Bellagio Workshop
Synthesis Report
TOWA RD
A GLOBAL
ACT ION
NETWORK
FOR T HE
F ISH FOOD
SYST EM
C ONT ENT S
Page
01
T H E D IA LO G U E P R O C E SS 4
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KEY I SS U E S A N D E M E R G I N G AC T I O N A R EA S 6
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KEY U N C E RTA I NT I E S A N D P OSS I B L E F UT U R E S 04
O U R
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N E XT ST E PS 22
WO R KS H O P PA RT I C I PA NT S 23
P R E F E R R E D F UT U R E
8
20
Fishing for a Future is an initiative that brings
stakeholders together. Its purpose is to support
collective creation of time-bound solutions for
the problems facing the fish food system.
This report describes the outcome of the
initiative’s first global workshop, which was held
in October 2013 at The Rockefeller Foundation
Bellagio Center on Lake Como, Italy. The workshop
brought together 14 high-level representatives from
the private sector, nongovernmental organizations
and philanthropic communities.
T H E O BJ EC T IV E S O F T H E WO R KS H O P:
I
Develop a set of global scenarios for the fish food system
based on identified issues and global and sector-specific
change drivers.
II
Identify a common set of aspirational goals for the
fish food system by 2030.
III
Identify the synergies, gaps and new opportunities for
collective action among actors in the fish food system.
3
T HE
DIA LOGUE
PROC ESS
“I found that the workshop, by bringing together
diverse stakeholders from the different sections of the
fishery industry spectrum, was very enlightening
and extremely stimulating. Our local and regional
challenges no longer look as daunting when global
industry thought leaders and actors offer insights
and ideas that place these problems and opportunities
into a more systemic and global perspective.”
JA MES T. MOV IC K
Director General, Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency
Solomon Islands
4
The dialogue in Bellagio unfolded
along a four-step journey.
KEY ISSUES
A ND EMERGING
ACT ION A REA S
First, participants examined their top-of-mind issues
and explored differences in the way they framed and
prioritized them.
KEY
UNC ERTA INT IES
A ND POSSIBLE
F UT URES
They then developed a shared view of possible futures for
the fish food system by analyzing known change drivers
and reflecting on the key uncertainties the system faces.
OUR PREF ER RED
F UT URE
NEXT ST EPS
Next, participants discussed the most desirable future
for the system and pathways for achieving it. This was a
pivotal step in the dialogue that cumulated in a shared
vision and overarching goals for 2030.
Finally, participants reflected on the next steps needed to
overcome the current fragmentation of effort and realize
the vision they had identified.
5
B E L LAG I O WO R K S H O P – SY NT H ES IS R E PO RT
KEY ISSUES AND EMERGING ACT ION AREAS
With background provided by a series of Fishing for a Future briefing
papers, participants reflected on the key issues currently faced by the
fish food system. The diversity of views concerning current high-priority
challenges suggested a somewhat fragmented issue landscape.
ISSUES
P R IVAT E S EC T O R
STA KE HO L D E RS
PO L ICY
STA KE HO L D E RS
NGO/P H I LA NT H RO P IC S EC T O R
Main focus: Improving sector
performance
Main focus: Improving sector
governance in equitable ways
Main focus: None – A diverse
and interconnected issue set
Example issues:
Example issues:
Example issues:
Lack of innovation and innovative products
Lack of capacity at the local
community, national government
and regional fishery management
organization level
Often poor fishery and ecosystem
governance at local levels
Poor mechanisms to hold
bad-apple industry players
accountable and to more effectively govern underperformers
Lack of governance structure
among NGOs, with lack of coordination between initiatives
and conflicts due to competing
agendas
Lack of a shared understanding
of the term sustainability among
players in the value system and
across geographies as a prerequisite for aligned action
6
Inadequate approaches to
measure and manage the longterm value creation and equitable
distribution of benefits between
fish stock resource owners and
other players along value chains
Inadequate approaches and data
for measuring and managing fish
stock status across all key regions
Inadequate data and data
management; e.g., population
data for fish stock assessments
and market data, especially for
small-scale market players
Often limited multistakeholder
engagements as a way to improve local governance systems,
especially to secure the future
of small-scale fisheries in developing countries (e.g., access to
income and nutrition)
I nsufficient efforts to improve
waste management, traceability
and transparency across the
value system
Four common
action areas emerged.
ACT ION A REAS
1
2
3
4
Improve the empirical analytical
framework for describing the
fish food system to provide new
insights into performance and
leverage points and to guide
long-term objectives.
Enhance approaches for defining
and managing equitable value
creation and distribution across
geographies and actors along the
entire value system.
Enhance approaches for managing
the environmental footprint and
sustainability of the aquaculture
sector.
Build and develop capacity across
stakeholder groups in the fish food
system.
This diversity
of views and
the areas of
issue convergence provided
the backdrop
for developing
a set of future
scenarios.
7
B E L LAG I O WO R K S H O P – SY NT H ES IS R E PO RT
KEY UNC ERTA INT IES A ND
POSSIBLE F UT URES
KEY
U N C E RTA I NT I E S
To develop a plausible set of scenarios, participants identified the
key uncertainties they felt most
strongly about. These fell into
two categories – those external
to the fish food system, and
those within it.
External
to the fish food sector
> The trajectory of economic growth
and the openness of global markets:
Will we see robust growth and growing
openness of markets, or will the
global economy stall and protectionism
prevail?
> Climate change impacts and other
environmental pressures:
Will climate change and environmental
degradation fulfill our worst fears, or
will we find ways to overcome these
problems?
“What might
be the state
of the fish
food system
by 2030?”
Within
the fish food sector
> Our ability to address deficiencies in
wild capture fisheries governance:
Will we see increased overexploitation
of fisheries, or will effective governance
become the norm?
> Sustainable aquaculture growth:
Can aquaculture produce enough
fish while at the same time satisfying
sustainability and equity criteria?
8
P OSS I B L E F UT U R E S
Located across our uncertainty dimensions,
five story lines emerged:
EDEN
E M PT Y N ET S
LOST
O P P O RT U N IT Y
The Decline of Fisheries
and Rise of Aquaculture
-
F I S H F O R T H E G O DS
-
ECONOMIC GROW T H A ND
OPENNESS OF MA R KET S
LOST O P P O RT U N IT Y
A Failure to Grow
Aquaculture and Fisheries
for All
H OT WAT E R
-
EDEN
+
ECONOMIC GROW T H A ND
OPENNESS OF MA R KET S
C LIMAT E C HA NGE A ND
E NV IRONME NTA L IMPAC T S
The Decline of Aquaculture
and Rise of Fisheries for
the Wealthy
C LIMAT E C HA NGE A ND
E NV IRONME NTA L IMPAC T S
+
An Ideal Future
E M PT Y
N ET S
+
F ISH FOR
T H E G O DS
+
+
-
-
H OT WAT E R
Failure of the
Fish Food System
-
Wild capture
Aquaculture
9
B E L LAG I O WO R K S H O P – SY NT H ES IS R E PO RT
EDEN
A N IDEA L F UT URE
B O U N DA RY
CO N D IT I O N S:
>
Strong economic growth
with open markets
>
Benign climate change and
environmental impacts on
the fish food sector
>
Effective public and private
governance of the wild
capture fishery sector
>
High productivity and
output by the aquaculture
sector
C LIMAT E C HA NGE A ND
ENV IRONMENTA L IMPAC T S
10
Through effective governance, transfer of best
practices and technology, and well-targeted
investments, fish production has increased
remarkably: Wild capture output has risen by
10 percent and the rate of growth in the aquaculture sector has returned to the levels seen in the
1990s. High demand for fish, driven by robust
economic growth and the openness of markets,
is met by sustainable supply.
This outcome does not occur at the expense of the
environment. To the contrary, educated consumers
in all fish food markets value sustainability. Standards and certification play a major role. The sector
follows a model that efficiently uses underutilized
fish, and there is a significant reduction in postharvest loss. A global standard for sustainable
+
+
ECONOMIC GROW T H A ND
OPENNESS OF MA R KET S
In 2030, the impacts of climate
change have not materialized, and
challenges such as exhausted marine
ecosystems and unsustainable
aquaculture have been addressed.
In addition, the fish food system has
delivered significant development
impacts and food security benefits
to vulnerable people.
+
aquaculture is employed worldwide by the vast
majority of producers and is valued by retailers
and consumers alike.
Demand has been increasing at stable rates on
the back of solid global growth and effective
trade policies. Given the responsiveness of
supply from both wild catch and aquaculture,
prices are stable and value creation among the
players in the system is equitably distributed.
A collective action effort by key stakeholders
across governments, NGOs and the private
sector has produced governance mechanisms
that not only value fish as a resource but also
balance the needs of all across the value chain,
enabling them to earn fair returns for their
efforts. Given the win-win situation, all actors
have an incentive to make the system operate
sustainably. This leads to an efficient use of
resources and stems the tide of resource degradation.
are operating efficiently and earn fair returns
on their capital. Impacts on the environment
are well within the ability of ecosystems to
absorb them.
Everybody wins: Fish stocks are managed
sustainably, and all actors in the system earn
fair economic returns. Additionally, potential
unemployment of small-scale fisheries has
been avoided and turned into new and higherpaying jobs. Value in the system is equitably
distributed, and food security needs are met.
High growth in the fish food sector allows
both small-scale fishers and farmers to
participate in this positive development. Food
and nutrition security is improved, and new
job opportunities outside the sector can be
found. Industrial-scale farmers and harvesters
11
B E L LAG I O WO R K S H O P – SY NT H ES IS R E PO RT
EMPT Y NET S
T HE DEC LINE OF F ISHERIES A ND RISE OF AQUAC ULT URE
B O U N DA RY
CO N D IT I O N S:
>
Strong economic growth
with open markets
>
Severe climate change and
environmental impacts on
the fish food sector
>
Ineffective governance of
the wild capture fishery
sector globally
>
High productivity and output of the aquaculture sector
C LIMAT E C HA NGE A ND
ENV IRONMENTA L IMPAC T S
ECONOMIC GROW T H A ND
OPENNESS OF MA R KET S
-
12
+
-
+
In 2030, the confluence of severe climate change impacts, environmental
degradation, stable demand for
fish and a largely ineffective global
governance system for wild capture
fisheries has resulted in massive
overexploitation and the collapse
of many fish stocks.
Infrastructure development, water abstraction and
other environmental pressures have also severely
compromised the productivity of the world’s
freshwater fisheries, and highly compromised
freshwater fisheries production.
Because early signs for this were already visible by
2020, concerted efforts by governments, industry,
capital markets and NGOs have driven the aquaculture sector to unprecedented heights. In 2020, a
globally shared agenda to avoid mass malnutrition
due to the possible collapse of wild fish supply was
adopted.
Governments, with immediate support from all
other stakeholder groups, have reached global
agreements on standards for aquaculture production and quality to minimize environmental
impacts.
NGOs and industry have been involved in
these negotiations from the start to make
them meaningful from their perspective.
Simultaneously, governments – in a rare
display of efficiency – were able to reduce to
a minimum red tape and negotiation tactics.
As with the Montreal Protocol, the world
came together to act.
increasingly to employment opportunities in
other industry sectors.
For all, however, it has become clear: The old
days of a man providing for his family from
the sea are gone.
In 2030, 80 percent of global fish food supply
comes from a well-managed and innovative
aquaculture sector. Production efficiency is
high and environmental impact is as low as
possible. The concerted efforts of all stakeholders behind this success have given
confidence to capital markets for continued
capital flows into the sector. Aquaculture
technology innovation labs and research
networks around the globe drive the innovation agenda, yielding yet higher promises for
efficiency gains. The world has produced the
Empty Nets in the nick of time.
Thanks to targeted transition programs,
the impacts of very low catch levels for smallscale fisheries that fell below subsistence could
be buffered for most. Many families could
find employment in the growing aquaculture
sector, and the younger generation transitions
13
B E L LAG I O WO R K S H O P – SY NT H ES IS R E PO RT
F ISH FOR T HE GODS
T HE DEC LINE OF AQUAC ULT URE A ND RISE
OF F ISHERIES FOR T HE W EA LT HY
B O U N DA RY
CO N D IT I O N S:
>
Strong economic growth
with open markets
>
evere climate change and
S
environmental impacts on
the fish food sector
>
ffective governance of the
E
wild capture fishery sector
globally
>
ow productivity and output
L
of the aquaculture sector
C LIMAT E C HA NGE A ND
ENV IRONMENTA L IMPAC T S
ECONOMIC GROW T H A ND
OPENNESS OF MA R KET S
-
14
+
-
+
In 2030, a remarkably effective governance system is guiding the wild
capture fishery sector. Wild catch
output has increased moderately,
and effective fish stock assessment,
monitoring and fishery management
practices have been put in place, to
maximize chances of sustaining fish
stocks as a valuable resource for
future generations.
As a consequence of the effective governance
systems, data availability and transparency in
the system is very high, with illegal, unreported
and unregulated fishing, or IUU, falling to an
all-time low.
Conversely, the aquaculture sector has been
troubled by fragmentation and national interests.
In particular in China, emerging Africa and
Southeast Asia, the sector has in many places lost
out to competing interests for land, water and
employment from other industrial sectors where
higher value creation is possible. Investments
into the sector have stalled and environmental
standards have failed to materialize. To feed the
growing population with animal-source food,
poultry has seen explosive growth, despite
fairly regular bird flu scares. Simultaneously,
investments into technologies that promise
to grow meat in the Petri dish have seen
increased government attention and private
equity investments.
This pronounced dichotomy in the sector
occurs in an environment of high growth with
open markets, but with severe climate and
environmental impacts. Demand for highquality food is strong and trade practices are
in place to enable fish exports and imports
without significant barriers.
At the same time, supply of wild-catch fish,
while managed as carefully as possible,
is suppressed by ocean acidification and
compromised freshwater production as a
result of infrastructure development, water
abstraction and other environmental impacts.
farmed fish, farmed poultry and increasingly
factory meat.
To mitigate price hikes, the wild capture sector
sees an accelerated move of processing facilities to low-cost countries, to keep costs at the
lowest possible level.
Coastal communities and small-scale fisheries
have an unexpected choice: serve local markets
or benefit from the wild fish price premiums
by exporting and in turn use proceeds to buy
cheap chicken or other animal-source foods.
This choice creates significant tension in
coastal communities as traditional practices
and habits clash with the obvious economic
benefits that can be gained, at the expense of
the traditional dietary preferences.
The fish food market sees a bifurcation of its
products: lower-price aquaculture products,
requiring explicit labeling as farmed fish, and
high-end wild capture fish as a luxury good
with high price premiums. For wild capture
fish, eco-labeling and environmental standards
are very important to defend the price premium of wild fish’s natural nutrition against
15
B E L LAG I O WO R K S H O P – SY NT H ES IS R E PO RT
LOST OPPORT UNIT Y
A FA ILURE TO GROW AQUAC ULT URE
A ND F ISHERIES FOR A LL
B O U N DA RY
CO N D IT I O N S:
>
Weak economic growth and
protectionism
>
enign climate change and
B
environmental impacts on
the fish food sector
>
I neffective governance of the
wild capture fishery sector
globally
>
ow productivity and output
L
of the aquaculture sector
C LIMAT E C HA NGE A ND
ENV IRONMENTA L IMPAC T S
+
-
-
16
ECONOMIC GROW T H A ND
OPENNESS OF MA R KET S
In 2030, the global economy enters
its fourth year of flat growth – the
second flat growth cycle in the last
decade. To battle unemployment
and defend against extreme nationalistic forces, governments around
the globe retreat to imposing trade
barriers to protect their economies.
Against all historical data and arguments from
industry that openness of food markets is the
best solution to feed the world, the mindset of
food self-sufficiency becomes the prevailing
narrative.
In consequence, fish food trade hits a low point.
Those in developing countries that still rely on
catching their own fish as food are relatively
better off; for consumers in richer countries,
fish food choices are now very limited.
These developments take place in a context
where climate change and environmental
impacts have been tackled quite effectively.
Governance wins and effective collective action
on managing fish food ecosystems and reducing
environmental impacts of production around
the globe have surprised even the greatest
optimists.
Two missed opportunities characterize the
situation: First, as a consequence of low
economic growth and governments scrambling
to provide employment, low-cost manufacturing, industrial parks and low-cost urban developments have outcompeted the aquaculture
sector in terms of resources and investments.
Investor interest into aquaculture has
fallen – the sector remains too fragmented,
with profitability and growth rates low as a
result of sharply reduced trade and local
consumption by relatively poor consumers.
Those few developing countries that have
held on to making bets on aquaculture as a
driver of economic growth have now fallen
behind. Most of what is produced domestically
is consumed domestically – this must be done
at the lowest possible prices. As a result,
environmental standards in aquaculture failed
to materialize fully and the sector is seeing
a resurgence of criticism by environmental
NGOs.
chains shorten and nationalize for low-value
fish; higher-quality products enjoy price premiums in wealthy consumer markets, albeit
with low volumes. Those that have access to
wild fish resources benefit; others must switch
to chicken as a substitute. Poor consumers
who are unable to catch fish themselves or
provide the means for substitution suffer the
most, with malnutrition becoming even more
widespread than before. Employment in the
large-scale fish food sector reaches an all-time
low, with catch and processing capacities being
sharply reduced. Some argue that scrapping
vessels and fleets that have far exceeded their
economic lifetime is long overdue.
Second, governance of wild catch fisheries,
besides climate change adaptation, is largely
ineffective. Fish catch volumes do not
increase, despite the ecosystems providing
the potential for doing so sustainably. IUU is
far exceeding historical levels of 2013. Given
low trade volumes, wild catch fish food supply
17
B E L LAG I O WO R K S H O P – SY NT H ES IS R E PO RT
HOT WAT E R
FA I LURE OF T HE F ISH FOOD SYST EM
B O U N DA RY
CO N D IT I O N S:
>
Weak economic growth and
protectionism
>
evere climate change and
S
environmental impacts on
the fish food sector
>
I neffective governance of the
wild capture fishery sector
globally
ow productivity and output
L
of the aquaculture sector
-
-
-
18
Continued fragmentation of the governance
system persists, and well-meant efforts to
reform the governance landscape are poorly
aligned and ineffective. In particular, aquaculture fails to deliver on its promise of feeding
2 billion more consumers.
Efforts to raise the standards of poor-performing producers to average levels have been unsuccessful, environmental costs surge, and bad
apples in the wild catch sector and in aquaculture production are still not held sufficiently
accountable. IUU is rampant, and equitable
distribution of benefits along the value system
is a crashed hope for the disadvantaged poor.
ECONOMIC GROW T H A ND
OPENNESS OF MA R KET S
C LIMAT E C HA NGE A ND
ENV IRONMENTA L IMPAC T S
>
By 2030, the technological and
governance innovation needed to
sustain production growth in both
aquaculture and wild capture
fisheries does not materialize.
These internal deficiencies have been exacerbated by external trends. Climate change is
hitting an ill-prepared sector. Together with
strong protectionist tendencies as the result
of national food security agendas and stalling
global economic growth, the fish food system
fails to provide food for all. Weak governance
systems and poor consumers scrambling for
food supply – thus not valuing eco-labels or
standards – are resulting in the sector exploiting the last natural resources, causing massive
environmental degradation.
A downward spiral of poor system productivity and output, an eroding resource base,
food insecurity for the poor, skyrocketing
prices for fish for the rich, and failing economic
returns for industrial-scale players result in
malnutrition in developing countries depending on fish and bankruptcy of industrial players
serving markets in the developed world.
19
B E L LAG I O WO R K S H O P – SY NT H ES IS R E PO RT
OUR PREF ERRED
F UT URE
Capturing their vision in the phrase “Together, producing
more and better,” participants concluded that coordinated
and aligned collective action among stakeholders will be key.
Without alignment, we will be unable to create a positive
future in which we meet the world’s growing demand
and need for fish in ways that are sustainable over the
long term.
“Often do the spirits
of great events
stride on before
the events, and in
today already
walks tomorrow.”
Friedrich Schiller (1759-1805)
20
Our goal:
“Produce more fish to feed people while
distributing the benefits of value creation more
fairly and limiting the environmental footprint
of the fish food system.”
A V EHIC LE TO HELP MA KE T HIS HA PPEN
Having identified a preferred future, participants were asked
what might serve as an enabler to achieve it.
After deliberating on this question, there emerged strong interest
from all stakeholder groups in establishing a multistakeholder
Fishing for a Future platform.
Possible platform or governance functions identified include:
Facilitating multistakeholder dialogue to develop a collective
voice and mobilize collective action around shared targets at
both global and regional levels.
Supporting development of a shared and legitimized analytical
base to stimulate and align action and track progress.
Fostering thought leadership on key issues for the
fish food system.
Identifying gaps in current efforts to address systemic
challenges and foster efforts to fill them.
21
B E L LAG I O WO R K S H O P – SY NT H ES IS R E PO RT
NEXT ST EPS
A guided, data-driven collective effort will require a
secretariat to drive the analytical work and prepare and
facilitate global and regional stakeholder engagements.
I N T H E L I G HT O F T H I S CO N C LUS I O N,
S EV E R A L N E XT ST E PS W E R E I D E NT I F I E D:
F I R ST, strategies must be adopted that ensure much broader participation and stakeholder engagement in shaping the Fishing for a Future agenda than has been possible
to date. Immediate next steps will include socializing and seeking feedback on the
conclusions in this report and working to ensure that this initiative complements and
extends current efforts.
S ECO N D, an analytical framework to operationalize shared goals is needed. This
framework must provide the following:
1) Quantitative targets that specify these goals.
2) Specific levers and pathways for how these goals can be achieved.
3) A monitoring and evaluation system for measuring and managing progress
against goal achievement along these pathways.
The starting points for an analytical base that can frame a global action agenda will
be a preliminary estimate of how much fish the world will need to meet dietary needs
in 2030 and an indicative overview for the pathways that could be employed. To this
must be added an outline of how an M&E system might be constructed and operated.
T H E S E I NT E R I M O UT P UT S must then be assessed and discussed among stakeholders at both global and regional levels to arrive at a shared long-term goal and
fairly balance all stakeholder interests.
F I NA L LY, there was agreement that continuing the global discussion together with
cascading the Fishing for a Future dialogue into the main fishing and aquaculture
regions had considerable value. In 2014 we will seek to prepare such a global
discussion around developing a shared set of system goals for 2030 and M&E frameworks, as well as undertaking regional dialogues in the Pacific and Asia.
22
WORKSHOP PA RT IC IPA NT S
F I S H I N G F UT U R E .O RG/ WO R K S H O P S2013
JIM CA NNON
JA M E S T. M OV I C K
CEO
Sustainable Fisheries Partnership
USA
Director General
Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency
Solomon Islands
D R . JA SO N C LAY
N G J O O S IA N G
Senior Vice President, Markets
World Wildlife Fund
USA
Vice - Chairman & Managing Director
Pacific Andes Group
China
D R . C H R I ST O P H E R D E LGA D O
KLA US N I E LS E N
Strategy and Policy Adviser
Agriculture and Environmental Services
World Bank
USA
CEO
Espersen
Denmark
D R . C R I ST I NA R U M BA IT I S D E L R I O
P ET E R HA J I P I E R I S
Chief Technical Sustainability
and External Affairs Officer
lglo Foods Group
United Kingdom
SA UT H UTAGA LU N G
Director General
Fisheries Product Processing and Marketing
Indonesia
A R N I MAT H I E S E N
Assistant Director - General,
Fisheries and Aquaculture FAO
Italy
L I SA A . M O NZÓN
Program Officer, Marine Fisheries
Packard Foundation
USA
Senior Associate Director
The Rockefeller Foundation
USA
D R . MA RY T U R N I PS E E D
Fellow
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
USA
J OS E V I L LA LO N
Corporate Sustainability Director
Nutreco
The Netherlands
J O HÁ N H . W I L L IA M S
Specialist Director
Department for Fisheries and Aquaculture
Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs
Norway
FAC ILITATORS
D R . ST E P H E N J. HA L L
A N D R EA S SC HA F F E R
Director General
WorldFish
Malaysia
Sustainability Director
The Earth Observatory of Singapore
Singapore
23
F I S H E R I E S A N D AQ UAC U LT U R E
I N T H E 21ST C E NT U RY:
A N I N IT IAT IV E F O R G LO BA L AC T I O N
I N IT IAT IV E S EC R ETA R IAT:
Dr. Stephen J. Hall
WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia
Email: s.hall@cgiar.org
Andreas Schaffer
The Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore
Email: a.schaffer@ntu.edu.sg
W W W. F I S H I N G F UT U R E .O R G
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