Preface
************
In just over three years, I have seen the APEC Center for Technology Foresight
come a long way, to be recognized and respected as a foresight institution in Thailand,
APEC and the world. I must say that it was not an easy task for the Center to have
achieved so much in so little time with so few resources. The credit must be given to
the leadership of its Directors and the dedication of its staff, as well as to members of
the International Advisory Board and the Steering Committee. The National Science
and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA) is privileged to host the Center and we
are willing to provide whatever support is necessary to facilitate its work.
The APEC Center for Technology Foresight was conceived as a virtual center
with a small core staff supported by Thailand through NSTDA. Activities are to be selffunded through in-kind contributions from member economies. The generous support
of the APEC Central Fund has also made it possible to conduct a number of APECwide foresight studies.
While many of the activities have been held in Bangkok, the concept of a virtual
Center has gained strength with two Experts Meetings being held outside Thailand –
Technology for Learning and Culture in Vancouver, Canada, and Sustainable
Transport in Melbourne, Australia. The Center was also honored to co-organize the
International Conference on Technology Foresight in Japan. The success of the Center
is measured by the international support it can gather. Its work can only continue with
the strong support of the APEC economies.
Even after just two years, the work of the Center has already yielded valuable
outcomes, as you will see from this report. The multi-economy foresight projects have
generated great interest, several economies have requested the Center’s assistance
with foresight activities, and an increasing number of organisations in member
economies are planning to undertake foresight projects of their own, with the Center’s
advice and support.
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Annual Report 2000
I look forward to seeing the Center play a key role in enhancing cooperation
among APEC economies on foresight for a better future for APEC, and pledge to give it
my full support.
Professor Pairash Thajchayapong
Chairman of the Steering Committee, APEC Center for Technology Foresight, and
President of the National Science and Technology Development Agency, Thailand
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
1. Introduction
******************
Establishment
The APEC Center for Technology Foresight was launched in February 1998, with the generous
support of the Thai government. The office is in Bangkok, Thailand but it operates as a virtual
Center, serving and involving all APEC member economies.
The Center is hosted by the
National Science and Technology Development Agency of Thailand (NSTDA) It is also
supported by the Industrial Science and Technology Working Group of APEC, and received
partial funding from APEC for its establishment and for multi-economy foresight projects.
Why Foresight?
Technology Foresight is a tool for strategic planning in the medium and longer-term (between
about 5-25 years). The essence of foresight is that it engages a wide range of people, from
different backgrounds and perspectives, in a process of imagining different possible futures and
then looking back to see the steps that brought them there. Thus it is quite different to other
planning techniques based on extrapolation from the current situation, which is often inadequate
for dealing with rapid change and complex problems. Foresight is used for:
-
developing creative, long-term visions;
-
anticipating and managing change;
-
identifying when and where opportunities and threats might emerge; and then,
-
choosing how to respond
There are a variety of different methodologies used in foresight projects, sometimes alone and
sometimes in combination, depending on the needs of the project and the cultural and
organisational setting. The Center has developed particular expertise in Scenario-Planning and
Delphi surveys.
Scenario-Planning
Scenarios are images or stories, used to explore alternative futures. They are systematically
constructed, in a highly interactive and imaginative process. Unlike traditional planning
methods, scenario planning requires decision-makers to question their broadest
assumptions about how the world works, in order to identify threats and opportunities that
might otherwise be overlooked. Scenario planning involves careful assessment of current
trends and identification of critical uncertainties – changes that could have a dramatic impact
if they occurred. This combination of rigorous analysis with creativity and intuition
encourages organisations to learn and adapt in a world that is rapidly changing. The goal of
scenario-planning is not really a more accurate picture of the tomorrow, but rather - better
decisions about the future.
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Annual Report 2000
Delphi
Delphi surveys are a method of consulting experts, in order to assess both consensus and
disagreement of expert opinion. They have been widely used for technological forecasting
but are actually useful for any questions requiring an assessment of both scientific evidence
and social values. Delphi procedure is designed to minimise the “process loss” that occurs
when groups get together to make and express group decisions (e.g. the tendency towards
conformity, as it can be difficult to express an extreme opinion or contradict someone in
authority), without losing the benefits of group processes (e.g. a broader base of
information). The key features are therefore: anonymity (only the organisers know who
provides each response), reiteration (several rounds of the survey), and controlled feedback
(between rounds, results are collated by the organisers and presented back to the
participants, often in a simple statistical format).
Summary of Activities in 2000
2000, the third year of the Center’s operations, was a year of consolidation and assessment.
The Center completed its initial research program with a fourth multi-economy foresight study of
“Healthy Futures for APEC Megacities”, and the publication of the studies largely carried out the
previous year on “Sustainable Transport for APEC Megacities” and “Technology for Learning
and Culture”. With its reputation growing, the Center was invited to assist with foresight efforts
in Malaysia, Mexico and Vietnam, and was able to initiate and support several projects within
Thailand.
An international conference on technology foresighting was held in Japan by the
National Institute for Science and Technology Policy and co-hosted by the Center.
Public
seminars in Thailand were increasingly well attended. As an essential part of the process of
reviewing the Center’s achievements and progress, an External Review was carried out by
distinguished experts from China and New Zealand. Finally, towards the end of the year, a
special workshop was held for the Center’s Steering Committee and International Advisory
Board - to foresight the future of the Center itself.
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Looking to the new Millenium
Reviewing the progress of the Center, and developments in its operational context, the scope
and purpose of the Center were revised at the end of 2000.

Core Objective of the APEC Center for Technology Foresight:
To develop and diffuse foresight capability across APEC through multieconomy studies, training, consultancy and related activities.

Definition
Foresight involves systematic attempts to look into the future of science,
technology, society and the economy, and their interactions, in order to
promote social, economic and environmental benefit.

Core Competencies of the APEC CTF
1) capability to coordinate and facilitate multi-economy foresight studies (with
embedded training);
2) expertise in training and consultancy services;
3) expertise in foresight methodologies and practice;
underpinned by:
4) ability to work effectively across a range of cultures and types of organisation;
5) ability to understand and communicate basic science and technology and its
implications for socio-economic development.

Scale of operation
The APEC Center for Technology Foresight is both a national and an
international Center. From a solid base in its host economy – Thailand - the
Center aims to serve and involve all the members of APEC.
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Annual Report 2000
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
2. Multi-Economy Foresight Projects
**********************************************
Firstly, note that APEC has member economies, rather than countries. In 2000, there were 21
members: Australia; Brunei; Canada; Chile; China; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; Japan; South
Korea; Malaysia; Mexico; New Zealand; Papua New Guinea; Peru; the Philippines; Russia;
Singapore; Chinese Taipei; Thailand; the USA, and Vietnam. Despite the financial instability of
1997-98, the Asia-Pacific remains one of the fastest growing regions in the world. By 2000,
APEC member economies accounted for 55% of total world income and 46% of global trade.
In 1998, the Center undertook a multi-economy foresight study on “Water Supply and
Management in the APEC region“ with partial funding of USD 50,000 from APEC. In 1999-2000,
3 further foresight projects on “Technology for Learning and Culture”, “Sustainable Transport for
APEC Megacities” and “Healthy Futures for APEC Megacities” were completed.
The Annual
Report 1999 included detailed information on ‘Technology for Learning and Culture’ and
‘Sustainable Transport’. ‘Healthy Futures for APEC Megacities’, which was largely carried out
over 2000 is described more fully in section 2.2 of this Annual Report 2000.
The research studies of 1999-2000 were partially funded with a generous APEC grant of
US$150,000, with the endorsement of the Industrial Science and Technology Working Group.
Thanks to the impressive levels of support from APEC members, with almost all participants
covering their own expenses and donating their time, this fund was actually underspent when
the projects were completed. Project staff, some meeting costs and other such expenses were
covered from the Center’s own budget, which is generously provided by the Thai government.
All three projects were carried out in partnership with key institutions around APEC, and with the
active involvement of many APEC members.
Project
Partner(s)
No. of
Participating
Economies
Technology for
Learning and Culture
National Research Council
of CANADA
14
Vancouver,
Canada
May 1999
Issues Paper; Scenario
workshop; Delphi survey
Sustainable
Transport for APEC
Megacities
Center for Strategic and
Economic Studies, Victoria
University of Technology,
AUSTRALIA
7
Melbourne,
Australia
July 1999
Issues
Paper;
Scenario
workshop;
consultations;
literature review
Healthy Futures for
APEC Megacities
National
Center
for
Environmental
Health,
CDC, USA;
and the
Kenan Institute of Private
Enterprise, University of
North Carolina at Chapel
Hill, USA
11
Bangkok,
Thailand
Discussion
Paper
and
Consultation;
Scenarioworkshop
(scenariodevelopment);
literature
review; Scenario workshop
(refinement and analysis)
Experts
Meeting
February
2000,
and
May 2000
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Outline of Methods
used
Annual Report 2000
Foresight Project outputs

Technology for Learning and Culture in the APEC Region to 2010
Vol 1: Summary Report (March 2000) Vol 2: The Supporting Material (2000)

Sustainable Transport for APEC Megacities: Issues and Solutions
Vol 1: Summary Report (February 2000) Vol 2: Full Report (February 2000)

Healthy Futures for APEC Megacities
Vol 1: Summary Report (September 2000)
Vol 2: Summary Record of a Foresight Project (November 2000)

The Future of APEC Megacities: A Foresight Approach: Review of Studies by the
APEC Center for Technology Foresight 1998-2000 (December 2000)
The Center encouraged suitable organizations in its host economy to follow up these projects
with local initiatives, in order to gain maximum value from the work. Thus two Thai projects
began in late 2000, on ‘Information Technology for Education’ and ‘Healthy Futures for
Thai Cities’, with the Center providing consultancy and helping to facilitate scenario-workshops.
Both of these projects are led by the experts who had participated in the multi-economy studies.
The Center also encouraged similar initiatives in other APEC member economies, but these
may take more time to be established.
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
2.1 Executive Summary
“Technologies for Learning and Culture”
A multi-economy foresight project
Technology is systematically transforming the basis of education and culture, while at the same
time, rendering them even more crucial to the economic and social futures of nations. The
capabilities of information and communication technology, in an era marked by globalisation
and the emergence of the knowledge economy, and the reach and access of the Internet,
require a fundamental re-examination of the roles and effectiveness of existing institutions and
systems to support learning and culture.
While there is great pressure towards internationalisation, learning and culture remain at the
heart of the economic and social fabric of each nation. Therefore each nation must arrive at
solutions which are appropriate to its own historical and cultural antecedents, and to its
preferred future. At the same time, there is much to be gained by learning from and cooperating
with other countries in developing the most appropriate responses to these challenges.
The major issues in using technology to support learning and culture identified in this project
are:

democratisation of access through flexible, universal service infrastructures linked
with a commitment to equity in access;

the need for continuing study of the impact of the information highway on
economic activity, trade, the workplace, the community and society at large;

ensuring cultural enrichment for all citizens through strong commitment to
diversity of cultural and linguistic content;

encouraging the private sector to develop information networks and offer new
information services, thereby encouraging international cooperation in developing a
global information infrastructure;

the need to improve, and exchange experience of, new developments in learning,
training and skill upgrading, both in the school and higher education systems and
through adult learning distance programs;

the need to improve the understanding of social change, through initiatives that
demonstrate the possibility of improving and increasing the flexibility of working
conditions, opportunities for leisure-time education, urban life-styles, and the greater
participation of disadvantaged in society.
The foresight approach, using both scenario planning and a Delphi survey, identified a range of
important issues that need to be taken into account.
Perhaps the principal one of these was the vulnerabilities inherent in converting learning and
culture systems so that they become entirely dependent on electronic communication.
Appropriate risk management strategies are needed to preclude, or at least protect against,
catastrophic failure and/or loss of traditional knowledge and skills.
This also led to an emphasis on:

the need for systematic capture and preservation of codified knowledge;

increased understanding and valuing of tacit knowledge and those individuals and
institutions that are important repositories;

the development of international protocols and standards to protect and facilitate
learning and transmission of culture;

increased recognition of the central role of learning, and of the professions that
are directly responsible for, or involved in facilitating, learning;

the need for learning to be redefined in common culture as an essential life-long
process;
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Annual Report 2000

the need for substantial investment in continuous retraining of all those involved in
assisting learning, whether formally as ‘teachers’ or informally through their community
roles and expertise.
“Sustainable Transport for APEC Megacities”
A multi-economy foresight project
The final report describes a multi-country Foresight study, on the subject of Sustainable Transport,
conducted by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight located within the National Science and
Technology Development Agency in Bangkok, Thailand. A process of literature review, issue
identification, scenario development and analysis involved experts in sustainable transport from seven
APEC member economies.
Sixteen key issues were identified for the future of sustainable transport to 2020:

Impact of post-industrial economy-change in characteristics of employment and
leisure

Impact of e-commerce and other ‘non-transport’ technologies

Impact of environmental and energy supply considerations-greenhouse gas targets

Balance between public and private transport

Degree of continued reliance on motor vehicle

Management of traffic demand

Transparency and awareness of full cost of options

Development of intelligent transport systems

Funding (including subsidies) to transport

Interaction between land use and transport planning

Heterogeneity-different solutions for different countries

Transport infrastructure provision

Institutional reform

Changes in professional praxis of transport planning

New transport technologies

Human and community dimensions-equity, social and environmental costs, safety
concerns
Scenarios identified three different futures in which environmental concerns dominated, in which a world
recession and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions triggered a social change, and in which worldwide
computer problems and oil crisis forced a simpler lifestyle.
The study has highlighted policy issues as the more significant, with technologies seen to be the means to
achieving desirable outcomes. Thus the three major areas identified for attention by governments at all
levels are:

reprioritisation of transport infrastructure towards public transport;

land use planning linked to transport planning to move away from low density
sprawl;

development of alternative growth centers to relieve growth in existing cities.
Technological opportunities likely to play the biggest role in supporting these policy thrusts are:

development of electric and hybrid vehicles

intelligent vehicle-highway systems

new types of transit vehicles

alternative urban freight distribution systems

transport logistics
Finally, there is clearly a need for a new paradigm in the approach to the private motor vehicle and its role
in urban transport. This paradigm will be based on a recognition by society that urban transport by private
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
vehicles produces enormous social and economic disbenefits and that a mindset change to travel is
needed.
“Healthy Futures for APEC Megacities”
A multi-economy foresight project
The final report describes a multi-economy Foresight study on the subject of Healthy Futures for
APEC Megacities. It was conducted by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, located
within the National Science and Technology Development Agency of Thailand in Bangkok, and
in partnership with the National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, Atlanta, USA, and the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise, University of North
Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA. The Foresight process included consultation, the development of
a discussion paper, identification of the key drivers and uncertainties, followed by scenario
development and analysis. It involved around 50 experts from a wide range of disciplines linked
to megacities from 10 member economies, with additional inputs from experts from the World
Health Organization Healthy Cities Program, and from the UN Urban Management Program.
Fifteen key issues have been identified for the healthy futures of APEC megacities:
1. Population dynamics
6. Planning
11. Livelihood Opportunities
2. Resources
7. City Structure
12. Heritage
3. Governance
8. Waste Management
13. Safety
4. Infrastructure
9. Social Connectedness
14. Living Environment
5. Mobility
10. Participation of individuals and 15. Health care delivery and
communities
health promotion
These form the components of an ecosystem model for healthy megacities based around
resource inputs, dynamics of megacities and quality of life.
This study has firmly placed people at the center of the debate on the future for APEC
megacities. Thus we concluded that:
 With more and more of the world’s population going to live in megacities, the goal of
healthy megacities is both realistic and essential;
 Healthy megacities depend on collective action of communities of people with a
common goal;
 People cannot have a good quality of life in an unhealthy city; equally, a city cannot
be healthy if its citizens are not;
 Foresight is an effective mechanism for grasping and tackling the complexity of
planning for the future megacities;
 Priority areas for research and for policy development can be identified;
 APEC already contains a wealth of experience which can be drawn on, to work
towards healthy megacities for the 21st century;
The study highlighted the necessity to consider the linkages between policies and actions in
different aspects of megacities. A systemic approach is required, to ensure that resources (both
physical and human) are used most effectively. New technologies offer many opportunities to
ensure healthy futures for megacities, notably in the application of information and
communication technologies (ICT) for governance, education, economic development, social
interaction, communication and health care, in new transport technologies and in new
environmental technologies for cleaner production and treatment of waste.
Finally, there is growing awareness of the challenges posed by rapid urbanization, particularly in
the less developed economies of APEC, and the necessity to address these in a holistic manner
to ensure that the growing number of large cities and megacities in the region all have healthy
futures in the decades to come. The Sustainable Cities initiative of APEC, taken at the Manila
Ministerial meeting in 1996, offers the opportunity to provide leadership in cooperation between
APEC economies. This could include exchange of experience in governance, development of
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Annual Report 2000
databases, joint R&D programs in areas such as public health, transport, water supply and
management, technologies for learning and culture, environmental protection and clean
production, and encouragement of more effective public-private partnerships.
The choices that we make now can profoundly influence the health of megacities in
APEC in the next decades and the quality of life for the citizens of those cities.
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
2.2 Project description
For project descriptions of “Technology for Learning and Culture” and “Sustainable
Transport”, see Annual Report 1999.
“Healthy Futures for APEC Megacities”
A multi-economy foresight project
Background:
Megacities are major urban areas that, by sheer size and potential, are centers of economic and
political life and significant shapers of a nation’s culture and economy. Many such megacities in
APEC have mega-problems, developing in ways that raise critical issues of health, well-being
and sustainability. The World Health Organization (WHO) recognizes, in its program on “Healthy
Cities”, that a healthy city requires balance in and among the “physical, emotional, mental, and
spiritual” aspects of life. Achieving this balance is a systemic issue, and especially complex at
megacity level, requiring all relevant sectors to work together towards common goals.
To
tackle this complex subject, this project used the foresight methodology of scenario-planning.
Objective:
To explore issues that are critical to the future of megacities in APEC, and identify policy
approaches and positive interventions towards their healthy development.
Key Stages:
Event/ Activity
1
Discussion paper
October 1999
2
3
4
5
Remarks
To set a framework for the study and
stimulate discussion
Exchange of ideas and information
with experts from APEC and from
relevant global organizations
November 1999 – January 2000
Core Experts’ Meeting
Bangkok, Thailand, 2-3 February
2000
Preparation for Experts’ Meeting
February-May 2000
APEC-wide Experts Meeting
Bangkok, Thailand 29-31 May 2000
6
Report Finalization
June – September 2000
7
Promotion of Project Outcomes
throughout APEC
To finalize the project goals and
procedures, and identify appropriate
participants. A Thai reference group was
especially helpful at this stage.
Exchange of ideas and information, to
elaborate on concepts and work towards
the creation of alternative scenarios of
megacities in the year 2020
Refining scenarios, finalizing an Issues
Paper and involving further experts.
To discuss issues, and work with scenarios
to draw out policy implications, and identify
future actions.
To be prepared by the APEC Center for
Technology Foresight, in consultation with
project partners and other experts
Follow-up meetings in member economies
wherever possible
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Annual Report 2000
Core Experts’ Meeting: 2-3 February 2000
Purpose:
Elaboration of concepts, identification of issues, preliminary
development of scenarios, identification of further participants
for the wider Experts’ Meeting
No. of participants:
13 (organizers and invited experts from Australia, Thailand,
USA and World Health Organisation Collaborating Center for
Research on Healthy Cities)
Outcome:
3 draft scenarios developed and key issues identified
APEC-wide Experts Meeting: 29 – 31 May 2000
Purpose:
Discussion of issues, and working with scenarios to draw out
implications for policy, strategy and the need for further research
across APEC.
Participants Preparatory Work:
To propose 3 issues critical to the development of
megacities over the next 20 years, and to consider the
Discussion Paper.
No. of participants:
52
Facilitator:
Professor
Australian
Ron
Johnston,
Centre
for
Executive
Innovation
Director
and
of
the
International
Competitiveness, University of Sydney, Australia.
The APEC-Wide Experts Meeting was held at the Siam Intercontinental Hotel, Bangkok. This
attracted 46 experts from 10 different APEC member economies, with especially strong
representation from Thailand (29 experts) and the U.S.A (5 experts). Other participants were
drawn from the following APEC member economies: Australia; China; Indonesia; Japan;
Malaysia; Peru; Chinese Taipei and Vietnam, with additional representation from the World
Health Organization Collaborating Center for Research on Healthy Cities, and from the AsiaPacific office of the UNDP/UNHS Urban Management Project.
The Experts represented a wide range of professional disciplines relevant to megacities, from
transport to tourism, public health to pollution control. They brought with them 3 issues which,
in their view, would have a major impact on the future of megacities over the next 20 years.
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
There were essentially four core components of the meeting:
Firstly: Plenary discussion of issues relevant to healthier futures for APEC megacities,
focussed around the Discussion Paper and the participants’ 3 issues;
Secondly: Scenario-familiarisation, and scenario-refinement;
Thirdly: Strategy and policy under each scenario, and for an imagined megacity;
Finally: Priorities for Healthy Megacities – discussion on topics prioritised by the
participants, in the light of previous sessions. These were: Health Care and Demographics;
Resource Inputs; Intelligent Cities and Mobility; Pollution and Degradation; and, Governance.
Final Report
The final report, prepared by Prof Greg Tegart and Tamsin Jewell, was drawn from the
Discussion Paper, the information provided by experts attending the Experts Meetings, the
outputs of those meetings, and additional research by the authors. The report is aimed at policy
makers and their advisors. It sets out the essential steps in the process of the study, outlines
the key issues for the development of healthy megacities and the policy implications.
Project Partners
 CDC
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), located in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, is an
agency of the Department of Health and Human Services. CDC’s mission is to promote health
and quality of life by preventing and controlling disease, injury, and disability.
CDC aims to
base all public health decisions on the highest quality scientific data, openly and objectively
derived and to place the benefits to society above the benefits to the institution.
Contact:
Dr Melinda Moore
Email: mym5@cdc.gov
Associate Director for Global Health [and Acting Director, Div. Of Emergency and Environmental
Health Services], National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC), 4770 Buford Highway N.E., MS F-29, Atlanta GA USA 30341 Tel: 770488-7231 Fax: 770-488-7742 URL: http://www.cdc.gov/
Dr Moore has since moved posts and can now be contacted at: Deputy Director, Office of
International and Refugee Health, Department of HHS, Room 18-105 Parklawn Building, 5600
Fishers Lane, Rockville, MD 20857 USA Phone: 301 443 1774 Fax: 301 443 6288 Email:
mmoore@osophs.dhhs.gov
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Annual Report 2000
 The Kenan Institute
The Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise, an affiliate of the Kenan-Flagler
Business School, encourages cooperation among business, academia and government to foster
private-sector development and to utilize the private sector to serve the public interest in the
United States and worldwide. The Kenan Institute develops innovative public-private and
private-private partnerships that build the capacity of people, business and communities to
prosper in market-based environments. These programs are anchored in research that provides
the basis for replicating and extending these outreach programs nationally and internationally.
Contact:
Dr John D. Kasarda
Email: john_kasarda@unc.edu
Director and Kenan Professor Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise, Kenan-Flagler Business
School, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3440, USA Tel: 919-962-8201
Fax: 919-962-8202 URL: http://www.bschool.unc.edu/infocenters/kenan_institute.html
 Consultant:
Professor Ron Johnston, a member of the Center’s International Advisory Board, is one of
Australia's leading analysts of change. Over the past fifteen years he has mapped and
publicized the forces of change emerging from new technologies, changing patterns of
international competitiveness and trade, new organizational structures, and shifts in social
values. Prof Johnston led the major Australian national foresight study on ‘Matching S&T to
Future Needs’, and has conducted other foresight projects on issues as diverse as research
planning for Antarctica, design of new urban environments and the future of higher education.
Internationally, he has been employed by or, carried out major contracts for UNESCO, UNIDO,
UNDP, the World Bank, OECD, the EC, ASEAN and for over 15 national governments. Prof
Johnston has extensive experience and expertise in scenario-planning.
Contact:
Prof Ron Johnston Email: rj@aciic.eng.usyd.edu.au
Executive Director, Australian Centre for Innovation & International Competitiveness Ltd
(ACIIC), Faculty of Engineering, University of Sydney NSW 2006 Tel: (02) 9351 3934 Fax:
(02) 9351 3974 URL: http://www.aciic.org.au
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
3. Post-Foresight
***********************
The Center took two opportunities to promote the project outcomes throughout the region.

Prof Tegart presented the Megacities projects at the 17th Annual Congress of EAROPH –
the Eastern Regional Organisation for Planning and Housing - in Korea, October 11-13,
2000.

Dr Chatri Sripaipan participated in the final round-table discussions at a conference on
‘Sustainable Cities’ in Bangkok, October 17-18, 2000, which was organised by PECC
(Pacific Economic Cooperation Council).
Prof Tegart also gave a report on the project to:

POLMET 2000 - 6th International Conference on Pollution in Metropolitan Cities - in Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia on March 20, 2000. This generated great interest, and stimulated a
number of experts to ask to join the project. The conference was presided over by the
Prime Minister of Malaysia and it was highly regarded by the local people.
Further opportunities need to be identified for 2001.
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Annual Report 2000
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
4. Foresight Projects in Thailand
***************************************
The APEC Center for Technology Foresight encouraged other agencies to undertake foresight
projects, through a variety of methods suited to the needs of each agency and project.
In each of the following projects, the Center played (and will continue to play) a key role in terms
of study design and implementation. In each case, the Center will be facilitating a scenarioplanning workshop as a core part of the overall project, and will, in some cases, also assist with
a Delphi survey. These projects were all initiated in 2000 and are due for completion in 2001.
IT for Education
A follow up to the APEC - wide project on Technology for Learning and Culture.
Project Leader: Dr Pichet Durongkaveroj, Advisor to the President of KMUTT
Objective:
to look into the future of IT and its role in education in Thailand.
Methodologies: scenario-workshop and Delphi survey.
Time Frame:
6 months
Funding:
the Center has awarded a grant of 700,000 baht.
Healthy Futures for Thai Cities
A follow up to the APEC - wide project on Healthy Futures for APEC Megacities.
Project Leader: Dr Somchai Durongdej, Head of the Department of Nutrition, Faculty of
Public Health, Mahidol University
Objective:
to improve the quality and effectiveness of training in urban planning,
including the promotion of scenario-planning techniques.
Methodologies: One 5-day training workshop, including 2-days of scenario-planning,
plus follow up activities around the country.
Time Frame:
12 months
Funding:
the Center has awarded a grant of 683,000 baht.
IT for SMEs
A project initially proposed by the Ministry of Industry.
Project Leader: Mr Pairat Piathanom, General Manager of TeleEngineering and
Services, for the Department of Industrial Promotion, Ministry of Industry.
Objective:
to optimise and increase use of IT resources in SMEs throughout
Thailand in order to increase productivity over the next 5 years
Methodologies: Delphi survey and scenario planning.
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Annual Report 2000
Time Frame:
10 months
Funding:
the Center has awarded a grant of 750,000 baht.
Negotiations about further projects began in 2000 but were not concluded by the end of the
year. These include the following:
Industrial Safety Management
Another project initially proposed by the Ministry of Industry.
This project is still under development.
Center staff attended several meetings to
explain the value and purpose of foresight and help plan the study. It is led by the
Industrial Estates Authority of Thailand, with expert input from the Institute for
Environmental Research at Chulalongkorn University. The focus will be the safety of
the petrochemical complex at Maptaput Industrial Estate on the Eastern Seaboard. The
project will be self-funded.
Microelectronics Industry
The International Disk Drive Equipment Manufacturing Association (IDEMA) is
interested in doing a foresight project encompassing microelectronic industries
operating in Thailand. IDEMA invited the Center to 2 meetings to discuss foresight and
the scope of a possible project. Further negotiations are underway.
In addition to supporting these projects in Thailand, the Center also conducted a scenario
training session using the theme of “Food Safety” for students at Mahidol University’s
Department of Public Health, on November 1, 2000.
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
5. Training and Consultancy in APEC
**********************************************
Malaysia
The Center was invited by the Malaysian Construction Industry Development Board to facilitate
a training workshop on technology foresight methodology, focusing on scenario-planning for the
construction industry. The theme was “the Construction Industry in Malaysia in the Year 2020”,
and the outputs of this workshop contributed to the formulation of the master plan for the
Malaysian construction industry to the year 2020.
The workshop was led by Prof Greg Tegart, Executive Advisor to the Center, with the Center’s
assistant policy researchers, Ms Nalinrat Viwatanant and Miss Mayuree Vathanakuljarus,
assisting. The Center charged US$ 2,500 for this event, which was a subsidized rate.
The workshop was attended by 22 participants from both public and private agencies in the
construction industry. The workshop evaluation results indicated that participants were very
satisfied with the workshop overall. They believed that follow-up activities should be pursued, as
well as seeing potential for APEC-wide study for the construction industry. Suggestions for
improvements included extending the training time and involvement of more players in the
industry.
Vietnam
NISTPASS, the National Institute for Science and Technology Policy and Strategic Studies, in
Vietnam decided to establish a national foresight unit in 1999 and requested the assistance of
the Center. The Co-Director visited NISTPASS, and in May 2000, the Center welcomed two
members of NISTPASS to Bangkok for a week, for further discussions and training. The guests
from NISTPASS were Dr Nguyen Van Thu, Head of Technology Policy Department and Dr
Nguyen Manh Quan, Vice-Head of Technology Policy Department. Discussion then continued
about how best to assist the new unit, and it was decided to organise an APEC Symposium on
Technology Foresight in Hanoi in 2001.
Mexico
The Center responded to two separate requests for advice and information from Mexico, mostly
about Delphi methodology. Center staff were also invited by Dr. Efrain Aceves Piña, Director for
International Cooperation at CONACYT, to visit Mexico to provide training on foresight
methodologies and advise on the proposed national foresight program. This event was later
postponed until spring 2001.
On this trip, Prof. Tegart and Dr. Chatri will also take the
opportunity to conduct post-foresight activities for the research project on Water Supply and
Management, Technology for Learning and Culture and Megacities.
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Annual Report 2000
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
6. International Technology Foresight Conference
*************************************************************
This conference provided an excellent opportunity to reflect on the latest developments in
foresight worldwide, to learn from the newest and most innovative projects, and to discuss
foresight with world-class experts.
Date:
7-8 March 2000
Venue:
Cosmos Hall, Toshi Center Hotel, Tokyo
Organiser:
National Institute for Science and Technology Policy, Japan
Co-Organisers:
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Tsukuba EXPO’85 Memorial Foundation
Theme:
The Approach to and Potential for New Technology Foresight
The conference included the following panels:
-
Current Foresight Activities Worldwide
(country presentations on UK, Australia, Canada, Sweden, New Zealand, the USA,
Germany, Austria, Korea, China and Japan);
-
Multi-country Foresight Activities
(with presentations on APEC and European foresight studies);
-
Lessons for Foresight Newcomers
(with presentations from South Africa, Hungary, Thailand and the APEC Center); and -
-
Foresight by Mode 2 Approach
(meaning the integration of socio-economic considerations into national foresight exercises,
with presentations from the UK and Japan).
Participants:
A total of 300 (March 7: about 200, March 8: about 100).
Breakdown:
March 7
Embassy
10
Government office
March 8
3
17
5
106
57
College
24
4
Public corporation, foundation
26
18
Press
4
0
Other
15
9
Total
202
96
Private firm
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Annual Report 2000
In addition to the many interesting ideas presented by each speaker, the following themes
emerged from the conference:
(1) Developing countries, as well as advanced ones, recognize the necessity and usefulness of
technology foresight.
(2) The definition of technology foresight is almost the same for all countries concerned, with
only slight variation from country to country.
(3) Currently, technology foresight is developing dynamically, encouraging many countries to
work out an optimal combination of techniques. It is essential for countries carrying out
foresight activities to exchange opinions and information with one another. In this sense,
the conference was extremely significant.
(4) In developing foresight activities, the OECD initiative, or the 1994 professional conference,
played a critical role in bringing us to the second generation of foresight. Today, technology
foresight is developing beyond the OECD area on a global scale. Many countries are
integrating socioeconomic factors into foresight to utilize it as an effective policy tool.
The Center advised on the program and speakers, organised the panel on Multi-Country
Foresight, and contributed several speakers.
The papers contributed by the Center and
members of its Steering Committee and International Advisory Board are listed below (full
contact details of SC and IAB members are given in the section on ‘governance’). These will be
included in the Proceedings, which the Center helped to prepare, and which will be published by
NISTEP, Japan, in 2001.
-
Introduction to the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, Dr Chatri Sripaipan, Co-Director
-
Foresight Studies in Australia, Prof Greg Tegart, Executive Advisor
-
The Application of Technology Projection Methods in Canada, Dr Sadiq Hasnain, SC
member
-
Technology Foresight in Japan, the Potential and Implications of the Delphi Approach, Mr
Terutaka Kuwahara, IAB member
-
Multi-Economy Foresight – Experience of the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, by
Prof Greg Tegart (Executive Advisor)
-
Multi-Country Delphi, by Dr Taeyoung Shin, IAB member
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
-
Lessons Learned in Technology Foresight from a Developing Country Perspective, by Dr
Malee Suwana-adth, IAB member
-
Authority, Legitimacy and Credibility of Technology Foresight Studies, by Tamsin Jewell
(staff), Dr Chatri Sripaipan, (Co-Director) and Dr Kittiwat Uchupalanan (Deputy Director of
the Technology and Innovation Policy Research Unit at NSTDA).
Several members of the International Advisory Board chaired sessions at the conference,
including Mr Jacques Lyrette, Prof Yongyuth Yuthavong, Prof Sippanondha Ketudat and Prof
Greg Tegart. Prof Sippanondha also provided a short Closing Address.
Mrs Monthida Sitathani, Head of NSTDA’s International Cooperation Department, arranged a
large Thai delegation to the conference.
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Annual Report 2000
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
7. Public Seminar-“Foresight and Innovation: Lessons from New Zealand”
*******************************************************************************************
Of all the many national foresight programs underway in the 1990s, there were 2 that stood out
as particularly successful at exploring the future, and ensuring that the outcomes of those
explorations contributed to government policy and investment: The United Kingdom and New
Zealand.
In June 1999, Prof Ben Martin, Director of the Science and Technology Policy Research Unit at
the University of Sussex, UK (SPRU) had been invited to give a public lecture in Bangkok on
“The Role of Foresight in Wiring up the National Innovation System”.
In March 2000, a public lecture on “Foresight and Innovation: Lessons from New Zealand” was
given by Dr Paul Reynolds, Chief Policy Advisor at the Ministry of Research, Science and
Technology.
Date:
13 March 2000 9:00h-11:30h
Venue:
Siam City Hotel, Bangkok
No of participants:
160
Program
8:30h-9:00h
Registration
9:00h-9:10h
Welcome Address by Prof Pairash Thajchayapong, Director,
NSTDA
9:10h-9:30h
Introduction on “Linkages between Foresight and Innovation” by
Professor Greg Tegart, Executive Advisor, APEC TF Center
9:30h-10:30h
Lecture on “Innovation and Foresight in New Zealand” by Dr.
Paul Reynolds, Chief Policy Advisor, Ministry of Research,
Science and Technology, New Zealand
10:30-10:55h
Coffee Break
10:55h-11:45h
Open Discussion on “Innovation and Foresight in New Zealand:
Implications for Thailand”
chaired by Dr. Chatri Sripaipan, Co-
Director, APEC TF Center
The New Zealand foresight project was carried out over 1998/9. Three scenarios were developed in
order to stimulate thinking about how to accentuate positive trends and avoid problems. The project
yielded 14 strategic goals and sector strategies for key sections of the economy. The results of the
project are clearly reflected in the government’s investments in research and development. Overall
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Annual Report 2000
the project changed government focus from what it wants to spend to what it wants to achieve
through its investment.
This event was extremely well attended and the discussion was excellent, including a wide
variety of thoughtful and interesting questions. Lunch and transportation to the APEC 18th
ISTWG Meeting in Pattaya was also arranged for participants of the ISTWG
Dr Paul Reynolds is the Chief Policy Adviser at the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology
(paul.reynolds@morst.govt.nz). He has a background in biochemistry and molecular biology. As the
Chief Policy Adviser for MoRST, Dr Reynolds is accountable for providing strategic leadership for the
Ministry relevant to the provision of Science and Technology advice policy advice to the NZ Government.
Dr Reynolds leads a small group of professional advisers and reports directly to the Chief Executive of the
Ministry. At the time of the seminar, much of Dr Reynolds’ work was focussed on the Foresight Project
which was used to set a new paradigm for Research, Science and Technology in New Zealand.
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
8. Website: http://www.apectf.nstda.or.th
***************************************************
The website provided information about the Center and its activities, and about foresight
elsewhere in APEC. It offered links to relevant sites around the world, as well as to the APEC
Industrial Science and Technology Working Group site at http://www.apecst.org.
In 2000,
approximately 14,000 cybernauts visited the site. Towards the end of the year, the Center
became aware that this level of visits was actually quite low, and determined to increase the
visibility of the web site in 2001.
9. APEC Technology Foresight Network
*************************************************
Discussion facilities were available on the site but were never well used. It was therefore
decided to develop a new APEC Technology Foresight Network, with the expert help of the
National Research Council of Canada.
This network aims to provide better linkages and
share expertise and information resources, among foresight practitioners around APEC, using
predominantly electronic tools. The network concept and mode of operation was developed by
the NRC, in consultation with Center staff, and a prototype was demonstrated to the Steering
Committee and International Advisory Board in November 2000. It was decided to press ahead
with this project, which clearly has great potential for connecting foresight experts, improving the
flow of ideas and information, and helping to build up the Center’s knowledge of foresight in
APEC and around the world.
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Annual Report 2000
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
10. External Review
*************************
This review had a number of purposes:
1. to fulfil a commitment made to the Industrial Science and Technology Working
Group of APEC at the time of the Center’s establishment
2. to demonstrate the value of the Center, in order to secure continued funding from
the Royal Thai Government, and obtain further funding from new sources
3. to assess the effectiveness of the Center, in order to improve it
4. to assist with planning for the future direction and role of the Center
The Evaluators were chosen from APEC member economies with different characteristics, for
example in terms of size, level of development and planning styles – China and New Zealand.
Prof Dr Xue Lan
Dr Paul Gandar
Development Research Academy for the 21st
Century
5th Floor, Mingli Building
Tsinghua University
Beijing 100084
PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
Principal Policy Adviser, and New Zealand
Foresight Project Coordinator
Ministry of Research, Science and
Technology
PO Box 5336
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Telephone: 86-10-62773828 (office)
86-1380-138-8302 (mobile);
Fax:
86-10-62782605
e-mail:
lanxue@public.east.cn.net
Telephone: 64-4-496 3952
Fax:
e-mail:
64-4-471 1284
PGandar@morst.govt.nz
Prof Greg Tegart (Executive Advisor) prepared a submission for the Evaluators, outlining the
Center’s history, operations and plans. Then the two Evaluators visited Bangkok for 3 days, for
a series of interviews with staff, Steering Committee members, Thai members of the
International Advisory Board, NSTDA executives, the Thai ISTWG contacts and participants in
the Center’s activities (alumni). The evaluators obtained additional information from email
correspondence with the International Advisory Board. They then submitted a draft report, which
was slightly revised after some feedback from the Steering Committee.
The report was
completed at the beginning of October.
The Center covered all the expenses of the facilitators and offered a professional fee in
addition. Dr Paul Gandar from the MoRST, New Zealand declined the fee. Thus, this activity
was supported by New Zealand through a very generous ‘in-kind’ contribution.
- 31 -
Annual Report 2000
The full report can be obtained from the Center. The Summary is reproduced below:
The APEC Center for Technology Foresight (CTF) was launched at the beginning of
1998 with approval and support from both the Thai Government and APEC Industrial
Science and Technology Working Group (ISTWG). The Center aims to develop
technology foresight research and application capabilities and to promote the adoption
of technology foresight as a tool in strategic planning in science and technology in both
Thailand and APEC community. Since 1998, it has established itself, undertaken and
published a number of technology foresight studies, organised conferences, seminars
and training courses and built up international linkages.
A commitment to evaluate CTF was made at the time the Center was set up. The
evaluation was carried out in July 2000 by Professor Lan Xue of the Development
Research Academy for the 21st Century, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, and Dr
Paul Gandar of the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology, Wellington, New
Zealand. This report describes our findings.
We used a framework that focussed on objectives, client relationships, governance
arrangements, operational capacity and funding arrangements to review the Center.
Our main findings are that CTF has:

built a sound basis for its operations in Thailand and has begun to develop clients
and networks in other economies;

established a capacity to carry out foresight projects using a range of
methodologies and pioneered development of multi-economy foresight
methodologies;

completed four major projects and a larger number of minor projects;

contributed to development of foresight capacities in Thailand and is building
awareness in developing economies; and,

gained base funding from the Royal Thai, project funding from APEC and support
in kind from organisations in a number of APEC economies.
Overall, we were impressed at the level of CTF's achievement and the quality of its
work. The dedication and commitment of CTF staff was particularly noteworthy.
The main factors limiting CTF's future development are its levels of staffing and finances
relative the size of its mission and the opportunities for its work within APEC . Some
suggestions on elements of future strategies for CTF are outlined.
The report ends with four specific recommendations:

a growth strategy needs to be developed for CTF;

the Center needs to secure stronger commitment and support from APEC;

a fund raising strategy needs to be developed and implemented; and,

an Executive Director and administrative assistant need to be appointed to boost
the Center's capacity.
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
The final report was circulated to all members of the Steering Committee and International
Advisory Board, and then considered comprehensively in the combined IAB/SC meeting held on
November 30 and December 1, 2000. Further details of this meeting can be found in the
section on Foresighting the Future of the APEC CTF. It was also decided to submit the report in
full to the ISTWG meeting in Vietnam in April 2001, with a covering letter from the Center
explaining how it intends to act on the outcomes of the Evaluation.
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Annual Report 2000
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
11. Organization and Governance
*****************************************
The governance and accountability structure of the Center is described in the following diagram:
Organisation Chart
APEC
Government
of Thailand
ISTWG
NSTDA
APEC
Secretariat
International
Advisory
Board
Steering
Committee
Director
Administrative
support
(NSTDA)
Executive
Advisor
Supporters
and alumni
Virtual CTF
CTF staff
staffente
r sCTF
staff
Experts
The operational structure is in bold. The work of the operational structure is
supported and extended by the range of individuals and organisations that
overlap the dashed line. This can be described as the Center’s virtual structure.
Lines of accountability and strategic direction setting extend through the
Steering Committee and the Director to APEC and the Thai Government. These
provide the Center’s governance structure.
APEC = Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation
CTF =
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
NSTDA = National Science and Technology Development Agency
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Annual Report 2000
Senior Executives
Dr Arthur Carty, President of the National Research Council of Canada accepted the role of
Honorary Director for 2000-2001.
Dr Chatri Sripaipan of Thailand served as Co-Director throughout 2000.
Prof Greg Tegart was appointed as Executive Advisor to the Center for 2000-2001. Prof Tegart
was formerly the first Director of the Center from 1998-1999.
Steering Committee
The Center’s work was overseen by a Steering Committee that met 3 times in 2000: May 8,
September 11 and November 30-December 1. The Committee recruited one new member in
2000, namely Dr Sadiq Hasnain, Senior Policy Advisor, National Research Council of Canada.
Thus by the end of the year, the members of Steering Committee were:
Steering Committee in 2000
Advisor
Mr Santhad Somchevita
Chairman
Professor Pairash
Thajchayapong
Dr Suvit Vibulsresth
Mr Thamarak Karnpisit
Associate Professor Songkram
Luangtongkum
Mr Manu Leopairote
Dr Kobsak Chutikul
Professor Montri Chulavatanatol
Mr Khemadhat Sukondhasingha
Dr Krissanapong Kirtikara
Dr Sadiq Hasnain
(NRC, Canada)
Secretary
Dr Chatri Sripaipan
Position
Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Science, Technology
and Environment, Thailand
President of the National Science and Technology
Development Agency, Thailand
Deputy Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Science,
Technology and Environment, Thailand
Chief Executive Planning Advisor, National Economic and
Social Development Board, Thailand
Deputy Permanent Secretary, Ministry of University
Affairs, Thailand
Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Industry, Thailand
Director-General, Dept of Economic Affairs, Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, Thailand
Department of Biochemistry, Mahidol University, Thailand
Deputy Secretary General, the Federation of Thai
Industries, and President of the SIKOR Group of
Companies, Thailand
President of Kong Mongkut University of Technology,
Thonburi, Thailand
Senior Policy Advisor, National Research Council of
Canada
Co-Director, APEC Center for Technology Foresight
- 36 -
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
International Advisory Board
The International Advisory Board guided the work of the Center, with 2 meetings in 2000. The
first was hosted by the National Institute for Science and Technology Policy, Japan on the
occasion of the international conference on technology foresight. It was held on March 6, 2000
in Tokyo. The second was a combined meeting with the Steering Committee on November 30 –
December 1, 2000 in Ayuthaya, Thailand.
International Advisory Board
members 2000-2001
Chairman
Prof Yongyuth Yuthavong
THAILAND
Honorary Director
Dr Arthur Carty
CANADA
Executive Advisor
Prof Greg Tegart
AUSTRALIA
Prof Sipphanondha Ketudat
THAILAND
Mr Jacques Lyrette
CANADA
Prof Ron Johnston
AUSTRALIA
Dr Taeyoung Shin
KOREA
Mr Terutaka Kuwahara
JAPAN
Dr Malee Suwana-adth
THAILAND
Secretary
Dr Chatri Sripaipan
Position
Director, Thailand Graduate Institute for Science and
Technology
President, National Research Council of Canada
Former Director, APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Chairman of the Executive Board, Office of the National
Economic and Social Development Board
Vice-President, Technology and Industry Support,
National Research Council
Executive Director, Australian Centre for Innovation and
International Competitiveness Limited, University of
Sydney
Head, S&T Indicators and Analyses, Science and
Technology Policy Institute
Director, Technology Forecast Research Team, National
Institute for Science, Technology and Environmental
Policy
Independent Consultant (Technology Management)
and Special Consultant, National Center for Genetic
Engineering and Biotechnology, NSTDA
Co-Director, APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Staffing Matters
In October 2000, Mrs Nalinrat Viwatanant, Assistant Policy Researcher, left the Center to
pursue a career in the banking and finance sector in Thailand.
The post was vacant until the
end of the year.
Also in October, Miss Malai Jisumrid joined the team as a administrative assistant. This is a
temporary post for one year.
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Annual Report 2000
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
12. Foresighting the Future of the APEC Center for Technology Foresight
******************************************************************************************
Special Combined Meeting of the Steering Committee and
International Advisory Board
Background
This meeting had been planned for almost a year. It was intended to be the culmination of a
process of evaluation (which had included an External Review) and an important opportunity to
set the direction of the APEC Center for Technology Foresight over the next few years. The
External Review had strongly emphasised the need for the CTF to decide where to focus its
efforts:
We have no doubts that the CTF needs to be nurtured and grown. The key question is:
‘in what way’? … CTF is a very small organisation with a very large mission… The
wide and, hence, shallow spread of activities is a weakness…. Although this has
enabled the Center to both build credibility with a wide range of stakeholders and to
develop expertise in different methodologies, it will need to develop a stronger focus in
future work.
External Review Report by Prof Xue Lan (China) and Dr Paul Gandar (New Zealand)
CTF and its boards had naturally been aware of this problem for some time, and occasional
discussions on how to address it had taken place. The purpose of this meeting was to have
sufficient time and concentration to bring such discussions to a convincing conclusion. With an
attendance of well over half the members of the Steering Committee and International Advisory
Board, as well as staff and other interested persons, the decisions taken at this meeting were
promptly adopted by the APEC CTF.
Outcomes
The core parameters of the Center’s operations were revised and concluded as noted in the
Introduction.
In order to optimise the use of the Center’s limited resources, emphasis was placed on certain
core activities, namely
1. APEC-wide foresight projects
2. Promotional activities through a foresight network,
3. Multi-economy foresight training, and
4. Consultancy work at single-economy level.
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Annual Report 2000
A decision was also taken to expand the capabilities and capacity of the core team, with the
recruitment of additional senior staff. It was also decided to explore the possibility of an ‘armslength’ fund to receive donations for the work of the Center.
New Multi-economy Foresight Projects
It was decided at the meeting to propose two new projects to the next meeting of the APEC
Industrial Science and Technology Working Group in Hanoi, Vietnam in April 2001. The topics
chosen for study were foresight for ‘Nanotechnology’ and foresight and ‘Food’. Looking further
ahead, reference was made to the survey for topics undertaken as part of the Feasibility Study
for the Establishment of the Center in 1997, and in particular, foresight studies on technologies
for environmental protection and clean/green energy were suggested for future years.
- 40 -
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
13. APEC Industrial Science and Technology Working Group
***************************************************************************
The APEC Center for Technology Foresight is a project of the Industrial Science and
Technology Working Group of APEC. The Center’s mandate to promote foresight across APEC
is derived from this group. The Center therefore regards it as essential to participate fully in the
biannual ISTWG meetings, and to hold Side Meetings before each ISTWG meeting in order to
keep members informed of its activities, and to seek their participation and their opinions. The
multi-economy foresight projects conducted by the Center were partially funded from the APEC
Central Fund through the endorsement of ISTWG, and so the Center also had to comply with
formal accountability processes, in the form of progress reports and evaluation reports.
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Annual Report 2000
18th ISTWG meeting
This was hosted by Thailand in March 2000, and so all the Center staff were able to attend. In
addition to the usual level of participation, the Center also helped with the organisation and
running of this meeting, and reported on its projects to the Side Meeting on Emerging Infectious
Diseases, and to Ad-Hoc Group C which considers projects related to Sustainable
Development.
Dr Chatri Sripaipan, Co-Director of the Center chaired Ad-Hoc Group A at the
meeting.
18th ISTWG Side Meeting by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight and
14 March 2000 10:00-12:00
Pattaya, Thailand
Objectives:

To report on the research exercises of the APEC Center for Technology Foresight

To report on the International Conference on Technology Foresight in Japan: multicountry foresight experience of the APEC Center for Technology Foresight

To present the new project ideas of the Center

To collect ideas of participants on how to implement post-foresight activities throughout
APEC
Number of Participants: 34, from Australia; Canada; China; Indonesia; Japan; Korea;
Malaysia; New Zealand; Singapore; Chinese Taipei;
Thailand; USA and the APEC Secretariat.
Program:
10:00-10:05h
Introduction
by Dr Chatri Sripaipan, Co-Director
10:05-10:15h
Launch of the final reports of the research projects: “Sustainable Transport”,
and “Technology for Learning and Culture”,
by Professor Greg Tegart, Executive Advisor
10:15-10:45h
Report on current research project: “Healthy Futures for APEC Megacities”
seeking participation in ‘Experts Meeting’ 29-31 May, Bangkok,
by Ms. Tamsin Jewell, Policy Researcher,
10.45-11.00h
Report of the International Conference on Technology Foresight in Japan,
by Professor Greg Tegart and Dr. Chatri Sripaipan
11:00-11:20h
Presentation of new project: The APEC Technology Foresight Network,
by Mr Arvind Chatbar, National Research Council of Canada
11:20-11.35h
Discussion of new research topics
by Professor Greg Tegart and Dr. Chatri Sripaipan
11.35-12.00h
Discussion on Post-foresight Activities of the APEC Center for Technology
Foresight, and how to implement research results
by Professor Greg Tegart and Dr. Chatri Sripaipan
12:00h
Close
- 42 -
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
19th ISTWG meeting
This meeting was hosted by Brunei in early October 2000. It was attended by Dr Chatri
Sripaipan (Co-Director) and Ms Nalinrat Viwatanant (Assistant Policy Researcher). Dr Chatri
also contributed to the Policy Dialogue of ISTWG by giving a presentation about NSTDA and
joining the discussions. Dr Chatri Sripaipan, Co-Director of the Center, served ah the Head of
the Thai Delegation to this meeting, and also chaired Ad-Hoc Group A.
19th APEC ISTWG Side Meeting by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight
9 October 2000 10:00-12:00
Brunei Darussalam
Objectives:
To ensure the Center’s activities respond to the needs of APEC members
To seek ISTWG delegates’ ideas on how to implement project outcomes throughout APEC
To promote understanding of the value of Technology Foresight
Number of Participants: 26, from Australia; Brunei; Canada; China; Hong Kong,
China; Indonesia; Japan; Korea; Malaysia; Chinese Taipei;
Thailand; USA; and Vietnam.
Program:
10:00- 10:05h
Introduction
by Dr Chatri Sripaipan, Co-Director
10:05-10:20h
Report on the Completion of the Foresight Project on “Healthy
Futures for APEC Megacities” and Plan for Post-Foresight Activities
by Ms Nalinrat Viwatanant, Assistant Policy Researcher
10:20-10:35h
Report on External Review of the Center
by Dr Chatri Sripaipan
10:35-10:50h
Report on Sectoral Foresight Project “the Role of IT for SMEs”
by Ms Nalinrat Viwatanant
10:50-11:00h
APEC Technology Foresight Network
11: 00:11:15h
by Dr. Chatri Sripaipan
Introduction of Possible New APEC Foresight Project on
“Nanotechnology”
by Dr. Chatri Sripaipan
11:15:11:30h
Technology Foresight Symposium in Hanoi, Vietnam
by Mr. Nguyen Manh Quan, Vice-Head of Technology Foresight,
National Institute for Science and Technology Policy and Strategy
11:30-12:00h
Studies (NISTPASS), Vietnam
Discussion on Opportunities for Post-foresight Activities and Other
Technology Foresight Activities in APEC member economies
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Annual Report 2000
IST01/99: APEC-Wide Studies of Megacities and Technology for Learning by the APEC
Center for Technology Foresight
This project officially finished at the end of 2000, although post-foresight work to promote the project
outcomes will continue. The Center received US$ 150,000 from the APEC Central Fund for this project,
and therefore completed an Evaluation Report at the end of the year. It was submitted on January 9, 2001
and will be considered by the next meeting in Vietnam in April 2001. The report is included as an
Appendix to this Annual Report. Three progress reports were also completed during the project as
required.
IST01/98: Establishing the APEC Center for Technology Foresight.
This project officially finished at the end of 1999, although the work of the Center continues.
The Center received US$ 50,000 from the APEC Central Fund and therefore completed an
Evaluation Report, which was submitted in January 2000. In December 2000, the following
feedback on this report was obtained:
Lead Shepherds/Chairs comments
I commend the achievements made so far in this project, and appreciate the role it has
played in the ISTWG’s efforts in addressing the theme of “Harnessing Technologies for
the Future”. I call for more active participation of the APEC member economies in the
project.
APEC Secretariat comments.
-
It can be noted that the Center has been established successfully and has already
implemented various activities with the strong support of the host economy and other
member economies. On the other hand, further strong interest and support by
member economies in future will be very important for the continuous success of the
Center.
-
This is one of the active IST projects with diverse programs and long terms effect
and meet many of the APEC themes and initiatives in S & T, and HRD.
-
As the Thailand overseer indicated, the project overseer is encouraged to get more
familiarity with the APEC project guidelines.
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
14. Budget
**************
The Center had 3 main sources of funding in 2000.
1) The Royal Thai Government provided generous support of around 8 Million Thai-baht
(approximately US$200,000) for all the Center’s staff and other running costs of the Center,
and for the organisation of its events. This allocation and the spending record are detailed
in table B1 on the following page.
Please note that this Annual Report covers a calendar year, 2000. However, the financial
year of NSTDA, the Center’s host organisation runs from October to September. Therefore
the table covers the period October 1999 – September 2000.
2) The Center was also honoured to receive US$150,000 from the APEC Central Fund for
partial support of the multi-economy foresight projects on Megacities and Technology for
Learning and Culture over 1999-2000.
Upon completion of these projects, at the end of
2000, this APEC budget was underspent by approximately 18%. The major underspend fell
in two categories. Firstly, only about half the publications budget was used even though a
greater number of final reports were printed than promised. The reason for this is that the
APEC Secretariat kindly allowed the CTF to print them in Thailand rather than Singapore,
which led to significant savings.
Secondly, the direct labour budget was underspent
because of the excellent levels of support from member economies, which could not be
assumed at the time of the application. The application had to ensure that the budget was
sufficient to complete a successful project, but it turned out that in 2 of the 3 subprojects, an
Issues Paper was provided free (10 ‘expert-days’ per paper had been budgetted).
In
addition to this, none of the experts contributing to the Experts Meetings charged a fee, and
most also covered their own travelling expenses.
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Annual Report 2000
Table B2: APEC Member ‘in-kind’ contributions to the research projects in 1999-2000
Estimated total value= US$ 373,000
Australia
Aus$
Canada
20,000
‘Sustainable
to
host
Transport’;
an
Experts
Participation
on
Hosting Costs for an Experts Meeting on ‘Technology
Experts
for Learning and Culture’; Preparation of an Issues
Meeting
in
Meetings in Australia, Canada and Thailand
Paper; Participation in Experts Meeting in Canada.
Hong Kong, China
Indonesia
Participation in Experts Meetings in Australia and
Participation in Experts Meetings in Canada and
Canada
Thailand
Japan
Malaysia
Participation in Experts Meetings in Canada and
Participation in Experts Meetings in Canada and
Thailand.
Thailand.
Peru
Philippines
Participation in Experts Meetings in Thailand.
Participation in Experts Meetings in Australia and
Canada
Singapore
Chinese Taipei
Participation in Experts Meetings in Australia and
Participation in Experts Meetings in Canada and
Canada.
Thailand.
Thailand
USA
(in addition to core funding for the CTF): Participation
Preparation of an Issues Paper; Project coordination
in Experts
work; Participation in 2 Experts Meetings in Thailand.
Meetings in Australia,
Canada and
Thailand.
Vietnam
Participation in Experts Meetings in Canada and
Thailand.
3) Thirdly, most of the experts who participated in the Center’s activities were funded by their
own economies or institutions, or offered their expert services free of charge to the Center.
It is only possible to make a rough estimate of these ‘in-kind’ contributions. Many are
described above, but in addition to these, there were in-kind contributions to support the
work of the International Advisory Board, for the External Review and for the public seminar.
The total value of these in-kind contributions in 2000 can be estimated at around
US$120,000.
Finally, the Center earned a relatively small sum from Consultancy work, and hopes that
this source of funding will increase in future years. This was a fee of US$ 2,500 received
from the Construction Industry Development Board of Malaysia for the two day training
workshop on scenario-planning.
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
No.
Table B1: Budget Report (from October 1, 1999 to September 30, 2000)
Items
Budget
Spent (฿(
Allocated
(฿(
Total Budget approved (oct. 99 - sept. 00)
8,374,500
฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿ / Operating cost
Final
Balance
2,100,000
2,100,000
0
1 ฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿ ฿฿฿฿฿฿ ฿฿฿฿฿ / Expenditures:
perdiem,publication,etc
2 ฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿ / Utilities
300,000
231,678
68,322
90,000
90,000
0
3 ฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿ / Research Funds for Thai Projects
1,220,000
2,133,000
-913,000
4 ฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿฿ / OTHER Expenses
4,664,500
2,651,310
2,013,190
International travel expenses
709,000
326,373
382,627
Public Seminars
623,061
485,778
137,283
Training Workshops
80,100
80,100
0
2,367,439
1,759,059
608,380
Others
฿8,374,500 ฿7,205,988
Income from Services
Training Workshop in Malaysia, March 21-22, 2000
$2,500
Total in Baht ฿102,725
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1,168,512
Annual Report 2000
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
15. International Networking
***********************************
1)
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, one of eight institutes of the Joint
Research Center of the European Commission.
The mission of IPTS is to provide techno-economic analysis support to European decision
makers, by monitoring and analysing scientific and technological developments, their crosssectoral impacts, their inter-relationships to the socio-economic context and future policy
implications, and to present this information in a timely and logical fashion. IPTS was
established in 1994 and is located in Seville in Spain.
IPTS recently began regional foresight studies, and thus its work is of special interest to the
Center. The Center therefore invited IPTS to participate in its panel on “Multi-economy
foresight” at the International Conference on Technology Foresight in Tokyo in March. Prof
Greg Tegart (Executive Advisor) then visited IPTS in September to exchange ideas and
information with several sub-groups there, especially to report on the Center’s multieconomy studies.
In 1997, IPTS constructed the European Science and Technology Observatory (ESTO) as a
‘technology-watch’ network. The ESTO network comprises over 30 organisations, which
supply IPTS with high-quality, up-to-date scientific and technological information drawn from
all over the world, facilitated by the network’s broad presence and wide range of contacts.
The APEC Center for Technology Foresight is an associate member of the ESTO network.
In 2000, Prof Greg Tegart (Executive Advisor) contributed a chapter on China to the
IPTS_ESTO Techno-Economic Analysis Report 1999-2000.
This report attempted to
answer the question: ‘what are the most significant projected impacts for EU policy-making
that can be identified, when taking stock of the scientific and technological developments
over 1999 and early 2000?’ The report has chapters on particular S&T topics with important
socio-economic implications for Europe (electronic commerce, DNA diagnostics, electricity
markets, fuel cells, nanotechnology and environmental indicators) and a section on
international R&D developments, including chapters on the USA, Japan, Russia and China.
2)
APEC R&D Leaders’ Forum III
Dr Chatri Sripaipan (Co-Director) attended the APEC R&D Leaders Forum which was hosted
by Canada, in September 2000. The Forum aims to assist in building an effective network of
APEC R&D Leaders and researchers from both the public and private sectors, to enhance
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Annual Report 2000
technology and information flows and strengthen innovation and growth in APEC member
economies through cooperation on science and technology.
The theme of this third Forum was “Creating and nurturing technology-based spin-offs and
SMEs.” A series of workshops was held, with topics related to application of IT, growth of
companies, HRD, investment and infrastructure support, best practice and role of
government and private sector in promoting SMEs.
Dr Chatri attended the APEC R&D Leaders Meeting, held conjointly with the Forum, where it
was decided to include “Foresight” as a regular agenda item in all future meetings.
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
16. Publications
*********************
Publications in 2000 are highlighted.
To order copies, please email to: apectf@nstda.or.th. Most publications can be downloaded
from the web site at http://www.nstda.or.th/apec/html/publica1.html
Foresight Project outputs

Water Supply and Management in the APEC Region
Vol 1: Summary Report (1999) Vol 2: The Supporting Material (1999)

Technology for Learning and Culture in the APEC Region to 2010 Vol 1:
Summary Report (2000) Vol 2: The Supporting Material (2000)

Sustainable Transport for APEC Megacities: Issues and Solutions Vol 1:
Summary Report (2000) Vol 2: Full Report (2000)

Healthy Futures for APEC Megacities Vol 1 and Summary Report (2000) Vol 2:
Summary Record of a Foresight Project (2000)

The Future of APEC Megacities: A Foresight Approach:
Review of Studies by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight 1998-2000 (December
2000)
General Books on Foresight

Proceedings of the APEC Symposium on Technology Foresight, held in Chiang Mai,
Thailand in July 1997.

Applications of Technology Foresight: Proceedings of the First Public Seminar, held in
Bangkok, Thailand in February 1998.
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Annual Report 2000
Conference Papers

Technology Foresight as a Tool for Strategic Science and Technology Planning and Policy
Development by Prof Yongyuth Yuthavong and Dr Chatri Sripaipan. Presented to the 5 th
ASEAN Science and Technology week in Hanoi, Vietnam, in October 1998.

Multi-Country Foresight – Issues and Challenges: a paper based on a foresight study in
progress on the Future for Water Supplies and Management in the APEC Region to the year
2010, by Ms Tamsin Jewell and Dr Chatri Sripaipan.
Presented to the 3rd International
Conference of the International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting
Institutions, in New Delhi, India, in November 1998.
 Sustainable Cities – can Foresight help us? by Prof Greg Tegart, presented to POLMET
2000 – the 6th International Conference on Pollution in Metropolitan Cities, in Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia, March 20, 2000.

Technology Foresight for Urban Sustainability – Regional Collaboration by Prof Greg
Tegart, presented to the 17th World Congress of the Eastern Regional Organisation for
Planning and Housing, in Asan City, Korea, October 11-13, 2000

Sustainable Transport for Megacities: Issues and Solutions, by Prof Greg Tegart,
presented to the 17th World Congress of the Eastern Regional Organisation for Planning and
Housing, in Asan City, Korea, October 11-13, 2000

Foresight for Healthy Megacities, remarks presented by Dr Chatri Sripaipan to the PECC
General Meeting on Sustainable Cities, in Bangkok, Thailand, October 17-18, 2000

The Approach to and Potential for New Technology Foresight: Proceedings of the
International Technology Foresight Conference, March 2000.
To be published by the
National Institute for Science and Technology Policy, Japan in early 2001 (see page 24)
Other Reports

Annual Reports 1998, 1999

Activities Report 1998

Activities Report 1999-2000
- 52 -