SUNY Geneseo Student Research This report is published for educational purposes only by students competing in the CFA Institute Research Challenge. Constellation Brands Inc. Cl A Ticker: STZ [NYSE] Price: $21.03 January 20, 2012 Beverages: Alcoholic Recommendation: Hold Price Target: $24.00 Earnings/Share 2010A 2011A Q1 (May) $0.33 0.38 2012E 2013E 0.39 0.49 Q2 (Aug) $0.54 0.52 0.77 0.63 Q3 (Nov) $0.54 0.66 0.50 0.63 Q4 (Feb) $0.27 0.35 0.38 0.47 Year $1.69 1.91 P/E Ratio 8.9x 10.6 2.05 2.22 10.2 9.4 Highlights We issue a hold rating on Constellation Brands Inc. with a 12 month price target of $24.00, offering a 14.1% upside. Constellation Brands has growth potential, our model assumes a 10% EBIT growth rate for the next five years based on increasing wine sales, innovation and the stabilization of consumer expectations. Constellation Brands has also been able to effectively control costs and pay down debt. However, the two major risks to this price target are the growth of operating income and the significant amount of financial leverage. Movement towards a premium wine portfolio. Over the past four years Constellation Brands has decreased its value wine brand offerings (under $10 a bottle) to focus on its premium, higher price point brands with higher margins. Since embarking on this strategy, premium sales are lower, but margins have been improving. In the long run this can help the company deleverage. Record free cash flow. Constellation Brands’ free cash flow has been very high for the past three years. This increase in free cash flow has enabled Constellation Brands to deleverage and buy back stock to increase shareholder value. Growth in Crown Imports sales despite slow moving industry. Constellation Brands, in a joint venture with Grupo Modelo S.A.B. de C.V., markets a portfolio of imported beer including Corona, the top selling imported beer in the United States. Corona has posted single digit sales at a time when the imported beer industry has been down by two percent. Market Profile STZ Daily Stock Price $24 $23 $22 $21 $20 $19 $18 $17 $16 $15 Jan-11 52 Week Price Range Average Daily Volume (3 Mo) Beta Dividend Yield Shares Outstanding (M) Market Capitalization (M) Institutional Holdings Insider Holdings Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Book Value per Share T otal Debt to T otal Capital Return on Equity $16.42 - 23.19 1,772,499.50 1.04 0.00% 202.4 4,203 89.8% 0.35% $13.19 54.1% 23.2% January 20, 2012 CFA Institute Research Challenge Business Description Constellation Brands Inc. is world’s leading premium wine company. The company produces and markets alcoholic beverages with a large portfolio of brands in the wine, spirits, and imported beer categories. The company has operations in the United States, Canada, and New Zealand. The company has three distinct business segments, Constellation Wines North America, a 20% remaining equity stake in Constellation Wines Australia and Europe (branded wine and spirits) as well as Crown Imports (imported beer). It produces and sells over 100 brands of beer, wine, and liquor in nearly 125 countries. The company has than 4,000 employees worldwide and is headquartered in Victor, New York. The company owns many prominent brands including SVEDKA Vodka, Black Velvet Canadian Whisky, Paul Masson Grande Amber Brandy, Robert Mondavi Brands, Clos du Bois, Arbor Mist, and Black Box. Crown Imports, a joint venture with Grupo Modelo S.A.B. de C.V., produces leading imported beers in the United States. Among imported beers offered through Crown Imports include the Corona family of beers, St. Pauli Girl (the second highest selling German Beer), Tsingtao (the top-selling Chinese Beer), Modelo Especial and Negra Modelo. Crown Imports has six of the top-selling 25 imported beer brands and distributes in all 50 states. Constellation Brands’ three largest business segments include: 1. Constellation Wines North America which is responsible for 44.7% of revenues and $631 million operating income, 2. Crown Imports generates 41.8% of revenues and $453 million in operating income, 3. Constellation Wines Australia and Europe generates 13.5% of revenues and $9 million in operating income. Principal Competitors The Constellation Brands’ principal competitors in the United States include E&J Gallo Winery, Foster's Group, W.J. Deutsch & Sons, Ste. Michelle Wine Estates, Kendall-Jackson, Diageo and Brown-Forman. In Canada principal competitors include Andrew Peller, Foster's Group, Kruger and E&J Gallo Winery. In the United Kingdom principal competitors include Foster's Group, Diageo, E&J GalloWinery and Pernod Ricard. Constellation Brands’ principal distilled spirits competitors include Diageo, Fortune Brands, Bacardi, Pernod Ricard, and Brown-Forman. Crown Imports' principal competitors include Anheuser-Busch, Heineken International and SABMiller. Industry Overview The wine, beer and spirits industry is typically thought to be one that sells a non-cyclical, consumer staple. The Great Contraction of 2007-present tell us something different. With large disruptions to consumer expectations and wealth, consumption of alcohol decreased on a broad basis in the past two years. There were a number of bright spots during the darker years. Value wine brands and some finer wines have succeeded in being recession-resilient and have seen sales growth in line with general industry growth going forward, in the 3% area. Domestic sales in the beer industry have fallen 1.5%-3% annually for the past three years but craft beers have experienced nearly double-digit growth in the same time and, as experts have observed, have taken customers away from the imported beers segment. Liquor and spirits have done well and are seemingly just the right amount of anesthesia consumers need when concerned about macroeconomic effects. This holds especially true for the SVEDKA brand which has exceeded every growth expectation by holding fast to what other vodka brands seem to have forgotten about- fun. Going forward, we expect more pricing power for wine producers so long as consumer expectations continue to stabilize. This of course depends on significant macroeconomic pressures that are still in the pipeline: Eurozone challenges, homeowners with negative equity increasing, and government deficits. Symphony IRI predicts a wine industry growth rate of around 3% for the next several years as business conditions improve. Long-term Generational Trends While wine is certainly subject to shorter-run trends like the business cycle, the industry is also affected by long-term factors like the U.S. generational shift. The millennial generation (21-34 years old) has demonstrated affection for wine. Now more than half of millennials are core wine drinkers, meaning that they drink wine at least once per week. This generation has also shown a preference for more premium wines as well as a greater degree of wine savviness than the Boomers and Gen X generations. However optimistic these data may make producers, it’s important to recognize that the 55 and over age group account for 44% of wine sales while the millennial generation is not even half that. This is an obvious effect of high youth 2 January 20, 2012 CFA Institute Research Challenge unemployment and low wealth relative to the older generations. Wine, despite its growing popularity, is still a luxury item. In Affluence We Trust The top 20% of U.S. household income earners account for 80% of premium wine sales and, considering recessionary pressures, are the only demographic who are going to full-service, white cloth restaurants where premium and fine wines are sold on-premises. Restaurant sales are set to increase due to stabilizing consumer expectations but this trend will take longer than the trade-up of premium wines off-premises. Premium brands marketing efforts should be aimed towards the affluent as the recessionary pressures subside. Brewer Consolidation and the Plight of Size After a decade of mergers and acquisitions, nearly 90% of the beer sold in the U.S. is made by the top four brewers. During the Great Contraction however, beer sales have been down from 1.5-2% each year which is the same fate for the imported beer category. The only segment in the industry to have grown steadily is craft beer, which has experienced double digit growth since 2003. Heineken and Corona are by far the two largest players in the imported category, and Corona has been able to outpace the decline of the category by brand loyalty and strong marketing. Competitive Positioning Corporate Strategy and Recent Divestitures Recently the company has been moving towards a more premium wine portfolio by selling off less profitable brands and retaining only those brands that show sustainable profits and growth potential. This is intended to produce sustainable organic growth going forward along with higher margins. In early 2011 the company sold off more than 80% of its UK and Australian business. The divestitures were in line with the company’s “premiumization” strategy to increase profitability and return on investment. Among these, the company sold the UK Cider business responsible for less than 17% of Constellation Wines Australian and Europe sales. Prior to the sale of the UK Cider business the company sold off a portion of its value spirit brands in hopes of maintaining high margins and sustainable growth. Larger wine and spirit companies can experience significant economies of scale due to established distribution channels with wholesalers and retailers. Competitive Position: SWOT Analysis. Strength - Increasing Profitability The company's profits have been increasing over the past three years. The operating income of the company in the fiscal years 2011, 2010 and 2009 was $502.5m, $310.8m and $29.6m respectively. Profitability indicators of the company such as operating margin and return on assets have also increased substantially in the FY 2011. Operating Margin Return on Assets 2011 15.1% 7.8% 2010 9.2% 1.2% 2009 0.8% -3.3% Strength - Dominant Position in the Wine Industry Constellation Brands is one of the largest producers of premium wines in the world. It is the largest premium wine company in the US. The company produces and sells more than 100 brands of beer, wine, and liquor. The company operates in the US, Canada, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. The company is the leading wine company in the UK, Canadian and Australian wine markets, and ranks number two in New Zealand. It is the largest beer importer and marketer in the US through Crown Imports LLC, which is a joint venture with Grupo Modelo. Weakness - Geographic Concentration A major portion of the revenues are generated from the United States even though the company operates in 125 countries and has major operations in Canada and New Zealand. The company is highly dependent on the US market for its revenues. High dependence on one country does not help the company to alleviate risks associated with uncertainties in a particular economy. 3 January 20, 2012 CFA Institute Research Challenge Opportunity - Innovation Unoaked and sweet wines, such as the Simply Naked brand and Moscato, respectively, are at the frontier of wine consumers’ tastes. Constellation Brands is well positioned in these categories with brands already in place and a marketing effort with Dave Matthews to attract a younger audience. Opportunity - Rising Demand for Wine in the US The United States wine market is one of the fastest growing markets in the world in terms of production as well as consumption. The market has been witnessing steady growth for the past few years, particularly with the younger population. This gives an opportunity for Constellation Brands to expand and grow. According to a report by 'US Wine Market Forecast to 2012', the US wine market is expected to become the market leader in wine consumption by volume. The US wine market is expected to reach a value of around $33.5 billion with 871 million gallons of wine sales by 2013. As the company has major part of its operations in the North America region, it is likely to find more growth in the region with such attractive market conditions. Threat - Intense Competition The company operates in a highly competitive environment. Competition is expected to increase further in the near future with the entry of new players in this market. This could result in price reductions. The company faces stiff competition from a broad range of companies which have substantially greater financial, marketing and distribution resources. Its key competitors include Diageo plc, Heineken N.V., E.J.Victor, Inc., InBev NV, Pernod Ricard, Foster's Group Ltd., C&C Group plc, and Remy Cointreau, among others. If the company is not able to maintain product quality and consumer loyalty, this intense competition could affect the sales volume of the company, thereby reducing its market share. Competitive Positioning: Porter’s Five Forces Constellation Brands is an industry leader in the North American market. The company utilizes a large amount of financial leverage to remain competitive, this is characteristic of large stagnating companies. Sales growth in the industry is slow and firms seek to maximize operating margins and combine it with financial leverage to affect net income. Threat of New Entrants The level of competition in the wine industry is extremely high. The threat of new entrants is primarily influenced by factors such as: economies of scale, capital investment requirements, and distribution channels. Economies of scale factors have gained popularity as competition has increased in the last decade. Economies of scale have allowed for vertical integration in the wine industry. By making large companies even larger, vertical integration has had a major effect in decreasing entries into the wine industry. Larger firms have a competitive advantage in breadth of their distribution. That is, larger firms have more resources to market their brands. However, depending on a company’s brand image and positioning objectives, distribution advantages of larger firms are not always a major problem. For example, a premium brand of wine positioned to be elite and superior in quality, does not need to have a distribution channel that it as complicated as everyday/lower quality wines. In such instance, the advantage of vertical integration in the distribution channel is not difficult to overcome. Threat of Substitutes The threat of substitutes in the alcoholic industry is substantial. Wine must compete with beer, distilled spirits, and malt beverages (i.e. Smirnoff Ice). Constellation is well positioned in this sense because it has offerings in three of these four categories. Wine has become an attractive industry because it can satisfy the needs of consumers just as well as beer and distilled spirits and is considered by some a healthier choice. Bargaining Power of Consumers Switching costs are low in the alcoholic beverages industry and there is little brand loyalty in lower end wine market. Constellation Brands has been in the process of selling its cheaper brands in order to boost the premium appearance of its overall portfolio. For the most part, wines labeled under various brands are not unique and Constellation Brands is competing in a monopolistically competitive market. Bargaining Power of Suppliers Bottling is Constellation Brands’ second largest cost of goods sold. The company’s bottlers are very concentrated and its suppliers of glass for bottling are even more limited. Increases in the cost of glass bottling will have a significant impact on Constellation Brands’ gross margins. While there are substitutes for glass bottling, there are no substitutes for the inputs of wine, beer, and distilled spirits. Increases in prices of input commodities will to a drop in gross margins if not accompanied by price increases in goods sold. The company does engage in hedging activities but only to a limited extent. 4 January 20, 2012 CFA Institute Research Challenge Intensity of Competitive Rivalry Competitive rivalry largely results due to advertisement costs. Constellation Brands advertisement costs are well tamed. Advertising expense for the years ended February 28, 2011, February 28, 2010, and February 28, 2009, was $128.6 million, $132.5 million and $175.7 million, respectively. Investment Summary We assign a target price of $24 to Constellation Brands, this provides an upside of 14.1% from the current stock price. We expect operating income to grow by 10% per year for the next five years. The largest risk to this stock price is the growth of operating income and financial leverage. The company will be using the strong free cash flow to pay off substantial amount of debt and fund the stock repurchases. The expectation of lower borrowing in the future coupled with debt repayment will result in a lower interest expense. In addition, the company expects diluted EPS of $2 - $2.10 for the fiscal year 2012. Crown Imports is a promising venture for Constellation Brands. With this venture, Constellation Brands is the leading marketer of imported beer in the United States. Crown Imports is currently outperforming the industry, leading in the import category. The main risk associated with the movement towards a more premium wine portfolio is the company’s dependency on the development and marketing of these premium brands. Additionally, competitors pose a threat to the sales volume and market share of Constellation Brands’ new premium brands. Figure 1: Constellation Brands Inc. Stock Price and News Source: Factset Research Systems Valuation We approached fair value for Constellation Brands Inc. using two methods. The first was a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and the second was a multiples analysis. Our DCF analysis supports a 12-month price target of $24, while the multiples analysis supports a $24.50 price target for the next twelve months. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Due to the diverse nature of the business segments operated by Constellation Brands Inc. we found it appropriate to assess the contributions of each segment to operating income separately and use growth rates 5 January 20, 2012 CFA Institute Research Challenge appropriate to each segment. Estimating FY 2012 EBIT only required an accurate estimate for the fourth fiscal quarter. The company’s tax rate applied in the model was 35% as deemed appropriate by historical trends. Capital expenditure, depreciation, and amortization were applied to the model using historical common size trends relative to sales. Changes in working capital were observed to be volatile over the past five years so a simple average was applied. The appropriate discount rate was determined using the capital asset pricing model and the terminal free cash flow to firm growth rate was estimated to be 3.0%. Multiples Analysis The price multiple we applied in this valuation method was Price to NTM Earnings. The historical average of P/E – NTM over the past 10 years is 12.1x. To arrive at our price target of $24.50 we multiply the P/E – NTM multiple by the $2.03 NTM basic EPS estimate. Risks to Price Target Primary risks to both methods applied to determine our price target are: 1. Reduced consumer demand for wine, 2. Slower EBIT growth than has been observed over last two years, 3. Increasing commodity prices leading to lower gross margins, 4. Loss of market share. Financial Analysis The company reported revenues of $3,332 million during the fiscal year ended February 2011, a decrease of 0.97% from 2010. The operating profit of the company was $502.50 million during the fiscal year 2011, an increase of 61.68% over 2010. The net profit of the company was $559.50 million during the fiscal year 2011, an increase of 463.44% over 2010. During fiscal year 2011, the company generated 62.6% of its revenue from the US, followed by the UK, 14.3%; Australia (8.3%) New Zealand (1.6%); Canada, 12.3% and Other, 0.6%. This dominant position in the market and wide international presence helps the company in maintaining its market share and give it the power to attract new customers and venture easily into new businesses. Constellation Brands has seen positive changes to their cash flow in recent years. Free cash flow for nine months in 2012 was $587 million. The new target for the annual cash flow is set to $700 - $750 million. This excess cash will be used to pay off substantial debt and to repurchase stock. During the first nine months of fiscal 2012 Constellation Brands repurchased 15 million shares. The decrease in interest expense is a result of lower average borrowings and deleveraging. Earnings Constellation Brands Inc. had net income of $559.5 million during the fiscal year (FY) ending February 28, 2011. The company reported net income of $342.0 million during the nine months ending November 30, 2011. Our estimate for net income for FY 2012 is $423.4 million. This is a 24.3% decrease year over year, but the company had a large divestiture of its United Kingdom and Australian operations this year. A more appropriate comparison would be profit margins. During FY 2011 net profit margin was 16.9% compared to an estimated FY 2012 net profit margin of 16%. Net Income Net Profit Margin EPS Diluted EPS 2012E $423.4 million 16% $2.22 $2.19 2011 559.5 million 16.9% 2.44 2.162 2010 99.3 million 3.0% 0.41 0.372 2009 -301.4 million -8.2% -1.27 -1.272 Constellation Brands Inc.’s sales observe seasonal fluctuations. In general, sales are weakest early in the calendar year and increase monotonically until they reach a relative peak at calendar year end. Since sales peaked in 2007 at a value of $5.22 million they have been in secular decline. The large decrease in sales this year is largely due to the divestiture of United Kingdom and Australian operations. Over the past eight years the company’s cost of goods sold relative to sales has fallen from 72% to 64%, thus contributing to the increase in gross margin from 27% to 35%. EBIT shows seasonality with the fiscal quarter (FQ) ending in November having higher earnings than FQ ending in February. EBIT grew at a CAGR of 20% from 1997 to 2007. EBIT decreased at a CAGR of 27% from 2007 to 2009. EBIT grew at a CAGR of 14% from 2009 to 2011. EBIT (operating) margins have improved from 10.9% during 2009 to 23.9% as of FQ ended November 2011. From FY 2008 to FY 2011 the company had an impairment of intangible assets equal to 7% of sales during the same four year period. The FY 2008 impairment was 22% of that year’s sales. During FY 2009 a goodwill write off of 7% of sales occurred. Since then pretax margins have returned to the historical average. 6 January 20, 2012 CFA Institute Research Challenge Since FY 2008, the company has had sizable after tax adjustments in the favor of net income every year. When this adjustment disappears net margin return to its historical norm of 4% to 7% as opposed to its FY 2011 value of 16.9% Cash Flow Based off of Constellation Brands’ most recent annual financial data and their competitors’ financial data we have calculated each companies ratio of Price-to-Cash from Operations. From our analysis it is clear that Constellation Brands cash flow is undervalued as compared to their competition. For the consistency of our analysis we will not consider Beam Inc. into the analysis for its relatively small market capitalization and its outlier ratio of Price-to-Cash from Operations. When comparing Constellation Brands with Diageo and Brown-Forman it is clear that Constellation Brands cash from operations is relatively cheap. Company Market Cap Constellation Brands (STZ) Cash From Operations Market Cap to Cash $4,012,162,600 $619,300,000 6.5 Brown-Forman (BF.B) $11,149,868,700 $527,000,000 21.2 Diageo (DEO) $54,378,480,000 $2,091,000,000 26.0 Focusing on Constellation Brands alone, it is encouraging to see relatively consistent and increasing cash from operations in conjunction with an increase of paying down debt. Over the past four years Constellation Brands has increased Cash from operations by 100 million dollars (19.14% growth). During the same time period the company has paid down more than a billion dollars in debt from the issuance of bonds and other methods of financing. Balance Sheet and Financing Over the past four years Constellation Brands has divested a portion of its business in Europe. This action has had direct effect on the company’s balance sheet. Since Constellation Brands began divesting a portion of its wine portfolio in Australia and Europe, total assets have declined by more than 40% from $10 billion in 2008 to $7.2 billion in November of 2011. Because of the divestitures taking place over this time period, the 40% reduction in the company’s total assets is not something to be concerned with. During the same four year time span beginning in FY 2008 long and short term liabilities have been decreasing proportionately with the company’s decrease in assets. From FY 2008 to this most recent quarters report, total liabilities have decreased 57% from $7.2 billion in 2008 to $4.6 billion in November of 2011. It is encouraging that not only have liabilities have been decreasing proportionately with assets through the recent divestitures, but the company has reduced its financial leverage ratio over this time period from 3.6 in FY 2008 to 2.8 in November of 2011. Corporate Life Cycle Of the five major categories in the corporate life cycle (Innovation, Expansion, Leadership, Mature, and Stagnant), Constellation Brands is a stagnant company according to our eight factor model. The factors used in our model are sales growth, gross income margin, years publicly traded, debt/capital, market value, rate of change of market share, and rate of change of return on invested capital. Compared to the constituents of the S&P 500, Constellation Brands is in the lowest quintile for sales growth, near the median for gross margin, highest quintile for debt/capital, and the lowest quintile for rate of change of return on invested capital. Constellation Brands belongs in the stagnant category for following primary characteristics: 1. poor sales growth, 2. high debt/capital ratio, 3. negative rate of change of return on invested capital. Investment Risks In this section we identify the main risks that Constellation Brands faces. Strong Competition: The wine and spirits industry is extremely fragmented; no one company has an overly dominant market share. In addition, the barriers to entry in the wine industry are very low. Constellation Brands faces strong competition from new entrants and existing competitors in terms of price, quality, and brand recognition. This strong competition might drive down average wine prices which will be a hurdle for Constellation Brands since one of its current strategies includes increasing prices. Costs related to acquisition, sale, and divestiture of brands: Constellation Brands has made various brand acquisitions and hopes to continue this strategy in the future. The costs of successfully merging new brands into existing operations could be high and materially affect their financial position. Similarly, Constellation Brands sells brands that do not do well in the market. The company may incur losses in such situations, where the brand is sold for less than the costs it accumulated. Its recent U.K. and Australia business was sold 7 January 20, 2012 CFA Institute Research Challenge to increase efficiency and cut the losses they were facing in those areas. The company might divest certain brands in future based on similar reasons which reduce market share. Change in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates: Constellation Brands has operations in New Zealand and Canada, and it sells its products in several countries around the world. As a multinational company, Constellation Brands is exposed to market risk from changes in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates that could affect the financial condition of the company. The company is exposed to foreign exchange risk through cash flow in connection with sales outside the United States. The company also engages in hedging for both commodities prices and exchange rates which imposes other risks. Increase in raw material and commodity prices: The principal materials that go into making wine are grapes, grains and glass for bottling the wine. The grapes prices depend mainly on the harvest season. A weak harvest season could drive up grapes prices which will result in higher cost of goods sold for Constellation Brands. Similarly, the glass bottle industry in the U.S. is highly concentrated with only a small number of producers. If the current arrangements with the limited number of glass suppliers do not succeed, the company might face immediate bottling problems. 8 January 20, 2012 CFA Institute Research Challenge Disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: The authors, or a member of their household, of this report does not hold a financial interest in the securities of this company. The authors, or a member of their household, of this report does not know of the existence of any conflicts of interest that might bias the content or publication of this report. Receipt of compensation: Compensation of the authors of this report is not based on investment banking revenue. Position as a officer or director: The authors, or a member of their household, do not serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject company. Market making: The authors do not act as a market maker in the subject company’s securities. Ratings guide: Banks rate companies as either a BUY, HOLD or SELL. A BUY rating is given when the security is expected to deliver absolute returns of 15% or greater over the next twelve month period, and recommends that investors take a position above the security’s weight in the S&P 500, or any other relevant index. A SELL rating is given when the security is expected to deliver negative returns over the next twelve months, while a HOLD rating implies flat returns over the next twelve months. Disclaimer: The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. The information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decisions by any person or entity. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. This report should not be considered to be a recommendation by any individual affiliated with [Society Name], CFA Institute or the CFA Institute Research Challenge with regard to this company’s stock. 9