ORSAM REVIEW OF ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS No.38, JANUARY 2016 REGIONAL AFFAIRS No.38, JANUARY 2016 Iran-Saudi Arabia Tension Between Conflict of National Interests and Sectarian Polarization Pınar Arıkan Pınar Arıkan graduated from METU International Relations in 2003 and started to work as a research assistant at the same department in 2004. She received her master’s degree in 2006 with her thesis titled “Uneasy Coexistence: Islamism vs. Republicanism Debate in the Islamic Republic of Iran”, and her PhD degree in 2015 with her dissertation titled “Discursive Continuity of Political Nationalism as a Form of Opposition Politics in Modern Iran”. She was as a visiting researcher at the University of Tehran, the Faculty of Law and Political Science in 2010-2011, at the Columbia University in New York in 2012-2013. Her research interests include the state-society relations in Iran, Iranian domestic politics, political system and groups, Iranian foreign policy and the international relations of the Middle East. The chain of events that has started with the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr on 2 January 2016 by Saudi Arabia led Iran to cut its diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and made a tremendous impact on world public opinion as ‘Iran-Saudi Arabia tension’. Together with the involvement of Bahrain, Sudan, Djibouti, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar in the Saudi protest against Iran, the ‘Iran-Saudi Arabia tension’ has been interpreted by many others as the escalation of the Sunni-Shi’ite conflict in the Middle East. The questions about the sources of the tension, whether it were the conflict of national interests or the sectarian polarization, and the possibility that the sectarian polarization, which had appeared within the context of civil wars and conflicts in the region, might be deepened by the current tension were the mostly discussed ones. In this policy brief, it is asserted that Iran and Saudi Arabia are in a state of geopolitical and ideological rivalry, but this rivalry cannot be interpreted as the polarization of sectarian differences. Iran-Saudi Arabia Tension Between Conflict of National Interests and Sectarian Polarization T he chain of events that has started with the execution of Shi’ite scholar Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr’s death sentence by Saudi Arabia on 2 January 2016 together with 46 people and continued with setting the Saudi Arabia’s Consulate in Mashhad and Embassy in Tehran on fire by the demonstrators in protest of the execution that led Saudi Arabia to cut its diplomatic relations with Iran created a tremendous impact on world public opinion as ‘Iran-Saudi Arabia tension.’ The reasons of this tension between the two regional powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia, who are considerably different from each other regarding the regional politics of the Middle East both in terms their existence and interests, have been the most mentioned and discussed issue of the past few days. The most frequently asked question to understand the reasons beneath the tension between the two states was whether it was rooted in conflict of interests or in polarizations of sectarian differences. In this vein, another question asked rather anxiously for the 2 future was whether the tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran after the execution of al-Nimr would deepen the regional sectarian polarization, which had appeared within the context of civil wars and conflicts in the region. This short essay tries to answer these questions following a brief discussion of the course of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia until today. Iran and Saudi Arabia are certainly two rival states of the Middle East region. Beyond current conjuncture, there are two definitive factors in the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. These are geopolitical and ideological factors. Geopolitical rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been an issue since Great Britain’s proclamation of withdrawal decision from Persian Gulf in 1968. After 1971 when the British army had withdrawn from the Gulf region, Iran assumed role of ‘Gulf ’s police’ and both Iran and Saudi Arabia became the two pillars of the US twin pillar policy as guarantors of the US interests in the region. However, when the Arab states placed ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS No.38, JANUARY 2016 an embargo on oil sales to the USA and other countries that supported Israel in 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Iran under the leadership of Muhammad Reza Shah did not give support to this use of oil as a weapon in world politics for the first time. On the one hand, Iran was in controversy with Saudi Arabia because it continued oil sales to USA and Israel, on the other hand, it was having disputes over sharing the Shatt al-Arab waterway with Iraq that was the other big power of the Persian Gulf. In this period, Iran and Saudi Arabia engaged in rivalry to become the indispensible partner of the USA in Gulf security. The Islamic Revolution of Iran in 1979 added the ideological dimension to the geopolitical rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Geopolitical Factors in IranSaudi Arabia Rivalry after 1979 The geopolitical rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia on the hegemony of the Persian Gulf during the period of Pahlavi monarchy continued after the 1979 revolution. However, the geopolitical rivalry that had been balanced with the ‘twin pillars’ policy of the USA before 1979 lost this balance as a result of the revisionist ideology of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which declared the imperialisms of both USA and Soviet Russia as enemies. The regional threat caused by Islamic Revolution’s revisionist attitude also targeted the secular and nationalist Middle East monarchies. Arab autocratic monarchies that began to perceive threat from revolutionary Iranian administration supported Iraq in its eight-year war with Iran, which started with the attack by Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s rule to Iran in revolutionary turmoil in 1980. In 1981, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and United Arab Emirates established Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a regional political and security alliance against Iranian threat. Gulf states perceived a great threat from a possible Iranian hegemony over the Gulf region both due to the Gulf ’s oil reserves and being the transfer route for their domestic oil to Beyond current conjuncture, there are two definitive factors in the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. These are geopolitical and ideological factors. 3 Iran-Saudi Arabia Tension Between Conflict of National Interests and Sectarian Polarization international markets. In the tanker wars that had started when Iraq bombed Iran’s oil export terminal and oil tankers in Hark Island in 1984 and continued with Iran’s bombing Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti tankers, these two states got drawn directly into the war. With the end of Iran-Iraq war in 1988, stability based on the balance of power between the three great powers of the Gulf, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, was restored. Following the restoration of balance of power in the Gulf region, the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia gave its place to rapprochement in 1989. Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was elected as president of Iran, stepped back from the 4 policy of export of revolution and set the reconstruction of the war-ruined Iranian infrastructure and economy as the primary goal. To realize this goal, Rafsanjani asserted that Iran should stop making enemies. During the presidency of Rafsanjani, Iranian state shifted from ‘aggressive revolutionary’ foreign policy to a moderate stance that can be named ‘pragmatic coexistence.’ In 1997, when President Muhammad Khatami formed the first reformist government of Iran, Iranian foreign policy left its revolutionary rhetoric to a great extent, and Iran endorsed a reconciliatory approach that aimed at establishing good relations with regional states and the world ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS No.38, JANUARY 2016 powers. In this period, when realist perspective based on national interest became the principle in Iranian foreign policy decision-making instead of ideology, rapprochement between Iran-Saudi Arabia relations was also set in motion. The Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah visited Iran in December 1997 when Tehran hosted the Islamic Conference Summit for the first time, and Iranian President Khatami paid an official visit to Saudi Arabia in 1999. These two visits had been the first official visits of the two states to each other since 1979. The moderate relations between the two states were clinched by signing a security agreement on terrorism and drug trafficking in 2001. The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the collapse of Saddam Hussein government thwarted the moderation in Iran-Saudi Arabia relations. The collapse of Saddam government, which had been a source of threat for Iran, changed the balance of power in the Gulf in favor of Iran. Although Saudi Arabia was disturbed by the increasing Iranian influence in Iraq after the restoration of order, the moderation in bilateral relations did not come to a halt, and Iranian President Ahmadinejad and Saudi King Abdullah met as the representatives of ‘fellow nations’ in Saudi Arabia in 2007. The end of moderation and friendship messages between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the course of events until current tension was brought about with the Arab uprisings that had started in Tunis in December 2010, and subsequently affected many Arab states, mainly Egypt, Libya, and Syria. The first visible incident of the crisis between Iran and Saudi Arabia was the protests in Bahrain where the Shi’ite majority revolted against the rule of the Sunni kingdom in February 2011. To suppress the protests, Saudi Arabia sent 1,000 troops to Bahrain within the ‘Peninsula Shield Forces’ that had been formed by the GCC’s decision on 14 March, and Saudi officials accused Iran of provoking the protests. The Iran-Saudi crisis deepened when the US officials revealed an assassi- The collapse of Saddam government, which had been a source of threat for Iran, changed the balance of power in the Gulf in favor of Iran. Although Saudi Arabia was disturbed by the increasing Iranian influence in Iraq after the restoration of order, the moderation in bilateral relations did not come to a halt. 5 Iran-Saudi Arabia Tension Between Conflict of National Interests and Sectarian Polarization nation attempt against Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the US, Adel al-Jubeir, on October 11, 2011. The Saudi Arabian administration did not considered the revolts in the eastern part of its territory populated by the Shi’ites within the context of Arab revolts on the basis of rights but perceived as an Iranian incitement. The arrest of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr was also happened during these protests. Syrian uprisings that had started in March 2011 turned into a sectarian civil war by December 2012, and the conflict in Yemen that had started in March 2015 confirmed once again that Iran and Saudi Arabia were in different sides. Thereafter, a proxy war between Iran and 6 Saudi Arabia has openly begun to be mentioned. In the last crisis, setting the Saudi diplomatic legations in Mashhad and Tehran on fire and the harsh response by the Iranian religious leader against Saudi Arabia were interpreted as ‘sectarian conflict’ because of the Shi’ite identity of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. Saudi Arabia demanded Iranian diplomatic mission to leave the country and cut its diplomatic relations with Iran. Then, Bahrain, Sudan, and Djibouti also cut their diplomatic relations with Iran, United Arab Emirates downgraded its relations to the level of chargé d’affaires, and Kuwait and Qatar withdrew their ambassadors from Iran. It is evident that ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS No.38, JANUARY 2016 the alliance formed against Iran after the execution crisis is not all that different from the alliance that was formed as a security cooperation against the Iranian threat after 1979 and that constituted the foundations of GCC. While Sudan and Djibouti, who regarded their strategic interests lie in siding with Saudi Arabia, were involved in this alliance, Oman did not want to choose between Iran and Saudi Arabia and opted for remaining outside. After all, considering the loci of two current deep crises, Syria and Yemen, the actors involve in them are multifarious. These crises, which are being fed by the insecurity environment created by ISIS that appeared in Iraq and expanded gradually, are issues of civil war that are more complex than to be downgraded to a war between two sectarian poles led by Iran and Saudi Arabia, and that the involvement of international actors are highly influential. That the groups involved in these civil wars belong to different sects did not indicate IranSaudi Arabia tension occurred solely by sectarian incentives. Although Iran and Saudi Arabia represent two different identities in the Islamic world regarding their official sects, the driving force of the tension between the two countries after the Arab uprisings is the geopolitical interests of the two states, as also indicated by the blocs formed after the execution crisis. Ideological Factors in IranSaudi Arabia Rivalry After 1979 The basis of the ideological rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is that both countries present their type of Islamic governments as an exemplary model for the Islamic world. This understanding is shaped within the confines of nation-state system of the modern age. To attribute the current ideological rivalry to the debate whether the caliphateship after the Prophet Mohammad was the right of Ali or not through a retrospective reading of today is an approach that disregards the modern historical, political and social realities. As a matter of fact, neither Iran was regarded to be the representative Although Iran and Saudi Arabia represent two different identities in the Islamic world regarding their official sects, the driving force of the tension between the two countries after the Arab uprisings is the geopolitical interests of the two states, as also indicated by the blocs formed after the execution crisis. 7 Iran-Saudi Arabia Tension Between Conflict of National Interests and Sectarian Polarization of all the Shiites of the world nor Saudi Arabia was regarded to be the representative of all the Sunnis. However, the nation-state dress that the two states cut out for themselves takes understanding of the sect as a reference point; hence, constitute a basis for definition of their national interests on the sectarian grounds. The elements of the rivalry between Iranian and Saudi Arabian state ideologies will be mentioned below. The Islamic Republic, which was established in 1979 by terminating the Pahlavi monarchy that had been the closest ally of the US government in the region, aimed at presenting a free and independent Islamic government as an 8 exemplary model for all the Islamic countries. Although Islamic Republic of Iran is a theocratic republic whose official sect is Ithna ‘Ashariyya, it has developed a holistic rather than sectarian approach to religion. Accordingly, there is one Islamic world and Iran has been a part of it. The constitution of the Iran portrays the aim of the revolutionary government to form a model of Islamic democracy that will be an example for the Islamic world. The Islamic societies, which will take Islamic Republic of Iran as a model, will terminate the un-Islamic governments in their countries. This ideal, which was referred as ‘export of revolution,’ was one of the aims of the ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS No.38, JANUARY 2016 Islamic Republic in the first ten years after the revolution. According to this ideal, the un-Islamic governments were the autocratic monarchies. The ideology of the Islamic Republic, which came into existence by terminating the Pahlavi monarchy, portrays monarchies as governments that disregard both religious authority and popular sovereignty. Thus, the secular nationalist monarchies of the Middle East have been the most threatened governments by the Islamic Republic’s discourse of the ‘export of revolution.’ This is also visible in the regional alliances against Iran after the revolution. Gradually, Iranian foreign policy shifted from the ground of revolutionary rhetoric to rational decision-making, and ‘export of revolution’ has ceased to be an actual threat for the regional states. However, the distrust on the part of regional states towards Iran remained. Especially when the politically empowered Shi’ites in Iraq engaged in cooperation with Iran, the Gulf monarchies and mainly Saudi Arabia were disturbed. The balances in the Middle East that has been shaken by the Arab uprisings and especially the crisis in Syria and Yemen gradually led the disturbed relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia to turn into a separation and polarization. Saudi Arabia is a religious state whose official religion is Islam and who accepted Qur’an and Sunna of the Prophet as its constitution, and a hereditary monarchy. Just like Islamic Republic of Iran, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia claims according to its Fundamental Law to portray a ‘supreme model of politics’ and aims to be an example for other Islamic countries. Although there has been a widespread view that Saudi Arabia represents Sunni Islam, the Saudi royal family has strong connections with Wahhabism, which was formed by Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab in the 18th century. Wahhabism is a religious doctrine related to Salafism, which is based on the principle that Islam should be exercised in the same way that the first three generations had exercised. Thus, Wahhabi belief to which Saudi Arabia The power bloc formed after the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr by the states that cut their diplomatic relations with Iran is almost the same as the power bloc that formed by the Arab states for Gulf security alliance after 1979 against the Iranian discourse of export of revolution. 9 Iran-Saudi Arabia Tension Between Conflict of National Interests and Sectarian Polarization adheres cannot be regarded exactly as Sunni Islam. Although laws and regulations of Saudi state are based on Wahhabi principles, unlike the actual involvement of Shiite clergy in Iranian government, Wahhabi clergy does not participate directly in the state administration. However, the Council of Senior Ulama involves in politics as the supreme religious body of the kingdom with the responsibility to advice the king and to approve state policies. In 2009, King Abdullah enabled the non-Wahhabi scholars to become members of the council for the first time, and in 2010 the authority to give a fatwa was restricted to this council and a few other scholars outside the council. After 1979 revolution, Iran challenged the model presented by Saudi Arabia to the Islamic world. Revolutionary ideology, which directly targeted the monarchies that engage in cooperation with USA, constituted a threat to the legitimacy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In fact, Saudi kings, who were carrying the title of ‘His Majesty’ until 1986, began to use the title 10 of ‘Protector of the Two Holy Cities’ in order to strengthen their religious legitimacy vis-àvis Iran. The ideological rivalry between the two states since the revolution has been evident in the incidents during the haj. In 1981, as a result of the chaos happened when Iranian pilgrims were shouting revolutionary political slogans and the Saudi police intervened, Iran accused Saudi Arabia with discrimination. In 1987, when a great number of Iranian pilgrims died in the clashes with the Saudi police, Saudi Embassy in Tehran was attacked. Saudi Arabia cut its diplomatic relations with Iran after the incident and it did not accept Iranian pilgrims to the country until 1991. In the stampede of 2015, where a great number of Iranian pilgrims lost their lives, Iranian officials held the Saudi authorities responsible for the losses and this incident strained the tension occurred between the two states since the Arab uprisings. Conclusion The term ‘Shi’i Crescent,’ which has been accepted as ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS No.38, JANUARY 2016 the dominant paradigm since it was first uttered by the Jordanian King Abdullah, divides the Middle East into Shi’ite and Sunni groups under two different identity frameworks. This understanding assumes that societies adhering to Shi’ite and Sunni sects are located in two different political sides due to their sectarian identities, and the societies in different political sides are pursuing the same interests in themselves. This assumption lies underneath the current discourse of polarization in the Middle East that regards Iran and Saudi Arabia as two states in conflict due to their different sectarian identities. The homogenous Shi’ite and Sunni identities that is defined by this approach, which makes sectarian factor the definitive factor of the foreign policy making, does not reflect the reality. In reality, the traditions of belief, languages, and ethnic identities of the societies that are assumed to be under the sectarian identity definitions are not homogenous. On the other hand, this approach re-interprets the history by reducing the certain alliances of the Middle East’s nation states established through rational decisions to sectarianism, and it defines a static point of divergence rooted in history for the Islamic states. The history of conflict and alliance relations between the nations of the modern Middle East disproves this reductionist and static approach. The relations and identities of the two states in modern era demonstrate the reality of geopolitical and ideological rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, to attribute the basis of this rivalry to Sunni and Shi’ite identities is a flawed approach. The current phenomenon named as sectarian polarization is another indicator of geopolitical and ideological rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In fact, the power bloc formed after the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr by the states that cut their diplomatic relations with Iran is almost the same as the power bloc that formed by the Arab states for Gulf security alliance after 1979 against the Iranian discourse of export of revolution. The Arab monarchies that perceived threat in Another point that has become evident in the last crisis is Saudi Arabia’s concerns regarding the end of Iran’s alienation and isolation in the international system after the nuclear deal. 11 Iran-Saudi Arabia Tension Between Conflict of National Interests and Sectarian Polarization the past from the hostile attitude of Iran towards monarchies struggle for the preservation of their authorities today against actual or potential influence of Iran on the Shi’ite minorities in their countries. Arab kingdoms, which accuse Iran with interference in their internal affairs, criticize Iran on the basis of the most fundamental principle of the nation-state order, that is, non-interference in internal affairs of sovereign states and respect for territorial integrity. The Arab uprisings, which brought into view the public space where Shi’ite minorities in the Arab states express the discrimination for the exercise of their political and human rights by the state authorities, paved the way for this attitude against Iran. Although extensive Iranian presence in any state apart from Syria has been an unverified claim, the ongoing chaos in the region creates a favorable environment for the two states with different geopolitical and ideological interests, Iran and Saudi Arabia, to accuse each other. As a matter of fact, Iran also accuses Saudi Arabia with giv- 12 ing support to Salafi and takfiri groups since the beginning of Arab uprisings. Another point that has become evident in the last crisis is Saudi Arabia’s concerns regarding the end of Iran’s alienation and isolation in the international system after the nuclear deal. This will clearly bring the result of Iran’s acceptance to international platforms as one of the actors sitting around the table, and will increase Iranian strategic power. Saudi Arabia, together with its allies, wants to alienate Iran in the region. The incidents after the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr created an opportunity for Saudi Arabia in this regard. In conclusion, Iran-Saudi Arabia tension does not stem from the different sectarian basis of their governments, but from different geopolitical and ideological interests of the two states. In the presence of the threat posed by ISIS terrorist organization in the region, which constitutes a security threat not only for Iran and Saudi Arabia but also for other regional states and ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS No.38, JANUARY 2016 challenges both Iran and Saudi Arabia with its newly created so-called Islamic state ideology and system, it is not a realistic possibility that the tension between the two states will turn into a regional sectarian polarization. Yet, it also seems unlikely that the two states will cast aside their differences in fighting against this common threat. Iran and Saudi Arabia, together with their regional alliances, will continue their efforts to fight against this threat through their own methods, and to restore regional peace in line with their own interests. ORSAM is an independent think-tank specializing on Middle Eastern affairs. 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