Trainer Survey Training 533576915 1.4. How Markets Work Session-at-a-glance Content Approximate Time Instructional Activity Plenary presentation and Q&A (includes time for “quick case”) Elements of Market Functioning 45minutes Option: Exercise 1.4.b. Market Environment in Malawi 20 minutes Small Group Work Exercise Debriefing 25 minutes Plenary discussion Total Time 90 minutes Session Objectives After this session, participants should be able to: Explain the differences between market structure, conduct and performance Explain the relevance of structure, conduct and performance for market functioning and food security assessment Session Supplies Power-point: 1.4. How Markets Work.ppt Workbook Exercise 1.4. Market Environment in Malawi (annexed to this Session Guide as Annex 1) Key Messages The analysis of market structure, conduct and performance (SCP) helps anticipate market response, define relevant scenarios, and formulate expectations about the season – all to understand more fully food security conditions. Analysis of SCP also can provide decision makers with the information needed to make better response decisions. This can help orient timing of humanitarian interventions, complementing & compensating for markets rather than replacing them. Market structure refers to the relatively stable features of a market that influence rivalry of buyers and sellers. Page 1 of 7 Trainer Survey Training 533576915 Market conduct refers to the patterns of behaviour that traders follow to affect or adjust to changing market conditions. Market performance refers to the extent to which markets can produce outcomes deemed good or preferred by society, that is, regular, predictable availability of basic foods at affordable prices for consumers. Facilitator Guidance and session preparation Facilitators should learn the basics of how trade policies impact markets, and how market structure, conduct and performance function in the country of the workshop. This knowledge will prove helpful in debriefing the various exercises and plenary questions. Room Setup Arrange for small group work in the plenary conference room. Session Activities Elements of Market Functioning 45 minutes Show PPTs 1-2 to present session topic and objectives. Show PPT 3 to quickly review three key elements of market elements (that most people have heard of and understand); show the fourth point and note that market environment and functioning – and SCP in particular – are also key elements that enable the analyst to anticipate the impact of trader decisions and actions on the market – and consequently on household food access. Show PPT 4 and note the particular importance and aims of analyzing SCP. Review the side bar and stress that learning about trader behaviour – particularly in a crisis is a key part forecasting the evolution of household food access. Show PPTs 5 and 6 to highlight the various economic, political and regulatory factors external to the market that can profoundly impact market conditions. Review the points quickly and then move to the Quick Case (Exercise 1.4.a) that provides a “real-life” example of market environmental factors that have a deep impact on food security in Egypt. Show PPT 7 and ask participants to read the case quickly and then, with a partner, discuss their responses to the two questions: Question 1. What are the main thrusts of the GoE’s Possible Responses Provision of subsidies for basic foods (bread, wheat flour, cooking oil, sugar) Page 2 of 7 Trainer Survey Training food security policy? 533576915 2. What are the main challenges confronting the GoE in liberalising its food security policies? In the future (not now), better targeting of subsidies, cost reduction Decreasing agricultural production costs Expansion of areas cultivated Liberalization of markets, pricing and trade; encourage comparative advantage in domestic and international markets, remove subsidies Lack of market and price stability Lack of crop diversification Reforms are not yet high-priority (While the answers are clearly provided in the short text, the exercise offers an opportunity to participants to apply the concepts of market environment that you have just presented.) Give them about five minutes, and then call on volunteers to offer their responses. Ensure that each pair of participants has actually discussed the case before responding: the aim is to discuss, not just “get it right.” After this brief discussion, show PPT 8 and turn the discussion to the market environment in the country of the workshop; ask them, “How do trade policies impact markets in this country?” Take a few responses and fill in the gaps to the best of your capacity. Now tell them you will review the three elements of market functioning – SCP. Show PPT 9 and review the points on market structure, emphasizing that trading relations – themselves a function of countless factors – play a large role in determining how well the market will function in time of crisis (i.e. whether or not food is likely to move to a deficit area.) Use PPT 10 as an example. Show PPT 11 as an example of highly developed trading patterns. Show PPTs 12and 13 to present the concept of the market chain – a group of people or organizations that direct the flow of commodities from production to consumers, and stress the importance of analysing the chain to understand what possible ruptures could take place in time of crisis. With PPT 14, ask the participants to reflect on the market chain in the workshop country, and what possible ruptures could result from a major shock? Take a few responses, but keep it moving. Show PPT 15 and note the second key element of market functioning: market conduct. This element is closely linked to market structure, and refers to the various patterns of behaviour that traders follow to affect or adjust to changing market conditions. Understanding these patterns is key to understanding how traders are likely to act if a shock limits production or consumption. Note that, if there are high barriers to entry, there will be a few firms and traders who can profitably engage in market activities. These few traders could engage in non-competitive Page 3 of 7 Trainer Survey Training 533576915 behaviour (price-setting) such as predatory price setting behaviour. Such high concentration can result in high profits and high marketing margins for traders, but also produce low producer shares for farming households (where producer share is the price received by farmer over the price paid by the end consumer for a commodity expressed in comparable units). Market conduct can have significant impact on household food security through purchasing power (livelihoods analysis). Show PPT 16 as one example of market conduct – on which many actors take a fee for service in the channelling of the food from production to consumer. Use PPT 17 to solicit participant perspectives on market conduct in the workshop country: i.e., the extent of market competition or concentration. Show PPT 18 and introduce the key element of “market performance” which is directly impacted by market structure and conduct. Market performance is basically the extent to which markets produce outcomes deemed by society to be good or preferable: a well-performing market is characterized by the regular and predictable availability of basic foods at affordable prices for most consumers. Note that this is of course a subjective judgment: when is a price considered fair? Fair to whom? In a crisis, if a trader charges a price higher than the cost of a given quantity of a commodity, can one say that the market is performing well? If the consumer then pays the higher price can one say the market is performing poorly? These are subjective arguments that require good knowledge of both pre-crisis and post-crisis conditions. Show PPT 19 to provide an example of markets whose prices appear to move closely in tandem – implying “well-integrated” markets. Note that this topic will be focused upon more closely later in the week. Use PPT 20 to solicit participant perspectives on market performance in the workshop country: i.e., the degree of stability or fluctuation with regard to prices. Show PPT 21 to sum up the reason for analyzing SCP: it helps us to anticipate whether or not food will move from where it is produced to where and when it is needed. Finally, show PPT 22 to indicate how the interpretation of SCP and market functioning serves WFP aims: it helps us anticipate the market response to shocks, to formulate expectations about the season, and clarifies the implications for possible cash or voucher programming. Option: Exercise 1.4.b. Market Environment in Malawi If time permits, have the participants conduct this exercise. If additional time has been taken up for answering participant questions on concepts, this can be omitted. This assumes that the Quick Case “Markets & Food Security Policy in Egypt” has been conducted. 20 minutes Page 4 of 7 Trainer Survey Training 533576915 Show PPT 23 and have participants turn to Workbook Exercise 1.4. The exercise should be carried out in groups of four (+/- depending upon the workshop size). Tell them they will have 20 minutes to read the case and, as a group, discuss the two questions, and prepare brief presentations to plenary of their findings. The questions to answer include: 1. How would they characterize the market environment in Northern Province? 2. What are the likely implications for market functioning and for household food security in Northern Province As they work, move around the tables and offer guidance as necessary. Option: Exercise Debriefing 25 minutes Ask the first group to offer one idea with regard to question 1. Ask the second group to offer another (not repeat!), the third group to offer another, etc. Continue until they have exhausted their findings. Repeat the same process with question 2. Their answers should get at the following points: Question Possible Responses 1. How would they Poor market environment: characterize the remoteness discourages traders from south; transaction costs market environment are very high in Northern Province? Need for much official authorization to trade – acts as barrier to entry; high and irregular customs duties; weak border controls with bribery rampant Non-tariff barriers to trade; central gov’t laws requiring import plans – results in poor market responsiveness, 2. What are the likely Market functioning is poor, unable to meet deficits imposed implications for by crisis market functioning Market structure is likely controlled by a few for their own and for household benefit food security in HH food insecurity is likely much increased because of Northern Province poorly performing markets Finally, use “1.5. Day 1 Summary.pptx” to summarize the day’s main learning points. Page 5 of 7 Trainer Survey Training 533576915 Annex 1 Exercise 1.4.b. Market Environment in Malawi Malawi has achieved considerable surplus production in recent years due to an ambitious agriculture agenda by the Government that has generated significant commodity surpluses and enabled local food procurement by aid agencies. The country’s agricultural policy has in recent years been liberalized, with a decreasing role for the Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) in the marketing of maize. ADMARC is widely viewed as a bloated, ineffective bureaucratic structure with ongoing cash flow problems. Two significant GoM policies remain in effect and are the cornerstones of the national food security agenda. Minimum farm gate prices for strategic crops: The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MoAFS) has for the past two seasons instituted minimum farm gate prices on all strategic crops, including maize, pulses, groundnuts, rice, and cotton. Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP): Access to inputs is a limiting factor for many farmers across Malawi. In response, MoAFS has built upon earlier input subsidy programmes and rolled out an ambitious national support system for smallholders. The input subsidy program was identified as a facilitating factor in surplus production last season. Structure Buying and selling of maize by smallholders happens primarily through small-scale traders who generally trade up to 50 MT at a time. Mid-scale traders employ multiple agents to buy commodities on their behalf, typically move volumes in the 500 to 2000 MT range, and are much less constrained by storage and capital than small-scale traders, but without the market dominance of large-scale traders. Mid-scale traders are generally crucial in moving maize into food-deficit areas during the lean season. Large traders have fewer storage and capital constraints than their mid-scale suppliers, and generally dominate the marketing of food commodities. Their operations are national, and include responding to contracts for NFRA and humanitarian organizations, and for export. Conduct A common accusation by consumers, aimed at both vendors and ADMARC, is a lack of price transparency: scales used to buy and sell commodities are said to be fixed so as to under-report weight when buying, and over-report weight when selling. Because prices can be manipulated and consumer capacity to hold traders accountable is lacking, there is little incentive for smallholders to produce and differentiate high quality from low quality maize. In some markets, small vendors and traders collude to buy and sell at fixed prices. This price-setting tends to occur more often in places where vendors are local and physically clustered at one specific location in the market, i.e. where cartel-like behaviour is possible. In Central region markets, where there is heavy trading activity by a wide range of traders from arriving from different towns, small traders are less collusive and more competitive. Performance Prices in Malawi in general are highly unstable, both within seasons (reflecting a high degree of seasonality) and between years (real prices in a given market, for a given month, show high degrees of variability). Many markets exhibit the highest levels of price instability in the months of July-September following the harvest, which corresponds with the peak of trader activity, making price negotiation of forward contracts with farmer organisations problematic. Page 6 of 7 Trainer Survey Training 533576915 Task: Read the case and, as a group, discuss: 3. How would you characterize the market environment in Malawi? 4. What are the likely implications for market functioning and for household food security in Malawi? Page 7 of 7