1 Handheld Computers and Accessories Industry Analysis Mike Thompson Professor Donavan Mathews 12:00PM Thursdays Innitec 2 Table of Contents Introduction 5 Industries Dominant Economic Features 5 Market Size 5 Scope of Rivalry 5 Growth Rate and at what Stage of the Industry 6 Number of Rivals and Their Relative Size 6 Prevalence of Forward Integration 7 Channels of Distribution 7 Pace of Process and Product Technology Change 8 Product Differentiation 8 The Extent of Economies of Scale in Purchasing 9 Advertising and Marketing 9 To What Extent do Learning Curves Exist? 10 Are High Rates of Capacity Utilization Important for profitability? 10 What are the Historical Levels of Profitability? 10 Segments within the Industry 11 How These Segments Affect Firms 11 Segment Competition 12 Porter's Five Forces Threat of Potential Entrants 12 12 3 Bargaining Power of Buyers 13 Bargaining Power of Suppliers 13 Threat of Substitutes 14 Intensity of Rivalry 14 Summary of Analysis 15 The Drivers of Change in the Industry and Impact They Will Have 15 Product Innovation & Technological Change 15 Entry/Exits of Major Firms 16 Diffusion of Technological Know-how 16 Changes in Costs and Efficiencies 17 Emerging Buyer Preferences 17 Companies in the Strongest/Weakest Positions 18 Palm Incorporated 18 Hewlett-Packard 18 Handspring 19 Key Success Factors for Competitive Success Key Success Factors Influencing Profitability Industry’s Attractiveness and Prospects for Long-Term Profitability Growth Potential 20 20 21 21 4 Competitive Forces 22 Driving Forces and Profitability 22 Future Strategic Positions 22 Avoiding Unattractive Forces 23 Degree of Uncertainty 24 Severity of Problems Confronting Industry 24 Which Types of Firms/Strategies seem to be Most Lucrative? 25 Is this an Attractive Industry in which to Participate? 25 Works Cited 26 5 Introduction The Handheld Computers and Accessories industry is one that is constantly changing. Once upon a time, the term “Personal Digital Assistant” simply meant a data organizer, with limited features such a calendar and an address book. As this analysis will show, times are changing. The Industry's Dominant Economic Features Market Size The size of the handheld computing market is considered to be quite large. As of 2001, a total of 19.4 million devices were sold from all around the globe. Nearly 11 million of these handheld computers were in the hands of Americans (“Handheld Computers Grown”). This is a significant increase from the mere 3 million units sold in the mid 90s (“Handheld Computing Devices”). Scope of Rivalry The handheld industry contains rivals from outside the industry. Rivals such as Dell and Hewlett-Packard have a significant share of the handheld market, even though they do not primarily compete in this industry (“Handheld Computing Devices”). 6 Growth Rate and What Stage of the Industry In the year 2000, the handheld industry boomed and saw an 88% growth in terms of devices shipped. Almost half of this total was coming strictly from the U.S. market. In 2001, the industry noticed a slight decrease in growth, growing by only 43%. Stability in growth has been predicted by IDC (International Data Corp), who believes that until the end of the year 2005, an annual growth rate of about 40% can be expected (“Handheld Computing Devices”). As handheld devices have been around for about 12 years, starting with the apple MessagePad, the industry is still a young one with technological standards yet to be established. Also, one of the earliest emerging handheld companies, Palm Incorporated, has managed to capture a significant amount of the market share (“Handheld Computing Devices”). From these facts, it is implied that the Handheld Computers and Accessories industry is at the far end of the emerging stage and approaching maturity. Number of Rivals and Their Relative Size Currently, Hoovers Online shows that roughly fifty companies are competing with each other in the Handheld Computers and Accessories industry. As of 2003, nearly 75% of the PDA (Personal Digital Assistant) market was controlled by merely 3 companies. Palm Incorporated (formerly PalmOne) held about 43% of the market, while Hewlett-Packard held 15.2% and finally Sony held 14.8% of the market share. Research in Motion, as well as Dell, also have a 7 small share of the market, averaging about 7% each. All other companies in the handheld industry collectively make up for the remaining 8.6% of the market (Market Share Reporter). Prevalence of Forward Integration Forward integration is quite prevalent in the Handheld Computers and Accessories Industry. Many of the handheld devices are sold directly from the manufacturer via the internet. Old sales approaches such as retail and catalogs meant more involvement in the value chain process. Because manufacturers are selling directly over the internet, companies are able to shorten the amount of time and effort it takes to get their products to the consumer (“Handheld Computing Devices”). Channels of Distribution As handheld devices are growing in popularity, the channels used for distribution are changing just as rapidly. Before these devices were widely accepted, a majority of the business was done through catalogs and retail. Nowadays, with technology changing, a majority of orders have been placed through the internet and by directly purchasing from manufacturers. The reason for this shift, as predicted by IDC, is because it is simply cheaper to go directly to the manufacturer (“Handheld Computing Devices”). 8 Pace of Process and Product Technology Change The technology of handheld computers is changing at a rapid pace. At the turn of the century, two new types of wireless communications were introduced. Bluetooth, first introduced in 1998, allowed high-bandwidth data transfer over short distances. Products were immediately rolled out in 1999, supporting this new technology. A mere 2 years later, in the early 2000s, a new standard had emerged. WiFi (IEEE 802.11b) technology came full equipped with more bandwidth capacity over even longer ranges than Bluetooth could support. Just like that, Bluetooth was basically obsolete (“Handheld Computing Devices”). Product Differentiation Back in the infancy of the handheld industry, devices were merely overvalued calendars, with organizing functionality. However, the nuts and bolts that make up these devices have taken a turn for the best since then. Today, it is not uncommon for handhelds to have full wireless access to the web, including email. There are, however, significant differences between devices. There is no one handheld that is going to do anything and everything. For instance, for your average Joe, the Palm m100 will suffice, costing about $150 and doing everything your average consumer needs, such as: Calendars, contacts, tasks and can run applications that you may find on the internet. However, business users wanting something with a little more power might want to give Pocket PCs a try. Pocket PCs, such as the Hewlett-Packard Jornada (about $490) run off of Microsoft’s 9 new operating system Windows CE. These “PCs” come well equipped with full, simplified versions of Internet Explorer, allowing you to surf the web from the palm of your hand. Not only does it have internet access, these Pocket PCs also come with a high resolution, back-lit display that is appealing and easy on the eyes. If one looks carefully, it is apparent that there exists a product differentiation between handhelds in the market today (“Handheld Computers Vary Widely”). The Extent of Economies of Scale in Purchasing With monster companies such as Dell and Hewlett-Packard running around the handheld industry, you can certainly expect to see economies of scale influencing prices. Large companies such as Palm, HP and Research in Motion have excessive amounts of capital to put towards purchasing materials in bulk. Because of this advantage, it’s very difficult for new companies to enter the industry, unless the company is already very successful in another industry and is simply testing the market (Fortt). Advertising and Marketing Within the Handheld Computers and Accessories industry, marketing and advertising have taken the proverbial back seat. One will notice there are few, if any, commercials on television advertising a new handheld. The extent of marketing in this industry goes as far as product marketing, which simply leaves consumers wandering aimlessly trying to find the product that suits their needs. 10 “To grow a segment rapidly—or recover a failing segment—often takes an industry wide effort. A central group should be funded to drive demand to this class of hardware. When Palm was practically the only game in town, efforts of this sort were de facto centralized, and handheld computers spread quickly. The entry of other players has blurred this segment focus and deterred customers from upgrading” (Enderle). To What Extent do Learning Curves Exist? In the late 90s, handhelds were easily found in retail stores nationwide or even in catalogs. Nowadays, companies such as Palm, HP and Research in Motion are finding cheaper solutions to get their product to consumers. It is not uncommon to see manufacturers selling directly to consumers via corporate web sites. There have been no apparent leaps in terms of more efficiently producing handhelds (“Handheld Computing Devices”). Are High Rates of Capacity Utilization Important for Profitability? For a company to experience profitable gains in an industry as expensive as handheld computers, capacity utilization needs to be hovering at high levels. The semiconductors from which the handhelds get their hardware are not cheap and having large portions of product lines sitting idle is crippling to a company, or the industry as a whole (“Palm-Handspring May”). What are the Historical Levels of Profitability? 11 As of late, the industry has been very profitable, even though growth is slowing down (“Palm Inc.”). Palm Incorporated, boasting some 700 employees, achieved a net income of $66 million this year. This is a nice change, since Palm had been seeing company losses for the past 4 years. The industry leader is not the only company making gains these days. Companies such as Research In Motion, are making considerable amounts of profit with the release of their twoway e-mail handheld known as the BlackBerry. Research in Motion witnessed a net income of $213 million this year-to-date, and is expected to exceed this amount by 2006 (“Research in Motion Limited”). Segments within the Industry Currently, within the Handheld Computers and Accessories industry, there exists two segments. Personal Digital Assistants and Palmtops make up the bulk of this industry. Palmtops are basically more powerful handhelds that have the appearance of, and are often mistaken for, a notebook. Both of these segments are similar, however, there are differences (“Handheld Computing Devices”). How these Segments Affect Firms Personal Digital Assistants are a fairly simple device, tailoring to the general consumers needs. With the emergence of the “palmtop” segment, companies had to rethink their strategies, as users created different requirements. Palmtops come with robust features that are most useful in a professional environment. Because of their complexity, Palmtops tend to run off of the 12 Windows CE operating system, not the more simplified Palm OS. Palm introduced a new product known as the Palm VTM, running on their own OS, which is appealing to consumers and professionals alike (“IDC confirms”). Segment Competition As far as PDAs go, competition is primarily controlled by Palm and Research in Motion. However, competition is fierce in the Palmtop segment, with companies such as Dell and Hewlett-Packard struggling for their share of the market. Dell introduced its Axim X51v, which boasts an impressive amount of firepower, yet it’s bulky and costly running at about $500. Hewlett-Packard introduced its iPaq rx1950, which doesn’t quite have the specs that Dell’s Axim does, yet is much more affordable at $200 and features a much slimmer design (“Handhelds Get a Boost”). Porter's Five Forces Threat of Potential Entrants In the handheld computer industry, there exists a high amount of entry barriers. Economies of scale are somewhat prevalent in this industry, with Palm, HP, Dell, and Research in Motion purchasing large amounts of resources to manufacture their raw materials. With these companies controlling much of the market, a new entrant would need a large amount of capital to be able to offer products at a competitive price. There also tends to be a fair amount of brand loyalty in the handheld industry, with a majority 13 of consumers sticking with Hewlett-Packard, Research in Motion, and Palm Incorporated (“Gartner Says”). With the handheld industry, many of the distribution channels are spawned from the internet and directly from the manufacturer, making access to these channels somewhat trivial (“Handheld Computing Devices”). Even through distribution access is not a problem; there is a substantial amount of intense competition amongst powerhouses in the industry. Primarily, Palm, HP, and RIM are competing for their chunk of the market share, leaving possible starter companies in the dust. The threat of potential entrants in the handheld industry can easily be considered low, since a company wishing to enter this industry needs to have a substantial amount of capital and be forced to compete amongst the giants. Bargaining Power of Buyers Buyers in the handheld industry have very little power when it comes to bargaining. Such a limitation can be blamed on that fact that there are so many buyers, and when it comes to purchasing handheld devices, a typical consumer would only purchase one. The only time you would expect to see handhelds bought in bulk would be through business deals. Also, compared to other industries, purchases are very small with products being highly differentiated. The only noticeable variable that gives buyers any kind of bargaining power is their ability to instantly switch from one seller to another. Aside from that variable, the overall bargaining power of buyers is considered to be low (Fortt). Bargaining Power of Suppliers 14 Suppliers in the industry have a substantial amount of control in terms of bargaining power. A huge reason for this can be attributed to the fact that there are so few suppliers in the industry. Another reason that suppliers have so much bargaining power is because of their ability to integrate forward and compete with the buying industry. As stated earlier, a large portion of sales come directly from the manufacturer. Retail and resellers are a thing of the past for the Handheld Computers and Accessories industry. This is the same across the two segments of the industry: Personal Digital Assistants and the hybrid Palmtops (“Handheld Computing Devices”). Threat of Substitutes In the handheld industry, the threat of substitutes is fairly evident. Consumers can easily purchase a laptop, or even a cell phone, instead of a handheld device. Not to mention, there are a number of different handheld companies competing for their share of the market. Companies such as Palm, Hewlett-Packard, Dell, Nokia, Samsung, and Research in Motion are respectable companies to buy from (“Handheld Computers Vary”). Respective to other industries, the handheld industry has a moderate amount of substitutes available. From the preceding information, the handheld industry faces a moderate threat to substitutes, making the industry less attractive to go into. Intensity of Rivalry The rivalry between companies in the handheld industry is one of the most intense rivalries one can witness. Industry growth is slow, fixed costs in semiconductors to make the products are high, products are differentiated and there are a number of competitors in 15 the market all fighting for their share. One of the most heated rivalries in the handheld industry is between Research in Motion (with the release of their blackberry) and Palm Incorporated (who recently acquired handspring). Because of the intense rivalry amongst the industry giants, the threat to industry profitability is going to be increased (Market Share Reporter). An increase in the threat of profitability makes the industry less attractive to enter. Summary of Analysis After analyzing each of Porter’s five forces, the overall attractiveness of the industry can be assessed. Threat of substitutes is to be considered moderate, while the threat of new entrants is low. Bargaining power of buyers is slightly above low, while the intensity of rivalries in the handheld industry has never been higher. With the small amount of suppliers available in this industry, their bargaining power is quite high. From all of these variables, the overall attractiveness of the industry can be considered medium. The Drivers of Change in the Industry and Impact They Will Have Product Innovation & Technological Change As the handheld industry is an emerging one, product innovation and technological change are going to be rampant. New technologies can cause the industry to shift in a new direction, as it is happening in this industry now. Wireless communications is becoming a very noticeable feature in handhelds 16 today, which forces the industry to compete with smart phones and other devices that give the user a web-based, interactive experience. Palm’s first response to wireless craze was the introduction of their new handheld, the Palm VII model, loaded with full-fledged wireless capabilities through palm.net, their wireless subscription service. IBM and other companies alike jumped on the wireless bandwagon and just like that the industry had shifted (“Handheld Computing Devices”). Entry/Exits of Major Firms Firms entering and leaving an industry can greatly impact the way an industry operates. For instance, in 2003 Palm held nearly 40 percent of the handheld computer industry. If a company as large as Palm left the industry, a large chunk of the market would vanish and allow new product lines to emerge, reshaping the standards of the industry. Rivals of Palm, such as Hewlett-Packard and Dell, could use this opportunity to push their products as the new industry leading standard (“Handheld Computing Devices”). Diffusion of Technological Know-how Integration of rival technologies is one way to shift the industry. In October of this year, Palm, the handheld giant, has announced it will be incorporating the Windows Mobile operating system into its Treo smart phones early next year. This is a huge deal considering Palm created its own operating system for its devices years ago. The consolidation of Windows Mobile should 17 shift Microsoft’s operating system to become the most dominant one in the handheld industry, as well as begin to introduce some product standards (“Socket Communications Reports”). Changes in Costs and Efficiencies Every now and then, a technological leap occurs that can greatly reduce the costs of an industry, as well as increase efficiency. One of the leading complaints with handhelds today is their battery life, especially as they have become feature rich with more processing power and improved graphics (“Handheld Computing Devices”). National Semiconductor recently introduced a new energy management unit that reduces the overall power expenditure in the processors of handheld devices by as much as seventy percent (“National Semiconductor”). This reduction in power consumption could allow handhelds to be more feature rich with bringing things such as brighter screens and higher resolutions to the market. Emerging Buyer Preferences In a technologically heavy environment, such as the handheld industry, the wants and needs of buyers can greatly impact what is being released on the market. One could even blame the poor history of this industry to be caused by companies focusing too much on what their competitors are doing and not actually listening to what buyers are in need of. Palm saw this ugly trend in the 18 industry and instantly purchased Handspring Incorporated in an effort to give the buyers what they want. The 600 model offered data, voice communication and several computing features all rolled into one easy to use handheld. Research in Motion also answered the call from buyers and released the BlackBerry handheld, with features very similar to the 600 from Palm. Because these two companies have been able to adapt to buyer preferences, they have become very successful (Enderle). Companies in the Strongest/Weakest Positions Palm Incorporated In the third quarter of 2005, Palm incorporated has not lived up to its name as the king of handhelds. Shipping a mere 475,000 units so far, Palm seems to find itself slipping and losing a large portion of the market share it once controlled. With Palm no longer the head honcho, their position in the industry is becoming less desirable, as they now hold only 14 percent of the market (“Gartner Says”). Through the bad times, Palm Incorporated has held consistent with its strategy of keeping its brand clear and products simple, yet it is believed that the simplicity of their products have caused Palm to lose its customer base to the more snazzy, feature rich products offered by companies such as Hewlett-Packard who hold a quite desirable position in the industry (“Handheld Computing Devices”). 19 Hewlett-Packard In 2005, Hewlett-Packard has been showing some very impressive numbers in terms of units shipped. HP has positioned itself in the industry to target the high-end market with its iPAQ line of handhelds, boasting better quality graphics and much more processing power than its competitors such as Palm. These products sported a much higher price tag than their competitors, also offering better quality. HP later took a strategic step forward and acquired Compaq in a $23 billion deal during 2002. This strategic move gave HP full rights to the very successful iPAQ product line. The attractiveness of this position is quite high, as they work with Microsoft’s operating system, Windows CE, bringing multimedia and an abundance of wireless communications to the table (“Handheld Computing Devices”). Their new business strategy to target the highend market is working very well, as they have surpassed Palm in terms of units shipped for the 3rd quarter of 2005 with 550,000 units (“Gartner Says”). Handspring In the early 2000s, Handspring tried to tackle Palm head on with its new line of handheld devices. This company tried to take a similar position that Palm did, offering a cheap, easy to use, and feature-rich handheld device. At the time of Handsprings emergence, the consumer market was not as mature as the business market. As such, Handspring took the strategic direction towards the consumer side of the market (“Handheld Computing Devices”). One unique thing about Handspring was its line of smart phones known as the Treo. This product 20 put handspring in a very appealing position in the industry, as everyone wanted their technology. Palm and Hewlett-Packard tried to mimic their technology but never captured the true power of the Treo. Even though Handspring had a stronghold on wireless communications in the Handheld Industry, there was something missing, as earnings in 2003 began to sink to dangerously low levels. The ease and simplicity of Palm’s handhelds were far superior. However, Palm was running into product issues as well, missing the wireless connectivity they were hoping to achieve. Both companies noticed the gap in their products, which eventually lead Palm Incorporated acquiring Handspring in late 2003. Combining forces with Palm has put Handspring in a very desirable position in the industry, whereas before, Handspring was struggling to stay afloat (Enderle). Key Success Factors for Competitive Success Key Success Factors Influencing Profitability There are three strong factors in this industry that determine if a company succeeds or fails. One of the biggest factors is the breadth of a company’s product line and product selection. In researching this industry, it has been discovered that there is a big difference between consumer handhelds, and business (or professional) handhelds. In order for a company to appeal to a large portion of the market, products must be created for both sides of the industry. The ability to offer innovative products and continuously improve old products is another very important key to success in the handheld industry. As stated earlier, 21 the handheld industry is making a shift towards wireless connectivity (“Handheld Computing Devices”). Without adapting to the consumers wants and needs, companies will surely fall behind and exit the industry. The third factor of success and profitability in the industry is having a favorable image or reputation amongst consumers. For example, Palm Incorporated got in on the handheld craze early and has held a substantial amount of the market ever since. HewlettPackard grabbed a considerable amount of loyal customers with its acquisition of Compaq, adding the iPaq product line to its repertoire. The preceding key success factors do not vary by segment. The two segments in the industry are simply Personal Digital Assistants and the hybrid model Palmtops. The same rules apply to this segment as well, as they are very similar to a PDA. Over time, the key success factors for this industry are likely to remain constant. However, it is possible that proper marketing and advertising could become a critical factor of success. Earlier in this analysis, it was mentioned that a lack of marketing has left consumers confused as to what they actually need (Enderle). If a company were to actually take charge and market their product effectively, it could present itself to the industry as a new key success factor. Industry’s Attractiveness and Prospects for Long-Term Profitability Growth Potential The potential for growth is present, observing financials from the industry leaders. Revenues are at a peak and net incomes for companies such as Palm and Hewlett-Packard are up, as opposed to being “in the red” previous years. 22 Convergence of cell phones and PDAs are also excelling growth in the industry, as Nokia witnessed a 300% growth this quarter. Competitive Forces Competition in the Handheld Computers and Accessories industry should continue to strengthen. The reason behind this being, Palm is quickly losing its market share to Hewlett-Packard and Research in Motion, with their high-end devices. Palm knows what it feels like to be at the top of the industry, and I believe that Hewlett-Packard slipping by them this quarter is going to do nothing but awaken a sleeping giant, sparking fierce competitive action. Driving Forces and Profitability The forces driving change in handhelds today are pushing the industry in the right direction. Incorporating wireless connectivity and the gradual acceptance of Windows CE as a standard handheld operating system will do nothing but good things for the industry. With standards comes efficiency and with efficiency comes profitability. Future Strategic Positions Hewlett-Packard seems to be on track with its line of iPaq handhelds. This quarter, Hewlett-Packard finally surpassed Palm in terms of units shipped, so they must be doing something right. I believe that Hewlett-Packard can keep this momentum going because they’ve done a great job capturing the high-end market 23 with their fast processors and quality devices. Not to mention they recently acquired Compaq, which is responsible for a large amount of their handheld gains this year. Hewlett-Packard should continue to work its way to the top of the handheld industry. Palm faces a difficult future, as it continues to lose market share. Palm emerged as the industry leader in the 90s, but will they be able to keep up with the times and continue to adapt to the constantly changing industry? With the recent acquisition of Handspring, Palm now has an upper hand on the shift into the wireless market, thanks to the Treo product line of smart phones. Palm possesses the necessary attributes to climb back towards the top of the industry. It’s safe to predict that the current leaders in the market this year will be leaders for quite some time. Avoiding Unattractive Forces The unattractive forces facing this industry are simply rivalry among existing firms, as well as the threat of substitutes. Rivalry is unavoidable if you intend to succeed in any industry, but there are ways to avoid becoming a victim of substitution. As this industry thrives off consumers preferences, a company expecting to do well might want to tailor their products specifically to meet the needs of the consumer. As was observed earlier, many companies get caught up in competing with each others technology that they simply forget what buyers are looking for. Also, as this industry tends to worship product differentiation, making a handheld stand out from the rest of the competition is a good way to keep consumers interested. 24 Degree of Uncertainty When looking at the Handheld Computer industry, it’s clear that there is still a small degree of uncertainty. As mentioned earlier in the stock report for Palm Incorporated from the Standard & Poor’s database, it is recommended to hold on to the stock. However, the industry should still be approached with caution, as declining growth has been witnessed by companies such as Palm, an industry leader. Not to mention, there are a number of companies entering the market specifically to try and top Palm’s line of Treo smart phones. Severity of Problems Confronting Industry Currently, there seems to be three issues confronting the industry today. One, there is a huge lack of standards. For instance, there is a huge battle between using Palm OS or Windows CE on a variety of handhelds. Standards are necessary to fuel industry growth. Second, as handhelds are becoming more and more feature-rich, battery life is becoming a huge issue. However, as mentioned earlier, research is being done to implement methanol fuel cells into batteries that can greatly extend battery life. Finally, a huge problem the industry is facing is incorrect use of marketing. With such a focus on product marketing, there is really nobody to inform consumers as to what is useful and what they need. When Palm was the only company with dominant market share, it was well understood what features were important. Now with many competitors, it is all a haze. 25 Which Types of Firms/Strategies seem to be Most Lucrative? Hewlett-Packard tends to be doing quite well in the industry with its current strategy of targeting the high-end market. Palm is also doing quite well, as observed by their market share, by being the inexpensive, simplistic and consumer driven company. The industry tends to revolve around product differentiation and is very rarely affected by cost leadership, as with most technology-based industries. Is this an Attractive Industry in which to Participate? Based on the research done and the Porter’s analysis of the industry, it can safely be concluded that the attractiveness of the Handheld Computers and Accessories industry is mediocre. 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