Marketing your hogs at the
ideal weight
2009-10
Grow-Finish
Educational Series
A world of knowledge brought directly to you
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Mike Tokach To start the presentation, advance one slide by pressing
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Extension specialist and swine nutri2onist To see any of the rest of the materials on this CD, click on the
title of the resource below.
Kansas State University KSUmarketingtemplate309.xls
KSUmarketweightpredictor809.xls
mtokach@ksu.edu; 785-­‐532-­‐2032 www.KSUswine.org 2 Key marketing questions
Opportunity cost for individual
pigs marketed to Triumph
§  What is the optimal market weight?
3 $60
•  Influence of market price
•  Influence of feed cost
$50 market
$75 /cwt
market
market
Loss per pig, $
$50
§  How should we top barns?
•  Should topping practices be different in summer
versus winter?
•  How does topping influence growth rate of
$40
$30
$20
$10
remaining pigs in the barn?
•  Does feed price influence topping?
335
>340
325
315
305
295
285
275
265
255
245
235
225
215
205
195
<190
$-
Live wt, lb
4 Opportunity cost for individual
pigs marketed to Tyson
Tyson optimal market weight
5 ($60/cwt carcass; $170/ton last diet cost)
$60
$50 market
market
$75 /cwt
market
$40
$30
$20
$10
Live wt, lb
335
>340
325
315
305
295
285
275
265
255
245
235
225
215
205
195
$<190
Loss per pig, $
$50
www.KSUswine.org
1
Determining the optimal market
weight
6 7 8 9 §  Need DATA
•  Electronically from packer
•  Hand entered into spreadsheet
-  Date,
-  number of pigs,
-  weight,
-  base price ($/cwt carcass),
-  gross value ($/cwt carcass before checkoff and
trucking are removed)
Marke2ng template spreadsheet www.KSUswine.org
10 11 Tyson
Example
Tyson
Example
Base 47.69
Sort - 2.28
Lean + 6.58
51.99
Base 47.69
Sort - 2.28
Lean + 6.58
51.99
2
Base
meat
price,
$/cwt
$ 50.54
$ 50.54
$ 50.62
$ 50.62
$ 51.99
$ 51.99
$ 54.14
$ 54.14
$ 54.63
$ 54.63
$ 53.55
$ 53.85
$ 58.82
$ 58.82
$ 50.84
$ 50.84
$ 50.84
$ 50.90
$ 51.84
$ 51.90
$ 51.90
$ 50.98
$ 54.16
$ 56.59
$ 52.49
$ 57.05
$ 59.85
$ 53.37
$ 55.30
$ 55.30
$ 50.84
$ 50.13
$ 50.13
AVG
(Live
Carcass
weight,
weight, Sort,
lb/pig) Yield, % lb/pig
$/cwt
285
73.8% 210.3
$ 0.01
240
75.0% 179.9
$ (0.68)
292
74.5% 217.7
$ (0.39)
285
74.8% 213.3
$ (0.50)
301
75.2% 226.4
$ (0.80)
297
75.2% 223.4
$ (1.36)
300
75.3% 225.9
$ (1.56)
298
75.5% 225.1
$ (1.91)
270
74.9% 202.3
$ (0.53)
282
75.6% 213.2
$ (0.76)
274
74.5% 204.2
$ (0.67)
256
75.0% 191.9
$ (0.25)
235
74.1% 174.1
$ (0.93)
297
75.7% 224.7
$ (1.35)
277
75.7% 209.7
$ (0.97)
286
75.1% 214.9
$ (0.79)
275
75.5% 207.7
$ (0.89)
262
75.5% 197.9
$ (0.32)
275
74.7% 205.5
$ (0.48)
243
74.1% 179.9
$ (0.56)
250
74.9% 187.3
$ (0.16)
270
75.7% 204.3
$ (0.54)
258
74.8% 192.9
$ (0.07)
236
75.8% 178.9
$ (0.57)
236
73.6% 173.7
$ (1.18)
238
74.7% 177.7
$ (0.96)
240
74.5% 178.8
$ (0.82)
227
74.8% 169.7
$ (0.22)
229
74.5% 170.6
$ (0.37)
224
74.4% 166.7
$ (1.03)
236
75.4% 177.9
$ (0.99)
239
71.5% 170.9
$ (0.97)
239
74.3% 177.6
$ (0.77)
G/pre
(lean
premium
, $/cwt)
$ 6.43
$ 5.25
$ 6.69
$ 6.95
$ 7.73
$ 7.20
$ 7.93
$ 7.71
$ 6.37
$ 6.99
$ 6.63
$ 5.85
$ 4.80
$ 7.90
$ 7.01
$ 7.49
$ 6.75
$ 6.34
$ 6.78
$ 4.87
$ 5.19
$ 6.50
$ 5.59
$ 4.59
$ 4.57
$ 4.94
$ 5.28
$ 4.44
$ 4.82
$ 4.41
$ 5.26
$ 4.88
$ 4.98
Live value, Carcass
$/cwt
value, $/cwt
$ 41.54 $ 56.31
$ 41.30 $ 55.11
$ 41.43 $ 55.58
$ 42.20 $ 56.40
$ 42.29 $ 56.24
$ 42.49 $ 56.49
$ 44.55 $ 59.17
$ 44.25 $ 58.60
$ 45.29 $ 60.46
$ 45.49 $ 60.18
$ 44.35 $ 59.51
$ 44.55 $ 59.45
$ 41.76 $ 63.15
$ 43.67 $ 64.66
$ 43.05 $ 56.87
$ 42.72 $ 56.86
$ 42.81 $ 56.69
$ 42.98 $ 56.92
$ 43.43 $ 58.14
$ 41.62 $ 56.21
$ 42.63 $ 56.92
$ 43.08 $ 56.93
$ 44.61 $ 59.67
$ 45.93 $ 60.61
$ 41.12 $ 55.87
$ 45.55 $ 61.03
$ 43.11 $ 64.83
$ 42.03 $ 56.23
$ 43.49 $ 58.40
$ 42.66 $ 57.32
$ 41.52 $ 55.10
$ 39.11 $ 54.03
$ 40.36 $ 54.33
Netbase,
$/cwt
12 Sort +
Lean
premium
$
5.77 $
6.44
$
4.57 $
4.57
$
4.96 $
6.30
$
5.78 $
6.45
$
4.25 $
6.93
$
4.50 $
5.84
$
5.03 $
6.37
$
4.46 $
5.80
$
5.83 $
5.84
$
5.55 $
6.23
$
5.96 $
5.96
$
5.60 $
5.60
$
4.33 $
3.87
$
5.84 $
6.55
$
6.03 $
6.04
$
6.02 $
6.70
$
5.85 $
5.86
$
6.02 $
6.02
$
6.30 $
6.30
$
4.31 $
4.31
$
5.02 $
5.03
$
5.95 $
5.96
$
5.51 $
5.52
$
4.02 $
4.02
$
3.38 $
3.39
$
3.98 $
3.98
$
4.98 $
4.46
$
2.86 $
4.22
$
3.10 $
4.45
$
2.02 $
3.38
$
4.26 $
4.27
$
3.90 $
3.91
$
4.20 $
4.21
Influence of market weight on premium 13
(gross value - base meat price in $/cwt carcass)
$8
2
y = -0.001794x + 0.947x - 118.66
2
R = 0.88
$6
Premium, $/cwt carcass
Date
2/27/09
2/27/09
3/3/09
3/3/09
3/5/09
3/5/09
3/10/09
3/10/09
3/11/09
3/11/09
3/17/09
3/18/09
3/20/09
3/20/09
3/24/09
3/24/09
3/24/09
3/25/09
4/1/09
4/8/09
4/8/09
4/15/09
4/22/09
4/28/09
5/13/09
5/22/09
6/15/09
7/13/09
7/27/09
7/27/09
8/5/09
8/6/09
8/6/09
Number
of pigs
68
108
164
165
163
164
163
164
180
171
174
175
58
112
168
93
76
175
177
94
108
179
184
185
186
200
185
168
131
44
180
83
101
$4
$2
$0
2
y = -0.004324x + 2.226x - 283.88
-$2
2
R = 0.64
-$4
Tyson
-$6
Farmland
-$8
220
240
Poly.
260
280
(Farmland)
Poly.Live weight, lb
(Tyson)
300
320
Influence of market weight on premium 14 (gross value - base meat price in $/cwt carcass)
Parameters for $/cwt premium (net price-base price) as influenced by weight
Intercept
-118.65782
x
0.94707189
x2
-0.0017943
x3
Carcass Feed cost
base, $/cwt
$/ton
Incremental
$ 50.00 $ 170.00
Market
Base
Premium
Gross
Feed usage
Market Opportunity
Weight, lb
$/pig
Gross-base
$/pig
F/G Feed, lb Weight, lb
on tops
230
$ 86.25 $
7.33 $ 93.58
230
235
$ 88.13 $
8.48 $ 96.61 3.50
17.5
235
$
8.09
240
$ 90.00 $
9.52 $ 99.52 3.54
17.7
240
$
6.55
245
$ 91.88 $
10.42 $ 102.30 3.58
17.9
245
$
5.14
250
$ 93.75 $
11.19 $ 104.94 3.62
18.1
250
$
3.88
255
$ 95.63 $
11.80 $ 107.43 3.67
18.3
255
$
2.79
260
$ 97.50 $
12.26 $ 109.76 3.71
18.5
260
$
1.85
265
$ 99.38 $
12.54 $ 111.92 3.75
18.8
265
$
1.10
270
$ 101.25 $
12.65 $ 113.90 3.79
19.0
270
$
0.53
275
$ 103.13 $
12.57 $ 115.69 3.83
19.2
275
$
0.16
280
$ 105.00 $
12.28 $ 117.28 3.88
19.4
280
$
0.06
285
$ 106.88 $
11.79 $ 118.66 3.92
19.6
285
$
0.34
290
$ 108.75 $
11.08 $ 119.83 3.96
19.8
290
$
0.86
295
$ 110.63 $
10.13 $ 120.76 4.00
20.0
295
$
1.63
300
$ 112.50 $
8.95 $ 121.45 4.04
20.2
300
$
2.66
16 15 Feed efficiency in late finisher (21 trials)
17 corrected for energy level and Paylean level
Opportunity
for avg wt
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
5.43
4.20
3.11
2.16
1.37
0.75
0.31
0.06
0.15
0.52
1.12
1.95
3.03
4.37
3
18 Carcass
base, $/cwt
$ 50.00
Market
Weight, lb
230
235
240
245
250
255
260
265
270
275
280
285
290
295
300
Feed cost
$/ton
$ 170.00
Opportunity Opportunity
on tops
for avg wt
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
8.09
6.55
5.14
3.88
2.79
1.85
1.10
0.53
0.16
0.06
0.34
0.86
1.63
2.66
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
5.43
4.20
3.11
2.16
1.37
0.75
0.31
0.06
0.15
0.52
1.12
1.95
3.03
4.37
Tyson optimal market weight
19 ($60/cwt carcass; $170/ton last diet cost)
$7
Opportunity on tops
$6
Opportunity f or avg wt
$5
$4
g
i
p
/
$$3
$2
$1
$230
240
250
260
270
Weight, lb
280
290
300
www.KSUswine.org
Excel optimal market weight
20 ($60/cwt carcass; $170/ton last diet cost)
($60/cwt carcass; $170/ton last diet cost)
www.KSUswine.org
21 ($60/cwt carcass; $170/ton last diet cost)
www.KSUswine.org
Triumph optimal market weight
Farmland optimal market weight
www.KSUswine.org
22 Tyson optimal market weight
23 ($60/cwt carcass; $170/ton last diet cost)
www.KSUswine.org
4
Tyson optimal market weight
24 Optimal market weight for
loads of pigs
($75/cwt carcass; $170/ton last diet cost)
Processor
25 Farmland
$50/cwt;
$160/ton
258 to 275
$60/cwt;
$170/ton
262 to 280
$75/cwt
$170/ton
270 to 288
Tyson
265 to 285
270 to 290
> 285
Triumph
> 280 (285)
> 280 (300) > 280 (330)
Excel
255 to 275
262 to 280
270 to 285
www.KSUswine.org
26 Marketing strategy
Seasonal Influence on
Market Weight
27 §  Importance of market weight
during summer months
Seasonal Influence on
Market Weight
70 to 80%
of profit in
3 months
28 How to maintain market weight?
29 §  Increase energy density of the diet – Add fat
•  Each 1% fat increases ADG by 1%
•  3% fat increases market weight by ≈ 6 lb
§  Add Paylean during summer months
•  4.5 to 6.75 g/ton ≈ 6 to 7 lb per pig
§  If Paylean and fat are not options
•  Must flex space or find other ways to increase days
on feed or increase ADG to meet needs in summer
months (≈ 7 more days needed to achieve same wt)
5
30 Influence of feed price on optimal
market weight
Impact of pen unloading on feed efficiency
and average daily gain
Pigs/Pen
Pigs Removed
Space/pig (square feet)
Pen Start Weight, lb
Residual Weight, lb
Final Weight (lb)
Removed lb
Removed Ave Weight
Marginal Days on Feed
Marginal ADG, lb
Marginal F/G
Feed cost $/30 lb of gain
Total lb/pen
Marginal $/pen
§  Reduces optimal weight with impact
depending on packer
§  Increases number of pulls or removals
at each pull
24
0
7.25
249
249
278
0
0
20.0
1.45
4.24
12.72
6,672
2,707
24
6
9.67
250
244
280
1,608
268
19.7
1.83
3.76
11.28
6,648
2,748
31 24
12
14.50
250
233
270
3,208
267
20.1
1.84
3.63
10.89
6,444
2,739
Boyd, 2008
Impact of pen unloading on feed efficiency
and average daily gain
Pigs/Pen
Pigs Removed
Space/pig (square feet)
Pen Start Weight, lb
Residual Weight, lb
Final Weight (lb)
Removed lb
Removed Ave Weight
Marginal Days on Feed
Marginal ADG, lb
Marginal F/G
Total lb/pen
Low Rev-HighFeed, $/pen
High Rev-LowFeed, $/pen
25
0
7.2
25
2
7.8
25
4
8.6
241
241
275
0
0
15
2.26
2.81
242
239
277
544
272
15
2.52
2.67
242
237
276
1,068
267
15
2.58
2.52
6,876
2,786
3,885
6,911
2,807
3,912
6,855
2,817
3,906
32 Pigs/Pen
Removed –d 0
Removed – d 10
Space/pig (sq ft)
Start Weight, lb
Before tops - d 0
Tops – d 0
Before tops – d 10
After tops – d 10
Tops - d 10
Wt, d 20
Total pen gain, lb
Total pen feed, lb
Jacela, 2008
Space/pig (sq ft)
Total pen gain, lb
Total pen feed, lb
Total wt marketed, lb
ADG, lb
ADFI, lb
F/G
MOF, $/pen
MOF, $/pig
MOF, $/pig (low feed)
25
0
0
7.2
25
2
0
7.8
25
2
2
8.6
25
2
4
9.5
25
2
6
10.6
234
234
--260
260
--276
1,010
2,910
234
232
264
258
258
--278
1,027
2,780
234
231
270
258
255
283
276
1,012
2,757
234
231
269
259
254
283
275
983
2,703
234
232
265
258
251
281
274
975
2,575
33 Jacela, 2008
Impact of pen unloading on feed efficiency
and average daily gain
Pigs/Pen
Removed –d 0
Removed – d 10
Impact of pen unloading on feed efficiency
and average daily gain
25
0
0
25
2
0
25
2
2
25
2
4
25
2
6
7.2
1,010
7.8
1,027
8.6
1,012
9.5
983
10.6
975
2,703
6,887
2.34
6.44
2.75
3,173
126.93
131.26
2,575
6,884
2.44
6.44
2.64
3,184
127.38
131.49
2,910 2,780 2,757
6,895 6,921 6,886
2.02
2.23
2.30
5.82
6.04
6.27
2.88
2.71
2.73
3,157 3,183 3,167
126.26 127.30 126.70
130.92 131.75 131.11
34 35 Marketing strategy – Barn messages
§  Get the heavy pigs on the first load!
•  Pigs over 340 lb “fall off the cliff” in terms of penalty.
•  Pull pigs from ALL pens when topping
-  Increases growth of other pigs in pen
-  Avoids problems of only pulling pigs near the door
-  Don’t sort by weight when filling barns
Jacela, 2008
6
36 37 Marketing strategy - Management messages
Marketing strategy – Barn messages
§  Minimize age spread within a barn to minimize
variation
§  Get the heavy pigs on the first load!
•  Pigs over 340 lb “fall off the cliff” in terms of penalty.
•  Pull pigs from ALL pens when topping
-  Increases growth of other pigs in pen
-  Avoids problems of only pulling pigs near the door
-  Don’t sort by weight when filling barns
§  Hold lightest pigs for last cleanout load
•  A surprising number of lighter pigs make it onto the
initial load from a barn.
38 Marketing strategy - Management messages
39 Marketing strategy - Management messages
§  Minimize age spread within a barn to minimize
variation
§  Determine optimal weight for your market
§  Minimize age spread within a barn to minimize
variation
§  Determine optimal weight for your market
•  Understand impact of market price and feed cost on
•  Understand impact of market price and feed cost on
optimal weight
optimal weight
§  Top barns aggressively when weight bypasses
optimum
•  Low market price, winter
§  Less topping when weights are below optimum
•  High market price, summer
K-State Web Resources
www.ksuswine.org
40 41 Thank you!
§  DDGS Calculator
•  Feed cost, inclusion level and yield impact
§  Synthetic Amino Acid Calculator
•  Lysine, Methionine, Threonine
§
§
§
§
Fat Analysis Calculator
Feed Budget Calculator
Feeder Adjustment Cards
Particle size Information
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RESEARCH
and
EXTENSION
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7