Changing the broken record: New theory and data on Maori offending Simone Bull Introduction Despite being experts in criminal justice, when we gauged how well we know Maori representation in the criminal justice system at the recent IPS evidence forum, our knowledge was shown to be seriously lacking. This is reflected in the sparse literature on the topic. Existing theory Few explanations for the seemingly high levels of offending by Māori have been the object of rigorous research in New Zealand - although many have been the subject of "rigorous assertion" (Stenning, 2005). Over the past century, the volume of literature generated by Maori offending is such that you could list most of the references on one page. The drivers of crime specified in that literature range from atavism to tradition and cultural mores; urbanisation, cultural discontinuity, failed integration, acculturation stress, social disorganisation, and lifestyle instability; primary and secondary culture conflicts; colonial injustices, institutional racism, tradition corrupted, cultural denigration and powerlessness; poor education outcomes (sometimes involving glue ear) and socio-economic deprivation; whānau alienation, stress, alcohol and drug abuse; necessity, excitement, consumerism; politicisation and decolonisation; and, most recently, trapped lifestyles (complex interplay between socio-economic variables, confused or partially developed cultural identities, and individual and collective experiences). Bias and the age structure of the population have also been identified as critical issues for Maori. But, I view them not as explanations of offending so much as [partial] explanations of the extent of Maori representation in the criminal justice system (though General Strain Theory does posit bias as a motivation for crime). I don’t have the space here to review or critique this literature. At the risk of over-simplifying, I want to focus on key themes. Key theme 1: Maori 'over-representation' is the wrong paradigm The bulk of published literature on the causes of Maori offending consists of general (as opposed to offence-specific) theories that try to explain all Maori offending. Most start with the observation that Maori are over-represented in the criminal justice system, and work from there. But, how robust is this claim? On the surface, it seems valid. While making up only 15% of the general population, Maori currently comprise 40-45% of all Police apprehensions. Therefore, Māori are over-represented in the criminal justice system. On the other hand, this view of Maori over-representation ignores the roles played by known criminogenic factors. Rather than compare the proportion of Māori apprehensions to the proportion of Māori in the general population, for example, we should examine whether the proportion of Māori who are young, male, unmarried, unemployed, uneducated, in substandard housing, is reflected in the apprehension statistics. Rates of recorded offending, and hence imprisonment, are well known to depend on a range of social development factors (Braithwaite, 1989), rather than raw population proportions. But, we have never undertaken research to test whether Maori are still over-represented in the criminal justice system once you control for known criminogenic variables. Key theme 2: Perceptions of Maori offending are distorted It is my conjecture that, as far as our perceptions of Maori offending are concerned, reality has been overtaken by stereotypes and assorted misinformation much of which is generated by corporate media. In the book Simulacra and Simulation (1995), French social theorist Jean Baudrillard refers to this state of affairs as hyper-reality. Unfortunately, this hyper-reality (rather than a sound evidence base) has become the starting point for much research and policy. Our ability to correct this requires us to fully utilise the available evidence. Key theme 3: Existing data is under-utilised Braithwaite (1989) identified 13 powerful associations that all general theories of crime need to account for. These include, for example, the observation that 80% of reported offending is committed by males, and that crime is disproportionately committed by those aged between 15 and 25 years. In New Zealand, the data needed to characterise Maori representation in the criminal justice system along these lines, has been publicly available on the Statistics New Zealand website for over 10 years. That data is rarely utilised in depth. Key theme 4: The research record is sparse Part of the problem with theorising about Maori offending is that the research record is discontinuous – we never take one theory and thoroughly test, enhance or re-examine it in light of new evidence. We just wait a few years for another to come along – usually from overseas. Although the record may seem broad it has little depth, and is actually small compared to other topics in criminal justice. Status quo Notwithstanding the failure to account for Maori offence profiles, prevailing opinion seems to be divided between those who see socio-economic deprivation as key among numerous developmental and/or life course risk factors (trajectory and risk theorists), and those who see it as stemming from broad social inequalities (critical and counter-colonial criminologists). At present, no one is joining the two together though the connection seems obvious: colonisation generated broad social inequalities leading to deprivation, the deprivation causes the crime, causes the inequality, causes the deprivation. Of course, all of this is of very little help (or interest, probably) to the victims and offenders who find themselves caught up in the criminal justice system. While we wait for existing theory to be enhanced in light of better data, and/or for new theory to be developed, there is scope for using the data that we do have to initiate primary crime prevention initiatives where they are most needed. However, their efficacy rests on the assumption that much offending is opportunistic, that is, it occurs on the spur of the moment without premeditation or planning. The basic idea, famously demonstrated by Mayhew et al., 1976), is that crime can be prevented by reducing opportunities for it to occur, using techniques developed under the rubric of situational crime prevention. Obviously, this does not address the underlying drivers of offending. But this may not be necessary for the large majority of people whose offending only occurs during adolescence. According to the data, then, what characteristics of volume crime among Māori are in most need of being addressed? 'New' data In the most recent fiscal year, 2007/08, we know that 79% of all apprehensions of Māori were of males (72,186 out of 91,944), in accordance with the general rule that females are responsible for roughly 20% of reported offences. We can narrow the bulk of Maori apprehensions down to a relatively small number of offence classes/types. It is important to note, however, that family violence-related offending cuts across several different offence classes. When collated (n=17,106), it exceeds all of the individual offence classes/types noted above. 2007/08 Maori apprehensions, all ages, all genders, by key offence class/type (excl traffic) 17% 37% 6% Assaults Drugs (Cannabis Only) Disorder Burglary Car Conversion Etc 11% Theft Ex Shop (No Drugs) Wilful Damage Other 8% 8% 8% 5% There are some variations on this theme when the data is broken down by age/gender (excl family violence). For example, shoplifting accounts for 50% of 0-9 year old Maori girls' apprehensions and 25% of 0-9 year old Maori boys' apprehensions. "Disorder" and "assaults" tend to feature more prominently from 17 years of age onwards, as access to alcohol increases. Police apprehensions of Māori males and females are disproportionately of those aged between 14 and 30 years (see graph below). However, the age profiles do vary by offence category (as well as class and type). Age distributions of traffic apprehensions are slightly more skewed toward the older age brackets, reflecting children and young peoples' relatively limited access to vehicles. Total Māori Apprehensions in 2007/08 (per 1,000 Māori) by Age Band 600 Māori Apprehensions per 1,000 Māori 500 400 Dishonesty Drugs & AntiSocial Violence Property Damage 300 Property Abuse Administrative Sexual Total 200 100 0 0 to 9 10 to 13 14 to 16 17 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 51 to 99 Age group In 2007/08 (and preceding years), the Police areas with the highest volumes of Maori apprehensions were: Hamilton city, Waitakere, Western Bay of Plenty, Whangarei, Rotorua, Auckland city central, with some variations by age and gender. Generally, the further south you go, the lower the volume of Maori apprehensions. On converting apprehension volumes into “crude” apprehension rates1 a more classical picture is obtained. Auckland city has the highest rate of apprehensions at 1,322 apprehensions per 1,000 Māori with Christchurch central a distant second on 432 apprehensions per 1,000 Maori (the picture is broadly the same irrespective of gender, though the extent of the problem is worse for males). The conjecture is that the two rate hotspots are driven by commuters rather than residents. The question then becomes: From how far a field are these offenders travelling? Over the past 10 years, diversions have remained fairly steady at 1-2% of all resolutions. In 2007/08, Maori had the lowest proportion of cases resolved via diversion at 0.6%, while "Asiatics" had the highest (5.9%) - suggesting a possible model for good practice. Prosecutions have increased from 59% to 69% overall and warnings/cautions have dropped from 22% to 16%. 71% of Maori (and "Pacific Isle") apprehensions are resolved by prosecution, 13% by warnings/cautions. For "Caucasians", the corresponding figures are 66% and 18%. Ethnic discrepancies in offence resolutions between Maori and "Caucasians" appear most pronounced among 14-16 yr olds. 1 Using 2006 census population data broken down by age, gender, ethnicity and Police area we can calculate a "crude" rate by dividing the total number of apprehensions by the population figures and multiplying by (say) 1,000. It is "crude" because it is assumes that each apprehension represents a discrete offender when we know that some offenders are responsible for multiple apprehensions. Road policing data is particularly important to Maori offence profiles because "drink driving" is a driver of the Maori prison population. Ethnicity data is not recorded in a lot of traffic-related apprehensions. But where we do have the information, it reveals that drink driving dominates the four highest volume offence types for Maori. This is more so for Maori females (45%) than males (34%), and varies even more by age. Among Maori females aged 21-30, drink driving comprises 76% of the apprehensions for the four key offence types. By Police area, the highest volume of Maori traffic apprehensions were in the Far North, Western Bay of Plenty, Whangarei, Rotorua, CM central, CM south, Hamilton city, Gisborne, Hastings, Waitakere. Making the most of available evidence Most of us would have no difficulty in acknowledging the sources below as evidence. Yet, despite the shortage of Maori-specific evidence on offer, we rarely use all of these sources, let alone collectively. 6 monthly Maori apprehensions dataset (SNZ) some analysis of NZCASS Maori findings (MoJ) available later in 2009, and triennially at best unpublished findings of TPK (assisted by MoJ, MWA, and Corrections) engagement with Maori providers, practitioners & offenders (2007) Moana Jackson’s colloquium (2008) and subsequent report (2009) longitudinal studies (ongoing) infrequent publications from Maori criminologists (Tauri, Webb, myself) I think we could also agree that we need many more than this if we are to address Maori offending. So, how do we generate more evidence? Not by looking offshore to theory constructed without reference to the local context. If we accept that all knowledge is socially constructed, and that what makes one point of view acceptable at any one time is not that it is more truthful than another but that it is backed by greater power resources, then I believe we must look to popular culture as a source of evidence. The views of very few people find expression in academic literature and policy circles. This is especially true for Maori. According to the 1996 Adult Literacy survey, 70% of Maori [45% of non-Maori] have literacy skills below what is regarded as the minimum level required to meet the "complex demands of everyday life and work" in the emerging "knowledge society". More perspectives are heard in song lyrics, films, poetry, novels, biographies – the matatini performing arts festival is a classic example of this. Great Maori composers like Tuini Ngawai and her niece Ngoi Pewhairangi provided extensive commentary on a broad range of social, political and cultural issues through the performing arts. And their work was intimately linked with the Kotahitanga movement. I am not suggesting uncritical acceptance of this material, but what Clifford Geertz describes as analysis that searches for meaning, measured by the consistency and coherence of “thick description”. Responding to offending by Maori There is no wonder drug for responding to Maori offending. Instead, there is a choice we all need to make. We can stick with the status quo, tinker at the fringes with ad hoc policy and research, jealously guarding our territory as though we have a monopoly on expertise and competence. But theory not based on robust evidence, which is what I propose we are relying too heavily upon, is guesswork (no matter how well educated). And guesswork, demonstrably, has a low probability of success. Or, we can start afresh, and engage with ALL of the available evidence, perhaps even invest in independent Maori research aligned to a proper characterisation of "the problem". 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