Name: _________________________
Date: ________________
Environmental Science
Block: ____
Lab - How Will Our Population Grow?
INTRODUCTION
If you were a demographer, you might be asked to determine how a population is likely to
change in the future. We have learned that the rate of population growth is affected by
both the number of children each woman has and the age at which a woman has children.
But which factor has a greater effect? To explore this question, you will use Excel to
generate population growth curves.
OBJECTIVES
Predict which variable has a greater effect on population growth rates.
Calculate changes for a given population over a 50-year period.
Graph the resulting population’s age structure by creating a population pyramid.
Compare the effects of fertility variables on population growth rates.
MATERIALS

computer

calculator

notebook
PROCEDURE
1. In this lab you will calculate future population trends for four countries. To compare how fertility
variables may affect population growth, each group of students will test the effects of different
conditions. Assume the following about the population of this country:
TABLE 1: ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE POPULATION
Half the population is male and half is female.
Every woman will have all of her children during a given five-year period of her life.
Everyone who is born will live to the age of 85 and then die.
No one will move into or out of the city.
2. The class will be divided into groups of four. Each member will project population growth using
the following assumptions:
TABLE 2: ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE WOMEN IN THE POPULATION
Group
Each woman gives birth to
While in the age range of
A-Somalia
5 children
15–19
B-Burundi
5 children
25–29
C-Bangladesh
2 children
15–19
D-France
2 children
25–29
1
Name ____________________________ Block ___________ Date ___________
How Will Our Population Grow? (continued)
3. Predict which of the four countries will have the greatest population growth in 50 years. Write
down the order you would predict for the relative size of the groups from largest population to
smallest population.
________________ ________________ ________________ ________________
4. Table 3 shows the population of the country for the year 2000. Calculate the number of 0- to 4year-olds in the year 2005. To do this, first determine how many women will have children
between 2000 and 2005. Remember that half of the population in each age group is female, and
that members of the population will reproduce at specific ages. Multiply the number of childbearing women by the number of children that each woman will have. For example, Country A will
have 12,500 new births by 2005 [(5000

2)  5].
TABLE 3: POPULATION IN EACH AGE GROUP, 2000–2050, COUNTRY _______________
Age
2000
80+
100
75–79
500
70–74
600
65–69
700
60–64
800
55–59
900
50–54
1,000
45–49
1,250
40–44
1,500
35–39
2,000
30–34
2,500
25–29
3,000
20–24
4,000
15–19
5,000
10–14
6,500
5–9
8,000
0–4
10,000
Total
48,350
Females
that give
birth
2,500
New
births
12,500
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Note: Data shown above for Group A only.
2
Name ____________________________ Block ___________ Date ___________
How Will Our Population Grow? (continued)
5. Fill in the entire column for the year 2005. Determine the number of people in each age group by
“shifting” each group from 2000. For example, the number of 0- to 4-year-olds in 2000 will be
the same as the number of 5- to 9-year-olds in 2005.
6. Calculate the total population for each five-year period.
7. Repeat the process described in steps 3–8 for each column, to complete Table 3 through the year
2050.
ANALYSIS
1. Constructing Graphs Use Excel to plot the growth of the population on a line graph.
CONCLUSIONS
1. Evaluating Data Compare your graphs with the graphs of the other three members of the group.
Were your predictions correct? Be specific.
2. Drawing Conclusions Which variable had a greater effect on population growth—the number of
children each woman had or the age at which each woman had children? Use evidence to support
your statement.
3. Interpreting Information Did any of the countries show no growth in the population? Explain
these results.
3