Fair Value and FVA – A Quant’s Perspective Shahram Alavian*† Royal Bank of Scotland Shahram.Alavian@rbs.com 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin February 6, 2014 *The opinions expressed are those of the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the author's employer, or any member of its staff. †The author is grateful to Quantitative Analytics Group’s support at RBS. All errors are author’s. Disclaimer The information contained herein has been prepared by the author. Opinions expressed may differ from the opinions of the author’s employer, The Royal Bank of Scotland plc, and its affiliates (together “RBS”). Views expressed herein are not intended to be and should not be viewed as advice or as a recommendation from the author or RBS. The author and RBS make no representation and give no advice in respect of any tax, legal or accounting matters in any applicable jurisdiction. You should make your own independent evaluation of the relevance and adequacy of the information contained in this document and make such other investigations as you deem necessary, including obtaining independent financial advice, before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities referred to in this document. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. The information contained herein is proprietary to RBS and is being provided to selected recipients and may not be given (in whole or in part) or otherwise distributed to any other third party without the prior written consent of RBS. RBS and its respective connected companies, employees or clients may have an interest in financial instruments of the type described in this document and/or in related financial instruments. Such interest may include dealing in, trading, holding or acting as market-makers in such instruments and may include providing banking, credit and other financial services to any company or issuer of securities or financial instruments referred to herein. Trading desks may also have or take positions inconsistent with this material. This marketing communication is intended for distribution only to major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(a)(2) of the U.S. Securities Act 1934. Any U.S. recipient wanting further information or to effect any transaction related to this trade idea must contact RBS Securities Inc., 600 Washington Boulevard, Stamford, CT, USA. Telephone: +1 203 897 2700. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. Registered in Scotland No. 90312. Registered Office: 36 St Andrew Square, Edinburgh EH2 2YB. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. The Royal Bank of Scotland N.V., established in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Registered with the Chamber of Commerce in The Netherlands, No. 33002587. Authorised by De Nederlandsche Bank N.V. and regulated by the Authority for the Financial Markets in The Netherlands. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc is in certain jurisdictions an authorised agent of The Royal Bank of Scotland N.V. and The Royal Bank of Scotland N.V. is in certain jurisdictions an authorised agent of The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. All rights reserved. This communication is for the use of intended recipients only and the contents may not be reproduced, redistributed, or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without The Royal Bank of Scotland plc’s prior express consent. Copyright © 2013 RBS Securities Inc. All rights reserved. RBS Securities Inc. member FINRA (http://www.finra.org) / SIPC (http://www.sipc.org), is a subsidiary of The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. RBS is the marketing name for the securities business of RBS Securities Inc. 2 Motivation Debt Value Adjustment (DVA) has been around for some time now “The twelve months ended December 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012 include positive (negative) revenue of $(681) million and $(4,402) million, respectively, related to the movement in DVA.“ , [Notes, Morgan Stanley, Q4 (2013)]. On the other hand, the fair value guidelines from financial accounting standards for funding cost are still unclear if not absent. Nevertheless, Funding cost is starting to be included in fair value adjustments “For the first time this quarter, we were able to clearly observe the existence of funding costs in market clearing levels … As a result, the Firm recorded a $1.5B loss this quarter … FVA – which represents a spread over LIBOR – has the effect of “present valuing” market funding costs into the value of derivatives today, rather than accruing the cost over the life of the derivatives..”, [JPMorgan Q4 (2013)] . Question Under fair value accounting, what would be the relationship between FVA and DVA? and how would it impact the P&L in the trading book? Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 3 In a Nutshell Statement Under fair value accounting of DVA and FVA, a trading book’s funding cost offsets the DVA [due to changes in its bond prices]. Bond price movements should no longer impact the trading book’s P&L. Approach Define “Fair Value Adjustment” as an access over the default free price Define a simple economy of a firm, its counterparty and a liquid funding market Assign two total adjustments to the firm; one facing the market, and another, its counterparty. Each adjustment is a net of both Credit and Funding adjustments. Show that in the market facing adjustment, the funding cost offsets the market facing DVA. This would be our main result. Main Assumption A firm’s fair value adjustment should obey the conservation of value. This means that its cost should be its counterpart’s benefit and vice versa. If not, the firm can create fictitious loss or profit. Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 4 Formulating “Fair Value Adjustment” 1. Fair valuation guidelines (such as FAS157, IFRS13) aim to bring balance sheet transparency and standardization to the investors and the firm’s management. Fair value adjustment’s objective is to include the impact of the credit (default risk) on the price of the asset (at the point of exit from the market) 2. Define “Fair Value Adjustment” as the difference between the fair value and the default free price. ∆ ≡ V (t ) − V (t ) (1) Adjustment Fair Value Default Free Price 4. [Assumption] Under fair value accounting, a firm should follow the “Conservation of Value”: One Counterparty’s benefit(cost) is its counterparty’s cost(benefit). Adjustment = Cost + Benefit ( 2) Credit = CC + CB * Funding [FVA] = FC + FB (3) ( 4) CC = Credit Cost [CVA] CB = Credit Benefit [DVA] FC = Funding Cost FB = Funding Benefit *To remain consistent with the rest of the presentation we continue to use CB and CC to refer to DVA and CVA, respectively. Remark: For conservation of value to hold, an adjustment should “face” an entity that holds the offsetting position, only. If not, fictitious loss or profit is created. Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 5 Funding Value Adjustment (FVA) 1. We define FVA as the credit adjustment to the value of a default risk free cash account, wholly allocated to fund positions of a single portfolio. 2. The adjustment can either be positive (funding benefit) or negative (funding cost) 3. The adjustment faces the entity that pays(receives) interest into(from) the cash account, only. 4. Therefore, a counterparty faces a firm’s FVA if it pays or receives interest, not just coupon. Some Examples of Who a Firm Could Face for its FVA Counterparty Firm receives a spread over OIS in a back-to-back trade between two collateralized counterparties. It has a funding benefit facing each counterparty. Market Firm receives OIS from the counterparty and pays above OIS to the market: funding cost to the market, only. Market + Counterparty Firm receives spread from counterparty and pays spread to the market. Firm has a funding benefit facing the counterparty and funding cost facing the market OIS+s Collateralized Counterparty1 Figure 1 OIS Firm OIS OIS+s cash Money Market cash Firm OIS+s OIS cash Money Market cash Firm OIS+s1 Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 OIS+s2 Collateralized Counterparty2 One-way CSA Counterparty MTM>0 One-way CSA Counterparty MTM>0 6 Defining Market and the Firm Money Market (“Market”) 1. Definition: By “Market” we mean an entity that borrows or lends money through its participants. It is a conceptual entity incorporating all its active participants. When we make a market facing adjustment, we do so facing this entity. 2. In this presentation, we denote ∆M to refer to the total fair value adjustment of a firm facing the market. 3. Market borrows when a firm invests its access cash and lends when a firm borrows for its funding needs. 4. [Assumption] Market does not default. 5. Market is transparent to all its participants. It has no adjustments. Firm’s Trading Book 1. Under a bilateral trade, each counterparty has a financial commitment towards the other. 2. The variation of these credit hybrid contingent commitments around the default free ones generates either a benefit (positive) or a cost (negative) adjustment. 3. In this presentation, we denote ∆ to refer to the total fair value adjustment of a firm facing the counterparty. Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 7 A Simple Economy 1. Our economy is made up of a firm, its counterparty and the money market. 2. In this economy, the money market is the source of the funding for both the firm and its counterparty. 3. At any given time, either the firm or the counterparty is in need of funding. 4. With no loss of generality, we assume it is the firm. Figure 2 ∆ Counterparty Firm ∆M Money Market 5. The firm faces two sources: The money market and its counterparty. Its total adjustment (∆Firm) is composed of the market facing adjustment (∆M) and the counterparty facing adjustment (∆): ∆Firm = ∆ + ∆M ( 2) 7. The money market has no adjustments. Due to the firm’s conservation of value, ∆M = 0. (3) In a trading book, the fair value adjustments are those facing the counterparty, only. ∆Firm = ∆ Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 ( 4) 8 Fair Value Adjustment – Formulation 1. To each adjustment we assign a Credit and a Funding ∆ = Credit + Funding ∆ M = Credit M + Funding M Figure 3 (5) ( 6) Counterparty 2. Market has no adjustments ( ∆M = 0 ). ∆ M = CC M + CBM + FC M + FB M = 0 (7) ∆ 3. Market never defaults (CCM = 0). Therefore, it only borrows at risk free rate (FBM = 0). Our final expression is CBM + FC M = 0 (8) Firm Remarks* The above relationship says that the market facing DVA(CBM ) is always offset by the market facing funding cost(FCM). Practically speaking, we should still expect some residual due to the mismatch between the liability and the funding needs’ maturities. Calculating FCM allows us to carve out CBM from the aggregate liability benefit. The phrase “market facing” is important as the counterparty facing Funding Adjustment follows the same logic as the counterparty Credit Adjustment. ∆M Money Market *In the Appendix, we will derive the expression for the funding cost. Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 9 Example*: Fair Value This! A default free counterparty sells a one year, uncollateralized, European option to the firm (1 year PD = PFirm ) for which it receives the full premium, $1, up-front. Calculate the firm’s initial adjustments (assume 0 interest rate and loss given default = LGD). Funding = 0 Counterparty Facing (CVA) The counterparty does not default The counterparty has no exposure to the firm (9) CC = 0 CB = 0 (11) ∆=0 (12) (10) *For illustration purposes only Premium CB M = + LGD PFirm ∆ M = CB M + FC M = 0 Spread The firm borrows for one year to fund the premium The liability bond is priced below risk free by, Firm Bond Market Facing Total Adjustment CFM = − LGD PFirm Premium The counterparty pays or receives no interest Default Free Counterparty Option Counterparty Facing (FVA) Figure 4 (13) (14) Money Market (15) Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 10 Example Let’s work out a couple of questions on this example Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 11 Example: Questions Question Surely, we should have been able to apply the funding cost through discounting the position, right? Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 12 Example: Questions Aggregate entity Default Free Counterparty Premium Option Q1: What is wrong with applying the funding cost through discounting the position? (that old chestnut, again!)? A1: This essentially means that we are applying the funding cost facing the uncollaterallized counterparty while we should have faced the market. To see the consequence of that, consider an investor who owns both the firm and the counterparty. The aggregate firm would now end up with no funding cost (due to offsetting impact of the mtm) and positive credit benefit (CBM > 0), generating fictitious value for the aggregate entity. This would invalidate the conservation of the value we started with. Firm Premium Spread Bond Money Market Figure 5 Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 13 Example: Questions Question Could we have generated a funding benefit? Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 14 Example: Questions Default Free Counterparty Premium Firm Premium Spread Bond A2 (Different view): Imagine a second identical counterparty entering in the new reduced-notional trade. According to the previous slide, we would still have a funding cost and a CB(DVA) (albeit, reduced). So the change from the full notional to the reduced notional trade should bring us to the reduced funding cost and a reduced CB(DVA)-> no funding benefit! Aggregate entity Option Q2: We reduce the firm’s exposure. We surely create a funding benefit, don’t we? A2: No. We have only reduced the funding cost. A reduction of funding cost does not produce a funding benefit in the same way that a reduction of CC(CVA) does not produce a CB(DVA). The funding cost will still offsets the reduced market facing CB(DVA) since the difference in MTM will be used to pay down the debt. Remark: While “funding benefit” is only a name, one can never initiate an uncollateralized position to generate a funding benefit without taking on risk; defeating the spirit of positive adjustment. Money Market Figure 5 *For illustration purposes only Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 15 What We Talked About We Started With 1. [Scope] for us, fair value adjustments covered only Credit and Funding Adjustments. 2. Market has no fair value adjustments facing participants (firms). 3. [Assumption] market does not default. 4. [Assumption] In fair value accounting, firms should obey conservation of value. We Concluded That 1. Total fair value adjustment facing the market is 0. 2. Under fair value accounting market facing funding cost and DVA (due to bond price movement) offset each other. Thank you! Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 16 Appendix – General Expression for Funding Cost We defined FVA to be the credit adjustment to the present value of the cash account allocated to fund a default free position. Conditional on the firm surviving to t-δ , risky cash account , CȦ(t), will grow similar to the risk free account, CA(t), if the firm continues to survive and pays 1-LGD if it defaults (assuming instantaneous payout on default) + − ( A.1) C A& (t ) = CA (t ) + CA (t ) (1 τ > t + (1 − LGD ) ⋅ 1 τ ≤ t ) ⋅ 1 τ > t − δ = CA (t ) + CA (t ) (1 − 1 τ ≤ t + (1 − LGD ( A.2) = CA (t ) + CA (t ) (1 − 1 τ ≤ t + 1 τ ≤ t − ( A.3) + − + − )⋅ 1τ ≤t )⋅ 1τ >t −δ LGD ⋅ 1 τ ≤ t ) ⋅ 1 τ > t − δ = CA (t ) + CA (t ) (1 − LGD ⋅ 1 τ ≤ t ) ⋅ 1 τ > t − δ ( A.4) = CA (t ) + CA (t ) ⋅ 1 τ > t − δ − CA (t ) ⋅ LGD ⋅ 1 t ≥ τ > t − δ ( A.5) + − + − − with CA(0) = -V(0). If we define FC (t1 , t2 ) [FC (0, 0) = 0] as the accrued funding cost between t1 and t2 , dFC (t,t) would be the instantaneous funding cost defined by { } dFC (t , t ) = CA(t ) − CA& (t ) 1τ ,τ c >t −δ Expanding the above, { ( A.6) } dFC (t , t ) = CA(t ) − CA& (t ) 1τ ,τ c >t −δ { = {CA(t ) ( A.7) } = CA(t ) + CA(t ) − CA(t ) − CA(t ) ⋅ 1τ >t −δ + CA(t ) ⋅ LGD ⋅ 1t ≥τ >t −δ 1τ ,τ c >t −δ + − − + − − } − CA(t ) ⋅ 1τ >t −δ + CA(t ) ⋅ LGD ⋅ 1t ≥τ >t −δ 1τ ,τ c >t −δ − − ( A.8) ( A.9) = CA(t ) ⋅ 1τ ,τ c >t −δ − CA(t ) ⋅ 1τ >t −δ ⋅ 1τ ,τ c >t −δ + CA(t ) ⋅ LGD ⋅ 1t ≥τ >t −δ ⋅ 1τ ,τ c >t −δ ( A.10) = CA(t ) ⋅ 1τ ,τ c >t −δ − CA(t ) ⋅ 1τ ,τ c >t −δ + CA(t ) ⋅ LGD ⋅ 1t ≥τ >t −δ ⋅ 1τ c >t −δ ( A.11) = CA(t ) ⋅ LGD ⋅ 1τ c >t −δ ⋅ 1t ≥τ >t −δ ( A.12) − − − − − − − Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 17 Appendix – General Expression for Funding Cost The total expected funding cost from t = 0 to t = T (T is the longest maturity in the portfolio), is given by FC = B (0, T ) E T [FC (0, T )] ( A.13) T = B (0, T ) E ∫ dFC (t , t ) δ ( A.14) dFC (t , t ) = ∫ EQ η (0, t ) δ ( A.15) T η (s, t ) ≡ exp ∫ ru du S ( A.16) T T where Replacing dFC(t, t), with its equivalent from previous slide gives the general expression for funding cost in terms of the cash account ( ) − CA(t ) ⋅ 1τ c >t −δ FC = ∫ E LGD ⋅ 1 t ≥τ >t −δ η (0, t ) δ T Q ( A.17) [ ( ) FC = ∫ B (0, t ) E t LGD CA(t ) ⋅ 1τ c >t −δ ⋅ 1t ≥τ >t −δ − ] 1) Looking at the general expression for the funding cost, the funding amount to be borrowed is a simple expression of − ( A.19) N (t ,τ c ) ≡ CA(t ) ⋅ 1τ c >t −δ The indicator function ensures that we do not borrow if there is no position (due to counterparty’s default) and the negative sign ensures that we borrow the shortfall only. All this continues conditional on the firm’s survival (second indicator function in the integrand.) 2) The expression obtained for the funding cost in this slide is applicable to all situations, whether the firm faces the counterparty, through a collateral arrangement, or the market, since it was based on the cash account. What goes into the cash account and who pays in (or out of) the account makes the funding cost to face different entities. To be complete, a risk free cash account should have three sources of inflows(outflows): remaining cash that grows by the risk free rate, the collateral amount , Col(t), which follows from the collateral arrangement specifications, and the current cash flow, CF(t), CA(t ) = e rδ CA(t − δ ) + Col (t ) + CF (t ) ( A.20) In the next slides we will consider a market facing funding cost of an uncollateralized position by just removing the collateral component from the above expression. Changing to the more intuitive t-Forward measure T Remarks: ( A.18) δ Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 18 Appendix – Funding Cost (Uncollateralized Position) In this section we focus on deriving the funding cost due to an uncollateralized position. We do this in two ways: an economic and an analytical approach. + ] ( A.21) Cash [ FC = ∫ B (0, t ) E t LGD V (t ) ⋅ 1τ c >t −δ ⋅ 1 t ≥τ >t −δ V(t)+ UnCollateralized Counterparty FC Firm Cash A simple approach to relate the cash account to the mtm of an uncollateralized position is to consider a case where an uncollaterlized trade is back-to-backed with a fully collateralized hedging counterparty. When the mtm facing the uncollaterized name is positive, V(t)+, the firm’s mtm would be negative to the hedging counterparty who is entitled to the collateral. This cash needs to be funded unsecured from the market to which the funding spread has to be paid. However, if the mtm facing the counterparty is negative, V(t)-, the mtm facing the hedging counterparty would be positive and they need to post the cash which can only be used to invest in a default free account. Therefore, the funding cost can only be incurred when the mtm facing the counterparty is positive. [We pay and receive OIS on collateral.] Cash Method 1- An Economic Approach T Figure 6 Collateralized Counterparty Money Market δ Method 2- An Analytical Approach Our starting point for this approach is the definition of the risk free cash account. A risk free cash account that is wholly used to fund an uncollateralized position starts with CA(0) = - V(0). As time goes by, the cash account from t – δ to t accrues with the risk free rate. The accrual is applied to the remaining cash at time t – δ and then nets any cash transfer in (or out of) the account for any cash flows , CF(t), that occurred at time t. Putting it in a more formal way, CA(t ) = e rδ CA(t − δ ) + CF (t ) ( A.22) Note that there is no CF(0) and r is the short instantaneous rate. The above iterative equation gives t j ≤t CA(t ) = CA(0 ) η (0, t ) + ∑ CF (t j )η (t j , t ) ( A.23) t j >0 Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 19 Appendix – Funding Cost (Uncollateralized Position) Selecting the risk neutral measure Q requires the calculation of CA(t) in units of η(0,t) as previously defined t ≤t ( ) j CF t j CA(t ) = − V (0 ) + ∑ η (0, t ) t j > 0 η (0, t j ) ( A.24) The above quantity is adaptable to the filtration Ft. We now write an identity that will come handy for later-on. t j ≤T CF (t j ) t j ≤t CF (t j ) t j ≤T CF (t j ) Q E ∑ Ft = ∑ Ft + E ∑ t j > 0 η (0, t j ) t j > 0 η (0, t j ) t j >t η (0, t j ) Q ( A.25) With some rearrangements, t j ≤t ∑ t j >0 CF (t j ) t j ≤T CF (t j ) = V (0) − E ∑ Ft η (0, t j ) t j >t η (0, t j ) = V (0 ) − V (t ) Q ( A.26) ( A.27 ) Calculating the conditional expectation of the uncollatralized cash account gives t j ≤t CF (t j ) CA(t ) Q E Ft = − V (0 ) + E ∑ Ft t j >0 η (0, t j ) η (0, t ) = − V (0 ) + V (0 ) − V (t ) = − V (t ) Q ( A.28) ( A.29) ( A.30) We can now calculate the market facing funding cost for an uncollateralized position Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 20 Appendix – Funding Cost (Uncollateralized Position) − CA(t ) ⋅ FC M (0, T ) = ∫ E LGD 1 1 τ c >t −δ t ≥τ >t −δ η 0 , t ( ) δ − T Q Q Q CA(t ) = ∫ E E LGD E Ft ⋅ 1τ c >t −δ ⋅ 1t ≥τ >t −δ H t ∨ Ft η (0, t ) δ T Q T { [ = ∫ E Q E Q LGD[− V (t )] ⋅ 1τ c >t −δ ⋅ 1t ≥τ >t −δ H t ∨ Ft − ]} ( A.31) ( A.32) ( A.33) δ Where Ht is the filtration generated with the discrete events of default τ and τk,. With [− V (t )]− = [V (t )]+ ( A.34) and after changing measure to t-forward, we finally obtain the more intuitive expression T [ FC = ∫ B (0, t ) E t LGD V (t ) ⋅ 1τ c >t −δ ⋅ 1 t ≥τ >t −δ + ] ( A.35) δ Shahram Alavian - 7th Annual Credit Risk in Banking Summit, Berlin, 2014 21