24 April 2014
Singapore Exchange Limited
Securities and derivatives revenue flat on
muted market volumes
(Maintained at Neutral)
SINGAPORE | INVESTMENT SERVICES | QUARTERLY RESULTS

SGX reported a marginally improved set of results in a yet again challenging
quarter with a 3Q14 net profit of S$75.8m and Total revenue of S$165.6m.

Net profit beat expectations on Lower than expected expenses.

Revised fee structure, market making, liquidity provision program and joint
market consultation with MAS in a bid to enhance market quality and
liquidity

Maintain “NEUTRAL” with a revised TP of S$7.04, based on revised EPS and
unchanged PE multiple of 23X FY14 earnings
What is the news?
SGX Ltd announced 3Q14 underlying net profit of S$75.8m, up marginally 1% qq and down 22% y-y. Total revenue was also up slightly by 1% q-q but decreased
13% y-y to S$165.6m. Management has revised guidance for both FY14 Opex of
S$310m-S$315m, and Capex of S$40m-S$45m. An interim dividend of 4.0cents
per share has been declared.
Raw Beta (Past 2yrs weekly data)
0.87
Market Cap. (USD mn / SGD mn)
5903 / 7425
3M Average Daily T/O (mn)
1.6
Closing Px in 52 week range 6.66
7.85
0%
50%
100%
8.50
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
20
15
10
5
0
SGX SP EQUITY
Major Shareholders
1. SEL Hol di ngs Pte Ltd
2. Ja pa n Excha nge Group Inc
3. Va ngua rd Group Inc
Apr-14
Volume, mn
Jan-14
Key Financial Summary
FYE
FY12
FY13
FY14F FY15F FY16F
Revenue (SGD mn)
648
715
701
770
846
NPAT, a dj. (SGD mn)
304
351
327
372
429
EPS, a dj. (SGD)
0.28
0.33
0.31
0.35
0.40
P/E (X),a dj.
24.9
24.1
22.7
20.0
17.3
BVPS (SGD)
0.78
0.83
0.86
0.91
0.97
P/B (X)
8.7
9.1
8.1
7.6
7.2
DPS (SGD)
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.32
0.36
Di v. Yi el d (%)
4.0%
3.7%
4.2%
4.6%
5.2%
Source: Bl oomberg, PSR es t.
*Forwa rd mul ti pl es a nd yi el ds a re ba s ed on current pri ce a nd hi s tori ca l
mul ti pl es a nd yi el ds a re ba s ed on hi s tori ca l pri ce
Company Data
Oct-13
We revise our FY14 EPS estimates upwards by 2% to S$0.31 and note that
dividend yield is currently attractive at 4.2%. Based on an unchanged multiple of
23X FY14 earnings, we derive a revised TP of S$7.04 and maintain our rating at
“Neutral”.
7.04
0.29
6.94
5.6%
Company Description
SGX Ltd opera tes a s a n i ntegra ted s ecuri ti es
a nd deri va ti ves excha nge i n Si nga pore.
Securi ty products i ncl ude equi ti es , bonds ,
excha nge tra ded funds , wa rra nts , a nd ADRs .
Deri va ti ves products i ncl ude futures a nd
opti ons , s tructured wa rra nts , a nd extended
s ettl ements .
Jul-13
Investment Actions?
Target Price (SGD)
Forecast Dividend (SGD)
Closing Price (SGD)
Potential Upside
Apr-13
How do we view this?
3Q14’s results beat our expectations on lower than expected expenses.
Previously, we had forecasted for full year Opex of ~S$320m, hence we had
expected a lower bottom line as mentioned in our 2Q14 report. Management
has now revised their guidance on Opex downwards by S$10-15m so we have
revised our FY14 EPS estimates upwards by 2%. Securities revenue was in line
with our expectations as we had estimated in our previous report, as SDAV has
only recovered marginally. Securities average clearing fees were largely similar
at 3.1bps q-q as uncapped trades proportion has remained largely the same.
The derivatives business continues to hold up nicely both q-q and y-y with
continued momentum in the FTSE China A50 Index futures. The derivatives
business remains a key driver for SGX’s medium term growth. Derivatives
revenue is proportionally on par with Securities revenue. The key takeaways
that we look forward to are the microstructural changes to be rolled out and
introduced in the coming periods and more introductions of China-focused
derivatives products. Key re-rating catalyst will be a sustained pick-up in market
volumes, IPOs and take-off of new derivatives products launched.
Neutral
Rating:
STI rebased
(%)
23.4
4.96
1.68
Valuation Method
P/E Mul ti pl e
Analyst
Benjamin Ong
benja mi nongcw@phi l l i p.com.s g
+65 65311535
Page | 1
MCI (P) 046/11/2013
Ref. No.: SG2014_0056
Singapore Exchange Limited
23 April 2014
Results at a glance
(SGD mn)
3Q14
Securi ti es
52.3
Deri va ti ves
52.3
Others
61.0
Total Rev
165.6
Opex
77.3
Net Income
75.8
Source: Compa ny, PSR
3Q13 y-y (%) 2Q14 q-q (%)
75.6 -31%
52.2
0%
52.9 -1%
52.5
0%
32.0 90%
59.8
2%
190.6 -13% 164.6
1%
75.3
3%
76.3
1%
97.7 -22%
75.0
1%
Comments
SDAV of S$1.1B up ma rgi na l l y
Lower tha n expected
Bea t expecta ti ons
Focus points
Expect Derivatives business to be key growth driver in the medium to long-term
Fig: Equity Index Futures Contracts volume ('000 contracts)
FTSE China A50 Index Futures
Nikkei 225 Index Futures
Others
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
MSCI Taiwan Index Futures
SGX S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
Source: Company, PSR
Fig: Proportion of Equity Index Futures Contracts Volume (3Q14)
4%
FTSE China A50 Index
Futures
17%
MSCI Taiwan Index
Futures
29%
Nikkei 225 Index
Futures
32%
18%
SGX S&P CNX Nifty
Index Futures
Others
Source: Compa ny, PSR
Fig. Rev by segment (%) vs Total Operating rev ($’000)
Securities
Derivatives
Market data
Member svc
Depository svc
Issuer services
Other revenue
22%
23%
25%
25%
28%
28%
28%
28%
29%
28%
32%
32%
39%
41%
37%
40%
35%
37%
36%
40%
38%
38%
32%
32%
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
Source: Company, PSR
Page | 2
Singapore Exchange Limited
23 April 2014
Fig 1. Securities Revenue
Fig 2. Derivatives Revenue
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1Q14
3Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
3Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
2Q14
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
2Q14
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
2Q14
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
4Q12
3Q12
3Q12
2Q12
Fig 4. Member services and connectivity
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
2Q12
1Q12
Fig 5. Depository services
4Q11
9
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
1Q12
Fig 3. Market Data Revenue
-
4Q11
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
Fig 6. Issuer services
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
2Q12
Fig 8. Total revenue
Securities
250 Depository svc
Derivatives
Market data
Issuer services
Other revenue
Member svc
200
150
100
50
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
Member svc
3Q12
Market data
2Q12
150Derivatives
1Q12
Fig 9. Total revenue - Less Securities
4Q11
0
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1Q12
Fig 7. Other revenue
4Q11
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
-
1Q12
5
4Q11
5
-
Fig 10. Total revenue - Less Securities and Derivatives
Depository svc
Issuer services
Other revenue
80
Market data
Member svc
Depository svc
Issuer services
Other revenue
60
100
40
50
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
0
4Q11
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
0
20
Page | 3
Singapore Exchange Limited
23 April 2014
Fig 11. Operating Revenue and NPAT
250
Fig 12. SDAV ($ M ) vs Price
Ops rev ('000)
2,000
NPAT
200
SDAV
8.00
Price (RHS)
7.75
1,500
7.50
150
1,000
7.25
100
6.50
15 Apr
26 Mar
06 Mar
14 Feb
25 Jan
Fig 13. 1/2 Yr Price Earnings Ratio (TTM)
6.75
05 Jan
-
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
-
7.00
500
50
Fig 14. 5 yr Price Earnings Ratio (TTM)
23
40
23
22.46
22.19
SD + 1
22
22
Mea n
21.50
21
20.80
35
SD + 1
30
20
SD - 1
Apr 14
Nov 13
Jul 13
Feb 13
Oct 12
May 12
Dec 11
Aug 11
Mar 11
Nov 10
Jun 10
Jan 10
Sep 09
Apr 09
Apr 14
Mar 14
Feb 14
Jan 14
Dec 13
10
Nov 13
15
20
Oct 13
21
28.41
25.53
22.59
22.65
Mea n
25
Page | 4
Singapore Exchange Limited
23 April 2014
For Financial Summary at the end of report
FYE
Income Statement (SGD mn)
Securi ti es
Deri va ti ves
Others
Operating revenue
Opera ti ng expens es
Operating profit
Other ga i ns /(l os s es )
As s oci a tes & JVs
Profit Before Tax
Ta xa ti on
Net Income, reported
Net Income, adj.
FYE
Per share data (SGD)
EPS, reported
EPS, a dj.
DPS
BVPS
FY12
FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F
248
163
236
648
284
364
(6)
(3)
355
(64)
292
304
270
201
245
715
301
414
(10)
4
408
(72)
336
351
FY12
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.78
FY13
0.31
0.33
0.28
0.83
239
210
252
701
314
387
5
4
395
(67)
327
327
280
230
260
770
329
441
5
4
450
(78)
372
372
321
258
267
846
336
510
5
5
519
(90)
429
429
FY14F FY15F FY16F
0.31
0.31
0.29
0.86
0.35
0.35
0.32
0.91
FYE
Balance Sheet (SGD mn)
PPE
Softwa re
AFS i nves tments
Others
Total non-current assets
Recei va bl es
Ca s h
Others
Total current assets
Total Assets
Pa ya bl es
Others
Total current liabilities
Total non-current liabilities
Total Liabilities
Shareholder Equity
FY12
FYE
Valuation Ratios
P/E (X), a dj.
P/B (X)
Di vi dend Yi el d (%)
Growth & Margins (%)
Growth
Securi ti es Revenue
Deri va ti ves Revenue
Revenue
Net Income, a dj.
Margins
Net profi t ma rgi n
Core profi t ma gi n
Key Ratios
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Di vi dend Pa yout ra ti o
Cos t to Income
FY12
26
119
66
6
217
779
698
35
1,512
1,729
796
78
874
22
896
833
FY13
24
112
51
28
215
757
763
60
1,580
1,794
783
100
884
22
906
889
FY14F FY15F FY16F
17
113
51
29
210
841
744
60
1,645
1,856
799
115
915
21
936
920
12
116
52
33
214
924
790
60
1,774
1,988
878
115
993
21
1,015
973
10
110
54
38
212
1,015
849
60
1,924
2,136
964
115
1,080
21
1,101
1,035
0.40
0.40
0.36
0.97
FYE
FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F
Cashflow Statements (SGD mn)
CFO
PBT
355
408
395
450
519
Adjus tments
53
56
72
46
65
WC cha nges
(9)
6
(69)
(4)
(5)
Ca s h genera ted from ops
399
470
398
492
580
Ta xes pa i d, net
(57)
(52)
(67)
(78)
(90)
Cashflow from ops
342
419
331
414
490
CFI
CAPEX, net
(51)
(28)
(50)
(50)
(64)
Others
6
(12)
0
0
0
Cashflow from investments
(45)
(40)
(50)
(50)
(64)
CFF
Di vi dends
(288) (289) (300) (319) (367)
Others
(5)
(25)
0
0
0
Cashflow from financing
(293) (314) (300) (319) (367)
Net change in cash
5
65
(19)
45
59
CCE, end
548
613
594
640
699
Source: Compa ny Da ta , PSR es t
24.9
8.7
4.0%
FY13
24.1
9.1
3.7%
FY14F FY15F FY16F
22.7
8.1
4.2%
20.0
7.6
4.6%
17.3
7.2
5.2%
-14.0% 8.5% -11.4% 17.4% 14.3%
15.0% 23.1% 4.6% 9.5% 12.0%
-1.9% 10.4% -2.0% 9.9% 9.8%
-2.5% 15.5% -6.7% 13.6% 15.4%
44.6% 46.6% 46.4% 48.0% 50.5%
46.5% 48.7% 46.4% 48.0% 50.5%
36.7% 40.8% 36.2% 39.3% 42.7%
16.7% 19.9% 17.9% 19.4% 20.8%
95%
85%
95%
92%
90%
43.8% 42.1% 44.8% 42.7% 39.7%
Page | 5
Singapore Exchange Limited
23 April 2014
Ratings History
Market Price
Target Price
9.00
8.50
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
1
2
3
4
5
PSR Rating System
Total Returns
Recommendation Rating
> +20%
Buy
1
+5% to +20%
Accumul a te
2
-5% to +5%
Neutra l
3
-5% to -20%
Reduce
4
< -20%
Sel l
5
Remarks
We do not ba s e our recommenda tions entirel y on the a bove qua ntitative
return ba nds . We cons i der qua l i tative fa ctors l i ke (but not l i mi ted to) a s tock's
ri s k rewa rd profi l e, ma rket s entiment, recent ra te of s ha re pri ce a ppreci a tion,
pres ence or a bs ence of s tock pri ce ca tal ys ts , a nd s pecul a tive undertones
s urroundi ng the s tock, before ma ki ng our fi na l recommenda tion
Page | 6
Singapore Exchange Limited
23 April 2014
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Page | 7
Singapore Exchange Limited
23 April 2014
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Contact Information (Regional Member Companies)
MALAYSIA
Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd
B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II,
No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450
Kuala Lumpur
Tel +603 2162 8841
Fax +603 2166 5099
Website: www.poems.com.my
HONG KONG
Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd
11/F United Centre 95 Queensway
Hong Kong
Tel +852 2277 6600
Fax +852 2868 5307
Websites: www.phillip.com.hk
JAPAN
Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd.
4-2 Nihonbashi Kabuto-cho Chuo-ku,
Tokyo 103-0026
Tel +81-3 3666 2101
Fax +81-3 3666 6090
Website:www.phillip.co.jp
INDONESIA
PT Phillip Securities Indonesia
ANZ Tower Level 23B,
Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A
Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia
Tel +62-21 5790 0800
Fax +62-21 5790 0809
Website: www.phillip.co.id
CHINA
Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co Ltd
No 550 Yan An East Road,
Ocean Tower Unit 2318,
Postal code 200001
Tel +86-21 5169 9200
Fax +86-21 6351 2940
Website: www.phillip.com.cn
THAILAND
Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd
15th Floor, Vorawat Building,
849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak,
Bangkok 10500 Thailand
Tel +66-2 6351700 / 22680999
Fax +66-2 22680921
Website www.phillip.co.th
FRANCE
King & Shaxson Capital Limited
3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008
Paris France
Tel +33-1 45633100
Fax +33-1 45636017
Website: www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED KINGDOM
King & Shaxson Capital Limited
6th Floor, Candlewick House,
120 Cannon Street,
London, EC4N 6AS
Tel +44-20 7426 5950
Fax +44-20 7626 1757
Website: www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED STATES
Phillip Futures Inc
141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050
The Chicago Board of Trade Building
Chicago, IL 60604 USA
Tel +1-312 356 9000
Fax +1-312 356 9005
AUSTRALIA
PhillipCapital
Level 12, 15 William Street,
Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia
Tel +61-03 9629 8288
Fax +61-03 9629 8882
Website: www.phillipcapital.com.au
SRI LANKA
Asha Phillip Securities Limited
No 10, Prince Alfred Tower,
Alfred House Gardens,
Colombo 3, Sri Lanka
Tel: (94) 11 2429 100 Fax: (94) 11 2429 199
Website: www.ashaphillip.net/home.htm
INDIA
PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited
No. 1, C‐Block, 2nd Floor, Modern Center , Jacob
Circle, K. K. Marg, Mahalaxmi Mumbai 400011
Tel: (9122) 2300 2999
Fax: (9122) 6667 9955
Website: www.phillipcapital.in
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