BA 253: Business Statistics Instructor: Office: email: Section 20191 20192 Eric Huggins, Ph.D. 158 EBH huggins_e@fortlewis.edu Term: Phone: Text: Fall 2013 382-6912 946-9077 Class Time and Place MWF, 8:15-9:25, EBH 055 MWF, 1:55-3:05, EBH 118 Office Hours: MWF, 11-noon & 12:45-1:45, or TuTh by appointment. Text: Essentials of Statistics for Business and Economics (6th Edition) by Anderson, Sweeney and Williams. South-Western. 2012. ISBN 978-1-111-53384-7. Overview: Statistics is the study of how to present and draw conclusions from data. According to Mark Twain (via Benjamin Disraeli), “There are three types of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Many students harbor the same ill will towards statistics as old Mark Twain did. It is my sincere hope that by the end of this course, you will not only understand statistics, but will also understand why statistics is such a powerful, necessary, and useful tool in modern business management. In fact, a compelling argument can be made that data-driven decision making, also called business analytics, will drive successful businesses in the future; statistics is one of the foundations of business analytics. Goals and Objectives: Students will learn how to describe data both graphically and numerically. Students will learn how to summarize large data sets with just a few key statistics. Students will learn how to solve small problems by hand using a scientific calculator and larger problems using Microsoft Excel. Students will learn how to distinguish and apply several advanced statistical concepts and techniques, including: o Probability and Probability Distributions o Confidence Intervals o Hypothesis Testing o Chi2 Tests o ANOVA o Linear and Multiple Regression Tentative Grading Policy: Homework and In Class Exercises Term Project (Due Wednesday, 12/11/13) Exams Total 22@1% = 22% 10% 4@17 % = 68% 100% Homework will be assigned most weeks and will be graded on the basis of effort. Homework due dates will be absolutely firm – no late submissions accepted. In Class Exercises will occur about once a week. Class attendance is required as most of these activities will be group oriented. The project is a group project that will be submitted as a written report at the end of the term. More details about the project will be available as the term progresses. Each exam will cover material from the previous ten class meetings and may contain cumulative material from previous exams. Exams will not be rescheduled and missed exams will receive a score of zero. The final exam will cover the entire course and will be an opportunity for students to improve their grade at the end of the term. Details on the final exam will be discussed in class at the end of the term. Each homework assignment and in class exercise is worth approximately 1% of the final course grade. Skipping these assignments and exercises throughout the term will have a negative impact when final grades are calculated. Final grades will be assigned as: 94-100 = A, 90-93.9 = A-, 87-89.9 = B+, 8386.9 = B, 80-82.9 = B-, 77-79.9 = C+, 73-76.9 = C, 70-72.9 = C-, 67-69.9 = D+, 63-66.9 = D, 60-62.9 = D- and 0-59.9 = F. Students who withdraw prior to the Census Date will not receive a grade for the course. After Census Date, there are new, stricter rules about withdrawing from a course (taking a ‘W’). You received an email about these rules, read it carefully. Tentative Schedule*: Week 9/2 – 9/6 9/9 - 9/13 9/16 - 9/20 9/23 - 9/27 9/30 – 10/4 10/7 – 10/11 10/14 – 10/18 10/21 – 10/26 10/28 – 11/1 11/4 – 11/8 11/11 – 11/15 11/18 – 11/22 Material Comments Ch. 1, Ch. 2: Data and Descriptive Statistics Ch. 3: Numerical Descriptive Statistics Ch. 5: Discrete Probability Distributions Ch. 6: Normal Distribution Exam 1 is on Monday 9/23 Ch. 7: Sampling Ch. 8: Confidence Intervals Ch. 9: Hypothesis Testing Exam 2 is on Friday 10/18 Ch. 10: HT with Two Populations Ch. 10: ANOVA Ch. 11: χ2 Tests Ch. 12: Linear Regression Exam 3 is on Monday 11/11 Ch. 13: Multiple Regression Thanksgiving Break! 12/2 – 12/6 Review 12/9 – 12/13 Projects Exam 4 is on Wednesday 12/11 Final Exams: Monday 12/16 @ 7:30am or Tuesday 12/17 @ 9:45am * This schedule is tentative at best. Changes will be clearly documented in class as they occur. Attendance: Students who attend class regularly will likely succeed; students who frequently skip class will likely fail. Missing three or more classes, without extraordinary and compelling reasons, will result in a course grade penalty at the discretion of the professor. Students must be present to take and receive credit for in class exercises and exams. Students who miss class are responsible for learning the material they missed on their own. Special Needs: Fort Lewis College is committed to providing all students a liberal arts education through a personalized learning environment. If you think you have or you do have a documented disability which will need reasonable academic accommodations, please call, Dian Jenkins, the Coordinator of Disability Service, 280 Noble Hall, 2477459, for an appointment as soon as possible. Classroom Etiquette: Students are expected to arrive to class on time, ready to learn. Good preparation for class includes reading the appropriate material, completing homework assignments, and discussing relevant topics with classmates prior to class. Please do not bring food and drink (other than water) into class and turn off your cell phones. Similarly, the professor is expected to arrive on time, be prepared to teach, and end class promptly. Technology: This is a quantitative course. A scientific calculator is required. The TI83 or 84 is an excellent, albeit expensive, choice that will prove useful in your future SOBA classes. Any calculator that performs statistical functions including standard deviation, linear regression, and ANOVA will work. Students will also be expected to use appropriate computer software throughout the course. Specifically, we will use MS Excel, available in the FLC computer labs. Working Together: Students are encouraged to work together on homework assignments and while preparing for exams. Students who work together generally are more productive, learn more quickly from mistakes, and have more fun (if, in fact, it is possible to have fun while learning statistics.) Working together only works when each student in the group is an active participant in the learning process. Academic Dishonesty: Academic dishonesty will not be tolerated and will be punished as severely as possible. Cheating will result in an “F” for the course and being reported to the Vice President for Academic Affairs for possible additional sanctions. A Brief Life History: Eric Logan Huggins was born in Missoula, Montana, a town similar to Durango in many ways. At age nine he moved with his family to Olympia, Washington, former home of the eponymous beverage. He attended college at Harvey Mudd College in Claremont, California, and graduated with a B.S. in Mathematics. He then attended graduate school at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor for two years, earning an M.S. in Industrial and Operations Engineering. Needing a break from being a student, Eric moved to Honolulu, Hawaii, for a one year leave-of-absence from graduate school. Six years later, all the while teaching at Hawaii Pacific University, he decided to return to graduate school to complete his Ph.D. During his final three years of graduate school, Eric lived in Ann Arbor (again), Auckland, New Zealand (where he met his wife), and University City, Missouri. He lives in Durango with his wife Samantha and son Fergus. Dr. Huggins enjoys the great outdoors including hiking, mountain biking, camping, snowboarding, and surfing. For more information about Eric, please visit his website: http://soba.fortlewis.edu/huggins/