Chapter 13 RETURN, RISK AND THE SECURITY MARKET LINE SLIDES 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 13.10 13.11 13.12 13.13 13.14 13.15 13.16 13.17 13.18 13.19 13.20 13.21 13.22 13.23 13.24 13.25 13.26 13.27 13.28 13.29 13.30 13.31 13.32 13.33 13.34 13.35 13.36 13.37 13.38 Key Concepts and Skills Chapter Outline Expected Returns Example: Expected Returns Variance and Standard Deviation Example: Variance and Standard Deviation Another Example Portfolios Example: Portfolio Weights Portfolio Expected Returns Example: Expected Portfolio Returns Portfolio Variance Example: Portfolio Variance Another Example Expected versus Unexpected Returns Announcements and News Efficient Markets Systematic Risk Unsystematic Risk Returns Diversification Table 13.7 The Principle of Diversification Figure 13.1 Diversifiable Risk Total Risk Systematic Risk Principle Measuring Systematic Risk Table 13.8 Total versus Systematic Risk Work the Web Example Example: Portfolio Betas Beta and the Risk Premium Example: Portfolio Expected Returns and Betas Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Definition and Example Market Equilibrium Security Market Line The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) A-162 CHAPTER 13 SLIDES – CONTINUED 13.39 13.40 13.41 13.42 Factors Affecting Expected Return Example – CAPM Figure 13.41 Quick Quiz CHAPTER WEB SITES Section 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.6 End-of-chapter material Web Address www.bloomberguniversity.com www.quicken.com www.investopedia.com/university www.wallstreetcity.com moneycentral.msn.com quote.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com money.cnn.com www.stockscreener.com www.amex.com CHAPTER ORGANIZATION 13.1 Expected Returns and Variances Expected Return Calculating the Variance 13.2 Portfolios Portfolio Weights Portfolio Expected Returns Portfolio Variance 13.3 Announcements, Surprises, and Expected Returns Expected and Unexpected Returns Announcements and News 13.4 Risk: Systematic and Unsystematic Systematic and Unsystematic Risk Systematic and Unsystematic Components of Return 13.5 Diversification and Portfolio Risk The Effect of Diversification: Another Lesson from Market History The Principle of Diversification Diversification and Unsystematic Risk Diversification and Systematic Risk CHAPTER 13 A-163 13.6 Systematic Risk and Beta The Systematic Risk Principle Measuring Systematic Risk Portfolio Betas 13.7 The Security Market Line Beta and the Risk Premium The Security Market Line 13.8 The SML and the Cost of Capital: A Preview The Basic Idea The Cost of Capital 13.9 Summary and Conclusions ANNOTATED CHAPTER OUTLINE Slide 13.1 Slide 13.2 Key Concepts and Skills Chapter Outline Lecture Tip, page 415: You may find it useful to emphasize the economic foundations of the material in this chapter. Specifically, we assume that: -Investor rationality: Investors are assumed to prefer more money to less and less risk to more, all else equal. The result of this assumption is that the ex ante risk-return trade-off will be upward sloping. -As risk-averse return-seekers, investors will take actions consistent with the rationality assumptions. They will require higher returns to invest in riskier assets and are willing to accept lower returns on less risky assets. -Similarly, they will seek to reduce risk while attaining the desired level of return, or increase return without exceeding the maximum acceptable level of risk. 13.1. Expected Returns and Variances A. Expected Return A-164 CHAPTER 13 Let n denote the total number of states of the economy, Ri the return in state i, and pi the probability of state i. Then the expected return, E(R), is given by: n E(R) p i R i i 1 Example: State of economy Probability Return Product +1% change in GDP .25 -.05 -.0125 +2% change in GDP .50 .15 .0750 +3% change in GDP .25 .35 .0875 Sums 1.00 E(R) = .15 Projected risk premium = expected return minus risk-free rate = E(R) – Rf Slide 13.3 Slide 13.4 Expected Returns Example: Expected Returns B. Calculating the Variance n Var(R) 2 p i (R i E(R)) 2 i 1 Variance measures the dispersion of points around the mean of a distribution. In this context, we are attempting to characterize the variability of possible future security returns around the expected return. In other words, we are trying to quantify risk and return. Variance measures the total risk of the possible returns. State of Economy +1% change in GDP +2% change in GDP +3% change in GDP Total Probability .25 .50 .25 1.00 Return -.05 .15 .35 E(R) = .15 Squared Deviation 0.04 0.00 0.04 Product .01 .00 .01 2 = .02 Standard deviation = square root of variance = .1414 Slide 13.5 Variance and Standard Deviation Lecture Tip, page 418: Some students experience confusion in understanding the mathematics of the variance calculation. They may have the feeling they should divide the variance of an CHAPTER 13 A-165 expected return by (n-1). Point out that the probabilities account for this division. We divide by n-1 in the historical variance because we are looking at a sample. If we looked at the entire population (which is what we are doing with expected values), then we would divide by 1/n to get our historical variance. This is the same as saying that the “probability” of occurrence is the same for all observations and is equal to 1/n. Lecture Tip, page 419: Each individual has their own level of risk tolerance. Some people are just naturally more inclined to take risk and they will not require the same level of compensation as others for doing so. Our risk preferences also change through time. We may be willing to take more risk when we are young and without a spouse or kids. But, once we start a family, our risk tolerance may drop. Slide 13.6 Slide 13.7 13.2. Example: Variance and Standard Deviation Another Example Portfolios A. Portfolio Weights A portfolio is a collection of assets, such as stocks and bonds, held by an investor. Portfolios can be described by the percentage investment in each asset and these percentages are called portfolio weights. Example: If two securities in a portfolio have a combined value of $10,000 with $6000 invested in IBM and $4000 invested in GM, then weight in IBM = 6/10 = .6 and the weight in GM = 4/10 = .4. Slide 13.8 Portfolios B. Portfolio Expected Returns The expected return on a portfolio is the sum of the product of the expected returns on the individual securities and their portfolio weights. Let wj be the portfolio weight for asset j and m be the total number of assets in the portfolio; then m E(R) w j E(R j ) j 1 A-166 CHAPTER 13 This formula also works if you drop the expectations and just compute the portfolio return in each state of the economy. This is what is necessary for the calculation of the portfolio variance in the next section. Slide 13.9 Example Portfolio Weights Slide 13.10 Portfolio Expected Returns Slide 13.11 Example: Expected Portfolio Returns C. Portfolio Variance Unlike expected return, the variance of a portfolio is NOT the weighted sum of the individual security variances. Combining securities into portfolios can reduce the total variability of returns. Example: Consider a portfolio with equal amounts invested in three stocks: State of Economy Probability Return on A +1% change in .25 -.05 GDP +2% change in .50 .15 GDP +3% change in .25 .35 GDP Expected Return .15 Return on B .00 Return on C .20 Return on Portfolio .050 .10 .10 .117 .20 .00 .183 .10 .10 .117 Variances and standard deviations: Var(A) = .25(-.05-.15)2 + .5(.15-.15)2 + .25(.35-.15)2 = .02 Std. Dev.(A) = .1414 Var(B) = .25(0 - .1)2 + .5(.1 - .1)2 + .25(.2 - .1)2 = .005 Std. Dev.(B) = .0707 Var(C) = .25(.2 - .1)2 + .5(.1-.1)2 + .25(0-.1)2 = .005 Std. Dev.(C) = .0707 Var(portfolio) = .25(.05-.117)2 + .5(.117-.117)2 + .25(.183-.117)2 = .002 Std. Dev.(portfolio) = .047 Notice that the portfolio variance is less than any of the individual variances. CHAPTER 13 A-167 Slide 13.12 Portfolio Variance Lecture Tip, page 422: In must business programs, a course in elementary statistics is a prerequisite for the introductory finance course. And, while students are sometimes fuzzy on the details, they usually remember the general concept of the correlation coefficient (and hopefully the covariance). They almost always remember that the correlation coefficient is bounded by –1 and 1. You may find it useful to reintroduce them to the correlation concept here to deepen their understanding of portfolio variance. Specifically, for a two-asset portfolio, the portfolio variance is equal to: w 12 σ12 w 22 σ 22 2w 1 w 2 σ1σ 2 ρ1,2 or w 12 σ12 w 22 σ 22 2w 1 w 2 σ1,2 where 1,2 is the correlation coefficient and 1,2 is the covariance. When you expand the equation to more assets you will have a variance term for each asset and a covariance term for each pair of assets. As you increase the number of assets, it is easy to see that the correlation (covariance) between assets is much more important to determining the portfolio variance than the individual variances. Reconsider the previous example. The following covariances can be computed: cov(A,B) = .01 cov(A,C) = -.01 cov(B,C) = -.005 Using the covariances and extending the formula above to three assets, you can compute a portfolio variance and standard deviation: var = (1/3)2(.02) + (1/3)2(.005) + (1/3)2(.005) + 2(1/3)(1/3)(.01) + 2(1/3)(1/3)(-.01) + 2(1/3)(1/3)(-.005) = .002 standard deviation = .047 This is just as we computed earlier. Slide 13.13 Example: Portfolio Variance Slide 13.14 Another Example A-168 CHAPTER 13 Lecture Tip, page 423: Here are a few tips to pass along to students suffering from “statistics overload”: -The distribution is just the picture of all possible outcomes -The mean return is the central point of the distribution -The standard deviation is the average deviation from the mean -Assuming investor rationality (two-parameter utility functions), the mean is a proxy for expected return and the standard deviation is a proxy for total risk. 13.3. Announcements, Surprises, and Expected Returns A. Expected and Unexpected Returns Total return = expected return + unexpected return Thus, total return differs from expected return because of surprises, or “news.” This is one of the reasons that realized returns differ from expected returns. Slide 13.15 Expected versus Unexpected Returns B. Announcements and News Announcement – the release of information not previously available. Announcements have two parts: the expected part and the surprise part. The expected part is “discounted” information used by the market to estimate the expected return, while the surprise is news that influences the unexpected return. Discounted information is information that is already included in the expected return (and the price). The tie-in to efficient markets is obvious. The assumption here is that markets are semistrong efficient. Lecture Tip, page 424: It is easy to see the effect of unexpected news on stock prices and returns. Consider the following two cases: (1) On August 9, 2000 it was announced that Eli-Lilly’s prozac patent would not be extended, overturning a lower court decision. This was unexpected and the price dropped from $108.531 to $76.875 (a 29% drop) in one day. (2) On September 22, 2000, Intel issued an earnings warning, and its stock price CHAPTER 13 A-169 dropped from $61.468 to $47.937 (a 22% drop) in one day. There are plenty of other examples where unexpected news causes a change in price and expected returns. Slide 13.16 Announcements and News Slide 13.17 Efficient Markets 13.4. Risk: Systematic and Unsystematic A. Systematic and Unsystematic Risk Risk consists of surprises. There are two kinds of surprises: Systematic risk is a surprise that affects a large number of assets, although at varying degrees. It is sometimes called market risk. Unsystematic risk is a surprise that affects a small number of assets (or one). It is sometimes called unique or asset-specific risk. Example: Changes in GDP, interest rates and inflation are examples of systematic risk. Strikes, accidents and takeovers are examples of unsystematic risk. Lecture Tip, page 426: You can expand the discussion of the difference between systematic and unsystematic risk by using the example of a strike by employees. Students will generally agree that this is unique or unsystematic risk for one company. However, what if the UAW stages the strike against the entire auto industry. Will this action impact other industries or the entire economy? If the answer to this question is yes, then this becomes a systematic risk factor. The important point is that it is not the event that determines whether it is systematic or unsystematic risk; it is the impact of the event. Slide 13.18 Systematic Risk Slide 13.19 Unsystematic Risk B. Systematic and Unsystematic Components of Return Total return = expected return + unexpected return Total return = expected return + systematic portion + unsystematic portion Slide 13.20 Returns A-170 CHAPTER 13 13.5. Diversification and Portfolio Risk A. The Effect of Diversification: Another Lesson from Market History Portfolio variability can be quite different from the variability of individual securities. A typical single stock on the NYSE has a standard deviation of annual returns around 50%, while the typical large portfolio of NYSE stocks has a standard deviation of around 20%. Video Note: “Portfolio Management” looks at the value of diversification using Tower Records as an example. Slide 13.21 Diversification Slide 13.22 Table 13.7 B. The Principle of Diversification Principle of Diversification – principle stating that combining imperfectly correlated assets can produce a portfolio with less variability than the typical individual asset. The portion of variability present in a single security is not present in a portfolio of securities is called diversifiable risk. The level of variance that is present in collections of assets is nondiversifiable risk. Slide 13.23 The Principle of Diversification Slide 13.24 Figure 13.1 Slide 13.25 Diversifiable Risk International Note, page 429: Common sense suggests that, to the extent that national economies are less than perfectly positively correlated, there may be diversification benefits to be had by investing in foreign securities. Empirical research bears this notion out. For example, Solnik (Financial Analysts Journal, 1974) and Harvey (Journal of Finance, 1991) find that the returns on U.S. stocks are significantly less than perfectly positively correlated with returns on stocks in other industrialized countries. As a result, the potential for risk reduction is greater when you include international stocks in your portfolio. CHAPTER 13 A-171 C. Diversification and Unsystematic Risk When securities are combined into portfolios, their unique or unsystematic risks tend to cancel out, leaving only the variability that affects all securities to some degree. Thus, diversifiable risk is synonymous with unsystematic risk. Large portfolios have little or no unsystematic risk. D. Diversification and Systematic Risk Systematic risk cannot be eliminated by diversification since it represents the variability due to influences that affect all securities to some degree. Therefore, systematic risk and nondiversifiable risk are the same. Total risk = nondiversifiable risk + diversifiable risk = systematic risk + unsystematic risk Slide 13.26 Total Risk 13.6. Systematic Risk and Beta A. The Systematic Risk Principle The principle – The reward for bearing risk depends only on the systematic risk of the investment. The implication – The expected return on an asset depends only on that asset’s systematic risk. A corollary – No matter how much total risk an asset has, its expected return depends only on its systematic risk. Slide 13.27 Systematic Risk Principle Lecture Tip, page 430: The text states that “The underlying rationale for this principle is straightforward: Since unsystematic risk can be eliminated at virtually no cost (by diversifying), there is no reward for bearing it.” This is a crucial point and it is consistent with observed behavior. The rapid growth in mutual funds suggests that investors aggressively seek to diversify their holdings. Further, barriers to diversification are minimal: many A-172 CHAPTER 13 funds will open accounts with initial deposits as small as $500. Many company-sponsored retirement plans will open accounts with much less. B. Measuring Systematic Risk Beta coefficient – measures how much systematic risk an asset has relative to an asset of average risk. Slide 13.28 Measuring Systematic Risk Slide 13.29 Table 13.8 Click on the web surfer to go to www.stockscreener.com. You can use this web site to do the exercise discussed in the following lecture tip. Lecture Tip, page 431: The point that “the market does not reward risks that are borne unnecessarily,” should be strongly emphasized, possibly with a reference back to Figure 13.1 (Slide 13.24). Many investment companies offer investors a choice between income-oriented mutual funds, containing both bonds and stocks in established companies with higher dividend payouts, and growth-oriented funds that are typically composed of stocks of smaller companies that retain most of their earnings for reinvestment in the firm. Investors that desire growth-oriented funds typically assume a much greater degree of systematic risk and expect higher returns. However, both types of funds eliminate the unsystematic portion of risk through diversification. Lecture Tip, page 431: Students sometimes wonder just how high a stock’s beta can get. In earlier years, one would say that, while the average beta for all stocks must be 1.0, the range of possible values for any given beta is from - to +. Today, the Internet provides another way of addressing the question. Go to www.stockscreener.com. This site allows you to search many financial markets by fundamental criteria. For example, as of June 21, 2000, a search of “All Exchanges” for stocks with betas of at least 2.00 turns up 256 stocks. Restricting the search to the NYSE still turns up 46 stocks. Encourage students to experiment with this. Slide 13.30 Total versus Systematic Risk Slide 13.31 Work the Web Example CHAPTER 13 A-173 C. Portfolio Betas While portfolio variance is not a weighted average of the individual asset betas, portfolio betas are a weighted average of the individual asset betas. Example: Stock Amount Invested Portfolio Weight Beta Product IBM 6000 50.00% 1.11 .555 GM 4000 33.33% 1.05 .350 Wal-Mart 2000 16.67% 1.09 .182 Portfolio 10,000 100.00% 1.087 Slide 13.32 Example: Portfolio Betas Lecture Tip, page 433: All else equal, borrowing money will increase a firm’s equity beta because it increases the volatility of earnings. Robert Hamada derived the following equation to reflect the relationship between levered and unlevered betas. L = U(1 + D/E) where: L = equity beta of a levered firm; U = equity beta of an unlevered firm; D/E = debt-to-equity ratio 13.7. The Security Market Line A. Beta and the Risk Premium A riskless asset has a beta of 0.When a risky asset with >0, is combined with a riskless asset, the resulting expected return is the weighted sum of the expected returns and the portfolio beta is the weighted sum of the betas. By varying the amount invested in each asset, we can get an idea of the relation between portfolio expected returns and betas. This relationship is illustrated in Figure 11.2A. As can be seen, all of the risk-return combinations lie on a straight line. Remind the students that the equation for a line is: y = mx + b A-174 CHAPTER 13 where: y = expected return x = beta m = slope b = y-intercept = risk-free rate Introducing this equation now prepares the students for the SML and the CAPM. Slide 13.33 Beta and the Risk Premium Lecture Tip, page 434: The example in the book illustrates a greater than 100% investment in asset A. This means that the investor has borrowed money on margin (technically at the riskfree rate) and used that money to purchase additional shares of asset A. This can increase the potential returns, but it also increases the risk. Slide 13.34 Example: Portfolio Expected Returns and Betas Slide 13.35 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Definition and Example The Reward-to-Risk Ratio is the expected return per unit of systematic risk. In other words, it is the ratio of risk premium to systematic risk. The basic argument is that since systematic risk is all that matters in determining expected return, the reward-to-risk ratio must be the same for all assets. If it were not, people would buy the asset with the higher reward-to-risk ratio (driving up the price and down the return). The fundamental result is that in a competitive market where only systematic risk affects E(R), the reward-to-risk ratio must be the same for all assets in the market. Consequently, the expected returns and betas of all assets much plot on the same straight line. Slide 13.36 Market Equilibrium B. The Security Market Line The line that gives the expected return/systematic risk combinations of assets in a well functioning, active financial market is called the security market line. Slide 13.37 Security Market Line CHAPTER 13 A-175 Lecture Tip, page 439: Although the realized market risk premium has on average been approximately 8%, the historical average should not be confused with the anticipated risk premium for any particular future period. There is abundant evidence that the realized market return has varied greatly over time. The historical average value should be treated accordingly. On the other hand, there is currently no universally accepted means of coming up with a good ex ante estimate of the market risk premium, so the historical average might be as good a guess as any. In the late 1990’s, there was evidence that the risk premium had been shrinking. In fact, Alan Greenspan was concerned with the reduction in the risk premium because he was afraid that investors had lost sight of how risky stocks actually are. Investors have had a wake-up call in late 2000 and 2001. Market Portfolios: Consider a portfolio of all the assets in the market and call it the market portfolio. This portfolio, by definition, has “average” systematic risk with a beta of 1. Since all assets must lie on the SML when appropriately priced, the market portfolio must also lie on the SML. Let the expected return on the market portfolio = E(RM). Then, the slope of the SML = reward-torisk ratio = [E(RM) – Rf] / M = [E(RM) – Rf] / 1 = E(RM) – Rf The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Go back to the discussion of the equation of a line: E(Rj) = Rf + slope(j) E(Rj) = Rf + (E(RM) – Rf)(j) The CAPM states that the expected return for an asset depends on: -The time value of money, as measured by Rf -The reward per unit risk, as measured by E(RM) - Rf -The asset’s systematic risk, as measured by Slide 13.38 Slide 13.39 Slide 13.40 Slide 13.41 13.8. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Factors Affecting Expected Return Example – CAPM Figure 13.4 The SML and the Cost of Capital: A Preview A. The Basic Idea A-176 CHAPTER 13 We must determine an investment’s risk and then use the CAPM to determine the expected return on assets of similar risk. Lecture Tip, page 442: Students should remember that in an efficient market, security investments have a NPV = 0, on average. However, the NPV does not imply that a company’s investments in new projects must have an NPV of zero. Firms attempt to invest in projects with a positive NPV, and those that are consistently successful will trade at higher prices, all else equal. The ability to generate positive NPV projects reflects the fundamental differences in physical asset markets and financial asset markets. Physical asset markets are generally less efficient than financial asset markets, and cash flows to physical assets are often owner dependent. B. The Cost of Capital Cost of capital – the minimum expected return an investment must offer to be attractive. Sometimes referred to as the required return. 13.9. Summary and Conclusions Slide 13.42 Quick Quiz CHAPTER 13 A-177 APPENDIX A: CALCULATING BETA COEFFICIENTS In the chapter we noted that a beta coefficient measures the amount of systematic risk present in a particular risky asset relative to the average risky asset. (Later it was suggested that the market portfolio would serve as an appropriate proxy for the average risky asset.) Since risk is a function of the changes in, or “movement of” an asset’s price, systematic risk must be attributable to the movement in a risky asset’s price relative to the movement in the price of the average risky asset (or the market portfolio). Given the above, we should not be surprised to find that the beta coefficient is nothing more than a statistical measure of the relationship between the returns on asset j and the market portfolio. This relationship is most often quantified via the use of simple linear regression. Specifically, we estimate the following model: Rjt = j + jRMt + j Where: Rjt = the return on stock j in period t, RMt = the return on the market portfolio in period t, j, j = the intercept and the slope coefficients, respectively, and j = the random error term. The model above is called the “market model” and is usually estimated using daily or monthly historical returns. (Although there are no universally accepted guidelines, most people use approximately 250 daily returns, or 60 monthly returns to estimate the model.) The estimated coefficient in the model above is the beta referred to in the chapter. Although, it is beyond the scope of this book, it is possible to show that, given certain assumptions about the distribution of returns, the beta coefficient is equal to the correlation between returns on stock j and the market portfolio, times the product of the standard deviations of the returns on stock j and the market portfolio, all divided by the variance of the market returns. In equation form, j = j,MjM / 2M Consider the following monthly stock return data. Month Rj RM 1 .003 .013 2 .024 .017 3 .021 .012 4 -.015 .004 5 .005 .011 6 .022 .015 7 -.021 .011 8 .017 -.010 9 .018 .011 10 .028 .013 11 .032 .021 12 -.017 -.013 Expected Return .00975 .00875 Standard Deviation .0185 .0103 Correlation .50276 A-178 CHAPTER 13 According to the above equation, j = .50276(.0185)(.0103)/(.0103)2 = .903. Since, in a strict mathematical sense, the beta coefficient is simply an index measuring the statistical relationship between the returns on stock j and the market portfolio, we interpret the results to mean that the systematic risk of stock j is about 90 percent of that of the average stock. (Digression: This is the source of the terms “aggressive” and “defensive” as applied to stocks. Aggressive stocks are stocks with betas greater than 1.0; they are more volatile than the average stock and are, therefore, more suited to investors willing to take risks, i.e., to be aggressive. Of course, the opposite holds true for defensive stocks.) Notice that the beta equation also suggests that beta has the following properties. 1. 2. The beta of the market portfolio, M, must equal one. The beta of the risk-free asset must equal zero. Finally, it should be noted that most people need not bother to calculate betas for stocks they are interested in. Beta coefficients are computed by several firms (for example, Merrill Lynch, Standard and Poor’s Corporation, Value Line, and Moody’s) and appear in various publications, as well as at various sites on the Internet.