Welcome to Stockholm Resilience Centre
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Welcome to Stockholm Resilience Centre – Research for Governance of Social-Ecological Systems Social-Ecological Systems, Resilience Thinking, and Sustainability: Reconnecting development to the Biosphere Carl Folke Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences People are embedded parts of the biosphere and shape it, from local to global scales, from the past to the future At the same time - people are fundamentally dependent on the capacity of the biosphere to sustain human development A biosphere shaped by humanity Anthropocene scale, connectivity, speed, spread The Anthropocene “Humans have changed the way the world works. Now they have to change the way they think about it, too” There is no question that there is an unseen world The question is, how far it is from midtown and how late is it open? Woody Allen > 50% live in urban environments Many have lost contact with the Biosphere florianotte.webseiten.cc/ alexhaensel/alex/pho... Cities and ecosystems 2015-02-03 Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre Ecosystem support areas to cities Cities in the Baltic Sea drainage basin > 250 000 inhabitants Agriculture 10-30 km2 Lakes 50 km2 Forests 20 km2 Wetlands 30-75 km2 Agriculture 50 km2 Marine 135 km2 Folke et al. 1997. Ambio City 1 km2 Forests 355-870 km2 Natural Capital 1. Non-renewable resources 2. Renewable resources 3. Environmental functions/Ecosystem services 2-3 produced by ecosystems and biodiversity 9 The Economy Land Labour Capital The Economy Natural Capital Human/ Social/ Cultural Capital HumanMade Capital Brundtland/Rio Sustainability Environment Society Economy Scale, efficiency, distribution Sustainability science, a social‐ecological approach and resilience thinking • The social-ecological approach - humanity as an embedded part of the biosphere, depending on the generation of food, water, ecosystem services, and earth system services for human wellbeing, while simultaneously shaping it from local to global scales. • Resilience thinking is about complex dynamics, how periods of gradual changes interact with abrupt changes, and the capacity to adapt or even transform into new development pathways in the face of dynamic change. Madagascar Biodiversity conservation Tengö et al. 2007 Ambio, von Heland & Folke 2013 GEC SOCIAL CONTRACT WITH THE ANCESTORS Agropastoral SES Tengö et al. 2007 Ambio, von Heland & Folke 2013 GEC Common-pool resource management and collective action Steneck et al. 2011. Cons Biol 17 Lobster success - a gilded trap? Rhode Island – 72% loss from shell disease Loss of diversity - simplification Steneck et al. 2011. Cons Biol Shifts from a state to another, a pathway to another, a trajectory to another Tipping points – regime shifts Paul Matosic – Defining moments Ex. Marine regime shifts Hughes et al. 2005. TREE Tipping points and Regime shifts http://www.regimeshifts.org/ Scheffer et al. 2001. Nature Folke et al. 2004. AREER Österblom & Folke 2015 Phil. Trans. Royal Soc B Soviet fishing and marine regime shifts Österblom & Folke 2015 Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. B Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle First migration of fully modern humans out of Africa Aborigines arrive in Australia Migrations of fully modern humans from South Asia to Europe Beginning of agriculture Great European civilisations: Greek, Roman Young and Steffen. 2009. In: Chapin et al. (eds.). Principles of Ecosystem Stewardship. Springer Planetary Boundaries: Guiding Human Development on a Changing Planet. Steffen, W., K. Richardson, J. Rockström, S. Cornell, I. Fetzer, E. Bennett, R. Biggs, S.R. Carpenter, W. de Vries, C.A. de Wit, C. Folke, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, G.M. Mace, L.M. Persson, V. Ramanathan, B. Reyers, and S. Sörlin. Science 15 January 2015 / 10.1126/ science.1259855 A SAFE OPERATING SPACE FOR HUMANITY prospering within planetary boundaries Rockström et al. 2009. Nature, Rockström et al. 2009. E&S Canberra Times The Onion Keystone species in ecosystems Transnational corporations as keystone actors in marine ecosystems worldwide • linked the production of individual companies to marine ecosystems worldwide. • investigated the potential role these companies can have in shaping marine ecosystem dynamics through their harvesting and production. • examined the companies’ worldwide networks of operations and their involvement in international policy and management processes of relevance for fisheries and aquaculture. Österblom, H., J.-B. Jouffray, C. Folke, B. Crona, M.Troell, A. Merrie, and J. Rockström. In review Transnational corporations as keystone actors of marine ecosystems 13 companies (0.5% of registered fishing and aquaculture companies worldwide) 18% of annual revenues of the global value of seafood production 11-16% of the total global marine catch 19-40% of the world’s largest or most valuable capture fisheries 10% and 14% of global fishmeal and fish oil volumes 22% of global aqua feeds (including 68% and 35% of salmon and shrimp feeds) 35% farmed salmon/trout volumes, 38% farmed Bluefin tuna Include the three largest producers of shrimp in the world, the most traded seafood commodity worldwide measured in value Österblom, H., J.-B. Jouffray, C. Folke, B. Crona, M.Troell, A. Merrie, and J. Rockström. Transnational Corporations as Keystone Actors in Marine Ecosystem. In review Shaping the dynamics of marine ecosystems Österblom, H., J.-B. Jouffray, C. Folke, B. Crona, M.Troell, A. Merrie, an J. Rockström. 32 Transnational Corporations as Keystone Actors in Marine Ecosystem. In review The keystone actors • shape their own context by participating in policy processes and initiatives where they influence decision-making – in organisations responsible for managing international fisheries – in industry organizations – in partnership with individual governments – In certification processes • catch, farm and handle >200 species from 975 subsidiaries and associates operating in >100 countries and territories Österblom, H., J.-B. Jouffray, C. Folke, B. Crona, M.Troell, A. Merrie, J. Rockström. 33 Transnational Corporations as Keystone Actors in Marine Ecosystem. In review Keystone actors of the Anthropocene defined by the following characteristics: a)dominate global production revenues and volumes within a particular sector, b)control globally relevant segments of production, c) connect ecosystems globally through subsidiaries d)influence global governance processes and institutions. Österblom, H., J.-B. Jouffray, C. Folke, B. Crona, M.Troell, A. Merrie, J. Rockström. Transnational Corporations as Keystone Actors in Marine Ecosystem. In review Energy Flux Connections GlobalFacebook Transportation System Global Internet The hyper connected biosphere Globaia 2013, The Anthropocene Journal 2013 New forms of interactions and feedbacks Folke et al. 2011. Ambio, Walker et al. 2009. Science Complex Interactions between the social, the economic and the ecological World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2013 Helbing, Nature 2013 Steffen et al. 2015. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration. The Anthropocene Review Humanity in a new biosphere terrain opportunities and challenges • new global dynamics of scale, connectivity, spread, speed, new linkages and cascading interactions, and new combinations of shocks and surprises • a new type of “great acceleration” • revolutions in information technology, microbiology and genetics and nano-technology taking off e.g. Young et al. 2006. GEC; Folke et al. 2011. Ambio; Adger et al. 2009 FEE; Liu et al. 2012. E&S What on Earth is going on? Resilience • capacity to live with change, incremental and abrupt, and continue to develop turning crises into opportunities Resilience thinking: Persistence, Adaptability and Transformability • Resilience as persistence - capacity of a SES to continually change and adapt yet remain within critical thresholds. • Adaptability - part of SES resilience, the capacity to adjust responses to changing external drivers and internal processes and thereby allow for development along the current trajectory (stability domain). • Transformability is the capacity to shift and cross thresholds into new development trajectories. The Resilience of a human friendly Biosphere/Earth System Persistence at the global level requires social-ecological transformations at regional and local scales Future Earth • Dynamic Planet • Global Development • Transformations towards Sustainability Diverse pathways on the current path? Traps or transformations - at what levels, scales? e.g. Westley et al. 2011. Tipping toward sustainability – emerging pathways of transformation. Ambio Leach et al. 2012. Transforming Innovation for sustainability. Ecology and Society Social-ecological transformations Reconnecting development to the biosphere Chile’s coastal resources Australia’s Great Barrier Reef Perceived crisis Sweden’s urban landscapes Window of opportunity Preparing the system for change Navigating the transition Building resilience of the new direction Olsson et al. 2004 E&S, 2008 PNAS, Gelcich et al. 2010 PNAS, Chapin et al. 2010. TREE, Moore et al. 2014 E&S Local, regional, global adaptive governance Kristianstad Vattenrike, Sweden - Great Barrier Reef, Australia - SO fisheries, Antarctica Schultz, Folke, Österblom, Olsson, revised Shifts towards adaptive governance of landscapes and seascapes – biosphere stewardship • awakening crisis, shared broader vision, • reframing of the human-nature relationship, • • • • key actors, policy entrepreneurs broad mobilizing of networks bridging organizations that connect levels and scales within or with new institutions, enabling environments • from silo-management to integrative landscapes • on going adaptation, experimentation, learning 49 50 Ecosystem services are generated by complex socialecological systems and require stewardship/governance of landscapes and seascapes in the new global context of the Anthropocene Grazing Seafood production Pollination Carbon sinks Seed dispersal Climate connection Carpenter and Folke. 2006. Trends Ecol. Evol. 21: 309-315 ………………. in the context of the Anthropocene In theand cross-scale dynamics Investing in NC – social-ecological innovations • Natural capital an increasingly scarce resource – critical natural capital • Stewards of natural capital and ecosystem services • Requires skills, knowledge, experience, understanding of the interacting ecoservices • Keystone actors collaborate with actors in the landscapes/seascapes – shortcut for poverty alleviation? • A new role for business emerging – expanding from CSR to environmental stewardship? • New types of institutional arrangements? 53 Reconnecting development to the biosphere • society and nature represent truly interdependent social-ecological systems • cross scale and dynamic interactions represent new challenges for governance and management in relation to social-ecological systems, ecosystem services, human wellbeing, and stewardship of the biosphere • social-ecological systems are complex adaptive systems in the face of complexity, uncertainty, and change policy relevant ’general resilience’ principles Biggs, Schlüter, et al, Annu Rev of Environment & Resources, 2012 Foster an understanding of socialecologial systems as complex adaptive systems Maintain diversity and redundancy Manage connectivity Manage slow variables and feedbacks Encourage learning & experimentation Broaden participation Promote polycentric governance systems Biggs et al. 2012 ARER, Biggs et al. 2015 Cambridge UP, Carpenter et al. 2012. Sustainability Nobel Laureate Symposium on Global Sustainability UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon High Level Panel on Global Sustainability presented its report on 30 January 2012 Humanity part of the biosphere – not just linked but intertwined Not just climate change but global change Not about saving the environment but about us and our future A resilient biosphere the basis for human development 2015-02-03 A great transformation to global sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre Reconnect development to the Biosphere The ArtScience space at SRC • part of the SRC culture since the beginning. • plays an important role in the inter and transdisciplinary research and learning process. • helps explore new concepts, patterns and diverse realities. • arena for communication, collaborate learning, and discoveries. Because the world is round it turns me on because the wind is high it blows my mind because the sky is blue it makes me cry The Beatles Be the ocean when it meets the sky Be the magic in the northern lights Be the river as it rolls along Be the rain you remember falling Neil Young People are embedded parts of the biosphere and shape it, from local to global scales, from the past to the future At the same time - people are fundamentally dependent on the capacity of the biosphere to sustain human development
