Chapter 3 Feasibility Analysis Chapter Notes I. Introduction Feasibility analysis is the process of determining if a business idea is viable The feasibility analysis step, along with the idea screening step, is investigative in nature and is designed to critically asses the merits of a business idea The most compelling facts a company can include in a business plan are the results of its own feasibility analysis, especially feedback from industry experts and prospective customers II. Template for Completing a Feasibility Analysis Template is shown in Table 3.1. A fuller version is provided in Appendix 1 at the end of the chapter The four parts of feasibility analysis are product/service feasibility, industry/market feasibility, organizational feasibility, and financial feasibility Completing a full feasibility analysis takes longer than a First Screen and should include both primary and secondary research III. Product/Service Feasibility Product/service feasibility is an assessment of the overall appeal of the product or service being proposed a. Product/Service Desirability The first component of product/service feasibility is to affirm that the proposed product or service is desirable and serves a need in the marketplace The proper mindset is to get a general sense of the answers to your product desirability questions rather than try to reach final conclusions i. Concept Test A concept test involves showing a preliminary description of a product or service idea, called a concept statement, to industry experts and prospective customers to solicit their feedback A concept statement is normally a one-page document which includes the following: (1) description of product or service, (2) intended target market, (3) benefits of product or service, (4) description of how the product or service will be positioned relative to competitors, (5) description of how the product or service will be sold, and (6) a brief description of company’s management team b. Product/Service Demand The second component of the product/service feasibility analysis is to determine if there is demand for the product or service i. IV. Concept statement should be shown to 5 to 10 people who are familiar with the industry the firm hopes to enter Attached to the concept statement should be a survey that asks participants to (1) tell you three things they like about the product or service idea, (2) provide you three suggestions for making it better (tell you whether they think the product or service idea is feasible), and (3) share additional comments or suggestions Buying Intentions Survey A buying intentions survey gauges customer interest in a product or service The buying intentions survey consists of a concept statement with a short survey attached The statement and survey should be distributed to 15 to 30 potential customers The statement and survey typically features a question that asks how likely the subject would be to buy the product or service Industry/Target Market Feasibility Analysis Industry/target market feasibility is an assessment of the overall appeal of the industry and the target market for the product or service being proposed Most firms do not try to service their entire industry, only a specific target market within the industry It’s important to assess both the broad industry and your specific target market a. Industry Attractiveness i. In general, the most attractive industries for start-ups are large and growing, are young rather than old, are early rather than late in their life cycle, and are fragmented rather than concentrated ii. Some industries are characterized by such high barriers to entry, or the presence of one or two dominant players, that potential entrants are essentially shut out iii. You should also note the degree to which environmental and business trends are moving in favor of rather than against the industry b. Target Market Attractiveness i. By focusing on a target market, a firm can usually avoid head-tohead competition with industry leaders, instead of serving a specialized market very well ii. iii. c. V. The challenge is to find a target market that’s large enough for the proposed business, yet is small enough to avoid attracting larger competitors Often, information from more than one industry and/or market must be collected and synthesized to make an informed judgment, especially if the firm is pioneering a unique area of the marketplace Market Timeliness i. Determine if the window of opportunity for the product or service is open or closed ii. Study the simple economics of the industry to determine whether the timing is right for a new entrant iii. Firms that fail to conduct a thorough industry and target market analysis often find that the market is not large enough to maintain and grow the business Organizational Feasibility Analysis Organizational feasibility analysis determines whether a proposed business has sufficient management expertise, organizational competence, and resources to successfully launch its business a. Management Prowess i. A start-up should assess the prowess, or ability, of its initial management team ii. Individuals starting the firm should conduct honest and candid self-assessments iii. Two of the most important factors are passion for the business and understanding of the markets in which the firm will compete iv. Additional factors that define management prowess include prior entrepreneurial experience, depth of professional and social networks, degree of creativity, experience in cash flow management, and whether the team has college degrees b. Resource Sufficiency i. The focus in organizational analysis is on non-financial resources because financial feasibility is considered separately ii. Identify the 8 to 12 most important and potentially problematic non-financial resources and assess whether they are available iii. Examples of non-financial resources include office space, manufacturing space, key management employees, key support personnel, and support from state and local governments if applicable iv. VI. One easily overlooked resource sufficiency issue that should be considered is proximity to similar firms, creating a cluster that can increase productivity of the participating firms Financial Feasibility For feasibility analysis, a preliminary financial analysis, is normally sufficient. The most important issues to consider at this stage are total start-up cash needed, financial performance of similar businesses, and overall financial attractiveness of the proposed venture More complete financial projections will be included in the business plan a. Total Start-up Cash Needed i. Try to determine total cash needed to prepare the business to make its first sale ii. A detailed explanation of where the money will come from should be provided iii. If money will come from friends, credit cards, or a home equity line of credit, a reasonable plan should be stipulated to repay the money iv. When projecting start-up expenses, it is better to overestimate rather than underestimate the costs involved b. Financial Performance of Similar Businesses i. Estimate a proposed start-up’s potential financial performance by comparing it to similar, already established businesses ii. Utilize archival data available online, including financial reports on firms iii. Some industry trade associations publish data on the sales and profitability of firms in their industries iv. Basic Internet searches are also helpful v. c. Simple observation and leg work can also be used to gauge the type of sales to expect by estimating the number of customers and average purchase amount at various times of day Overall Financial Attractiveness of the Proposed Venture i. The extent to which a proposed business appears positive relative to each factor is based on an estimate or forecast, not actual performance ii. Important factors include the extent to which sales can be expected to grow during the first few years of the venture, percentage of recurring revenue to anticipate, the likelihood that internally generated funds will be available within two years, and the availability of exit opportunities for investors if applicable