Does debtor-in-possession financing add value? Maria Carapeto London Business School March 7, 2016 PhD Programme, London Business School, Sussex Place, Regent’s Park, London NW1 4SA, United Kingdom. Telephone: +44 (0) 171 262 5050. Facsimile: +44 (0) 171 724 7875. Email: mcarapeto@lbs.ac.uk. I would like to thank my supervisor Julian Franks, Kjell Nyborg, Lakshmanan Shivakumar, Michael Brennan, Henri Servaes, Jan Mahrt-Smith, David Goldreich, Clara Raposo, Oren Sussman, Mark Britten-Jones, Will Holt, Aneel Keswani and Rainer Kiefer for very helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper. This work was presented at the TMR Workshop on Financial and Economic Efficiency (Florence, 1998), Institute of Finance and Accounting Seminar (London Business School, 1999), Financial Management Association (Barcelona, 1999) and European Financial Management Association (Paris, 1999). I would also like to thank Jonathan Eaton and Russell Lloyd for providing access to the databases used in this study. Financial support from Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia is gratefully acknowledged. Does debtor-in-possession financing add value? Abstract In this paper I analyse the role of debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing in the bankruptcy process. I examine the plans of reorganisation of a large sample of Chapter 11s and find that successful reorganisations benefited from DIP financing. The size of DIP financing is shown to have a positive impact on recovery rates. DIP financing is also associated with a larger probability of a successful reorganisation, thus favouring larger recovery rates. I also find evidence of larger management turnover in firms with DIP financing, particularly when the DIP lender has no pre-petition relation with the debtor. Key words: Bankruptcy reorganisation and liquidation; Debtor-in-possession financing; Recovery rates; Deviations from absolute priority; Management turnover. JEL classification: G32, G33. Does debtor-in-possession financing add value? In this paper I examine the importance of debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing and its contribution to the wealth of the stakeholders involved in the reorganisation of bankrupt firms. DIP financing provides lending to troubled companies in Chapter 11 and is usually a short-term lifeline in the form of working capital. The Code essentially aims to induce lenders to provide credit to the debtor and at the same time encourage the trustee or debtor-in-possession to incur expenses to maintain the collateral securing a claim. Dhillon et al. (1996) and Chatterjee et al. (1998) analysed stock and bond price responses to the announcement of DIP financing and also the likelihood of a successful reorganisation, when a firm emerges from bankruptcy with its independence preserved. They observed that new financing in bankruptcy is a positive signal to the market and DIP firms are involved in fewer liquidations. I employ a different approach, based on the plans of reorganisation of Chapter 11 firms. I use a sample of 389 large publicly-traded US firms that filed for Chapter 11 during 1986-1997, including both those with DIP financing and those without DIP financing. I compare recovery rates for all claimants of each firm to determine if DIP financing adds value to the company. I also examine the sub-sample of DIP financing firms to assess whether relatively larger amounts of DIP financing produce higher recovery rates, following a suggestion by Adams (1995). I find that there is no significant relation between the presence of DIP financing and recovery rates. However, DIP financing has a positive impact on creditors’ recovery rates as the size of the new loan increases. This is consistent with firms with larger new loans being subject to more monitoring from lenders and so less likely to over-invest. Gilson (1990) presents evidence that bank lenders exercise significant influence over financially distressed firms’ investment and financing policies. This indicates that DIP financing 1 should be considered as a positive signal for creditors only when the size of the loan is considerably large. This evidence contrasts with that presented by Dhillon et al. (1996) and Chatterjee et al. (1998), where the size of the new financing does not seem to be an issue.1 Gilson (1989) observed that bank lenders are frequently responsible for dismissing management in financially distressed firms. I find evidence of larger management turnover for DIP firms, contrasting with Chatterjee et al. (1998). This role is less evident when the DIP lender is also a pre-petition creditor. Like Dhillon et al. (1996), Chatterjee et al. (1998) and Elayan & Meyer (1999), I also show that DIP financing does contribute to successful emergence from bankruptcy. 2 In particular, I find that when firms did not obtain DIP financing they are more likely to be liquidated, and unsecured claimants would get lower recovery rates. In this way, since getting DIP financing improves the probability of a successful reorganisation (or decreases the probability of a liquidation), it is possible that, upon the announcement of DIP financing, the market may actually be reacting to a smaller probability of liquidation and not necessarily to higher recovery rates when compared with other bankrupt companies without DIP financing. I also run logit models to assess the likelihood of a successful emergence from Chapter 11, based on some firm characteristics and features of the bankruptcy processes. The paper is organised as follows: The next section provides a brief description of DIP financing. Section II presents the literature review. The hypotheses are introduced in Section III. The data and methodology are presented in Section IV. Section V provides the results, including recovery rates, the impact of DIP financing in successful reorganisations and the assessment of probabilities of a successful reorganisation, management turnover, the bankruptcy venue and the determinants of DIP financing. Section VI concludes. 2 I. Debtor-in-possession financing The market for debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing in Chapter 11 filings has experienced great development since 1984, when Chemical Bank created a separate DIP financing unit. Other banks have entered this market, namely Bankers Trust New York, Citibank and General Electric Capital Corp. They have experienced minimal losses on these loans because of their priority status. The company filing for a Chapter 11 that needs new financing has to file a motion for authorisation, which involves a two-step process. First, there is an interim financing order authorising the borrowing of a limited amount to enable the company to operate for a few weeks. Then, the entry of a permanent (final) order will potentially grant borrowing up to the full amount of the lender’s commitment. 3 The conditions of new financing are considered in Section 364 of the Bankruptcy Code. There is a hierarchy for obtaining post-petition financing, implying that the debtor first has to seek unsecured credit before the Court will grant any kind of greater protection to a new lender (see Rochelle, 1990). Following the legal fiction that a Chapter 11 is a new legal entity, the Court can permit new financing with priority over pre-petition unsecured creditors, with super-priorities over other post-petition creditors (even postpetition priority administrative expenses and taxing authorities), and secured by liens that have priority over pre-petition liens (priming liens) where the holders of such claims are adequately protected. However, there must be assets sufficient enough to cover both the new loan and all pre-petition secured debt not expressly subordinated by the Court’s order to the debtor-in-possession lender’s lien (Fitch Research, 1991).4 See Appendix A for a detailed examination of the different types of DIP financing. 3 II. Literature review Ostrow (1994) states that the decision whether to approve new financing is directly related to the likelihood that creditors would get more from the distribution under the plan of reorganisation. However, sometimes there is little time to consider that an immediate liquidation could be more profitable for the creditors, and the focus is instead on whether the debtor should be permitted an opportunity to reorganise. This implies that the total value of the firm available for distribution to the claimants may be smaller than without this new financing. Rohman & Policano (1990) say that even when the debtors are not confronted with imminent default, they may choose to file for Chapter 11 as a means to secure new financing and so preserve their flexibility to accommodate future growth. In this way, rather than the last resort, DIP financing can be viewed as a “pro-active” strategy. Perhaps surprisingly, the bankrupt companies see their terms of credit improve, both in accessibility and in cost, because there is only one post-petition creditor - the debtor-in-possession bank (Millman, 1990). Empirical studies in this area have essentially focused on the market reaction to the announcement of DIP financing and on the bankruptcy outcome. None of these studies considered the plans of reorganisation themselves, which provide the ultimate means of comparison between firms with DIP financing and firms without DIP financing, in terms of recovery rates and deviations from absolute priority rules. Also, these studies did not try to assess probabilities of a successful reorganisation once in Chapter 11, based on characteristics of the firm and the bankruptcy process. Datta & Iskandar-Datta (1995) examined the restructuring activities of 135 financially distressed companies that filed for Chapter 11 during 1989-1990. They found significant evidence for the fact that, during the two-year period prior to filing for bankruptcy, these firms were unable to obtain financing; however, after the filing, the infusion of new 4 capital via fresh loans is large, which may be explained by the super-priority status conferred to post-petition debt. In this way, the authors argued that firm value might not decrease, as there is an opportunity to invest in positive NPV projects. Dhillon et al. (1996) used a sample of 25 firms with debtor-in-possession financing and 80 firms without debtor-in-possession financing that filed for Chapter 11 during the period of January 1990 to December 1993 and showed the signalling role of this new financing. The announcement of debtor-in-possession financing is associated with positive abnormal returns on equity securities and positive (weak evidence) abnormal returns on debt securities. Also, firms that employ debtor-in-possession financing have more successfully reorganisations - higher percentage of firms emerging successfully from Chapter 11 and higher ex-post EBIDT (Earnings Before Interest, Depreciation and Taxes) as a proportion of total assets and sales. Chatterjee et al. (1998) examined a sample of 55 publicly traded firms that filed for Chapter 11 from January 1990 to December 1995 and received approval for DIP financing. Their results support the benefits of the certification and monitoring role provided by DIP lenders, that outweigh the high priority of DIP financing. They also show some evidence of management entrenchment. DIP financing is associated with a positive stock and bond price response, which may suggest the absence of wealth transfers from pre-petition creditors to high priority DIP lenders. They found that most firms that obtained DIP financing are not in economic distress. When compared to bankrupt firms without new financing, DIP firms show a significant larger probability of successfully emerging from Chapter 11 and not being involved in posterior filings. Elayan & Meyer (1999)5 used a sample of 123 firms with debtor-in-possession financing and 337 firms without debtor-in-possession financing that filed for Chapter 11 over the period 1980-1995. They support the signalling role provided by DIP lenders that DIP 5 firms face a lower probability of liquidation. DIP financing is associated with a positive stock price response, in particular if the DIP firm was subsequently liquidated or the lender was a pre-existing creditor or a bank. Larger loans (relative to total assets) and the first DIP transaction (as opposed to subsequent transactions) are also associated with a more positive market reaction. In addition, they found a shorter duration under bankruptcy proceedings for DIP firms, which may indicate lower bankruptcy costs. 6 III. Hypotheses Datta & Iskandar-Datta (1995) claim that with DIP financing the firm value suffers less erosion, due to an opportunity to invest in positive NPV projects. Dhillon et al. (1996) and Chatterjee et al. (1998) analysed the effect of DIP financing in the stock and bond markets and found a positive impact. This suggests that the concession of DIP financing does add value to the firm. Adams (1995) points out that it is not the concession of DIP financing per se that matters, but its size, implying that small loans should not make much of a difference. These effects should then be reflected in the payments received by the claimants upon reorganisation, which are stated in the plans of reorganisation. Hypothesis 1: Claimants of firms with DIP financing show higher recovery rates than those of firms without DIP financing. In particular, the larger the size of DIP financing, the higher the recovery rates. Dhillon et al. (1996), Chatterjee et al. (1998) and Elayan & Meyer (1999) show that firms with DIP financing are more likely to successfully reorganise. Schwarcz (1985) argues that obtaining new financing can act as a good signal to trade creditors and have them re-establish the terms of the trade credit with the company, thus increasing the likelihood of a successful reorganisation. These studies emphasise the positive role of DIP financing in a successful reorganisation. This is a very important issue, as far as 6 bankruptcy is often associated with asset sales at depressed prices, in particular with piecemeal liquidations, which constitute a significant dead-weight loss (see Andrade & Kaplan, 1998). Also, the productivity of the plants of Chapter 11 firms that were converted to Chapter 7 is much lower than those that remained in Chapter 11, as documented by Maksimovic & Phillips (1998), which suggests a lower value for the former firms. The positive impact of DIP financing should however be reduced in two circumstances: a) when the new loan is secured by a lien on already encumbered assets with equal or senior priority to the existing liens (priming liens); b) when the DIP lender is a pre-existing creditor and obtains an increase in the seniority of his pre-petition debt. These situations suggest a lack of confidence of the DIP lender in a successful reorganisation of the firm. Also, when DIP financing is granted by the Court shortly after filing for bankruptcy, this should not indicate necessarily good news, as far as there was not enough time to examine the financial situation of the firm, and so its true needs. Thus, successful reorganisations should be associated with more time to obtain DIP financing upon filing for bankruptcy. Hypothesis 2: DIP financing increases the probability of a going concern and so reduces the probability of liquidation, which involves lower recovery rates. The presence of priming liens or increased seniority of pre-petition loans, and a short time to obtain DIP financing increase the probability of liquidation. Chatterjee et al. (1998) argue that the evidence of management turnover in firms with DIP financing is not significant. The authors compared management turnover in their sample of DIP financing firms to those of Hotchkiss’ (1995), but it is possible that in this last sample some firms actually received DIP financing. This suggests that the two samples may not be independent, thereby limiting the validity of their results. Gilson (1989) observed that bank lenders frequently initiate top management changes in financially distressed firms. Gilson (1990) adds that bank lenders wield considerable 7 influence over investment and financing policies in financially distressed firms. Since the DIP lender is usually a bank with considerable expertise in the DIP financing market and the bankruptcy process, one should expect a larger monitoring and disciplining role in DIP firms, and eventually more management turnover. When the new financing was provided by a pre-petition creditor, this disciplining role should then be less evident, due to a previous relation with the debtor. Hypothesis 3: Management turnover is larger in firms with DIP financing. In particular, management turnover is larger when the new financing was granted by a new lender, without a pre-petition relation with the debtor. IV. Data and methodology A. Data sources The main source for the data used in this paper was the Bankruptcy DataSource. This database includes bankruptcy information for every publicly-traded company with assets in excess of $50 million7 that are in bankruptcy proceedings, have defaulted on public debt, or have issued a distressed exchange offer. The database begins in 1986. I compiled a list of 389 firms that went bankrupt from the 1st January 1986 to the 31st December 1997.8 Of these firms, 212 reorganised independently, 40 were acquired in bankruptcy, 57 were liquidated in Chapter 11, 13 were converted to Chapter 7 and 4 were dismissed; the result is unknown or still pending in 63 cases. The Bankruptcy DataSource (BKRDATA - Plans of Reorganization) supplied complete plans of reorganisation, with data concerning the satisfaction of all the claims, for 172 firms that reorganised successfully, including 72 debtors that raised DIP financing during the bankruptcy process. Also, complete plans of liquidation were compiled for 21 firms, 8 including 5 cases of DIP financing. The SEC (Securities Exchange Commission) filings (including the 8Ks, 10Ks and 10Qs) were also used to check and complement the information contained in BKRDATA. The stock prices and the number of outstanding shares were extracted from the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), Bloomberg and Datastream, upon emergence from Chapter 11. Occasionally there was no market value for the stock because the firm might have become private. In these cases (37 firms), I used the estimates provided in the plans of reorganisation (when a range of values was provided, I used the mid point). The same criteria was applied to the prices of debt securities, preferred stock, options, rights and warrants, where the sources included Bloomberg and DataStream, and ultimately the plans of reorganisation themselves. In the absence of market values or estimates for debt and preferred stock, the face value and the liquidation preference value were used instead, respectively (only 16 (2) firms in my sample had market values for debt (preferred stock)); as for options, rights and warrants, I used the Black-Scholes valuation model to price these securities (in 33 cases).9 All the news concerning the evolution of the bankruptcy process for the Chapter 11 firms were picked from the Dow Jones News Retrieval and also from the Bankruptcy DataSource (BKRDATA - DataPage and News Notes, and BKRNEWS). The DataPage covers such aspects as filing data, business reports, five year summary financials, descriptions of outstanding securities and schedules of assets and liabilities; it also supplies the creditors and equity-holders committees, the twenty largest unsecured creditors list and lists of attorneys and other appointed professionals. The News Notes is a search base that compiles significant news and developments (i.e. scheduled hearings), including some relevant dates (filing date, confirmation date and effective date), DIP financing (amounts, dates, agents), reasons and type of filing, industry, 9 trustees, previous LBOs, acquisitions and mergers, top management, etc. B. Methodology In order to obtain values for recovery rates and deviations from absolute priority for the different classes of claimants I constructed a table for each company, containing a summary of its plan of reorganisation: 1) A description of the claims in terms of “secured”, “unsecured” and “equity” 10 11 Administrative claims were not considered in the analysis for two reasons: first, in most of the cases their value is still unknown as of the confirmation date; second, these claims always get paid, thus not incurring any write-downs or deviations from absolute priority (see Tashjian et al. (1996)). 2) The estimated allowed claims One should note the limitations that the use of the estimated allowed claims bring about. As pointed out by Weiss (1992), these values usually rely on management valuations that the Court accepts, unless a creditor manages to establish another amount through costly hearings; sometimes, the quantities involved are understated, as the Court might fail to provide the appropriate interest; also, the Court generally accepts management’s view on whether the classes of creditors are impaired 12, and so the creditors may think it is not worth the effort and cost to show otherwise. 3) The amounts received upon reorganisation, distributed by the sub-classes “cash”, “debt”, “preferred stock”, “shares” and “options”13 4) The amounts that should have been distributed to all claimants, had the absolute priority rules been enforced14, the percentage recovery rates and the percentage deviation from absolute priority rules. It should be noted that recoveries for 10 equity were obtained as a percentage of the ownership upon reorganisation, allowing for dilution. In this analysis I follow closely the same methodology as Franks & Torous (1989, 1994), LoPucki & Whitford (1990), Weiss (1990), Eberhart et al. (1990), Fabozzi et al. (1993) and Tashjian et al. (1996). C. Data analysis Table I describes the time-series distribution by filing date for the sample of 389 Chapter 11s, consisting of 135 firms with DIP financing, 191 firms without DIP financing and 63 cases where the result is unknown or still pending. For the complete cases, the companies were classified by type of bankruptcy outcome: independence preserved (65%), acquired or merged (13%), liquidated in Chapter 11 (17%), converted to Chapter 7 (4%) and dismissed (1%). When a firm commences a Chapter 11 proceeding, it is usually the result of a voluntary action of the management of the distressed company. However, creditors can also file an involuntary bankruptcy petition or even ask for the immediate liquidation of the firm, if the company is not paying its debts as they come due. An involuntary petition must be filed by a minimum of three creditors and the unsecured portions of their claims in aggregate should be at least $10,000 (see KPMG (1997, p. 323)). There is no requirement, though, that the debtor be insolvent or unable to pay his debts as they mature, as pointed out by Saft (1993). The firm will then either agree with the filing and file a voluntary petition, or ask the Court to move for dismissal, if the management thinks the creditors have no just cause. Another possible classification of different bankruptcies is in terms of prepackaged bankruptcies (pre-packs) and the more traditional (conventional) Chapter 11 cases. A pre-pack is a form of corporate restructuring where the terms of the reorganisation are negotiated outside the Court, between the debtor and the creditor (under Subsection 1126(b) of the Bankruptcy Code, 11 that permits negotiation between debtor and creditors prior to filing for bankruptcy). In order to become effective, the company must file a bankruptcy petition and a plan of reorganisation that has to be ratified by the Court, like a traditional Chapter 11. It is important to consider pre-packs and non-prepacks separately as far as Tashjian et al. (1996) found substantial differences between these two types of filing: prepackaged bankruptcies are less lengthy and involve larger recovery rates than conventional Chapter 11s. Table II presents the distribution of bankrupt companies by type of filing and bankruptcy outcome. They include 90% of voluntary filings and 22% of pre-packs. The most common case is a voluntary filing that is a non-prepack (69%) and the most unusual is an involuntary filing that is accepted by the company and followed by a prepack (1%). Chatterjee et al. (1998) noted that DIP firms are in less economic distress than non-DIP firms. Table III compares the two sub-samples, with DIP financing and without DIP financing, in terms of some selected financial characteristics, measured at the accounting year end prior to filing for Chapter 11. Firms that obtained new financing are generally more profitable, with larger values for revenue and income in terms of total assets. This table shows the incidence of equity committees in the sample of bankrupt firms as well. Equity committees seem to be more abundant in Chapter 11s with DIP financing, which indicates that equity has some value in these firms. Table III also displays the time spent in bankruptcy15 by the sample of Chapter 11 firms. Time in bankruptcy does not appear to be (significantly) much higher for firms with DIP financing (only in terms of medians), but these firms account for a smaller proportion of the pre-packs in the sample, that are less lengthy than traditional Chapter 11s. If I compute the time in bankruptcy for DIP firms and non-DIP firms, by type of filing, there are no significant differences.16 These results contrast with Elayan & Meyer (1999), who found the bankruptcy process to be less lengthy for DIP firms. 12 Table IV lists the DIP lenders for a sub-sample of 124 firms that obtained DIP financing. Chemical, GECC and CIT are the banks that are more involved in this market, although some financial institutions, like Foothill Capital, for example, are also well represented (with smaller average loans). This distribution agrees with the study by Chatterjee et al. (1998) of a sample of 55 firms with DIP financing, where those three banks were the most important ones as well. Also, Dhillon et al. (1996) report that, for 25 Chapter 11s with new financing in 1990-1993, 5.8% in value and 20.0% in number of new loans came from one bank only, Chemical, and 64.7% in value and 48.0% in number from three banks (General Electric Capital Corporation and CIT Group, besides Chemical), whereas my sample is more diversified with respect to the sources of funding. We can see that DIP financing is associated with a few number of liquidations: 24 (19%) out of 124 firms. Table V evidences the importance of DIP financing in terms of some selected financials, by type of filing. The average (median) loan considered in the sub-sample of firms with DIP financing is $91.0 ($35.0) million and its proportion of the total assets of the firm, measured at the year end prior to filing for Chapter 11, has a mean of 15.6% and a median of 11.3%.17 This compares with the study by Chatterjee et al. (1998) with a higher average loan size of $121.6 million. Dhillon et al. (1996) obtained a mean loan size of $75.0 million (median of $125.9 million) and the percentage of DIP financing on total assets of 11.1% (17.5%). Their sample has negative skewness, as oposed to the positive skewness of my sample, which implies that they have many higher values than those reported here, not only in size of DIP financing, but also in terms of its proportion of the firm’s assets. This extends to the value of the assets as well, where the means (medians) are $875.2 ($243.8) million in my sample and $461.0 ($1,318.0) million in their sample. Pre-packs show lower levels of DIP financing, with an average (median) loan of $54.9 ($35.0) million, which can be explained by the perspective of less time 13 spent in Chapter 1118 and so less need for new financing while in bankruptcy. Table V also refers to the days in bankruptcy until the firm gets DIP financing, with a mean of 78.6 and a median of 30.0 days. Though the variation is quite high (standard deviation=174.6), there is a concentration on the left-hand side of the distribution, implying that most of the firms are given the new loans shortly after filing for Chapter 11. This is corroborated by the first and third quartiles of the distribution. V. A. Results Recovery rates Recovery rates give the percentage of the face value of a creditor’s claim that is repaid upon reorganisation. In the case of equity-holders, recovery rates give the percentage of ownership upon reorganisation, allowing for dilution. In order to assess the role of DIP financing in terms of its contribution to the value of the firm, recovery rates were calculated for the several stakeholders involved - secured creditors, unsecured creditors and equity-holders. Table VI reports the results for the two groups of firms, with and without DIP financing. We can see for the total sample that recovery rates are usually higher for firms without DIP financing than for firms with DIP financing, but these values are not very significant, except for equity-holders. Average recovery rates for firms with DIP financing and without are, respectively, 93.3% and 90.7% for secured creditors, 48.0% and 55.5% for unsecured creditors, 10.9% and 20.8% for equity-holders. The lower recoveries for equity-holders suggest that there is no coalition between them and the DIP lender. In order to investigate these lower equity recovery rates, another alternative indicator was used: total payments to equity as a percentage of the total distribution to claimants. Despite retaining a smaller ownership in DIP firms, equity- 14 holders recoveries given by the new metric are not significantly different between DIP and non-DIP firms, which reflects the larger stock value of DIP firms. Some firms displaying a small amount of new financing can however affect this comparison. For a sub-sample of 25 conventional Chapter 11s with DIP financing in the amount of at least 20% of the estimated total debt, and 68 firms without DIP financing, we can see that creditors recover significantly more in the former firms. 19 This important result shows that the size of DIP financing does seem to lead to higher recovery rates for the claimants. This may be because firms with larger DIP loans (in proportion to firm size) will be subject to more monitoring from the lenders. Due to the possibility of erosion in the value of the collateral that usually secures the DIP loan, the new lender is likely to exert more monitoring the larger the loan, despite its super-priority status, in order to avoid incurring substantial losses (in case the value of the collateral becomes smaller than the amount of the loan). Adams (1995) also points out that more critical than the source or form of the new financing while in bankruptcy, it is the size that matters. This also agrees with Elayan & Meyer (1999), who found a stronger stock price response to the announcement of larger relative DIP loans. One can argue that one reason for creditors in these firms to recover more is the fact that they might be more solvent. For a sub-sample of 19 firms with DIP financing in the amount of at least 20% of the estimated total debt, the regressions of the recovery rates for secured and unsecured creditors on the percentage of income in terms of total assets (one measure of profitability) and the percentage of DIP financing in terms of the estimated total debt, produce the following results (variables in percentage, p-values in brackets): Income DIP value 1.035 * Total assets Estimatedtotal debt (0.156) (0.081) (0.032) UnsecuredCreditorsRecoveries 31.9 2.289 * N 19 R 2 37.7% (1) 15 Income DIP value 0.220 * Total assets Estimatedtotal debt (0.000) (0.924) (0.207) SecuredCreditorsRecoveries 85.6 - 0.045 * N 19 R 2 9.8% (2) Regression (1) shows that when controlled for firm solvency, the size of DIP financing (as a percentage of estimated total debt) does contribute positively to larger unsecured creditors’ recoveries. However, this is not the case in Regression (2), where the p-values are not significant. The sample of pre-packs is quite modest (14 firms) and so the fact that unsecured creditors in pre-packs with DIP financing recover significantly less than DIP nonprepacks should not be given much relevance. In fact, if I discard three cases where the unsecured creditors received at least 95.6% of their payments in shares, and recovered on average only 6.4% of their claims (with a median of 7.1%), the results are quite different: the mean (median) recovery rate is now 53.3% (58.2%), and these values are not significantly different from the non-DIP pre-packs (p-value=0.145 (0.195)). This analysis suggests a very optimistic valuation of the stock in those three firms at the time of the reorganisation plan. The following sub-sections deal with four additional issues related to recovery rates. In DIP firms, do creditors receive a larger proportion of their payments as equity because they believe in the quality certification role provided by the DIP lender? Do creditor recoveries violate absolute priority rules? Do creditors recover less in the event of a liquidation and how crucial was to have obtained DIP financing? Do secured creditors as a class have stronger bargaining power when the new financing was granted by a prepetition (secured) creditor? 16 A.1. The medium of exchange in the reorganisations Table VII sets out for each class of claimants in both Chapter 11s with DIP financing and without DIP financing, the percentage of the total payments received in the form of cash, debt, preferred stock, options and common stock. The classes considered are secured creditors, unsecured creditors and equity-holders. The majority of payments in firms with DIP financing is in the form of common stock (36.3%) and debt (32.5%), whereas in firms without DIP financing the bulk of the payments is in the form of debt (44.8%) and cash (27.1%). Unsecured creditors receive significantly more common stock and less debt in firms with DIP financing, showing their confidence in the performance of these firms after bankruptcy. Equity-holders get more options but less cash and common stock in the event of DIP financing. A.2. Deviations from absolute priority In the sub-sample of 72 Chapter 11s with DIP financing there are 23 cases where priority was held, 27 cases where priority was violated for unsecured creditors only and 22 cases where priority was violated for secured creditors, using Weiss’ (1990) classification. These results give an average incidence of deviations from absolute priority rules of 68.1%, including 39 cases (79.6%) where shareholders actually received some consideration. The pattern for the 100 Chapter 11s that did not obtain DIP financing is very similar: priority was held in 39 cases, priority was violated for unsecured creditors in 37 cases and for secured creditors in 35 cases. The average incidence of deviations from absolute priority is 61.0%, with equity receiving some consideration in 53 cases (86.9%). This compares with 77.8% and 85.7% cases, respectively, in Frank & Torous (1989), 78.4% and 93.1% in Weiss (1990), 96.2% and 80.0% in Fabozzi et al. (1993). These results suggest that there are less violations of absolute priority in large companies, which constitute the sample in the present 17 study, since the samples of the other authors are more diversified in terms of company size. DIP financing does then seem not to impact in the incidence of deviations from absolute priority. This observation supports Chatterjee et al. (1998), who showed that DIP financing is associated with a positive stock and bond price response, suggesting the absence of wealth transfers amongst the claimants. The magnitude of deviations from absolute priority rules is also not significantly different between the two groups of firms, as reported in Table VIII. Unsecured creditors and equity-holders gain on average, to the detriment of secured creditors. On average, deviations in DIP firms and non-DIP firms are, respectively, -4.2% and -3.3% for secured creditors, 3.6% and 0.2% for unsecured creditors, 0.6% and 3.1% for equity-holders. However, there is some weak evidence of a less positive deviation for equity-holders in DIP firms, which suggests that shareholders in firms without new financing are able to extract more value from the secured creditors than those in firms with new financing. This implies that there is no coalition between the old shareholders and the new lender in order to extract value from creditors. The consideration of non-prepacks with DIP financing in the amount of at least 20% of the estimated total debt produces negative average deviations for equity-holders, but this is not significantly different from zero (p-value=0.560). Interestingly, a pseudo-median company does not exhibit deviations from absolute priority. A.3. Recovery rates and liquidation In theory, one dissenting creditor can effectively prevent confirmation of a plan if he shows that it does not grant him at least what he would get in a liquidation; in practice, however, this is very difficult to prove. Moreover, because the valuations are based on a going concern framework, and so higher than in a liquidation setting, it is unlikely that the creditor could get more otherwise. In this way, Schwarcz (1996) argues that a cram18 down is very important as a threat to induce junior classes to accept a plan of reorganisation proposed by more senior creditors or the debtor-in-possession because of this risk of actually ending up getting less. Ravid & Sundgren (1998) in fact report very modest recoveries for a sample of 61 small Finnish firms that filed for bankruptcy between 1982 and 1992 and were liquidated in a piecemeal liquidation. Creditors recovered on average 35.6% of their claims, with a median recovery rate of 33.7%. So, do Chapter 11 creditors really get less in a liquidation? I compared recovery rates between 126 firms that reorganised successfully from Chapter 11 and 21 firms that were liquidated (in either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11). Only conventional Chapter 11s were considered. In all 21 cases of liquidation, secured creditors always received full payment or the collateral, and equity-holders always recovered nothing. Figure 1 provides recovery rates for unsecured creditors. Panel A shows unquestionably that unsecured creditors do recover substantially more (pvalue=0.029) when firms reorganise (mean=49.1%, median=39.3%) than when they liquidate (mean=28.7%, median=14.1%), which legitimates the credibility of the cramdown threat. In addition, Panel B indicates that unsecured creditors in firms without DIP financing receive substantially less (p-value=0.043) in a liquidation (mean=28.6%, median=11.7%) than in a successful reorganisation (mean=49.2%, median=42.5%). This also happens with DIP firms, but the values are not significant due to the small subsample (5 firms) of DIP firms that were liquidated. These results show that unsecured creditors do recover more in a successful reorganisation than in a liquidation. A.4. When the pre-petition lender provides DIP financing Sometimes the debtor-in-possession lender already has a pre-petition relationship with the debtor. By providing new financing, he is trying both to protect his collateral base and give an appearance of normality towards the debtor’s customers and suppliers, to 19 ensure that the going concern of the collateral is maintained. At the same time, he is avoiding the concession of a stronger negotiating position to the manager resulting from the possibility of a new lender, while avoiding making concessions to the debtor that might weaken his existing claims. DIP lenders are often pre-petition creditors, well informed with respect to the value of the firm. In Table V an average of 42.7% of DIP lenders were pre-petition (usually secured) creditors. In pre-packs the mean is even higher, at 63.2%. The most advantageous aspect of DIP financing for a DIP lender is perhaps the possibility of collateralising his pre-petition claims with property collateralising his postpetition claims (Cott, 1992). In this way, the collateral for the lender’s pre-petition claims secures the collateral for his post-petition claims and vice-versa, and he can effectively condition post-petition financing on the concession of additional collateral for his prepetition loan.20 Also, when the new financing is provided by existing secured lenders, they sometimes have to prime themselves (Kleiman, 1992); in exchange, they can ask for (a) the conversion of their pre-petition claim into post-petition and (b) the interest payments on pre-petition debt to be continuously paid through the bankruptcy period. For example, Servam Corp./Service America Corp. had a pre-existing credit agreement of $70 million with General Electric Capital Corp. This lender agreed to provide postpetition financing of an additional $35 million conditional on the consideration of the full amount of his loans - $105 million - as DIP financing. A different concession was made to F&C International, where Star Bank NA, a former creditor, lent $17.65 million as DIP financing in exchange for the full payment of his pre-petition loan on the effective date. This evidence supports LoPucki & Whitford’s (1990) suggestion that if the postpetition lender is a former creditor, his bargaining power will be strengthened. Table V reveals that in 7.3% of the firms with DIP financing there was either a situation where some liens were primed as a result of the new loans, or the DIP lenders benefited from 20 increased seniority of their pre-petition loans. One should then expect to find higher recovery rates and more positive (less negative) deviations from absolute priority rules for pre-petition (secured) creditors that are also DIP financing providers than for secured creditors when we have a new lender, in firms with DIP financing. Recovery rates for all classes of claimants (secured creditors, unsecured creditors and equity-holders) and absolute priority rules do not seem to be significantly affected by the fact that a pre-petition lender is a post-petition lender as well (results not reported). However, the means of payment are affected. Old lenders that also provided DIP financing get a significantly (p-value=0.063) larger proportion of cash (mean=47.5%, median=29.5%) and a smaller proportion of debt (mean=40.5%, median=18.7%) as a means of payment settlement than in the case when the DIP lender does not have a pre-petition relation with the DIP firm (mean=26.0% and median=3.9%, for cash; mean=63.8% and median=84.7%, for debt). In some way, this can actually be considered as a larger recovery rate for these creditors that are both pre-petition and post-petition lenders, because the debt is usually over-valued. The amount of the lender’s commitment is not necessarily constant throughout the bankruptcy process, as either the firm or the lender may decide to change it. Here are a few examples: Value Merchants, Inc. obtained a $60 million loan from Congress Financial and raised it to $65 million; Smith Corona Corp. reduced its loan from Chemical Bank and Bank of America Illinois from $24 million to $10 million; MEI Diversified saw its $10 million loan cancelled by LaSalle National Bank; Citibank granted Leslie Fay Companies, Inc. a $150 million loan, and reduced it to $80 million when the company obtained a new $80 million loan from First National Bank of Boston. Table V indicates that in 8.9% of the DIP firms, the new loan was either terminated or the provider was replaced. 21 In some cases, however, the new lender with a previous relationship with the debtor may voluntarily agree to forgive the post-petition loan. This happened with Physicians Clinical Laboratories, Inc., where a group of pre-petition secured lenders forgave $9.8 million in DIP financing. Also, Trans World Airlines, Inc. obtained a loan of $251 million from Icahn & Co. units (belonging to his CEO) and never paid it back. In this case, however, the loan did not get super-priority status. In pre-packs there were no situations of DIP financing terminated or provider changed, nor DIP financing with priming liens or increased seniority of pre-petition loans. B. DIP financing and its contribution to successful reorganisations Chatterjee et al. (1998) found that DIP firms are more likely to reorganise with the independence preserved than non-DIP firms (72% and 54%, respectively), they are less likely to merge or be acquired (8%, as opposed to 18%) and liquidate less (10%, as opposed to 16%).21 Dhillon et al. (1996) got more successful reorganisations with DIP financing than without (medians of 85% and 50%, respectively). Elayan & Meyer (1999) also report more successful reorganisations with DIP financing than without (averages of 90.0% and 78.6%, respectively). This evidence suggests that the concession of DIP financing has a positive impact on the likelihood of a successful emergence from bankruptcy. Figure 2 tries to answer two questions. Firstly, given that a firm obtained (did not obtain) DIP financing, what is the probability that it will reorganise successfully or liquidate (Panels B and D)? This is Chatterjee et al.’ (1998), Dhillon et al.’ (1996) and Elayan & Meyer’s (1999) point. Secondly, given that a firm reorganised successfully (was liquidated), what is the probability that it obtained (did not obtain) DIP financing (Panels A and C)? 22 I compared my sample of 135 firms that obtained DIP financing with 191 firms that did not receive DIP financing, by type of filing and bankruptcy outcome. The values are given as a proportion of the total cases in each box. Panels A and C show that there are significantly fewer (p-value=0.000) liquidations than successful reorganisations in Chapter 11, especially in the case of pre-packaged bankruptcies (28.5% liquidations in traditional Chapter 11s and 2.7% liquidations in pre-packs). For firms that emerged successfully, there are significantly fewer (p-value=0.000) firms with DIP financing than without DIP financing in prepackaged bankruptcies (31.0% of firms with DIP financing), and no significant difference (p-value=0.463) in conventional Chapter 11s (48.1% of firms with DIP financing). Also, pre-packs use significantly less (p-value=0.050) DIP financing than non-prepacks (31.5% of firms with DIP financing in pre-packs versus 44.3% of firms with DIP financing in conventional Chapter 11s). The fact that pre-packs are less lengthy makes new financing during the reorganisation process not so vital as with traditional Chapter 11s. For conventional Chapter 11s that were liquidated, the proportion of firms with DIP financing (34.7%) is significantly smaller (p-value=0.000) than the proportion of firms without DIP financing. Panels B and D add that in nonprepacks, DIP bankruptcies are significantly more successful (p-value=0.054) than nonDIP bankruptcies (77.7% versus 66.7%). This evidence demonstrates the important result that if a firm did not get new financing in bankruptcy, the probability that it was liquidated is substantially larger. B.1. Failure to obtain DIP financing In order to assess the role of DIP financing as a deterrent to liquidation, one should try to separate the cases where firms sought for new financing and failed to obtain it from those where firms did not try to get DIP financing. Action Auto Rental Inc. and Child World are examples of firms that claimed to have been liquidated because they failed to 23 attract new financing during bankruptcy. Since it is extremely difficult to determine for sure whether the absence of DIP financing indicates failure to obtain it or just a decision not to get it at all, one can only wonder about the magnitude of the probabilities involved. Using the values for conventional Chapter 11s from Figure 2 - Panels (A) and (B), we can obtain the upper bounds for P(DIP financing failure/Successful reorganisation) and P(DIP financing failure/Liquidation) as 0.519 and 0.653, respectively, which are significantly different from each other at the 5.4% level. This suggests that there is a larger scope for cases of a failed DIP financing in liquidations that in successful reorganisations. We can reproduce this analysis for pre-packaged bankruptcies as well, using the values from Figure 2 - Panels (C) and (D). However, due to the very small sample of liquidations (2) it is not possible to make precise extrapolations. B.2. Prediction of successful reorganisations Since Altman’s (1968) Z-score model a whole panoply of authors have studied different distress classification models. These studies concentrate on the assessment of probabilities of a firm going bankrupt, according to some relevant financial ratios. In this section I examine a different issue: Once in Chapter 11, what is the probability that a firm will reorganise successfully (either with the independence preserved or through an acquisition in bankruptcy)? What are the main ingredients for a successful reorganisation? Table IX presents two logistic regressions that try to assess the probability of a firm successfully emerging from bankruptcy. The first one is for the whole sample of both firms with DIP and without DIP financing. The second one is for firms with DIP financing only. The first logistic regression22 shows that the probability of success increases with the 24 size of the firm (measured by the logarithm of its liabilities), which suggests that the claimants stand to lose a lot if the firm does not reorganise successfully. Obtaining DIP financing is a positive factor, as argued by Dhillon et al. (1996), Chatterjee et al. (1998) and Elayan & Meyer (1999), and also seen previously, but if there is any need to prime existing liens or the seniority of pre-petition loans has to be increased, the overall effect is negative. Pre-packs and involuntary filings usually have positive outcomes, implying that the firm filed for bankruptcy before there was much time to erode its value. Chairman changes during bankruptcy and equity committee appointments impact positively in the likelihood of success of a bankrupt firm. However, the appointment of a trustee suggests that the firm is not very sound. In the second logistic regression 23 we can see that the more time it takes to obtain DIP financing, the more likely is a firm to reorganise successfully in Chapter 11. This implies that creditors should not agree to a fast DIP financing concession, and judges should not grant new loans without careful analysis of the situation of the bankrupt firms. Changes of chairman, the appointment of an equity committee and involuntary filings do not seem to explain successful reorganisations with DIP financing.24 C. Management turnover Chatterjee et al. (1998) compared CEO turnover (and also president turnover) for 16 cases of DIP financing with Hotchkiss’ (1995) results, and obtained a significantly lower level for this characteristic in study.25 They also found ample monitoring by DIP financing lenders, who charge large spreads and fees. Table X shows that there is significantly more CEO and chairman turnover with DIP firms, in three different circumstances: before & during, during and after bankruptcy.26 This result contrasts with Chatterjee et al. (1998) and can be supported by Gilson’s 25 (1989, 1990) work. Gilson (1989) found that bank lenders are often responsible for management turnover in financially distressed firms. Gilson (1990) reported a larger influence of bank lenders over investment and financing policies of firms in distress, especially if they are turnaround experts. In order to assess the disciplining role of the new lender, I compared management turnover (changes of CEO and Chairman) during bankruptcy between a sub-sample of 53 DIP firms that obtained new financing from pre-petition creditors and a sub-sample of 54 DIP firms that obtained new financing from one of the top five banks (in terms of DIP financing concession in the present study). The results (not reported) are quite significant (p-value=0.026): on average, there are 35.8% changes in top management when the DIP lender already has a relation with the debtor, as opposed to 64.8% when we have a new lender. One could think that pre-petition lenders are better informed about the profitability of the firm than new lenders. In this way, we would see better firms obtaining new financing from pre-petition lenders and so the management turnover would be smaller in these cases. I then compared the ratio of income to total assets prior to filing for bankruptcy between a sub-sample of 38 firms that obtained DIP financing from pre-existing creditors and a sub-sample of 32 firms where the lender was one of the top five banks. The ratios are 1.4 and 1.6, respectively, and are not significantly different from each other (p-value=0.552). These results seem to support the disciplining function of a new bank lender with some DIP financing expertise during bankruptcy. D. Bankruptcy venue and time in bankruptcy The bankruptcy venue has been the subject of some discussions in the past. Weiss’ (1990) evidence suggests that it can actually pay the debtors to “shop around” and choose the jurisdiction they think will be more favourable for them, like the Southern 26 District of New York, for instance. Betker (1995) argues that the venue of a case in New York does not affect the distribution that equity gets, when other firm characteristics are taken into account. Skeel (1998) talks about the district of Delaware and the Southern District of New York. He says that in New York, the bankruptcy processes are extremely slow as opposed to Delaware, where it takes the firms less time to emerge. Delaware’s specialities are pre-packs and speed27. The coefficient of correlation between a venue in New York and time in bankruptcy is significantly positive 19.4% (p-value=0.001; N=284). In the case of a venue in Delaware, this correlation is also significant, but negative: 28.9% (p-value=0.000; N=284). If I consider traditional Chapter 11s only, the time in bankruptcy in Delaware is significantly smaller than in the other bankruptcy venues (mean=457.3 days in Delaware and mean=656.1 days in other venues, p-value=0.019; median=420.5 days in Delaware and median=531.5 days in other venues, pvalue=0.009). Delaware is also faster for pre-packs, at least in terms of medians (mean=82.9 days in Delaware and mean=116.8 days in other venues, p-value=0.188; median=42.0 days in Delaware and median=73.0 days in other venues, p-value=0.018). E. Determinants of DIP financing The importance of obtaining DIP financing has already been established. But what are the factors that influence the concession and size of DIP financing? Table XI presents the results of two regressions. The first one is logistic and tries to assess the determinants of DIP financing. The second one is OLS and explains the magnitude of DIP financing in proportion of the estimated total debt in terms of some relevant variables. In the logistic regression28, we can see that the more profitable a firm is, measured in terms of the proportion of income and revenue in the total assets, the more likely it is to obtain DIP financing. Equity committees, which can be viewed as a proxy for firm 27 solvency, as they are authorised only when equity has some value, seem to be more abundant in Chapter 11s with DIP financing. This evidence supports Chatterjee et al. (1998), who found DIP firms more profitable, and also some previous results in this paper. Pre-packs are negatively associated with DIP financing, as seen before. However, some other qualitative values increase the probability of DIP financing. Changes of CEO during bankruptcy are positively related with DIP financing, as previously discussed, and so is the choice of Delaware as the bankruptcy venue. During the 80’s the New York district was very popular amongst large debtors as the choice for the bankruptcy venue. Skeel (1998) states that since the beginning of 1990, Delaware has surpassed New York as the bankruptcy venue choice for large companies. Delaware is a “debtor-friendly” district, as far as judges usually approve “first day orders” (use of cash collateral, payment to employees and DIP financing) almost immediately, without holding a hearing to give creditors an opportunity to respond. In fact, the coefficient of correlation between a venue in Delaware and time to obtain DIP financing is -17.1% (p-value=0.074; N=110)29. This fact is significant, especially because many firms that file for bankruptcy in Delaware are domiciled (incorporated) there but do not necessarily have their corporate headquarters in that state. In the OLS regression, the size of DIP loans in terms of the estimated total debt decreases with the total debt of the firm (given by its log-liabilities), and increases with the profitability of the firm, measured by its current ratio and income as a proportion of the assets. When a firm has a large proportion of its assets encumbered, it should be more difficult to obtain new financing once in Chapter 11, as this is essentially asset-based. The negative coefficient for the proportion of secured debt in terms of fixed assets 28 corroborates this idea. Priming liens and a pre-petition lender granting the new financing are positively associated with the size of DIP financing, and so is obtaining new financing from one of the top five banks (in terms of total amount of DIP financing provided in my sample). Activities that need larger amounts of DIP financing seem to be manufacturing consumers and retail. This agrees with Chatterjee et al. (1998), who found that the companies with DIP financing are mostly wholesale and retail firms, as they need working capital to continue their activities. VI. Conclusion Debtor-in-possession financing does seem to have a positive role in the bankruptcy process. Its presence does not significantly affect recovery rates and deviations from absolute priority, but when its size is considerable there is a positive impact on recovery rates. This evidence, together with the fact that DIP financing contributes decisively towards a successful reorganisation in Chapter 11, by lowering the probability of a liquidation, explains the positive stock and bond price response found by Chatterjee et al. (1998) and Dhillon et al. (1996). DIP firms show higher management turnover, especially if the DIP lender has no pre-petition relation with the debtor-in-possession. This fact is consistent with Gilson’s (1989, 1990) disciplining and monitoring role of the new lender and contrasts with the findings of Chatterjee et al. (1998). Judges should be more careful when agreeing to DIP financing. They should refrain from hastening their (favourable) decision, as quick approvals have been shown to be associated with liquidations. 29 Appendix A: Types of DIP financing “Ordinary course” unsecured credit Under Subsection 364(a) the Court may authorise the debtor to obtain unsecured credit in the ordinary course of his business. This covers utilities, inventory, rent and freight charges, but not debt service, buying a capital asset, unusually large purchases of supplies or any advance of funds, under the supposition of either buying the debtor in the event of a reorganisation plan or assisting in the liquidation of the business. This claim will be treated as an administrative priority which is the lowest priority for postpetition debt, and is usually confined to trade suppliers. If the debtor wants some credit out of the ordinary course of his business, Subsections 364(b), (c) or (d) should be seen instead. Credit outside the “ordinary course” Under Subsection 364(b) the debtor-in-possession is authorised to obtain unsecured credit outside the ordinary course of his business, unless the Court orders otherwise, to the extent that the repayment can be a priority over any or all administrative expenses. In practice, lenders will always seek protection for their claims beyond the administrative priority, and so they will attempt to proceed under the following sections. Secured post-petition credit In case the company cannot obtain new financing as an administrative priority, the Court can then grant additional protection in the form of a lien on collateral of the debtor. The debtor has to present a record demonstrating that alternative sources of funding were sought. There are three possibilities for such protection: 30 a) Super-priority rights, under Subsection 364(c)(1) of the Code, meaning it has priority over administrative expenses and pre-petition unsecured claims; it grants a first claim on the proceeds of all unencumbered assets and also on the residual proceeds from the liquidation of assets with pre-existing liens (usually, a carve-out for a limited amount of legal fees is provided). b) Lien on unencumbered assets of the debtor, under Subsection 364(c)(2) of the Code, not subject to pre-petition liens. This option is seldom used as far as, by the time a debtor files for Chapter 11, he usually has few remaining unencumbered assets. c) Junior lien, under Subsection 364(c)(3), on property already encumbered. This approach is used only if there is substantial equity or as a supplement to other sources of repayment considered in Section 364 of the Code. Priming liens In case the debtor has a fully liened balance sheet, i.e. a high level of encumbered assets, obtaining debtor-in-possession financing might be difficult, because of lack of protection afforded to the lender. However, it is still possible to get new financing under the provisions of Subsection 364(d) of the Bankruptcy Code. The existing lien-holders may then be primed (effectively subordinated) to new debt, if and only if they are adequately protected, providing there is substantial equity in the collateral. As Fitch Research (1991) points out, adequate protection, however, does not require timely payment of such creditors. This new lien - the priming lien or super-priority lien - is then equal or senior in priority to the existing liens on those assets. The debtor bears the burden of proof on this matter: he has to prove that the secured creditor is oversecured, and so he will not be harmed by his position being subordinated in this way. Another possibility can be the provision of adequate protection by giving liens on different assets, or even paying current interest. 31 Appendix B: The ranking of claims in bankruptcy Upon the emergence from bankruptcy, claims get satisfied according to their rank in the hierarchy. Gilson (1995) presents the relative position of all claims in the queue for the distribution of the firm value. 1. Secured claims 2. Super-priority claims 3. Priority claims Administrative expenses Wages, salaries or commissions Employee benefit claims Claims against facilities that store grain or fish produce Consumer deposits Alimony and child support Tax claims Unsecured claims based on commitment to a federal depositary institutions regulatory agency 4. General unsecured claims 5. Preferred stock 6. Common stock 32 References Adams, Charles W., 1995, New capital for bankruptcy reorganizations: It’s the amount that counts, Northwestern University Law Review 89(2), 411-444. 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Dhillon, Upinder S., Thomas Noe and Gabriel G. Ramirez, 1996, Debtor-in-possession financing and the resolution of uncertainty in Chapter 11 reorganizations, Working paper (New York Salomon Center). Eberhart, Allan C., William T. Moore and Rodney L. Roenfeldt, 1990, Security pricing and deviations from the absolute priority rule in bankruptcy proceedings, Journal of Finance 45(5), 1457-1469. 33 Elayan, Fayez A. and Thomas O. Meyer, 1999, Market reaction to announcements of debtor-in-possession financing: An empirical investigation of bankruptcy outcome, duration and loan characteristics, Working paper (Massey University). Fabozzi, Frank J., Jane Tripp Howe, Takashi Makabe and Toshihide Sudo, 1993, Recent evidence on the distribution patterns in Chapter 11 reorganizations, Journal of Fixed Income 2(4), 6-23. Fitch Research, 1991, Debtor-in-Possession Loan Rating Criteria, Fitch Investor Services, Inc., New York. Franks, Julian R. and Walter N. 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Abraham and Stefan Sundgren, 1998, The comparative efficiency of small-firm bankruptcies: A study of the US and Finnish bankruptcy codes, Financial Management 27(4), 28-40. Rochelle, Michael R., 1990, Post-filing loans to the Chapter 11 debtor: Good money after bad, Banking Law Journal 107(4), 344-351. Rohman, Mark C. and Michael A. Policano, 1990, Financing Chapter 11 companies in the 1990s, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 3(2), 96-101. Saft, Stuart M., 1993, A primer on Chapter 11 reorganization, Real Estate Finance Journal 8(3), 8-14. Schwarcz, Steven L., 1985, Basics of business reorganization in bankruptcy, Journal of Commercial Bank Lending 68(3), 36-44. Schwarcz, Steven L., 1996, Rethinking a corporation’s obligations to creditors, Cardozo 35 Law Review 17(5), 647-690. Shrader, Mark J. and Kent A. Hickman, 1993, Economic issues in bankruptcy and reorganization, Journal of Applied Business Research 9(3), 110-118. Skeel, David A., Jr., 1998, Bankruptcy judges and bankruptcy venue: Some thoughts on Delaware, Delaware Law Review 1(1), 1-45. Tashjian, Elizabeth, Ronald C. Lease and John J. McConnel, 1996, Prepacks: An empirical analysis of prepackaged bankruptcies, Journal of Financial Economics 40, 135-162. Weiss, Lawrence A., 1990, Bankruptcy resolution: Direct costs and violation of priority of claims, Journal of Financial Economics 27, 285-314. Weiss, Lawrence A., 1992, Bankruptcy in corporate America: Direct costs and enforcement of claims, Journal of Legal Economics 2(2), 79-94. 36 Endnotes 1 However, because they considered larger loans than I did, there were not many cases where obtaining a small amount of DIP financing or not getting anything at all would not make much difference in terms of the abnormal returns of the securities of such firms. 2 In this paper a firm “reorganises successfully” when it emerges from bankruptcy with either its independence preserved or is acquired or merged. The reason why mergers and acquisitions are considered as a successful outcome is because the characteristics of the claims settlement are more similar to those firms that organised independently than to those that were liquidated. 3 R. H. Macy & Co., for instance, received an interim DIP financing of $60 million two days after filing for bankruptcy, and two weeks later the Court approved its $600 million DIP financing line; Wherehouse Entertainment, Inc., on the other hand, got its interim financing of $30 million 50 days after the filing, and the final approval one month later. 4 The debtor-in-possession can also use the cash that is collateral for the secured claims. Miller et al. (1990) say that the debtor has to prove that the secured parties’ interests in the cash are or can be adequately protected. 5 This study is contemporary to mine, and so we reached our conclusions independently. 6 However, they did not study pre-packs and non-prepacks separately, and so their results may suffer from some sample bias (i.e. the sample of DIP firms may have comparatively more pre-packs than the sample of conventional Chapter 11s). 7 This restriction conditions the results of my analysis to large publicly-traded Chapter 11s. 37 8 When a firm filed for Chapter 11 more than once, all its filings were treated separately. My sample includes 15 “Chapter 22s”, i.e. 15 firms filed twice for Chapter 11 from 1986 to 1997. 9 It should be noted, although, that this procedure provides only a lower bound estimate in the majority of the cases, as far as the options under consideration are essentially American and not European. However, the absence of dividends until maturity makes this point irrelevant. 10 The category “Equity” includes preferred stock, options, rights, warrants and common stock. 11 The Bankruptcy Code provides a classification for the different types of creditors and the treatment of their claims (see Appendix B and also Miller et al. (1990)). 12 If a class of creditors receives less than payment in full on its claim, the class is impaired; in that case a plan of reorganisation cannot be confirmed over its objection, except for a cram-down (see Subsections 1123(a)(2) & (3)). Subsection 1129(b) allows cram-down as to any dissenting class, as long as the Court finds that the “nonconsensual plan” does not discriminate unfairly, and is fair and equitable, with respect to each class of claims or interests that is impaired under, and has not accepted the plan. In other words, the absolute priority rule holds for the dissenting class and for more junior classes. In this way, the non-assenting class is forced to accept the proceeds that it would have the right to, had the firm been liquidated instead. 13 The category “Options” includes options, rights and warrants. 14 The fair and equitable requirement mentioned in Subsection 1129(b) of the Code is usually referred to as the absolute priority rule. Under this rule, a plan should be fair 38 and equitable even if unsecured classes of creditors do not realise the full value of their claims, providing no class junior to them receives or retains anything on account of their claims or interests. This rule is however qualified, as far as it only applies when there is a class of claimants that is impaired under the reorganisation plan and has not accepted it. 15 The time spent in reorganisation is measured from the filing date to the date that the plan of reorganisation is confirmed by the judge of the bankruptcy Court, regardless of the outcome. 16 For pre-packs: mean=133.1 (median=69.0) days for 22 DIP firms and mean=87.5 (median=46.0) days for 49 non-DIP firms, p-value=0.183 (0.274); for conventional Chapter 11s: mean=601.7 (median=483.5) days for 86 DIP firms and mean=619.3 (median=494.0) days for 91 non-DIP firms, p-value=0.783 (0.761). 17 There is a significantly positive correlation of 62.7% (p-value=0.000; N=105) between the amount of DIP financing and the size of the firm, given by its total assets, measured at the year end prior to filing for Chapter 11. This suggests that larger firms are able to obtain bigger amounts of DIP financing. 18 We should, note, however that in pre-packs there is a substitution of time spent in Court by time spent negotiating prior to the filing, as documented by Tashjian et al. (1996). 19 Smaller proportions made this comparison not significant at conventional levels. 20 The Court generally performs a test for the approval of cross-collateralisation clauses: (a) the debtor’s business operations would not survive if it were not for the proposed financing; (b) the debtor cannot obtain alternative financing on acceptable terms; (c) the 39 lender would not accept less preferential terms; (d) the proposed financing is in the best interest of the creditors. 21 Chatterjee et al. (1998) also found that firms with DIP financing show a significant larger probability of not being involved in posterior filings. In my sample of 135 firms with DIP financing and 191 firms without DIP financing, seven DIP firms and eight nonDIP firms filed for bankruptcy again, suggesting no meaningful differences in the probability of subsequent filings for Chapter 11. 22 The overall accuracy of this logistic model is 90.8%, with 93.0% correct predictions for firms that successfully emerged from bankruptcy and 82.5% correct predictions for firms that were liquidated, with the optimal cut-off of 50%. 23 This logistic model has an overall accuracy of 91.2%, with 96.0% correct predictions for firms that successfully emerged from bankruptcy and 70.6% correct predictions for firms that were liquidated, using the optimal cut-off of 45%. 24 Curiously, obtaining DIP financing from top banks (in terms of total amount of DIP financing in my sample - Chemical Bank, General Electric Capital Corp., CIT Group/Bus Cred, Bankers Trust and Foothill Capital Corp.) does not make it more/less likely for a firm to successfully reorganise. This shows that the reputation of the lender does not influence the bankruptcy outcome for a DIP firm. 25 As pointed out before, one should note that this comparison may not be fair, as Hothckiss’ sample might have some cases of DIP financing as well, and so the samples are not necessarily independent. 26 CEO and chairman turnover before filing for bankruptcy are not significantly different for my sample of bankrupt firms with and without DIP financing. 40 27 There is a high correlation of 35.2% (p-value=0.000; N=326) between a venue in Delaware and pre-packs. 28 This logistic model has an overall accuracy of 70.4%, with 70.8% correct predictions for firms with DIP financing and 70.1% correct predictions for firms without DIP financing, using the optimal cut-off of 40%. 29 New York displays an insignificant positive correlation of 10.8% (p-value=0.264, N=110). 41 Table I: Time-series distribution of bankruptcies by filing date Firm bankruptcies by year and bankruptcy outcome. The figures are based on 135 Chapter 11s with DIP financing, 191 Chapter 11s without DIP financing and 63 unknown or pending cases. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. Years 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Total Independence Acquired or merged Liquidated in preserved Chapter 11 DIP Non-DIP DIP Non-DIP DIP Non-DIP 1 1 1 1 3 1 8 6 8 13 1 2 3 15 28 1 5 4 7 10 24 1 2 2 7 12 18 6 4 4 10 8 1 2 4 3 13 10 6 1 4 3 12 9 4 1 3 1 5 6 1 3 87 (65%) 125 (66%) 22 (16%) 18 (9%) 17 (13%) 40 (21%) Converted to Chapter 7 DIP Non-DIP 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 6 (4%) 7 (4%) Dismissed DIP 1 1 1 3 (2%) Non-DIP 1 1 (0%) Sub-total DIP 1 0 1 1 9 21 14 18 18 24 22 6 135 Non-DIP 0 1 4 14 21 41 35 28 13 14 11 9 191 Unkn/ Pending Total 1 2 0 4 2 8 2 4 2 6 9 23 63 2 3 5 19 32 70 51 50 33 44 42 40 389 42 Table II: Distribution of bankruptcies by type of filing Firm bankruptcies by type of filing and bankruptcy outcome. The figures are based on 135 Chapter 11s with DIP financing and 191 Chapter 11s without DIP financing. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. Type of filing Voluntary Pre-pack Non-Prepack Total Involuntary Pre-pack Non-Prepack Total Independence preserved DIP Non-DIP Acquired or merged DIP Non-DIP Liquidated in Chapter 11 DIP Non-DIP Converted to Chapter 7 DIP Non-DIP Dismissed Sub-total DIP Non-DIP DIP Non-DIP Total 15 66 81 40 65 105 6 14 20 6 12 18 17 17 1 34 35 1 5 6 7 7 3 3 1 1 22 105 127 47 119 166 69 224 293 1 5 6 3 17 20 2 2 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 1 7 8 3 22 25 4 29 33 43 Table III: Financial ratios and other characteristics Selected characteristics at year end prior to filing for Chapter 11, in successful reorganisations. A firm reorganises successfully when it emerges from bankruptcy with either its independence preserved or is acquired or merged. The figures are based on 135 Chapter 11s with DIP financing and 191 Chapter 11s without DIP financing. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. P-values are shown in brackets. Bankruptcy outcome Reorganisation Mean Median a Current assets over current liabilities DIP Non-DIP 94 131 1.4 1.2 (0.430) 1.1 0.8 (0.030) Total assets over total liabilities DIP Non-DIP 95 134 1.2 1.1 (0.446) 1.1 1.0 (0.259) Face value of long-term debt ($m) DIP Non-DIP 94 133 339.0 264.3 (0.360) 92.1 81.1 (0.432) Face value of total liabilities ($m) DIP Non-DIP 135 191 726.7 1,052.970 (0.219) 191.2 225.0 (0.133) Revenue over total assets DIP Non-DIP 93 132 1.4 0.9 (0.000) 1.3 0.7 (0.000) Incomea over total assets DIP Non-DIP 94 132 -0.1 -0.2 (0.081) -0.1 -0.1 (0.070) Equity committee appointed (%) DIP Non-DIP 109 143 20.2 9.8 (0.025) 0.0 0.0 (0.020) Time in bankruptcy (days) DIP Non-DIP 108 140 506.3 433.2 (0.184) 457.0 313.5 (0.050) Income is Earnings Before Interest, Depreciation and Taxes (EBIDT). 44 Table IV: Characteristics of DIP lenders DIP financing providers by amount, number of loans, average loan and number (%)a of liquidations. The figures are based on 124 Chapter 11s with DIP financing from January 1986 to December 1997. DIP financing providers Bank America Bus Cred Bank of NY Bankers Trust Chase Manhatan Chemical Bank CIT Group/Bus Cred Citibank Citicorp USA, Inc. Congress Financial Corp. First Nat Bank Boston Foothill Capital Corp. General Electric Capital Corp. LaSalle National Bank Manufacturers Hanover Trust Co. Wells Fargo Secured Lenders Othersb Unknown Total a Amount ($m) 220.000 199.000 605.000 275.900 4,586.000 1,081.000 225.000 110.000 204.973 69.000 489.550 1,439.000 25.000 238.200 202.000 70.800 1,130.300 110.000 11,280.723 Number of loans 2 3 5 4 10 16 2 2 8 3 13 10 2 4 2 4 30 4 124 Average loan ($m) 110.000 66.333 121.000 68.975 458.600 67.563 112.500 55.000 25.622 23.000 37.658 143.900 12.500 59.550 101.000 17.700 37.677 27.500 90.974 Number (%) of liquidations 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 1 (20%) 1 (25%) 0 (0%) 7 (44%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 2 (25%) 0 (0%) 4 (31%) 1 (10%) 0 (0%) 1 (25%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 6 (20%) 1 (25%) 24 (19%) In terms of the number of loans provided by each DIP lender. “Others” include BT Commercial Corp., Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, CIBC, Continental Bank, ITT Comm Fin Corp, LTCB Japan, Mellon Bank NA, Morgan Guaranty Trust, National Bank of Canada, NCNB, Norwest Business Credit, Inc, Pittsburgh National Bank, Societe Generale SA, Star Bank NA, Sterling National Bank & Trust Co NY and Transamerica Bus Cred Corp. b 45 Table V: Characteristics of DIP financing by type of filing DIP financing and its importance in terms of some selected characteristics. Total assets and total liabilities are measured at year end prior to filing for Chapter 11. Estimated total debt and total distribution are measured at the time of the reorganisation. The figures are based on 135 Chapter 11s with DIP financing from January 1986 to December 1997. Panel A: Pre-packs DIP financing ($m) DIP financing / Total assets (%) DIP financing / Total liabilities (%) DIP financing / Estimated total debt (%) Days until DIP financing DIP financing from pre-petition lenders (%) DIP financing terminated or provider changed (%) DIP financing with priming liens or increased seniority of pre-petition loans (%) Panel B: Non-Prepacks DIP financing ($m) DIP financing / Total assets (%) DIP financing / Total liabilities (%) DIP financing / Estimated total debt (%) Days until DIP financing DIP financing from pre-petition lenders (%) DIP financing terminated or provider changed (%) DIP financing with priming liens or increased seniority of pre-petition loans (%) Panel C: Total DIP financing ($m) DIP financing / Total assets (%) DIP financing / Total liabilities (%) DIP financing / Estimated total debt (%) Days until DIP financing DIP financing from pre-petition lenders (%) DIP financing terminated or provider changed (%) DIP financing with priming liens or increased seniority of pre-petition loans (%) Mean 54.9 17.2 14.6 21.2 42.1 63.2 Mean 97.5 15.2 20.7 29.8 85.7 39.0 10.5 8.6 Mean 91.0 15.6 19.7 28.4 78.6 42.7 8.9 7.3 Stand. deviation 54.4 14.7 12.5 15.0 80.9 49.6 Stand. deviation 255.4 13.5 22.6 46.2 186.8 49.0 30.8 28.1 Stand. deviation 236.3 13.7 21.3 42.7 174.6 49.7 28.5 26.1 Lower quartile 17.0 6.8 6.7 10.2 1.0 0.0 Lower quartile 15.0 5.1 5.8 6.4 21.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lower quartile 15.0 5.2 5.9 6.6 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Median 35.0 10.8 9.1 17.2 21.0 100.0 Median 35.0 12.1 13.1 19.2 34.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Median 35.0 11.3 11.5 18.9 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper quartile 85.0 23.5 23.4 33.1 30.0 100.0 Upper quartile 80.0 22.1 31.0 37.1 57.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 Upper quartile 82.5 22.2 24.5 37.0 54.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 Sample size 19 18 18 12 17 19 19 19 Sample size 105 87 87 60 88 105 105 105 Sample size 124 105 105 72 105 124 124 124 46 Table VI: Recovery rates by type of filing in bankruptcy reorganisations Percentage recovery rates for each claimant classa, by type of filing, in successful reorganisations. A firm reorganises successfully when it emerges from bankruptcy with either its independence preserved or is acquired or merged. The figures are based on 72 Chapter 11s with DIP financing and 100 Chapter 11s without DIP financing. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. P-values are shown in brackets. Type of filing Pre-packs Mean Median Non-Prepacks Mean Median Non-Prepacksd Mean Median Total Mean Median DIP Fin. ($m) 14 39.1 28.5 58 120.9 37.5 25 199.6 75.0 72 105.0 35.0 - Secured creditors DIP Non-DIP 14 32 94.0 93.3 (0.885) 100.0 100.0 (0.548) 58 68 93.1 89.4 (0.344) 100.0 100.0 (0.227) 25 68 96.0 89.4 (0.078) 100.0 100.0 (0.047) 72 100 93.3 90.7 (0.401) 100.0 100.0 (0.440) Unsecured creditors DIP Non-DIP 14 32 43.2 68.8 (0.014) 51.1 70.5 (0.024) 58 68 49.1 49.2 (0.990) 36.1 42.5 (0.752) 25 68 72.6 49.2 (0.050) 68.3 42.5 (0.048) 72 100 48.0 55.5 (0.212) 36.8 53.0 (0.076) Equity-holdersb DIP Non-DIP 14 32 6.3 12.0 (0.219) 2.1 4.4 (0.333) 58 68 12.0 24.9 (0.020) 1.8 1.6 (0.420) 25 68 15.7 24.9 (0.161) 5.1 1.6 (0.741) 72 100 10.9 20.8 (0.019) 1.9 2.9 (0.264) Equity-holdersb c DIP Non-DIP 14 32 1.8 3.3 (0.278) 0.9 1.5 (0.264) 58 68 5.7 7.6 (0.473) 0.2 0.6 (0.461) 25 68 6.3 7.6 (0.705) 0.7 0.6 (0.541) 72 100 4.9 6.2 (0.518) 0.3 1.3 (0.207) Recovery rates for each class are given by the amount received by all the creditors of that class divided by the estimated allowed claim at face value for that class. Recovery rates for equity were obtained as a percentage of the ownership retained by pre-existing share-holders, after dilution. a b “Equity-holders” include holders of preferred stock, options, rights, warrants and common stock. This column reflects a different metric for equity recovery rates: the percentage recovery rate for equity-holders is given by the proportion of their payments over the total distribution to claimants. c d The proportion of DIP financing in the estimated total debt is at least 20%. 47 Table VII: Means of payment in bankruptcy reorganisations Percentage of the total payments received by all stake-holders in the form of cash, debt, preferred stock, optionsa or common stock, in successful reorganisations. A firm reorganises successfully when it emerges from bankruptcy with either its independence preserved or is acquired or merged. The figures are based on 72 Chapter 11s with DIP financing and 100 Chapter 11s without DIP financing. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. Claimants Secured creditors Mean Median Unsecured creditors Mean Median Total creditors Mean Median Equity-holdersb Mean Median Total Mean Median a Cash DIP Non-DIP 67 88 31.4 23.3 (0.176) 9.9 2.4 (0.267) 71 99 31.8 36.0 (0.487) 18.3 13.7 (0.660) 72 100 30.2 29.3 (0.870) 17.1 12.4 (0.417) 42 65 1.0 10.0 (0.019) 0.0 0.0 (0.047) 72 100 27.9 27.1 (0.854) 16.1 11.6 (0.366) Debt DIP Non-DIP 67 88 58.6 66.6 (0.228) 76.0 87.2 (0.318) 71 99 16.5 29.8 (0.009) 0.0 6.6 (0.036) 72 100 34.0 47.3 (0.006) 25.9 49.7 (0.014) 42 65 3.4 0.7 (0.317) 0.0 0.0 (0.332) 72 100 32.5 44.8 (0.010) 25.0 46.1 (0.023) Preferred stock DIP Non-DIP 67 88 0.6 0.0 71 99 2.7 1.4 (0.357) 0.0 0.0 (0.213) 72 100 1.7 1.0 (0.506) 0.0 0.0 (0.669) 42 65 1.9 0.0 72 100 1.5 1.6 (0.935) 0.0 0.0 (0.974) Options DIP Non-DIP 67 88 0.1 0.0 (0.585) 0.0 0.0 (0.996) 71 99 1.3 1.3 (0.981) 0.0 0.0 (0.140) 72 100 0.5 0.9 (0.478) 0.0 0.0 (0.226) 42 65 43.3 12.9 (0.000) 21.2 0.0 (0.000) 72 100 1.8 1.0 (0.326) 0.0 0.0 (0.001) Common stock DIP Non-DIP 67 88 9.9 9.5 (0.922) 0.0 0.0 (0.607) 71 99 47.7 31.5 (0.006) 46.1 10.8 (0.007) 72 100 33.7 21.5 (0.003) 30.5 14.1 (0.002) 42 65 52.4 74.5 (0.009) 70.1 100.0 (0.012) 72 100 36.3 25.5 (0.008) 34.9 18.0 (0.005) The category “Options” includes options, rights and warrants. b “Equity-holders” include holders of preferred stock, options, rights, warrants and common stock. 48 Table VIII: Deviations from absolute priority by type of filing in bankruptcy reorganisations Percentage deviations from absolute priority for each claimant class a, by type of filing, in successful reorganisations. A firm reorganises successfully when it emerges from bankruptcy with either its independence preserved or is acquired or merged. The figures are based on 72 Chapter 11s with DIP financing and 100 Chapter 11s without DIP financing. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. P-values are shown in brackets. Type of filing Pre-packs Mean Median Non-Prepacks Mean Median Non-Prepacksc Mean Median Total Mean Median DIP Fin. ($m) 14 39.1 28.5 58 120.9 37.5 25 199.6 75.0 72 105.0 35.0 - Secured creditors DIP Non-DIP 14 32 -1.6 -1.5 (0.882) 0.0 0.0 (0.738) 58 68 -4.9 -4.2 (0.803) 0.0 0.0 (0.357) 25 68 -1.9 -4.2 (0.200) 0.0 0.0 (0.061) 72 100 -4.2 -3.3 (0.653) 0.0 0.0 (0.533) Unsecured creditors DIP Non-DIP 14 32 -0.2 -0.4 (0.899) -0.2 0.0 (0.534) 58 68 4.6 0.5 (0.206) 0.0 0.0 (0.295) 25 68 3.6 0.5 (0.409) 0.0 0.0 (0.649) 72 100 3.6 0.2 (0.156) 0.0 0.0 (0.473) Equity-holdersb DIP Non-DIP 14 32 1.8 1.9 (0.969) 0.9 0.9 (0.952) 58 68 0.3 3.7 (0.080) 0.0 0.0 (0.303) 25 68 -1.7 3.7 (0.056) 0.0 0.0 (0.326) 72 100 0.6 3.1 (0.089) 0.0 0.0 (0.322) a Deviations from absolute priority for each class measure the net dollar deviations as a percentage of the value of the securities that were restructured. b “Equity-holders” include holders of preferred stock, options, rights, warrants and common stock. c The proportion of DIP financing in the estimated total debt is at least 20%. 49 Table IX: Determinants of successful reorganisations Logistic regressions of the determinants of a successful reorganisation in Chapter 11. A firm reorganises successfully when it emerges from bankruptcy with either its independence preserved or is acquired or merged. A firm has an unsuccessful reorganisation when it is either liquidated in Chapter 11 or its case is converted to Chapter 7. The figures are based on 135 Chapter 11s with DIP financing and 191 Chapter 11s without DIP financing. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. Independent variables Constant intercept Log(Total liabilities) Dependent variables (p-values in brackets) Successful reorganisation (1)a Successful reorganisation (2)b 1.146 -1.256 0.247 (0.069) Time to obtain DIP financing after filing for bankruptcy (days) Dummy DIP financing Dummy Priming Liens Dummy Pre-pack Dummy Involuntary filing Dummy New chairman during bankruptcy Dummy Equity committee Dummy Trustee R2 Sample size a Logistic regression for all the firms. b Logistic regression for DIP firms only. 0.911 (0.047) -1.778 (0.086) 2.034 (0.003) 1.314 (0.077) 2.150 (0.036) 2.131 (0.009) -3.786 (0.000) 49.433 292 0.749 (0.020) 0.021 (0.082) -2.042 (0.059) 12.526 (0.053) -3.447 (0.000) 50.560 91 50 Table X: Management turnover by bankruptcy outcome Management turnovera for firms that successfully reorganised or were liquidated in bankruptcy. A firm reorganises successfully when it emerges from bankruptcy with either its independence preserved or is acquired or merged. A liquidation can occur in Chapter 11 or as a conversion to Chapter 7. The figures are based on 135 Chapter 11s with DIP financing and 191 Chapter 11s without DIP financing. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. P-values are shown in brackets. Bankruptcy outcome Reorganisation Mean Median Liquidation Mean Median Total Mean Median a New CEO before and during Chapter 11 DIP Non-DIP 109 143 34.9 18.9 (0.009) 0.0 0.0 (0.002) 23 47 56.5 10.6 (0.004) 0.0 0.0 (0.000) 135 191 40.0 16.8 (0.000) 0.0 0.0 (0.000) New CEO during Chapter 11 DIP Non-DIP 109 143 25.7 9.8 (0.001) 0.0 0.0 (0.001) 23 47 39.1 4.3 (0.003) 0.0 0.0 (0.000) 135 191 28.1 8.4 (0.000) 0.0 0.0 (0.000) New CEO right after Chapter 11 DIP Non-DIP 109 143 21.1 12.6 (0.078) 0.0 0.0 (0.070) - 109 143 21.1 12.6 (0.078) 0.0 0.0 (0.070) New Chairman before and during Chapter 11 DIP Non-DIP 109 143 19.3 14.7 (0.362) 0.0 0.0 (0.350) 23 47 17.4 10.6 (0.603) 0.0 0.0 (0.904) 135 191 19.3 13.6 (0.226) 0.0 0.0 (0.299) New Chairman during Chapter 11 DIP Non-DIP 109 143 12.8 6.3 (0.087) 0.0 0.0 (0.075) 23 47 8.7 2.1 (0.312) 0.0 0.0 (0.212) 135 191 12.6 5.2 (0.026) 0.0 0.0 (0.018) New Chairman right after Chapter 11 DIP Non-DIP 109 143 18.3 8.4 (0.025) 0.0 0.0 (0.019) - 109 143 18.3 8.4 (0.025) 0.0 0.0 (0.019) Changes in CEO and Chairman. 51 Table XI: Determinants of DIP financing Determinants of debtor-in-possession financing and of its magnitude in terms of the estimated total debt. The first regression is logistic and the second one is OLS. The figures are based on 135 Chapter 11s with DIP financing and 191 Chapter 11s without DIP financing that reorganised as independent firms. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. P-values are shown in brackets. Independent variables Dependent variables (p-values in brackets) DIP financing Constant intercept DIP Financing / Estimated total debt (%) -0.465 Log(Total liabilities) Current assets / Current liabilities (%) Income / Total assets (%) 0.021 (0.001) Log(Revenue / Total assets) 0.663 (0.000) Log(Secured debt / Fixed assets) Dummy Pre-pack -0.839 Dummy Pre-petition lender Dummy Top 5 Banks that provided DIP financing Dummy New CEO during bankruptcy 1.464 (0.000) Dummy Equity committee 0.764 (0.083) Dummy Bankruptcy venue in Delaware 1.447 (0.000) Dummy Manufacturing-consumers Dummy Retail Sample size a (0.086) -3.523 (0.018) 0.042 (0.054) 0.279 (0.024) -3.657 (0.002) 29.402 (0.004) 8.570 (0.049) 13.717 (0.002) 15.593 (0.009) 7.515 (0.091) (0.022) Dummy Priming Liens R2 18.779 18.789 287a 63.763 54 Includes 113 firms with DIP financing (39.4% of the sample). 52 (A) DIP N=58 Mean=49.1 Median=36.1 Successful reorganisation N=126 P-Value Means=0.990 Mean=49.1 P-Value Medians=0.752 Median=39.3 Non-DIP P-Value Means=0.328 N=68 P-Value Medians=0.258 Mean=49.2 Median=42.5 Non-Prepacks P-Value Means=0.029 N=147 P-Value Medians=0.010 DIP N=5 Mean=28.9 P-Value Means=0.043 Median=23.0 P-Value Medians=0.037 Liquidation N=21 P-Value Means=0.982 Mean=28.7 P-Value Medians=0.967 Median=14.1 Non-DIP N=16 Mean=28.6 Median=11.7 (B) Successful reorganisation N=58 Mean=49.1 Median=36.1 DIP N=63 P-Value Means=0.328 Mean=47.5 P-Value Medians=0.258 Median=36.0 Liquidation P-Value Means=0.990 N=5 P-Value Medians=0.752 Mean=28.9 Median=23.0 Non-Prepacks P-Value Means=0.738 N=147 P-Value Medians=0.807 Successful reorganisation N=68 Mean=49.2 P-Value Means=0.982 Median=42.5 P-Value Medians=0.967 Non-DIP N=84 P-Value Means=0.043 Mean=45.3 P-Value Medians=0.037 Median=39.7 Liquidation N=16 Mean=28.6 Median=11.7 Figure 1: Recovery rates for unsecured creditors for DIP and Non-DIP firms Percentage recovery rates for unsecured creditors by type of filing and bankruptcy outcome. A firm reorganises successfully when it emerges from bankruptcy with either its independence preserved or is acquired or merged. A liquidation can occur in Chapter 11 or as a conversion to Chapter 7. The values are given as a proportion of the total cases in each box. The figures are based on 63 conventional Chapter 11s with DIP financing and 84 conventional Chapter 11s without DIP financing. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. 53 (A) * DIP N=87 Mean=48.1 Median=0.0 * Successful reorganisation N=181 P-Value Means=0.463 Mean=71.5 P-Value Medians=0.463 Median=100.0 * Non-DIP N=94 P-Value Means=0.054 P-Value Medians=0.054 Mean=51.9 Median=100.0 Non-Prepacks P-Value Means=0.000 N=253 P-Value Medians=0.000 DIP N=25 Mean=34.7 P-Value Means=0.054 Median=0.0 P-Value Medians=0.054 * Liquidation N=72 P-Value Means=0.000 Mean=28.5 P-Value Medians=0.000 Median=0.0 Non-DIP N=47 Mean=65.3 Median=100.0 (B) * Successful reorganisation N=87 Mean=77.7 Median=100.0 ** DIP N=112 P-Value Means=0.000 Mean=44.3 P-Value Medians=0.000 Median=0.0 * Liquidation N=25 P-Value Means=0.054 P-Value Medians=0.054 Mean=22.3 Median=0.0 Non-Prepacks P-Value Means=0.010 N=253 P-Value Medians=0.010 * Successful reorganisation N=94 Mean=66.7 P-Value Means=0.054 Median=100.0 P-Value Medians=0.054 ** Non-DIP N=141 P-Value Means=0.000 Mean=55.7 P-Value Medians=0.000 Median=100.0 * Liquidation N=47 Mean=33.3 Median=0.0 Figure 2: Bankruptcy outcome for DIP and Non-DIP firms Firm bankruptcies by type of filing and bankruptcy outcome. A firm reorganises successfully when it emerges from bankruptcy with either its independence preserved or is acquired or merged. A liquidation can occur in Chapter 11 or as a conversion to Chapter 7. The values are given as a proportion of the total cases in each box. The figures are based on 135 Chapter 11s with DIP financing and 191 Chapter 11s without DIP financing. The sample period is from January 1986 to December 1997. * and ** denote that the means and the medians in the boxes in Panel A (B) are significantly different from the corresponding boxes in Panel C (D) at the 1% and 5% level. 54 (C) * DIP N=22 Mean=31.0 Median=0.0 * Successful reorganisation N=71 P-Value Means=0.000 Mean=97.3 P-Value Medians=0.000 Median=100.0 * Non-DIP N=49 P-Value Means=0.574 P-Value Medians=0.585 Mean=69.0 Median=100.0 Prepacks P-Value Means=0.000 N=73 P-Value Medians=0.000 DIP N=1 Mean=50.0 P-Value Means=0.574 Median=50.0 P-Value Medians=0.585 * Liquidation N=2 P-Value Means=1.000 Mean=2.7 P-Value Medians=0.665 Median=0.0 Non-DIP N=1 Mean=50.0 Median=50.0 (D) * Successful reorganisation N=22 Mean=95.7 Median=100.0 ** DIP N=23 P-Value Means=0.000 Mean=31.5 P-Value Medians=0.000 Median=0.0 * Liquidation N=1 P-Value Means=0.627 P-Value Medians=0.585 Mean=4.3 Median=0.0 Prepacks P-Value Means=0.000 N=73 P-Value Medians=0.000 * Successful reorganisation N=49 Mean=98.0 P-Value Means=0.627 Median=100.0 P-Value Medians=0.585 ** Non-DIP N=50 P-Value Means=0.000 Mean=68.5 P-Value Medians=0.000 Median=100.0 * Liquidation N=1 Mean=2.0 Median=0.0 Figure 2: Bankruptcy outcome for DIP and Non-DIP firms (cont.) 55