*INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED.
NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last part
Market Review & Focus
P. 1 - 4
FX Analysis
P. 5 - 10
© 2013 Citibank
Citibank and Arc Design is a registered service mark of Citibank, N.A. or Citigroup Inc.
Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited
February 29, 2016
FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
P. 11 - 15

CCY
USD
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CHF
USD/CNY
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
LAST WEEK PERFORMANCE
Close
Price
Day High Day Low
52 week high
52 week low
1 year %
Year-To-
Date change
Change
-0.5%
0.7%
-5.2%
1.3854 -5.9%
-2.3%
-2.2%
0.6130 -3.0%
-0.6%
0.8%
USD INDEX
EUR
JPY
GBP
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
CNY
CNH
GOLD
-1.76%
-1.19%
-0.31%
-0.05%
-0.65%
-0.33%
-0.33%
-0.30%
1.60%
1.89%
-0.3%
USD/CNH
-2.50% -1.50% -0.50% 0.50% 1.50% 2.50%
15.2%
GOLD
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016 Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016
USD
GBP
NZD
US 4Q15 GDP growth was revised up to 1.0% YoY while core PCE grew 1.7% YoY, the highest since 2013. Data supported the Fed’s view that inflation may still have upside pressure albeit low oil prices. The dollar index rose 1.6% to close at 98.15 last week. USD outlook: The dollar index may range trade between 95.30-99.80.
GBP dropped to 1.3854, a 7-year low amid rising concerns about Brexit, as the latest polls showed 52% voters supporting
Brexit while 48% would like to stay in the EU. GBP/USD dropped 3.7% to close at 1.3871 last week. GBP outlook:
GBP/USD may test lower to 1.3503-1.3657.
Although NZD once breached a resistance of 0.6757 as NZ trade balance rose from NZ$38mn deficit to NZ$8mn surplus,
NZD dropped afterwards on USD strength. NZD/USD fell 0.1% to close at 0.6629 last week. NZD outlook: NZD/USD may range trade between 0.6552-0.6757.
Gold
Gold price pared losses amid fund inflows, as gold ETF holdings increased to 1,679 tons. Spot gold/USD dropped 0.3% to close at $1,222.65 last week. Gold outlook: Spot gold/USD may test higher to $1,264.
RMB
RMB range-traded as the Chinese government may tend to stabilize RMB before the G20 meeting. However, RMB weakness may resume as the meeting did not discuss about RMB. USD/CNY and USD/CNH rose 0.3% to close at 6.5404 and 6.5462 respectively last week. CNH outlook: USD/CNH may test higher to 6.6512 upon consolidation.
1

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
USD dropped in February amid cooling expectation of rate hikes by the Fed. Stepping into March, Meetings of the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ may become market focus. The Fed and the BoJ may stay put while the ECB may further ease policy.
FX recap in February
• USD dropped and funds flew into JPY for safe-haven, amid cooling expectation of rate hikes by the Fed and disappointment of the BoJ's negative interest rate. JPY outperformed and USD/JPY once breached 111.
• Since British PM Cameron announced to hold a referendum on Brexit on Jun 23, GBP underperformed. Besides, as some officials said to support Brexit, GBP/USD breached 1.39, a
7-year low.
• High-yield currencies stabilized. Due to stable economies in
Australia and New Zealand, the central banks did not intend to cut rates. AUD and NZD kept mild uptrend.
• For RMB, as the PBoC may not be willing to let RMB depreciate significantly before the G20 meeting and USD weakened, RMB stayed slightly stronger in February.
Key points of the G20 meeting
• It is difficult for global economic recovery to meet expectation.
Economic downside risk increases.
• The G20 agreed to use all the tools to boost economic growth but they emphasized that balanced growth cannot be achieved by monetary policy only. The G20 also reiterated to avoid competitive depreciation.
• However, the G20 did not reach any agreement to solve the global economic issue together and did not discuss about
China’s economy and RMB policy in the meeting.
Key Data & Events in March
• March 1: US presidential candidate election - Super Tuesday
• March 2: British PM Cameron’s speech in the House of
Commons. He may talk about Brexit
• March 5: US Non-farm Payrolls, China’s NPC
• March 9: RBNZ’s rate decision and BoC’s rate decision
• March 10: ECB’s rate decision
• March 14: RBA’s rate decision
• March 15: BoJ’s rate decision
• March 17: Feb’s rate decision , BoE’s rate decision
• March 25: US 4Q15 GDP growth (revision)
Major central banks’ policy may change:
• ECB: The ECB may cut the deposit rate by 10bps to -0.4% in
March and may raise monthly bond purchase amount from
EUR60bn to EUR75bn at least for six months, increasing the scale by EUR90bn. It may also stop requiring banks’ early repayment of funds that they borrowed through TLTROs. The
ECB may further cut the deposit rate to -0.5% and extend the bond purchase program again later this year.
• BoJ: Negative interest rate may impact banks’ profit and may reduce retail banks’ deposit rate, impacting consumption.
Thus, the BoJ may not ease policy further in March. However, as core inflation may slide again, the BoJ may cut the interest rate to -0.3% in July.
• Fed: The Fed may become cautious on rate hike amid global market volatility. Thus, we expect the Fed not to hike rates in
March and may defer the rate hike to June. The next rate hike after that may happen in December.
2

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
1.
•
•
2.
•
•
3.
•
•
3

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
The RBA may keep its accommodative policy stance and strengthen its bearish comments on AUD. However, it is unlikely to cut rates. Historically, if AUD adjusted on dovish monetary policy stance, it may provide a buy-on-dip opportunity.
Chart: AUD & NZD trend after last meeting
NZD/USD
The RBA may keep its accommodative policy stance amid weakening external economy
• Developed countries' economic slowdown and worse-than-expected impacts of central banks' policy easing may bring about global economic recession risk.
• Australia announced last week that wage price index grew
2.2% YoY in Q4, a record low while annual real wage had no growth.
• Thus, we expect the RBA may keep its accommodative policy stance this week.
• In addition, AUD/USD has rebounded from 0.68 to 0.72. In order to avoid rapid AUD appreciation, the RBA may strengthen the bearish comments on AUD.
The RBA is unlikely to cut rates
• Strong individual consumption and construction may offset the negative impacts of decreasing non-residential investment.
4Q15 GDP growth may reach 0.4% with yearly growth rising from 2.5% to 2.6%. The RBA is unlikely to cut rates due to stable economic growth in Australia.
• Moreover, it is reasonable that AUD is still below 0.75. Thus, we expect the RBA to keep the interest rate unchanged at 2%.
On January 27 , the RBNZ held a policy meeting. On that day,
NZD rebounded to 0.6752 after falling to a low of 0.6418.
AUD/USD
On February 2, the RBA held a policy meeting. AUD rebounded to 0.7243 after falling to a low of 0.7034 on that day.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016
AUD may rebound after losses
• Despite a possible dovish policy statement, the RBA may not cut rates. Historically, AUD may rebound after losses.
For example:
• On January 27 (Chart), the RBNZ did not cut rates despite a negative policy statement. On that day, NZD rebounded to
0.6752 after falling to a low of 0.6418.
• On February 2, the RBA did not cut rates despite a dovish policy stance. AUD rebounded to 0.7243 after falling to a low of 0.7034 on that day.
4

Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last part
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7770 exchange rate for reference
Upcoming Economic Data
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
Mar 1: RBA’s rate decision
0.7126
(5.54)
0.7259
(5.65)
0.7118
(5.54)
0.6974
(5.42)
0.7040
(5.48)
0.7253
(5.64)
0.7328
(5.70)
0.70
(5.44)
0.71
(5.52)
Mar 2: GDP (YoY)
 USD rose and AUD fell on ideal U.S.
Personal income and spending data, and
U.S. GDP growth was revised to 1.0% YoY in
Q4 2015, higher than expectation of 0.4%.


Australian capex guidance showed mining investment may further reduce. However, expectation of policy easing and a previous fall in AUD offset some negative impacts.
Improved business investment and strong consumption may support Australia's economic growth to reach 2.7%, higher than other developed countries. Thus, we keep our view that the RBA may have ended its rate cut cycle, which may support AUD.
0.6974-0.7040 (Feb 9 low & fibo 0.382)


Pay attention to the RBA's rate decision on
Tuesday. Since current Australia's economic status may be in line with the RBA's previous expectation, the RBA may stay put.
AUD/USD may range trade between
0.7040-0.7253 (5.48-5.64).
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016
0.7253-0.7328
(fibo 0.764 & Dec
31, 2015 low)
5

Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last part
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7770 exchange rate for reference
Upcoming Economic Data
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
Mar 1: Manufacturing PMI
1.3871
(10.79)
1.4332
(11.15)
1.3854
(10.77)
1.3503
(10.50)
1.3657
(10.62)
1.4080
(10.95)
1.4150
(11.00)
1.35
(10.50)
1.39
(10.81)

GBP fell last week amid rising Brexit risk, as the recent poll showed that supporting rate of leaving EU rose to 52%.



Since London Mayor Johnson called to back
Brexit, recent poll showed reversal of the
January poll that supporting rate of Brexit is higher than stay.
Thus, we anticipate that the probability of
Brexit may increase to 30-40% from 20-30%.
Once the referendum is in favor of Brexit, a referendum on Scottish independence may be triggered. Economically, the UK may lose its trade privilege in the Euro Area and the economic growth may slow down to 1-1.5% for the coming years. Brexit risk may continue to undermine GBP.
1.4080 (Jan low)
1.3503-1.3657 (Jan & Mar 2009 lows)
 The pair may test lower to 1.3503-1.3657
(10.50-10.62) upon consolidation.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016 6

Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last part
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7770 exchange rate for reference
Upcoming Economic Data
Last Price Last wk High Last wk Low
2nd
Support
1st Support 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance
Mar 1: Manufacturing PMI
6.5462
(1.1880)
6.5482
(1.1877)
6.5210
(1.1926)
6.4161
(1.2121)
6.4978
(1.1969)
6.5746
(1.1829)
6.6512
(1.1692)
Mar 1: Non-manufacturing PMI

CNH was pressured amid rising expectation of RMB gradual depreciation as the PBoC raised USD/CNH mid-price to 6.53 last week.

The G20 meeting did not discuss about RMB.
Thus, the PBoC may not intervene the FX market aggressively, to prevent further loss of
FX reserves. Besides, fund outflows from
China on concerns over China's economic outlook may also undermine the RMB.
 Although the PBoC may pause rate cuts and cuts in the RRR in order to avoid a plunge in
RMB, the PBoC may inject liquidity into markets through other measures, which may increase RMB’s downside pressure.
6.5749 (55MA)


Pay attention to PMI this week. Data missing expectations may increase RMB downside risk.
USD/CNH may range trade between 6.4978-
6.5746 (1.1969-1.1829), with upside bias.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016
6.6512 (Feb 3 top)
6.4978 (100MA)
7

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
Gold outperformed YTD amid rising risk aversion and a fall in USD on cooling expectation of US rate hikes. We expect that China’s demand for gold may increase and corporations may also intend to purchase more gold, which may underpin the gold price.
Chart: Spot Gold – Daily Chart
1307.62 (Jan 2015 top) 1263.48 (Feb 11 top)
Gold price gained 15% YTD
• Gold price was supported by global market volatility in early
2016 and a fall in USD on cooling expectation of US rate hikes. Funds flowed into gold market for risk aversion.
• Thus, gold price surged from $1,070/ounce in early 2016 to
$1,263.48, a recent high. The gain once achieved 19%.
China’s investment demand for gold may increase
• RMB depreciation and a plunge in China’s equity market impacted investment sentiment. Thus, investors may diversify its investments into gold, which may boost gold’s demand.
• According to the World Gold Council, China’s demand for gold bullion and gold coins surged to 48 tons in 4Q15, 25% higher than 4Q14 and 21% higher than early 2015.
• Chinese investors’ demand for gold may remain strong and may support the gold price, amid uncertainty over China’s investment markets.
1191.02-1199.29 (Feb 16 low & 20MA)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016
Chinese corporations buy more gold
• As of September 2015, precious metal collateral held by the big 4 Chinese banks reached RMB443bn, 40% higher than
September 2014.
• We expect more corporations to change part of their assets into gold, in order to use them as collateral. Demand for gold may increase, which may underpin the gold price.
Gold price may further rise upon consolidation
• Technically (Chart), gold price rose above $1,191.67, Oct
2015 top, ending a trend of lower lows in the weekly chart.
• Gold price may test higher to $1,263,48 upon consolidation.
If gold price rose above this resistance, the pair may further test higher to $1,307.62, Jan 2015 top, with support at $
1,191.02-$1,199.29.
8

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
Last wk
High
Last Price
Last wk
Low
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7770 exchange rate for reference
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m 6-12m
1.0934
(8.50)
1.1135
(8.66)
1.0912
(8.49)
1.0725
(8.34)
1.0778
(8.38)
1.1068
(8.61)
1.1175
(8.69)
1.13
(8.79)
1.11
(8.63)
EUR downside may be limited as markets may be disappointed about the ECB's expansion of QE in March
Weekly recap: EUR dropped as ideal US data supported a rise in USD and Euro Area's manufacturing PMI in February came in at 53, lower than expectation of 53.4.
Outlook analysis: Due to global economic slowdown and increasing Brexit risk, we revised down 2016 Euro Area's economic growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.3%. The ECB may expandQE in March but the level may disappoint markets, which may limit EUR downside risk.
Technical analysis: Due to the falling RSI, the pair may range trade between 1.0778-1.1068 (8.38-8.61), with downside bias.
1.1068-1.1175 (Last Fri top & fibo 0.236)
1.0725-1.0778 (fibo
0.746 & Jan 21 low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016
Last wk
High
Last Price
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m 6-12m
114.00
(68.22)
114.00
(68.22)
111.04
(70.04)
110.09
(70.64)
110.99
(70.13)
114.87
(67.70)
116.18
(66.94)
111
(70.06)
112
(69.44)
JPY downside risk may be limited as the BoJ's possible rate cut in July may have limited impact
Weekly recap: JPY fell last week as improved investment sentiment triggered fund outflows as Japan's core inflation stayed unchanged in January, compared with the previous figure of 0.1%.
Outlook analysis: The BoJ may cut the interest rate from -0.1% to -0.3% in July as core inflation may become negative for the coming months on weak energy prices and a rebound in JPY.
However, the measures may have limited impact on liquidity, which may limit JPY downside.
Technical analysis: Since the RSI rebounded from the oversold levels, the pair may range trade between 110.99-114.87
(70.13-67.70).
114.87-116.18 (Feb 16 top & Aug 2015 low)
110.09-110.99 (Early Oct
2014 top & Feb 11 low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016
9

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
Last wk
High
Last Price
Last wk
Low
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7770 exchange rate for reference
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m 6-12m
0.6629
(5.16)
0.6775
(5.27)
0.6587
(5.12)
0.6423
(5.00)
0.6552
(5.10)
0.6757
(5.25)
0.6883
(5.35)
0.66
(5.13)
0.65
(5.06)
NZD may find support at lows as the RBNZ may have ended its rate cut cycle
Weekly recap: NZD retreated from tops on a surge in USD on
Friday as NZ's trade surplus of NZ$8mn in January was better than expectation of a deficit of NZ$270mn.
Outlook analysis: Ideal trade data may ease expectation of weak external economy and falling milk prices. Since strong job market, increasing business investment and individual consumption may support NZ's economic growth to reach 2.5%, the RBNZ may keep the interest rate unchanged, which may support NZD.
Technical analysis: Due to the neutral RSI, the pair may range trade between 0.6552-0.6757 (5.10-5.25).
0.6883 (Dec
2015 top) 0.6757 (fibo 0.764)
0.6552 (fibo 0.382)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016
Last wk
High
Last Price
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1.3513
(5.76)
1.3859
(5.61)
1.3505
(5.76)
1.3065
(5.95)
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
1.3269
(5.86)
1.3640
(5.70)
1.3859
(5.61)
0-3m 6-12m
1.37
(5.68)
1.37
(5.68)
CAD may find support on a rebound in oil prices as oil supply may reduce in 2H16
Weekly recap: CAD rose on a rebound in oil prices as
Venezuela's Oil Minister said to discuss with Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar on stabilizing oil prices.
Outlook analysis: Current oil prices may have reflected the issue of oil supply glut. Oil prices are unlikely to plunge in the short term. Rig count may drop in 2H16 and oil supply may reduce, which may support a rebound in oil prices. Thus, CAD may find support.
Technical analysis: Although the pair breached a support of
1.3640, the pair may range trade between 1.3269-1.3640 (5.86-
5.70) in the short term due to the oversold RSI.
1.3640 (Feb 4 low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Feb 26, 2016
1.3065-1.3269 (2009 top & 200MA)
10

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
U.S.
February Non-farm Payrolls
 This week job growth may remain strong. In addition, if average earnings growth accelerates significantly, it may raise expectation of US rate hikes again.
RBA’s Rate Decision
 The RBA may keep its accommodative policy stance and strengthen dovish comments on AUD in the policy meeting this week, but a rate cut is unlikely.
4Q15 Terms of Trade
 Since dairy product export prices strengthened and gasoline import price fell, terms of trade used by the RBNZ to measure export profitability may rise to 0.0% from -3.7%
China
February Manufacturing PMI
 We expect it is difficult to see improvement in PMI amid manufacturing activities’ substantial downside pressure. February figure may remain at 49.4.
Mar 4 (Fri):
Non-farm Payrolls
Citi forecast Previous
195K 151K
Mar 1 (Tue):
RBA’s Rate Decision
Mar 1(Tue):
Terms of Trade
Citi forecast Previous
+0.00% -3.70%
Mar 1(Tue):
Manufacturing PMI
Citi forecast Previous
49.4 49.4
11

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
EUR
Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CNY
0-3 month
96.19
1.13
1.35
111
0.97
0.70
0.66
1.37
6.70
6-12 month
97.00
1.11
1.39
112
0.99
0.71
0.65
1.37
7.00
Source: Citi, forecast as of Feb 19, 2016 Forecast downgraded
2/26/16
0.50
0.05
0.50
-0.10
-0.75
2.00
2.50
0.50
1.50
Forecast upgraded
1Q ’16
0.50
0.05
0.50
-0.10
-0.75
2.00
2.50
0.50
1.25
Rate cut expectations
2Q ’16
0.75
0.05
0.50
-0.10
-0.75
2.00
2.50
0.50
1.00
Rate hike expectations
3Q ’16
0.75
0.05
0.50
-0.10
-0.75
2.00
2.50
0.50
1.00
ECB's March meeting may be the key. In our view, EUR may have reflected US-Europe monetary policy divergence and thus the negative impact on EUR may be limited. Thus, we revised up EUR 0-3 month and 6-12 month forecast to 1.13 and 1.11
GBP
We revised down GBP/USD 0-3 month and 6-12 month forecast to 1.35 and 1.39
, as there are signs that UK economic data weakens and GBP may have not completely reflect Brexit risk.
AUD
CHF
JPY
The RBA may not cut rates as fundamental data showed Australian economy may grow 2.5%. AUD uptrend may be limited if market volatility deteriorates.
We revised down AUD 0-3 month and 6-12 month forecasts to 0.70
and 0.71 respectively.
CNH may be underpinned amid higher demand for the safe-haven currency due to market volatility. However, CNH upside may be limited as the SNB may further cut rates in 1Q 2016 and further intervene into the currency.
Thus, we revised down USD/CNH 0-3 month forecast to 0.97.
JPY may be underpinned amid rising demand for safe-haven currencies on rising market risk.
Thus, USD/JPY 0-3 month and 6-12 month forecasts were revised down to 111 and 112.
12

Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last part
Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
96.2
1.13
96.5
1.12
96.8
1.11
97.0
1.11
97.0
1.11
97.0
1.11
97.0
1.10
97.0
1.10
96.5
1.11
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CNY
USD / SGD
USD / BRL
1.35
111
0.97
0.70
0.66
1.37
6.72
1.45
4.16
1.36
111
0.98
0.70
0.66
1.37
6.91
1.47
4.26
1.38
112
0.99
0.71
0.65
1.37
7.10
1.49
4.35
1.39
112
0.99
0.71
0.65
1.36
7.18
1.49
4.38
1.38
112
0.99
0.71
0.65
1.35
7.14
1.48
4.33
1.38
112
1.00
0.71
0.65
1.34
7.10
1.47
4.28
1.38
111
1.00
0.72
0.65
1.32
7.06
1.46
4.23
1.38
111
1.00
0.72
0.65
1.31
7.02
1.45
4.18
1.38
111
1.00
0.72
0.65
1.29
6.97
1.44
4.11
USD / RUB 79.0
76.0
73.1
71.2
70.7
70.2
69.7
69.2
67.8
USD / ZAR 16.54
16.84
17.14
17.25
17.16
17.06
16.96
16.85
16.57
Source: Citi, forecasts as of February 19, 2016
13

Time
02/22/2016 17:00
02/23/2016 17:00
02/23/2016 22:00
02/23/2016 23:00
02/23/2016 23:00
02/24/2016 08:30
02/24/2016 17:30
02/24/2016 23:00
02/25/2016 08:30
02/25/2016 17:30
02/25/2016 18:00
02/25/2016 21:30
02/25/2016 21:30
02/26/2016 05:45
02/26/2016 05:45
02/26/2016 05:45
02/26/2016 07:30
02/26/2016 08:05
02/26/2016 21:30
02/26/2016 21:30
02/26/2016 23:00
Importance
!!
!!
!!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!
EC
NZ
NZ
NZ
JN
UK
US
US
US
AU
UK
EC
US
US
GE
US
US
US
AU
UK
US
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
Event
Monday
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday
IFO Business Climate
S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
Consumer Confidence Index
Existing Home Sales MoM
Wednesday
Wage Price Index YoY
BBA Loans for House Purchase
New Home Sales MoM
Thursday
Private Capital Expenditure
GDP YoY
CPI YoY
Initial Jobless Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Friday
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY
GfK Consumer Confidence
Advance Goods Trade Balance
GDP Annualized QoQ
U. of Mich. Sentiment
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last part
Period Actual Survey Prior
Feb 51.0
52 52.3
Feb
Dec
Feb
Jan
4Q
Jan
Jan
4Q
4Q
Jan
Feb
Jan
105.7
5.74%
92.2
0.40%
2.2%
47509
-9.20%
0.80%
1.90%
0.30%
272k
4.90%
107
5.80%
97.2
-2.50%
2.30%
44800
-4.40%
-3.00%
1.90%
0.40%
270k
2.90%
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Jan
4Q
Feb
8m
3.90b
3.89b
0.00%
0
-271m
3.71b
3.95b
0.00%
3
-38m
4.43b
4.46b
0.10%
4
-$62.228b -$61.200b
-$61.513b
1.00%
91.7
0.40%
91
0.70%
90.7
107.3
5.74%
97.8
12.10%
2.30%
43660
8.20%
-8.40%
1.90%
0.40%
262k
-4.60%
14

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
時間
03/01/2016 11:30
03/02/2016 08:30
03/03/2016 08:30
02/29/2016 21:30
03/01/2016 21:30
03/04/2016 21:30
03/04/2016 23:00
03/01/2016 09:00
03/01/2016 09:00
03/01/2016 09:00
03/01/2016 09:00
03/01/2016 07:30
02/29/2016 17:30
03/01/2016 17:30
02/29/2016 23:00
03/01/2016 23:00
03/02/2016 21:15
03/03/2016 03:00
03/03/2016 21:30
03/03/2016 23:00
03/04/2016 21:30
03/04/2016 21:30
03/04/2016 21:30
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
周二
周三
周四
周一
周二
周五
周五
周二
周二
周二
周二
周二
周一
周二
周一
周二
周三
周四
周四
周四
周五
周五
周五
!!
!!
!!
!!!
!!!
!!
!
!!
!!
重要性
!
!!
!
!!
!!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!
!
!!
數據公布
澳洲
澳洲央行公布議息結果
國內生產總值(年比)
貿易收支
加拿大
經常帳餘額
國內生產總值(年比)
國際商品貿易
Ivey採購經理人指數(經季調)
中國
製造業採購經理指數
非製造業採購經理人指數
歐元區
製造業採購經理指數
非製造業採購經理人指數
日本
失業率
英國
按揭批核數字
製造業採購經理人指數
美國
待售房屋銷售 (年比)
ISM 製造業指數
ADP 就業變動
聯儲局褐皮書
首次申請失業救濟金人數
耐用品訂單
貿易收支
非農業就業人口變動
失業率
二月
二月
一月
一月
二月
一月
二月
二月
三月
二月
一月
一月
二月
二月
月份 / 季度
三月
第四季
一月
第四季
十二月
一月
二月
二月
二月
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
實際
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
預期 之前
2.00%
2.60%
2.00%
2.50%
‐ 3200m ‐ 3535m
‐ $17.00b
‐ $16.21b
0.00% 0.20%
‐ 1.00b
‐‐
‐ 0.59b
66
49.4
‐‐
49.4
53.5
49.4
‐‐
3.30%
74.0k
52
49.4
53.5
3.30%
70.8k
52.9
3.90%
48.6
190k
3.10%
48.2
205k
‐‐
‐‐
272k
4.90%
‐ $43.25b
‐ $43.36b
195k 151k
4.90% 4.90%
15

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16

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17

Unrated or non investment grade Debt Securities typically offer a higher yield than investment grade Debt Securities, but also present greater risks with respect to liquidity, volatility, and non-payment of principal and interest. As a result of being classified as non investment grade Debt Securities, these Debt Securities present a greater degree of credit risk relative to many other fixed income Debt Securities.
Higher Credit Risk – Unrated or non investment grade Debt Securities generally have predominantly speculative characteristics with respect to the issuer’s capacity to pay interest and repay principal. There is greater risk of non-payment of interest and loss of principal. Many issuers of these Debt Securities have experienced substantial difficulties in servicing their debt obligations, which has led to default and restructurings. The issuers of these Debt Securities generally have to pay a higher rate of interest than investment grade Debt Securities.
Higher Liquidity and Secondary Market Risk – The markets in which unrated or non investment grade Debt Securities are traded are generally more limited than those in which investment grade Debt Securities are traded. This lack of liquidity may make it more difficult to resell these Debt Securities and obtain market quotations.
Downgrade Risk – Downgrades in the credit rating of unrated or non investment grade Debt Securities by rating agencies are generally accompanied by declines in the market value of these Debt Securities. In some circumstances, investors in the unrated or non investment grade Debt Securities market may anticipate such downgrades as a result of these credits being placed on “credit watch” by rating agencies, causing volatility and speculation of further credit deterioration.
Higher Vulnerability to economic cycles - During economic downturns, unrated or non investment grade Debt Securities are typically more susceptible to price volatility and fall more in value than investment grade Debt Securities as i) investors may reevaluate holdings in lower-quality bonds in favor of investment-grade corporate Debt Securities; ii) investors become more risk averse; and iii) default risk rises. This is often referred to a “flight to quality”.
Event Risk – This includes any of a variety of events that can adversely affect the issuer of unrated or non investment grade Debt Securities, and therefore the issuer’s ability to meet debt service obligations to repay principal and interest to
Debt Securities holders. Event risk may pertain to the issuer specifically, the industry or business sector of the issuer, or generally upon the overall economy. It could have a direct or indirect impact on the issuer and their outstanding debts.
18

Risk relating to RMB – If you choose RMB as the base currency or the alternate currency, you should also note the following:
RMB is currently not freely convertible through banks in Hong Kong. Due to exchange controls and/or restrictions imposed on the convertibility, utilisation or transferability of RMB (if any) which in turn is affected by, amongst other things, the PRC government's control, there is no guarantee that disruption in the transferability, convertibility or liquidity of RMB will not occur. There is thus a likelihood that you may not be able to convert RMB received into other freely convertible currencies.
CNH exchange rates and CNY exchange rates are currently quoted in different markets with different exchange rates, whereby their exchange rate movements may not be in the same direction or magnitude. Therefore, the CNH exchange rate may be different from the CNY exchange rate.
19