Most advanced economies face shrinking workforces, while many young countries face explosive growth.
POPULATION AGING WILL RESHAPE
GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND GEOPOLITICS
Europe’s working-age population is projected to decline by 10%, or nearly 50 million. Less developed countries are projected
to see a work-force gain of nearly 1 billion, with about half of that occurring in Asia and nearly 40% in Africa.
May 2010
Adele Hayutin, Ph.D.
Director, Global Aging Program
ahayutin@stanford.edu
Populations Shift to Older People: Pyramid to Cube
As fertility falls and longevity increases, a country’s age profile changes from a pyramid with a broad base of young people to a cube with a more
even distribution across age brackets. If fertility remains low, the population will become top-heavy with older people.
The share of older people (65+) is increasing almost everywhere, but at different rates depending on changes in fertility and longevity. These
population age shifts have profound impacts on everything from a country’s work-force growth and economic prospects to public and personal
budgets, security risks, cultural institutions and family structures.
Oldest Countries: Working-age populations shrink; age structures become top-heavy with old people.
• Fertility has been below replacement
level of 2.1 births per woman for the
last 15-20 years.
• Working-age population (15-64) is
shrinking.
Change in Working-Age
Population, 2010-30
• Declining work-force growth
combined with the increasing fiscal
burden of retirees threatens economic
growth and current living standards.
• Selected countries: Germany,
Greece, Italy, Japan, Singapore,
South Korea.
Shrinking (-25% to 0%)
Slow Growth (0% to 25%)
Moderate Growth (25% to 50%)
Too Fast to Absorb (50% to 100%)
Japan
65+
Median age
55
45
15-64
22
0-14
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
8
6
127 million
2010
83 million
1950
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
102 million
2050
“Middle-Age” Countries: Work-force growth continues but at a slower pace; age structures become cube-like.
Dangerously Fast (100% +)
• Fertility rates are approaching or
already below replacement rate.
The Global Aging Program at the Stanford Center on Longevity focuses on the economic and political implications of longevity. The
program specifically addresses the risks and opportunities of population age shifts around the world. Understanding the implications of these
Population Age Shifts will be critical for effective policy making.
The Stanford Center on Longevity is working to transform the culture of human aging. The Center studies the nature and development of
the entire human life span, looking for innovative ways to use science and technology to solve the problems of people over 50 and improve
the well-being of people of all ages. To inspire change of this scale, the Center brings together the best minds in academia, business and
government to target the most important challenges and solutions for older populations. The Center was founded by two of the world’s
leading authorities on longevity and aging, Stanford professors Laura L. Carstensen, PhD, and Thomas Rando MD, PhD, and received its
initial funding from Texas investor Richard Rainwater.
US
65+
• Work-force growth will be slow or
moderate, eventually becoming
negative in some countries.
Median age
• Sustained economic growth will
require productivity gains to offset
slower work-force growth.
• Selected countries: Australia, Brazil,
Canada, China, Ireland, Mexico,
Thailand, Tunisia, United States,
Vietnam.
42
37
30
15-64
0-14
20 15 10 5
0
5 10 15 20
20 15 10 5
0
5 10 15 20
20 15 10 5
318 million
2010
158 million
1950
0
5 10 15 20
404 million
2050
Young Countries: Rapid growth in working-age population threatens economic and political stability.
Adele Hayutin, Ph.D., Senior Research Scholar and Director of SCL's Global Aging Program, is a leader in the field of comparative
international demographics and population aging. Dr. Hayutin combines broad knowledge of the underlying data with the ability to translate
that data into practical, easy to understand language and implications. She has developed a comparative international perspective that
highlights surprising demographic differences across countries and illustrates the unexpected speed of critical demographic changes.
Previously she was director of research and chief economist of the Fremont Group (formerly Bechtel Investments) where she focused on
issues and trends affecting business investment strategy. Dr. Hayutin received a BA from Wellesley College and a Master's in Public Policy
and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Global Aging Program
Stanford Center on Longevity
616 Serra Street, E Wing 5th Floor
Stanford, CA 94305-6053
(650) 736-8643
http://longevity.stanford.edu/myworld
Data Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision Medium Variant Forecast
©2010 Stanford Center on Longevity, http://longevity.stanford.edu
• Fertility rates are falling but still
relatively high; age structure remains
pyramidal.
Pakistan
65+
• Working-age population will continue
to grow rapidly, though the pace will
slow.
• “Youth bulges” increase the risk of
violent conflict; the challenge is to
provide work for a large share of
young adults.
• Selected countries: Afghanistan,
Bolivia, Nigeria, India, Iraq, Pakistan,
Philippines, Uganda.
33 15-64
Median age
24
21
0-14
15
10
5
0
5
41 million
1950
10
15
15
10
5
0
5
185 million
2010
10
15
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
335 million
2050
Population in millions by five-year age bracket from 0-4 to 100+. Males on left, females on right.
Data Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision Medium Variant Forecast
©2010 Stanford Center on Longevity, http://longevity.stanford.edu
Global Aging
Dramatic and unprecedented shifts toward older age brackets are occurring at vastly different
rates around the world. Understanding these differences is critical for developing policies that
effectively address the economic and geopolitical challenges of population aging.
Share of Population Age 65 and Older
UK
EU 27
Sweden
Russia
% 65+, 1950-2050
Canada
World
US
The U.S. is
relatively
young
compared with
Europe and
Japan. The
current share
65+ is only
13%, with
22% projected
for 2050.
South Korea has one of the world’s most
rapidly aging populations. By 2050, 34% of the
population will be 65+, second only to Japan.
Germany
European countries are
among the world's oldest
populations. Italy and
Germany currently have
more than 20% 65+, with
33% projected for 2050.
40%
30%
20%
Mexico
South
Korea
Poland
The worldwide share of
population age 65 and older
is projected to more than
double to over 16% by 2050.
10%
Italy
China
Iran
Turkey
Japan
Japan will continue to have
the world’s oldest population:
23% 65+ in 2010, increasing to
38% in 2050. Life expectancy
is among the world’s highest,
and the fertility rate among the
world’s lowest.
0%
India
Pakistan
Ethiopia
1950 2000 2050
Vietnam
Philippines
Saudi Arabia
Nigeria
Colombia
Mexico will age rapidly over the next
40 years, and by 2050, 22% of the
population will be 65+, up from just
7% in 2010.
Europe and Japan are currently the oldest; by
2030 several Asian Tigers join the ranks of the
oldest.
% 65+, Rank
Japan
Germany
Singapore
Italy
Hong Kong
Finland
Austria
Slovenia
Portugal
France
Belgium
Switzerland
Greece
Netherlands
Croatia
South Korea
US
EU 27
World
2010
22.6%
20.5%
10.2%
20.4%
12.9%
17.2%
17.6%
16.4%
17.9%
17.0%
17.4%
17.3%
18.3%
15.4%
17.3%
11.0%
13.0 %
17.5 %
7.6 %
2030
1
2
51
3
41
13
8
19
6
16
10
12
4
23
11
49
Dem. Rep.
of Congo
Sub-Saharan Africa is home to
most of the world's youngest
populations. While the share
65+ will remain low, the
number of people 65+ in subSaharan Africa will triple over
the next 40 years, from 27
million to 104 million.
Argentina
16 Oldest Countries, 2030
Country
Singapore
Brazil
30.8%
28.2%
27.5%
26.8%
26.3%
25.1%
24.8%
24.6%
24.5%
24.3%
24.1%
24.1%
24.0%
23.8%
23.8%
23.2%
19.8%
23.8%
11.7%
Chile
Indonesia
China's population is rapidly aging.
Due largely to its steep fertility rate
decline in the 1970s and its one-child
policy begun in 1979, China’s share
65+ is projected to increase to 23%
by 2050. In contrast, India's fertility
rate has declined more slowly; its
share 65+ is projected to increase to
only 14% by 2050.
South
Africa
Australia
2050
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
37.8%
32.5%
32.6%
33.3%
32.6%
25.9%
29.4%
30.2%
32.1%
26.9%
26.6%
26.0%
31.3%
25.6%
28.2%
34.2%
21.6%
28.7%
16.3%
1
6
4
3
5
27
15
13
7
20
21
24
9
29
18
2
3. Declining Potential Support Ratios
2. Rising Median Age
1. Declining Fertility Rates
Fertility has decreased worldwide, but at different rates.
Years
Births per woman
8
7
Nigeria
6
Pakistan
5
US
Japan
50
Italy
45
China
US
40
China
3
2
55
35
4
Japan
1
Data Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision Medium Variant Forecast
Nigeria
Japan
US
2025
2050
1950
China
Italy
20
2000
Pakistan
10
5
15
1975
15
Nigeria
25
Italy
Potential workers (15-64) per retiree (65+)
20
Pakistan
30
0
1950
As countries age, the ratio of potential workers
(15-64) to retirees (65+) declines, increasing the
fiscal burden on workers.
The pace of aging varies dramatically;
many countries face steep gains in median age.
0
1975
2000
2025
2050
1950
1975
2000
2025
©2010 Stanford Center on Longevity, http://longevity.stanford.edu
2050
Most advanced economies face shrinking workforces, while many young countries face explosive growth.
POPULATION AGING WILL RESHAPE
GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND GEOPOLITICS
Europe’s working-age population is projected to decline by 10%, or nearly 50 million. Less developed countries are projected
to see a work-force gain of nearly 1 billion, with about half of that occurring in Asia and nearly 40% in Africa.
May 2010
Adele Hayutin, Ph.D.
Director, Global Aging Program
ahayutin@stanford.edu
Populations Shift to Older People: Pyramid to Cube
As fertility falls and longevity increases, a country’s age profile changes from a pyramid with a broad base of young people to a cube with a more
even distribution across age brackets. If fertility remains low, the population will become top-heavy with older people.
The share of older people (65+) is increasing almost everywhere, but at different rates depending on changes in fertility and longevity. These
population age shifts have profound impacts on everything from a country’s work-force growth and economic prospects to public and personal
budgets, security risks, cultural institutions and family structures.
Oldest Countries: Working-age populations shrink; age structures become top-heavy with old people.
• Fertility has been below replacement
level of 2.1 births per woman for the
last 15-20 years.
• Working-age population (15-64) is
shrinking.
Change in Working-Age
Population, 2010-30
• Declining work-force growth
combined with the increasing fiscal
burden of retirees threatens economic
growth and current living standards.
• Selected countries: Germany,
Greece, Italy, Japan, Singapore,
South Korea.
Shrinking (-25% to 0%)
Slow Growth (0% to 25%)
Moderate Growth (25% to 50%)
Too Fast to Absorb (50% to 100%)
Japan
65+
Median age
55
45
15-64
22
0-14
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
8
6
127 million
2010
83 million
1950
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
102 million
2050
“Middle-Age” Countries: Work-force growth continues but at a slower pace; age structures become cube-like.
Dangerously Fast (100% +)
• Fertility rates are approaching or
already below replacement rate.
The Global Aging Program at the Stanford Center on Longevity focuses on the economic and political implications of longevity. The
program specifically addresses the risks and opportunities of population age shifts around the world. Understanding the implications of these
Population Age Shifts will be critical for effective policy making.
The Stanford Center on Longevity is working to transform the culture of human aging. The Center studies the nature and development of
the entire human life span, looking for innovative ways to use science and technology to solve the problems of people over 50 and improve
the well-being of people of all ages. To inspire change of this scale, the Center brings together the best minds in academia, business and
government to target the most important challenges and solutions for older populations. The Center was founded by two of the world’s
leading authorities on longevity and aging, Stanford professors Laura L. Carstensen, PhD, and Thomas Rando MD, PhD, and received its
initial funding from Texas investor Richard Rainwater.
US
65+
• Work-force growth will be slow or
moderate, eventually becoming
negative in some countries.
Median age
• Sustained economic growth will
require productivity gains to offset
slower work-force growth.
• Selected countries: Australia, Brazil,
Canada, China, Ireland, Mexico,
Thailand, Tunisia, United States,
Vietnam.
42
37
30
15-64
0-14
20 15 10 5
0
5 10 15 20
20 15 10 5
0
5 10 15 20
20 15 10 5
318 million
2010
158 million
1950
0
5 10 15 20
404 million
2050
Young Countries: Rapid growth in working-age population threatens economic and political stability.
Adele Hayutin, Ph.D., Senior Research Scholar and Director of SCL's Global Aging Program, is a leader in the field of comparative
international demographics and population aging. Dr. Hayutin combines broad knowledge of the underlying data with the ability to translate
that data into practical, easy to understand language and implications. She has developed a comparative international perspective that
highlights surprising demographic differences across countries and illustrates the unexpected speed of critical demographic changes.
Previously she was director of research and chief economist of the Fremont Group (formerly Bechtel Investments) where she focused on
issues and trends affecting business investment strategy. Dr. Hayutin received a BA from Wellesley College and a Master's in Public Policy
and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Global Aging Program
Stanford Center on Longevity
616 Serra Street, E Wing 5th Floor
Stanford, CA 94305-6053
(650) 736-8643
http://longevity.stanford.edu/myworld
Data Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision Medium Variant Forecast
©2010 Stanford Center on Longevity, http://longevity.stanford.edu
• Fertility rates are falling but still
relatively high; age structure remains
pyramidal.
Pakistan
65+
• Working-age population will continue
to grow rapidly, though the pace will
slow.
• “Youth bulges” increase the risk of
violent conflict; the challenge is to
provide work for a large share of
young adults.
• Selected countries: Afghanistan,
Bolivia, Nigeria, India, Iraq, Pakistan,
Philippines, Uganda.
33 15-64
Median age
24
21
0-14
15
10
5
0
5
41 million
1950
10
15
15
10
5
0
5
185 million
2010
10
15
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
335 million
2050
Population in millions by five-year age bracket from 0-4 to 100+. Males on left, females on right.
Data Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision Medium Variant Forecast
©2010 Stanford Center on Longevity, http://longevity.stanford.edu