Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
Management
Harold Hamm, Chairman & CEO
Jack Stark, President & COO
Jeff Hume, Vice Chairman Strategic Growth
John Hart, SVP, CFO & Treasurer
www.clr.com
EPG Commentary by Dan Steffens
Continental Resources (CLR) is one of the “Elite Eight” in our Sweet 16
Growth Portfolio. It is the largest acreage holder in the Bakken Shale / Three
Forks play in North Dakota and Montana.
Their SCOOP play in Oklahoma keeps looking better each quarter and
the STACK play now looks like another billion barrel oilfield for
Continental.
Continental reported production growth in the first two quarters of 2015 that beat my forecast, but the company reported a loss
because their crude oil production is unhedged and their realized oil price dropped to approximately $45.00/bbl from $61.50/bbl
th
in the 4 quarter. Harold Hamm decided to cash out all of their oil hedges in November, 2014 for cash of $433 million, but the
move did expose the company to the big drop in oil prices. CLR has more than enough cash flow from operations and liquidity
to withstand an extended period of low oil prices. My valuation of CLR is lower today than our last profile on the company only
because of the recent drop in oil prices. This is a world class oil company that holds several billion boe of recoverable reserves.
The good news is that even on a much lower capital budget for 2015, CLR expects to increase production by approximately
23% year-over-year. Since it is now unhedged, CLR has more leverage to oil prices than all of the companies that I follow. If oil
prices do increase during the second half of this year (as I am expecting), then CLR has a lot of upside from here.
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
Continental’s growth over the last five years is truly an American success story. The balance sheet is in
good shape with more than enough liquidity to execute their growth plans.
CLR has done a great job in getting their operating expenses and completed well costs down. I expect that trend to continue.
They are also getting much better results in their horizontal wells by using more sand, longer laterals and better spacing of frac
stages. Recent density tests (placing laterals closer together) are promising and should increase the recoverable reserves per
acre in both North Dakota and Oklahoma. The news just keeps getting better on their SCOOP play in Central Oklahoma. For
more on what is happening in Oklahoma (SCOOP and STACK), see our profiles on Cimarex Exploration (XEC), Devon
Energy (DVN), Gastar Exploration (GST), and Newfield Exploration (NFX). Central Oklahoma is rapidly becoming the
“Next Big Thing” in North America.
My Fair Value Estimate for CLR is $47.00/share
Compared to First Call’s Price Target of $47.43
Disclosure: I do have a long position in CLR but I do not intend on buying or selling it in the next 72 hours. I wrote this profile myself, and it expresses my own
opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it from the company. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) is an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company
engaged in the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company’s operations are primarily
focused on exploration and development activities in the Bakken field of North Dakota and Montana and the SCOOP and
STACK plays in Oklahoma.
From my notes taken during CLR’s presentation at the EnerCom Conference:
• The company now has four focus areas: Williston Basin (Bakken / Three Forks), SCOOP, STACK and NW Cana
• NW Cana is smallest of the group, but generating high rates-of-return at current gas prices. Five rigs now drilling wells
in this area that will HBP leasehold with STACK potential.
• All of these plays are in the early innings of development
• SCOOP will move to full field development plan in 2016, after they get results of the density pilots
• In the Bakken, CLR is “coring up” to focus on development of the best acreage. Full field pad drilling will significantly
lower completed well costs. EURs are over 800,000 boe/well.
Second Quarter 2015 Highlights
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Second quarter 2015 EBITDAX totaled $647 million, up from 439.5 million in the first quarter of 2015
Adjusted net income for 2Q15 was $48.5 million, resulting in an adjusted diluted net income per share of $0.13
Second quarter 2015 net production totaled 20.6 million Boe, or 226,547 Boe per day, a sequential increase of 10%
from first quarter 2015 and 35% higher than second quarter 2014
Crude oil sales prices averaged $49.84 per barrel in 2Q15 excluding the effects of derivative positions
Average realized sales price excluding the effects of derivative positions was $37.82 per Boe
The Company reduced estimated average drilling and completion costs for most operated wells by 20% compared to
year-end 2014.
"Continental had a very productive quarter with strong production growth that reflects our best-in-class
inventory. Our teams are performing very efficiently, and consequently we are revising 2015 guidance to
reflect increased production and lower operating costs. While we're not formally changing guidance on
capital expenditures, we are currently trending approximately $150 million under budget for the year. We are
reporting outstanding results for our first STACK well in Oklahoma, the Ludwig 1-22-15XH in Blaine County.
Early production has been strong, flowing 76% oil with a rich natural gas stream, validating our view of
STACK as another large, long-term growth driver for Continental."– Harold Hamm, Chairman and CEO
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
Utilizing Strengths and Flexibility
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Asset Strength
o High-quality, high ROR assets in Bakken and SCOOP
o 2015 drilling program targeting ~40% ROR based on 15% reduced completed well cost at $60 oil and $3
natural gas
Inventory Flexibility
o Deep and diverse inventory provides optionality in oil and liquid-rich plays
o Flexibility to deliver high ROR in changing commodity price environments
Operational Flexibility
o Reducing operated rig count by ~40% (50 rigs at YE14 to average 31 rigs in 2015)
o Reducing non-drilling capex by ~40% (land, seismic, and facilities)
o Deferring a portion of planned Bakken completion activity in 1Q15
Financial Strength
o Ample liquidity with revolver, upsized to $2.5 billion in Feb 2015
o No near-term debt maturities (earliest is $200 million in 2020)
o Investment grade credit rating
Organizational Strength
o Strong track record of execution and leadership in various commodity environments
o Lean, low-cost, high-margin operator
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
Second Quarter 2015 Production
Second quarter 2015 net production totaled 20.6 million Boe, or 226,547 Boe per day, a sequential increase of 10% from first
quarter 2015 and 35% higher than second quarter 2014. Total net production for the second quarter included 149,897 barrels
of oil per day (66% of production) and 459.9 million cubic feet (MMcf) of natural gas per day (34% of production). In second
quarter 2015, sales volumes totaled 20.9 million Boe, marginally higher than production for the first quarter.
Second half 2015 daily production is expected to level off and then decline slightly, reflecting the approximate 50%
reduction in operated rigs since late 2014. Continental expects to exit 2015 with production in the range of 210,000 to
215,000 Boe per day.
The North Region includes the North Dakota Bakken, Montana Bakken and the Red River units. The South region includes
various plays in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province (“SCOOP”), Northwest Cana, and Arkoma areas of Oklahoma. The
growing “STACK” play is north of the SCOOP area. See our profile on Newfield Exploration (NFX) for more on STACK.
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
SCOOP Woodford
In second quarter 2015, total SCOOP net production averaged 62,546 Boe per day, an increase of 25% sequentially over first
quarter 2015 and 83% over second quarter 2014. SCOOP production represented 28% of the Continental's total production in
second quarter 2015. During second quarter 2015, the Company completed 18 net (55 gross) operated and non-operated wells
while operating an average of 12 operated rigs and three completion crews in SCOOP.
SCOOP Woodford 2Q15 net production averaged 53,353 Boe per day, an increase of 29% sequentially over first quarter 2015.
Continental completed 15 net (50 gross) operated and non-operated Woodford wells in the play. Select initial one-day test rates
from first quarter SCOOP Woodford operated wells include:
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The Dungan 1-31-30XH well in Grady County tested at 1,754 Boe per day (50% oil), from 6,031 feet of completed
lateral
The Kellner 1-19H well in Garvin County tested at 16.9 MMcf equivalent (MMcfe) per day, which included 751 Bo per
day (2,816 Boe per day), from 4,971 feet of completed lateral.
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
Sales from the Company's first increased density test (wells drilled closer together) in the SCOOP Woodford oil window
commenced in first quarter 2015. The eight Woodford wells in the Good Martin density test had an average initial one-day test
rate of 820 Boepd per well (approximately 75% oil). On average, these wells were drilled approximately 660 feet apart and
averaged 6,775 feet in lateral length. The nine new wells in the density test flowed at combined peak production rates of 93.3
MMcf and 9,058 Bo per day, or 24,603 Boe per day.
In 2Q15, the Honeycutt wells produced at an average rate comparable to the prior nearby Poteet density test, and the oil
percentage of production in the Honeycutt unit was 37% of total production compared with 12% in the Poteet unit. The
Company has an average working interest of 50% in the Honeycutt unit. The Honeycutt project was the Company's second
dual-level density pilot in the SCOOP Woodford condensate window, consisting of five wells each in the upper and lower halves
of the Woodford, spaced approximately 1,025 feet apart with 125 feet of vertical separation. Average lateral length for the new
wells was 7,369 feet.
"The Honeycutt results are further confirmation of the tremendous resource potential of the SCOOP
Woodford," said Jack Stark, President and Chief Operating Officer.
The “Density Pilots” will help determine the full field development plan.
The 2015 SCOOP Woodford drilling program will focus on a combination of infield development, density and step-out tests as
the Company further defines and expands the play. Approximately 85% of 2015 SCOOP Woodford wells are expected to be
extended laterals to further enhance returns.
SCOOP Springer
In the SCOOP Springer, net production averaged 9,193 Boe per day, an increase of 10% sequentially over first quarter 2015.
The Company completed 3 net (5 gross) operated and non-operated Springer wells in second quarter 2015.
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
Select test rates from recent SCOOP Springer operated wells include:
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The Chester 1-32H well in Grady County tested at 1,733 Boe per day (70% oil) from 4,999 feet of completed lateral; and
The Celesta 1-5-32XH well in Stephens County tested at 1,199 Boe per day (79% oil) from 7,119 feet of completed
lateral. This is the second extended lateral completed by Continental in the Springer.
Sales from the Company's first increased density test in the SCOOP Springer oil window commenced in the first quarter
2015. The four Springer wells in the Hartley unit density test had an average initial one-day test rate of 1,186 Boe per well (72%
oil). Three of the wells were spaced 1,055 feet apart and one well was spaced 2,110 feet from the others to test alternative
spacing. The wells averaged 4,605 feet in lateral length.
The 2015 SCOOP Springer drilling program will focus on a combination of infield development, density and step-out tests as the
Company further defines and expands the play. Approximately 45% of 2015 wells are expected to be extended laterals to
further enhance returns.
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
Bakken Development
Continental's Bakken production averaged 140,988 Boe per day in the second quarter of 2015, an increase of 4% compared
with first quarter 2015 and an increase of 30% compared with second quarter 2014. The Company completed 56 net (159
gross) operated and non-operated Middle Bakken and Three Forks wells during second quarter 2015. In the most recent
quarter, the Company operated an average of 10 rigs and three completion crews in the Bakken.
Continental's 2015 Bakken drilling program is focused on core leasehold in Williams, McKenzie, Mountrail and Dunn counties,
targeting an average estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of approximately 800,000 Boe per well. Overall, this concentration in
the core of the play, combined with a 20% reduction in completed well cost, is expected to increase capital efficiency in terms of
reserves per capital dollar invested by approximately 80% and to reduce finding and development costs per Boe by
approximately 45% compared to full-year 2014.
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
Most wells are being completed using a 30-stage enhanced completion with either slickwater or hybrid completion designs.
Wells in Williams and McKenzie counties completed with these designs continue to deliver an average 90-day production
increase of approximately 40% for hybrid completions and 50% for slickwater completions, compared with offset legacy wells
with previous cross-linked gel completion designs. EUR uplifts have been in a range of 25% to 45%.
The Company estimates it has at least 10 years of drilling inventory, with wells averaging 775,000 Boe per well in EUR, in the
core of the Bakken. This assumes an average of 15 operated drilling rigs per year and no additional improvements in drilling or
completion technologies.
Currently, Continental has 95 gross operated Bakken wells drilled and waiting on first production, compared to 115 at the end of
1Q15, and expects to increase this total to approximately 100 gross operated Bakken wells drilled and waiting on first
production at year-end 2015.
“Boe” = “Barrel of Oil Equivalent” where 6 mcf of natural gas = 1 bbl of oil. This term is used throughout the industry as six mcf
of natural gas has about the same energy content of one barrel of oil.
Second Quarter 2015 Financial Update and Guidance
In second quarter 2015, Continental's average realized sales price excluding the effects of derivative positions was $49.84 per
BO and $2.31 per Mcf, or $37.82 per Boe. Settlements of matured commodity derivative positions generated a $0.31gain per
Mcf of natural gas, resulting in a net gain on matured derivatives of $13.2 million, or $0.63 per Boe, for the second quarter of
2015. Based on realizations without the effect of derivatives, the Company's second quarter 2015 oil differential was $8.18 per
barrel below the NYMEX daily average for the period. The realized natural gas price differential for second quarter 2015 was a
negative $0.33 per Mcf.
Production expense in 2Q15 was $4.39 per Boe of sales, compared with $5.05 per Boe for first quarter 2015. Other select
operating costs and expenses for second quarter 2015 included production taxes of 7.8% on oil and natural gas sales;
depreciation, depletion, amortization and accretion (DD&A) expense of $21.68 per Boe; cash general and administrative (G&A)
expense of $1.34 per Boe; and equity compensation expense of $0.77 per Boe.
Non-acquisition capital expenditures for second quarter 2015 totaled approximately $585.5 million, which was $26.9 million, or
4%, below budget for the quarter. Total capital expenditures for the quarter included $518.3 million in exploration and
development drilling, $22.1 million in leasehold and seismic, and $45.1 million in workovers, recompletions and other. In
addition, acquisition capital expenditures totaled approximately $6.4 million for second quarter 2015.
As of June 30, 2015, Continental's balance sheet included approximately $25.5 million in cash and cash equivalents, and $6.99
billion in long-term debt, including $1.23 billion of borrowings against the Company's credit facility.
"We are very pleased with the updated 2015 guidance and our team's ability to align cash flow in this
challenging market. Second half 2015 capital expenditures are projected to decline sequentially quarter over
quarter, reflecting the slowdown in spending relative to the first half of the year's capital spending rate."
- John Hart, Chief Financial Officer
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
August 27, 2015
As the price of oil moves back to the long-term trend line, CLR will move higher in
share price. This is one of the top oil producers in the United States and it has
several billion barrels of recoverable oil within the leasehold it holds today.
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of
DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making
any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader. Although the information in the newsletters and
company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.
Continental Resources
Net Income and Cash Flow Forecast
August 27, 2015
Our newsletters, company profiles and the information contained herein are strictly the opinion of the publishers (Energy Prospectus Group, a Division of DMS Publishing, LLC) and is intended for informational
purposes only. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. The publishers will not be held liable for any actions taken by the reader.
Although the information in the newsletters and company profiles has been obtained from resources that the publishers believe to reliable, DMS Publishing, LLC dba Energy Prospectus Group does not
guarantee its accuracy. Please note that the publishers may take positions in companies profiled.