Summary of macroeconomic forecasts
GDP Growth Inflation Curr. Account / GDP Fiscal balances / GDP
2014 2015 e 2016 e 2014 2015 e 2016 e %
Advanced
United States
Japan
United Kingdom
Euro Area
Germany
France
Italy
2.8
0.9
1.6
0.2
2014 2015 e 2016 e
1.8
1.9
2.3
2.4
-0.1
2.4
0.8
2.9
0.9
2.3
1.6
1.8
1.2
2.0
1.9
2.3
1.8
-0.4 0.8
1.3
1.5
0.4
0.8
0.6
2014 2015 e 2016 e
1.4
0.5
1.9
1.6
2.7
0.4
0.9
2.5
1.5
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.4
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.5
0.2
0.2
1.1
-2.3
0.5
-5.5
2.1
7.8
-1.0
1.9
-2.5
2.8
-4.6
3.1
8.1
0.0
2.0
-2.8
2.7
-3.5
3.1
8.1
-0.0
2.3
-2.8
-5.5
-5.0
-2.4
0.7
-4.0
-3.0
-2.8
-4.3
-3.9
-2.0
0.8
-3.7
-2.6
-2.4
-3.9
-2.7
-1.5
1.0
-3.3
-2.2
Emerging 4.5
4.0
5.3
5.6
6.2
6.2
China
India
Brazil
Russia
7.4
7.1
0.1
0.6
7.1
7.1
-2.0
-2.5
7.3
7.5
0.5
1.5
2.0
6.7
6.3
7.8
1.2
5.4
8.6
13.0
1.7
7.2
6.6
6.2
World 3.3
3.1
3.9
3.7
3.6
4.3
Source : BNP Paribas Group Economic Research / GlobalMarkets (e: estimates & forecasts)
2.1
-1.7
-4.0
3.2
4.0
-1.3
-4.3
2.9
4.0
-1.4
-4.3
3.0
-2.1
-4.4
-6.2
-0.5
-2.4
-4.1
-6.4
-3.6
-2.8
-3.9
-5.9
-1.6
In the US , the economy is running at 2.5% annual path, while the unemployment rate is falling toward 5%, time for monetary policy to become less accommodative.

Although lower oil prices and stronger dollar weigh on headline inflation, the first rate hike is likely to occur by end-2015

With low inventories, low real interest rates, upswing in prices and optimistic surveys, the housing market will continue to do well, supporting private consumption  Corporates are still largely self-financing their capital spending (high margins) and investment is likely to keep healthy.  Main risk : fall in oil prices to dampen capex in the energy sector.
In the euro zone, the recovery has been on a good track until mid-2015 (growth close-to +1.5% annual path), but the perspective of a “Grexit” has dampened business surveys as well as market prices recently. In Germany, the expected IfO index is down for the third month in a row in June, suggesting that activity might become less dynamic for a while.
1 US GDP growth and composite ISM 2 EMU GDP growth and composite PMI
▌GDP, q/q, ann. [L]
▬ ISM composite [R]
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
40
35
-8%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
30
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
65
60
55
50
45
▌GDP, q/q, ann. [L]
▬ PMI composite [R]
60
4%
2%
55
0%
-2%
50
45
-4%
-6%
40
-8%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
35
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Some pay-back after the very strong GDP number printed by the The PMI indexes were good until June, in line with a 1.5% to 2% end of last year. Yet, the US activity keeps on a solid trend and may have rebounded in Q2. annual rate of growth in GDP.

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
Summary of financial forecasts
End of period, %
US Dol.
Fed Funds
2015
Q1
0.25
Q2 Q3e Q4e
2016
Q1e Q2e Q3e Q4e
0.25 0.25-0.50
0.5-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.25 1.25-1.50 1.75-2.00
######## ######## ########
2014
0.25
2015e 2016e
0.5-0.75 1.75-2.00
Libor 3m $ 0.27
0.28
0.75
1.00
1.30
1.55
1.85
2.30
0.26
1.00
2.30
T-Notes 10y
Euro. A.
ECB "Refi"
Euribor 3m
Bund 10 ans
OAT 10y
BTP 10y
R-Uni BoE Base rate
Gilts 10y
Japon BoJ Ov ernight
JGB 10y
0.42
1.29
0.50
1.58
1.93
0.05
0.02
0.18
0.02
0.40
2.33
0.05
-0.01
0.77
1.20
2.31
0.50
2.03
0.01
0.44
0.85
1.65
0.50
2.10
2.50
0.05
0.00
0.55
0.10
0.55
0.95
1.60
0.50
2.25
2.75
0.05
0.00
0.70
0.10
0.60
1.05
1.75
0.75
2.35
2.80
0.05
0.00
0.80
0.10
0.70
End of period
USD EUR / USD
2015
Q1
1.07
Q2
1.11
Q3e
1.04
Q4e
1.02
2016
Q1e
1.00
Q2e
1.00
USD / JPY
EUR EUR / GBP
EUR / CHF
EUR / JPY
120
0.72
1.04
129
122
0.71
1.04
136
127
0.69
1.08
132
130
0.68
1.10
133
132
0.68
1.10
132
Source : BNP Paribas Group Economic Research / GlobalMarkets (e: Estimations, prév isions)
132
0.69
1.10
132
1.20
1.95
0.75
2.40
2.85
0.05
0.00
0.95
0.10
0.80
Q3e
1.02
134
0.69
1.10
137
1.35
2.15
1.00
2.50
2.95
0.05
0.00
1.10
0.10
1.00
Q4e
1.04
136
0.70
1.10
141
1.55
2.35
1.25
2.60
3.00
0.05
0.00
1.25
0.10
1.00
2014
1.21
120
0.78
1.20
145
0.84
1.88
0.50
1.76
2.18
0.05
0.08
0.54
0.07
0.33
2015e
1.02
130
0.68
1.10
133
0.95
1.60
0.50
2.25
2.75
0.05
0.00
0.70
0.10
0.60
1.55
2.35
1.25
2.60
3.00
0.05
0.00
1.25
0.10
1.00
2016e
1.04
136
0.70
1.10
141
3 US, interest rates vs nominal GDP growth 4 Euro area, interest rates vs nominal GDP growth
─ ─ US nominal GDP growth, y/y
▬ Fed funds rate ▬ 10y bond yield
8%
─ ─ Euro area nominal GDP growth, y/y
▬ ECB "refi" rate ▬ German 10y bond yield
8%
Forecast Forecast
6% 6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Far below the “natural” rate implied by GDP growth
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Stick to zero for the foreseeable period
5 Euro Area, spreads of Italy and Spain vs Germany
▬ Spain, 10y gov. rates spread with Germany
▬ Italy, 10y gov. rates spread with Germany
6.0%
Forecast
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
EBC”s purchases to put a cap on spreads,
6 Euro area, euro-dollar vs interest rates differential
▬ 3M EUR-USD rates spread
▬Euro vs dollar [RHS]
1.5%
Forecast
1.60
1.0%
1.50
0.5%
1.40
1.30
0.0%
1.20
-0.5%
1.10
-1.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.00
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
The US economy
7 US, housing market, strong recovery ahead
▬ Housing starts, x1000 [L]
▬ NAHB [R]
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
90
60
30
0
1990 1995 2000 2005
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2010 2015
0
The NAHB index still suggests housing starts will continue to gain momentum.
8 US, investment cycle vs corporate profits
▬ Nonfinancial corporate, fixed investment (% value added) [L]
▬ Nonfinancial corporate, net profits (% value added) [R]
22% 14%
20%
18%
16%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
14%
1990 1995 2000 2005
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2010 2015
2%
Corporate investment continues to recover, in the wake of high profit margins
9 US, retail sales not booming, but robust 10 US deleveraging, a concern for China?
▌Private consumption, 3m/3m, ann. [L]
▬ Retail sales, vol., 3m/3m, ann. [R]
6%
▬ US, households debt ratio (%gross income) -L-
▬ China, exports (% GDP) -R-
140%
3%
15%
10%
5%
0%
120%
40%
30%
0%
-3% car sales
(adjusted to scale)
-5%
-10%
-6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-15%
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
100%
80%
2000 2005 2010
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2015
20%
10%
Private consumption (read the left scale) is very robust, thanks to US households are still reducing their debt to income ratio, a the pick-up in employment and the fall in energy bill. process that weighs on Chinese exports.
11 US, no concern for inflation… neither deflation
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
▬ CPI Core y/y
▬ CPI Headline, y/y
4%
3%
Energy
-3%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-30%
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Energy is largely responsible for the decrease in inflation rate.
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) is rather stable and below 2%, which is the official target.
12 US, no concern for inflation… neither deflation
▬ CPI Core, y/y [LHS]
▬ Unit labor costs, y/y [RHS]
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
2000 2003 2006 2009
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2012 2015
No particular concern on wage front. However, at 5.5% in Feb. the unemployment rate is moving closer to the NAIRU as computed by the Fed.

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
The US economy
13 US, non-farm payrolls vs unemployment rate 14 US, labour force participation rate
▬ Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls (x1000) [L]
▬ Unemployment rate [R]
400
200
0
10%
9%
8%
Participation rate
% of total population
68%
66%
-200
-400
7%
6% 64%
-600 5%
63%
-800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4%
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
62%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Nonfarm payrolls have come stronger recently The trend is now close largely above +200K jobs (net) per month, allowing the unemployment rate to fall further
Part of the fall in the unemployment rate is explained by the historical low rate of labour force participation (workers getting older or simply discouraged don’t apply for a job…)
15 US, corporate credit, back to pre-crisis level 16 US, mortgage loans, far from pre-crisis level
▌Credit to corporate*, net flows, an $bn [L]
▬ Banks tightening credit, % [R]
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
2005 2007 2009 2011
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2013 2015
90
60
30
0
-30
▌Mortgage credit ., net flows $bn an. [L]
▬ Banks tightening credit, % [R]
1 800
1 200
600
0
-600
2005 2007 2009 2011
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2013 2015
90
60
30
0
-30
Credit conditions are loose and flows to corporate (loans & bond issues) are back to their pre-crisis level…
… which is not the case for mortgage loans. They have recently stopped to contract, after a five year period of slump. But lending activity for house purchases is still very weak
18 US, narrowing current account deficit
Current account balance
% GDP
2%
17 US, narrowing budget deficit
Budget balance
% GDP
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
On the fiscal front, brakes are coming off owing to improved receipts. The federal budget deficit is shrinking rapidly.
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Current account deficit is closing at a time when the US economy is recovering, a rather unusual story.

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
The US economy
19 US, Fed funds rate and inflation
▬ Fed funds
▬ Core CPI, yy
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
2000 2003 2006 2009
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Negative real Fed funds rates
2012 2015
Fed funds rates have been negative in real terms for now six years.
20 US, real Fed funds rate and unemployment rate
▌Real Fed Funds rate [L]
▬ Unemployment rate [R]
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
2000 2003 2006
Negative real Fed funds rates
2009
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2012 2015
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
A 5% to 5.5% level in unemployment rate is the limit where real
Fed fund rates start to be positive.
21 US, real estate investment trusts balance sheet 22 US, Federal reserve balance sheet
REITS Balance sheet
▬ MSB, $bn [R] ─ Repo as % of total liabilities [L]
40%
30%
20%
10%
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 0%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Source : Thomson Datastream, IMF, BNP Paribas
2015
Real estate investment trusts (REITS) use repo markets as a source of funding for longer-term, less-liquid assets like RMBS.
Some are vulnerable to contagion risks / asset fire sales [IMF].
Federal Reserve, total assets
USD bn
5 000
4 500
4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2-juil.
Federal Reserve’s total assets increased more six time since
2007 and now account for 25% of GDP. The QE is now over and the Fed is expected to hike rates by mid-2015.
24 US, investment hit by falling oil prices, stronger dollar
Dollar, real effective exchange rate
Deviation from long-term average
30%
▌Invest. Mach.& Eqpt., q/q, ann. [L]
▬ Cap. Good orders , 3m/3m, ann. [R]
20% 40%
20%
10%
10% 20%
0% 0%
0%
-10%
-10% -20%
-20%
-30%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, IMF, BNP Paribas
Looking at the real effective exchange rate (trade weighted & adjusted for inflation) the dollar has moved back toward its long term equilibrium level.
-20% -40%
-30%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-60%
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Stronger dollar and falling energy prices may have dampen corporate investment during the first quarter of 2015, especially in the shale oil sector.

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
The Euro area economy
25 Euro area, better prospects 26 Euro area, consumption strengthening
▌GDP, q/q, ann. [L]
▬ PMI composite [R]
60
4%
2%
0%
55
50
-2%
-4%
45
-6%
40
-8%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
35
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
The composite PMI close to the 55 level suggests GDP would expand at a 1.5% to 2% annual pace over the first half of 2015.
▌Private consumption, yy
▬ Retail sales, vol., yy
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2015 2016
Consumption to be the main driver behind the Eurozone recovery at the early stage of 2015. Data are particularly impressive in
Germany.
27 Germany, GDP growth vs business surveys
▌GDP, q/q, ann. [L]
- - - PMI Manuf.[R] ▬ PMI composite [R]
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
40
35
-8%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
30
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
65
60
55
50
45
Better business surveys + buoyant retail sales point toward stronger activity at the start of 2015.
29 France, construction activity still very low
Housing permits and starts
12 m cumulated, x1000
600
28 France, GDP Growth vs business surveys
▌GDP, q/q, ann. [L]
- - - Composite indicator (BdF&Insee) ▬ PMI [R]
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
40
35
-8%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
30
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
65
60
55
50
45
The rebound is not as impressive as in Germany. However, surveys are less depressed, companies own prospects look better in the manufacturing industry
30 France, budgetary effort
Change in Gen. Govt. primary structural deficit, % GDP
█ EMU █ France
1.5%
500
1.0%
400
300
0.5%
200
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2011 2015
0.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, European Commission BNP Paribas
Part of the French poor performance in Europe is due to the housing market, trending at all-time low. According to the INSEE, the fall in the property market drags 0.4pp to growth in 2014.
The fiscal effort (the reduction in structural deficit) has come higher in France than in the rest of the Euro area since 2013. But the way is will be prolonged through 2015 is an open question

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
The Euro area economy
31 Italy, GDP growth vs business surveys 32 Spain, GDP growth vs business surveys
▌GDP, q/q, ann. [L]
- - - PMI Manuf.[R] ▬ PMI composite [R]
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
40
35
-8%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
30
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
65
60
55
50
45
By early 2015, the first genuine sign of expanding activity since four year…
▌GDP, q/q, ann. [L]
- - - PMI Manuf.[R] ▬ PMI composite [R]
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
40
35
-8%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
30
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
65
60
55
50
45
Spain is on a good track. The PMI above the 55 level suggests that the economy keeps expanding at a 2% 2.5% annual rate…
33 Euro area, fixed investment vs cap. utilization rate
▬ Investment (Mach. & Equipt) % of GDP (LHS)
▬ Capacity utilisation rate (RHS)
11.5% 90%
11.0%
10.5%
85%
80%
10.0%
9.5%
2000 2003 2006 2009
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Higher capacity utilisation rates…
2012
34 Euro area, corporate fixed investment vs profits
▬ Investment (Mach. & Equipt) % of GDP (LHS)
▬ Unit profit margin index, whole economy. (2002 = 100, RHS)
11.5% 106
11.0%
10.5%
104
102
75% 10.0% 100
2015
70% 9.5%
2000 2003 2006 2009
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2012 2015
98
… and stabilisation in profit margins might prompt companies investment to pick up, albeit from very low levels.
35 Euro area, trend in corporate profits
Corporates profit margin index, 2002 = 100
▬ Spain ─ Ireland
130
36 Euro area, trend in unit labour costs
Unit labor costs (2001 = 100)
▬ EMU - - -France ─ Spain
140
120 130
110 120
100 110
90
2002 2005 2008 2011
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2014
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Corporate profits at historical high in Spain, Portugal and Ireland Spain is becoming more and more competitive within the Euro area, challenging Italy &
France…

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
The Euro area economy
37
Exports, 2008 = 100 (vol.)
▬ Germany ─ Spain
120
110
100
90
Euro area, trend in exports for some countries
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Spain and Portugal : an export- led recovery, that now spreads on domestic demand, mainly companies investment
38
Euro area, the periphery is getting more and more competitive
Current account, % GDP
▬ Italy ─ ─ Portugal ─ Spain --- Ireland
9%
6%
3%
0%
-3%
-6%
-9%
-12%
-15%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
“Internal devaluations” led to a significant reduction in unit labour costs and surge in external surpluses at the periphery of the
EMU
39 EMU, distribution of foreign direct investments
Foreing direct investments
% GDP, 2 year cumulated flows, upt to 2014Q1
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
IR PT GR ES BG FN FR IT NL BD OE
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
… It also allowed foreign direct investments to come back.
40 EMU, closing imbalances
Intra EMU trade balances, % GDP
▬ Germany - - - Italy ─ Spain
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Intra-EMU imbalances have been reduced or closed, as a result of the global deleveraging process. For the first times since the launch of the euro, Germany gets no trade surpluses inside EMU
41 Germany, current account balance with China
German current account with China
% GDP
0.5%
42 EMU, current account balance
Current account balance
% GDP
3%
0.0%
2%
1%
0%
-0.5%
-1%
-1.0%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Part the German surpluses have shifted from EMU to emerging countries. Trade in goods and services with China is now generating positive revenues
-2%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
The largest current account surplus ever seen…

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
The Euro area economy
43 Euro area, the fall in the euro beccomes very supportive 44
Trend in th euro (2011 = 100)
▬ Against the dollar ─ Trade weighted
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
2011 2012 2013 2014
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2015
Down 20% against the dollar, 10% in nominal effective terms.
Empirical models suggest the positive response to the shock could be +0.5/ +0.7 pp of GDP after one year.
Euro area, decoupling yields
▬ 10y Govt. Bond yield, Germany
▬ 10y Govt. Bond yield, US
5%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
4%
3%
2%
-3%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2.4%
0.85%
2-juil.
10 year yield spread between the Bunds and Treasuries is close to 200 bps, a record.
45 Euro Area, credit to corporates vs bank lending survey 46 Spain, credit to corporates (<1y, EUR 1mn)
▌Credit to corporate*, net flows EUR bn [L]
▬ Expected tightening, % [R] - - - Expected demand, % [R]
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
2005 2007 2009 2011
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2013 2015
90
75
60
45
30
15
0
-15
-30
Spain, credit to corporates (<1y & 1M EUR)
▬ Annualized net flows (EURbn, s.a., monthly) ▬ Trend
100
0
-100
-200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
ECB’s bank lending surveys are improving with credit standards … credit to corporates (under 1 year and EUR 1mn) tends to pick back to their normal levels. Demand for credit addressed by the private sector is weak, but expected to improve… up in Spain, albeit from very depressed levels.
47 Fall in interest rates… not everywhere 48 Cross border lending activity as not yet recovered
Interest rates on banks lending to corporates (<1y, 1MEUR)
▬ Spain --- France ─ ECB (refi)
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2003 2006 2009
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2012 2015
Cross border holdings, "Core" vs "Periphery"
% GDP
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
1999 2002 2005 2008
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2011 2014
First positive reaction of ECB asset purchase program? Interest rates charged by Spanish banks have come down recently …
Cross border lending activity is still very low in the Eurozone and partly explained by the new regulatory environment

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
The Euro area economy
49 Euro Area, M3 vs core inflation rate 50 Monetary aggregates, Euro area vs US
▬ CPI Core y/y [L]
▬ M3, y/y [R]
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
15%
12%
9%
6%
Monetary aggregates (2008 = 100)
— EMU (M3) ▬ US (M2)
160
150
140
130
120
1.0% 3%
110
0.5% 0%
100
0.0%
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
-3%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
The main monetary aggregate M3 is bottoming out. But this is Money growth still subdued when compared to other developed largely as a result of investors shift toward liquid assets from longer-term financial liabilities. countries like the US or UK.
51 Euro area, core inflation rate by country
Core inflation
May. 2015
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
OE IR BG BD NL EMU FR IT FN PT ES GR
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
Now positive everywhere except in Greece
52
Euro Area, ECB “refi” rate vs determinants
▬ Core inflation rate [L]
▬ Unemploment rate [R, inv.] - - - "Refi" rate [L]
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2015
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
The ECB has opted for an ultimate cut in interest rates on sept.
4. The refi is now 0.05%, while the deposit facility is charged at
0.20%. We do not expected any change in key rate before 2018.
53 Italian 10 year rates 54 Spanish 10 year rates
Italy, Govt. bond yields
▬ 10y ─ 2y
8%
7%
6%
5%
2-juil.
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2.33%
0.41%
Spain, Govt. bond yields
▬ 10y ─ 2y
8%
7%
6%
5%
A sharp rebound in 10 year yield as a result of global bond price Same story reassessment. No particular tension on spreads, despite of
Greece…
2-juil.
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2.31%
0.40%

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
The Euro area economy
55 Central bank balance sheet 56 Central bank balance sheet (at June 2015)
Central banks total assets, % of GDP
▬ ECB ─ Fed - - - BoE - - - BoJ
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2007 2009 2011
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
2013 2015
Gen. Govt. Debt hold by central banks
% of 2014 GDP
3.1%
20.9%
24.4%
ECB BoE Fed
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
59.7%
Boj
On sept 4 2014, the ECB announced it will start buying ABS and reintroduce a security market program focused on covered
ECB’s public debt holding has nothing to compare with those of others central banks. However, a large QE (

10pct of GDP) bonds. It’s balance sheet will start to expand again… based on government bonds purchases is launched
57 Banks current account to the ECB
- - - Rate on deposit facility [RHS]
▬ Excess reserves, €bn [LHS] ▬ Deposit facility, €bn [LHS]
1 000 0.20%
500
0
-500
-1 000
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
Source : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas
The ECB has opted for a negative interest rate on deposit facilities and excess reserves. Banks current accounts to the
ECB have come down, but will start to rise again with the QE.
58 EUR vs GBP
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
2000
EUR vs GBP [L]
3M Rates differential (%)
2003 2006
Reactive to real rates spreads…
2009 2012 2015
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
GDP
In 2014
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium
Austria
Greece
Portugal
Finland
Ireland
€bn
2 904
2 142
1 616
1 058
655
402
329
179
173
204
185
EMU 10 070 -259.1
United Kingdom 2 222 -126.3
EU 13 929 -401.9
United States 13 113 -643.5
Gen. Gov. fiscal balance
Total
€bn
19.4
%GDP
0.7
Primary
%GDP
2.4
Struct.
%GDP
1.2
Interest paym ent
€bn
50.6
%GDP
1.7
Av. rate
Public debt
Total
€bn
2.3
2 170
%GDP
74.7
Rating S&P
AAA
-84.8
-49.1
-61.4
-15.0
-4.0
-3.0
-5.8
-2.3
-1.8
1.6
-2.5
-0.8
-2.6
-0.9
-2.0
-0.2
47.1
75.2
34.5
9.5
2.2
4.7
3.3
1.4
2.4
3.6
3.6
2.2
2 038
2 135
1 034
451
95.1
132.1
97.7
68.8
AA
BBB-
BBB
AA+
-13.1
-7.9
-6.4
-3.2
-2.4
-3.5
-0.2
-0.0
0.4
-2.8
-0.4
0.4
12.4
7.8
7.0
3.1
2.4
3.9
3.0
3.0
2.2
428 106.5
278 84.5
317 177.1
AA
AA+
CCC-
-7.7
-6.4
-7.6
-4.5
-3.2
-4.1
0.5
-1.9
-0.1
-0.8
-1.6
-4.1
8.6
2.6
7.5
5.0
1.3
4.0
3.9
2.3
3.5
225 130.2
121 59.4
203 109.6
BB
AA+
A+
-2.6
-5.7
-2.9
-4.9
0.1
-2.9
-0.3
-1.3
-1.0
-5.3
271.1
60.9
-1.7 353.7
-4.0 478.8
2.7
2.7
2.5
3.7
2.9
3.4
3.0
3.8
9 515
2 055
12 341
15 032
94.5
92.5
88.6
114.6
AAA
AA+
-5.7 -7.8 2.0
0.9
8 301 238.7
AAJapan 3 478 -269.8
Sources : European Commission, BNPP
-7.8 70.5

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
● William DE VIJLDER
Chief Economist
● Jean-Luc PROUTAT
Head
● Alexandra ESTIOT
Deputy Head - Globalization, United States, Canada
● Hélène BAUDCHON
France, Belgium, Luxembourg
● Frédérique CERISIER
Public finances - European institutions
● Clemente DE LUCIA
Euro area, Italy - Monetary issues - Economic modelling
● Thibault MERCIER
Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland
● Caroline NEWHOUSE
Germany, Austria - Supervision of publications
● Catherine STEPHAN
United Kingdom, Switzerland, Nordic countries - Labour market
● Raymond VAN DER PUTTEN
Japan, Australia, Netherlands – Environment - Pensions
●
● Laurent QUIGNON
Head
● Delphine CAVALIER
● Céline CHOULET
● Laurent NAHMIAS
● François FAURE
Head
● Christine PELTIER
Deputy Head - Methodology - China, Vietnam
● Stéphane ALBY
Africa, French-speaking countries
● Sylvain BELLEFONTAINE
Latin America - Methodology, Turkey
● Pascal DEVAUX
Middle East - Scoring
● Anna DORBEC
CIE, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia
● Hélène DROUOT
Asia
● Johanna MELKA
Asia - Capital flows
● Alexandra WENTZINGER
Africa, Brazil
● Michel BERNARDINI
Public Relation Officer
+33.(0)1.55.77.47.31
+33.(0)1.42.98.56.54
+33.(0)1.43.16.95.41
+33.(0)1.43.16.95.54
+33.(0)1.42.98.44.24
+33.(0)1.42.98.79.82
+33.(0)1.42.98.56.27
+33.(0)1.42.98.02.04
+33.(0)1.42.98.26.77
+33.(0)1.43.16.95.51
+33.(0)1.42.98.48.45
+33.(0)1.42.98.33.00
+33.(0)1.58.16.05.84
+33.(0)1.55.77.80.60
+33.(0)1.42.98.05.71
+33.(0)1.58.16.73.32
+33.(0)1.58.16.81.69
+33.(0)1.58.16.03.63
+33.(0)1.43.16.95.52
+33.(0)1.42.98.27.62
+33.(0)1.57.43.02.91
+33.(0)1.43.16.95.50
+33.(0)1.55.77.71.89
+33.(0)1.42.98.53.99
+33.(0)1.43.16.95.56 william.devijlder@bnpparibas.com jean-luc.proutat@bnpparibas.com alexandra.estiot@bnpparibas.com helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.com frederique.cerisier@bnpparibas.com clemente.delucia@bnpparibas.com thibault.mercier@bnpparibas.com caroline.newhouse@bnpparibas.com catherine.stephan@bnpparibas.com raymond.vanderputten@bnpparibas.com tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.com laurent.quignon@bnpparibas.com delphine.cavalier@bnpparibas.com celine.choulet@bnpparibas.com laurent.nahmias@bnpparibas.com francois.faure@bnpparibas.com christine.peltier@bnpparibas.com stephane.alby@bnpparibas.com sylvain.bellefontaine@bnpparibas.com pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.com anna.dorbec@bnpparibas.com helene.drouot@bnpparibas.com johanna.melka@bnpparibas.com alexandra.wentzinger@bnpparibas.com michel.bernardini@bnpparibas.com

Group Economic Research /// OECD Countries ///
Eco’Charts /// 09 July 2015
CONJONCTURE
Structural or in the news flow, two issues analysed in depth
EMERGING
Analyses and forecasts for a selection of emerging economies
PERSPECTIVES
Analyses and forecasts for the main countries, emerging or developed
ECOWEEK
Weekly economic news and much more…
ECOFLASH
Data releases, major economic events.
Our detailed views…
ECOTV
In this monthly webTV, our economists make sense of economic news
ECOTV WEEK
What is the main event this week? The answer is in your two minutes of economy
The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from, or are based on, public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate, complete or up to date and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other investment. Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient, are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. To the fullest extent permitted by law, no BNP Paribas group company accepts any liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on material contained in this report. All estimates and opinions included in this report are made as of the date of this report. Unless otherwise indicated in this report there is no intention to update this report. BNP
Paribas SA and its affiliates (collectively “BNP Paribas”) may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of any issuer or person mentioned in this report or derivatives thereon. BNP
Paribas may have a financial interest in any issuer or person mentioned in this report, including a long or short position in their securities and/or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon.
Prices, yields and other similar information included in this report are included for information purposes.
Numerous factors will affect market pricing and there is no certainty that transactions could be executed at these prices. BNP Paribas, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any person mentioned in this report. BNP Paribas may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any person referred to in this report. BNP Paribas may be a party to an agreement with any person relating to the production of this report. BNP Paribas, may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the research or analysis on which it was based, before its publication. BNP Paribas may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from or in relation to any person mentioned in this report. Any person mentioned in this report may have been provided with sections of this report prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy.
BNP Paribas is incorporated in France with limited liability. Registered Office 16 Boulevard des Italiens,
75009 Paris. This report was produced by a BNP Paribas group company. This report is for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or delivered or transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of BNP Paribas. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Certain countries within the European Economic Area:
This report is solely prepared for professional clients. It is not intended for retail clients and should not be passed on to any such persons. This report has been approved for publication in the United Kingdom by
BNP Paribas London Branch. BNP Paribas London Branch is authorised and supervised by the Autorité de
Contrôle Prudentiel and authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority.
Details of the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request.
This report has been approved for publication in France by BNP Paribas SA, incorporated in France with
Limited Liability and is authorised by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel (ACP) and regulated by the
Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) whose head office is 16, boulevard des Italiens 75009 Paris,
France.
This report is being distributed in Germany either by BNP Paribas London Branch or by BNP Paribas
Niederlassung Frankfurt am Main, a branch of BNP Paribas S.A. whose head office is in Paris, France.
BNP Paribas S.A. – Niederlassung Frankfurt am Main, Europa Allee 12, 60327 Frankfurt is authorised and supervised by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel and it is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin).
United States : This report is being distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp., or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas that is not registered as a US broker-dealer to US major institutional investors only.BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory
Authority and other principal exchanges. BNP Paribas Securities Corp. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-U.S. affiliate only when distributed to U.S. persons by BNP
Paribas Securities Corp.
Japan : This report is being distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas not registered as a financial instruments firm in Japan, to certain financial institutions defined by article 17-3, item 1 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law
Enforcement Order. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited is a financial instruments firm registered according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan and a member of the Japan Securities
Dealers Association and the Financial Futures Association of Japan. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan)
Limited accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-Japan affiliate only when distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited. Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan.
Hong Kong : This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch, a branch of
BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch is registered as a
Licensed Bank under the Banking Ordinance and regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. BNP
Paribas Hong Kong Branch is also a Registered Institution regulated by the Securities and Futures
Commission for the conduct of Regulated Activity Types 1, 4 and 6 under the Securities and Futures
Ordinance.