Date: 13 February 2007 FY06 results YNH PROPERTY BERHAD (YNHPROP) RM680m Market Capitalisation: 3158 Board: Main Sector: Properties BUY Recommendation: Key Stock Statistics Share Price Chart 7.7 Dividend/Share (sen) 5,000,000 NTA/Share (RM) 1.34 4,000,000 Book Value/Share (RM) 1.39 3,000,000 Issued Capital (mil shares) 354.0 2,000,000 RM2.09 (H) - RM1.18 (L) 1,000,000 % 1.5 1.0 0.5 18/01/2007 15/11/2006 12/09/2006 7.59 10/07/2006 EPF 0.0 07/05/2006 18.0 04/03/2006 0 Dato’ Dr.Yu Kuan Chon 13/02/2005 Major Shareholders: 2.0 6,000,000 10.0 52-weeks Share Price Range 2.5 7,000,000 30/12/2005 9.4 8,000,000 27/10/2005 P/E (est.) 2007(F) 25.0 24/08/2005 2006 20.4 21/06/2005 EPS (est.) 18/04/2005 Stock Code: RM1.92 Price: Per Share Data Y/E Dec Book Value (RM) 2004 1.16 2005 1.25 2006 1.39 2007F 1.56 Cash Flow (sen) 15.2 16.5 20.6 25.2 Earnings (sen) 14.9 16.3 20.4 25.0 Dividend (sen) 10.5 11.0 10.0 11.0 Payout Ratio 51.5 51.8 35.5 31.7 PER (x) 12.9 11.8 9.4 7.7 P/Cash Flow (x) 12.6 11.7 9.3 7.6 P/Book Value (x) 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 EPS (sen) Dividend Yield (%) 5.5 5.7 5.2 5.7 ROE (%) 12.6 12.2 14.6 16.0 Net Gearing (%) 20.3 18.9 16.6 21.4 P&L Analysis (RM m) Year-end: Dec Revenue 2004 122.0 2005 168.7 2006 265.3 2007F 310.3 Operating Profit 53.4 77.4 102.7 125.1 Depreciation (0.7) (0.7) (0.8) (1.0) Interest Expenses (3.2) (2.5) (4.1) (4.5) Pre-tax Profit 51.0 75.0 98.7 121.0 Effective Tax Rate 24.9 28.6 27.2 27.0 Net Profit 38.3 53.6 71.8 88.3 Operating Margin (% ) 43.8 45.9 38.7 40.3 Pre-tax Margin (% ) 41.8 44.5 37.2 39.0 Net-Margin (% ) 31.4 31.8 27.1 28.5 PP 12242/4/2005 FY06 Highlights: (RMm) Q406 Q306 % chg FY06 FY05 168.7 % chg 57 Revenue 80.5 89.0 (10) 265.3 Op Profit 28.0 26.2 7 102.8 77.5 33 Int expense (1.3) (0.9) 47 (4.1) (2.5) 61 Pretax profit 26.7 25.3 6 98.7 75.0 32 Net profit 18.9 18.3 4 71.8 53.6 34 5.4 5.2 3 20.4 16.3 26 Op margin % 34.8 29.4 38.8 46.0 Pretax margin% 33.2 28.4 37.2 44.5 Net margin % 23.5 20.6 27.1 31.8 FY06 results were within expectations. Despite the lacklustre property market, YNH Property Berhad (YNH) posted a 57% Y/Y rise in revenue in FY06, underpinned by stronger contributions from its property development projects in Perak and Klang Valley. Pretax profit rose by a smaller 32% due to lower margins while FY06 EPS grew by 26% Y/Y to 20.4 sen on a 7% rise in weighted share capital to 351.9m shares. YNH proposed a final gross dividend of 5 sen, bringing the total gross dividend in FY06 to 10.0 sen. This is slightly below our projection of 11 sen per share. Strong momentum should continue into 2007. YNH is confident of better results in FY07, underpinned by higher contributions from its projects in Kuala Lumpur. It is currently developing several projects with gross development value (GDV) of over RM4b. Looking ahead, property development projects in Klang Valley are expected to generate 80% of group profit, with the 20% balance from its Perak projects. www.kimengresearch.com.sg YNH Property Berhad 13 February 2007 of GDV – are expected to have a combined GDV of RM1b and will start to contribute in 2009. Table 1: YNH’s property projects GDV (RMm) Area (acre) Projects in Kuala Lumpur 2440 Lot 163 Suites, Jalan Perak 280 1.0 Ceriaan Kiara, Mont’ Kiara 160 3.1 Wisma YNH, besides Shangri-La Kuala Lumpur 1000 3.0 Land behind Renaissance KL along Jalan Sultan Ismail 200 2.0 Projects 1-5 Duta (near Duta Nusantara & Duta Solaris) 800 18.0 Projects in Perak 2300 Manjung Point 2300 • • • • YNH will continue to scout for prime land in the Klang Valley. This includes a 6-acre land near Plaza Mont Kiara, which could be developed jointly with several foreign parties into an integrated commercial development with a GDV of at least RM0.5b. Finance & dividends Balance sheet is healthy, with net gearing of about 17% as of Dec 2006. Dividends-wise, YNH’s policy is to allocate at least 30% of its net profit as dividends. With better profits, we expect YNH to raise its gross dividend to 11 sen per share in FY07, translating to a net payout of 32%. 782 Balance Sheet Lot 163 Suites – The project is located in Jalan Perak (next to Wisma Hong Leong), and comprises service apartments, a retail arcade and an office tower. Its GDV has risen to RM280m from RM218m, due to an increase in lettable office space to around 100,000 sq ft. Take-up rate for the service apartments is around 90%, while the office block is up for en-bloc sale. Y/E 31 Dec (RMm) Ceriaan Mont Kiara – The project, which is expected to be launched soon, is in the affluent Mont Kiara area and will have 238 units of high-end condominiums. The GDV is now higher at RM160m from RM140m previously, thanks to an increase of its selling price to RM360 psf. 2004 2005 2006 2007F Total Assets 461.1 623.1 668.8 771.0 Fixed Assets 114.5 166.1 147.8 151.8 Current Assets 166.9 330.7 369.9 418.2 L T Assets 179.7 126.3 151.0 201.0 Current Liabilities 121.7 111.4 125.8 129.7 L T Liabilities 46.1 57.8 46.1 96.1 Share Capital 261.3 350.6 354.0 354.0 Shareholders Funds 303.6 439.4 493.0 553.3 Major shareholders The Yu family now controls about 20% of YNH while the Employees Provident Fund holds another 7.6%. The Yu family also owns 20.7% of Rapid Synergy Berhad (RSB), a company listed on the Second Board of Bursa Malaysia. RSB is involved in property development, property investments and the precision tools business. We have been assured that YNH will remain the property development arm of the Yu family; and the family’s longterm plan is to make RSB its property investment arm. Wisma YNH – The flagship project is located next to Shangri-La Hotel Kuala Lumpur, and will be developed in a joint venture (60:40) with Singapore’s CapitaLand Limited. The iconic project, with 1.2m sq ft of Grade A office and retail space, has an estimated GDV of RM1b. Construction is expected to start in mid-2007, with completion slated for 2011. The MOU was signed on 20 Dec 2006; a definitive agreement will be signed once the relevant approvals have been obtained. Attractive valuations; BUY retained YNH remains attractively valued, at 7.7x FY07 PER and a projected dividend yield of more than 5%. A re-rating to a PER of 9x will translate to a target price of RM2.25. Manjung Point – Manjung Point, YNH’s flagship project in Perak with a GDV of RM2.3b, will be developed over 20 years. More than 60% of buyers are civil servants – mainly navy personnel at the nearby Lumut Naval Base. This project clearly benefits from having a near-by captive market. YNH is the largest property developer in the Manjung district, with an estimated market share of 65-70%. Annual output is about 500 residential and commercial units, with respective average selling prices of RM100,000 and RM350,000 per unit. YNH also secured several parcels of prime land in Kuala Lumpur (behind Renaissance Kuala Lumpur) and Mont Kiara (Project 1-5 Duta/Solaris), measuring 20 acres. These land parcels – which were acquired in joint ventures with landowners, who will receive a percentage 2 ANALYSTS’ COVERAGE / RESEARCH OFFICES SINGAPORE Sebastian HENG Head of Research +65 6432 1858 sebastianheng@kimeng.com Strategy Oil & gas Marine Stephanie WONG Regional Head of Institutional Research +65 6432 1451 swong@kimeng.com Telcos Media Consumer Gregory YAP +65 6432 1450 gyap@kimeng.com China Consumer Regional Themes Rohan SUPPIAH +65 6432 1455 rohan@kimeng.com Conglomerates Transport Pauline LEE +65 6432 1453 paulinelee@kimeng.com Bank & Finance Consumer Wilson Liew +65 6432 1454 wilsonliew@kimeng.com Properties David LOOMIS +65 6432 1417 dloomis@kimeng.com Korea Special Situations KELIVE Singapore ONG Seng Yeow Head of Research +65 6432 1832 ongsengyeow@kimeng.com TAN Chin Poh +65 6432 1859 chinpoh@kimeng.com GOH Han Peng +65 6432 1857 gohhanpeng@kimeng.com Geraldine EU +65 6432 1469 geraldineeu@kimeng.com Daniel THAM +65 6432 1412 danieltham@kimeng.com HONG KONG / CHINA Stephen BROWN Head of Research +852 2268 0638 stephenbrown@kimeng.com.hk Edward FUNG +852 2268 0632 edwardfung@kimeng.com.hk Utilities Telcos Ivan LI +852 2268 0641 ivanli@kimeng.com.hk Bank & Finance Alvin WONG +852 2268 0633 alvinwong@kimeng.com.hk Property Larry GRACE +852 2268 0630 larrygrace@kimeng.com.hk Oil & Gas Dennis LAM +852 2268 0635 dennislam@kimeng.com.hk Consumer Ivan CHEUNG +852 2268 0634 ivancheung@kimeng.com.hk Industrials Elsa YANG +852 2268 0631 elsayang@kimeng.com.hk China consumer MALAYSIA YEW Chee Yoon Head of Research +603 2141 1555 cheeyoon@kimengkl.com Strategy Banks Telcos Property Shipping Oil & gas Gaming Media Power Construction Food & Beverage Manufacturing Plantations Tobacco Electronics INDONESIA Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research +6221 3983 1458 ksetiawan@kimeng.co.id Strategy Telcos Cigarettes/Consumer Shipping Others Andrey WIJAYA +6221 3983 1457 andreywijaya@kimeng.co.id Retail Cement Pharmaceutical Mining Ricardo SILAEN +6281 3983 1455 rsilaen@kimeng.co.id Heavy Equipment Resources Property Yusuf Ade Winoto +6281 3983 1455 yawinoto@kimeng.co.id Banking Multifinance Yuniar RESTANTO +6221 3983 1455 yrestanto@kimeng.co.id Technical Analyst Adi N. 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