PREFACE This book is a summary of a study of “pre-feasibility study Bandung Monorail Corridors 1 and 2”. The book is structured as information and guiding to implement investment projects as outlined in the materials based on the results of studies that have been done previously. Basically, this book discusses some of the following: Introduction, contains the background, purpose of Monorail Bandung, role function and monoral Bandung general guideline of coorperation goverment with agency in providing infrastructure. Technical aspects of the monorail, contains about the types of technology, facilities and infrastructure needs of the monorail, typical of monorail cross-section track and monorail illustrations line. Development Monorail Track, contains trace election considerations, justification allignment, land use and loading profile each corridor. Estimated Potential Users, contains the potential scenarios and user demand monorail and estimate travel needs. Feasibility analysis, results analysis estimated the costs and economic benefits, the net cash flow and economic analysis and financial feasibility. Institutional, contains a spectrum of coorperation goverment-private, some examples cases of monorail and some alternative coorporation. We hope this book can be useful and the best use. Bandung, July 2014 Head of Bandung Department of Transportation TTD E.M. RICKY GUSTIADI, ATD, SE, MT Pembina Tingkat I NIP. 19660824 198903 1 003 i TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ................................................................................................... i TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................... ii INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 1 BACKGROUND ..................................................................................... 2 OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................... 3 ROLE FUNCTION .................................................................................. 4 GENERAL GUIDELINES OF PPP ON INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT ...... 5 MONORAIL TECHNICAL ASPECTS ............................................................ 6 THE TYPES OF TECHNOLOGY ................................................................. 7 MONORAIL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS ........................... 8 CROSS SECTION TYPICAL OF MONORAIL ............................................. 9 MONORAIL ILLUSTRATION ................................................................... 10 MONORAIL DEVELOPMENT .................................................................... 11 CONSIDERATIONS of DEVELOPMENT ................................................... 12 BANDUNG METROPOLITAN MAIN CORRIDOR ..................................... 13 BANDUNG CITY TRANSPORTASION SYSTEM ........................................ 14 CROSS-SECTIONAL TYPICAL ROADS ................................................... 15 SELECTED ROUTE OF MONORAIL CORRIDOR 1 AND CORRIDOR 2 ....... 16 SELECTED ROUTE JUSTIFICATION - CORRIDOR 1 .................................. 17 SELECTED ROUTE JUSTIFICATION - CORRIDOR 2 .................................. 18 BANDUNG SPACE DEVELOPMENT PLAN ............................................... 19 CORRIDOR 1 PROFILE .......................................................................... 20 CORRIDOR 2 PROFILE .......................................................................... 21 ii POTENTIAL USERS ESTIMATION ............................................................. POTENTIAL DEMAND SCENARIO ON MONORAIL ................................. POTENTIAL USERS MONORAIL ............................................................. TRAVEL NEEDS ESTIMATION (Trip / day) ................................................ 22 23 24 25 FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS ............................................................................ COST NEEDS ESTIMATION ................................................................... ECONOMIC BENEFITS ESTIMATION ...................................................... NET CASH FLOW .................................................................................. ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY EVALUATION .................................................. 26 27 28 29 30 INSTITUTIONAL ..................................................................................... SINGAPORE MRT: SUCCESSFUL CASES ................................................. JAKARTA MRT FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY EVALUATION .............................. ANNUAL NET CASH FLOW -1 .............................................................. ANNUAL NET CASH FLOW -2 .............................................................. 31 32 33 35 36 iii INTRODUCTION 01 INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND Bandung city as the center of activities Especially trade, services, education, industry and tourist destination Increased economic growth and population Sustainable infrastructure development to support socio-economic activities of society The necessity of an efficient urban transport system Mass transit systems, particularly rail-based mass transportation Technology of mass transportation MRT, LRT, Monorail, H-Bahn & Aeromovel 02 INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVES Bandung city LRT was built to address the congestion growing. LRT also serves to provide the best services to the users of public transportation the city of Bandung. 03 ROLE FUNCTION as a backbone Bandung city public transport As a Feeder of Bandung city public transport As Land Mark Architecture of Bandung city 04 INTRODUCTION GENERAL GUIDELINES OF PPP (PUBLIC RRIVATE PARTNERSHIP) ON INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT Planning of Project Cooperation Cooperation Project Priority List (potential, prospective and ready to be offered) Preparation of Project Cooperation Preparation of pre-feasibility study Initial Assessment - Legal and institutional Basic Design - Project Feasibility - Environmental and social - Forms of Cooperation - Support / Warranty government Transaction of Project Cooperation Implementation Management and Cooperation Agreement - End of the study prefeasibility study and a draft procurement plans Enterprises - Public auction Enterprises - Planning and Implementation Management Cooperation Agreement Implementation - Performed on Period: Preconstruction, construction, operation, and termination of the Agreement Period Preparation readiness assessment (institutional, tread, resettlement plan, obtaining environmental permits, licenses, government support) 1-2 years 05 1-2 years (or more) - highly dependent licensing process that involves multistakeholder 1-2 years (or more) - depending on investor interest in procurement related business entities Takes place during the life of the agreement (30 years or more) MONORAIL TECHNICAL ASPECTS 06 MONORAIL TECHNICAL ASPECTS THE TYPES OF TECHNOLOGY H-BAHN AEROMOVEL MONORAIL 07 MONORAIL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS Guideway Pylon Switch Infrastructure Bridge Station MONORAIL SYSTEM Integration System Monorail Facility Electric Depot CTC Signal/ATO Communication SCADA Operation system Ticketing Security System 08 MONORAIL TECHNICAL ASPECTS CROSS SECTION TYPICAL OF MONORAIL CL CL Kabel Sinyal Kabel Power Supply Kabel Sinyal Kabel Power Supply Precast Box Girder Potongan Melintang Mono Rail (Stasiun) Reinforced Concrete Reinforced Concrete Bar Ground Level Bar Ground Level Pilecap Pilecap Pile Pile Potongan Melintang Mono Rail (Jalur) Monorail Design Criteria: Plans Speed = 60 km / h The radius of the Sun. = 50 m Flatness max. = 7% Elevated monorail line with a planned height of free space of at least ± 5 m above the road surface and ± 6.8 m above the road surface rail. 09 MONORAIL ILLUSTRATION Monorail on Commercial District Integration with other modes Monorail in Downtown Area Monorail on the greenfield area 10 MONORAIL DEVELOPMENT 11 MONORAIL DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERATIONS of DEVELOPMENT Bandung Transportation Network Systems Monorail Role Function Land usage along the track Technical characteristics of the track Topography condition Geological and Geotechnical Conditions Availability of Space Environmental Impact 12 MONORAIL DEVELOPMENT BANDUNG METROPOLITAN MAIN CORRIDOR PADALARANG JATINANGOR SOUTH CIMAHI SOREANG 13 DAYEUHKOLOT + MAJALAYA Cih a nju an g BANDUNG CITY TRANSPORTASION SYSTEM Cimahi Bandung Giri Gahana Golf dan Country Club Arcamanik Raya Golf dan Country Club Cileunyi Margaasih Jl. M Rancaekek oh a Toh Bandung Indah Golf dan Country Club Bojongsoang Jl. G ede Bag e Legenda Route of DAMRI Route of Existing and plan Trans Metro Bandung Route of Angkot Bandung Route of Cable Car Planned Source: Masterplan Transportasi Kota Bandung, BAPPEDA Pemerintah Kota Bandung, 2009 - be treated 14 MONORAIL DEVELOPMENT CROSS-SECTION TYPICAL OF ROADS St. Juanda St. Dipatiukur 15 SELECTED ROUTE OF MONORAIL CORRIDOR 1 AND CORRIDOR 2 START OF CORRIDOR 2 STA: 0+000 START OF CORRIDOR 1 STA: 0+000 ALT. 2 CORRIDOR 1 Jl. Ir. H. Juanda Jl. Sukajadi Jl. Cipaganti Jl. Dr. Djunjunan ikutr a Jl. Ph. Jl. Surapati Hasan Jl. Bandara Husein Sastranegara Jl. C Pu n Pe ta ur Jl. BKR Jl. Bu ah Jl. Terusan Jakarta Jl. AH Na sut ion Jl. Kiaracondong Jl. Laswi Jl. Asia Afrika gk Jl. Arcamanik Raya Golf dan Country Club n ma Jl. Rajawali Tim ur Jl. a rat iau Jl. Jendral Sud irman Mustap up .S Wr Jl. R Jl. Soekarno Hatta Ba tu Jl. Soekarno Hatta ALT. 2 CORRIDOR 2 END OF CORRIDOR 1 STA: 10+147 ALT. 3 CORRIDOR 2 END OF CORRIDOR 2 STA: 20+046 ALT. 3 CORRIDOR 1 16 MONORAIL DEVELOPMENT JUSTIFICATION - CORRIDOR 1 Selected route passed the citizien demand more : Settlement area: Region Cibeunying, Region Tegallega. Commercial area: BIP, BEC, Dago Factory Outlets, Hotel along Jalan Ir. H. Juanda. Office area: Bank along Ir. H. Juanda, City Hall in Jalan Merdeka, Jalan Asia Afrika. Education Area: UNPAD, ITB, Unikom, Unpas. Another consideration refers to: Availability of road, ease of implementation, connectivity with network transport services to / from outside of the area of Bandung. 17 JUSTIFICATION - CORRIDOR 2 Selected trace calculated passed the bag demand more: Settlement area: Region Gedebage, Regional Bojonagara, and South Cimahi. Commercial areas: Gedebage Market, Jalan Riau Factory Outlets, BIP, BEC, Istana Plaza. Office Area: Offices at Jalan Riau, City Hall in Jalan Merdeka, Office at Jalan Padjadjaran. Another consideration refers to: Availability of road, ease of implementation, connectivity with network transport services to / from outside of the area of Bandung. 18 MONORAIL DEVELOPMENT LAND-USE PLAN ALONG THE CORRIDOR Government areas Commercial areas Industrial areas Settelment areas Free Space 19 STATION IN CORRIDOR 1 2 4 Jl. Layang Pasupati 5 gus Ism ail 3 Jl. Surapati Jl. 6 Jl. Pajajaran o Ko p Jl. Pu n gk 13 ur ete ran tan 10 11 Jl. Karapi Jl. Asia Afrika 12Jl Jl. BKR a Toh Jl. Jl. V oh. Jl. M 15 Jl. Otto Iskandardinata Jl. K o po Jl. Jamika 14 Pe ta a aw Jl. 9 8 dirman Jl. Pasir Koja mb Jl. Jendral Su u Su ur Ria Jl. Jl. Rajawali Tim 7 No Station Urban Village Sub-district 1 Babakan Siliwangi Lebak Siliwangi Coblong 2 Simpang Dago Lebak Siliwangi Coblong 3 UNPAD Lebak Gede Coblong 4 Panatayuda Lebak Gede Coblong 5 Dukomsel Citarum Bandung Wetan Jl. Tuba Jl. Ir. H. Juanda Institut Teknologi Bandung Jl. Cihampelas Jl. Pasirkaliki Jl. Cipaganti Jl. Sukajadi 1 .B ua h Ba tu 6 BIP Citarum Bandung Wetan 7 Balaikota Babakan Ciamis Sumur Bandung 8 Braga Braga Sumur Bandung 9 Tamblong Kebon Pisang Sumur Bandung 10 Asia Afrika Balong Gede Regol 11 UNPAS Cikawao Lengkong 12 Karapitan Paledang Lengkong 13 Tegal Lega Ciateul Regol 14 Immanuel Situsaeur Bojongloa Kaler 15 Leuwipanjang Situsaeur Bojongloa Kaler Jl. Soekarno Hatta Source : Hasil Analisis 2013 20 MONORAIL DEVELOPMENT STATION IN CORRIDOR 2 Jl. Pu n Jl. an dY Ko Jl. Jl. Bu ah 14 15 16 pa Jl. Terusa n Jakart ur Jl. BKR Musta Arcamanik Raya Golf dan Country Club i gk po Pe ta Jl. Otto Iskandardinata Jl. K o po Jl. Jamika Jl. Pasir Koja Jl. Asia Afrika d. Jen ma Ah 13 Jl. AH Na sut ion n irman ete ran a Hasan ma Jl. V Jl. Jendral Sud Jl. 12 wa ba Jl. Melong Raya ur J 11Riau m Su 7 Jl. Rajawali Tim Jl. Jl. Jl. Pajajaran rat up .S Wr 10 3 ol l. T ikutr Jl. Ph. Jl. Surapati Jl. Bandara Husein Sastranegara 2 Jl. C 9 a Jl. Kiaracondong 8 Jl. Layang Pasupati Jl. Laswi 6 5 gus Ism ail Jl. Ir. H. Juanda Jl. Pasirkaliki 4 Jl. Cihampelas Jl. Dr. Djunjunan Jl. Cipaganti Jl. Sukajadi 1 Jl. Tuba Institut Teknologi Bandung Jl. Soekarno Hatta Ba tu Jl. Soekarno Hatta No Station Urban Village Sub-district No Station Urban Village Sub-district 1 Kebon Kopi Campaka Andir 9 Banda Citarum Bandung Wetan 2 Bundaran Rajawali Garuda Andir 10 Citarum Citarum Bandung Wetan 3 Elang Dungus Cariang Andir 11 Taman Pramuka Cihapit Bandung Wetan 4 Bandara Husein Satranegara Cicendo 12 Stadion Persib Samoja Batununggal 5 Ciroyom Arjuna Cicendo 13 Jakarta Kebon Waru Batununggal 6 Istana Plasa Pamoyanan Cicendo 14 Purwakarta Cicaheum Kiaracondong 7 Kebon Kawung Pasirkaliki Cicendo 15 Setra Dago Antapani Cicadas 8 Purnawarman Babakan Ciamis Sumur Bandung 16 Antapani Antapani Cicadas Source : Hasil Analisis 2013 21 LOADING PROFILE KORIDOR 1(ORANG/HARI) POTENTIAL USERS ESTIMATION 22 20 POTENTIAL USERS ESTIMATION POTENTIAL DEMAND SCENARIO ON MONORAIL Scenario 1 (S1) - The condition of transportation without revamping Scenario 2 (S2) - The condition of the transportation network restructuring public transport services Both scenarios were analyzed for the following rates: Corridor 1 (ATL 3.70 km) - K1: Rate IDR 6000, Corridor 2 (ATL 8,30 km): K2A: Rate IDR 7.500,K2B: Rate IDR 12.500,- 23 POTENTIAL USERS MONORAIL USERS 180.000 K1-S2 160.000 K2A-S2 140.000 120.000 K2A-S1 K2B-S2 100.000 80.000 K2B-S1 K1-S1 60.000 40.000 20.000 2057 2055 2053 2051 2049 2047 2045 2043 2041 2039 2037 2035 2033 2031 2029 2027 2025 2023 2021 2019 - Potential monorail passengers in the first year of operation (2019): Corridor1 – Rate IDR 6.000,Scenario 1 (K1-S1): 9.975 users/day Scenario 2 (K1-S2): 32.418 users/day Corridor 2 – Rate IDR 7.500,Scenario 1 (K2A-S1): 15.784 users/day Scenario 2 (K2A-S2): 50.508 users/day Corridor 3 – Rate IDR 12.500,Scenario 1 (K2A-S1): 10.661 users/day Scenario 2 (K2A-S2): 33.581 users/day Source : Hasil Analisis 2013 24 POTENTIAL USERS ESTIMATION TRAVEL NEEDS ESTIMATION (Trip / day) Trip 35 K1-S2 30 K2A-S2 25 20 K2A-S1 K2B-S2 15 K2B-S1 K1-S1 10 5 Source : Hasil Analisis 2013 25 2057 2055 2053 2051 2049 2047 2045 2043 2041 2039 2037 2035 2033 2031 2029 2027 2025 2023 2021 2019 - LOADING PROFILE KORIDOR 1(ORANG/HARI) FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS 26 20 FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS COST NEEDS ESTIMATION The cost of infrastructure investment : Corridor 1 (10,147 Km) No Job Description 1 Technical Design and Supervision 2 Preparation for Construction Track Work 3 Construction work on monorail 4 Construction of End Station 5 Construction of in-between Station 6 Construction of Big Station 7 Construction of Depo 8 Signal and Telecommunication 9 Land Acquisition GRAND TOTAL TAX 10% TOTAL AFTER TAX BE SHORTED Price (IDR) 15,948,133,595 97,994,555,826 979,945,558,264 88,067,002,785 100,876,748,645 154,117,254,874 550,000,000,000 83,263,348,088 1,837,397,922 2,072,050,000,000 207,205,000,000 2,279,255,000,000 2,279,255,000,000 Cost of Infrastructure Investment : Corridor 2 (20,046 Km) No Job Description 1 Technical Design and Supervision 2 Preparation for Construction Track Work 3 Construction work on monorail 4 Construction of End Station 5 Construction in-between Stasion 6 Construction Big Station 7 Construction of Depo 8 Signal and Telecommunication 9 Land Acquisition GRAND TOTAL TAX 10% TOTAL AFTER TAX BE SHORTED Price (IDR) 31,559,775,751 199,306,937,428 1,993,069,374,275 89,382,595,878 110,915,675,794 469,258,628,361 550,000,000,000 110,915,675,794 2,491,336,718 3,556,900,000,000 355,690,000,000 3,912,590,000,000 3,912,590,000,000 Procurement Cost facilities No Cost items 1 Train Set Source : Hasil Analisis 2013 27 Unit Paket Unit Price(IDR) 23,000,000,000 ECONOMIC BENEFITS ESTIMATION Operating Costs Vehicle 7000 6000 5000 4000 y = 0,7368x2 - 112,7x = 6013,7 R2 = 0,869 3000 2000 1000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0 100 110 120 130 Source : Hasil Analisis 2013 Cost of Air Pollution Type of emission Nox HC CO2 Large of Cost of Pollution (IDR/kg) Pollution 10 10 250 63.700 31.850 364 Cost of Pollution (IDR/km) 637 318,5 91 Source : KK Transportasi, Fakultas Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan, ITB, 2007 Value Time Travel Travel time value of Rp 1,858, -/person/hour. (Source : Kajian penentuan Tarif Jalan Tol, BPJT,2012 28 FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS NET CASH FLOW Example Calculation: Scenario 2, corridor 2 for rate IDR 12,500, - x 1000.000 Rp 500.000 250.000 0 -250.000 Revenue Infrastructure management O&M facilities Infrastructure Investation Facilities Investation NetCast Flow Source : Hasil Analisis, 2013 29 2058 2056 2054 2052 2050 2048 2046 2044 2042 2040 2038 2036 2034 2032 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 -500.000 ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY EVALUATION Corridor 1 - Scenario 1 Corridor 1 - Scenario 2 Discount Rate Discount Rate Indicators of Economic Feasibility 15% 20% 25% Indicators of Economic Feasibility 25% 30% 35% NPV (billion IDR) 686.60 -292.85 -811.06 NPV (billion IDR) 540.98 -54.61 -444.59 BCR 1.292 0.873 0.644 BCR 1.235 0.976 0.803 EIRR 18.51% EIRR Corridor 2A - Scenario 1 29.54% Corridor 2A - Scenario 2 Discount Rate Discount Rate Indicators of Economic Feasibility 20% 25% 30% Indicators of Economic Feasibility 30% 35% 40% NPV (billion IDR) 904.61 -158.15 -800.43 NPV (billion IDR) 212.15 -392.13 -814.98 BCR 1.279 0.951 0.747 BCR 1.066 0.878 0.744 EIRR 24.26% EIRR Corridor 2B - Scenario 1 31.76% Corridor 2B - Scenario 2 Discount Rate Discount Rate Indicators of Economic Feasibility 25% 30% 35% Indicators of Economic Feasibility 35% 40% 45% NPV (billion IDR) 317.13 -430.75 -920.99 NPV (billion IDR) 100.49 -395.75 -760.36 BCR 1.100 0.863 0.706 BCR 1.032 0.874 0.757 EIRR 27.12% EIRR 36.01% Source : Hasil Analisis, 2013 30 INSTITUTIONAL 31 INSTITUTIONAL SINGAPORE MRT: SUCCESSFUL CASES US$ 210 million US$ 125 million US$ 134 million US$ 54 million subsidy US$ 2 million US$ 3 million Income Operating Borrowing Rent net cash Cost Cost Infrastructure flow MRT Singapura (SMRT). Began operating in 1987 with 51 stations (16 underground), the length of 89.4 km with 346 million passengers in 1999 and 391 million people in 2004. Ownership of assets : Infrastructure owned (and built) by the Government and SMRT paying rent to the government for the use of the infrastructure. Facilities owned by SMRT. Government sets: Subsidies so that cash flow SMRT is at the right level. Infrastructure rental costs as a function of the operating profit. Source : SAPROF 2005 32 INSTITUTIONAL JAKARTA MRT FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY EVALUATION Sensitivity to Various Risk FIRR value Increased Cost of Construction Risk During Construction Backward schedule (late) Risk Construction Quality Risk of MRT Project Income Risk Non-KA Income risk Passenger Volume Risk Risks During Operation and Maintenance Risk Operations and Maintenance Costs Source : Special Assistance For Project Formation (SAPROF) For Jakarta Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) System, 2005 33 Risk of Operating Costs Risk Maintenance Costs Assumptions FIRR Value (%) Increased by 10% of the total cost of construction 1.46 Delayed 1 year (1 year without earnings) 1.00 1.30 5 years for faster rehabilitation 1.44 Income ratio non-KA 10% (previously 15%) 0.92 Passenger volume is reduced 10% Operating expenses increased by 10% Maintenance costs increased 10% 0.44 1.16 1.30 34 INSTITUTIONAL ANNUAL NET CASH FLOW -1 Bandung Monorail Corridor 2 (the Restructuring Network (average cost IDR Rp 12.500,-; average trip length 8,3 km) Cost means investment Facility 3 O&M Facility 4 1 Revenue Maintenance of Infrastructure 2 5 Revenue monorail operations Infrastructure investment 6 Infrastructure Costs Government Expense Remarks: 1. Infrastructure maintenance costs IDR 465.91 Billion 2. The cost of infrastructure investment IDR 27.44 Billion 3. The cost of investment in facilities IDR 29.50 Billion 4. O&M facility IDR 17.41 Billion 5. Revenue IDR 316.54 Billion 6. Government Expense IDR 223.7 Billion Assumptions: 1. Capital investment cost comes from the Government (so it does not take into account the interest on the loan) 2. Revenue only calculated from the operating monorail 35 ANNUAL NET CASH FLOW-2 Corridor 3 (Rate IDR 12.500) Corridor 2 (Rate IDR 7.500) Corridor 1 (Rate IDR 6.000) Infrastructure maintenance costs 465.91 465.91 271.41 The cost of infrastructure investment 27.44 27.44 15.99 The cost of investment in facilities 29.50 39.31 24.56 O&M facility 17.41 25.80 8.26 Revenue 316.54 285.66 146.68 Government Expense 223.54 272.81 173.54 information : Unit in billions of rupiah For comparison, Budget Bandung IDR 4.29 trillion in 2013 36 NOTE :