How to solve Case Studies VI
Potential Problem Analysis
The 4 types of Questions & their Patterns
of thinking
What is going on?
Situation Appraisal
Why did this happen?
Problem Analysis (PA)
Which course of action
should we take?
What lies ahead?
Decision Analysis (DA)
By Christophe Mercier
Potential Problem Analysis
(PPA)
Potential Problem Analysis
Potential Problem Analysis
• Future Events and Their Consequences
• Potential Problem Analysis is a systematic process
for uncovering and dealing with potential problems
that are reasonably likely to occur and therefore
worthy of attention
• The basic question we ask is:
– Potential Problem Analysis I a procedure that
enables us to walk into the FUTURE, see what
it may hold, and then return to the present to
take action now – when it can do the most
good.
– It’s a pattern of thinking designed to change
and improve the future
– A pro-active act of prudence
– A positive kind of “Paranoia” managers develop
– “What could go wrong?” And “What can we do
about it NOW?”
Potential Problem Analysis
Potential Problem Analysis
• 4 Basic Activities
• 4 Basic Activities
1. Identification of Vulnerable Areas of an
undertaking/ project/ event/ plan…
2. Identification of Specific Potential Problems
within these vulnerable areas that could
have sufficient negative effects on the
operation to merit taking action now
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Potential Problem Analysis
Potential Problem Analysis
• 4 Basic Activities
• 4 Basic Activities
3. Identification of the Likely Causes of these
potential problems & identification of actions
to PREVENT them from occurring
Planning a Hotel Grand Opening
4. Identification of Contingent Actions that can
be taken if preventive actions fail, or where
no preventive action is possible
The Process Reviewed:
• Illustration Case available for download at:
PPA: Ensure the Success
of an Activity
– http://chrismercier.org/cases.htm
• THE GRAND OPENING
Action Plan Statement
Provide for Information
- Progress Reports
- Trigger Contingent Action
- Steps &
- Timing
Select Actions
Anticipate Problems
- Preventive (Remove Causes)
- Contingent (Minimize Effect)
Set Priorities
-Probability & Seriousness
Anticipate Likely Causes
Probability
Summary
Further Reading on Mindtools ebook
• Potential Problem Analysis is not a negative search
for trouble. It is a positive search for ways to avoid
and lessen trouble that is likely to come in the
future. As such, Potential Problem analysis is one
of the most rewarding activities engaged by a
manager. It is a tool available for bringing into focus
today the best thinking of an informed management
team properly concerned with the future
• Other Planning and Potential Problem Analysis
Tools:
– Project Planning Skills p 79
– Project Planning and Scheduling (Gantt Chart) p 83
– Planning for large and complex projects (Critical Path
Analysis and PERT) p 87
– Risk Analysis & Risk Management p 54
– Six Thinking Hats (Black Hat) p 75
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