Monte Carlo Simulation
by
Dr Walter López Moreno
Completing project on a specific day
DATE (days)
PROBABILITY
ACCUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY
RANGE
Optimistic (O)
0.30
0.30
01 – 30
Most Likely (M)
0.45
0.75
31 - 75
Pessimistic (P)
0.25
1.00
76 - 00
Completing project for any specific amount of cost
COST ($)
Earned Value Analysis
BAC – Budget at Completion (how
PROBABILITY
0.40
much did you budget for the total job)
EAC – Estimate at Completion
0.20
(what do we expect the total project to cost)
BAC - 5%
ETC – Estimate to Completion
(how much more do we expect to spend to finish
the job) BAC + 5%
VAC – Variance at Completion
(how much over/under budget do we expect to be)
BAC +/- 10% (select + or -)
0.10
ACCUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY
RANGE
Overall project risk
RISK (type)
1
2
3
PROBABILITY
ACCUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY
RANGE
RESULTS
Simulation
Number
Completing
project on a
specific day
Random #
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
DATE (days)
Completing
project for any
specific amount
of cost
Random #
COST ($)
Overall project
risk
Random #
RISK (type)