QUARTERLY BY LEONTEQ 2 15 THE MAGAZINE FOR INVESTMENTS, TRENDS AND TECHNOLOGIES BUSINESS TRAVEL 48 HOURS IN MONACO FUTURE MARVELLOUS PROSPECTS FOR THE PHARMA INDUSTRY INTERVIEW DIETRICH MATESCHITZ TAKES THE BULL BY THE HORNS MADE TO MEASURE HOW MONTBLANC IS CAUSING A SENSATION IN THE WATCHMAKING INDUSTRY FOCUS ON CRUDE OIL 2 EDITORIAL Dear clients In this second Quarterly following the relaunch, we’re delighted to feature another remarkable entrepreneur, Dietrich Mateschitz, the founder of the successful soft drink company Red Bull. Mateschitz’s clever marketing ideas helped Red Bull shoot to global prominence as a brand in the space of just a few short years. Despite the wellknown slogan ‘Red Bull Gives You Wings’, Mateschitz himself still has his feet firmly on the ground, as his attitude to luxury clearly demonstrates. Our second interview focuses on another ambitious entrepreneur, Montblanc CEO Jérôme Lambert, who is now seeking to cause a sensation in the watchmaking industry. Speaking of wings, for our report on the ever more popular fun sport of kitesurfing we turn to former windsurfing pro Alexander Lehmann. Just a few years ago, kitesurfing was seen as a super-dangerous activity for lovers of extreme sport. Today, there are much more sophisticated systems in place, ensuring greater safety for thousands of fans around the world, with no loss of fun. Thank you for all your positive feedback about our magazine. The link between water and oil is sometimes closer than we think, as our main article on crude oil reveals. The price of oil has dropped dramatically in recent months. While production capacity in the USA is gradually being scaled back, OPEC has not yet decided on a reduction. The tumbling prices of crude oil have hit oil and gas stocks hard. A megadeal here could herald a further consolidation. Finally, we turn our attention to exploring the extraction method known as fracking, which has caused a real explosion of production in certain countries. This issue’s ‘Future’ article takes a look at the pharmaceutical industry. Increasing wealth – especially in Asia – will lead to greater spending on health and higher sales for pharmaceutical companies. I hope this latest issue brings you some exciting new insights. Jan Schoch CEO | Leonteq Securities AG CONTENTS 3 Contents LOCATION AT A GLANCE The oil market. Page 4 The best tips for a weekend in Monaco. NEWS What’s new at Leonteq this quarter. Page 6 PORTRAIT Turbo-charged: Dieter Mateschitz. Page 8 SPORT Easy to learn and high on adrenaline. Kite surfing! Page 14 SPECIAL REPORT: CRUDE OIL INTERVIEW ‘Chief Bull’ Dieter Mateschitz in a rare interview. 8 38 BLACK GOLD ANTICS The price of crude oil has decreased enormously. Page 18 IN HOT OIL The sharp fall 18 in prices has hit the oil and gas sector hard. Page 24 A COUNTRY INTOXICATED BY OIL The USA is back. Page 28 34 FUTURE Pharma – an endless market that keeps growing. Page 30 MADE TO MEASURE Montblanc – The traditional watchmaker and its ambitious goals. MADE TO MEASURE Montblanc – Hamburgbased traditional watchmaker wants more. Page 34 LOCATION Monaco has more to offer than its casino. Page 38 BATTLEZONE CRUDE OIL All in black. GIMMICKS BBQ o’clock! Page 42 Publishing information Published by Leonteq Securities AG Brandschenkestrasse 90, P.O. Box 1686 8027 Zurich, Switzerland Publication: 3 times per year Print run: 3,000 DE / 2,000 EN Concept + realisation Leonteq & Axel Springer Schweiz AG Corporate Media, www.axelspringer.ch Editor-in-Chief Manuel Dürr manuel.duerr@leonteq.com Translation Amelia Sassano Marketing Director Sandra Frank Dudler sandra.frank@leonteq.com Authors Wolfgang Hagl Christian Ingerl Alexander Lehmann Oliver Klaffke Hubert Patterer Mark C. Schneider Christoph Wöhrle Photo credits Title: Getty Images / Gerard Rancinan; Contents: Getty Images / Mark Thompson; Portrait: Getty Images / Gerard Rancinan (p. 9); Getty Images / Mark Thompson (p. 13); Oil: Royal Dutch Shell (p. 25), BP (p. 25); Montblanc: Simone Scardovelli (p. 36, 37); Illustration: Felice Bruno (p.40). All other photos are from iStock. Subscriptions Leonteq Securities AG sandra.frank@leonteq.com Tel. +41 58 800 1091 Fax +41 58 800 1010 Printing Staffel Medien AG, Zurich www.staffelmedien.ch Reproduction, in whole or in part, of articles and images is permitted only with the prior written approval of Leonteq Securities AG. No liability is assumed for unsolicited deliveries. Legal notice This publication is for informational purposes only and is not research; it does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell financial products, and/or an invitation to provide an offer. The information herein is provided without any guarantee or warranty with regard to accuracy, completeness or reliability. It is explicitly recommended that investors obtain comprehensive and personal advice from a financial expert before investing in any financial products. This publication is no substitute for such consultation. © Leonteq Securities AG 2015. All rights reserved. In keeping with the principle of sustainability, this publication was printed on paper certified carbon-neutral, thus contributing to sustainable forestry worldwide. Only green energy was used in the production of this publication, and a hybrid vehicle was used to deliver it. 4 AT A GLANCE The oil market North America Much of the oil trade takes place directly between suppliers and buyers, without the involvement of the stock market. Prices are based on international oil market prices. The market price is determined by supply and demand. Crude oil reserves Barrels (percentage worldwide) Other variables, such as economic growth, limited resources, production volumes and financial market factors, as well as events such as natural disasters, wars, and political crises, can bring pressure to bear on the price. FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL Annual production Barrels (percentage worldwide) 233 bn (14%) 18.7 m (21%) 23.3 m (24%) 13.95 tn Annual consumption Barrels (percentage worldwide) Market value of reserves held, Average as at May 2015 USD 60 per barrel Logistics & Infrastructure Low stocks, complex transport routes and lack of freight capacity make oil more expensive. Taxes Currency fluctuations High taxes are often intended to make the economy less dependent on fossil fuels. Fluctuations in the US dollar rate of exchange influence the price of the commodity and vice versa. Central & South America 330 bn (19%) 7.6 m (9.3%) 7.1 m (7.8%) 19.81 tn Politics Global demand When demand increases due to favourable market conditions but production volumes do not, the price rises. 159 litres Warm winters, easing of tensions in crisis areas which have oil production facilities and a slowdown in the economy lead to a drop in price. OPEC The OPEC member states cooperate closely to determine production volumes, thereby impairing the influence of free market forces on pricing. 1 km 60 km Aeroplane Ship 1 barrel (bbl) = QUARTERLY 2 | 15 DISTANCES TRAVELLED ON ONE BARREL OF CRUDE OIL = 5 PRODUCTION VOLUMES AND REVENUES Europe, Russia & Central Asia 155 bn (9.1%) 17.2 m (20%) 18.3 m (20%) 9.29 tn Africa 129 bn (7.6%) 8.3 m (9.3%) 3.8 m (4.3%) 7.75 tn Near East 811 bn (48%) 19 m (21%) 23 m (24%) 13.95 tn Asia Pacific 43 bn (2.5%) 8.3 m (9.4%) 31 m (34%) 2.56 tn Global 1 700 000 000 000 000 barrels 88 700 000 barrels 92 100 000 barrels USD 13 950 000 000 000 100 km 1 000 km 1 800 km Heavy goods vehicle Passenger vehicle Motorcycle 6 NEWS LOCAL Manuel Dürr (centre) talking with Martin Raab (left) and Daniel Manser (right) as he receives the prize in the Best Precious Metal Product category SWISS DERIVATIVE AWARDS 2015 Winner of five awards The award ceremony for the Swiss Derivative Awards, which took place in the AURA event centre in Zurich on 26 March 2015, marked the Award’s tenth anniversary. The independent expert jury presided over by Professor Marc Oliver Rieger honoured Leonteq Securities AG with an impressive total of five awards, a first in the history of the Swiss Derivative Awards. It was particularly gratifying for Leonteq that it received the coveted Top Service award for the fifth consecutive year. We appreciate the recognition that these awards confer on our work and would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your vote and your support. Top Service special prize This award is given to the issuers with the QUARTERLY 2 | 15 best investment service. Best Market Maker Investment Products category By market making, an issuer ensures that it has quoted fixed bid and offer prices for a particular security in sufficient volumes to ensure that market liquidity is guaranteed. It is the fourth time in a row that Leonteq has received this prestigious award for best investment product market maker. Best Precious Metals Product category For its inverse barrier reverse convertibles on gold, which is the only product on the Swiss market with which the investor can profit from sideways or downwards movement in gold prices. Best Product in Alternative Underlyings category For the tracker certificate on Zurich Insurance 2017 Dividend Future securities. This is the first product on the Swiss market to offer investors access to share dividend futures. Special Award: Public Constructor The jury recognised the fact that the Public Constructor raised transparency in the pricing of a structured product to a new level. The Public Constructor has been publicly available on the Leonteq website, www.leonteq.com, since last year. 7 GLOBAL INNOVATIVE PLATFORM for structured products in Asia Pacific We have signed a letter of intent on the integration of a multi-issuer system for the distribution of investment products (IPDS) with Avaloq, DBS and Numerix. The cooperation is aimed at enhancing development with regard to the supply and distribution of structured investment products. Under this initiative IPDS will be connected to the Avaloq Banking Suite, with DBS serving as the pilot bank. The first phase will focus on the Asia Pacific region. Avaloq, DBS, Leonteq and Numerix have jointly agreed to develop the IPDS for the following purposes: 1. To provide access to DBS structured investment products, and in the future, extend the platform to include selected product issuers and other products and instruments. 2. To provide a web-based, multi-user solution to be developed by Numerix which enables real-time, analytics-based product structuring and pricing, and a straightforward trade and order management workflow. 3. To provide access to designated automated services on Leonteq’s integrated technology and services platform. 4. To provide connectivity to the Avaloq Banking Suite, thus enabling straight through processing (STP) of transactions in these products. The cooperation complements the business strategies of the four partners well in terms of their existing product and service offerings, both in Asia and internationally, and will create revenue and cost synergies from the pooling of infrastructure, information technology and other support services. Investors in structured investment products will benefit from the enhanced functionality and quality. Says Jan Schoch, Leonteq CEO, “The cooperation between the four partners is a significant step towards developing a highly innovative investment platform. This platform is unique in that we are pursuing a buy-side approach in order to improve the quality of service from the client’s perspective. It is an honour for Leonteq to work with such reputable partners and to take advantage of their combined expertise to create this investment solution.” 8 PORTRAIT THE HIGH FLYER DIDI MATESCHITZ Self-made billionaire Dietrich Mateschitz (70) used creative marketing ideas to make Red Bull a globally successful brand. He reveals here why he thinks wealth tax is fair and that politics on its own is not a true profession, and where he’ll be spending his retirement. “I find true luxury in nature and good friends” W ith an estimated wealth of around USD 10.8 billion, Dietrich ‘Didi’ Mateschitz (70) from Sankt Marein im Mürztal is the richest Austrian. The former Blendax manager acquired his wealth from the caffeinated energy drink Red Bull, which was introduced to the market in 1987. Mateschitz owns 49 per cent of the company, while the Thai entrepreneurial family Yoovidhya owns the other 51 per cent. As soon as his cash flow would allow, Mateschitz subsidised a number of trendy extreme sports. This lent weight to his reputation as a marketing genius, a reputation he enjoys to this day. Not everything is going to plan at the moment, though. Mateschitz’s most important promotional vehicle, his Formula 1 team, is lagging behind the others. What’s more, Coca-Cola has now invested in a rival energy drinks company Monster. Mateschitz graduated from the Vienna University of Economics and Business. His passion is for aircraft, for which he had Hangar 7 designed by architect Volkmar Burgstaller and built in his adopted city, Salzburg. With a donation of EUR 70 million, the entrepreneur is also supporting research into finding a cure for spinal paralysis. 9 We are totally transparent Interview: © Kleine Zeitung Graz 10 PORTRAIT Mr Mateschitz, advertising of the Red Bull brand goes hand in hand with extreme sport and pushes the limit, exploiting danger and risk. Do you understand critics who regard this as an ethically questionable concept? All the extreme sports people, base jumpers and motocross racers were involved in these activities long before we sponsored them. And when we hold events, we’re usually not the ones who come up with the idea; more often than not, it’s the athletes themselves who come to us. Then we try to minimise the risk, carry out tests and prepare meticulously for months before. But there is always some element of risk. Someone plays football, has a heart attack and drops dead. Did anyone ever call Bernie Ecclestone to account when there was a fatal accident in the 1970s or 80s? Athletes have a passion for taking risks. I’d like to see politicians who have a profession. Felix Baumgartner’s jump from the stratosphere could have ended up as a live worldwide transmission of a tragedy. No, it wouldn’t have. We had safety measures in place which we did not speak about publicly. In the worstcase scenario, Felix would perhaps have fainted, but he would still have come down fine. In the United States your company was sued because a consumer allegedly died as a result of excessive consumption of Red Bull. How are you dealing with this? This happens five times a year, and is understandably annoying. You have to understand the American justice system, and the lawyers who hand out their business cards and say that they will represent you for free, but will get 30% or more of the proceeds of the lawsuit. We have clinical and toxicological studies metres high proving how harmless it is; the allegations are absurd. And if the French want to introduce a tax on energy drinks, they’re doing it not in the interests of public health, but because it’s one way of filling the empty State coffers with 80 million euros. Double moral standards, lies and deception are at Red Bull spends EUR 1 billion a year on global marketing 11 JUMP FROM THE STRATOSPHERE On 14 October 2012, Felix Baumgartner rose in a pressure capsule with the aid of a helium balloon from Walker Air Force Base in Roswell, New Mexico, USA, to the stratosphere so that he could make a jump with nothing but a protective suit and a parachute. After the jump, he had achieved: - the highest jump ever made by a parachutist, at 38,969.4 m, - the longest free-fall, lasting 36,402.6 m, and - at 1,357.6 km/h, the fastest speed in free-fall without a stabiliser parachute. 12 PORTRAIT play here. Coca-Cola has a similar problem; with them, the issue is sugar. McDonald’s are dealing with consumers suing for being overweight; at Walmart, it’s freshly washed floors. I could go on and on listing similar cases. I agree with Viktor Frankl, who says that the quintessential human right is that of responsibility. Responsibility needs to be contextualised. Because the State defines our responsibilities so precisely, no room is left for individuals to exercise responsibility on their own initiative. In education, teachers or the system are always to blame; it is never the fault of the parents or the children themselves. Everything is regulated down to the last detail. If I stopped going to the office tomorrow, nobody would notice. The law stipulates that a signpost on a mountain must be powdercoated yellow and that sheep and cows in Alpine pasture must be branded with this, that and the other colour; so much so that you can hardly see their ears. I believe in individuality, not conformity. I am amazed how much people actually accept. That they put up with what the NSA does, what the United States does, what the EU is doing. Someday, there will be an uprising. Did you ever want to be a politician? No, I would be completely useless. It has to do with the political culture. I don’t think it is right that it’s primarily concerned with the preservation of power of one’s party, that people want to convince through defamation of and discrimination against other parties and not by their own performance. I would never take it up myself. I don’t think it’s a good thing for someone to be a career politician. What can you learn from it? What kind of profession is it? Mateschitz in numbers 116 His ranking in Forbes World’s Billionaires list 2015, with an estimated net worth of USD 10.8 bn. 5.6 billion cans of Red Bull energy drink were purchased in 2014; 200 million more than in 2013. 1 son (22) from a two-year relationship; Mateschitz is unmarried. 7 Mateschitz´s great passion is aeroplanes, some of which he exhibits at Hangar-7 in Salzburg. A responsible and time-consuming one. That one is good at rhetoric? That one can lie well? How to be opportunistic? That’s not a profession. I would like to see politicians who have a profession – politicians who are farmers, lawyers, financiers, scientists, professors, entrepreneurs, journalists, business people. And if they fail at politics, i.e. don’t perform well, then they can go back to the firm or to the farm. Then at least dependence on political parties would be done away with. And why must one belong to a political party at all? A country misses out on some of its best minds because this is exactly what they don’t want. In essence, it is quite simple – in politics and everywhere else. It’s about competence and character – nothing else. Your product faces global competition. How competitive is Austria? Austria could exploit its potential better. This applies to science as well as technology, research and business. There are many brands in Austria which also have the potential to succeed internationally. Why not all succeed, why perhaps not all have even tried, I cannot say. Maybe some of them do not have enough self-confidence, lack the joy of challenge, courage; many are perhaps too comfortable, complacent. But maybe it’s just not possible for them to finance such a step. Austria has plans to tax wealth more heavily. As one of the more glamorous people affected, would you advocate this? Yes, wealth tax is certainly fair and legitimate. Even though, of course, we’re already paying an arm and a leg in taxes right now. Where does Red Bull pay its taxes? Our entire global revenue is taxed in Austria. I have made it quite well known that we are totally transparent. We do not have a procurement company in Hong Kong; we don’t have the brand registered in the Cayman Islands. We pay every cent of tax due, without any fancy corporate structures, and that is as it should be. In exceptional times, however, such as the ones we operate in, it is the duty of the individ- 13 DIETER MATESCHITZ LIVES IN MARIA ALM on an Alpine farm at the foot of the Steinernes Meer. His mother (99) lives with him, in a guest house next to the farmstead. ual, if financially able, to make additional contributions. One could get the wealthy large companies to voluntarily make a oneoff contribution or, for that matter, spread it over two or three years – and perhaps more would come of it than one could ever imagine now. Would you do this? Yes, if it were necessary. The only problem is that in total, it will not help much. If you save five euro per month for every employed person, the total is many times higher than if you take away the so-called millionaire’s millions. As far as we are concerned, we do a lot anyway. And if, in total, it is more than what is feasible, then we have to make savings on other things, be they in sport, research, in the social sphere or elsewhere. I would, however, like to point something out: I think that the amount of tax revenue Austria receives, as one of the highest taxed countries in the world, is more than sufficient. The key lies in distributing it properly. But again: I believe a wealth tax to be totally in order. occasionally, a good meal out. I would also include here a decent pair of skis and a sensible mountain bike. How much tax does the company pay? I don’t know exactly. If you add up all the VAT, corporate tax, payroll tax, municipal taxes, and all the other taxes, then that’s a few hundred million a year. You are now seventy years old. What lies ahead for you? I continually remind myself that it is time for me to retire. People around me assure me that this would not be a particularly good idea. I have reduced my work schedule to a three-day week, and I only manage to stick to it about half the time. I tell my four-member executive board that they must gradually get used to making decisions without me because at some point I will only be a woodcutter. • Switzerland would be nicer. I joked once that if I went to Switzerland, I could buy an enormous villa at Lake Lugano every three months, and give the whole thing away four times a year, and it would still be cheaper than paying taxes in Austria. What’s your definition of luxury? The intensity of unspoiled nature, a small circle of friends who are good-humoured and like to philosophize. Satisfying work. Family. Time, sovereignty over it and, 14 SPORT KITESURFING HIGH ABOVE THE WAVES Easy to learn and high on adrenaline. Watersports legend Alexander Lehmann explains what makes kitesurfing so fascinating. QUARTERLY 2 | 15 15 J ust a few moments ago the beach was bathed in sunshine. But suddenly, the sky above the sea turns dark. The seagulls are not the only ones to be silenced by the dull rumbling sound in the distance. The light north-westerly sea breeze whips up a serious storm in minutes. I taste the salt on my lips, while flurries of sand chase over the dunes, carrying off their first sun umbrellas along with them. The bathers hastily flee the beach, quickly gathering up their towels and picnic utensils as they go. Meanwhile, I calmly pull on my wetsuit with a mounting sense of anticipation. I strap on my kite and grab the board, knowing that an action-packed session lies ahead of me in the waters of the Baltic. Pure adrenaline Soaring silently over the water, lifted several metres upwards by the wind and surfing the waves, without having to paddle even once. Kitesurfing, also known as ‘kiteboarding’ is one of the most action-packed water sports around. This is where the human fascinating for outwitting gravity with lightness becomes a reality. Being driven by the power of a kite you can steer has opened up a new avenue for fun sports fans. Apparently weightless, they are catapulted upwards to heights of up to 20 m, taking full advantage of the way the kite carries them along. Flight times of 10 seconds and more are not uncommon. From cruising on flat water to surfing the waves, there are more options here than in almost any other watersport. Seen from the outside, it all appears incredibly acrobatic – but it’s easy to learn. Whether you’re old or young, an athlete or a sports fanatic, you make progress much faster than in windsurfing or classic surfing, because there’s significantly less physical effort required. Nevertheless, kitesurfing gives almost all your body’s muscles a total workout and fully caters to your fitness needs. You’re in or you’re out – lying on the water or gliding over it. In kitesurfing there are no compromises. Which is why it has become so popular so quickly. In windsurfing it often takes long and tortuous years before you can step into your foot straps and hook on your trapeze and glide over the water, but you can experience your first successes in EQUIPMENT Don’t buy anything until you have done a course. Avoid professional equipment if you’re still a beginner. Rookies need a kite that remains stable in the air, performs neutrally and will be your friend. The safety system is extremely important. It must provide minimal traction in the first instance and then allow you to completely abandon the kite using a quick disconnect option on the safety leash. 16 SPORT BAG OF TRICKS The popular back roll manoeuvre step by step kiteboarding after just a few hours, because unlike windsurfing, the mother of all fun sports, the lack of volume of the board means you aren’t carried so far and so you can plane from nought to sixty with the kite turned in the right direction. This amazing feeling is what makes all fun sports fascinating. Whether snowboarding in deep snow, wind surfing, surfing, wakeboarding or indeed kitesurfing, the feeling of weightless gliding is what electrifies people and keeps them hooked. And with kitesurfing you get that feeling in no time at all. Alternatively you just lie in the water. Huge interest While kitesurfing was seen just a few years ago as an extremely dangerous sport, the days of underdeveloped systems, materials cobbled together by amateurs and ‘learning by doing’ are long gone. It was not so long ago, at the turn of the millennium, that a few bold individuals could be seen out on the water, drawn along by a huge kites attached to a wind surfer or surfboard. At the time they were regarded as weird, as nobody had a real handle on these strange goings-on. Today those same weirdoes, such as Flash Austin or Robby Naish, are synonymous with the birth of a sport that has captivated thousands of watersports enthusiasts around the world. From young guns to sporting seniors, kitesurfing has devotees from all ages and all walks of life. One of the reasons for this rapid development is certainly that kitesurfing combines the fascination of a whole range of sports. It continues to draw inspiration from windsurfing, surfing, paragliding, wakeboarding and skating. The barriers to entry are relatively low, and compared to windsurfing, the cost of materials is certainly manageable. When folded away, the kite is about as heavy as a rucksack and your complete kit can easily be transported in a sports car. And there is the almost limitless freedom in the choice of spots. Naturally, kitesurfing also has its rules. Bathing areas, shipping lanes, nature reserves and designated exclusion zones must be avoided. But apart from that, virtually any’puddle’, that has enough wind can be a kite spot, which means that the sport can be enjoyed inland too. A decade ago, kitesurfing was still a single-track pursuit and was often scorned by devotees of established sports. Fans stood on their boards, pulled along by their kites, hopping occasionally above the surface of the water. And that was it. But due to rapid developments, which show no sign of letting up, there are now several ways to kitesurf QUARTERLY 2 | 15 Kiting is an either-or game: either you lie in the water or you glide out on the water. The innovative influence of existing board sports like wakeboarding has produced a number of multifaceted offshoots in just a few years. Under the umbrella term ‘reestyle’, the disciplines of ‘old school’, ‘new school’ and ‘wake style’ have all developed, and have been joined by those of ‘kite race’ ‘speed’ and ‘wave’ alongside the high jumps. Whether kiting on obstacles such as kickers and sliders (from the world of wakeboarding and snowboarding), waveboarding with or without hoops, or the relative newcomer wakeskating, in which the rider stands on something resembling a skateboard, there’s no end to the ideas. With a quarter of a million visitors, the Kitesurf World Cup held for the last 10 years at St. Peter-Ording on Germany’s North Sea coast has become the biggest and most far reaching kiting event in the world and illustrates the huge interest the sport now attracts. The numbers of practitioners are rising year on year. 17 Highly addictive high flying! Once you’ve been bitten by the bug, the call of the wind never leaves you – addiction guaranteed! Some years back, the addiction also took hold of self-made billionaire Richard Branson, who in late 2014 bought up the Professional Kiteboard Riders Association (PKRA) on the spot, and took the sport to the next level, under the new name of the ‘Virgin Kitesurf World Championships’. Branson himself is said to feel restless on windy days, drawn by the invisible power toward the water. Especially when the sky grows dark, the light breeze turns into a powerful storm and the flying spray of sea salt leaves traces on your lips. Virtually no one knows the sport better than former windsurfing pro Alexander Lehmann (42), who is the founder of the kiting magazine ’Kitelife’ and one of the founding fathers of the Ocean Jumps, which draws many thousands of fans every year during Kiel Week. 1 2 4 THE WORLD’S BEST KITE SPOTS 7 5 6 8 9 3 THE BEST KITE SPOTS IN THE WORLD For beginners, intermediate and advanced Rookies Shallow areas guarantee beginners the best conditions. It’s easiest to build resistance in kite surfing in knee-deep water. Top spots: Fehmarn 1 , West Rügen Bodden 2 and Mauritius 3 . Semis The best is an eclectic mix of shallow water and small waves suitable for jumping. Top spots: The German North Sea coast 4 (St. Peter Ording), the Dutch coast 5 and the north coast of Brazil 6 (e.g. Fortaleza). Pros Experienced kite surfers look for strong winds for high pressure in the sails and plenty of waves for acrobatics. Top spots: Northern Denmark (Hanstholm Klitmøller), Brittany 8 , Mauritius 9 (One Eye). 7 18 OIL DATELINE BATTLEZONE CRUDE OIL QUARTERLY 2 | 15 19 DEMAND IS STAGNATING, NEW POWER ALLIANCES ARE FORMING WHO REALLY DETERMINES THE EBB AND FLOW OF OIL PRICES. CRIME AND BLACK GOLD IN THREE CHAPTERS. 20 OIL Produce, process, supply: The oil industry production process Black gold antics The price of oil has decreased enormously. While US production capacities are progressively being scaled down, OPEC still cannot bring itself to cut back. The overall geopolitical situation plays a key role here. P eople of the 21st century still cannot get past crude oil. Despite all efforts to increase the proportion of renewable energy sources, the viscous mixture consisting of hydrocarbons is and will remain the most important raw material by far. According to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) figures, the world consumed more than 92 million barrels of oil per day last year. Just under half of this volume was accounted for by the 34 members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and More than 92 million Development. In its projections, barrels of oil per day are the EIA estimates that the consumed worldwide. demand in OECD countries will stagnate in the long term. By contrast, experts predict a rapid rise in energy consumption, particularly in Asia. By 2040 oil consumption is expected to more than double in the region compared to the 2010 level of 43.2 million barrels per day. According to the EIA, the immense energy needs of emerging economies could push global consump- QUARTERLY 2 | 15 tion to well over 119 million barrels per day within the next 25 years. Against this backdrop, the most recent trends in commodity futures markets seem preposterous. Two futures in particular are in the spotlight: the US generic, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), and North Sea Brent. Until mid-2014 both futures moved at a relatively high level. Then they corrected sharply. Brent and WTI prices both declined by nearly 60 per cent within the space of seven months. It was only at the beginning of 2015 that the black gold stabilised somewhat. The stronger US dollar must have played a certain role in the sales. For example, the greenback appreciated relative to the euro by more than a quarter within twelve months. Since time immemorial, there has been an inverse correlation between the US dollar and commodity prices. No hint of a shortage The linchpin of the correction, however, was on the supply side. According to the EIA, worldwide production exceeded consumption in 2014 by 400,000 21 Global oil consumption: Constant growth in Mb/day e = estimated. Source: EIA. Historical data is not a reliable indicator of future trends. barrels daily. This resulted in a surplus on the global market for the third consecutive year. There is a veritable oil glut, in the US especially. For years, the States have been pushing fracking technology. This production method injects water treated with certain chemicals at high pressure through dense rock masses to extract oil and gas – more on that on page 28. Nevertheless the US energy sector is by no means indifferent to the enormous price drop, particularly given that fracking is a relatively expensive production method. The EIA is already anticipating a slowing of growth. One indication of this is the reduced number of production activities, or rig counts, as they are called in the industry. According to data from Baker Hughes, the number of active oil drilling sites in the US fell by more than 40 per cent in the first quarter of 2015. By the end of February, the oilfield services company had counted fewer than 1,000 extraction points for the first time in almost four years. Fracking technology is used particularly in the extraction of shale gas. “The rig counts are a good early indicator for oil production,” says David Martin, a commodities analyst with J.P. Morgan. He also made mention of the capacity adjustments being made by energy companies. In fact, many multinationals have made drastic cut-backs. Exxon Mobil is one example: against a background of massive price drops, the US conglomerate announced a reduction in capital expenditure for 2015 of approximately 12 per cent, or USD 34 billion. Heavy losses for OPEC According to David Martin, the capacity adjustments are somewhat more aggressive than originally anticipated. They were not, however, able to influence the massive oversupply in the first quarter. “We will have to wait for the impact of these cuts in the 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2011 2012 OECD 2013 Non OECD market,” he said. This is all the more true, given that the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept quiet for the time being. In a highly anticipated meeting in November last year the cartel did not cut back its target production of 30 million barrels per day. According to the EIA, the OPEC oil requirement is 29 million barrels per day. Clearly, OPEC takes into account its relatively low production costs and cutthroat competition. The cartel, which is dominated by Saudi Arabia, seems to be well prepared for heavy losses. Be that as it may, the EIA calculated that the net income for OPEC countries (excluding Iran) from oil exports in 2014 was USD 730 billion, almost USD 100 billion less than the previous year. In 2015, the member states will have even heavier losses to worry about. Meanwhile, by not reducing production, OPEC is contributing to a huge global stockpile. 2014e 2015e 22 OIL OPEC oil export revenues: Severe losses USD billion (nominal), excl. Iran e = estimated. Source: EIA. Historical data is not a reliable indicator of future trends. 1‘000 890 824 900 800 730 700 600 515 500 380 400 300 200 100 0 2012 2013 2014e 2015e 2016e OECD revenues from oil exports According to the EIA, at the end of March OECD member states were holding stocks that would meet their needs for 62 days. Twelve months ago, they held five days’ worth of stock less. Within six months, the stock in the Stock in the USA USA had increased by almost 30 per cent to 467 million barrels. has increased by 30 per cent. QUARTERLY 2 | 15 Peculiarities of the futures market The oil glut can also be seen on the futures graph. WTI in particular shows a steep contango situation. In other words, long-term futures contracts are recording significantly higher prices than current maturities. In concrete terms, a contract due to mature in August cost USD 57 at the beginning of July. To secure the same volume of the commodity for August 2016, you would have to pay USD 60.50 – a premium of 6.1 per cent. Before the price correction the situation looked quite different. Both WTI and Brent stubbornly held firm in backwardation. Experts start speaking of this situation as soon as the futures graph takes a downward turn, because then late-maturing futures are cheaper than futures maturing earlier. Backwardation occurs particularly when market players expect a shortage. They are then prepared to pay a premium for the commodity in exchange for short-term availability. The unstable situation in several producing countries led to latent supply fears until late last year. In addition to the nuclear dispute between the West and Iran, the rather depressing situation in Iraq, Syria and Libya and the conflict in Ukraine were considered to be the main negative factors. The market seems more or less to ignore the geopolitical risk premium, which is always a significant pricing parameter, and could come into play at any time, particularly since the flashpoints outlined above – apart from the possible agreement with Iran – have only partly lost their fire-power. Nevertheless, the prospects depend heavily on the relationship between supply and demand. In the short term a gradually declining boom can be expected from the production side. Economic trends will play a decisive role as regards demand. If other major economies pick up speed once the US economy does, this could increase the demand for oil. Forecasters are still cautious though: both the EIA and the International Energy Agency estimate that global demand growth this year will be just under one per cent. Experts predict price increases Most analysts therefore expect only a slow recovery in prices. At the end of March, Reuters news agency interviewed 34 equity research companies as to their 23 Oil price (WTI): Sharp correction in USD/bbl. Source: Thomson Reuters. Historical data is not a reliable indicator of future trends. 140 140 120 100 80 60 44.6 40 03/05 03/06 03/07 03/08 03/09 03/10 WTI prognosis. According to Reuters, the experts forecast that the price per barrel for Brent crude will average out at USD 70 in 2016. This means that the cost of North Sea oil would increase by some 13 per cent compared to current levels. Meanwhile the WTI midrate for the coming year is estimated at USD 65.50. This represents an upward potential of 14.9 per cent. If the analysts are right, consumers can expect rising costs at the petrol station or travel agent and in the retail trade in the medium term. 03/11 03/12 03/13 03/14 03/15 24 OIL In hot oil The sharp fall in prices has hit the oil and gas sector hard. European sector representatives economise. The first mega-deal could herald further consolidation. O QUARTERLY 2 | 15 n 21 June there was a small anniversary of sorts on the agenda at the Swiss Exchange. It was the day that marked five years since Transocean was listed on the Swiss Market Index (SMI®). Exactly two months and one day after the shares of the world’s largest operator of oil rigs and tankers were first traded on the SIX Swiss Exchange, they gained entry into the leading domestic index on 21 June 2010. Neither the company itself nor its shareholders have much reason to celebrate five years later. Against the SIX opening prices of CHF 95.02, the shares have currently lost more than fourfifths of their value. example. Yet what happened to Transocean is a clear demonstration of how a decline in oil prices can leave deep scars. This applies not only to specialist service providers but also to broad-based industry representatives. Groups such as these set the tone on the STOXX® Europe 600 Oil & Gas index. Almost simultaneously with the commodity listing, the European sector index took a downward turn in mid-2014 and fell by almost a third in less than six months. Since then the benchmark has made up for most of the losses. Amongst other things, the stabilisation of the oil price helped. Possibly, a good many investors were interested because dividend yields can be high at times. Serious crisis It was ill fated right from start. A few hours after the security debuted on the Swiss stock market, Deepwater Horizon, the oil-rig operated by Transocean, caught fire, triggering a disaster of catastrophic proportions in the Gulf of Mexico. The debacle was not yet over in the courts, but the group already faced other major challenges. First, interest in drilling on the high seas fell in the wake of the US fracking boom (see page 28 ff.). Then, Transocean had to cope with the sharp drop in prices in the oil market. It responded by bringing down the financial curtain and posted a net loss of just under USD 2 billion because of high write-downs. Shortly before the Zug-based company presented its figures, CEO Steve Newman had to resign. The faltering member of the SMI® is an extreme Priority given to dividends According to Kepler Cheuvreux analysts, defending dividends for Europe’s integrated oil and gas companies is a high priority. In addition to strong balance sheets, selective asset sales, declining investments and operational improvements would give companies the flexibility they need to do so. “We believe that the sector is currently in much better shape than in 2008, when three companies cut their dividends,” wrote the experts in a study published at the end of January. In fact, the asset managers see this priority as being almost sacrosanct. Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Total, the three biggest oil companies in Europe in terms of their stock market value, all increased their dividends in respect of 2014. Only Italian multinational ENI stepped out of line, announcing a reduction in its dividend in mid-March and 25 COMPANY Royal Dutch Shell HEAD OFFICE The Hague, The Netherlands EMPLOYEES 2015 P/E RATIO 94,000 14.0 ANALYSTS‘ RECOMMENDATIONS 13 Buy | 15 Hold | 2 Sell MARKET CAPITALISATION CHF 169 bn COMPANY BP HEAD OFFICE London, United Kingdom EMPLOYEES 2015 P/E RATIO 84,500 16.0 ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATIONS 7 Buy | 20 Hold | 7 Sell MARKET CAPITALISATION CHF 131 bn 26 OIL Europe’s biggest oil and gas corporations*: Royal Dutch Shell at the top * Based on STOXX® Europe 600 Oil & Gas, as at 02.07.2015. Source: Thomson Reuters. Historical data is not a reliable indicator of future trends. Company Country Market capitalisation (CHF bn.) Royal Dutch Shell NL 169 BP GB 113 Total FR 110 ENI IT 62 BG Group GB 53 Statoil NO 52 Repsol ES 23 Vestas Wind DK 11 Galp Energia PRT 9 OMV AT 8 suspending a buyback on its shares. At the same time, it trimmed planned investments for the period 2015 to 2018 by 17 per cent to around EUR 48 billion. This was not enough: a further EUR 8 billion is to come from the sale of investments. How strict the cuts have to be all depends on the cash breakeven oil price, the nominal price above which the production of black gold achieves a positive cash flow for the company. Kepler Cheuvreux estimated the threshold for the European sector this year at an average of USD 110 per barrel. The breakeven figure could fall to below the 100-dollar mark in 2016. While ENI recorded an above-average value, an oil price of USD 96 in 2015 would suffice for Royal Is the BG Dutch Shell to increase its liquid assets. The acquisition putting commodity recorded an amount well below this in the first quarter, but at the beginning a strain on Royal of March, credit-rating agency Moody’s Dutch Shell? deemed the European sector Croesus best positioned, after world number one Exxon Mobil, to cope with these adverse conditions. It said both companies had reached a phase where a lower level of investment would be necessary. Now, major projects are close to completion and will commence production over the next two years. QUARTERLY 2 | 15 A real mega-deal On 8 April, Royal Dutch Shell itself cast serious doubt on this ‘accolade’ and announced the purchase of British gas producer BG. With a price tag equivalent to around CHF 61 billion, this is the largest takeover the energy sector has seen in over a decade. If the competition authorities give it their blessing, this would lead to the rise of a real giant in the sector. Shell could increase its oil and gas reserves by 25 per cent, thereby closing the gap between itself and Exxon Mobil. Management have had to dig deep into their pockets for this. The bid represents a premium of more than half the value of the average BG share price in the three months leading up to the announcement of the transaction. “We considered a variety of options, but BG was always high on our list,” said Shell CEO Ben van Beurden, commenting on the venture. The acquisition would result in the group getting access to major projects in Australia, Brazil, East Africa, Egypt and Kazakhstan. This would enable it to become the world’s leading supplier of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), an energy source that plays an important role in Europe, since it could help reduce dependence on Europe’s natural gas supplier, Russia. While business with Russia relies on a huge pipeline network, LPG can be transported by sea, rail or road. Nevertheless, news of the takeover received a mixed reaction in the stock market. “The deal is expected to be an excellent fit for Shell,” wrote the brokerage firm Jefferies in a commentary. Kepler Cheuvreux is of the opinion that the Anglo-Dutch group is paying a high price. “The BG acquisition is clearly affecting the ability of Royal Dutch Shell to generate free cash flow and earnings for shareholders in the medium term,” was the worry expressed by the financial service provider’s experts. Historic parallels Nevertheless, the transaction raises the question as to whether the sector is on the brink of a fresh wave of consolidation. Ultimately, the latest mega-deal is reminiscent of the time around the turn of the millennium, when a barrel of Western Texas Intermediate oil sometimes cost less than USD 11. The industry responded with numerous mergers and acquisitions. BP concluded a deal with the established American 27 mergers and acquisitions are no guarantee of future success, however spectacular they are. The industry has to make an ever greater effort to tap the remaining oil reserves around the world, because despite all efforts to date to increase in size and reduce costs, these will remain the two key drivers in the future. Besides the demand for energy being strongly linked to the overall economic climate, the price of the most important commodity in the world is a factor. In this respect, the last few months have clearly demonstrated how quickly an industry can – quite literally – find itself in hot oil. company Amoco in 1998. Then in 2000, the British multinational struck once again in the USA and purchased Arco. BP has since divested the service station operator. The current hegemony of Exxon also harks back to that time. At the end of November 1999, the US multinational, which was formed in the 1920s, merged with Mobil Oil, which closed the gap with Transocean. In 2001, it merged with R&B Falcon Corporation and became the world’s largest offshore drilling company. Today the security is traded at a lower price than at the beginning of the millennium, however. What this does show is that 2015 Cash breakeven oil price: Big differences USD/bbl. Source: Kepler Cheuvreux. Historical data is not a reliable indicator of future trends. Repsol 191 ENI 116 Sektor 110 BP 104 Statoil 100 BG 100 Royal Dutch Shell 96 OMV 92 Total 0 77 20 40 60 80 100 Current oil price (Brent) 120 140 160 180 200 28 OIL A country intoxicated by oil The USA is back in the ranks of world oil superpowers Controversial fracking production methods are literally causing production in some parts of the country to explode. T he TV series ‘Dallas’ in the early 1980s gave Europe an image of the US oil boom. The ultra-modern Texas skyline appeared even in the opening credits of the hit series, as did derricks and pumps, thus depicting the connection between the energy source and the prosperity of the region. However, at the time when J.R. Ewing, the ruthless tycoon, was doing mischief on television, the sector had already passed its prime. After five decades of unabated growth, oil production in the USA reached its peak in 1970 at 9.6 million barrels per day. Then one by one, the wells started drying up. In 2008, the oil companies were only bringing five million barrels per day to USA is close on the surface. However, a decade later, the USA the heels of Saudi returned to the ranks of the world's Arabia. oil superpowers. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that production this year will reach around nine million barrels per day. In 2016 the sector could once again grow by around 100,000 units. This would bring American production up to around half a million barrels per day less than what Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces. QUARTERLY 2 | 15 Controversial cocktail The new rush has a name: fracking. This technology makes it possible to draw oil and gas from deposits where after drilling, it is not capable of producing more than a few bubbles on the surface on its own and has to be extracted from the rock formations. This is where there is a difference in the jargon used between conventional fracking and non-conventional fracking. The conventional method is relatively straightforward and is common in Europe too. It is most often used in sandstone. Sandstone has large pores which are also connected to one another, which makes it relatively easy to extract the raw material. It becomes more problematic when the natural gas is stored in dense shale. This is a result of millions of years of accumulation of sedimentary deposits of originally fine mineral components. A combination of a lack of oxygen, high pressure and higher temperatures has, over time, created crude oil and, later, natural gas. Over the course of time, the hydrocarbons thus formed escaped, most often into conventional reservoirs. Non-conventional fracking, on the other hand, is aimed at extracting what remains in the bedrock – known as shale gas and oil. Gaining access to such a source is not merely a matter of drilling for or blasting the raw material. Rather, the permeability of the rock has to be increased using a hydraulic fracturing method that breaks up the shale 29 rock formation by injecting high pressure fluid into it. This method causes fractures. To keep the fissures open, a mixture of fracking fluid, water, proppants and chemicals is used. This cocktail is the focus of fierce debate in Europe centred on the dangers of fracking. Critics fear the contamination of soil and groundwater, and the creation of hazardous waste. The Greens, and several other organisations, have scored points with the public with these arguments in the past year. They submitted an initiative to the State Chancellery, containing 17,900 signatures, which lobbied for the ban of the production of crude oil and natural gas from non-conventional reserves in the Canton of Berne. Irrespective of the protests, the volume of shale oil reserves in Western Europe is relatively insignificant. In any case, the region is not among the ten countries which have the greatest potential worldwide (see graph below). move again in the other direction. The US oil industry hardly need fear a renewed downward spiral. US production of shale oil: Important prospecting regions Mb/day EIA. Historical data is not a reliable indicator of future trends. 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Center Texas Fracking The ongoing debate on the European side of the Atlantic can do no harm to the boom in the USA, in any event. In several parts of the country, the pumps are operating at full speed. The Eagle Ford Formation has developed into a true oil centre. It was just five years ago that South Texas began horizontal drilling. At the end of 2007, production from this process typical of fracking operations reached a mere 60,000 barrels per day. According to the EIA, in April 2015 daily production was in excess of 1.7 million barrels of crude oil per day. The Eagle Ford Formation is thus not only responsible for more than 10 per cent of total US production, but the region also operates on a par with Angola – the African country which is OPEC’s twelfth member state. Despite the steep price correction in black gold, production in the area is still profitable. According to a study published by J.P. Morgan Asset Management at the end of November 2014, the Eagle Ford cash breakeven oil price was a little over USD 40 per barrel. In other regions of the USA, managers in this industry accustomed to success are more likely to work up a sweat. For example, analysts estimate that the breakeven threshold for the Bakken formation in North Dakota is more than USD 60. If the estimate were accurate, the third-largest fracking region in the USA would not have earned any more money since the end of 2014. So it is not surprising that the energy sector is putting the brakes on costs across the United States. Although somewhat belated, this should also lead to a decrease in production volumes. The prices for black gold, however, could rapidly 0.5 0 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 Eagle Ford (TX) Bonespring (TX & NM Permian) 01/11 01/12 Bakken (MT & ND) Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian) 01/13 01/14 01/15 Spraberry (TX & NM Permian) Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Global shale gas reserves: China at its peak Percentage of technically exploitable reserves. Source: EIA. Historical data is not a reliable indicator of future trends. 4% 8% Canada 9% Russia USA 7% Mexico 10% 15% Algeria China 3% Brazil 11% Argentina 6% 5% Australia South Africa 30 FUTURE PHARMA A MARKET WITHOUT LIMITS Around the globe, more and more people can afford to buy medicine. Rising prosperity, especially in Asia, means that health-care expenditure will be increasing. The pharma industry will be profiting from this, and their prospects are marvellous. T he latest deal in the pharma industry is estimated at USD 21 billion. The American pharma corporation Abbvie intends to acquire Pharmacyclics, a manufacturer of cancer drugs. Mylan, a US-based producer of generics, wants to take over the Irish company Perrigo for USD 29 billion. The German company Merck KGaA announced the acquisition of lab equipment manufacturer Sigma-Aldrich for USD 17 billion, and the latter’s stocks skyrocketed when the news broke. These mergers and acquisitions illustrate that pharmaceutical companies are repositioning themselves so the industry can face the challenges of a growing QUARTERLY 2 | 15 market that is currently in transition. Last year the merger between Pfizer and Astra-Zeneca failed by a narrow margin; it would have been valued at USD 117 billion. “The trend towards further M&As will keep going strong in the future,” states Peter Abdill, managing director at the rating agency Moody’s, in a conference call held in late April in New York about the prospects of the pharma industry. The analysts at Moody’s paint a rosy picture of the future. Credit Suisse recently raised the stock price targets of pharmaceutical companies such as Bristol-Meyers, Pfizer, Eli Lilly and Merck & Co. The PEG ratio in the industry, a way of measuring a stock’s potential growth, is higher than that of the biotech industry, which was 31 Causes of death in 2010 Infectious diseases lost some ground, but more and more people are now dying of age-related illnesses and lifestyle diseases Tuberculosis 1.19 m Meningitis Sexually transmitted infections (excl. AIDS) Other perinatal infections HIV / Aids 1.46 m 422,900 118,300 Syphilis 113,300 721,200 Hepatitis AIDS and tuberculosis Measles 58,100 Diarrhoeal, respiratory diseases, meningitis and other infectious diseases 1.44 m 81,400 Rota Virus Chronic bronchitis and emphysema Pregnancy complications 2.9 m 254,700 Global death statistics in the year 2010 Pneumonia 827,300 Gastric ulcers Musculoskeletal diseases Appendicitis 246,300 34,800 18,200 Chronic respiratory diseases 345,700 Cirrhosis of the liver 1.03 m Gastrointestinal diseases (excl. cirrhosis) Neurological disorders Asthma 3.78 m 52.77 m 153,500 Multiple sclerosis 26,400 684,100 Tetanus 507,900 Rabies 1.32 m Malnourishment 61,300 2.81 m Influenza Tropical diseases and malaria 2.23 m Whooping cough Lower respiratory tract infections Malaria 1.16 m 859,700 Neonatal disorders 5.28 m 250,900 Complications among premature infants 2.66 m 125,400 Diarrhoeal diseases Cholera 307,700 Traffic accidents 1.33 m 1.11 m Pedestrians 1.27 m 461,000 Parkinson’s 111,100 Cyclists Alzheimer’s / other forms of dementia Epilepsy 177,600 485,700 Natural disasters / war Falling 1.34 m 213,700 Rheumatic heart diseases Cardiomyopathy 83,300 Homicide / suicide 540,500 Drowning self-inflicted injuries 345,100 883,700 Interpersonal violence Diabetes, urinary / hormonal diseases 403,900 349,100 Accidents (excl. traffic accidents) 456,300 2.73 m 2.12 m Firearms 196,200 High blood pressure Cardiovascular diseases 873,200 15.62 m Knifes / blades Psychological disorders 231,900 126,700 Urinary tract diseases 267,100 64,300 1.52 m 1.28 m 735,600 Drugs 77,600 Alcohol 111,100 225,400 Stroke 5.87 m Heart attack 7.03 m Prostate cancer 754,900 Cancer 7.98 m 256,000 Liver cancer 752,100 Breast cancer 438,700 Source: www.zeit.de/2013 Stomach cancer Cervical cancer Colon cancer 714,600 Burns Poisoning 180,400 Lung cancer Diabetes melitus Chronic kidney diseases Contact with animals 337,600 32 FUTURE Living longer Over the course of the past decades, the life expectancy of newborns has increased in 178 of 187 countries. Vaccinations protect us from diseases, and aid programmes extend patients’ life spans. Not only are we living longer, we are spending more time living in good health. New dangers When a health risk causes a disease, the people affected may have to spend years living with a disability. One way of quantifying this issue is calculating the DALY, i.e. disability-adjusted life years. The higher the value, the more years someone spends in poor health, and the lower their quality of life. The five greatest risks to health 1. High blood pressure 2. Smoking 73 worldwide 3. Alcohol abuse 4. Environmental pollutants 68 68 63 62 5. Nutritionally poor diet These five conditions reduce a healthy life expectancy 1. Heart attack 2. Lower respiratory tract infections 58 3. Stroke 58 4. Diarrhoeal diseases 5. AIDS 54 1990 2010 Life expectancy (in years at time of birth) Years of life spent in good health (as projected at time of birth) long considered a lucrative investment opportunity. This comes as no surprise: health is our most precious resource, and more and more people are able to spend increasing amounts of money to protect it. The world’s population is growing; prosperity is on the rise, and it is accompanied by Western lifestyles which contribute to the development of several different diseases, most of which are chronic. A hundred years ago, most people in Switzerland died of the flu, tuberculosis or gastrointestinal infections. Nowadays we die of ‘lifestyle diseases’. Our cardiovascular systems are growing weaker, the consequences of diabetes and obesity are creating more and more problems for people, and the number of cancer diagnoses is rising as our society ages. Greater prosperity will make sales explode. QUARTERLY 2 | 15 Source: www.zeit.de/2013 All of this is very costly. Every year, around the world more than USD 980 billion are spent on medicine. These figures have doubled within the past decade. For the year 2018, the consulting company Deloitte has forecast international pharmaceutical sales of USD 1,610 billion. “There will be strong market growth, particularly in oncology and in treating cardiovascular diseases,” Deloitte writes in its industry report ‘2015 Global Life Science Outlook’. The global economy is increasing at an annual rate of nearly 1.5 per cent, while pharmaceutical sales are expected grow by 6.9 per cent. This number is significantly greater than the amount spent on healthcare, which rises by 5.2 per cent per year. Demand is being propelled forward in particular by prosperity in emerging and developing countries. Some 20 per cent of the pharma industry’s revenue 33 already comes from the BRIC countries alone. If we look at how much people spend on medication in different countries, we can estimate the potential sales that will result from the combination of more widespread prosperity and a growing global population. In the US, the world’s largest pharma market, the per-capita expenditure on medicine is USD 1,020; in Japan, the second largest market, it is USD 1,245, whereas Germany comes in at USD 520. China currently holds third place on the international pharma market, but its per-capita figure is only USD 29. Greater prosperity will make sales explode. The Chinese market is growing by 20% every year, and nearly 40 per cent of the total growth on the drug market comes from higher demand there. Every pharma company is investing in China so that they may be part of the market of the future. Novartis is investing USD 1 billion in a new research centre which will be the corporation’s third largest. Bayer is spending EUR 110 million on a research and development centre in Beijing. In the past few years, major pharmaceutical companies have faced massive drops in sales among their ‘cash cows’ as patents expired on their largest sources of revenue. Inexpensive copycat products have crowded the market. In the last five years alone, pharmaceuticals manufacturers that have their own research divisions have lost sales of CHF 120 billion, according to consulting company IMS Health. The blockbuster product Diovan brought Novartis nearly USD 6 billion per year until its patent ran out. This pattern will be interrupted for a while, however. “We estimate that only a few active substances will lose their patent protection in 2015/2016,” said Moody’s Peter Abdill during the conference call. Launching new products to fill the gap is difficult, especially since the conditions for market approval are growing more complex. It takes between eight to twelve years and costs some USD 1.5 billion for a new medication to go from the initial design to finding a place on pharmacy shelves. It therefore comes as no surprise that the speed of innovations in the pharma industry has become significantly slower. 23 new active ingredients were approved in the US between 2005 and 2010, whilst this number was closer to 50 within a comparable time frame a decade earlier. “We believe that in the next few years we will see several breakthroughs in cancer treatment,” says Jerome Brimeyer, Equity Sector Strategist at UBS in New York. “They will translate into several top-selling medications, some of which will have the potential to reach a billion dollars or more in sales.” Nevertheless, the trend is moving away from block- RARE DISEASES UNUSUAL GENETICALLY-CAUSED ILLNESSES WHICH AFFECT 30 MILLION PEOPLE. Experts estimate that there are some 7,000 to 8,000 rare diseases around the world. These are defined as diseases which affect a maximum of five in 100,000 people. Some six to eight percent of the general population has a rare disease, and in Europe over 30 million people are thought to be affected. Most of these conditions are genetic in origin and manifest during infancy or childhood. They can cause metabolic disorders in the blood and immune system or lead to diseases in bodily tissues. One of the most well-known examples is progeria – the condition when children age quickly and prematurely. Another is Morquio syndrome, in which a disorder of the metabolism changes the skeleton. – Those affected have a short stature. In Switzerland some 1,000 people have Morquio syndrome. Many physicians seldom encounter these rare diseases, which means the conditions are often not diagnosed until the patient has invested a great deal of time, experienced multiple misdiagnoses and undergone an odyssey through several doctors’ surgeries. More information available at: www.orpha.net busters and towards drugs which treat rare diseases. Several medications have been launched in recent decades to treat the most widespread illnesses; as an alternative, the pharma industry has now turned to a category of illnesses known as rare diseases. In the past it was not considered worthwhile investing research money into finding treatments for patients with conditions such as Barrett’s oesophagus or Paget’s disease. The industry, however, has now turned its attention to the range of rare diseases which encompasses dozens of different conditions. In Switzerland alone, for example, some 400,000 people have a rare disease. When the numbers of patients around the globe are added up, the result is a market which is still completely untapped. In early May, the US-based company Alexion announced its plans to take over the pharmaceutical company Synagena. The deal will cost some USD 8.4 billion. The reason for the M&A: Alexion, the market leader in treating rare diseases, intends to expand its competence in this area. 34 MADE TO MEASURE PREMIUM BRAND We need innovations QUARTERLY 2 | 15 35 Hamburg-based Montblanc is famous for its writing instruments. But at its current level of production, the Richemont Group subsidiary feels underutilised. 36 MADE TO MEASURE 100 YEARS OF CRAFTSMANSHIP. When creations take shape. Mr Lambert, for many years your company has been known only as a manufacturer of classic writing instruments. What does Montblanc stand for today? You are now selling perfume, leather goods and even wristwatches. Each of our products needs three things: quality, value, and technical excellence. This is actually quite simple. It’s the common denominator within our range. Each of our products needs three things: quality, value, and technical excellence. You have made a career as a watch manager and were head of A. Lange & Söhne and Jaeger-LeCoultre. Why the penchant for watches? Watches fit in well, because like writing instruments, their manufacture requires extremely precise mechanical skill. Sometimes even the machinery and tools are the same. For example, we polish writing instruments and watches in much the same way. Those are the technical aspects. To what extent do your clienteles overlap? Generally, those who value fine writing instruments are also interested in watches. We see both as quality companions for life; they share the same intrinsic values. Your timepieces are manufactured in Switzerland in two different watch factories, each with its own tradition and values – with the one in Villeret making the top-of-the-range timepieces and the other in Le Locle focusing on the mid-range products. What’s the reason behind that? You know, we are merely doing what brands rich in tradition such as Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and Vacheron Constantin have already been doing for QUARTERLY 2 | 15 a long time. At Montblanc we are writing this history in the present day. That sounds good, but what do you mean exactly? Just like us, those watchmakers had their origins in different companies with different outlooks. Over time, they have grown together to form a single company. That’s exactly what is happening with us. I know this from my own experience at JaegerLeCoultre. The watch housings were originally produced by Jaeger in France, and the rest came from Switzerland. For decades, until the 1970s, the watches were sold under both brand names: Jaeger and LeCoultre. How do the two factories differ? At Minerva in Villeret, the timepieces undergo very special treatment. We liken it to the way vegetables were cooked before the advent of the agro-industry. One watchmaker makes an entire timepiece; there is no modern division of labour. On average, he needs a year to do it. By contrast, even at Jaeger-LeCoultre watches are manufactured at nine workshops employing a total of 150 staff. How do you increase sales figures for timepieces manufactured in Villeret? Good question. It is simply not possible. We can only make between 30 and 40 grand complication watches each year, plus between 100 and 150 moving parts. And that’s it! Why do you have this spread between the luxury timepieces from Villeret, such as the ‘Homage to Nicolas Rieussec’ limited edition for EUR 26,900, and 37 the relatively more affordable entry-level timepieces made in Le Locle, priced from EUR 1,290? The very best in fine watchmaking gives us credibility. Remember that there is a transfer of knowledge at play: the master watchmakers in Villeret share their expertise with their colleagues in Le Locle, since both factories use what is developed there – I have merged development operations. It is the same for the fountain pens here in Hamburg. We make the ‘Monte Celio’ for EUR 2.4 million as a unique piece, but we also offer models priced at EUR 365. And both are crafted by hand using the same skills. Have we reached a turning point? Mechanical watches have become more and more expensive over the years; now the strong Swiss franc results in a forced price increase – and yet the industry is talking about cheaper models. People like the late Günter Blümlein, who revived the popularity of brands such as IWC and Jaeger-LeCoultre in the 1990s, awakened new interest in precision watchmaking, especially with the first grand complication by IWC, which had a perpetual calendar but also a comparatively reasonable price tag. Once a true market had been created, the prices of manufactured timepieces knew only one direction: upwards. Other suppliers had no means of competing technically. How does that relate to Montblanc? We are able to offer complications – and can do so at a reasonable price. Reinventing yourself is important to you. As the newly-installed CEO of Montblanc, you have already asked your team to come up with a whole range of new models within the space of just six months. Why be so ambitious? Because we enjoy such incredible privilege. Transforming a dream into a luxury item has a hint of Faust or Prometheus about it! But how many can still do that these days? Such craftsmanship is becoming increasingly rare. This places an obligation on us to continue to make the magic of that first encounter with a new product possible. We need to add creative innovation to technology. Speaking of which— Given the ‘Apple Watch’, is the younger generation not moving away from mechanical timepieces? That is a key question for our industry, and one that is difficult to answer. It was important to me that Montblanc found an appropriate response. We have Transforming a dream into a luxury item has a hint of Faust or Prometheus about it Jérôme Lambert JÉRÔME LAMBERT is now seeking to cause a sensation in the watchmaking industry responded with the e-Strap, which offers the functionality of a smart watch, but is simply an extension attached to the strap of any watch. The Apple Watch is an opportunity, because people who would otherwise have no other watch will buy it. Perhaps it is an effective recruiting mechanism for our industry. The good thing is that Apple has brought the clock – the watch – back to the watch strap. When will Montblanc offer a smart watch? I always look to see who is involved in a particular field of activity. And with Apple, there is a giant involved in the smart watch. That is a battle one cannot win. I could therefore not imagine engaging in a battle with them. And you have to remember that it is our desire to manufacture lifelong companions which, by definition – and for technical reasons – a smart watch is not. That’s why we launched the e-Strap add-on, which can be replaced, and not an actual watch. What kind of timepiece does not exist yet that you definitely want to create? I cannot tell you that. But I do have some things in mind. You’ll be surprised. We have a few things planned. Yesterday, we spent half a day in a creative workshop brainstorming on a product which we will be launching in 2016. That’s the beauty of what we do: we manufacture things that have been in existence for a hundred years, yet there are still no limits to our creativity. 38 LOCATION 48 HOURS IN MONACO There is more to Monaco than its casino. It has a thriving financial market, a wealth of leisure activities on offer, and one of the most beautiful yacht harbours in the world. T Alejandro Pou Cuturi (CEO) Christophe Spanier (CFO) Leonteq Securities S.A.M. Monaco was founded in 2009. Its offices in the Principality are in the same building as EFG Bank. The task of its twelve employees is to develop sales of cross-asset derivatives in the offshore sector. Capital holdings are good, reserves in the Principality are high, and the foreign capital portion is minimal. The branch is very successful. It is managed by Alejandro Pou Cuturi (CEO) and Head of Sales, Christophe Spanier (CFO). QUARTERLY 2 | 15 alk about Monaco, and you’re talking money. Monaco is an important financial marketplace in Europe. It currently has 38,000 residents, and the population is growing slowly, but steadily. The eight high-rise buildings currently being built in the centre of Monaco are a very visible symbol of this growth, and of the way the Principality looks to the future. One major project is to enlarge the land surface area by wresting habitat from the sea. In the next few years, extensions of Monaco into the Mediterranean Sea will be built on pile foundations. “ The salary structure in Monaco is similar to that in France, except that the conditions are better because social security contributions are lower here,” says Leonteq Monaco CFO and Head of Sales, Christophe Spanier. The German-born 35-year-old manager helped to establish this exclusive location and has been working for Leonteq since 2008, as has 41-year-old Leonteq Monaco CEO, Alejandro Pou Cuturi. Chief among Leonteq’s clients are private banks, portfolio management and asset management companies and family offices. Leonteq Monaco is also responsible for operations in Latin America and Italian and Frenchspeaking Switzerland. For Christophe Spanier, who studied in Bamberg, Oxford, Madrid and Paris, both his workplace and its location are a privilege. “The quality of life here is incomparable.” Monaco is also a great spot for tourists. And it doesn’t have to be expensive either: “I get a good lunch every day for EUR 20. For the Swiss, prices here are even considered cheap.” What is expensive, however, is accommodation, whether rented or purchased, since millionaires like the tennis player Novak Djokovic and racing legend David Coulthard live here. In addition to places that absolutely everyone visits, such as the famous Casino, there are some beautiful spots that are not in the guide books, says Alejandro Pou Cuturi, who studied at the Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Arts et Métiers (Paris) and ESSEC (Paris). His tip regarding the historic Grand Prix: every second year, two weeks before the main Formula 1 race, all the classic cars line up at the start line. Entrance is cheap at EUR 20 to EUR 40 to see the vintage cars from days gone by. Two other highlights are the tennis tournament in April and the yacht show at the end of September. Christophe Spanier especially enjoys jogging along the shoreline, between Marquet Beach and La Mala Beach. Forty-five minutes there and back is all it takes to clear his head. He also enjoys the excellent fish dishes nearby at Restaurant la Pinède, where you can drink cocktails and enjoy the sunset before dining. Monaco is also a good destination if you’re travelling with children. There’s a huge choice of playgrounds, childcare facilities and things to do. 39 MONACO AT A GLANCE Official languageFrench Type of government Hereditary monarchy System of government Constitutional monarchy Head of State Prince Albert II Area 2.03 km² Number of residents 36,950 of which 78% are foreign Population density 18,229 inhabitants/km² CurrencyEuro Independence 25 February 1489 (from France) National day 19 November Telephone country code+377 40 LOCATION Tips for Monaco BARS DISCO CONCERTS EXHIBITIONS OUTDOOR Sass Café bar is famous for always having something new on offer and is always well patronised by tourists and Monegasques alike. There is live music on Saturdays. An ideal place for a few drinks before you go to a club. Less traditional is the Twiga, because it was only opened last year by Flavio Briatore. You’ll see quite a few celebrities and jet-setters here. You can arrive here by boat too; Twiga has its own private dock. In the middle of the Sporting Monte-Carlo complex you’ll find Jimmy’z Sporting Monte-Carlo, one of the most famous nightclubs in the world. Its seaside location and modern design provide plenty of visual stimulation. The turntables are regularly manned by DJ greats such as Bob Sinclar and David Morales. Zelo’s is an exclusive, stylish nightclub with a beautiful sea view. La Rascasse is an excellent club for the younger set with less money to burn. A concert for lovers of schmooze music: superstar Enrique Iglesias will be at the Monte-Carlo Sporting Summer Festival on 16 August 2015, giving a Latin Night performance in the Salle des Etoiles. If a heavier beat is more your thing, then the German electro-pop pioneers from 1970, Kraftwerk, are a must (cult hit: ‘Autobahn’). They are performing on 11 November at Sporting Monte-Carlo. The Musée du Vieux Monaco in the old town is open from Wednesday to Friday between 11 am and 4 pm from June until the end of October. Admission is free. On exhibit are items belonging to Monaco’s cultural heritage, including ceramics, paintings, furniture and costumes. Car enthusiasts can visit the Fontvieille terrace and admire the remarkable Vintage Collection of Prince Rainier III of Monaco. The collection comprises about 100 vehicles of different ages. If you want to stretch your legs a little more, you should definitely pay a visit to the medieval village of Roquebrune-sur-Argens just across the border in France. With its hillside location and view of Monaco, the village provides an ideal escape from the hustle and bustle of the Principality. Beautiful walks are also to be had in and around Menton, with its many lemon and orange orchards. QUARTERLY 2 | 15 41 EATING OUT RELAXATION TIPS TRANSPORT SHOPPING Les Privés, the classic French restaurant at the Monte Carlo Casino, offers an impressive view of the Mediterranean Sea and Cap Martin, without the need to leave the gaming rooms. The Vistamar has one Michelin star and offers original gourmet concepts created by Head Chef Joël Garault. Meat connoisseurs dine at the BeefBar in Fontvieille, which has, among other delights, the finest Kobe beef on its menu. Thermes Marins Monte-Carlo resort is the perfect place for an invigorating spa relaxation or fitness session. You’ll find a great combination of a professional team, the right equipment and a wide range of treatments here. The various programmes on offer are especially designed for lasting relaxation. If you are looking to relax in a more natural environment, you might like the Japanese Gardens on Avenue Princesse Grace. April to September is the best time to visit. In the autumn, however, it is often rainy. The usual tip in Monaco is 10 – 15% of the bill. In larger restaurants, the tip is often included in the bill. For admission to the Casino, you must be over the age of 21. The Casino is also a must for art lovers. Its frescoes and sculptures are unique. Elegant attire is recommended throughout Monaco. Monaco is easily accessible. There are six bus lines operated by the CAM – Compagnie des Autobus de Monaco. Other bus lines connect the city with Nice (and its airport) and Menton. Monaco’s SNCF underground railway station also offers travel connections in all directions. There is a ferry between the harbours of Port Hercules and Fontvieille. The helicopter from Monaco to Nice Airport is very popular (EUR 125 per person). The best place to shop is on the quays. This is where you’ll find designer boutiques such as Dior, Chanel, Cartier and Hermes as well as many souvenir shops. Monaco also has outlet centres, where brand clothing from the previous season is sold at a discount. There is a large mall called Le Metropole Shopping Center. The Pavillions Monte-Carlo is another shopping centre close to the Casino. 42 GIMMICKS PIMP MY GRILL AB DIE POST BBQ o’clock! Taste is everything. THE PERFECT AROMA This smoky two-piece stainless steel box with its smoker box and lid gives foods a delicious smoky flavour. The longer the box stays on the barbecue, the stronger the aroma. Approx. CHF 25. FRESHLY PRESSED Making the perfect burger patty is child’s play with the burger press. The size can be adjusted to suit your appetite and personal preference. Approx. CHF 25. www.williams-sonoma.com.au An injection of flavour: this needle enables you to inject the marinade directly into the meat, for a fuller flavour and shorter marinating time. Approx. CHF 18. www.roesle.de SMART BBQ Making perfectly grilled meat is as easy as pie with this gadget. Simply insert the probe into the food to be grilled, connect the iGrill 2 via Bluetooth to your smart phone and read the inner temperature on the display. Approx. CHF 120. www.smartdevices.com SPRING CLEANING With the Grillbot, the bothersome chore of cleaning the barbecue will soon be a thing of the past. The fully automatic and reliable cleaning robot gets rid of all those burnt bits and food waste. Approx. CHF 140. www.grillbots.com INTERNAL 43 UPGRADE TO LEONTEQ Leonteq Securities (formerly EFG Financial Products) was founded at the end of 2007 with the original purpose of issuing and selling structured products. In the meantime, the platform is now available to external partners too, in line with our Partnerships strategy. We have consciously set ourselves the goal of playing a key role in shaping the market for structured products with transparency and a differentiated range of services. As an independent outsourcing partner for investment product services, we are unique in the industry and well positioned to develop the market further. Leonteq Securities has one of the most experienced teams of experts in the business focused on customer service across all areas of the company and supported by our state-ofthe-art, integrated IT infrastructure. With our modern, integrated platform, which is designed for flexibility, innovation, customer service and transparency, we are a leader in the Swiss market. We operate internationally, with a focus on Europe and Asia. ARE YOU INTERESTED? In that case, we look forward to receiving your detailed application. hr@leonteq.com SAVE THE DATE 15/09/2015 Leonteq’s Investor Day 9.00 a.m. – 4.00 p.m. Park Hyatt Zurich Beethovenstrasse 21, 8002 Zurich 24/09/2015 Brown-bag Lunch – University of Zurich 12.00 noon – 2.00 p.m. University of Zurich Rämistrasse 71, 8006 Zurich The ordinary gives the world its existence, the extraordinary its value. Oscar Wilde Oscar Wilde (1854 – 1900) was an Irish author, playwright and poet. He was one of the most controversial writers of the early modern period. Wilde wrote witty society comedies and one novel, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”.