Futures Studies Timeline
Compiled by Janna Anderson, Elon University (send suggested additions to andersj@elon.edu)
Early
times
The roots of futures thinking – the imaging in human minds of the future – can be
traced back to the beginnings of human societies. The formalized study of futures
came much later, but it can be said that the most advanced civilizations tended to
project their thinking and utilize basic methods of planning and foresight. Greek
philosopher Plato developed the concept of an ideal society with perfect justice in
"The Republic," and his vision inspired millions of thinkers to imagine the future.
1516
Thomas More publishes "Utopia," based on Plato's "Republic," a future society in
which poverty and misery. "Utopia" is a combination of "eu," meaning good, and
"topos," meaning place – it can also be translated as
"no place." Some readers chose to see More's
imaginary society as a working blueprint for the
future; some say More was writing a satire revealing
England's problems. At any rate since More's story
was published, "utopias" have come to be seen as
positive futures in which all people's needs are met
with happiness and fulfillment. Buckminster Fuller
(photo at right) later (in the 1940s to '80s) proposed a sort of technological
utopianism and set out to create designs for cars and houses that might help lead
to such a utopia.
1845
Scientific American begins publishing articles about
research and its futures implications. It began as a one-page
newsletter that concentrated on inventions for which people
were getting U.S. Patent Office applications – "new
inventions, scientific principles, and curious works." It is
the oldest continuously published magazine in the U.S.
While it is an interdisciplinary publication, there are
literally hundreds if not thousands of discipline-specific
journals in all fields that include some futures articles.
1848
The Communist Manifesto, by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, outlines the
Communist League's purposes and programs, suggesting a working-class
revolution to overthrow the upper class and develop, through planning and shared
governance and resources, a classless society. It has been called one of the most
influential political documents and also one of the most harmful. Vladimir Lenin
led the October Revolution of 1917 in Russia, Joseph Stalin rose to power and
millions were killed in famines, the gulags (prisons), and the Great Purge.
1860s
and
1870s
French writer Jules Verne publishes a series of futuristic novels
with incredible foresight, capturing the fancy of people and
fostering interest in the future. He wrote about space, air, and
underwater transport before means of traveling this way had
been invented. "From the Earth to the Moon" and "Twenty
Thousand Leagues Under the Sea" were two of many such tales.
1872
The American monthly magazine Popular Science is founded,
carrying articles about the future of science and technology aimed at
the general reader. It has carried on solidly over time, giving a broad
audience images of what the future might bring and influencing
futures thinking. It now has 7 million readers.
1893 As part of the 1893 World's Columbian Exposition, 74 prominent Americans
write essays about their expectations for the year 1993. They predict air travel and
elevated trains but fail to foresee the automobile. Many of the predictions are now
laughable, but if you think it's easy guessing 100 years out, give it a try!
1901
H.G. Wells writes "Anticipations of the Reaction of
Mechanical and Scientific Progress Upon Human Life and
Thought" for the British magazine The Fortnightly Review;
he proposed a "science of the future." Wells also wrote
futuristic novels, including "The Time Machine" and "The
War of the Worlds."
Early
1900s
And
WWI
In the years just before, during and after World War I, mobilization efforts led to
futures thinking in institutional structures all over Europe. In addition, the
October Revolution of communists in Russia in 1917 led to the establishment of
the planning group Gosplan (1921), which developed a system of five-year
(1928) and 10-year plans first for Russia and later for the Soviet Union. When the
fascists came to power in Italy from 1922 to 1943, they pursued images of future
national power, territorial expansion, and centralized control over all resources.
1921
Yevgeny Zamyatin, a Russian, wrote the first dystopian novel. An influence on
"1984" and "Brave New World," it shows a future in which the world is one
nation, the One State, populated by people who are numbered instead of named,
whose "devil" is "I" and whose "god" is "We." At the end, the leader stops a
revolution by lobotomizing the narrator, D-503, and all the other numbered souls.
John Stuart Mill appears to have been the first to use the term "dystopia," in 1868.
1929
President Hoover appoints a Research Committee on Social
Trends, headed by William F. Ogburn. It produced the report
"Recent Social Trends in the United States" in 1933. Ogburn
used past statistics to chart trends and then projected them to the
future. His theory emphasized the role of
technologies/inventions. He co-founded the Society for the
Study of Technology; he is a founder of technology assessment,
one of the standard approaches to futures research.
1929 The Great Depression in the U.S. inspires the government under
to
President Franklin D. Roosevelt to undertake a social engineering
1939 plan that includes Social Security and the development of the
Tennessee Valley. Responses to this national emergency are now
seen as key to modern futures studies. Officials analyzed the past
and current situations, projected the future with no intervention,
described alternative futures and likely outcomes, and selected and implemented
policies based on the findings, aiming to the future.
1933
to
1943
and
WW
II
Nazi Germany created a unified, mobilized society in which the
energy of the people was focused on collective goals, creating a
new social order (excluding and even eliminating certain
sectors of society). The first four-year plan was announced in
1933; the Goering Plan in 1936 was comprehensive, including
wage and production controls and even control over working
conditions. World War II forced most leaders all over the globe
to make long-range and short-range plans. After the war,
national planning blossomed everywhere. Capitalists and communists delved into
forecasting work as they never had before, incorporating futures thinking in the
decision-making process.
1939 The New York World's Fair used the theme "The World of Tomorrow" and it
showcased the latest images of the likely future, making a significant impression
on the 25 million visitors who attended it. People waited for hours in line to see
the "Futurama," then enjoyed just a 10-minute ride past this model of the future
U.S., which included 500,000 individually designed houses and 50,000 cars in an
introduction of the idea of a network of superhighways to connect the nation. The
fair also hosted the first World Science Fiction Convention.
1942
Biochemist and science-fiction writer Isaac Asimov
wrote "The Three Laws of Robotics" in his short
story "Runaround": A robot may not injure a human
being; a robot must obey orders except when they
conflict with the first law; a robot must protect its
own existence as long as it does not conflict with the
first or second law. He originated the word
"robotics," his futuristic work was the basis for the later film "I,
Robot," and he was a prolific science writer in addition to being
one of the most influential science-fiction writers of the 20th century.
1943
Macy Conferences on Cybernetics begin.
The meetings of systems thinkers from all
disciplines were held from 1943 through
1954 and worked from the basis of Claude
Shannon's information theory (he is
pictured at left), Warren McCulloch's
work on neural information processing, John von Neumann's
binary systems work and the cybernetics paradigm made
public through the writing of Norbert Wiener (left). Systems theorists study
communications, control, and regulatory feedback in living organisms, machines,
and in other networks, such as organizations.
1940s
to
'60s
After the end of WWII, about 120 new nation-states were created from the former
colonial territories of European nations and the U.S. This nearly tripled the
number of world nation-states and increased interrelationships and potential
subgroups of coalitions, complicating policy and planning and adding more layers
to futures equations and allowing new leaders to postulate new futures.
1946
RAND was created – an acronym standing for Research AND Development as a
think tank by the Army Air Corps and the Douglas Aircraft Company. It produces
written reports, the first concentrating on the future of military technology. By
1970, it was turning out non-military studies, including reports on the potential
benefits of stroke-detection centers and more effective urban hospitals. Over the
years, RAND researchers developed a great deal of the futures studies
methodologies used today, including the Delphi technique, computer simulations.
It now has 1,600 employees in many U.S. and international locations.
1955
The Society for General Systems Research is founded (Stanford, Center for
Advanced Study) – it changed its name to International Society for the Systems
Sciences in 1988. (http://www.isss.org/) Understanding systems science (often
referred to as cybernetics) is important to understanding how futures might
unfold. This group looks at the practical application of systems methodologies to
problem-solving – how living and automated networks function.
Founders of the Society for General Systems Research:
Philip K. Dick writes "Autofac," a science-fiction short story that introduces the
idea of self-replicating machines. Dick, the author of the story that inspired the
film "Blade Runner" is considered to be one of the most prescient science-fiction
futurists. His alternate universes and mind-jogging future scenarios raise issues.
1956
Kenneth Boulding publishes "The Image: Knowledge in Life and Society." The
economist and systems scientist writes that all knowledge is a series of images
and since each individual image is built as a result of all past experiences of the
possessor, knowledge is organic, growing and evolving. He says growth of
knowledge brings order out of chaos. He was a member of Soc. for Gen. Systems
Research. Futures researchers use this idea of "the image" in understanding how
people see the future unfolding.
1959 Richard Feynman, Nobel-winning physicist, envisions nanotechnology in his
seminal talk "There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom."
1960s
Douglas Engelbart, founder of Stanford Research Institute's
Augmentation Research Center, develops a technology
futures theory and the original versions of many computerhuman interface elements that came into use decades later,
including bit-mapped displays, collaboration software,
hypertext, and the computer "mouse." He was an outspoken
advocate over the next 40-plus years for the use of human-computer networks in
solving the world's problems. His philosophy is best expressed in the 1962
research report "Augmenting Human Intellect: A Conceptual Framework."
1960
1961
1962
Theodore J. Gordon and Olaf Helmer collaborate to
develop the Delphi method of futures studies. It
involves getting a group of experts to share their
images of the future over several rounds of
individual questioning that allow them to refine their
answers. Gordon and Helmber did their initial
Delphi work for RAND, analyzing the future of
technological breakthroughs. It was a milestone in
the development of futures studies and helped focus
and galvanize the futures movement. The two men later founded the Institute for
the Future in 1968, looking to forecast trends five to 50 years in the future. Unlike
other such organizations, IFTF doesn't do military research, consulting for other
organizations.
French economist, journalist, and philosopher Bertrand de
Jouvenel and his wife Helene found the Association Internationale
de Futuribles, which still functions today. In France, the word for
futures studies is "futuribles." AIF eventually begins to publish the
futures studies journal Futuribles: Analyse, Prevision, Prospective.
Herman Kahn, a military theorist who worked at RAND,
publishes "On Thermonuclear War," using systems theory and
game theory to make predictions about it and asking
Americans to consider the aftermath of World Wars III
through VIII, which might take place at various times in the
future. Kahn left RAND and founded the Hudson Institute
with Max Singer and Oscar Rubenstein the next year, and by 1970 it had become
a leading futures-research center with 130 full and part-time consultants.
Dutch sociologist Fred L. Polak's "The Image of the Future: Volume I
Enlightening the Past, Orienting the Present, Forecasting the Future" and
"Volume II Iconoclasm of the Images of the Future, Demolition of Culture" are
translated to English. He devoted his life to the future of man and society, and this
was his major work. He says the future images on which a society draws affect
the future direction the society will take, contributing to its rise and/or fall. He
says today's society must "reawaken" its "starving social imagination."
Marshall McLuhan writes "The Gutenberg Galaxy" – about
the impact of phonetic writing and print in transforming
Western and world cultures, including an anticipation of the
impact and power of the Internet. A pioneering look at how
comm. technology changes cognitive organization. He saw
mostly negative future ramifications of the "global village" he
expected it to bring and predicted in this book, "As our senses have gone outside
us, Big Brother goes inside." He also wrote, "There can only be disaster arising
from unawareness of the causalities and effects inherent in our technologies."
Rachel Carson's book "The Silent Spring" raises questions
about the influences of chemical changes introduced by humans
to ecosystems and brings dawning of ecological awareness. Her
work had a significant impact in inspiring environmental futures
studies and the environmental movement in the industrial world.
Prolific science-fiction writer and inventor Arthur
C. Clarke, considered one of the top three sci-fi
writers of the century (along with Isaac Asimov
and Robert A. Heinlein), publishes the non-fiction
work "Profiles of the Future," a collection of his
essays on the future. Clarke was the originator of
the idea of a "space elevator" that could deliver
people and materials to an orbiting space station, making space shuttles obsolete.
He also was one of the first to propose the idea of geostationary satellites as
telecommunications relays (1945). He wrote the book "2001: A Space Odyssey"
while collaborating with director Stanley Kubrick on the film of the same name in
the 1960s. It is a futures fiction classic. Clarke's formulated three "laws" of
prediction: 1) When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is
possible, he is almost certainly right; when he states something is impossible, he
is very probably wrong; 2) The only way of discovering the limits of the possible
is to venture a little way past them into the impossible; 3) Any sufficiently
advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
1963 Ferdinand Lundberg, in his book "The Coming World Transformation," takes a
historical materialist stance, with chapters on population, economics, government,
education. It assumes uniform evolution and says there is no prospect of the rest
of the world catching up industrially to the west in the next 150 years. He says
religion will be superceded and nations will join together to form regional
superstates for some law, etc. It is grounds for stirring debate.
French futurist Bertrand de Jouvenel publishes the book "The Art of Conjecture,"
a key work at the time in the development of modern futures studies. It provided a
rationale for futures thinking, expressing how and why futures studies are vital.
1964 Marshall McLuhan writes that we are driving into the future "looking into the
rear view mirror." In "Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man."
New York World's Fair – the second this century – hosted 51 million paid visits;
about half saw Futurama II, which included a moon base and an underwater hotel.
1965 First session of the Commission on the Year 2000, established
to
by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. It was to
1973 construct hypothetical futures and problems expected in the
year 2000. Futurist Daniel Bell's report on this commission's
work was published as "The Coming of Post-Industrial Society:
A Venture in Social Forecasting" in 1973. The Commission's
activities came at a turning point in the development of futures
studies. The network of futures thinkers had become
internationalized by the mid-'60s, and a significant amount of
the futures work being done extended beyond military concerns.
1966
1967
Hungarian-born Julius Thomas Fraser assembled the
acclaimed series of interdisciplinary articles "The Voices
of Time," and he oversaw 10 additional volumes of "The
Study of Time" series through a group he founded, the
International Society for the Study of Time. His work is
a key influence on thinking about the nature of time. In
some cultures and to some ways of thinking, we cannot
assume the linear procession of past, present, future.
There are varied definitions of "time" and how humans
apparently "move through" it.
James A. Dator teaches one of the first college-level futures courses at Virginia
Tech, and Alvin Toffler teaches one at the New School for Social Research in
New York. By 1973 there were several hundred individual courses somehow tied
to futures studies being taught in various ways at U.S. and Canadian universities.
The identification and study of potential future scenarios and the search for ways
to influence their probability were becoming important social responsibilities.
World Future Society founded by Edward Cornish, "The Futurist"
and "Bulletin" begin publication. WFS is part professional society,
part think tank, and part grassroots non-profit. Cornish went on to
advise three U.S. presidents, and among his futures publications is
"Futuring: The Exploration of the Future," 2005, one of the only
futures textbooks ever published for general education.
"Star Trek" premieres on U.S.
television, presenting to the
masses a number of legitimate
ethical and moral dilemmas likely
to be faced in the future. The
central trio of Kirk, Spock, and
McCoy was modeled on classical
mythological storytelling, but
there was futures thinking applied
to story lines and such concepts as
teleportation and the construction of space vehicles that might reach "warp speed"
are science-based. Product designs in the series are believed to have influenced
the designs of many current technologies, including the tablet PC, cell phones,
and PDAs. The original series spawned four additional live-action TV series,
many films, novels, comics, video games and other materials.
The group that founded the World Futures Studies Federation emerged and began
planning this year – it is a global network including researchers, teachers,
scholars, policy analysts, activists, and others from 60 nations who work to
promote futures education and research. The founding conference of the
organization was held years later, in Paris in 1973. At it, the charter was ratified,
and the official headquarters were established in France. The founding president
was Bertrand de Jouvenel. WFSF has sporadic conferences every few years.
1968
1969
1970
First International Future Research Conference (70
participants from 12 nations), directed by Johan Galtung
founder of the International Peace Research Institute in
Oslo, Norway. Galtung is a futurist who works with the
agenda of fostering world peace. He pointed out that most
futures work up to now had been aimed to serve "military
and related industrial goals," adding that the professional
futurist war managers are people "capable of depriving
humanity of any possible future."
Harold Lasswell and Wendell Bell help found the Yale Collegium
on the Future. A faculty group that fostered futures discussions
with a farther reach, considering that both Lasswell and Bell have
been leaders in the futures studies movement. Bell (in photo at
left) also began teaching the first Yale course with "futures" at its
center this year.
"Futures: The Journal of Forecasting and Planning" begins publication in UK.
This international journal is published six times a year.
Paul R. Ehrlich publishes "The Population Bomb." It
predicts disaster due to the "population explosion,"
projecting mass famine in less-developed nations and the
starvation of "hundreds of millions of people." This type
of scenario is called "Malthusian" in reference to Rev.
Thomas Malthusian's 1798 essay predicting catastrophic
population growth that would outstrip agricultural growth
unless it was controlled. Unlike Malthus, Ehrlich saw no
solution to the problem, however thanks to ag-science
developments food production grew. Starvation has been
a problem, but not in the epic proportions Ehrlich posited. His theory did
influence and help shape futures policies for some time.
The Club of Rome is founded by Italian industrialist Aurelio
Peccei (at right) and Alexander King, the director for Science,
Technology and Education at the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, to study future political issues.
The goal was to alert the world to what they termed the "global
problematique," a cluster of interrelated world problems
including hunger, environmental degradation, violence,
overpopulation, and the alienation of the working classes.
John McHale publishes "The Future of the Future" – he served as director of the
Center for Integrative Studies at SUNY-Binghamton from 1968-78. Brit
McHale's first field of study was the Pop Art movement of the 1960s, he created
"Op Art," and most of Pop Art concepts were first articulated by him. He created
a think tank at Binghamton and developed a futurist philosophy.
American Anthropological Association begins its series of Futuristics Sessions,
1970-1974; Magorah Maruyama and Arthur Harkins are co-chairs.
1971
1972
1976
April 22 is the first celebration of Earth Day and
National Environmental Protection and Environmental
Impact Assessment Act. Sen. Gaylord Nelson and his
staff originated the idea for the effort, but it was a
groundswell of college students on campuses all over
the U.S. who made it a big day, boosted by a Sunday
New York Times article that ran months before, the 20
million organizers basically organized the event
themselves.
Alvin Toffler's "Future Shock" is published and
becomes a best-seller that draws the public to
recognize futures possibilities. It was an
extension of an article he had written for
Playboy magazine. The concept of "future
shock" – too much change in a short period –
resembles the later idea of a technological singularity. Previous
to this book, revered scientist Thomas Kuhn had proposed the
idea of a technological "paradigm shift" to come in the years
ahead – this was a likely influence for Toffler. The book argues
that massive change as we moved away from an industrial society to an
information society would overwhelm people, and he said new social problems
were an early symptom. He also coined the phrase "information overload." His
analysis of this continues in his later books "The Third Wave" and "Powershift."
First World General Assembly, World Future Society in
Washington, D.C. A gathering of researchers, social scientists,
business consultants, teachers and others who consider
themselves to be futurists.
The Club of Rome publishes "Limits to Growth," which sells 30
million copies in 30 translations and predicts that economic
growth cannot continue indefinitely because of limited
resources, especially oil. It echoes some of the concerns of
Thomas Malthus in his 1798 "An Essay on the Principle of
Population." "Limits" used Jay Forrester's (MIT) systemdynamics perspective and projected that unless changes are
made in the next century the death rate will rise, population will
decline, and human life will become shorter and more brutish.
The future, it says, depends on what we do with this information. A second
volume titled "Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update" was published in 2004.
Futurics begins publication. This quarterly journal of futures
research – one of the longest running in print – is published by
the Minnesota Futurists, the first chapter of the World Future
Society. It is an international, refereed journal.
The Future Survey, printed by the World Future Society,
begins publication. It is considered by futurists as one of
the most useful publications ever - a monthly 8-page
review of futures literature from more than a thousand
sources, with a cross-referenced annual. It allows people
to keep up on the futures work being done across all
disciplines.
1977
1978
1980
1982
1983
1984
The Institute for Alternative Futures is founded by Clement Bezold, James Dator,
and Alvin Toffler as a non-profit research and educational organization. It and its
for-profit subsidiary, Alternative Futures Associates, aid organizations and
individuals to work to create preferred futures.
Magorah Maruyama and Arthur Harkins, eds., "Cultures of the Future," 28
pieces, including some classic articles, mostly looking at futures studies from the
anthropologist's perspective.
Jib Fowles, ed., "Handbook of Futures Research," consisted of 41 essays by
leaders in the field of futures studies; topics included history, methods, forecasts
and prospects for the future of futures research.
Anthropologist and futurist R.B. Textor publishes "A Handbook on Ethnographic
Futures Research" 3rd edition. In it, he outlines the Ethnographic Futures Research
method, which involves interviewing people to capture details about their images
of the future.
Alvin Toffler's book "The Third Wave" is released.
The Global Conference on the Future, in Toronto, sponsored by the World Future
Society and the Canadian Association for Futures Studies, draws 5,000
participants from 30 nations.
Futurist John Naisbitt's "Megatrends: Ten New
Directions Transforming Our Lives" becomes a
mainstream bestseller. And he and Toffler are now the
two futurists best known to the general public in the
U.S., thanks to the massive promotion of their bestselling books and their radio and television appearances
in support of them.
CONTACT conferences begin – meeting of nation's foremost scientists, science
fiction writers and artists to exchange ideas, explore possibilities and stimulate
new perspectives about humanity's future.
The Santa Fe Institute is founded by eight scientists (mostly from Los Alamos
National Laboratory) to take an interdisciplinary look at "complexity science," the
study of networks (economies, ant hills, human nervous systems) that are
different but the same in regard to general structures. SFI's research has led to
efforts to create new futures through inventive work such as experiments in the
1980s and 1990s in creating artificial life that models real ecosystems and
organisms. The work really looks at complex systems, and it overlaps with the
ideas behind cybernetics and even ties to chaos theory and catastrophe theory in
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
regard to the fact that scientists are working to find commonalities and detect
predictable patterns in networked interactions.
Futures Research Quarterly replaces the World Future Society Bulletin.
K. Eric Drexler publishes "Engines of Creation." This seminal
nanotechnology book brought form and a fresh look to
famous physicist Richard Feynman's concept that "There's
Plenty of Room at the Bottom." Drexler's book predicts
molecular manufacturing for large-scale fabrication, promotes
space exploration, and contains his statement that
uncontrollable, self-replicating machines of the future might
possibly produce what is now called the "grey-goo scenario."
With this book, Drexler founded the first group for preparing
the world for the ethical questions tied to nanotechnology; he
asked the publisher to include an address for the Foresight
Institute, a group that did not yet exist. It began when the book was released.
Drexler is no longer directly tied to the group, which is now called the
Foresight Nanotech Institute. Since then the Center for Responsible
Nanotechnology and the Center on Nanotechnology and Society are among the
similar groups of nano-future concern that have been formed.
Carnegie Mellon Robotics Professor Hans Moravec
publishes "Mind Children." In this and his other books,
including "Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent
Mind," he predicts that accelerating technology will
likely allow the development of robots much more
intelligent than humans by around 2030 to 2050. At
some point in their development, he says, these robots,
are not likely to need humans.
Futurist John L. Petersen founds The Arlington Institute, a non-profit research
consultancy that specializes in influencing rapid, positive change in a world of
accelerating choices.
Alvin Toffler's book "Powershift" is released.
David Ashford and Patrick Collins write "Your
Spaceflight Manual," a non-fiction look at the future
space-tourism industry. It analyzes safety, costs and
benefits, and the potential market for space tours, also
including designs for space vehicles and stations to
support such an industry. The book includes a
timeline with predictions that outline the development
of space tourism by applying the lessons learned in
the development of human flight up to this point. It
predicted that the first space tourist would fly in 2000,
which was true when multimillionaire Dennis Tito
paid for a trip on a Soyuz spacecraft.
Ray Kurzweil's "The Age of Intelligent
Machines" is published. It was the
scientist/inventor's first book, and it won
the Most Outstanding Computer Science
Book of 1990, awarded by the Association
of American Publishers. Kurzweil is in the
National Inventors Hall of Fame for his
work with speech and musical synthesis,
font-scanning character recognition systems, reading
technology, and medical simulation. He won the 1999
National Medal of Technology. His research has led him to be a well-informed
technology futurist, and he believes the technological singularity may take place
in only a few decades. www.kurzweilai.net is an incredible futures resource.
1990s
UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization) begins a futures "clearinghouse"
and begins to publish futures-oriented documents,
including UNESCO Future Scan.
1991
1993
1995
Futures studies has grown, as consulting firms and individual consultants are
hired by government and industry. The World Future Society's 1991 Futures
Research Directory includes 1,200 people who are professionally involved in
futures work. Nearly all corporations now have a formalized system of long-term
planning in-house or they outsource futures research to a consulting firm.
Wired magazine makes its debut in March. It reports on how
technology is expected to effect culture, the economy, and
politics. It's editorial stance was inspired by Canadian
communications theorist Marshall McLuhan, who is
considered the publication's "patron saint." It has been a rich
source of futures articles, and while it often seems to
embrace techno-utopianism it also carries the points of view
of various tech critics. Two of its most famous and oftenquoted contributors from its initial years were John Perry Barlow and Nicholas
Negroponte, both advocates of the positive future impact of an open internet.
Wired magazine editor Kevin Kelly publishes "Out of Control: The New Biology
of Machines, Social Systems and the Economic World."
He explains how self-sustaining systems (from living
wetlands to computerized simulations) mean to the future.
He posits that as we make machines and institutions more
complex we have to make them more biological to
manage them. He sees the blending of biology into the
future of technology hardware and software. He says, "in
order to harvest the organic power of our machines, we
have to … relinquish some control." This was one of three books to inspire the
actors in the film series "The Matrix." The others were: Jean Baudrillard's
"Simulacra and Simulation," "Introducing Evolutionary Psychology" by Dylan
Evans.
1996
1998
1999
2000
Ted Kaczynski's 35,000-word essay "Industrial Society and Its
Future" is published in the New York Times and Washington
Post. (It is also known as the "Unabomber Manifesto.") It is
the work of a futurist who became so concerned about the
future that he decided that violence was the only way to draw
attention to the serious issues that lie ahead. He is the most
famous anti-technology anarchist of modern times. He
protested in anonymity for years, killing three and wounding
29 in an 18-year mail-bombing campaign that finally ended
when the newspapers printed his essay and his brother recognized his writing
style. He was sentenced to life in prison with no parole.
Yale University Futurist Wendell Bell publishes the futures
studies classics "The Foundations of Futures Studies"
Volumes I and II. These are used primarily in graduate
schools and by futures professionals; they include a detailed
explanation of the reasons futures studies are vital, a history
of futures studies, an outline of methodologies. The pair of
books went into a second printing with a new preface in 2005.
Bell says futurists try to illuminate "possible futures, probable
futures and preferred futures."
David Brin predicts in his book "The Transparent Society" that privacy will
disappear as low-cost surveillance, communication, and database technology
erode and eventually make it vanish. He argues that this can be good if the
surveillance is equal for all and the public has the same access to everyone's data
as the government and industry do. In later studies, many technology experts
predict that the upper classes will find ways to keep a veil of privacy drawn over
their personal activities and over government and some elite industries while the
general public will be exposed.
Ray Kurzweil publishes "The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers
Exceed Human Intelligence," a bestselling continuation of his study of the likely
interlacing futures of humans and machines as technological change accelerates
and humans evolve.
"First Shot in Artilect War Fired," a debate in Zurich
between Hugo de Garis, an AI scientist and supporter of
building artificially intelligent life forms (artilects), and
Kevin Warwick, a professor of cybernetics who believes it is
too dangerous to create such devices, regarding the future
domination of earth by intelligent machines. De Garis has
projected that there may be a "gigadeath war – billions of
dead" between Terrans (those against highly developed AL and AI) and Cosmists
(those who support the building and proliferation of artificial life forms even
though they could likely replace and completely displace humans).
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"Will Spiritual Robots Replace Humanity by 2100?" – this
symposium at Stanford featured futurist Ray Kurzweil,
roboticist Hans Moravec and Sun Microsystems co-founder
Bill Joy, and it kicked off a debate about the possibilities of
a positive or a negative technological future. Joy writes the
much-talked-about essay "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us"
for Wired magazine, arguing that technological advances
are threatening humanity and requesting more ethical debate
and deep thought about the potential futures ahead.
tt30, an anticipatory-thinking think tank for people around the age of 30 is started
by the Club of Rome. (http://www.clubofrome.org/tt30/index.php)
Paul Raskin publishes the 99-page essay "Great Transition: The Promise and
Lure of Times Ahead," predicting three scenarios: conventional worlds,
barbarization, great transitions – hoping for a sustainable future in the latter form.
British Physicist Sir Martin Rees publishes "Our Final Hour: A
Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error,
and Environmental Disaster Threaten
Humankind's Future in This Century –
On Earth and Beyond." He says the
Earth and human survival are under
great threat from the effects of modern
technology, discussing the range of
risks and estimating that the probability
of extinction before 2100 AD is around 50 percent, based
on the potential for a purposeful or accidental release of destructive technology
(i.e. nanotechnology or terrorist violence). He says human expansion into space is
the way to minimize or overcome these issues, and he advocates control over
worldwide scientific research.
Ray Kurzweil publishes the massive futures studies book
"The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend
Biology." In it, he says technology is progressing toward a
singularity at an exponential rate and that humans can and
will take positive advantage, and our technology will not
overcome and replace us but instead will be utilized to
improve and extend our lives, possibly forever. He
explains how nanobots will be able to repair and replace
any part of the body that wears out.
James Lovelock publishes "Revenge of Gaia: Why the Earth is Fighting Back and
How We Can Save Humanity," stating we are past the time for sustainable
development and proposing a sustainable retreat from a coming "climate storm."
E.O. Wilson writes "The Creation: An Appeal to Save Life on Earth." The famed
entomologist and humanist thinker appeals to leaders of science and religion to
unite to understand how all living things are made of fragile, intricate webs.
Refutes the idea that humans can recreate these complex systems.