits based on an average sample size 3. The standardized control chart Variable Sample Size II Variable-width control limits: P25 Di i=1 ni p̄ = Pi=1 25 s UCL = p̄ + 3σ̂p̂ = p̄ + 3 s LCL = p̄ − 3σ̂p̂ = p̄ + 3 p̄(1 − p̄) ni p̄(1 − p̄) ni Variable Sample Size III Variable Sample Size IV Control limits based on an average sample size: P25 n̄ = i=1 ni 25 s UCL = p̄ + 3σ̂p̂ = p̄ + 3 s LCL = p̄ − 3σ̂p̂ = p̄ + 3 p̄(1 − p̄) n̄ p̄(1 − p̄) n̄ I Assume: future sample sizes will not differ greatly I unusually large variation in the size of a sample or a point plots near the approximate control limits ⇒ the exact control limits for that point should be determined Variable Sample Size V Variable Sample Size VI I Sample 11: close to the UCL, yet in control I But is using Variable-width control limits: it is out-of-control I Care: points near the approximate control limits Variable Sample Size VII I Problem: a change in p̂i must be interpreted relative to ni p = 0.20 and two successive sample p̂i = 0.28, ni = 50 p̂i+1 = 0.24, ni+1 = 250 ⇒p̂i > p̂i+1 ? 0.28 − 0.2 0.24 − 0.2 ∵p = 1.41 < 1.58 = p 0.2(1 − 0.2)/50 0.2(1 − 0.2)/50 Variable Sample Size VIII The standardized control chart: I the points are plotted in standard deviation units I Center line = 0; (UCL, LCL)=(+3,-3) I The variable in standardized control chart: p̂i − p Zi = q p(1−p) ni I I p: the process fraction nonconforming in the in-control state if no standard is given p̂ = p̄ Variable Sample Size IX Minitab: Download STANDARD.mac Variable Sample Size X %STANDARD ’Di’ ’ni’ Variable Sample Size XI I difficult for operating personnel to understand and interpret I the actual process fraction defective has been “lost” OC function and ARL I Operating-characteristic (OC) function: I a graphical display of the probability of incorrectly accepting the hypothesis of statistical control (type II error, β-error) vs. p I providing a measure of the sensitivity of the control ability to detect a shift from the nominal value p̄ to some other value p β = P{p̂ < UCL|p} − P{p̂ ≤ LCL|p} = P{D < nUCL|p} − P{D ≤ nLCL|p} (D ∼ B(n, p)) I if LCL<0 ⇒ P{D ≤ nLCL|p} should be dropped OC function and ARL II OC function and ARL III ARL(平均連串長度) ARL = 1 P{sample point plots out of control} 1 α I In control: ARL0 = I Out of control: ARL1 = 1 1−β I p = p̄: α = 1 − β = 0.0027 1 ⇒ ARL0 = 0.0027 ≈ 370 I p = 0.3: β = 0.8594 1 ⇒ ARL1 = 1−0.8594 =7 I n ↑⇒ β ↓⇒ ARL1 ↓ Control charts for defects I I A nonconforming item: a unit of product I I I does not satisfy one or more of the specifications of the product at least one nonconformity depending on their nature and severity(嚴重): possible contain several nonconformities and not be classified as nonconforming 1. c chart: total number of nonconformities in a unit 2. u chart: average number of nonconformities per unit Assume: the occurrence of nonconformities in samples of constant size ∼ Poisson distribution c chart I I defects∼ Poisson distribution I x: #{nonconformities} I c: the parameter of the Poisson distribution I three-sigma limits x ∼ P(c) ⇒ p(x) = e −c c x , x! x = 0, 1, 2, . . . c chart: Standard Given √ UCL = c + 3 c Center line = c √ LCL = c − 3 c (if obtaining nagtive LCL⇒LCL=0) c chart II c chart: No Standard Given (trial control limits) √ UCL = c̄ + 3 c̄ Center line = c̄ √ LCL = c̄ − 3 c̄ c̄ = the observed average number of nonconformities in a preliminary sample of inspection units c chart III Example 7.3: Printed Circuit Boards I 26 successive sample of 100 boards c̄ = 19.85, √ √ (UCL, LCL) = (c̄+3 c̄, c̄−3 c̄) = (33.22, 6.48) c chart IV I two points plot outside the control limits I exclude the two samples: c̄ = 19.67, (UCL, LCL) = (32.97, 6.36) c chart V I #{nonconformities per board} is still unacceptably high I further action is necessary to improve the process c chart VI I c chart is more informative than p chart I several different types of nonconformities I analyzing the nonconformities by type⇒ insight into their cause c chart VII u chart I I the control chart on a sample size of n inspection units (1) nc chart: √ UCL = nc̄ + 3 nc̄ Center line = nc̄ √ LCL = nc̄ − 3 nc̄ (2) u chart: the average number of nonconformities per inspection unit i.e., u = nx r UCL = ū + 3 ū n Center line = ū r LCL = ū − 3 ū n u chart II Variable sample size: the number of inspection units in a sample will not be constant u chart III 1. Based on an average sample size: n̄ = 2. standardized statistic: ui −ū Zi = q ⇒ (UCL, LCL) = (+3, −3) ū ni Pm i=1 ni /m Alternative probability models for count data I I c chart: assume the Poisson distribution I nonconformities: cluster patterns I I compound Poisson distribution Mixtures of various types of nonconformities Demerit Systems I demerit(缺點) scheme: The number of demerits in the inspection unit: di = 100ciA + 50ciB + 10ciC + ciD I demerit weights for Class (A,B,C,D): (100,50,10,1) Demerit Systems II I #{demeritPper unit}: n Di i=1 ui = D ∼ n = n linear combination of independent Poisson r.v. UCL = ū + 3σ̂u Center line = ū LCL = ū − 3σ̂u whereū = 100ūA + 50ūB + 10ūC + ūD " (100)2 ūA + (50)2 ūB + (10)2 ūC + ūD σ̂u = n #1/2 Demerit Systems III OC curve of u chart: β = P{x < UCL|u} − P{x ≤ LCL|u} = P{c < nUCL|u} − P{cx ≤ nLCL|u} = P{nLCL ≤ x < nUCL|u} dn UCLe = X x=<n LCL> e −nu (nu)x x! Attributes and Variables Control Chart I I Variables control chart: x̄ and R charts, x̄ and s charts I I I I more information about process performance process mean and variability might be obtained provide relative to the potential cause of that out-of-control signal indication of impending(即將發生的) trouble and allow to take corrective action before any defectives are actually produced Attributes and Variables Control Chart II I Attributes control chart: p (np) chart, c chart, u chart I I I several quality characteristics can be considered jointly sometimes avoiding expensive(昂貴的) and time-consuming(費時的) measurements Generally, variables C.C. are preferable to attributes Attributes and Variables Control Chart III Example 7.7: Advantage of Variables C.C. I Nominal value of the mean and std: (µ, σ) = (50, 2) I SL (±3-σ): (USL,LSL)=(56,44) I x̄ chart: the process is in control at the nominal level of µ0 50, p0 = 0.0027 I Suppose: µ0 = 50 → µ1 = 52; p0 = 0.0027 → p1 = 0.0228; β = 0.50 i.e., P{detecting this shift on the first subsequent sample} = 0.50 I Appropriate n for x̄ chart and comparing it to the n for a p chart? Attributes and Variables Control Chart IV 3(2) UCL of x̄ chart: 50 + √ = 52 ⇒ n = 9 n β-error of p chart: n = 2 L δ p0 (1 − p0 ) = 59.98∼ = 60 Attributes and Variables Control Chart V Example 7.8: Misaaplication of x̄ and R charts I inspected a sample of the production units several times each shift using attributes inspection I p̂i : estimate of the process fraction nonconforming I A consultant: converting their fraction nonconforming data into x̄ and R charts; each group of 5 successive values of p̂i 5 1X x̄ = p̂i ; 5 i=1 R = max(p̂i ) − min(p̂i ) Attributes and Variables Control Chart VI Attributes and Variables Control Chart VII Guidelines for Implementing C.C. I Some general guidelines helpful in implementing control chart: I Determining which process characteristics to control I Determining where the charts should be implemented in the process I Choosing the proper type of control charts I Taking actions to improve processes as the results of SPC/control chart analysis I Selecting data-collection systems and computer software