Infrastructure, Engineering and
Climate Change Adaptation
Dr Tim Fox CEng FIMechE CEnv
Head of Energy and Environment
Institution of Mechanical Engineers
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
1
Talk overview
• Background
• Methodology
• Machines, Energy, Water and Transport
• Interdependencies
• Barriers and Opportunities
• Findings & Recommendations
• Next Steps
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
2
Background
• IMechE ‘Adapting to the
Inevitable?’ report (2009)
• Defra ‘Adapting National
Infrastructure’ – two year
programme reported March
• Cross-Whitehall project –
‘Infrastructure, Engineering
and Climate Change
Adaptation’ work-stream
• ‘Engineering the Future’ collaboration
report published February
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
3
Engineers and Adaptation
• Protecting current infrastructure assets and
designing new infrastructure for changing climate
• Consider short term and long term impacts
• Invest engineering effort to minimise risks, to users
and the economy, and maximise opportunity
• Vulnerabilities, sector specific and interdependencies
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
4
Methodology
• Five workshops - one per sector (energy, water,
transport, ITC) and one covering interdependencies
• Participants – engineers from industry and academia,
regulators and government agencies
• UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) and points of
departure for each sector
• Issues covered




Expected vulnerabilities and critical pinch points
Interdependencies and potential for cascade failures
Adaptation measures and role of engineering
Barriers, opportunities and who needs to act
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
5
UKCP09 Projections for the UK
• Climate changes
 Hotter, drier summers with frequent heat waves and
prolonged severe droughts
 Warmer, wetter winters with more severe storms and
increased incidence of heavy flooding
 Increased intensification of the above over time with
more distinct seasonal contrast
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
6
Machines (1)
• A medium-term issue for machines
 Design life / replacement cycles of 15 – 30 years
 But life extensions and refurbishments to 50+ years
 Operational environment will change during lifetime
• UKCP09 will help plan for the 21st Century
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
7
Machines (2)
• Operating environment will change






Air coolant / water coolant intake temperature
Ambient air / water temperature
Lubricant performance
Resilience to water composition in flooding and drought
Resilience to water ingress
Changes in air moisture content
• Process
 Resilience to climate impacts
 Changes in maintenance regimes
 Changes in human contribution
• Design codes, standards, guides and regulations
 Review and update in light of climate projections
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
8
Energy and Water
• Energy





Location of power stations (60+ years but site longer)
Machine performance
Decentralised generation
International grid
Renewable yields and demand
• Water






Flooding, sea level rise, drought and contamination
Effluent release
Sourcing and capture
Storage and distribution
Pure, grey and black
Desalination
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
9
Transport
• Infrastructure





Valley and coastal routes
Landslip and earthworks
2007 floods cost network rail £36million
Redundancy and increased capacity
Underground systems
• Rolling Stock




25+ year replacement cycle
Signalling
Increase capacity
Cooling and resilience
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
10
Energy Interdependencies
• Sector dependent on:
 Water for cooling, flood protection and health
 Transport for fuel supply, product distribution and staff
 ICT for control, management, data communication
• Energy is required for:




Water treatment plant and pumping stations
Powering of ICT infrastructure
Driving transport systems
Running energy infrastructure
• Shared vulnerabilities in co-located
services
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
11
Barriers and Opportunities
• Barriers to implementation:
 Increased cost and need for
additional finance
 Benefits separated from source of
finance
 Regulation and legislation
 Public opinion and expectations
 Manufacturing and engineering
capacity
• Opportunities arising:
 Export of expertise and knowledge
 Development of markets for smart technologies and storage
and distributed energy technology
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
12
Findings & Recommendations 1
• Planning for adaptation
 Distinguish short term and long term, prioritisation
 Interdependencies and prioritisation of energy sector
• Regulation and governance
 Probabilistic rather than absolute
 System of systems approach, sharing data & collaboration
 Standards adapted, new service thresholds
• Technology and innovation
 Impacts no more extreme than currently faced elsewhere
 Cost-effectiveness and innovation on overseas technology
 Continuous monitoring for reactive maintenance
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
13
Findings & Recommendations 2
• Information and learning
 Sharing of research, learning and experiences
 Adoption of common definitions and classifications
 Co-ordination and dissemination
• Engineering profession and skills
 Embrace probabilistic methods, deal with complex risks
 More engineers with complex systems skills
• Public engagement and communication
 Expectation management, changing threshold limits
 Openly address achievability and affordable service levels
 Better understanding of impact of weather on behaviour
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
14
Next Steps
• Government




National Adaptation Plan – Infrastructure
Regulatory changes
Standards
Public engagement
http://www.defra.gov.uk/publications/2011/05/09/climate-resilient-infrastructure/
• Engineering Profession




Innovate on overseas practice
Develop systems thinking
Modify design methods and codes
Extend capacity and skills
www.raeng.org.uk/adaptation
Improving the world through engineering
www.imeche.org
15