Institutional Research Publications
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For the Month of January 20161
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To obtain copies of any of our research reports, including the 44 published in
January 2016, please contact your account executive on 1-800-929-2299 or click on any
of the company names in this document.
LONDON
Imperial Capital (International) LLP
One Eagle Place
London SW1Y 6AF
+44 (0) 207 650 5400
The ADT Corporation (ADT: Outperform)
1Q16 Earnings Preview—Estimated Lower Attrition and Subscriber Acquisition
Cost, and Increasing ARPU and RMR; Maintaining Our Outperform Rating and
Our $43 Price Target January 29, 2016
Jeff Kessler
(212) 351-9701
jkessler@imperialcapital.com
BOSTON
101 Arch Street
Boston, MA 02110
(617) 478-7600/(888) 479-9696
Saliq Khan
(212) 351-9453
saliq.khan@imperialcapital.com
CHICAGO
200 South Wacker Drive
Chicago, IL 60606
(312) 674-4713
Allegion plc (ALLE: Outperform)
Raising Our Rating to Outperform from In-Line; Maintaining Our $68 Price
Target; Current Stock Price Decline Not Reflective of Incremental Improvement
from Recent Acquisitions or Company’s Growing Global Market Share
January 14, 2016
HOUSTON
1330 Post Oak Boulevard
Houston, TX 77056
(713) 353-3923
Jeff Kessler
(212) 351-9701
jkessler@imperialcapital.com
MINNEAPOLIS
60 South Sixth Street
Minneapolis, MN 55402
(612) 333-0130
Saliq Khan
(212) 351-9453
saliq.khan@imperialcapital.com
Arch Coal, Inc. (ACI)
PALM BEACH
3801 PGA Boulevard
Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33410
(561) 214-7901
Situation Overview: Arch Coal Files Chapter 11: Withdrawing Our Previous Buy
Ratings on First Lien Term Loan, Second Lien Notes, and Unsecured Notes.
Company Enters into Restructuring Support Agreement with First Lien Lenders
January 12, 2016
Matthew Farwell, CFA
(212) 351-9770
mfarwell@imperialcapital.com
SAN FRANCISCO
One California Street
San Francisco, CA 94111
(415) 615-4000
1
www.imperialcapital.com
Member FINRA and SIPC
Common equity ratings provided. For debt ratings, please refer to individual reports, available on our
Web site: www.imperialcapital.com.
Imperial Capital, LLC
Barracuda Networks, Inc. (CUDA: In-Line)
Diamond Resorts International, Inc.
(DRII: Outperform)
F3Q16 Results Consistent with Our Estimates and
Consensus; Lower Billings Outlook on Accelerated
Shift Towards Virtual and Cloud Solutions—
Downgrading Our Rating to In-Line from Outperform
and Lowering Our Price Target to $12 from $25
January 11, 2016
We Expect Diamond Resorts to Continue to Report
Strong Growth in Earnings, but the Potential for
Negative Headlines Could Create Pressure on the
Share Price; We Are Maintaining our Outperform Rating
on the Shares While Lowering Our Price Target to $33
from $42 Based on a Lower Valuation Multiple
January 26, 2016
Michael Kim
(310) 246-3640
mkim@imperialcapital.com
Gregg Klein
(212) 351-9706
gklein@imperialcapital.com
Best Ideas in Equity Research, January 2016
January 7, 2016
Digimarc Corporation (DMRC: Outperform)
For more information please contact:
Edward P. Mally, CFA
(212) 351-9768
emally@imperialcapital.com
Research Brief—Newly Announced Partnership with
Perrigo Addresses “Many Birds with One Stone”;
Showcasing Growing Partner Ecosystem at National
Retail Federation Big Show January 12, 2016
Brookfield Residential Properties, Inc. (BRP)
Situation Overview: Combination of Declining Crude Oil
Prices, Depreciating CAD, and Rising Interest Rates
Create Material Negative Asymmetry Risk to the
Unsecured Notes January 14, 2016
Petr Grishchenko
(212) 351-9475
pgrishchenko@imperialcapital.com
Jeff Kessler
(212) 351-9701
jkessler@imperialcapital.com
Saliq Khan
(212) 351-9453
saliq.khan@imperialcapital.com
Environmental Services Industry
4Q15 Waste Preview—Backdrop Remains Healthy in
Solid Waste, Commodity Headwinds Continue to Blow;
CWST, RSG, and WCN Are Our Top Picks Heading Into
Earnings Season January 15, 2016
Community Health Systems, Inc. (CYH)
Initiating Coverage of the Senior Unsecured Notes with
BUY Ratings and the Senior Secured Debt with HOLD
Ratings—Community Health Systems Continues to
Face Uncertainties Related to the Planned Spin-Off of
Quorum and Low Admissions Growth, but Some
Positive Momentum Is Starting to Develop
January 12, 2016
Scott Levine
(212) 351-9455
slevine@imperialcapital.com
FireEye, Inc. (FEYE: Outperform)
Gregg Klein
(212) 351-9706
gklein@imperialcapital.com
Preliminary 4Q15 Results Consistent with Our
Estimates and Consensus; Strong Mix Shift to
Subscriptions; FireEye Acquires Threat Intelligence
Provider—Maintaining Our Outperform Rating and
Lowering Our Price Target to $25 from $32 Based on
Comparable Valuation January 22, 2016
Crossover Debt Securities Monitor, January 2016
Overview of the Crossover Debt Securities Market
January 14, 2016
Michael Kim
(310) 246-3640
mkim@imperialcapital.com
Seweryn Sztalkoper, CFA
(310) 246-3668
sstalkoper@imperialcapital.com
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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)
HC2 Holdings, Inc. (HCHC)
Maintaining SELL Ratings on $14.428bn of FCX/FM
O&G Bonds, but Raising Next-to-Mature 2.15s to BUY;
$1.1bn “Simple” FCF Deficit in 2016, 6.1x Net Leverage
and a Downgrade to “Junk” Inevitable; How it Renders
Oil & Gas Self-Funding May Be the Single Most
Important Topic; FCX Should Launch Liability
Management Exercise to Exchange Debt at a Discount
January 13, 2016
Situation Overview January 25, 2016
Kurt M. Hoffman
(561) 214-7914
khoffman@imperialcapital.com
Taylor K. Hawkins
(561) 214-7913
thawkins@imperialcapital.com
Kevin Cohen, CFA
(212) 351-9774
kcohen@imperialcapital.com
iHeart Communications, Inc. (IHRT)
Situation Overview: ~$20.8bn Term Loan/Bond Debt in
a Mid-2008 Vintage LBO; Balance Sheet Strained but
Company Has Options for Generating Liquidity and
Extending Financial Runway; Company May Struggle to
Address $730mn 10s of ’18; iHeart Term Loans and
PGNs (~$12.6bn) Look Somewhat Attractive but No
Near-Term Catalyst to Force a Reorganization
January 7, 2016
Petr Grishchenko
(212) 351-9475
pgrishchenko@imperialcapital.com
Gastar Exploration, Inc. (GST: Outperform)
Amendment to Allow Debt Exchange Could Provide
Relief Concerning 5/2018 Maturity—Maintaining Our
Outperform Rating and $2 Price Target January 8, 2016
Kevin Cohen, CFA
(212) 351-9774
kcohen@imperialcapital.com
Kim Pacanovsky, Ph.D.
(212) 351-9703
kpacanovsky@imperialcapital.com
Petr Grishchenko
(212) 351-9475
pgrishchenko@imperialcapital.com
Christopher J. Shook
(212) 351-9454
cshook@imperialcapital.com
New LightSquared LLC (NEWLSQ L Corp)
Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDPM)
Terminating Equity Coverage Due to Commencement of
NYSE Delisting Procedures; Withdrawing Our Equity
Rating and Price Target January 14, 2016
January 4, 2016
Kurt M. Hoffman
(561) 214-7914
khoffman@imperialcapital.com
MobileIron, Inc. (MOBL: Outperform)
Kim Pacanovsky, Ph.D.
(212) 351-9703
kpacanovsky@imperialcapital.com
Announces Appointment of New CEO and Preliminary
4Q15 Results Above Our Estimates and Consensus;
Raising Our FY16 Estimates—Maintaining Our
Outperform Rating and Price Target of $6
January 7, 2016
Christopher J. Shook
(212) 351-9454
cshook@imperialcapital.com
Guidance Software, Inc. (GUID: In-Line)
Research Brief—Announces Executive Changes and
Organizational Restructuring; We Expect Continued
Progress on Turnaround Efforts Despite Potential NearTerm Disruption—We Have an In-Line Rating and Price
Target of $6 January 15, 2016
Michael Kim
(310) 246-3640
mkim@imperialcapital.com
Michael Kim
(310) 246-3640
mkim@imperialcapital.com
Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority (TRIBAL)
Company Update—New Competition Is on the Horizon,
but Operating Results Continue to Improve and
Leverage Continues to Decline; Raising Our Rating on
the 9.75% Senior Unsecured Notes to BUY from Hold at
Recent Pricing, Maintaining Our BUY Ratings on the
Term Loans, and Our HOLD Rating on the 11% Senior
Subordinated Notes January 21, 2016
Gregg Klein
(212) 351-9706
gklein@imperialcapital.com
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Monitronics International, Inc. (ASCMA)
Payday Lending Industry
Initiating Coverage of the Monitronics 9.125% Senior
Notes with a BUY Rating and the Ascent Capital Senior
Convertible Notes with an Outperform Rating.
Residential Alarm Monitoring and Home Automation
Company Has Room to Improve Attrition Rates and
Subscriber Acquisition Multiples; Available Liquidity
and Cash Flows Support the Business Through 2016
January 12, 2016
Edward P. Mally, CFA
(212) 351-9768
emally@imperialcapital.com
Jeff Kessler
(212) 351-9701
jkessler@imperialcapital.com
Payday Lending in a Nutshell: A Quick Refresh on a
Challenged Space January 12, 2016
Kurt M. Hoffman
(561) 214-7914
khoffman@imperialcapital.com
Saliq Khan
(212) 351-9453
saliq.khan@imperialcapital.com
Kim Pacanovsky, Ph.D.
(212) 351-9703
kpacanovsky@imperialcapital.com
Newfield Exploration Co. (NFX: Outperform)
Christopher J. Shook
(212) 351-9454
cshook@imperialcapital.com
Taylor K. Hawkins
(561) 214-7913
thawkins@imperialcapital.com
Penn Virginia Corp. (PVAH)
Terminating Equity Coverage Due to Commencement of
NYSE Delisting Procedures; Withdrawing Our Equity
Rating and Price Target January 13, 2016
Initiating Coverage with an Outperform Rating and a
Price Target of $27: Newfield Is a Leader in Oklahoma’s
STACK and SCOOP Plays; Balance Sheet Is Well
Positioned for the Downturn January 21, 2016
PetroQuest Energy, Inc. (PQ)
Terminating Equity Coverage Due to Possible Delisting,
Low Market Cap, and 2017 Debt Maturity; Withdrawing
Our Equity Rating and Price Target January 22, 2016
Kim Pacanovsky, Ph.D.
(212) 351-9703
kpacanovsky@imperialcapital.com
Kim Pacanovsky, Ph.D.
(212) 351-9703
kpacanovsky@imperialcapital.com
Christopher J. Shook
(212) 351-9454
cshook@imperialcapital.com
Christopher J. Shook
(212) 351-9454
cshook@imperialcapital.com
NICE Systems, Ltd. (NICE: Outperform)
Revising Our Estimates to Reflect Recent Transactions
and Updated Guidance; Maintaining Our Outperform
Rating and $74 Price Target January 19, 2016
Jeff Kessler
(212) 351-9701
jkessler@imperialcapital.com
Progressive Waste Solutions, Inc. (BIN: In-Line)
Assessing Possible Outcomes of the Strategic
Review—Lowering Our Estimates, Lowering Our Rating
to In-Line from Outperform, and Maintaining Our $27.50
Price Target January 12, 2016
Saliq Khan
(212) 351-9453
saliq.khan@imperialcapital.com
Scott Levine
(212) 351-9455
slevine@imperialcapital.com
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR: Outperform)
Qualys, Inc. (QLYS: Outperform)
Initiating Coverage with an Outperform Rating and a
$30 Price Target—Profitable Hawaiian Energy Platform
with Optionality to Accretive M&A and/or a Recovery in
Natural Gas Prices January 28, 2016
Research Brief—Company Announces Resignation of
CFO; Preliminary 4Q15 Results Consistent with
Previous Guidance—We Have an Outperform Rating
and Price Target of $49 January 28, 2016
Scott Levine
(212) 351-9455
slevine@imperialcapital.com
Michael Kim
(310) 246-3640
mkim@imperialcapital.com
Page 4
Quanex Building Products Corporation
(NX: Outperform)
SFX Entertainment, Inc. (SFXE)
Updating Our Segment Modeling Assumptions to
Reflect Recent Acquisitions—Maintaining Our
Outperform Rating and Raising Our Price Target to $25
from $23 January 5, 2016
Situation Overview—Liquidity Remains Tight with a
$14mn Coupon Payment on the 9.625% Notes Due on
2/1/16; We Believe SFX Could Be Headed for a Debt
Restructuring with a Potential Mid-Case Bondholder
Recovery of 31% of Par January 29, 2016
Scott Levine
(212) 351-9455
slevine@imperialcapital.com
Gregg Klein
(212) 351-9706
gklein@imperialcapital.com
Reorganized and Unlisted Equities Monitor,
January 2016
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK: In-Line)
4Q15 Results—Currency and Slower Economies Impact
Quarterly Results; Proactive Cost Efficiencies Help
Improve Margins; Management Sees Further Currency
Headwinds During FY16. Maintaining Our In-Line Rating
and Reducing Our Price Target to $103 from $110
January 29, 2016
Jeff Kessler
(212) 351-9701
jkessler@imperialcapital.com
Identifying Value in the Unlisted Equities of Recently
Restructured and Private Companies January 27, 2016
Taylor K. Hawkins
(561) 214-7913
thawkins@imperialcapital.com
Edward P. Mally, CFA
(212) 351-9768
emally@imperialcapital.com
Saliq Khan
(212) 351-9453
saliq.khan@imperialcapital.com
Kurt M. Hoffman
(561) 214-7914
khoffman@imperialcapital.com
Stone Energy Corp. (SGY: Outperform)
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG: Outperform)
Improved Liquidity Profile with Reduced Initial 2016
Capex Budget of $200mn Focused on Gulf of Mexico—
Lowering Our Estimates; Maintaining Our Outperform
Rating and Lowering Our Price Target to $6 from $8
January 6, 2016
Research Brief—Corporate Restructuring and Call
Center Realignment Offer Some Upside
January 22, 2016
Scott Levine
(212) 351-9455
slevine@imperialcapital.com
Kim Pacanovsky, Ph.D.
(212) 351-9703
kpacanovsky@imperialcapital.com
Security Industry Update
Christopher J. Shook
(212) 351-9454
cshook@imperialcapital.com
Highlights from CES 2016 Press Events in Las Vegas;
Secure and Connected Premises Solutions Shaping Up
to Be a Key Theme Once Again; Alarm Monitoring
Industry to Leverage Technology and Form Strategic
Partnerships to Realize Continued Growth in 2016
January 6, 2016
Highlights from CES 2016 in Las Vegas; Security and
Home Automation Solutions a Key Theme; Companies
Showcased More Focused and Interconnected DIY
Solutions January 14, 2016
Highlights from National Retail Federation’s “Retail’s
BIG Show” 2016; Data-Driven and Customer Focused
Retail Strategies Could Prove Positive for Security
Companies, Particularly Checkpoint Systems, Diebold,
Digimarc, Tyco, VeriFone Systems and Zebra Tech
January 21, 2016
Synergy Resources Corp. (SYRG: Outperform)
1Q16 Results: Well Positioned to Manage Continued
Downturn in Commodity Prices, Though Quarter
Reflected Cost of Fast Pace of Corporate Growth and
Production Issues—Maintaining Our Outperform Rating
and Lowering Our Price Target to $8 from $14
January 12, 2016
Kim Pacanovsky, Ph.D.
(212) 351-9703
kpacanovsky@imperialcapital.com
Christopher J. Shook
(212) 351-9454
cshook@imperialcapital.com
Jeff Kessler
(212) 351-9701
jkessler@imperialcapital.com
Saliq Khan
(212) 351-9453
saliq.khan@imperialcapital.com
Page 5
United Rentals, Inc. (URI)
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN: Outperform)
Situation Overview: Strong Credit Profile with Net Total
Leverage 3.0x and 23% “Simple” FCF Relative to Total
Debt; Potential Macro Slowdown, Rising Price Pressure
and Tight Spread Between Secured/Unsecured 23s
Could Be a Trading Opportunity for Patient Investors
January 26, 2016
Research Brief—Waste Connections Announces an AllStock Merger with Progressive Waste Solutions; Terms
Appear Attractive at First Blush January 20, 2016
Kevin Cohen, CFA
(212) 351-9774
kcohen@imperialcapital.com
Scott Levine
(212) 351-9455
slevine@imperialcapital.com
Zix Corporation (ZIXI: Outperform)
Research Brief—Company Announces Appointment of
New CEO Following Planned Transition—We Have an
Outperform Rating and Price Target of $6
January 19, 2016
Petr Grishchenko
(212) 351-9475
pgrishchenko@imperialcapital.com
Vale S.A. (VALE)
Maintaining Our SELL Ratings on ~$15.1bn of Bonds:
Gaping 2016E “Simple” FCF Deficit ($4.7bn);
Downgrade to Below Investment Grade Seems
Inevitable; Emerging Liquidity Strain in 2016 and
Material Drawdown on $5bn Revolving Credit May Be
Needed; Net Leverage ~9x in 2016E; Vale Should Issue
$1bn+ of Equity and/or a Liability Management Exercise
to Reduce Debt January 5, 2016
Michael Kim
(310) 246-3640
mkim@imperialcapital.com
Kevin Cohen, CFA
(212) 351-9774
kcohen@imperialcapital.com
Petr Grishchenko
(212) 351-9475
pgrishchenko@imperialcapital.com
This publication lists companies on which we have previously published research reports, notes and briefs. These published research reports,
notes or briefs may be obtained from our Web site (www.imperialcapital.com) or your account executive. No investment decision should be made
in issuers with published research reports without first reviewing those related research reports.
This summary is for informational purposes only and is not limited to companies on which we have published or may publish research now or
in the future. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, bank debt
or trade claim. While the information contained in this summary is believed to be current as of the date hereof, we do not represent or
guarantee that the summary is current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.
We reserve the right to add or drop coverage of a company or industry, or change the analyst covering any particular company or industry at
our sole discretion. Decisions to publish or terminate coverage are based on a variety of factors. As a result, coverage of such issues
frequently may be characterized either by’ isolated reports, long periods between reports, or no reports at all. Imperial Capital’s and Imperial
Capital Asset Management’s views of a security, issuer, industry or sector may change without the issuance of a new report. If you would like
to know whether Imperial Capital’s or Imperial Capital Asset Management’s views have changed, please call us at (310) 246-3700. Please
contact your Imperial Capital account representative for copies of any available research reports, or visit www.imperialcapital.com.
Imperial Capital, LLC is a member of FINRA (www.finra.org) and SIPC (www.sipc.org)
© Copyright 2016 Imperial Capital, LLC and Imperial Capital Asset Management, LLC.
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