Valuation of IR Derivatives in a new Regulatory Environment Speakers: Eduardo Pereira Bernardo Santos Andrade Dutch Association of Corporate Treasurers Event: Risk and Regulation Specialist: Bloomberg L.P Senior Manager, Toyota Motor Finance (Netherlands) B.V Hotels Van Oranje, Noordwijk, The Netherlands. 11th November 2013. • • • • • OIS Discounting: A new valuation framework; CSA Agreements; CVA; CSA Agreements – Bloomberg ‘MARS’ solution; TMFNL: Collateral Operation Case Study. Agenda OIS Discounting • Prior to Credit Crisis credit & liquidity effects were largely ignored in IR derivatives pricing • Subsequent to Credit Crisis – Stronger Focus on Counterparty Risk (Credit) • Evaluating Exposure • Risk Management – Stronger Focus on Funding (Liquidity) • Divergence between “risk free” rates and funding levels • Funding arbitrage opportunities • New framework required as credit & liquidity effects can no longer be ignored in pricing Overview of OIS Framework Swap Value 1,000,000 Market Value in EUR 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 21-Oct-05 21-Oct-06 21-Oct-07 21-Oct-08 21-Oct-09 21-Oct-10 (200,000) (400,000) (600,000) 26th Oct 2005: 10MM EUR 7yr Pay 3.10%, q/q • IR swaps can have both negative or positive values • If market value is positive Counterparty owes money And if counterparty defaults Loss for everything that can’t be recovered........ • Credit mitigation very important • Changes in Regulation Banks to be penalised for uncollateralised swaps Counterparty Risk • Mitigating credit exposure (interbank) – Netting Agreements – Credit Support Annex (CSA) agreement – Central Counterparty (CCP) clearing • CSA: Collateral posted between counterparties • CCP (e.g. LCH.Clearnet): “Variation Margin” paid (or received) each day by clearing member (in addition to “Initial margin”) • Both CSAs & CCP define how interest accrues on funds (collateral or margin payments) Swaps in the Interbank Market Credit & Liquidity Premium in Euribor LOIS EUR <GO> Credit & Liquidity Premium in Euribor Credit Crunch: Market First Fears Credit & Liquidity Premium in Euribor Bear Stearns ‘Bailout’ Credit & Liquidity Premium in Euribor Lehman Bankruptcy Credit & Liquidity Premium in Euribor Ireland Crisis • IR swaps can have both negative or positive values • If market value is positive Counterparty owes money And if counterparty defaults Loss for everything that can’t be recovered........ • Credit mitigation very important • Banks generally have agreements to post collateral to each other – Credit Support Annex (CSA) agreement – Central Counterparty Clearing (CCC) • Generally corporates do not wish to sign CSAs or agree to CCCs Both parties exposed to counterparty risk Counterparty Risk Counterparty Valuation Adjustments For a swap how do you currently determine what you are being charged for your credit risk? • By using the Bloomberg CVA/DVA calculator • My relationship banks provide full disclosure on these charges • Unaware of any such charges • We calculate using other methods • We do not get charged Webinar Poll 2 - Question Responses: 106 5% 16% 23% Bloomberg Calculator Full disclosure 33% Unaware Other Methods 23% Not charged Webinar Poll 2 Results Calculating Credit Spreads CVA/DVA Calculator Calculating Credit Spreads Calculate Exposure from Counterparties Perspective Calculating Credit Spreads Market Information: Credit, Rates & Volatility Calculating Credit Spreads DVA: Cost to Bank of Corporate Defaulting Calculating Credit Spreads CVA Calculation: Cost to Corporate of Bank Defaulting Calculating Credit Spreads Bilateral Calculation Exposure Graph Bilateral Calculation Charting Net Cash Flows Net Cash Flows affect Exposures