Lake Elmo
Market Area Profile
LIZ TEMPLIN
OCTOBER 14, 2014
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Trade Area = Lake Elmo City Limits
8,179 people
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
LAKE ELMO RETAIL ANALYSIS
1. Four views of Lake Elmo retail opportunities:
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–
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Downtown analysis
Historic retail sales
Retail trade area gap analysis
Customer segmentation
2. Recommendations
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
1. DOWNTOWN
 What is in a typical Minnesota downtown?
 The study:
– 48 Minnesota downtowns w 5,000-9,999
population
– Within ½ mile of center of town
– Data: Store list from InfoUSA 2012
– (Pages 10 & 29 of report)
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
LAKE ELMO
& MINNESOTA DOWNTOWNS
(POP 5,000-9,999)
Automotive mechanical & electrical repair
Automotive parts, accessories & tire stores
Barber shops
Beer,wine & liquor stores
Drinking places (alcoholic beverages)
Florist
Gift, novelty & souvenir stores
Grocery stores
Other amusement (bowling, golf, fitness)
Other personal care services (tatoos, spas, piercing)
Pharmacies & drug stores
Specialized building material dealers
Sporting goods stores
Used merchandise stores
0
1
Mn. Downtown
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
2
3
Lake Elmo Supply
4
5
6
7
2. RETAIL SALES HISTORY
 What are Lake Elmo’s historic retail strengths?
 The Retail Trade Analysis study:
– Sales by retail category
– Data: Sales reported by businesses to the
Minnesota Department of Revenue (sales tax)
– (Page 5 of report)
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
Pull Factor
Pull Factors measure the size of a trade area.
Pull Factor =
City Sales Per Capita
State Sales Per Capita
A pull factor bigger than 1.00 means the city
is “pulling” in trade.
LAKE ELMO RETAIL STRENGTHS
 Amusement = Pull Factor of 1.6
– Golf, bowling, marinas, amusement parks, water
parks, shooting ranges, horseback riding, pool
halls, ballrooms, health clubs, ski hills, casinos
 Personal services = Pull Factor of 1.2
– Barbers, beauty shops, tanning, funeral homes,
laundromats, dry cleaners, pet care except vet
 Building materials = Pull Factor of 1.0
– Lumber, hardware, paint, tile, flooring, roofing,
fencing, lawn equipment, garden centers
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
RETAIL STRENGTHS
 People are coming to Lake Elmo for these
retail sectors
 Retail opportunity: offer full range of
products in these retail sectors
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
3. RETAIL TRADE AREA GAP ANALYSIS
 What are the retail opportunities based on
national sales?
 Data: U.S. Economic Census
– National retail sales
– National number of stores
– (Pages 6-9 of report)
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
RETAIL GAP ANALYSIS
 Based on full spending potential of all
residents
 A “ballpark” estimate
 Is NOT a business feasibility study
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
TRADE AREA GAP ANALYSIS
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
TOP RETAIL GAPS (5+ STORES)
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Limited-service eating places
Personal goods repair
Automotive mechanical & electrical repair
Full-service restaurants
Nail salons
Photographic services
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
NO GAP
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Florists
Home centers
General rental centers
Amusement parks & arcades
Motion picture & video exhibition
Beer, wine & liquor stores
Pet care (except veterinary)
Computer & software stores
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
6. CUSTOMER SEGMENTATION
Photo © UW-Madison University Communications, Jeff Miller
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
PERCENT HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME
2013
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
Minnesota
Lake Elmo
2013 PERCENT POPULATION BY AGE
25
20
15
MN
L.E.
10
5
0
0-4
5-9
10-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
6. CUSTOMER SEGMENTATION:
A BIT BEYOND DEMOGRAPHICS
$40K income,
home owner,
enjoys
museums, drives
an import car
$40K income,
renter, enjoys
hunting, drives &
repairs own
domestic truck
Photo © UW-Madison University Communications, Jeff Miller
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
65 ESRI TAPESTRY SEGMENTS
 Based on:
– Socioeconomic &
– Demographic
– Market research
 Share lifestyle traits
– Interests
– Shopping patterns
Source:
http://www.esri.com/data/esri_data/tapestry.html
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
SUBURBAN SPLENDOR
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Two-income, married couples
Well-educated
Homes have latest amenities
Travel extensively in U.S. & abroad
Interest in fitness & culture
Active in financial planning
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
What percent of Lake Elmo’s
households are classified as
“Suburban Spendor” ?
? – 69%
A – 49%
B – 59%
C – 69%
D – 79%
CROSSROADS
 Young families in mobile homes
 Median income $37,000
 Jobs in manufacturing, construction, retail
& service
 Shops at discount & convenience stores
 Buys and services used vehicles
 Enjoys fishing, cars
 Owns dogs
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
What percent of Lake Elmo’s
households are classified as
“Crossroads” ?
? – 18%
A – 12%
B – 18%
C – 25%
D – 31%
EXURBANITES (14%)
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Empty nesters & married couples w children
Jobs in management or professions
Median income is $82,000
Finances a priority
Work on their house, lawn & gardens
Hobbies are nature-based
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
STUDY GROUP RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR POTENTIAL STORES
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Coffee shop
Pizza place that delivers
Gift shop / novelty
Brewery / craft beer
Healthy food restaurant
Hardware store
Candy store
Nail salon
Movie theater
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
CAUTIONS:
 Based on existing secondary data
 Estimates / “ballparks” retail potential
 Is NOT a business feasibility study
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
ADDITIONAL CONTENT IN REPORT:
MEDIA
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Newspaper / sections
Magazine types
Radio types and times
Internet access & purchasing
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
THANKS
Liz Templin,
Extension Educator – Community
Economics
templin@umn.edu
© 2014 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.