MATH 2510 Rolf Poulsen December 1, 2010 Financial Mathematics 2: Facts and — Mostly — Formulas The annuity symbol. The present value of a £1 n-year annuity when the interest rate is i is an i = 1 − vn , i where v = 1/(1 + i). Puts and calls. The pay-off of a strike-K, expiry-T call-option (right but not obligation to buy) is Call(T ) = (S(T ) − K)+ := max(S(T ) − K, 0). The pay-off a put-option (right but not obligation to sell) is P ut(T ) = (K − S(T ))+ = max(K − S(T ), 0). The put-call parity links put and call prices Call(0) − P ut(0) = S(0) − PT K, where PT is the maturity-T zero-coupon bond price. Forwards and futures. Arbitrage-free time-0, delivery/maturity/expiry-T forward prices P • Deterministic cash dividends: F wd(0, T ) = (S(0) − ti dti Pti )/PT • Dividend yield (∼ foreign interest rate): F wd(0, T ) = e(r−q)T S(0) With constant interest rates, forward and futures prices are equal. The holder of a long position in a futures contract receives (gets/pays) F ut(t, T ) − F ut(t − dt, T ) at time t P Bonds and interest rates. Zero-coupon bonds prices Pt satisfy P ricej = t cj,t Pt for any bond j with time-t cash-flow cj,t . Zero-coupon spot rates satisfy Pt = (1 + yt )−t ⇒ yt = (Pt )−1/t − 1. The 1-year-ahead forward rates are ft = Pt /Pt+1 − 1 with P0 = 1. The yearly payment for a £100, n-year annuity bond with coupon rate c is 100/an c . The yield to maturity, ytmj , of bond j is the solution of the non-linear equation P ricej = X t cj,t . (1 + ytmj )t The n-year par yield is 1 − Pn (py)n = Pn . t=1 Pt Duration and immunization. The — or: our — use of Macauley duration requires — or: assumes — a flat yield curve; Pt = (1 + y)−t . 1 Macauley duration is τ= 1 X t × ct , P V t (1 + y)t P where ct ’s are cash-flows and P V = t ct (1 + y)−t is the present value The Macauley duration of an n-year bond with coupon payments D and redemption R is τbond = D × (IA)n y + R × nv n , D × an y + R × v n where v = 1/(1 + y) and the ”increasing annuity” symbol is (IA)n y = (1 + y)an y − nv n . y Putting R = 0 gives annuity results. The duration of a portfolio (x1 , . . . , xn ) is the value-weighted average of the durations of its constituents n X P Vj × τj τpf = . xj P Vpf j=1 To achieve Redingtion immunization, present values and durations of assets and liabilities must match. Furthermore the convexity of assets must be bigger than the convexity of liabilities — meaning that the asset payments are more dispersed than the liability payments. Random variables. For a discrete random variable X and a function f we have X E(f (X)) = f (x)Prob(X = x). x For a continuous random variable, the right hand side in the equation above must be substituted by the integral of f wrt. the density function. For any random variable X we have var(X) = E(X 2 ) − (E(X))2 . Variance is non-negative, and standard deviation is the square root of variance. Q Q For independent random variables Xi , we have E( i Xi ) = i E(Xi ) 2 X ∼ N (µ, σ 2 ) ⇒ E(eX ) = eµ+σ /2 X ∼ N (µ, σ 2 ) ⇒ aX + b ∼ N (aµ + b, a2 σ 2 ) A sum of independent normal variables is normal with mean and variance equal to the sum of the means and variances of the constituents. Y is log-normal if ln Y is normal. Investments with random rates of return. For the time-n value of a single, £1 investment made at time 0 — the accumulated wealth, Sn — we have Snk = n Y (1 + it )k , t=1 where the it ’s are the yearly (effective) rates of return and k is some integer. For an annuity investment of £1 per year the accumulated wealth, At , satisfies Akt = (1 + it )k (1 + At−1 )k , with the convention that At is the value immediately before the time-t investment is made. 2