GROCERY REPORT Vietnam 2012 1 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. AGENDA Market MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK | FMCG OVERVIEW Channels RETAIL NOW & THE FUTURE Shoppers BELT BUCKLING | CONNECTED CONSUMERS 2 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MARKET Macro-economics FMCG Overview Outlook Will Vietnam GDP and CPI reach their 2012 targets? Is the Vietnam retail industry still attractive? 3 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. A very tough 2012 with only slightly positive signs appearing in Q3’12, but still below expectations for the year. GOVERNMENT PLAN 2012 GDP 66.5% CPI ≤ 10% ACTUAL Q3’12 GDP 4.7% CPI 7.% CPI YOY Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office 4 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. … which is still fragile under pressure from the recent upward trend in fuel and utilities. ▲50% ▲14% Mogas 92 VND/litre ▲5% ▲ 6% Gas VND/12kg tank ▲ Growth rate 01/09/12 vs 01/01/12 5 Source: xangdau.net & http://www.petrolimex.com.vn/ Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Service continues to drive the growth of the economy, particularly being led by the Trade sector. LABOUR STRUCTURE 51.6 mil employees GDP STRUCTURE 1,252,577 bil.VND 1st half 2012 1st half 2011 3.81% 2.81% 5.57% Value growth rate vs. YA Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office 6 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Growth is still there, but many companies are having problems. RETAIL-SERVICES SALES NO. COMPANIES DISSOLVED OR CEASED Jan/2012-Aug/2012 Jan/2012-Apr/12 • • • • Total value: 1,517,721 bil.VND Change vs LY: +17.9% Total volume: 17.735/ 647.627 companies Change vs LY +9.5% 7 Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Viet Nam retail drops out of top 30 countries of retail attractiveness by A.T Kearney. Inflation, high real estate price & interest and business procedure are still big concerns. VIET NAM Rank 1 2008 6 2009 14 2010 23 2011 X 2012 8 Source: A.T. Kearney Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. However, retail sector is still attractive to foreign investors despite total FDI decreases. Value growth rate vs. LY NEW FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT First 8 months 2012 vs 2011 -11% Total FDI 7% 01/01/12-20/08/12 5% Manufacturing& Processing 47% 01/01/11-20/08/11 48% 68% 20% +25% Real estate +467% Wholesale, Retail sale & Repairment +107% Other areas -86% 2% 3% 9 Source: Foreign Investment Agency Ministry of planning and investment Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. MARKET Macro-economics Macro-economic FMCG Overview Overview Outlook After sky rocketing inflation in 2011, how is Vietnam FMCG market doing? 10 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. FMCG volume growth trend resumes in light of cooling CPI though consumers are still concerned. Consumer confidence is still below 100 FMCG volume sales growth bounces back – strongest for Beverage & Milk-base Cooling CCI rests stable at low level 11 Source: Vietnam GSO and Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Vietnam is still the fastest growing FMCG market. FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS REGIONAL SUMMARY Q3, 2012 12 Source: Nielsen Growth reporter Q3, 2012 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Across most categories, particularly beverages. VALUE & VOLUME % CHANGE YA MAT JUL’12 FMCG (Inc. Beer) Beverage (Inc. Beer) 28 % 15 % Milk Based Product Food (excl Milk Base) 23% 11% Value Volume Personal Care 18% 4% 21% 6% Cigarette 18% 7% 19% 3% Household Care 15% -1 % 13 Source: Nielsen Retail Audit Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Most categories pose volume growth of 5-10% with an exception to beverages, Baby Diaper and RTDM. (YTD Jun’12 vs. YA) Half categories have medium volume growth of 5-10%; while 15% show higher growth of >10% Price hike around 10% for most categories except for dishwashing liquid, gum, snack, milk powder, shampoo and biscuit whose price hike >15% . 14 Source: Nielsen Retail Audit Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The biggest categories are Beer, Cigarette, Milk and Beverage which benefit the dominant positions of the players in such fields. TOP 10 MANUFACTURERS IN FMCG – 6 CITIES TT – VALUE % SHARE TOP 10 CATEGORIES IN FMCG – 6 CITIES TT – VALUE % SHARE 15 Source: Nielsen Retail Audit Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Manufacturers more reluctant to introduce new brands – and most of new brand launches are in Value pricing segment. New of new brands declines starting from early 2011 Increasing number of new launches in Value segment 16 Source: Nielsen Retail Audit Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Interestingly, Premium segment is either stable or increasing its share across categories. 50 PREMIUM SEGMENT CONTRIBUTION CHANGE YTD JUL 12 VS. YA 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Sauce Fem_Care Cigarette Bouillon-Msg Milk Powder Baby Diaper Fruit Juice Soft Drink Instant Noodle Toothbrush Snack Personal Wash Beer Energy Drink Dishwash Liquid Tissue Shampoo Biscuits & Pie RTD Tea Gums Facial Care HH Cleansers Deodorants Facial Tissue Body Lotion Toothpaste Mouth Wash Fabric Softener Insect_Aerosol Hair Conditioner Condensed Milk Packaged Water Baby Cereal Laundry Detergent RTD Milk Cooking Oil Insect_Coil 0 YTDLY YTDTY Price segmentation based on price index at 6 Cities, YTDJul’11 [>120 Premium] [100-120 HiMid] [80-100 LowMid] [<80 Low] Source: Nielsen Retail Audit 17 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Lower price gap between Premium and Mainstream contributes to the growth of Premium. Consumers tend to trade up with reduction in price gap of “Premium” and “Mainstream” products. Innovation is a contributor too Price Gap Change Premium vs. Mainstream Premium Volume Change Driven by Price Gap Reduction Biscuits -4.0% -3.0% CSD -3.0% Shampoo 2.6% 3.4% 6.5% 18 Source: Pricing Analytics Study, Vietnam 2011 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. CHANNELS The Now The Future How fast is modern trade growing? How is traditional trade trying to compete with modern trade? What are modern trade retailers doing to attract and retain consumers? 19 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Traditional Trade dominates in SEA but Modern Retailing is expanding its foot print. Vietnam has a big room to grow in terms of MT store density. RETAIL STORE DENSITY ANALYSIS (Number of stores per million population) 14,000 1,000 849 900 12,000 800 Grocery stores 700 Modern trade 600 10,000 8,000 514 500 6,000 400 300 295 304 209 200 4,000 162 136 100 9 6 38 65 Singapore Taiwan Korea Malaysia China Thailand Vietnam India Philippines Indonesia - HK - 2,000 85 94 96 89 57 63 49 22 6 46 44 Modern Trade Contribution 2011 Source: Nielsen Retail Census 20 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Traditional trade is still the dominant channel in Vietnam while Modern trade speeds up opening store especially in Hanoi. TRADITIONAL TRADE MODERN TRADE Value sales Contribution 70,000 2011 Total 36 Cities 60,000 943 50,000 40,000 2009 2010 30,000 Modern trade outlets (+25% vs 2010) 2011 20,000 10,000 0 30 Cities 4 Cities Hanoi HCM Store number- Nielsen Census Notes: Modern Trade contribution ( inc. Saigon Co.op, exclude Metro) Based on 36 largest urban areas in Vietnam : 4 Cities includes Haiphong, Danang, Cantho and Nhatrang Source: Nielsen Retail Census 21 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Within Hanoi, both large-scale chains and independent operators have developed rapidly over the past year. HCMC Chains still account for bulk of the sales • 38% out of 43% in HCMC • 19% out of 27% in Hanoi But, independents are growing in Hanoi • 3% to 4% to 8% in 3 years Hanoi Convenience stores have yet to make a mark as Supermarkets are still the preferred format in 2011 22 Source: Nielsen Retail Census including Saigon Co.op and Metro Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Attempts to invest in improving wet markets and support small traders. Market system development scheme 20112015: Investment of 2,782 bil.VND with 150.6 ha on developing 319 traditional market – tier I • Preserving 56 markets • Upgrading 110 markets • Building 153 markets Ministry of Industry and Trade cooperate with University of Economics to organize: “Sales skill training for small traders in wet markets”. “Wet market management skill training for the markets’ management boards” 23 Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade Decision 012/2007/QĐ-BCT Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. However, Supermarkets are increasingly preferred. Average Frequency of Visits per Month ▲ ▼ Consumers are moving from Wet Markets to Supermarkets Base: All Respondents (2010 n=1500, 2011 n=1500) Ref: Q8 Source: Nielsen Shopper Trends 2012 24 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Retailers of all types are implementing their expansion plans. 81 15 4 1/1-31/9/2012: 32 12+ Convenience Store new stores open each month 20 Health & Beauty Store 23 8 27 59 1 19 85 13 17 5 44 1 Minimart 46 6 Supermarket Supermarket 14 2 14 3 11 5 B&B 11 8 25 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Supermarkets implement a wide variety of programs to build loyalty and attract consumers. Preference from loyalty card Increased promotion frequencies Membership Card, VIP Card… With special offers: Stored up points, special promotion prices Difference with private label Focus on fresh & processed foods, household products, and garments. Heavily promoted through price and displays On-going promotions, themed to match holidays and specific categories or special customers New look by refreshing logo and department branding Coming with fresh, professional and friendly image 26 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. CHANNELS The Now The Future What lessons will Vietnamese retailers learn from other Asian countries? What will be the channel mix in the coming years? 27 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Retailers continue to expand their store base across AP with total number of stores increasing by over 25,000. Convenience stores have the fastest growth rate. Modern Trade Store No. by Format in Asia-Pacific (% annual growth) 28 Source: Nielsen Retail and Shopper Trend Asia Pacific 2012 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Convenience in Thailand: Innovation through Non-FMCG range has also attracted the shoppers. Available in 2011 CVS Bakery Additional Product & Service in Convenience Stores Auto & Travel products Fresh Coffee Smoothies Fresh Meat & Vegetables Home Appliances Payment Service Direct Marketing Media Books & Magazines Hot Served Snacks Restaurant RTE Meal IT & Stationary Seasonal Products 29 Source: Nielsen Shopper Trends 2012 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Minimarts in Indonesia: Thematic promotions and loyalty cards have helped the Mini-Marts succeed apart from the huge store base (+10,000 stores). New Year Thematic promotions Valentine’s Day Valentine’s Mother’s Day Unilever Fair School Holiday Fonterra Fair Homecare Fair Supplier Fairs Olay Promotion Unilever Fair Bi weekly Shopping Calendar Weekend Promotion Weekly Promotions Source: Nielsen Shopper Trends 2012 30 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. The change is coming to Vietnam too, as evidenced by some shopper segments… All shoppers bought daily food in Wet Markets Wholesalers Grocery Stores Super Markets Very few & expensive – visit once per year for curiosity Innovation Seeker and Prudent Shopper Wet Markets Present Super Markets Wet Markets Wet Markets Super Markets Convenien ce Stores Wholesalers Wholesalers Grocery Stores Grocery Stores Convenien ce Stores Metro Metro Fast Forward 2022 Conservative & Value Oriented Shopper Shopping Destination – Most Often Flashback 2005 Super Markets Wet market is thought to be swept out for its dirty and untidy image. Supermarket increase its network, thus increases in the frequency Convenience Stores / Mini Markets Metro 31 Source: Nielsen Shopper Focus Groups in HCM,HN 2012 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. …and backed up by the continuous retailer expansion 12/7/2012 1st HI-WAY supercenter 08/12/2011 1st MINISTOP CVS 31/5/2012 1st FLC Mart 07/2012 1st C EXPRESS CVS ANNOUNCED EXPANSION PLANS STORE NUMBER BY (YEAR) Co.op Mart +8 √100 2012 2015 Big C √ 24 √ 29 2012 2013 Lotte Mart +2 2012 Fivimart +3 2012 Hiway √3 √ 20 2013 2016 SUPERMARKETS Notes: (+) new stores. (√) in total CVSMINIMARTS STORE NUMBER BY (YEAR) Co.opFood + 30 √ 150 2012 2015 Satrafoods + 20 2013 TTGD Foods + 2-3 annually Circle K > 40 2012 Shop & Go √ 100 2012 Family Mart + 27 √ 43 2012 Ministop + 30 2012 32 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. SHOPPERS Belt Buckling Connected Consumers 33 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Concerns Discretionary spending *: ↑↓ vs. YA | vs. APAC average 66% Saving THE ECONOMY ↑ | vs. 60%* (19%) 32% Holiday ↓ | vs. 37%* 29% JOB SECURITY (18%) New technologies INCREASING = | vs. 30%* UTILITY BILL (12%) 28% HEALTH New clothes (8%) INCREASING FOOD PRICE (7%) 27% Home improveme nt ↑ | vs. 18%* ↓| vs. 35%* 28% Out of home entertai nment ↓ | vs. 34%* How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses? Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index Q2’2012 – Vietnam 34 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Consumers are tightening their belts. The recessionary mindset shifts consumer thinking from Nice to Have to Need to Have superfluous temptation Support on compulsory expenditures: gasoline, gas/electricity, water, insurance, rent… Core selling grocery products sales rise 35 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Hardship continues, consumers reduce shopping frequency and are much impacted by price. TOP 4 IMPACTS ON GROCERY PURCHASE CHOICE SHOPPING FREQUENCY 39% Weekly Wee k yl 64% 59% Every 2 weeks Ev er2 y wee k s 36% Every month 1% Ev e rm yon h t 0% Less often 1% Le sofe t n 0% 2011 2012 Base: All Supermarket shoppers (n = 1500) Compared with a year ago, how much impact has each of the following had on your choice of Grocery Purchases in the last 12 months? Source: Nielsen Shopper Trends Study 2012 36 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. To adapt, consumer are having more economic reactions which vary a lot (i.e. consuming same but larger packs, downgrading as well). CONSUMER REACTION TO PRICE INCREASE CHANGES IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR ACROSS CATEGORIES IN INFLATIONARY PERIOD % Change in Volume of consumption Bouillon How do you change your shopping habits to adapt to the price increases? Hair Con 20 Shampoo Buy more of Private Label brands Fab Soft 22 Laundry Buy more of smaller pack sizes Small pack Bouillon 36 Less amount Same brand Expensive brand Hair Con Change shopping channels to save money Same pack Shampoo 37 Same amount Fab Soft Buy cheaper brands Cheaper brand Laundry 37 Change in Brand purchased Big pack Bouillon Buy bigger pack sizes Laundry 41 Change in Pack size purchased More amount Hair Con Buy more Vietnamese brands Shampoo 66 Fab Soft Buy more on ‘Promotion’ 37 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Source: Consumer Omnibus Vietnam, Sept 2011Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. To react, retailers & manufacturers offer diversified promotions. Gas reward programs Will you be the 1st to step into this game? 38 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. « staying at home more often » Shopping patterns can emerge with consumer nesting - Out Of Home entertainment & restaurants + Home cooking + Friendliness ! + TV-viewing rising Cocooning In both products and Entertainment! 39 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Nesting consumers are heading back to their house. VALUE & VOLUME % CHANGE YA MAT JUL’12 Value Volume % CHANNEL GROWTH VS. YA Off vs. On 2011: 713,416 vs. 522,394 stores Meal Maker 285% 318% 2.6% vs. 2.1% Beer can 47 % 40 % 1.6% vs. 1.5% 40 Source: Nielsen Retail Audit Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Walmart partners with manufacturers on “family meals for less.” 41 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. ShopRite cooking on YouTube; monthly recipes featuring store brands. 42 Source: YouTube.com/user/ShopRiteStores Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. In the current climate, consumers and shoppers are re-appraising their store, brand and format choices with new lenses. Rising interest in Value-seeking Consumer Value ≠ Price Consumer Value = Benefits/Price • price positioning • simple and innovative Promotions • new value added initiatives 43 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Consumers also seek value through up-trading to more premium products and or buying big packs or pouch to save money. VOLUME SHARE OF PRICE TIER RANGES Sources: RA, Price Tier market: 6 Cities TT Enh, Pack size market: 36 Cities Enh TT + Rural Data ended Mar’12 VOLUME SHARE OF PACK-SIZE RANGES – GT URBAN Shampoo Fabclean Small Pack <400ml <3kg Big Pack >= 400ml >=3kg DWL HCL =<1000L =<500ml >1L >500ml 44 Source: Nielsen Retail Audit Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Innovation themes… Taste changing Cigarette Organic products Perfume Fabric Softener Milk Beverage Ecobags No fried Instant Noodle Laundry Liquid 45 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. SHOPPERS Belt Buckling Connected Consumers 46 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. What’s Next: Consumers are more and more Connected **End of 2012: Every 5 Vietnamese consumers, there will be and Tablet users will increase from 1 smartphone 2% to 5% 2015: Mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common web access Speed of action Offers flexibility 47 Grocery report 2012 Image/Vietnam Buzz Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 92% of Vietnamese consumers are more likely to trust recommendations from people they know* Conduct product research online 72 Look up product information online 70 Read a grocery retailer's circular/flyer online 59 Compare prices for a grocery product online 59 Browse a manufacturer's website for a grocery category 53 Look for deals online 49 Look for coupons from an online coupon site 48 Purchase a product online 47 Provide feedback about a grocery category through social media (wrote a review, blogged) 27 Use a digital shopping list 12 Other 11 None of the above 63% are more likely to trust consumer opinion posted online** 6 Thinking about Household Grocery Shopping, which of the following activities have you done in the last month on any online connected device?* Sources: * Global Trust in advertising Q3 2011 **Nielsen Global Digital Shopping –Q1 2012 48 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. To stay in the game, manufacturers keep an eye on internet advertisements. Marketing return on investment* Advertisers’ spending - % Chg YTD – Global Average** 49 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Sources: *Nielsen Advanced Analytics Consulting - 2009 **Nielsen Global Ad View Pulse Lite Q1 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Building demand by connecting consumers (with each other and with brand). Collective Buying Power Sharing Experiences Reviews Ratings Recommendations Referrals Forums, Social Q&A Sharing Ideas 50 50 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Change and adapt… Now! Shopper Opportunities Need to Have Proximity Private Label Cocooning Value-seeking Connected Speed of actions Flexibility of offer Home Entertainment products Home Cooking M-commerce Innovation Price Buzz E-Promo 51 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Thank you! 52 Vietnam Grocery report 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.