Northeastern China’s Urbanization and
Overall Outlook Going Forward
Kelvin Koh,
Brothers Holdings
Been in Northeastern China
for 7 years, since 2007.
Involved in the management
of various real estate projects,
SingaporeCity and Singapore
Garden, in Shenyang and
Dandong, as well as
commercial projects, such as
Singapore Plaza.
Brief Introduction to Northeast China
Brief Introduction to Northeast China
Brief Introduction to Northeast China
Provinces
• Liaoning 辽宁
• Jilin 吉林
• Heilongjiang 黑龙江
Brief Introduction to Northeast China
Brief Introduction to Northeast China
Population
• Liaoning – 43,746,323
• Jilin – 27,462,297
• Heilongjiang – 38,312,224
TOTAL : 121 million
Shenyang (LN) – 8.25 million
Dalian (LN) – 6.69 million
Changchun (JL) – 7.90 million
Harbin (HL) – 9.93 million
Brief Introduction to Northeast China
Ranked 7th in 2014
Provincial GDP Rankings
Brief Introduction to Northeast China
Notable Cities :
• Dalian, LN
• Shenyang, LN
• Changchun, JL
• Harbin, HL
• Daqing, HL
• Jilin, JL
• Anshan, LN
Brief Introduction to Northeast China
Liaoning
Well-established industries:
• automobile parts and manufacturing
• modern construction
• agriculture products and processing
• chemicals
• steel and nonferrous metals processing
Emerging industries:
• advanced equipment manufacturing
• IT
• biopharmaceuticals
• aviation
• new materials
• energy
• environmental technologies
Brief Introduction to Northeast China
Jilin
Well-established industries:
• automobile manufacturing
• railway vehicles manufacturing
• petrochemicals
Emerging industries:
• pharmaceuticals
• tourism
• food-processing
Brief Introduction to Northeast China
Heilongjiang
Well-established industries:
• petrochemicals
• equipment manufacturing
• mining (petroleum, coal, graphite)
• agriculture
• lumbering
Emerging industries:
• dairy production
Urbanization
Urban Percentage of Total Population
120.0%
100.0%
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
1953 1964
13.3%
18.3%
+5%
1982
1990
2000
2010
20.9%
26.4%
36.2%
49.7%
+2.6%
+5.5%
+9.8%
+13.5%
“From 2010 to 2025, it is estimated by the Ministry
of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that 300
million Chinese now living in rural areas will move
into cities.
The fast pace of urbanization will create at least
1 trillion yuan in annual investment opportunities in
building water supply, waste treatment, heating and
other public utilities in the cities.”
Urbanization of Northeast China
Population
• Liaoning – 43,746,323
• Jilin – 27,462,297
• Heilongjiang – 38,312,224
TOTAL : 121 million
60 million people will become
part of the urban population in
NE China over the next 15
years!
Shenyang
Urbanization of Shenyang Outlook
Total Land Size :
13,000 sq km
City Size :
3,495 sq km
(close to 5 times the
size of Singapore)
Urbanization of Shenyang Outlook
2020
Planned Population :
10 million residents
Urbanization : 87%
2030
Planned Population :
12 million residents
Urbanization : 90%
Urbanization of Shenyang Outlook
25000000
300000
250000
20000000
200000
15000000
150000
10000000
100000
5000000
50000
0
0
2005年
2006年
2007年
2008年
供应面积
2009年
成交面积
2010年
供应套数数
2011年
2012年
2013年
2014年
成交套数
Constant demand growth till 2008 (global financial crisis), when demand
dropped drastically. Property supply dropped in 2009, 2010. The
government reacted quickly in 2009 with credit, tax and other stimulus to
recover the market, leading up to the peak of 2013. 2014 sees declining
market due to cooling measures and excessive supply.
Pillars of Shenyang Urbanization
1. Change in Economic Structure
2. Quality of Economy has Improved
3. High Rate of Non-Local Investments
4. Reformation of State-Owned Companies
Pillars of Shenyang Urbanization
1. Change in Economic Structure
Traditionally, Shenyang has always been heavily
vested in heavy industries (equipment manufacturing,
mining, etc.), however recently, Shenyang’s GDP is
increasing dependent on rural, private and tertiary
(services) oriented industries.
Pillars of Shenyang Urbanization
2. Quality of Economy has Improved
High-tech industries output account for about
26.3 billion yuan annually, providing intellectual
technologies to improve traditional businesses,
yielding higher productivity as a result.
Pillars of Shenyang Urbanization
3. High Rate of Non-Local Investments
34% of fixed assets, 66% of technological R&D and
45% of export are associated with non-local
investments.
Pillars of Shenyang Urbanization
4. Reformation of State-Owned Companies
State-owned enterprises have accelerated the pace
of reform and turnaround, opening themselves to
foreign investments and management styles.
Looking Ahead
2015 Onwards
First quarter (Jan – Mar) of 2015 transacted property volume have shown
positive signs of rebound, raising 6.8% in comparison to Q1 2014.
2015 will be a positive year for property, especially in provincial and larger
cities in Northeastern China, however the rebound will take some time
due to large unsold existing inventory.
With reference to 19 Aug 2014 memorandum,
Notable Mentions :
-
-
PPP (Public-Private
Partnership) models
Support for high-tech
industries (Cloud, Internet-ofThings, new technologies)
Support for tourism and
cultural industries
Soil treatment for waste lands
Improve collaboration for Jilin
Food Zone
Easier credit for SME
enterprises
Thank you.