Q3 2011
www.businessmonitor.com
UNiteD aRaB eMiRates
oil & Gas Report
INCLUDES BMI'S FORECASTS
ISSN 1748-4332
Published by Business Monitor International Ltd.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
OIL & GAS REPORT
Q3 2011
INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2020
Part of BMI's Industry Report & Forecasts Series
Published by: Business Monitor International
Copy deadline: July 2011
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
CONTENTS
Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 7
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 9
United Arab Emirates Political SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................. 9
United Arab Emirates Economic SWOT .............................................................................................................................................................. 10
United Arab Emirates Business Environment SWOT ........................................................................................................................................... 11
UAE Energy Market Overview ....................................................................................................................... 12
Regional Energy Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 14
Oil Supply And Demand............................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) .................................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) ....................................................................................................................................................... 16
Oil: Downstream ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)............................................................................................................................................. 17
Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) ....................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) .......................................................................................................................................................... 19
Liquefied Natural Gas ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)............................................................................................................................................... 20
Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 21
Middle East Region................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Composite Scores................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating .................................................................................................................................. 21
Upstream Scores .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.................................................................................................................................... 22
UAE Upstream Rating – Overview ...................................................................................................................................................................... 23
UAE Upstream Rating – Rewards........................................................................................................................................................................ 23
UAE Upstream Rating – Risks ............................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Downstream Scores ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating ............................................................................................................................... 24
UAE Downstream Rating – Overview .................................................................................................................................................................. 25
UAE Downstream Rating – Rewards ................................................................................................................................................................... 25
UAE Downstream Rating – Risks ........................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Business Environment .................................................................................................................................. 26
Legal Framework...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Intellectual Property Rights ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Corruption/Red Tape ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26
Physical Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 27
Labour Force ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28
Foreign Investment Policy ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 29
Foreign Trade Regime .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 30
Tax Regime ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Security Risk ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 33
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Oil And Gas Reserves ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Oil Supply And Demand............................................................................................................................................................................................ 33
Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
LNG .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Refining And Oil Products Trade .............................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Revenues/Import Costs.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Table: UAE Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts ................................................................................................................................. 37
Other Energy ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 38
Table: UAE Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts ............................................................................................................................... 40
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ..................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook .............................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................ 41
Oil Refineries ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Table: Refineries In The UAE .............................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Oil Pipelines ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43
Gas Storage Facilities............................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
LNG .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Table: LNG Export Terminals in the UAE ........................................................................................................................................................... 44
Gas Pipelines ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 44
Macroeconomic Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 46
Table: United Arab Emirates – Economic Activity .............................................................................................................................................. 47
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................. 48
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE’s Oil And Gas Sector .............................................................................................. 49
Overview/State Role .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 49
Licensing And Regulation .................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Government Policy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 50
International Energy Relations ............................................................................................................................................................................ 50
Table: Key Upstream Players .............................................................................................................................................................................. 52
Table: Key Downstream Players ......................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Company Monitor ........................................................................................................................................... 53
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) ........................................................................................................................................................... 53
Dolphin Energy......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Emirates General Petroleum Corporation (Emarat)................................................................................................................................................. 61
Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) ................................................................................................................................................................. 63
ExxonMobil............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65
BP – Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
Rosneft – Summary .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 68
Total – Summary .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 68
ConocoPhillips – Summary.................................................................................................................................................................................. 69
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................. 69
Korea National Oil Corporation – Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 70
Dana Gas – Summary .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Occidental Petroleum – Summary........................................................................................................................................................................ 71
Japan Oil Development Company (JODCO) – Summary .................................................................................................................................... 71
Cosmo Oil – Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 72
Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) – Summary................................................................................................................................. 72
CNPC – Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 72
RAK Petroleum – Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................. 73
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ............................................................................................... 74
Regional Oil Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 74
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) .................................................................................................................................................... 74
Regional Oil Supply .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 75
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) ....................................................................................................................................................... 75
Regional Refining Capacity ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 76
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)............................................................................................................................................. 76
Regional Gas Demand .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 77
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) ....................................................................................................................................................... 77
Regional Gas Supply ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 78
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) .......................................................................................................................................................... 78
UAE Country Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 78
Methodology And Risks to Forecasts ........................................................................................................................................................................ 79
Glossary Of Terms ......................................................................................................................................... 80
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology ............................................................................................... 81
Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 81
Ratings Overview ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 81
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure .................................................................................................................... 82
Indicators.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 83
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology.............................................................................................. 83
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology ......................................................................................... 84
BMI Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 86
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............................................................................................................................................................... 86
Energy Industry ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 87
Cross checks ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 87
Sources ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 87
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Executive Summary
We forecast that the United Arab Emirates will account for 8.6% of Middle East regional oil demand by
2015, while providing 9.9% of supply. Middle East regional oil use rose to an estimated 7.6mn b/d in
2010. It should average 7.9mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 and then climb to around 8.9mn b/d by 2015.
Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 24.5mn b/d in 2010. After
an estimated 25.7mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 30.5mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily,
because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an
average of 17.85mn b/d. This total will have eased to an estimated 16.88mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to
reach 21.54mn b/d by 2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 391bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with
demand of 487bcm targeted for 2015, representing 25% growth. Production of an estimated 455bcm in
2010 should reach 642bcm in 2015 (+41%), which implies net exports rising to 154bcm by the end of the
period. The UAE's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been 15.5%, while its share of
production is put at 11.2%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 15.9%, with the
country accounting for 9.7% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea
Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of
US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and
the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.5%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the US is now
expected to slow down, but growth in the Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while
Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the
devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for
the OPEC Basket, putting Brent at US$106/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$95.30,
although these differentials are subject to change.
UAE real GDP rose by 1.4%% in 2010, and we expect average annual growth of 3.35% in 2010-2015.
We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 682,000b/d in 2010 to 771,000b/d in 2015, lagging our
underlying economic assumptions. State-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is the
biggest national oil company, working in partnership with major international oil companies (IOCs) to
deliver 2.85mn b/d of oil and liquids production in 2010, rising to 3.02mn b/d by the end of the forecast
period – subject to OPEC quota policy. Gas production should reach 62bcm by 2015, up from 51bcm in
2010. Consumption is expected to rise from 61bcm in 2010 to 77bcm by the end of the forecast period,
requiring net imports of around 15.8bcm.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in UAE oil production of 22.9%, with volumes
rising steadily to 3.50mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010
and 2020 is set to increase by 28.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the
end of the period and the country using 872,500b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an
estimated 51bcm in 2010 to 70bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 62.9%,
this provides a net gas import requirement rising to nearly 30bcm over the period.
The UAE now holds first place, above Israel and Qatar, in BMI’s composite Business Environment
Ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. The UAE holds second place, behind
Qatar, in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, thanks largely to its significant oil and gas resource base and
investor-friendly climate. It stands just two points behind Qatar and may have to settle for second best.
The UAE’s score reflects the country’s gas reserves, high RPR, plus non-state competition, established
licensing framework and generally encouraging country risk factors. The UAE is around the mid-point of
the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, with some high scores and further progress up the rankings
possible over the longer term. It is ranked fifth, ahead of Qatar and Bahrain, thanks largely to high scores
for oil and gas demand, refining capacity expansion and nominal GDP.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
SWOT Analysis
United Arab Emirates Political SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
ƒ
Standards of living are high for nationals, which has dampened any demands for
greater political representation.
ƒ
The monarchy enjoys strong support nationwide.
ƒ
Lack of democracy poses long-term risks, given trends towards greater popular
participation elsewhere in the region.
ƒ
Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed assumed the presidency after the death of Sheikh
Zayed al-Nahayan. He is equally conservative and is unlikely to make concerted
efforts to address constitutional issues.
ƒ
The succession lineage is somewhat opaque, raising concerns about longer-term
stability.
ƒ
The UAE cooperates closely with other GCC states in security and economic
policy.
ƒ
The UAE is typically a 'dove' within OPEC, sympathetic to the needs of consumer
states, which is good for its relations with the West.
ƒ
There is a long-running territorial dispute with Iran, which continues to affect
bilateral relations.
ƒ
Relatively poor living conditions among some foreign workers have led to strikes
and demonstrations. Given the size of the expatriate community, this poses some
threat to domestic stability.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
United Arab Emirates Economic SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
ƒ
The UAE has one of the most liberal trade regimes in the Gulf and attracts strong
capital flows from across the region.
ƒ
In common with most Gulf states, there are a high number of expatriate workers
at all levels of the economy, making up for the otherwise small workforce.
ƒ
The UAE is progressively diversifying its economy, minimising vulnerability to oil
price movements.
ƒ
The UAE's currency is pegged to the dollar, giving it minimal control over
monetary policy and reducing its ability to tackle inflationary pressure.
ƒ
The state's location in a volatile region means that its risk profile is, to some
extent, affected by events elsewhere. US concerns about regional militant groups
and Iranian weapons of mass destruction programmes could affect investor
perceptions.
ƒ
Oil prices are expected to stay high (by historical standards) over the forecast
period.
ƒ
Economic diversification into gas, tourism, financial services and high-tech
industries offers some protection against volatile oil prices.
ƒ
Despite the impact of the 2009 downturn, the tourism and financial sectors still
have good medium-term growth prospects, driven by domestic and foreign
investment.
ƒ
Heavy subsidies on utilities and agriculture, and an outdated tax system, have
contributed to persistent fiscal deficits in the past, although rising oil revenues
have masked the problem in recent years.
ƒ
Several high-profile construction projects have been delayed and the property
market crash could threaten future development.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
United Arab Emirates Business Environment SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
ƒ
The UAE is a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, a six-member common
market, and has been a member of the WTO since 1996.
ƒ
The state has invested large sums in infrastructure, and will continue to do so over
the next 10 years.
ƒ
The UAE's diversified economy reduces risks from volatile oil prices.
ƒ
Oil and gas reserves are vast and underutilised, providing a high reserves-toproduction ratio (RPR) that facilitates medium- to long-term production growth.
ƒ
Owing to the state's federal nature, regulations can vary considerably across the
emirates.
ƒ
The regional economy is oil-dependent. This has historically been very cyclical,
which increases risks for long-term projects.
ƒ
Growth in oil production is subject to OPEC policy and substantial ongoing
investment that can be guaranteed only with continuing IOC participation.
ƒ
Large number of free trade zones offering tax holidays and full foreign ownership.
ƒ
Comparatively relaxed rules on expatriate employment.
ƒ
The UAE's social stability and relative prosperity means that there is far less
concern for security than in some other Gulf states.
ƒ
The UAE is set to upgrade two refineries by end-2011 in order to meet rising
domestic demand for refined products.
ƒ
The state is bureaucratic relative to regional peers.
ƒ
Strong oil prices have massively increased liquidity in the region. This has resulted
in strong financial inflows, increasing risks that projects of lower investment
potential are currently being funded.
ƒ
Abu Dhabi in particular has less near- to medium-term oil and gas production
upside potential than other Gulf States and investment opportunities elsewhere in
the region could make IOCs less enthusiastic regarding longer-term UAE
participation.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
UAE Energy Market Overview
The collection of states that forms the UAE has proven oil reserves estimated at 97.8bn bbl (BP Statistical
Review of World Energy, June 2011), or nearly 10% of the world total. It also houses the world’s fifthlargest natural gas reserves at 6,031bcm at end-2010, and exports liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Japan. It
is also importing gas from Qatar. Abu Dhabi dominates the UAE oil and gas sector, with 94% of its oil
(over 92bn bbl). Dubai contains just 4bn bbl of reserves, followed by Sharjah and Ras al-Khaimah, with
1.5bn bbl and 100mn bbl respectively.
The UAE is a member of OPEC and it has recently (April 2011) been producing 2.51mn b/d, against
sustainable productive capacity estimated at 2.69mn b/d. There are also significant volumes of gas liquids
that are exempt from OPEC quotas.
There are five operational refineries providing end-2009 capacity of approximately 673,000b/d, according
to BP data. The December 2010 Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) refining survey suggests an increase in UAE
crude distillation capacity to 773,250b/d by the end of 2010. Company data suggests that capacity was
between these two figures, at 685,000b/d. UAE oil consumption was 682,000b/d in 2010, while its gas
demand of 60.53bcm in 2010 exceeded production of around 51bcm.
Prior to the outbreak of unrest in the Middle East in 2011, the UAE had moving slowly towards
liberalising fuel prices. State-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) raised gasoline prices in
September 2010 for the third time in a year. The price rises boosted sales in neighbouring Oman as
motorists crossed the border to fill up on cheaper fuel, with some beginng to resell it to UAE firms. In
August 2010, the federal government set up a committee of UAE oil companies to monitor fuel prices in
an effort to reduce losses incurred by retailers. The eventual elimination of price controls would slow the
pace of UAE oil consumption growth, which has benefited from cheap gasoline.
Following demonstrations and violence across the Middle East in early 2011, the UAE appeared to halt its
liberalisation of fuel prices. Unwilling to risk unrest by raising fuel prices in line with higher crude oil
prices, the government chose to let retailers shoulder the burden of worsening margins between wholesale
and retail fuel prices. In May 2011 this led to fuel shortages, first in Sharjah and then nearby emirates
such as Umm al Quwain. In Sharjah, shortages forced motorists to buy gasoline in Dubai, forcing the
problem westwards and leading to fuels retail stations closing their doors or initiating rationing.
According to a June 2011 New York Times report, almost 200 UAE fuels retail stations shut because of
shortages.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Gas was the dominant fuel for the UAE in 2010, accounting for an estimated 71% of primary energy
demand (PED), followed by oil at 29%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,117mn tonnes of
oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.8% growth over the period since 2010. The UAE’s estimated
2010 market share of 8.52% is set to rise to 8.58% by 2015. Our projections suggest that by 2015, UAE
will be dependent on gas for 74% of PED, with the share of oil at a forecast 26%.
The Dubai government is said to be considering the possibility of using coal and nuclear technology to
diversify energy resources to meet future demand, according to June 2010 reports by Qatar News Agency
(QNA). The government's newly created Supreme Council of Energy has reportedly hired global advisory
group McKinsey & Company to help develop an Energy Strategy 2030 that will help the emirate to
explore alternative energy resources to power its utilities sector and meet future demand. Currently, the
council is studying the development of short-, medium- and long-term strategic plans for the energy
sector in Dubai.
Under the UAE’s constitution, each emirate controls its own oil production and resource development.
Although Abu Dhabi joined OPEC in 1967 (four years before the UAE was formed), Dubai does not
consider itself part of OPEC or bound by its quotas.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Regional Energy Market Overview
The Arabian Gulf states will continue to dominate oil supply, backed by huge and largely untapped
reserves. Gas is another important export product for the region, mainly in the form of liquefied natural
gas (LNG). The Gulf plays a growing role in the supply of the world’s gas. Large parts of the region
remain off limits to IOCs, thanks to state control in the major Gulf countries. Iraq is formulating oil laws,
however, that may result in foreign partnerships. Investment in Iran by IOCs has come under increasing
pressure thanks to the nuclear standoff. Refinery investment opportunities do exist for IOC partners, with
the region building a substantial surplus with which to meet demand growth in Asia, Europe and North
America.
Oil Supply And Demand
Thanks to the Gulf producers, this remains the key region in terms of supply, and has an increasingly
significant role to play as a consumer of oil. Oil- and gas-based wealth creation has stimulated regional
economies, triggering a surge in fuel demand that could ultimately have a negative impact on the export
capabilities of Iran and others. OPEC policy and a relatively high level of quota adherence meant a
meaningful downturn in 2009 regional supply, but there was noticeable growth in 2010 thanks to quotabusting activities of certain members. We see the possibility of OPEC quota compliance falling below
50% in H211, particularly after the June 2011 summit produced a fissure between price doves and hawks.
Iraq remains the region’s ‘wild card’, having medium-term production potential of around 6mn b/d by
2015, with the government admitting that it will likely have to downgrade its ambitious long-term
production goal of 12mn b/d. For the immediate future, volumes look set to continue recovering slowly in
spite of the uncertain political climate. Baghdad is hoping that new deals with IOCs will result in
investments to develop new reserves. For the region as a whole, we expect to see output capacity to reach
30.48mn b/d by 2015, representing a gain of 24.4% on 2010. With regional consumption set to reach
8.95mn b/d in 2015, the growing export capability is clearly vast. The Middle East region will have an
export capacity of 21.53mn b/d in 2015, up from 16.88mn b/d in 2010.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Country
2008
2009
2010e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
Bahrain
44.0
39.3
45.0
44.6
45.9
47.3
48.7
50.1
Kuwait
369.9
418.5
422.7
429.0
435.0
450.0
460.0
475.0
Iran
1,761.0
1,741.0
1,731.0
1,790.0
1,843.7
1,899.0
1,956.0
2,014.7
Iraq
616.0
660.0
700.0
720.0
771.8
810.3
850.9
893.4
Israel
251.0
250.0
253.8
257.6
261.4
265.3
269.3
273.4
Oman
63.0
64.0
67.2
70.6
74.1
77.8
81.7
85.8
Qatar
197.6
209.4
220.0
233.2
247.2
262.0
277.7
294.4
2,386.5
2,623.9
2,812.3
2,964.0
3,105.0
3,213.7
3,277.9
3,376.3
UAE
653.7
616.1
681.6
698.7
716.2
734.1
752.4
771.2
Other
696.4
694.7
696.1
698.2
700.3
703.8
707.3
710.8
BMI Universe
6,342.7
6,622.3
6,933.6
7,207.6
7,500.2
7,759.5
7,974.6
8,234.2
Total
7,039.1
7,317.0
7,629.7
7,905.8
8,200.5
8,463.3
8,681.9
8,945.1
Saudi Arabia
e/f = estimate/forecast. Historical data: EIA/BMI. All forecasts: BMI.
Middle East regional oil use of 4.98mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 7.63mn b/d in 2010. It should
average 7.91mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 8.95mn b/d by 2015.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d)
Country
2008
2009
2010e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
Bahrain
48.0
49.0
46.0
58.0
65.0
75.0
82.0
90.0
Kuwait
2,782.0
2,481.0
2,495.0
2,505.0
2,575.0
2,630.0
2,700.0
2,785.0
Iran
4,327.0
4,216.0
4,190.0
4,210.0
4,275.0
4,300.0
4,340.0
4,450.0
Iraq
2,423.0
2,482.0
2,450.0
2,725.0
3,470.0
4,438.0
5,379.0
6,218.0
Israel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Oman
754.0
810.0
865.0
900.0
920.0
900.0
880.0
853.6
Qatar
1,378.0
1,345.0
1,569.0
1,714.5
1,808.8
1,860.4
1,943.6
1,998.8
10,846.1
9,713.0
10,007.0
10,630.0
10,600.0
10,706.0
10,866.6
11,029.6
3,087.9
2,749.9
2,848.5
2,919.7
2,948.9
2,978.4
3,008.2
3,015.0
33.0
37.0
38.0
39.0
40.0
42.0
43.0
44.0
BMI Universe
25,646.1
23,846.0
24,470.6
25,662.3
26,662.9
27,887.9
29,199.5
30,440.1
Total
25,679.1
23,883.0
24,508.6
25,701.3
26,702.9
27,929.9
29,242.5
30,484.1
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Other
e/f = estimate/forecast. na = not applicable. Historical data: EIA/BMI. All forecasts: BMI.
Regional oil production was 21.79mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 24.51mn b/d in 2010. After
an estimated 25.70mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 30.48mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing
steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was
exporting an average 17.85mn b/d. This total eased to an estimated 16.88mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to
reach 21.53mn b/d by 2015.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Oil: Downstream
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Country
2008
2009
2010e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
Bahrain
262.0
262.0
262.0
262.0
262.0
262.0
262.0
302.0
Kuwait
931.0
931.0
936.0
990.0
990.0
990.0
990.0
1,150.0
Iran
1,805.0
1,860.0
1,532.0
1,922.0
2,212.0
2,502.0
2,792.0
3,152.0
Iraq
779.0
804.0
825.0
895.0
1,000.0
1,150.0
1,300.0
1,300.0
Israel
220.0
220.0
220.0
220.0
320.0
320.0
320.0
320.0
Oman
85.0
85.0
85.0
205.0
205.0
205.0
205.0
290.0
Qatar
240.0
380.0
380.0
520.0
520.0
520.0
586.0
586.0
2,100.0
2,100.0
2,097.0
2,097.0
2,097.0
2,297.0
2,697.0
3,097.0
UAE
673.0
673.0
685.0
685.0
735.0
735.0
835.0
935.0
Other
778.0
817.0
765.0
765.0
803.0
843.0
886.0
930.0
BMI Universe
7,095.0
7,315.0
7,022.0
7,796.0
8,341.0
8,981.0
9,987.0
11,132.0
Total
7,873.0
8,132.0
7,787.0
8,561.0
9,144.0
9,824.0
10,873.0
12,062.0
Saudi Arabia
e/f = estimate/forecast. Historical data: EIA/BMI. All forecasts: BMI.
Refining capacity for the region was 6.88mn b/d in 2001, rising gradually to an estimated 7.79mn b/d in
2010. Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are all expected to significantly increase their domestic
refining capacity, with the region’s total capacity forecast to reach 12.06mn b/d by 2015.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm)
Country
2008
2009
2010e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
Bahrain
12.7
12.8
12.6
13.5
14.2
15.2
15.9
16.7
Kuwait
12.8
13.4
13.9
15.9
16.7
17.5
18.4
19.3
Iran
119.3
131.7
133.0
135.0
138.4
140.0
142.8
145.7
Iraq
4.0
4.8
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
11.5
Israel
1.0
2.3
2.7
3.5
4.5
7.0
7.0
7.0
Oman
13.5
13.8
15.0
16.5
18.0
19.0
20.3
21.0
Qatar
19.7
20.0
20.4
24.1
26.1
29.1
31.3
36.9
Saudi Arabia
80.4
77.5
83.9
88.5
88.3
89.0
95.0
96.0
UAE
59.5
59.1
60.5
63.6
66.7
70.1
73.6
77.3
Other
39.7
41.7
43.8
46.0
48.3
50.7
53.2
55.9
BMI Universe
322.9
335.3
347.0
366.5
379.9
394.9
413.3
431.3
Total
362.6
377.0
390.8
412.5
428.2
445.6
466.5
487.2
e/f = estimate/forecast. Historical data: EIA/BMI. All forecasts: BMI.
The region consumed an estimated 391bcm of natural gas in 2010, with demand of 487bcm targeted for
2015, representing 24.7% growth. Production of an estimated 455bcm in 2010 should reach 642bcm in
2015 (+41%), which implies net exports rising to 155bcm by the end of the period.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm)
Country
2008
2009
2010
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
Bahrain
12.7
12.8
12.6
13.5
14.2
15.2
15.9
16.7
Kuwait
12.8
12.5
13.2
13.9
14.2
14.6
15.0
15.3
Iran
116.3
131.2
140.0
147.0
153.0
165.0
185.0
185.0
Iraq
4.0
4.8
5.0
6.0
13.0
28.6
32.9
36.9
Israel
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
Oman
24.1
24.8
26.5
29.0
31.0
32.0
33.5
35.0
Qatar
77.0
89.3
116.3
135.0
155.0
160.0
170.0
179.0
Saudi Arabia
80.4
77.5
83.9
88.5
88.3
89.0
95.0
96.0
UAE
50.2
48.8
51.0
55.0
58.0
60.0
61.5
62.0
Other
4.5
4.9
5.4
6.0
6.6
7.2
7.9
8.7
BMI Universe
378.5
402.7
449.5
488.9
528.7
571.4
615.8
632.9
Total
383.0
407.6
454.9
494.9
535.3
578.6
623.7
641.6
e/f = estimate/forecast. Historical data: EIA/BMI. All forecasts: BMI.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Country
2008
2009
2010e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
Kuwait
na
(0.9)
(0.7)
(2.0)
(2.5)
(2.9)
(3.4)
(4.0)
Oman
10.9
11.5
11.5
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
13.0
Qatar
39.7
49.4
75.0
90.9
108.9
110.9
113.7
112.1
UAE
7.5
7.0
7.9
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.7
7.6
Iraq
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
5
58.1
67.0
93.7
108.8
126.2
132.7
140.0
147.7
Regional Total
e/f = estimate/forecast. na = not applicable. EIA/BMI. All forecasts: BMI
The leading LNG exporter by 2015 will be Qatar (+49% from 2010). Kuwait took its first deliveries of
imported LNG from the summer of 2009. The UAE is balancing LNG imports, growing domestic gas
demand and LNG exports in an effort to meet supply commitments. Iraq could emerge an LNG exporter
by the end of the forecast period.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Business Environment Ratings
Middle East Region
The regional business environment scoring matrix is broken down into upstream and downstream
segments, providing a detailed analysis of the growth outlook, risk profile and market conditions for both
major elements of the oil and gas industry.
The Middle East region comprises nine countries, including all major Gulf states. State influence remains
very high, with limited privatisation activity. Oil production growth for the period to 2015 ranges from a
negative 1.3% for Oman to a positive 63.6% in Bahrain, while oil demand growth ranges from 7.7% to
33.8% across the region. Increases in gas output range from 10.7% to 600% during the period to 2015.
The spread of gas demand growth estimates ranges from 7.8% to 130%. The political and economic
environment varies, depending partly on market maturity and specific factors such as the uncertainty in
Iraq and the nuclear-inspired standoff in Iran.
Composite Scores
Composite Business Environment scores are calculated using the average of individual upstream and
downstream ratings. The UAE occupies the top slot of the regional league table, but is only one point
above Qatar and Israel. Kuwait is at the bottom, although only just behind Saudi Arabia. The highest
composite upstream and downstream combined score is 58 points and the lowest is 44, out of a possible
100. This represents a particularly narrow spread for the Middle East region, thanks to the similar risk
profiles. Iraq has the potential to challenge the leaders, while Iran is at risk of falling back towards the
foot of the table.
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Rating
Downstream Rating
Composite Rating
Rank
UAE
66
49
58
1
Qatar
68
46
57
2=
Israel
55
58
57
2=
Iraq
63
41
52
4
Iran
49
53
51
5
Bahrain
54
46
50
6=
Oman
47
52
50
6=
Saudi Arabia
38
51
45
8
Kuwait
44
44
44
9
Source: BMI. Scores are out of 100 for all categories, with 100 the highest.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Upstream Scores
Qatar and Saudi Arabia remain the best and worst performers in this segment, showing that the overall
pecking order is quite different from that for combined scores. The UAE has remained just behind Qatar,
but has remained well clear of Iraq and has a score of 66 against the 68 of Qatar. Israel continues to
squabble with Bahrain over fourth and places, with respective scores of 55 and 54 points. Iran’s
worsening risk profile will probably push it in further down the table, although it may be able to keep
ahead of Kuwait. Saudi at the foot of the table has accumulated 56% of the points allocated to Qatar.
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Rewards
Risks
Industry
Rewards
Country
Rewards
Rewards
Industry
Risks
Country
Risks
Risks
Upstream
Rating
Rank
Qatar
65
85
70
65
59
63
68
1
UAE
60
75
64
75
62
71
66
2
Iraq
78
65
74
45
22
37
63
3
Israel
34
70
43
95
66
85
55
4
Bahrain
36
65
43
85
64
78
54
5
Iran
70
35
61
15
34
22
49
6
Oman
26
60
35
90
54
77
47
7
Kuwait
61
15
50
10
68
30
44
8
Saudi Arabia
56
10
45
10
50
24
38
9
Scores are out of 100 for all categories, with 100 the highest. The Upstream BE Rating is the principal rating. It
comprises two sub-ratings ‘Rewards’ and ‘Risks’, which have a 70% and 30% weighting respectively. In turn, the
‘Rewards’ Rating comprises Industry Rewards and Country Rewards, which have a 75% and 25% weighting
respectively. They are based upon the oil and gas resource base/growth outlook and sector maturity (Industry) and
the broader industry competitive environment (Country). The ‘Risks’ rating comprises Industry Risks and Country
Risks which have a 65% and 35% weighting respectively and are based on a subjective evaluation of licensing terms
and liberalisation (Industry) and the industry’s broader Country Risks exposure (Country), which is based on BMI’s
proprietary Country Risk Ratings. The ratings structure is aligned across the 14 Industries for which BMI provides
Business Environment Ratings methodology, and is designed to enable clients to consider each rating individually or
as a composite, with the choice depending on their exposure to the industry in each particular state. For a list of the
data/indicators used, please consult the appendix. Source: BMI
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
UAE Upstream Rating – Overview
The UAE holds second place, behind Qatar, in BMI’s updated upstream BERs, thanks largely to its
significant oil and gas resource base and investor-friendly climate. It stands just two points behind Qatar
and may have to settle for second best. UAE’s score reflects the country’s gas reserves, high RPR, plus
non-state competition, established licensing framework and generally encouraging country risk factors.
UAE Upstream Rating – Rewards
Industry Rewards: On the basis of upstream data alone, the UAE takes fifth place behind Kuwait in the
ME region. The country ranks fifth and fourth respectively in terms of proven oil and gas reserves. Its oil
and gas production growth outlook are third and fourth, while the oil and gas RPR are third and fifth
respectively.
Country Rewards: Influencing the UAE’s third place in the Rewards section is the second-placed
country rewards rating, behind Qatar. UAE ranks third by the number of non-state operators in the
upstream sector, and equal third in terms of state ownership of assets.
UAE Upstream Rating – Risks
Industry Risks: The UAE is ranked fourth in the Risks section of our ratings, behind Oman. Its fourth
position for industry risks is attributable to a joint first-placed licensing environment and fifth-placed
privatisation trend.
Country Risks: The UAE’s broader country risks environment is relatively attractive, ranking UAE
fourth behind Bahrain. The best score is for long-term policy continuity, while corruption fares relatively
well. Would-be investors are also faced with less impressive scores for physical infrastructure and rule of
law.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Downstream Scores
Israel and Iraq bracket the remaining six ME states in the downstream rankings, with the former driven by
the favourable country risk profile, privatisation moves and the competitive landscape. Israel is now five
points ahead of Iran, which performs well in spite of its country risks profile. Saudi Arabia has now fallen
from a share of second place to outright fourth, while Qatar has the potential to overtake Bahrain and
challenge the UAE above it. There is little to choose between Kuwait and Iraq near the foot of the table,
although the latter arguably has greater long-term promotion potential.
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Rewards
Risks
Industry
Rewards
Country
Rewards
Rewards
Industry
Risks
Country
Risks
Risks
Downstream
Rating
Rank
Israel
37
74
46
100
68
87
58
1
Iran
66
62
65
10
46
24
53
2
Oman
52
44
50
60
49
55
52
3
Saudi Arabia
61
52
59
10
64
31
51
4
UAE
50
50
50
50
54
52
50
5
Bahrain
39
44
40
60
62
61
46
6=
Qatar
54
34
49
20
66
39
46
6=
Kuwait
51
40
48
15
48
28
42
8
Iraq
53
40
50
10
35
20
41
9
Scores are out of 100 for all categories, with 100 the highest. The Downstream BE Rating comprises two sub-ratings
‘Rewards’ and ‘Risks’, which have a 70% and 30% weighting respectively. In turn, the ‘Rewards’ Rating comprises
Industry Rewards and Country Rewards, which have a 75% and 25% weighting respectively. They are based upon
the downstream refining capacity/product growth outlook/import dependence (Industry) and the broader sociodemographic and economic context (Country). The ‘Risks’ rating comprises Industry Risks and Country Risks which
have a 60% and 40% weighting respectively and are based on a subjective evaluation of regulation and liberalisation
(Industry) and the industry’s broader Country Risks exposure (Country), which is based on BMI’s proprietary Country
Risk Ratings. The ratings structure is aligned across the 14 Industries for which BMI provides Business Environment
Ratings methodology, and is designed to enable clients to consider each rating individually or as a composite, with the
choice depending on their exposure to the industry in each particular state. For a list of the data/indicators used,
please consult the appendix. Source: BMI
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
UAE Downstream Rating – Overview
The UAE is around the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, with some high
scores and further progress up the rankings possible over the longer term. It is ranked fifth, ahead of Qatar
and Bahrain, thanks largely to high scores for oil and gas demand, refining capacity expansion and
nominal GDP.
UAE Downstream Rating – Rewards
Industry Rewards: On the basis of downstream data alone, the UAE ranks seventh among the region’s
nine countries, behind Kuwait. This score reflects the region’s fifth-ranked refining capacity and oil
demand, third-placed gas consumption and third-placed refining capacity expansion plans.
Country Rewards: The UAE shares fourth place with Oman in the Rewards section, and its country
rewards rating takes fourth place behind Saudi Arabia. Population and nominal GDP rank the country
sixth and fourth respectively, while growth in GDP per capita is the third highest. State ownership of
assets is ranked equal fourth.
UAE Downstream Rating – Risks
Industry Risks: In the Risks section of our ratings, the UAE is ranked fourth, behind Oman. Its fourth
place for industry risks reflects the fifth-placed regulatory regime and fifth-ranked score for privatisation
of government-held assets.
Country Risks: The UAE’s broader country risks environment is broadly neutral, ranked fifth ahead of
Oman. The best score is for short-term policy continuity. A reasonable score is awarded for legal
framework and physical infrastructure. Operational risks for private companies are raised by the shortterm economic external risk, short-term economic growth risk and the rule of law.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Although investment laws and regulations are undergoing a period of evolution and becoming more
conducive to foreign investment, at present the regulatory and legal framework still favours local over
foreign nationals. Foreign ownership of land and stocks is restricted, although specific rules vary among
emirates. Dubai was the first emirate to open its property market to foreign ownership, followed by Abu
Dhabi (although ownership in both is limited to certain designated property developments). Ras alKhaimah also offers freehold land to offshore companies in designated areas.
However, investors should be aware of impediments to the exercise of rights over property. In Dubai, for
example, foreign owners of 'freeholds' cannot register titles with the Dubai Land Department, which
would allow them access to the full range of legal protections and transactions that property ownership
requires. Freeholds are a new phenomenon in Dubai and very few court precedents exist, so there is still
considerable ambiguity concerning property rights and inheritance laws. Lack of clarity over the link
between property ownership and residency has caused some confusion among expatriates. Many
developers in Dubai and Abu Dhabi sold properties to foreign buyers with the implicit guarantee that they
would be granted residency permits. UAE authorities then clarified that there was not a link between the
two. In June 2011, however, the Dubai government announced that expatriate home owners would
thereafter be eligible for a three year (up from six-month previously) renewable, multi-entry visa.
Intellectual Property Rights
The UAE is a regional leader in the protection of Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs), with improving
enforcement of copyright, trademark and patent laws. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the federal
government is enforcing these laws, which were passed in 2002. The rate of software piracy in the UAE
is regarded as one of the lowest in the Middle East. However, enforcement of anti-piracy measures can
vary between emirates, with Dubai seen as the best performer. More could be done in other emirates,
while the UAE remains a major centre for the trans-shipment of counterfeit goods.
Corruption/Red Tape
Corruption is not endemic to UAE business life, and the country ranks 28th of 178 states in Transparency
International's Corruption Perception Index 2010, second only to Qatar in the Middle East. Nevertheless,
large state-owned enterprises continue to control large swathes of the economy and are not subject to
extensive scrutiny. Furthermore, those convicted of corruption have often escaped effective punishment –
in 2001, the former head of the Dubai Customs and Port Authority was convicted of corruption and
embezzlement and sentenced to 27 years in prison, but was quickly pardoned by the Dubai government
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
and released. A law passed in 2005 now stipulates minimum sentencing requirements for public officials
found guilty of corruption.
Under its WTO membership obligations, the UAE has undertaken measures to reduce red tape
surrounding the foreign investment approval process. Investors are now exempt from obtaining a Ministry
of Labour card in addition to an Immigration Department visa, and investors no longer need to appear in
person to enquire about the status of business applications; a new automated service allows them to
receive information about their business licences over the phone.
Physical Infrastructure
The UAE has around 1,000km of paved roads linking all the emirates, mainly along the coast. Road is the
major means of transport between the emirates given that there is no railway system.
However, much of the UAE's international trade is done by sea, and all seven emirates have modern port
facilities. Dubai dominates the cargo and re-export markets thanks to the size of its two ports, Port Rashid
and Jebel Ali Port. The former is one of the busiest ports in the Gulf region with 35 berths, while the latter
has 63 berths and is part of a free economic zone. Abu Dhabi's Mina Zayed port has been upgraded to 21
deep water berths, which has helped eliminate waiting times. Construction is now under way on a new
industrial port in Abu Dhabi, the first phase of which should be completed by 2012, with the full port and
accompanying zone slated for completion by 2028.
Other emirates are seeking a share of the re-export business, although their facilities are currently smaller
than those available in Dubai or Abu Dhabi. Sharjah is the only emirate with ports on both the Persian
Gulf and the Indian Ocean, which offers it significant advantages; international cargo ships can save
around 24 hours in a trip from East Asia to Europe by not having to join the queue to enter the busy Gulf.
Avoiding the Gulf also results in significant insurance savings. Ras al-Khaimeh's new Saqr port is
currently nearing completion.
The UAE is home to two major airline carriers. Emirates Air is owned by Dubai and flies to destinations
across the Middle East, Europe, Australia, Africa and the Indian subcontinent. Etihad Airways is owned
by Abu Dhabi and was established in 2003.
Mobile phone use in the UAE is among the highest in the Middle East and, indeed, the world, with
services provided by two carriers: Etisalat and newcomer Du. Fixed-line services are less popular, and
although broadband is now gaining in popularity – penetration grew from less than 3% in 2005 to 11.0%
in 2008 – broadband networks are not as developed as in some neighbouring states, such as Bahrain.
Customers have complained of high prices and poor service quality, although this should improve as Du
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
expands its services nationwide, providing greater competition to Etisalat (which offers services under the
name e-Company).
Labour Force
According to our estimates, the UAE's population is slightly under 5mn (BMI's population data is
sourced from the World Bank). Emiratis account for 16.5% of the total population. Meanwhile, the
expatriate population has increased significantly, with Indians accounting for the largest share at 1.75mn.
It is estimated that as many as 98% of private-sector workers are non-UAE nationals. Most UAE
nationals seek employment opportunities in the public sector, due to the higher salaries, greater benefits,
shorter working hours and job security on offer. The construction sector is a major employer of foreign
labour, mainly from the Indian sub-continent.
In recent years, the federal and emirate governments have implemented a number of measures to increase
the cost of hiring expatriate workers, as part of an effort to bring more UAE nationals into the private
sector. 'Emiratisation' of the UAE workforce is a government objective, though less rigorously enforced
than in other Gulf States (although this appears to be changing, in response to the economic downturn).
Compulsory hiring of nationals has been limited to sectors such as banking (which has a 4% quota),
insurance (5%) and trade (2% for companies employing 50 workers or more). In 2006, the government
added Emiratisation requirements that all secretaries and PR officers must also be UAE nationals.
Calls for reform of labour laws, including the right to create trade unions, are growing louder. The US
insisted on this during negotiations over its free trade agreement with the UAE. The current law does not
specifically give workers the right to engage in collective bargaining. Neither do labour laws cover
government employees, domestic servants and agricultural workers.
Industrial unrest grew during 2007, particularly among construction workers, the vast majority of whom
come from the Indian subcontinent. In November 2007, nearly 40,000 labourers working for the country's
largest construction firm Arabtec went on strike in a high-profile protest. However, protests have eased
since, and with unemployment likely to have risen in 2009 and 2010, we expect a net loss of foreign
workers, particularly those on short-term contracts, who will be unable to renew their residency permits
without a firm offer of employment from a UAE-based firm.
In the wake of those protests, the Labour Ministry drew up new laws, which came into force in early
2008. These include the mandatory use of electronic payment systems for unskilled workers, increased
fines for companies found to be employing illegal workers, and compulsory health cover (already in place
in Abu Dhabi but to be extended to the other emirates). The ministry has also drawn up a series of
standards for worker accommodation to cover all industry sectors. Protests have been few and far since
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
mid-2008, although this probably reflects the tighter conditions in the labour market as much as any real
improvement in living conditions for labourers. Domestic servants continue to face considerable difficulty
in negotiating employment contracts because mandatory requirements in the labour law do not apply to
them. The Labour Minister Dr Ali bin Abdullah al-Ka'abi has ruled out any possibility of expatriates
being awarded citizenship, no matter how long they have worked in the emirates or their level of
expertise in their field.
Foreign Investment Policy
The UAE's investment climate is becoming more clement for foreign direct investors: the federal
government, led by Abu Dhabi, has made significant headway in the past five years in increasing the role
of the private sector. Yet, the overall legal framework continues to favour local over foreign investors - a
fact that partly reflects the historically benign macro environment in light of the country's substantial oil
revenue windfall. This has endowed local and regional Gulf investors with substantial liquidity,
disincentivising the search for new FDI sources from outside the region.
At present, foreign shareholders may only hold up to 49% equity interest in limited liability companies;
indeed, all companies established in the UAE are required to have a minimum of 51% national
ownership, although profits may be divided differently. In the insurance sector, companies must be 75%
owned by a UAE national or 100% by a UAE corporation.
Full foreign ownership is generally allowed only within economic free zones. In order to do business in
the UAE outside the free zones, a foreign business must usually have a UAE national sponsor, agent or
distributor which, once chosen, has exclusive rights. In order to bid for federal projects, a contractor must
be at least 51% owned by UAE nationals, and tenders must be accompanied by a bid bond - an
unconditional bank guarantee for 5% of the value of the bid. However, government tendering practices do
not live up to international standards, and re-tendering is common.
On the positive side, the absence of income tax compensates for the restrictive investment environment.
The UAE is now the Gulf's second-biggest FDI destination after Saudi Arabia.
The UAE is considering revising its system of oil and gas concessions to spur technological development
and introduce more competition into its upstream segment. Having concluded its sour gas licensing round
with IOCs, it is expected that ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) will focus on reforming the
concessions system as it seeks to boost production capacity.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Foreign Trade Regime
The UAE has a free and open trade regime, with more than three-quarters of goods entering the country
duty free. The average tariff rate is just 4%, while free trade zones offer numerous incentives, such as
exemptions from taxes and duties. The WTO has urged the authorities to prioritise the rationalisation of
the trade regime in line with plans for uniform customs procedures among the six members of the GCC.
The UAE has been a WTO member since its 1995 inception.
The UAE's open-border foreign labour policy has proved a major bulwark of the liberal trade regime,
enabling the private sector to recruit expatriate workers at internationally competitive wages.
In January 2003, the UAE joined the GCC Customs Union, which equalises the duties paid upon entry of
an item to any member state, regardless of country destination. The union establishes a single tariff of 5%
on 1,500 imported items from non-member countries. It also lists other imports that are not subject to
duties. The UAE government is also negotiating a free trade agreement with the US, a move opposed by
Saudi Arabia, which had wanted to sign a joint GCC-US FTA. However, talks between the UAE and US
stalled in early 2007, with US trade officials citing 'investment issues', such as ownership and access to
each others' markets, as the major stumbling blocks.
In December 2007, GCC members confirmed the launch of a common market in January 2008. The new
rules allow all GCC citizens the right to work in all government and private institutions throughout the
common market, as well as the ability to buy and sell real estate, make other investments, move freely
between the six states and receive equal education and health benefits. The six states also committed
themselves to entering a common currency regime by 2010, though this goal has certainly proven to be
too optimistic. In mid-2009, the UAE pulled out of the currency, apparently in response to the decision to
locate the central bank in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, rather than in Abu Dhabi, as proposed by the UAE. The
currency is now slated for launch in 2012, which does leave the UAE with an opportunity to rejoin before
this date, if it so wishes.
In the UAE, the customs duty for most items is 5% calculated on CIF value. Imports of liquor are subject
to a 70% customs duty while imports of tobacco products face a 100% duty on their CIF value. But a
number of essential items – staple foodstuffs and pharmaceuticals – enjoy duty-free status. Goods
produced within the GCC are exempt from customs duties.
The UAE maintains non-tariff barriers to trade and investment in the form of restrictive agency or
distribution requirements. The federal authorities are under pressure to boost IPR protection. Under WTO
TRIPS agreement provisions, the UAE must grant patents to pharmaceutical and agricultural chemicals
products. Similarly, the textile sector will be forced to put a halt to import quotas.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
The UAE, led by Dubai, has pioneered the free trade zone model. There are currently 12 in operation,
developed along specialised lines – including free zones covering ICT, media, finance, gold and jewellery
and healthcare. Jebel Ali Free Zone, in Dubai, is now one of the world's largest FTZs. The FTZs allow
100% foreign ownership with no recruitment or sponsorship restraints. There is full corporate tax and
customs duty exemption on imported raw materials and equipment, and there is no levy on exports and
imports.
Tax Regime
The UAE's substantial hydrocarbons resource revenues mean that the government has no pressing need to
raise income via direct taxes.
Corporate tax: Only banks and oil companies pay corporate tax, at a rate of 50% (55% in Dubai) for oil
companies. Oil companies also pay royalties on oil and gas they produce. Net taxable income of foreign
banks is subject to tax at a flat rate of 20%, implemented in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Alongside all the other
benefits enjoyed by companies operating in the free trade zones, there is no corporate tax for 15 years,
renewable for an additional 15 years.
Individual tax: There is no income tax on individuals resident in the UAE. Dubai imposes a rental tax on
expatriates equal to 5% of rental charges. There is no VAT in the UAE, but the federal government, on
the advice of the IMF, is discussing the introduction of a VAT system. However, this is unlikely to be
introduced in the near term.
There are no withholding or capital taxes. Business properties pay a municipal tax set at 10% of annual
rental value. Double taxation agreements exist with France, Pakistan, Poland, Turkey, China, Romania,
Italy, Egypt, Germany, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and India.
Security Risk
While there remains a generalised threat of terrorism throughout the Middle East, the UAE has not yet
been the target of a major attack. Given the large number of expatriate workers and the high visibility of
Western businesses in the country, particularly in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, authorities have stepped up
security measures in recent years. However, unlike neighbouring Saudi Arabia, the UAE has no known
domestic groups operating on its territory, and the emirates rank top in BMI's regional risk ratings and
state terrorism vulnerability index for the Middle East.
Risks to physical safety are also relatively low, despite the large number of foreign non-citizens. The vast
majority are Muslim, coming from South Asia or other Arab states, and work in low-paid, unskilled jobs.
Those who are more attractive targets for criminal gangs, namely highly paid expatriates from Europe and
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other Western states, tend to live in well-guarded compounds. Furthermore, security and police forces are
well-equipped and well-trained.
Some visitors have run into trouble with Iranian Coast Guard forces for alleged violations of Iranian
territorial waters around the island of Abu Musa, located around 20 miles from Dubai city. The UAE and
Iran are locked in a long-running dispute over the jurisdiction of Abu Musa and two other islands in the
Gulf, and sailing in these waters can result in the seizure of vessels and detention of passengers in Iran.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Our view is that the UAE’s proven oil reserves will slip gradually over the period to 2015, dropping to
92.4bn bbl from the end-2010 total of 97.8bn. Exploration and development activity is on the rise, but
may not be sufficient to maintain the current reserves position while delivering rising output. We also see
scope for some contraction of gas reserves, to around 5,880bcm over the next five years.
Oil Supply And Demand
UAE crude supply averaged 2. 51mn b/d in April 2011. Over the course of 2010, the UAE’s crude
production averaged 2.3mn b/d, according to the EIA.
Sustainable capacity is estimated at 2.69mn b/d, but is capable of reaching 3.00mn b/d in 2013 as a
number of new projects come online, including expansion of Umm Shaif, the Lower and Upper Zakum
fields plus other enhanced recovery schemes. The UAE plans to have added around 340,000b/d of gas
liquids capacity by early-2011, including the start-up of the delayed 270,000b/d Habshan processing
facilities.
The UAE plans to increase its oil output capacity to 3.5mn b/d by 2018, according to an independent
report sponsored by Abu Dhabi's Department of Economic Development published in August 2010.
Abu Dhabi hopes to boost its onshore crude output capacity by around 120,000b/d during 2011. To meet
the target the state will need to increase the production capacity of Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore
Oil Operations (ADCO) from about 1.50mn b/d to 1.62mn b/d. The company has embarked upon a
US$5.3bn investment programme that could see its capacity reach 1.8mn b/d by 2017.
ADCO is looking to add 213,000b/d by 2012 from existing and new fields. An additional 200,000b/d of
output would be sourced from the producing Bab, Asab and Qusahwira fields, for which ADNOC is
looking to award contracts starting in 2012, according to remarks made by the ADCO CEO to Bloomberg
in October 2010. ADCO is shooting seismic surveys and is planning to drill an unspecified number of
exploration wells in 2011. In total, ADCO is looking to raise output by 400,000b/d to a total of 1.8mn b/d
by 2017.The average per-barrel cost of production for the additional capacity was estimated by ADCO at
US$6-7, but the incremental cost for some capital-intensive fields could rise as high as US$30/bbl.
Overall UAE crude production could reach 3.02mn b/d by 2015. We forecast total 2011 production
averaging 2. 92mn b/d (including gas liquids), providing exports of 2.22mn b/d. This represents a slight
increase from the 2010 level.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Gas Supply And Demand
Over the past decade, gas consumption in
UAE Gas Production,
Consumption And Exports
the UAE has virtually doubled, with Abu
Dhabi gas use rising more than 100%
(2000-2015)
during the period. The development of
gas fields also results in increased
production and exports of condensates,
which are not subject to OPEC
production quotas.
Dubai’s gas consumption has been
growing by nearly 10% annually, due to
the expansion of the emirate’s industrial
sector, a switch to gas by its power
stations, and the need for an EOR system
based on gas injection for its mature oil
e/f = estimate/forecast; Source: Historical data - BP Statistical
Review of World Energy; Forecasts – BMI.
fields. The UAE imports and exports gas
using a growing regional pipeline system and LNG. Overall UAE gas consumption is forecast to reach
77.26bcm by 2015. Production of gas is also on the rise, with at least 62bcm achievable by 2015, leaving
a net import requirement of around 15.76bcm.
Like other Gulf countries, the UAE's natural gas consumption is soaring on the back of rising residential
and commercial usage. Bloomberg quoted an ADNOC official as saying in October 2010 that ADNOC
aims to double output of LPG by 2015, targeting both the domestic petrochemicals industry and the
export market. For all these reasons, ADNOC is keen to maximise the value of associated gas by reducing
its use for oil field injection. ADNOC is also developing the Shah sour gas field.
ADNOC is looking into freeing up natural gas volumes by substituting carbon dioxide (CO2) in oil field
reinjection. EOR through gas injection is a key component of ADNOC's strategy to boost oil output.
ADCO's CEO told Bloomberg that the company has started a pilot project to substitute CO2 as an EOR
medium at the Rumaitha field, into which about 4.25Mcm/d of gas is currently injected. Successful CO2
substitution would allow ADNOC to channel about twice the amount of gas from its north-eastern fields
into the country's gas grid.
US independent Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) has been awarded the contract to develop the Shah sour
gas field in Abu Dhabi. Oxy will take a 40% stake in the project, while ADNOC will hold the remaining
60%. The contract award is a major step forward for the US$10bn project, which had been on hold since
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
ADNOC's former partner US major ConocoPhillips pulled out in April 2010. It also boosts the chances of
the Shah field's coming onstream in 2014/15.
The Shah gas project is aimed at monetising the sulphur-rich gas of the Shah field, located along the
UAE's border with Saudi Arabia. The gas contains around 30% hydrogen sulphide, making Shah much
more challenging to develop than a conventional deposit. The field will have capacity to produce
10.34bcm of gas annually, in addition to 50,000b/d of condensates, 4,400 tonnes per day (t/d) of natural
gas liquids (NGLs) and 10,000t/d of sulphur. Actual sales gas will reportedly be around 5.58bcm annually
once all the impurities are removed. The project hinges on whether the impurities can be stripped out and
commercialised or disposed of in a cost effective way. As part of its project plans, ADNOC had called for
the export of sulphur and condensate by-products through the port of Ruwais.
ADNOC has said that it plans to issue a tender for the development of the Bab sour gas field in around
2015. The announcement follows comments by a senior Total executive that the French major plans to
bid for the field when it is tendered. One of the world's largest onshore reservoirs, the field has more than
10 oil- and gas-bearing zones. Initially Abu Dhabi intended to award a deal to develop the field's sour gas
along with the Shah field development contract. Following a period of escalating cost projections and a
downgrading of the potential output volumes, however, the tender for the fields was cancelled in July
2007 in order to award the two projects separately.
Dolphin Energy has been supplying the UAE with an annualised 20.7bcm of Qatari gas since February
2008. The company has said that eventually the North field will supply the UAE with as much as 33bcm
per year. State-run Qatar Petroleum (QP) is holding discussions with Dolphin to ship up to 3.2bcm of
extra gas per annum from Qatar's North Field to the UAE. Discussions are expected to be finalised by
Q310, QP was quoted as saying by the National in late-2009.
Crescent Petroleum, based in the UAE, has said it is optimistic that it will finalise a gas import deal with
Iran, despite opposition from Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, Iran’s vice-president for parliamentary affairs.
Crescent Petroleum and Iran have been negotiating terms over gas supplies from Iran to UAE since 2006.
According to Hamid Zaheri, Crescent’s general manager in Iran, the two sides continue to disagree over
the price and volume of gas exports. Crescent has been looking to buy gas from Iran’s offshore Salman
field since 2006.
LNG
For a small country, the UAE has a complex gas equation. Traditionally a net gas exporter, the country’s
gas trade balance deteriorated rapidly in the late-2000s on the back of runaway demand. The UAE has a
three-train LNG terminal at Das Island operated by Abu Dhabi Gas Liquefaction Company (ADGAS),
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
which has a combined send-out capacity of 5.15mn tpa. There were plans to add two more trains but the
proposal has been shelved.
The federation became an importer of LNG for the first time in 2010 when the first commissioning cargo
was sent to an FLNG terminal contracted to provide gas to Dubai. With the vessel under contract for 10
years, the UAE looks set to remain both an exporter and a small importer of LNG.
Dubai is considering developing LNG export capacity with the aim of becoming a gas trading and
distribution hub, the manager of state-owned gas company Dubai Supply Authority (Dusup) Paul
Mason told Emirati newspaper The National in April 2011. Mason said that since the country has the
ability to import LNG, adding capacity to export would be the next logical step. The National added that
Dubai could subsequently look into trading gas-based derivatives such as gas futures contracts.
Refining And Oil Products Trade
The UAE is set to upgrade two refineries in order to meet rising domestic demand. According to the
IEA’s timetable for scheduled upgrades in global refining capacity, published in December 2008, the two
refineries to be upgraded are the Ruwais refinery, which will see a parallel and interconnected plant built
nearby, and the Jebel Ali refinery in Dubai. Ruwais is now set to be completed in 2014, while the IEA
report says the upgrade is scheduled to be completed in Q411.
Abu Dhabi’s investment arm IPIC and ConocoPhillips signed a deal in 2006 for a new refinery with a
500,000b/d capacity. Conoco pulled out in 2007 citing rising costs, and IPIC announced in March 2008
that the plant’s capacity would be reduced to less than 200,000b/d. Since then it has been looking for a
new European partner for the project but has reported no progress. In April 2011, IPIC managing director
Khadem al Qubaisi told Reuters that the company was going ahead with the refinery, with the project due
onstream in mid-2016. It is currently in the pre-front end engineering and design (FEED) stage, and a
FEED project management consultancy contract has been awarded to contractor Shaw Stone & Webster.
IPIC is now looking at financing options.
The Ruwais project upgrade looks even more secure, although it is uncertain whether capacity will be
expanded to as much as 817,000b/d.
Revenues/Import Costs
The BMI base case assumptions are that the OPEC basket oil price will average US$101.9/bbl in 2011,
falling slightly to US$95/bbl in 2012, and back to US$90/bbl in 2013-2015. With the volume trends
discussed above, these assumptions imply a fall in estimated crude export revenues from US$82.61bn in
2011 to US$73.71bn by 2015. As a shortage of domestic gas production is expected to mean net imports
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
of 15.76bcm by 2015, there will be costs of US$5.38bn, taking the end-period total for hydrocarbons
exports to US$68.33bn.
Table: UAE Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
2008
2009
2010e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
98
98
98
97
96
95
94
92
Proven Reserves, mn
barrels
97,800
97,800
97,800
96,760
95,695
94,618
93,531
92,433
Oil Production, 000b/d
3,088
2,750
2,849
2,920
2,949
2,978
3,008
3,015
Oil Consumption, 000b/d
654
616
682
699
716
734
752
771
Oil Refinery Capacity,
000b/d
673
673
685
685
735
735
835
935
2,434
2,134
2,167
2,221
2,233
2,244
2,256
2,244
94
61
77
102
95
90
90
90
Value of Petroleum
Exports, US$mn (BMI
base case)
80,492
45,142
58,478
79,395
73,243
69,648
69,492
68,329
Value of Oil Exports,
US$mn (BMI base case)
83,762
47,480
61,207
82,608
77,421
73,727
74,103
73,708
Value of Oil Exports at
constant US$50/bbl US$mn
44,424
38,941
39,545
40,534
40,748
40,960
41,168
40,949
Value of Oil Exports at
constant US$100/bbl US$mn
88,847
77,883
79,091
81,068
81,496
81,919
82,336
81,898
Value of Petroleum
Exports at constant
US$50/bbl - US$mn
42,558
37,017
37,782
38,958
38,549
38,693
38,607
37,960
Value of Petroleum
Exports at constant
US$100/bbl - US$mn
85,115
74,033
75,565
77,915
77,098
77,387
77,214
75,921
Oil Products Exports,
000b/d
-48
-10
-65
-82
-55
-73
-1
70
Gas Proved Reserves,
tcm
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
Gas Proven Reserves,
bcm
6,090
6,090
6,031
6,000
6,000
6,000
5,942
5,882
Gas Production, bcm
50.24
48.82
51.02
55.00
58.00
60.00
61.50
62.00
Gas Consumption, bcm
59.46
59.06
60.53
63.56
66.74
70.07
73.58
77.26
Gas Exports, bcm
-9.22
-10.24
-9.51
-8.56
-11.74
-12.07
-13.58
-15.76
-3,269
-2,338
-2,729
-3,213
-4,179
-4,079
-4,610
-5,379
Oil Proved Reserves, bn
barrels
Oil Exports, 000b/d
Oil Price, US$/bbl, OPEC
Basket
Value of Gas Exports,
US$mn (BMI base case)
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Table: UAE Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
2008
2009
2010e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
Value of Gas Exports at
constant US$50/bbl US$mn
-1,866
-1,925
-1,763
-1,576
-2,199
-2,266
-2,561
-2,988
Value of Gas Exports at
constant US$100/bbl US$mn
-3,732
-3,849
-3,526
-3,153
-4,398
-4,532
-5,122
-5,977
7.50
7.00
7.90
7.90
7.82
7.74
7.67
7.59
LNG Price, US$/mn btu
13
9
12
15
14
13
13
13
LNG Revenues, US$mn
(BMI Research)
2,636
1,776
2,544
3,350
3,092
2,900
2,871
2,842
LNG Exports, bcm
e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data - BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2010, Forecasts - BMI.
Other Energy
The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 77TWh in 2010 to 94TWh
by the end of the forecast period, with a balanced market if the country delivers the assumed 4.3% annual
growth (2010-2015) in electricity generation.
In 2007 the Emirates International Bank carried out a survey to ascertain whether the UAE will be able
to cope with increased electricity demand. It concluded that the UAE’s generating capacity would have to
increase by 60% by 2011, with the Dubai market growing rapidly. In 2009, the debt crisis facing Dubai
set back its growth potential and is likely to have slowed the rate of electricity demand growth.
It has been estimated that the UAE electricity sector will require at least US$8bn in investment over the
next six to eight years to meet growing demand, and the government has plans to expand its installed
capacity by more than 50% during the next decade.
BMI estimates suggest that end-2010 installed generating capacity of around 19.3GW could increase to
around 23.6GW by 2015, although government targets are considerably higher.
Conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation in the
coming years, with most power projects under construction or planned using gas. There is a long-term
possibility of diversification into nuclear, while other options are being considered in order to cap gas
usage.
Gross UAE power generation in 2010 was an estimated 90.5TWh, having risen an assumed 5.1% from
the 2009 level. BMI forecast an average 4.3% annual increase to 110.6TWh between 2010 and 2015 – all
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
of which will be thermal. The UAE’s thermal generation in 2010 was an estimated 90.5TWh, or 7.94% of
the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 8.03% of regional thermal generation.
Coal-fired generation is being considered by the UAE as an option to reduce dependency on gas, but a
lack of domestic resources and the size, cost and environmental implication of coal-fired facilities mean
they are unlikely to be built during the forecast period.
Nuclear energy is on the long-term agenda for the UAE, as it is one of several Arab states initiating
discussions with the UN nuclear watchdog over possible use of the technology.
The Abu Dhabi state-owned Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) in September 2010 chose
Swiss investment bank Credit Suisse as the financial advisor to its nuclear energy project in the UAE.
The UAE plans to build four nuclear power plants with a combined capacity of 5.6GW. In December
2009 ENEC awarded a deal worth up to US$40bn to a South Korean consortium to build the nuclear
reactors. The consortium including Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), Hyundai
Engineering & Construction, Samsung C&T and Doosan Heavy Industries was awarded a US$20bn
contract to build the reactors. Jointly operating the complex could net the consortium another US$20bn
over a period of 60 years.
Despite considerable solar generating potential, renewable energy is not expected to contribute
significantly to overall generation during the forecast period. The Abu Dhabi government is expected to
publish a broad energy policy that will emphasise its commitment that renewable energy will represent
7% of the total power generation capacity by 2020.
Abu Dhabi will build the world’s largest hydrogen power plant as part of an initiative to promote and
develop clean energy technologies. During the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, the
government announced its intentions of making an initial investment of US$15bn to implement a set of
projects aimed at emissions-free power generation. Given the increasing investment renewable
technologies are receiving worldwide, the government of the emirate hopes that this initial fund will
attract foreign investment to expand its ‘green plans’. Part of the fund will be invested in the hydrogen
power plant, but the most ambitious venture will be the Masdar Sustainable City, which will house
50,000 people. It will be completely reliant on renewable sources for its power needs, including solar and
wind. It will also be completely car-free as the aim is to produce no greenhouse gases.
UAE-based company Mulk Holding and Indian company Aditya Solar Power have signed a deal, worth
AED2bn (US$545mn), for the development of a 200MW solar thermal power project in the UAE. Mulk
Renewable Energy, a subsidiary of Mulk Holding, will supply and install solar thermal power plants for
Aditya Solar. The project will involve two phases. The first phase, with an installed capacity of 40MW,
will come online by 2012. The remaining 160MW capacity will come online by 2013.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Table: UAE Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
2008
2009
2010e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
Electricity Generation, TWh
82.0
86.1
90.5
93.7
97.9
102.3
105.9
110.6
Thermal Power Generation,
TWh
82.0
86.1
90.5
93.7
97.9
102.3
105.9
110.6
Primary Energy
Consumption, mn toe
76.5
75.0
78.8
81.5
84.8
88.2
92.1
95.8
f= forecast; na = not applicable. Source: Historical data - BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2010, Forecast - BMI.
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
The impact of oil prices on export revenues is considerable. Dependent on OPEC output policy, our
production forecasts look realistic, so fluctuations in the price of crude represent one of the biggest risks
for the UAE. The sharp rise in gas consumption and the recent need for net imports represents another
area of risk, as domestic supply may struggle to meet local requirements and export needs. Assuming a
flat US$50/bbl OPEC basket price, oil and gas export revenues in 2015 could be as low as US$37.96bn.
However, a US$100/bbl oil price scenario boosts petroleum export revenues to US$81.90bn in 2015.
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Between 2010 and 2020,
we are forecasting an increase in UAE oil production of 22.9%, with volumes rising steadily to 3.50mn
b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase
by 28.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the
country using 872,500b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 51bcm in 2010
to 70bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 62.9%, this provides a net gas
import requirement rising to nearly 30bcm over the period.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
The UAE has five refineries: two in Abu Dhabi operated by ADNOC, one in Dubai operated by ENOC,
one in Fujairah operated by Vitol and one in Sharjah operated by Sharjah Oil Refining. By far the
largest is the Ruwais plant in Abu Dhabi, which originally had capacity of 120,000b/d but has since been
expanded to 400,000b/d. A large part of the country’s refining capacity involves the processing of
condensate. Two of the three primary units at the Ruwais plant are condensate splitters, as is the Jebel Ali
refinery, which was built in 1999.
Table: Refineries In The UAE
Refinery
Capacity (b/d)
Owner
Completed
Details
Ruwais
400,000
ADNOC
1982
280,000b/d condensate
Jebel Ali
120,000
ENOC
1999
Condensate
Abu Dhabi
85,000
ADNOC
1976
Fujairah
80,000
Vitol
Sharjah
71,300
FAL Oil
1999
(GS, SK, Samsung)
2014
Total capacity
685,000
Planned additional capacity
Ruwais
400,000
US$8.46bn expansion
Source: Company data
Ruwais Refinery (Active)
The Ruwais refinery was originally built around a single 120,000b/d atmospheric distillation unit. An
upgrade project to expand capacity to 400,000b/d was completed in 2005, when the second of two
120,000b/d condensate splitters was installed. The upgrade included refits of existing units and expansion
of units for production of unleaded gasoline and low-sulphur fuel oil. The plant produces light products
mainly for export to Japan and elsewhere in Asia. Fuel oil from Ruwais is sold as bunker fuel by ADNOC
and also used for domestic power generation.
Fujairah Refinery (Active)
Oil trader Vitol bought a controlling 90% stake in the Fujairah refinery in 2007. The refinery has a
capacity of 80,000b/d and includes storage capacity of around 6.3mn bbl. Vitol claimed in early-2009 to
have made significant investments in the plant and is planning further expansions.
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Abu Dhabi Refinery (Active)
The Abu Dhabi refinery, also known after its location as Umm al-Nar, is also owned by ADNOC. The
refinery has a capacity of 85,000b/d. Since its construction in 1976, the Umm al-Nar plant has undergone
debottlenecking, as well as a recent expansion.
Ruwais Refinery (Planned)
Takreer is planning to build a new 400,000b/d refinery at its Ruwais site that will operate alongside the
existing plant. As well as fuels, the US$10bn refinery will also produce 1.1mn b/d of petrochemical
feedstock propylene. It will also include a base oils plant, which is scheduled to start commercial
production in 2013. Once complete, the plant will be capable of producing 500,000tpa of group three base
oils and 100,000tpa of group two base oils. The bidding process for the refinery contracts began in April
2009 and completion of the project is expected by 2014.
Takreer has already awarded a number of contracts for the project. In late-2009 South Korea's Daewoo,
Samsung Engineering and SK Engineering signed three deals worth a total of US$8.46bn to conduct
expansion work. The firms confirmed the award of the contracts in March 2010. Samsung won the main
US$2.73bn contract to build power and water facilities, SK won a US$2.1bn contract for a distillation
unit and Daewoo won a US$1.17bn tank farm deal. In August 2010 US firm Shaw Group was awarded
the project management contract for the base oils plan. This was followed in September 2010 by the
award of a US$623mn EPCC contract for an inter-refinery pipeline to GS Engineering & Construction
(GS E&C). The contract is expected to be completed by 2014.
Quality Energy Refinery (Proposed)
Quality Energy Petro Holding International, which is owned by a member of Abu Dhabi’s al-Otaiba
family, announced plans in February 2008 to build a US$13bn oil refinery in the UAE and seek Iranian
crude as feedstock. This would dramatically increase the refining capacity of the emirates, as well as
strengthening links with Iran. Quality Energy intends to build a 500,000b/d complex with the government
of Russia’s Chelyabinsk region, in which the company plans to invest US$100bn between 2008 and 2012,
according to Chairman Adil al-Otaiba. He explained that the Chelyabinsk government was negotiating
with Iranian authorities to provide crude for the UAE plant. Quality Energy was in talks with the rulers of
one of the UAE’s northern emirates about building the plant, he said, without giving a date for the start of
construction or a final location. This suggests that plans are at a very early stage and may not come to
fruition, given the complex multi-party nature of the proposal.
Fujairah Refinery (Proposed)
Abu Dhabi government-owned IPIC is moving ahead with plans to build a 200,000b/d refinery in
Fujairah, the UAE's easternmost emirate. The project will be integrated with the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil
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Pipeline (ADCOP), which is due onstream in mid-2011, giving Fujairah secure access to feedstock, a
major selling point should IPIC attempt to bring in an Asian partner.
The Fujairah project was launched in 2006 when the emirate signed a deal with IPIC and US major
ConocoPhillips to build a 500,000b/d refinery. Citing rising costs, Conoco pulled out of the project in
2007, forcing IPIC to scale back its ambitions and reduce planned capacity to 200,000b/d. The refinery
will be supplied with crude via the 400km ADCOP, with first exports due in H211 and full capacity set to
be reached in early 2012. When the refinery is built, ADCOP will supply it with UAE crudes such as
Murban, Upper Zakum and Dubai. As well as being able to source crude from the pipeline, the Fujairah
refinery will also achieve economies of scale by sharing deepwater export terminals with ADCOP.
Oil Pipelines
The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) is expected to start operations at some point in 2011. The
400km-long pipeline has a capacity of 1.8mn b/d. Its construction is being led by a subsidiary of state-run
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) on behalf of International Petroleum Investment
(IPIC), an Abu Dhabi government-backed firm. ADCOP runs from the onshore Habshan oil field to
Fujairah, which lies on the Gulf of Oman - the only emirate in the UAE to do so. Fujairah's tanks are
expected to be able to store up to 1mn bbl of Abu Dhabi crude. ADCOP's rationale is geographic, as it
will allow Abu Dhabi, which produces 95% of the UAE's crude oil, to bypass the world's most important
crude oil bottleneck - the Strait of Hormuz. At peak capacity, ADCOP could convey about 85% of the
UAE's crude exports directly to the Gulf of Oman.
Gas Storage Facilities
Dubai began the construction of its US$1bn LNG storage facility in 2008. The Dubai Multi Commodities
Centre (DMCC) hopes that the facility, which will be located at Techno Park in Dubai, will be used to
launch an LNG derivatives market. The project is operated by a JV between DMCC and LNG Impel,
which was formed in May 2006. DMCC, as an equity-providing owner, will only hold a 10% stake in the
project. Impel will own around 20-30%, with customers having the right to buy equity stakes.
The project is expected to eventually have a storage capacity of between 1.1bcm and 1.8bcm, depending
on how many customers the facility will have. No regasification facilities have been planned. DMCC will
select about 10 companies that will use the facilities on a long-term basis. In November 2006, the project
attracted its first five customers, which allows the initial construction of 11 tanks, each holding 200,000
cubic metres. The three-stage project is set to be completed by 2013.
LNG
The UAE has been an LNG exporter since 1977 through its three-train Das Island terminal operated by
ADGAS. The federation became an importer of LNG for the first time in 2010 when the first
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
commissioning cargo was sent to an FLNG terminal contracted to provide gas to Dubai. With the vessel
under contract for 10 years, the UAE looks set to remain both an exporter and a small importer of LNG.
Das Island LNG (Active)
The UAE’s first and only LNG terminal, on Das Island in Abu Dhabi, came onstream in 1977 when it
shipped its first cargo to Japan. The first and second trains, which have a total capacity of 2.7mn tpa
(3.7bcm), were joined in 1994 by a third which now has a capacity of 3mn tpa (4.1bcm). Altogether, the
facility has a total liquefaction capacity of 5.7mn tpa (7.9bcm) and exported 7.01bcm in 2009, mainly to
Japan (6.75bcm) with the remaining volumes being sent to India and Portugal.
In November 2005, a JV between ADNOC, Japan’s Mitsui, BP and Total invited top global engineering
firms to submit technical and commercial bids for a feasibility study on replacing two of its ageing LNG
trains at Das Island with one ‘mega-train’. For its new ‘mega-train’ ADGAS was looking for a base
capacity option of 5-8mn tpa. There have also been plans to add two more trains but the proposal was
shelved owing to lower export potential.
Golar Freeze FLNG Vessel (Active)
Dubai started LNG imports from Qatar in 2010 following the arrival of the Golar Freeze FLNG vessel on
November 29. Following this commissioning cargo, full imports are expected to start in the summer of
2011to help supply Dubai’s period of peak gas demand. The FPSO vessel, which can hold 125,000cm of
LNG, has an annual regasification capacity of 5.1bcm per year. It will supply gas under a US$450mn
contract over a period of 10 years. The terminal will be supplied by Royal Dutch Shell under a 15-year
agreement with Dubai that envisions shipments of up to 1.5mn tpa of LNG. According to Shell, much of
the LNG will be sourced from Qatar.
Table: LNG Export Terminals in the UAE
Terminal
Trains
Capacity (mn tpa)
Capacity (bcm)
Completed
Ownership
3
5.7
7.9
1977
ADGAS
Das Island
Source: Company data, BMI.
Gas Pipelines
In April 2010, Dolphin brought onstream a new 48-inch, 240km-long pipeline, linking the company’s
receiving facilities at Taweelah in Abu Dhabi with Fujairah on the UAE’s eastern coast. The pipeline will
supply gas to the planned Fujairah 2 Power and Desalination Plant, which will be built next to the
existing Fujairah 1 plant at Qidfa. Fujairah 1 already receives gas from Dolphin via the company’s al AinFujairah pipeline. Dolphin supplies the UAE with gas from Qatar via a subsea export pipeline connecting
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
the company’s Ras Laffan gas processing plant in Qatar with the receiving facilities at Taweelah. The
pipeline currently carries 20.7bcm per annum, but has a design capacity to transport 33.1bcm.
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Macroeconomic Outlook
BMI View: Recently released GDP data from the National Bureau of Statistics in the United Arab
Emirates confirm our view on the extent to which the economy suffered as a result of the 2009 global
financial crisis. We have left our 2011 real GDP growth forecast of 3.3% unchanged for now, and
reiterate our belief that the UAE is among one of the only countries that has seen its growth outlook
improve since the start of 2011.
A more accurate picture of the United Arab Emirates' economy has emerged following the release of
2009 and 2010 GDP data, and has confirmed our views on the extent to which the global financial crisis
impacted the country's growth trajectory. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, real GDP
contracted 1.7% in 2009, before rebounding to expand 1.4% in 2010. In terms of the importance of
different sectors to the country, oil and gas now accounts for 33% the entire economy (compared to 43%
in 2001), while the respective figures for construction, real estate and financial services came in at 11%,
10% and 7% (compared to 7%, 10% and 4% respectively in 2001). Although a complete breakdown of
GDP by expenditure and output is only available for 2009 (we only have the headline growth figure for
2010), the available data nevertheless allows us to draw certain conclusions.
While seemingly mild compared to the recessions experienced in some of the more highly leveraged EM
economies in 2009, the real GDP contraction of 1.7% obscures the extent of the downturn in our view.
The headline figure would have been considerably worse had it not been for a massive improvement in
the country's net export position, which increased to AED95.1bn from AED33.2bn in 2008. This,
however, was driven not through a boost in exports, but rather by a collapse in imports, itself reflective of
a marked slowdown in domestic demand. We believe this trend broadly continued in 2010 along with the
recovery in oil prices, and was key to pushing headline GDP into positive territory.
Household consumption contracted 11.4% y-o-y in 2009. This compares to an average rate of expansion
of 12.4% between 2006 and 2008. Gross fixed capital formation also fell noticeably (declining 10.2% yo-y), which is hardly surprising given the fate of the domestic real estate market. Indeed, looking at a
breakdown of GDP by output, the real estate sector contracted by 18.7% y-o-y in 2009, far outpacing the
declines seen in wholesale and retail trade (-8/4%) and financial services (-5.9%). In 2010, we believe the
real estate sector remained weak, while the hydrocarbon and trade sectors began to tentatively recover,
and helped push the UAE out of recession.
Forecasts Remain Unchanged
As much of the new data simply confirms our core views on the UAE's economy, we are leaving our
forecasts unchanged at this juncture. We recently revised up our forecast for 2011 real GDP growth to
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3.3% from 3.0% previously, which was a result of our view that the country would be among the few to
actually benefit from the widespread social unrest unfolding throughout the Middle East and North Africa
(MENA) at this juncture. As one of only a few states which have so far avoided large-scale
demonstrations, the UAE has actually seen its risk profile improve since the start of the year. The outlook
for Dubai in particular has been given a boost as a result of the 'Arab Spring', as violent unrest on the
streets of Manama solidifies the former's reputation as a relative safe haven in a volatile region.
This improvement in risk perceptions has been reflected in the emirate's 5-year credit default swap
(CDS), which was trading at 329bps on May 23, compared to 415bps at the start of the year. That Dubai's
5-year CDS has narrowed as every other sovereign in the region has widened is testament to how the
fundamental reassessment of risk perceptions across MENA is actually benefiting the emirate. To be sure,
this is also confirmed by reports out of the UAE showing hotel occupancy rates improving and consumer
confidence hitting all-time highs at the start of Q211, underpinning our view that it is not simply the
domestic hydrocarbon sector that is benefitting from the regional crisis.
That said, although the outlook for the UAE has certainly improved over the past couple months, it is
important to keep in mind that the economy entered 2011 with some fundamental structural weaknesses.
Given Dubai's still faltering real estate market and large debt repayment schedule this year, growth
momentum will be inherently constrained in 2011 regardless of the push higher in oil prices or the
improved outlook for the tourism sector. We are particularly concerned that bank lending has yet to stage
a more pronounced improvement, with the total stock of credit outstanding in the economy continuing to
expand in the low single digits through Q1. As a result, while we are becoming increasingly bullish on the
outlook for the UAE going forward, we stress that the economy remains dependent primarily on external
conditions (including oil prices, tourists, and the trajectory of the Arab Crisis), and a recovery to pre-crisis
rates of growth remains off the cards for the time being.
Table: United Arab Emirates – Economic Activity
2008
2009
2010
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
Nominal GDP, AEDbn
1
1,156.3
992.8
1,143.6
1,238.3
1,285.6
1,382.4
1,478.4
1,599.6
Nominal GDP, US$bn
1
314.8
270.3
311.4
337.2
350.1
376.4
402.6
435.6
3.2
-1.7
1.4
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.7
70,200
58,820
66,156
70,164
71,394
75,290
79,006
83,924
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
Real GDP growth, %
1
change y-o-y
GDP per capita, US$
Population, mn
e
1
2
f
1
2
Notes: BMI estimates. BMI forecasts. Sources: UAE Central Bank/BMI. World Bank/BMI calculation/BMI.
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Competitive Landscape
ƒ
The main government vehicle is ADNOC, which dominates Abu Dhabi’s upstream oil sector. It accounts for
more than 70% of the UAE’s oil production and 43% of its refining capacity. It operates JVs with several
IOCs. Other major state companies are downstream participants Emarat and ENOC.
ƒ
IOC upstream involvement is extensive and set to rise as more Abu Dhabi upstream projects are offered.
Foreign groups are active in oil production, gas exports, lubricants supply and petrochemicals schemes.
ƒ
BP has stakes in Abu Dhabi upstream companies ADMA-OPCO and ADCO, plus the ADGAS gas export
business. Production net to BP in 2010 was 190,000b/d of oil. BP has its regional downstream hub in Dubai
and a lubricants blending plant in Jebel Ali. The BP Sharjah business is the largest private producer, processor
and seller of natural gas in the UAE, in partnership with the Sharjah government.
ƒ
Total holds 9.5% of onshore producer ADCO. It also has a 13.3% interest in offshore producer ADMA-OPCO
and owns 15% of GASCO, a processor of associated and non-associated gas. has Additionally, Total holds a
5% interest in LNG company ADGAS and has 24.5% of the integrated US$3.5bn Dolphin project. Total’s
production was 10,000b/d of oil and 0.1bcm of gas in 2009.
ƒ
Occidental Petroleum has been awarded the contract to develop the Shah sour gas field in Abu Dhabi. Oxy
will take a 40% stake in the project, while ADNOC will hold the remaining 60%. The contract award is a major
step forward for the US$10bn project, which has been on hold since ADNOC's former partner US major
ConocoPhillips pulled out in April 2010.
ƒ
ExxonMobil has a 9.5% stake in an onshore concession operated by ADCO and a 28% stake in the giant
Upper Zakum field, where it is pursuing a project to boost output from 550,000b/d to 750,000b/d. Exxon is
also a major supplier of lubricating oils in the emirates. Its net 2009 oil output was 239,000b/d.
ƒ
Fuels marketing in the UAE is dominated by Emarat and EPPCO, a 60:40 JV between ENOC and Caltex.
ENOC operates a 120,000b/d condensates refinery in Dubai, accounting for three-quarters of Dubai’s capacity.
ƒ
Shell holds a 15% stake in GASCO and 9.5% of ADCO. In 2010, the group produced 135,000b/d net in the
UAE.
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Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE’s Oil And Gas Sector
2009 Sales
(US$mn)
% share of
total sales
No. of
employees
Year
established
Ownership
ADNOC
na
100
na
1971
100% state
Dubai Petroleum Co
na
100
na
1966
ConocoPhillips majority
BP Abu Dhabi E&P
na
0.4
260
1926
100% BP
Shell Dubai
na
0.1
100e
1982
100% RD Shell
Japan Oil Development
na
na
22
1973
100% Inpex
Total
na
0.1
na
na
100% Total
Exxon
na
na
27
na
100% ExxonMobil
Emarat
na
na
1,500
1981
100% state
ENOC
na
na
3,500
1993
100% state
EPPCO
na
na
na
1980
60:40 ENOC/Chevron
Occidental
na
na
50e
2002
100% Occidental
Company
e = estimate; na = not available/applicable. Source: BMI
Overview/State Role
Under the UAE’s constitution, each emirate controls its own oil production and resource development.
The lion’s share of UAE production comes from the emirate of Abu Dhabi, which accounts for around
95% of the country’s oil and gas reserves. Minor reserves are also held by Dubai, Sharjah and Ras al
Khaimah, in that order. More than half of Abu Dhabi’s oil production is generated by state-owned
ADNOC. The second main producer is Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Company (ADMA-OPCO).
Dubai Petroleum Company (DPC) is the main upstream operator in Dubai. The state-owned Dubai
Natural Gas Company (DUGAS) is responsible for processing natural gas produced in Dubai’s offshore
oil fields, as well as the gas piped from Sharjah.
Licensing And Regulation
IOCs from Japan, France, the UK and other countries own up to 40% of the energy sector in Abu Dhabi,
one of the only Gulf oil producers to have retained foreign partners on a production-sharing basis.
ADNOC holds the majority stake in all upstream oil ventures and is currently planning a limited further
opening of oil production to foreign firms. The initial asset sale involved 28% of the offshore Upper
Zakum field to US major ExxonMobil in 2007. For Abu Dhabi, the Upper Zakum project is crucial to its
capacity expansion plans, with ExxonMobil currently planning to bring the field onstream in 2013 or
even later. ADNOC is planning to spend US$10bn between 2010 and 2017 on boosting oil production
capacity by 30%.
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The UAE is considering revising its system of oil and gas concessions to spur technological development
and introduce more competition into its upstream segment. Several options have been considered for the
concessions, including splitting them into their individual fields and issuing competitive tenders for the
fields’ development. Although the concessions are not due to expire until 2014 at the earliest, it is
expected that renegotiations will begin early. This may provide an opportunity for smaller players to get a
toehold in the UAE’s upstream segment and may open the door for NOCs, particularly from Asia, to get
involved. This was borne out by the upstream MoU signed between ADNOC and South Korea’s KNOC
in March 2011. Nevertheless, the UAE is unlikely to take any action that will put at risk its solid
relationship with existing IOC partners.
Government Policy
Abu Dhabi’s state energy investment vehicle, International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC), is a
sizeable energy investor, with an asset portfolio of US$16-20bn by mid-2009. In June 2009, IPIC
announced plans to raise its investment target to US$30bn after selling its stake in British bank Barclays
for US$2.5bn. In June 2009, CEO Khadem al-Qubaisi stated that IPIC was working alongside its
subsidiary Aabar on 30-40 investment deals in the energy sector and other industries including shipping.
He also said that IPIC planned to proceed with building refineries in the UAE and Pakistan and was
considering how to integrate operations at the two plants.
Fuel Prices
In August 2010, the federal government set up a committee of UAE oil companies to monitor fuel prices
in an effort to reduce losses incurred by retailers. This led to speculation that the country was starting to
relax price controls, and a subsequent report in the Arab Times claimed that ADNOC was planning to
increase gasoline prices. Even the modest increase to US$0.52 per litre outlined in the report would lift
prices above those in most other Gulf states, although ADNOC rejected the newspaper's claims.
Longer term, however, fuel price liberalisation may be unavoidable. The elimination of price controls
would help to slow the pace of UAE's oil consumption, which has grown steadily for several decades on
the back of cheap gasoline. Moves by Abu Dhabi and the federal government place downside risk on our
forecasts for UAE oil consumption, which we currently see growing continuously through to 2020.
International Energy Relations
The UAE could become an energy transit country after Iran and Bahrain agreed on a framework deal in
October 2008 that would see Iran export 10.3bcm of gas to Bahrain using the emirates’ pipeline
infrastructure. The gas would be sourced from Iran South Pars field, which in the future could also supply
the Emirates’ needs. However, cooperation between Iran and UAE became strained in October 2009,
when Iranian parliamentarians called for a 2001 contract to supply gas to the UAE to be cancelled,
following a longstanding dispute over pricing. According to a statement by the Iranian parliament’s
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energy committee spokesperson, Emad Hosseini, cited by Iran’s student news agency ISNA, several
parliamentarians think the contract should be revoked and the international ramifications accepted.
With its gas export options currently restricted by limited existing pipeline routes and no access to
technology to develop LNG infrastructure, Iran has been looking to supply its Middle Eastern neighbours,
striking deals with Oman in August 2008 and Bahrain later in the year. Plans to export to the UAE have
been in limbo for years, however, owing to the two sides’ inability to agree on a mutually acceptable gas
pricing formula.
The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum signed a 25-year
deal in 2001 for the supply of 16.9Mcm/d, or 6.2bcm per annum, of gas to the UAE. Exports were
supposed to begin at end-2005 from the offshore Salman field. The deal came under fire over the export
price, however, with the Iranian daily Sarmayeh saying that the price was just 20% of the price Turkey
pays for Iranian gas. Negotiations over the price of gas exports have therefore been ongoing since 2006
and Iran has yet to complete testing facilities at Salman that are required prior to the start of exports.
Crescent claims that the two sides conditionally agreed on a new price formula in September 2008 but
that there has been no progress since. While Iran has been threatening to annul the contract for some time,
Crescent has argued that the deal is internationally binding and said in July 2009 that it was pursuing
international arbitration. Whether this route is pursued or not, the dispute demonstrates the difficulties
that Iran is having boosting its gas exports, even to its near neighbours.
International Investments
IPIC is considering taking a stake in the Nabucco gas pipeline project, according to an August 10 2010
report in Austrian newspaper Salzburger Nachrichten. The move would make IPIC the seventh
stakeholder in the project and the first from the Middle East. The Nabucco project has struggled to secure
adequate gas supplies from the Caspian region and the entry of a significant Middle Eastern investor
could symbolise a recognition that Nabucco will have to look to the region for addition gas supplies.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Table: Key Upstream Players
Oil production
(000b/d)
Market share (%)
Gas production
(bcm)
Market share (%)
1,650e
72
na
na
70e
3
na
na
BP Abu Dhabi E&P/BP
190*
8
0.5*
1
ExxonMobil
239e
10
Na
Na
26e
1
Na
Na
Total
10
0.4
0.1
0.2
GASCO
Na
Na
48e
98
135*
6
Na
na
Company
ADNOC
Dubai Petroleum
Establishment
Japan Oil Development
Royal Dutch Shell
e = estimate; na = not available/applicable. Source: BMI, Company data 2009, *2010
Table: Key Downstream Players
Refining capacity
(000b/d)
Market share (%)
Retail outlets
Market share (%)
ADNOC
205
43
na
na
ENOC
120
25
166
na
Vitol
80
17
na
na
Sharjah Oil Refining Co
71
15
na
na
Emarat
na
Na
171
na
Company
e = estimate; na = not available/applicable. Source: BMI, Company data
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Company Monitor
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)
Company Analysis
Address
ƒ
Abu Dhabi National Oil
Company (ADNOC)
PO Box 898
Abu Dhabi
United Arab Emirates
state in terms of JVs. The upside potential over the near term is arguably less
ƒ
Tel: +971 (2) 602 0000
than that for other regional producers, suggesting slower growth in terms of
ƒ
Fax: +971 (2) 602 3389
volumes and revenues than seen in neighbouring Gulf States. However, the
ƒ
www.adnoc.ae
ADNOC has considerable experience in working alongside IOCs in upstream
oil projects, with Abu Dhabi being the most mature Middle Eastern OPEC
low-risk nature of the UAE and the strong relationships between the state and
foreign entities should mean continuing involvement of the IOCs in JV
Operating Statistics
development projects.
ƒ
Year established: 1971
SWOT Analysis
Strengths:
Major domestic oil and gas producer
Unrivalled access to exploration acreage
Well established partnerships with IOCs
Substantial share of downstream oil segment
Downstream gas and petchems diversification
Weaknesses:
Limited financial and operational freedom
Some cost and efficiency disadvantages
Opportunities:
Untapped upstream production potential
Petchems/refinery expansion opportunities
Large areas of under-explored territory
Threats:
Lack of medium-term oil output growth
Changes in OPEC/national energy policy
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Market Position
ADNOC is an integrated oil company established in 1971 by the emirate of Abu Dhabi, the site of 94% of
the county’s crude reserves. The company and its subsidiaries are responsible for the E&P of oil and gas,
providing support services to the hydrocarbons industry, the operation of oil refineries and gas processing
facilities, chemicals and petrochemicals plants, and the storage and distribution of refined products.
According to its website, ADNOC currently manages and oversees production of more than 2.7mn b/d. In
the gas segment, the biggest project is the Shah sour gas development. ADNOC is currently looking for a
partner for the Shah project, reportedly Shell, after ConocoPhillips dropped out in April 2010,
Offshore oil and gas fields in the emirate are operated by Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Company
(ADMOC), which is jointly owned by ADNOC (60%), BP (14.6%), Total (13.3%) and JODCO (12%).
The company’s main assets are the Umm Shaif and Zakum oil fields, with the latter ranked among the 10
largest fields in the world. Onshore oil exploration is managed by the Abu Dhabi Company for
Onshore Oil Operations (ADCO), which is owned by ADNOC (60%) and BP, Shell, Total and
ExxonMobil with 9.5% stakes each and privately owned independent Partex owning the remaining 2%.
Group subsidiary Abu Dhabi Oil Refining Company (Takreer) operates two refineries, the 145,000b/d
Ruwais refinery, which produces light products chiefly for export to Japan and India, and the 90,000b/d
Umm Al Nar facility.
Abu Dhabi Gas Industries (GASCO) is responsible for processing associated and non-associated gas
from the Emirate’s onshore oil production, with production in excess of 40.8bcm of gas, 140,000b/d of
condensate and 4,000 tonnes of sulphur. It is jointly owned by ADNOC (68%), Total (15%), Shell (15%)
and Partex (2%). Gas is supplied to around 20 customers including power plants, ADNOC’s group
companies and the entire Ruwais industrial estate.
Strategy
ADNOC should see solid rather than spectacular growth over coming years, with a number of projects
planned with IOC partners. The firm has plans to invest US$10bn in various projects over 2010-2017.
ADNOC aims to boost offshore oil production by 30% by 2017. With a spate of oilfield development
contracts expiring by 2014, ADNOC’s decision to sign a preliminary deal with South Korea’s KNOC
indicates that oil majors can expect greater competition as they hope to win or extend field development
agreements with foreign investment-friendly ADNOC.
Rocketing domestic demand is providing the impetus behind a huge boom in Abu Dhabi’s gas industry.
ADNOC is seeking to boost Abu Dhabi’s gas output to meet burgeoning private consumption and
growing industrial demand. The emirate’s gas consumption has doubled over the past decade, spurred by
expansion of the industrial sector, a switch to gas by its power stations, desalination and petrochemical
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
projects and the introduction of EOR techniques based on gas injection for its mature oil fields. Gas
output is also being increasingly diverted to generate air conditioning for the UAE’s large service sector
during the peak summer months. Abu Dhabi continues to follow this trend it is on course to become one
of the world’s largest gas producers.
ADNOC's onshore subsidiary ADCO is looking to add 213,000b/d by 2012 from existing and new fields.
An additional 200,000b/d of output would be sourced from the producing Bab, Asab and Qusahwira
fields, for which ADNOC is looking to award contracts starting in 2012, according to remarks made by
the ADCO CEO to Bloomberg in October 2010. ADCO is shooting seismic surveys and is planning to
drill an unspecified number of exploration wells in 2011. In total, ADCO is looking to raise output by
400,000b/d to a total of 1.8mn b/d by 2017. The average per-barrel cost of production for the additional
capacity was estimated by ADCO at US$6-7, but the incremental cost for some capital-intensive fields
could rise as high as US$30/bbl. A key component of ADNOC's strategy to boost output is enhanced oil
recovery (EOR) through gas injection. ADCO's CEO told Bloomberg that the company has started a pilot
project to substitute CO2 for natural gas as an EOR medium at the Rumaitha field, into which about
4.25Mcm/d of gas is currently injected. Successful CO2 substitution would allow ADNOC to channel
about twice as much gas from its north-eastern fields into the country's gas grid.
Downstream, Takreer plans to double capacity at the Ruwais refinery, adding an additional 417,000b/d to
the existing 400,000b/d of capacity. Jasem Ali al-Sayegh, the general manager of ADNOC’s refining unit
Takreer, has said that the engineering and design study for the expansion should be completed by Q109.
The planned completion date is 2013, although this has been acknowledged as ambitious. Once expanded,
Ruwais will be integrated with a petrochemicals complex and a new oil lubricants plant, which is
currently being built by Takreer with Finland’s Neste and Austria’s OMV, and is due onstream in 2012.
As well as providing for 1.1mn tpa of feedstock supply to the nearby Borough petrochemicals plant, new
units at Ruwais will allow the company to reduce the sulphur content in its diesel, which, along with
gasoline, makes up around 35% of Takreer’s output.
Latest Developments
KNOC and ADNOC signed a preliminary upstream agreement in March 2011. Under the deal, from 2014
the state-run Korean upstream firm will be guaranteed stakes in ventures led by ADNOC to develop fields
in Abu Dhabi with recoverable crude reserves of more than 1bn barrels (bbl). The two sides have yet to
agree precisely which fields KNOC will be allowed to develop, with the deal expected to be finalised in
2012. The South Korean firm has also been given rights to exploit three undeveloped Abu Dhabi blocks
with estimated reserves of 570mn bbl. A contract for these blocks is expected to be signed by the end of
2011. The fields in these blocks may start production as early as 2013 at a rate of 35,000 barrels per day
(b/d), according to the South Korean statement.
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Takreer continues to make progress on the expansion of the Ruwais refinery. In February 2011, it
awarded contracts to a subsidiary of GTC Technology International to design and deliver mass transfer
equipment for the project, including crude distillation and residue catalytic cracking units. In August 2010
Takreer awarded US firm Shaw Group a contract to provide project management services. The contract
included services during the engineering, procurement and construction phase of the base oils plant,
which is scheduled to start commercial production in 2013. Once complete, the plant will be capable of
producing 500,000tpa or 689.17Mcm per annum of group three base oils and 100,000tpa or 137.83Mcm
per annum of group two base oils. The contract value was not disclosed.
ADNOC brought the Shah gas project back on track in January 2011 with the announcement that it would
be developed alongside the US’ Occidental Petroleum. The latter agreed to take a 40% stake in the
project, making it more likely that its gas will come onstream by 2014. Once operational, Shah is
expected to produce over 10bcm of gas, along with 50,000b/d of condensate, 4,400 tonnes per day of
NGLs and 10,000 tonnes per day of sulphur. The CEO of ADGDC revealed on July 12 2010 that deal
values for contracts related to the Shah gas project were 40-50% lower than expected. The development
indicated the degree to which contractors had to slash costs for energy projects in light of the 2008-09
global economic slowdown, and came as cost concerns forced ADNOC to alter the Shah project's sulphur
export plans.
Even after Conoco’s exit, ADNOC continued to advance Shah through the award of technical contracts.
In June 2010, ADNOC awarded two Shah-related contracts to US engineering firm Honeywell and UAEbased al-Jaber Energy Services. The value of the latter contract is US$300mn, while that of the former
remains undisclosed. In the previous month, ADNOC awarded Italy’s Saipem three EPC contracts
totalling US$3.5bn, for a gas processing plant, sulphur recovery unit and pipelines. South Korea's
Samsung Engineering was awarded a US$1.5bn contract for a utilities and offsite package, while a
consortium of Spain's Tecnicas Reunidas and India's Punj Lloyd won a US$463mn gas-gathering
package contract.
In November 2009, French services company Technip was awarded a US$415mn contract by Gasco for
EPC and installation work at the Asab-3 project in Abu Dhabi. The contract will include the supply and
installation of the booster compression station, transfer lines, debottlenecking of existing facilities and
diverting feed flow by installing a new compressor, transfer lines and other associated facilities. The
contract’s first phase is due to be completed by Q312 and the remaining phase by the end of Q213. The
project will accommodate nearly 4.25Mcm/d of additional associated gas from Abu Dhabi’s oil fields.
GASCO awarded a US$9bn EPC contract for the Integrated Gas Development (IGD) Project, known as
Habshan-5, in July 2009. Japan’s JGC and Italy’s Tecnimont have jointly received the US$4.7bn process
plant package comprising of five process plants. South Korea’s Hyundai Engineering & Construction
has been awarded a US$1.7bn utilities and offsite package. Britain’s Petrofac and South Korea’s GS
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Engineering has won a US$2.1bn contract to construct Ruwais’ fourth NGL train while US-based
Chicago Bridge & Iron will construct the Ruwais storage tanks for US$533mn. The project is due for
completion by end of third quarter of 2013. The new facility in Habshan-5 will have a capacity to produce
25.5mn cubic metres of gas, 12,000 tonnes per day of NGLs and 5,000 tonnes per day of sulphur.
In March 2009, a unit of ADNOC awarded a AED2.95bn (US$805mn) EPC contract to SK Engineering
to install gas compressors at the Bab field. SK will build three gas compression units at the onshore oil
field, with construction scheduled to be complete in April 2010. The compressors will allow greater
volumes of natural gas to be injected into the Bab field, with the aim of boosting oil production from
around 350,000b/d to 435,000b/d.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Dolphin Energy
Company Analysis
Address
Dolphin is in a unique position as a regional gas provider, as it links two
ƒ
regional gas distribution grids, Dolphin is creating a Gulf gas hub capable
Dolphin Energy Limited (DEL)
Abu Dhabi Trade Centre
Building
East Tower, second and third
floor
PO Box 33777
Abu Dhabi
United Arab Emirates
ƒ
Tel: +971 (2) 699 5500
of being expanded to handle larger volumes as domestic economies grow
ƒ
Fax: +971 (2) 644 6090
and more power generation switches over to natural gas.
ƒ
www.dolphinenergy.com
SWOT Analysis
Operating Statistics
Gulf states with the surplus fuel available in Qatar. The company will
become a leading supplier to the region’s power industry. The project
may allow Gulf States to save some of their domestic gas resources for
the lucrative LNG export sector. By linking into certain sections of the
Strengths:
ƒ
Year established: 1999
ƒ
No. of employees: 150
Key regional gas supplier
Involved in gas transportation systems
State and IOC involvement
Substantial volume growth potential
Weaknesses:
Substantial near-term expenditure required
Struggle for more supply contracts
Opportunities:
Scope for other nations to joint project
Substantial scope for long-term volume expansion
Threats:
Need for ongoing, high-level investment
Changes in Qatari energy policy
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Market Position
Dolphin Energy is a US$3.5bn long-term energy project developing gas fields in Qatar and Oman, which
will supply customers in the UAE. This is the first cross-border gas project in the Arab Gulf region. The
company is a JV between the state-owned Mubadala Development Company (51%), France’s Total
(24.5%) and the US’s Occidental Petroleum (24.5%).
Having come onstream in 2006, gas from Qatar’s giant North Dome field is being transported to the
company’s gas gathering and processing plant in Ras Laffan and then transited to markets in the UAE via
a 440km pipeline to Taweelah, Abu Dhabi, Fujairah and Jebel Ali. Dolphin has been supplying the UAE
20.7bcm of gas per annum since February 2008. The company has said that eventually the North Field
will supply as much as 33bcm. The long-term customers for Dolphin gas from Qatar are ADWEA (Abu
Dhabi Water & Electricity Authority), UWEC (Union Water & Electricity Authority), DUSUP (Dubai
Supply Authority) and from 2008, Oman Oil Company (OOC). Each has signed a 25-year gas supply
agreement with Dolphin Energy.
Strategy
Dolphin is taking advantage of the region’s gradual switch towards gas and appears to be outpacing this
growth with its own expansion initiatives. Obtaining a larger supply deal with Qatar is a priority.
In December 2009, Abu Dhabi's media reported that Dolphin was negotiating with QP for 3.2bcm of
additional gas volumes from Qatar's giant North Field, and was hoping to conclude a deal by Q310. At
the time of writing, no agreement had been reached. Qatar's massive expansion of its liquefied natural gas
(LNG) export capacity means that the country has little spare gas for its neighbours. Pricing once again is
the main issue. Given their low domestic gas prices, the Gulf states cannot match the sums offered to
Qatar by LNG customers, particularly in the lucrative Asia-Pacific market.
Latest Developments
On November 30 2010 Dolphin announced in a press release that it had finished building the TaweelahFujairah (TFP) pipeline which it said has a capacity of 16.5bcm. The 244km pipeline, built by Russia’s
Stroytransgaz, will deliver gas to Fujairah where it will supply two ADWEC-owned power stations.
In August 2009, Dolphin announced that it had raised US$4.1bn to refinance debt, help fund the
construction of its Taweelah-Fujairah pipeline and pay for refinancing-related fees. After raising US$3bn
from 25 financial institutions in April 2009, it has raised a further US$1.25bn from a debut project bond
issue in July. Dolphin’s majority shareholder, state-run Mubadala (51%), played a key role in raising the
financing.
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In July 2008, Dolphin awarded a US$418mn construction contract for the pipeline to Russia’s
Stroytransgaz for the Taweelah-Fujairah Pipeline (TFP) branch to eastern UAE. It came online in May
2010. The pipeline will supply gas to the planned Fujairah 2 Power and Desalination Plant, which will be
built next to the existing Fujairah 1 plant at Qidfa. Fujairah 1 already receives gas from Dolphin via the
company’s Al Ain-Fujairah pipeline.
Dolphin held talks in June 2009 with Qatar over receiving additional gas to meet demand in the UAE.
The company said in an emailed statement that additional gas volumes of 8.5-14.2Mcm/d could be made
available on an interruptible basis. It also confirmed that the plant at Ras Laffan is operating at full
throughput.
At the end of October 2008, Dolphin finally started exporting gas to Oman from the giant North Field in
Qatar, after the project incurred several delays due to technical difficulties on Oman’s side. Oman had
failed to complete the needed infrastructure for the pipeline to come onstream earlier in 2008, which
meant that in May the start date was pushed back until August/September and then to October/November.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Emirates General Petroleum Corporation
(Emarat)
Company Analysis
Address
As the dominant regional fuels distributor, Emarat is in an unrivalled
ƒ
Emarat – Emirates General
Petroleum Corporation
Sheikh Zayed Road
PO Box 9400
Dubai
United Arab Emirates
storage/blending facilities. Emarat is also establishing a strong position in
ƒ
Tel: +971 (4) 343 4444
gas distribution infrastructure. It is an ideal candidate for privatisation
ƒ
Fax: +971 (4) 343 3393
over the medium to long term.
ƒ
www.emarat.co.ae
SWOT Analysis
Operating Statistics
position to exploit the local oil demand growth and is able to diversify
internationally. Good relationships with IOCs and other regional operators
have provided exposure to new projects such as pipeline operation and
Strengths:
Dominant share of fuels retail segment
Major role in downstream oil supply infrastructure
ƒ
Year established: 1981
ƒ
No. of employees: 1,500
ƒ
Service stations: 171
Growing share of gas infrastructure operation
Weaknesses:
No refining or upstream involvement
Highly competitive lubricants market
Opportunities:
Domestic/regional growth in oil demand
Infrastructure expansion opportunities
Threats:
Changes in national/regional energy policy
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Market Position
Founded by the federal government of the UAE in 1981, Emarat markets and distributes petroleum
products throughout the country. The firm is the dominant regional fuels distributor and is looking to
expand into other downstream markets.
Emarat operates a network of 171 service stations as well as retailing aviation fuels and lubricants.
Emarat’s share of the lubricants market is approximately 18% and its products are exported to Lebanon,
Bahrain, Oman, Afghanistan, Jordan and Pakistan. The company directly manages oil terminals with a
combined storage capacity of 383mcm in Jebel Ali, Dubai, Sharjah, Ras Al-Khaimah and Fujairah. It also
manages two storage units with international partners, with combined capacity of 285,000cm.
The company also operates 360km of underground gas pipelines, supplying customers including power
plants and other industrial users throughout the five Northern Emirates with gas from the Sajaa field.
Strategy
The marketing and distribution of oil products remains the core focus of Emarat’s operations, but the
company has recently embarked on a new strategy of expanding and diversifying its investment base. To
this end, Emarat is keen to enter new partnerships with foreign partners that can provide expertise for
projects.
Latest Developments
In May 2009, Emarat started work on expanding the Fujairah storage unit for storing and distribution gas
oil, fuel, gasoline and jet fuel. The project will expand capacity from 50mcm to 250mcm as part of a
broader AED250mn initiative to boost storage volumes across the UAE.
June 2008 saw Emarat and Dana Gas complete the construction of the Middle East’s first common-user
gas pipeline in Sharjah. The partners, along with the three end-users – the Federal Electricity and Water
Authority (FEWA), Sharjah Electricity and Water Authority (SEWA) and Crescent Natural Gas Company
(a Dana subsidiary) – signed an MoU for the construction of the pipeline in January 2006. The first phase
of the project was completed in May 2006 and is delivering gas to the Sewa power station at Hamriyah.
The main pipeline, which is now onstream, is 32km long and connects the Sharjah gas hub at Sajaa to
Hamriyah, with annual capacity of 10.3bcm. Dana Gas and Emarat each have a 50% interest in the
construction, ownership and operation of the pipeline.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC)
Company Analysis
Address
As a partly integrated oil company with IOC involvement, ENOC is an
ƒ
Emirates National Oil
Company Limited (ENOC)
PO Box 6442
ENOC Complex, Sheikh
Rashid Road
Dubai
United Arab Emirates
ƒ
Tel: +971 (4) 337 4400
ƒ
Fax: +971 (4) 313 4102
ƒ
www.enoc.com
efficient operator in the growing regional energy market, with significant
potential to expand through investment and local demand. It has good
exposure to the retail segment, while ENOC’s stake in Dragon Oil brings
with it some growing upstream volumes from Turkmenistan. Refining
capacity can be upgraded and enlarged, while a significant role in LPG
supply provides another source for revenue expansion.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths:
Operating Statistics
Significant domestic oil refiner
ƒ
Year established: 1993
Substantial fuels market share
ƒ
No. of employees: 3,500
ƒ
Refining capacity:
120,000b/d
ƒ
Service stations: 166
Equity investment in Dragon Oil
Weaknesses:
No direct local oil/gas production
Rising investment requirement
Opportunities:
Rising local/regional energy demand
Refinery upgrade/expansion
Increasing share of fuels retail segment
Threats:
Developing regional refining capacity surplus
Changes in national/regional energy policy
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Market Position
ENOC is a diversified conglomerate, wholly owned by the emirate of Dubai. It operates 30 active
subsidiaries and JVs in the oil and gas sector in the UAE and overseas. ENOC also holds interests in the
shipping, aviation, real estate, IT, food and travel sectors.
Upstream interests include Dubai Natural Gas Company (DUGAS), which started commercial
production of LPG in 1980 and is in charge of LPG exports, as well as sending dry fuel gas offshore as
fuel for Dubai Petroleum Company (DPC) and DUGAS production platforms. LPG is distributed
domestically through Emirates Gas, which owns bottling plants in Jebel Ali, Ajman and Fujairah, and
distribution centres in Dubai and Umm Al Quwain. ENOC also has a 52% shareholding in Dragon Oil,
which is developing the Cheleken Block in Turkmenistan. Dragon Oil produced 42,000b/d of crude at the
offshore field in 2009. ENOC’s attempts to mount a full takeover of Dragon was rebuffed by the latter’s
shareholders in December 2009.
In the downstream segment, ENOC Processing Company LLC (EPCL) operates the company’s
120,000b/d refinery in Jebel Ali. The plant processes light crude and condensate into LPG, naphtha, jet
fuel, diesel oil and fuel oil for domestic and export markets. A US$850mn project to add a reformer and
hydrotreater is currently being implemented at the plant. The company’s international refining and
marketing subsidiaries include crude sourcing and trading units in Singapore and the UK.
Downstream retail unit ENOC Retail operates a network of 166 ENOC- and EPPCO-branded service
stations throughout Dubai and the northern emirates, as well as storage terminals in Jebel Ali and
Fujairah. Another downstream unit EPPCO Projects was formed in 1996 to expand into aviation
refuelling and lubricants manufacturing and marketing in the UAE. The first of its two divisions, EPPCO
Aviation, supplies UAE airports and operates a 60km jet fuel pipeline that runs from Jebel Ali to Dubai
International Airport. The second, EPPCO Lubricants, is a JV between ENOC and Chevron al Khaleej
and markets ENOC and Caltex-branded lubricants and greases in the UAE.
Strategy
The firm’s recent moves indicate a concentration on the downstream, where we expect the company to
make most progress. There is potential for growth in refining and LPG operations. ENOC is also
diversifying internationally and is aiming for rapid expansion in the Asia Pacific region. Dragon Oil is
also seeking to acquire interests in other upstream assets overseas, so ENOC could have an opportunity to
boost its production in future via that route.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
ExxonMobil
Company Analysis
Address
Given ExxonMobil’s significant investments in Iraq and Qatar, and hopes for
ƒ
a service contract from Project Kuwait, the UAE is not a linchpin of the
ExxonMobil UAE
PO Box 33369 Jebel Ali,
Atrium Building,
company’s Middle East strategy. However, success in achieving production
Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai
goals at Upper Zakum could create further opportunities for ExxonMobil in
ƒ
Tel: +971 4 343 1400
the Middle East’s fifth-largest crude oil reserve-holder, and one with a
ƒ
Fax: +971 4 343 7496
rapidly growing economy. At the least, ExxonMobil’s activities in the UAE
ƒ
http://www.exxonmobil.com
could eventually add a further 450,000b/d of liquids output to its current
portfolio, based on targets for Upper Zakum.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths:
Significant regional profile
Opportunity to balance gas-centric Qatari production
Major lubricants supplier
Weaknesses:
Narrow presence in the UAE
Opportunities: Output growth potential from Upper Zakum
Access to the UAE’s increasingly dynamic economy
Threats:
Financial Statistics (Group)
Revenues:
ƒ
US$301.5bn (2009)
ƒ
US$459.6bn (2008)
ƒ
US$390.3bn (2007)
Net income:
ƒ
US$19.3bn (2009)
ƒ
US$45.2bn (2008)
ƒ
US$40.6bn (2007)
Operating Statistics
Oil production:
ƒ
239,000b/d (2009)
Highly restrictive upstream investment environment
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Market Position
ExxonMobil is involved in two oil concessions in Abu Dhabi: the offshore Upper Zakum field, which
covers around 780sq km, and a 1,620sq km onshore oil concession. ExxonMobil is also a major
lubricants supplier in the UAE.
The focus of Exxon’s upstream efforts is the offshore Upper Zakum field, for which Exxon signed a 20year deal with the Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC) and ADNOC in 2006, on fiscal terms consistent
with Exxon’s other interests in Abu Dhabi. Exxon’s local subsidiary gained 28% of ADNOC’s 88%
equity stake, while Japan Oil Development Company (JODCO) continued to hold its 12% interest.
Upper Zakum is one of the world’s largest oil fields, with around 50bn bbl of original oil-in-place. The
project aims to boost the field’s output from 550,000b/d to 750,000b/d by 2015, and then further to 1.2mn
b/d. The field is operated by the Zadco consortium, representing the US, Japanese and Emirati operators.
Net production from Upper Zakum to Exxon in 2009 was 127,000b/d.
Exxon has a 9.5% stake in the onshore block, which is operated by ADCO (ADNOC’s upstream
subsidiary) and produced 112,000b/d of oil net to Exxon in 2009. Its stake in the project is governed by a
75-year oil concession agreement executed in 1939 and subsequently amended through various
agreements with the government of Abu Dhabi.
Strategy
ExxonMobil’s Middle East strategy is centred on Qatar’s LNG sector, where it has significant
investments through Qatargas, RasGas and other ventures. The company has also secured a high-profile
service contract for the development of Iraq’s West Qurna field, and hopes to win an elusive upstream
deal for Kuwait’s northern oil fields. As a result, the UAE does not occupy centre-stage in ExxonMobil’s
larger plans. However, success at Upper Zakum could add a further 450,000b/d to the company’s liquids
portfolio, if the field achieves its target output of 1.2mn b/d.
Latest Developments
At end-2009 the company reported six net development wells as having been completed at its UAE
assets. Its net output that year was 239,000b/d.
A senior Zadco official said in October 2009 that the company intends to offer contracts worth up to
US$12bn in 2010 to increase production capacity at the Upper Zakum oil field, according to a Reuters
report. The investment in production, which will be split into two phases, is expected to increase output
capacity at the field by 40% by 2015. Speaking to reporters at a MEED conference, Zadco development
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
manager Salah al-Bufalah was quoted by Reuters as saying that the cost of the overall scheme is around
US$10-12bn. Speaking to Emirates Business at the same conference, he was reported as saying that the
expansion costs would fall from an earlier-budgeted US$12-18bn to US$10-15bn. He did not clarify
which of the two reports gave the correct figures. He said that the project, known as '750K', would
increase capacity from the existing 500,000b/d to 750,000b/d. During the interview he also commented
that Zadco was planning to increase the capacity of Upper Zakum by 40%, although he did not explain
the 50,000b/d discrepancy between these two figures.
Al-Bufalah was also reported by Business Intelligence Middle East as having said that Zadco's parent
company ADNOC would spend over US$50bn on oil and gas projects by Q412, with US$30bn going to
production and infrastructure and over US$20bn being spent on 'excavation, exploration and drilling'. He
said that the engineering phase of the project, being carried out by French engineering group Technip,
would be completed by the end of 2010.
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BP – Summary
BP has various interests in the UAE, with its upstream assets concentrated largely in Abu Dhabi,
including stakes in ADMA-OPCO (14.67%), ADCO (9.5%), ADGAS (10%) and Bunduq Company
(33.3%). ADMA-OPCO is the operator of the Umm Shaif and Zakum oil fields. ADCO produces crude
from the Asab, Bab, Bu Hasa, Sahil and Shah oil fields and is partly owned by BP, Shell, ExxonMobil
and Total – each with 9.5%. Production net to BP in 2010 was 190,000b/d of oil. ADGAS operates three
LNG trains capable of producing over 5mn tpa.
In refining and marketing, BP has its regional hub located in Dubai, as well as operating a blending plant
in Jebel Ali. The BP Sharjah business is the largest private producer, processor and seller of natural gas in
the UAE, in partnership with the Sharjah government. It operates three gas fields, a processing plant, gas
compression facilities and two liquid export terminals (condensate and LPG). Gas and NGLs are
produced from the Sajaa, Moveyeid and Kahaif fields. Unit Air BP supplies aviation fuel and lubricants
to Dubai and Sharjah international airports.
Rosneft – Summary
Russia's state-run oil producer Rosneft will invest US$630mn in the development of an onshore gas
concession in the UAE, alongside Crescent Petroleum, Rosneft chairman Igor Sechin said on August 21
2010. Sechin, who also serves as Russia's deputy prime minister, said that Rosneft and Crescent aim to
start production at the concession in 2013. At present all Rosneft's producing assets are in Russia and its
decision to allocate significant capex towards the Sharjah gas project underscores its desire to develop an
international portfolio.
The investment is to be directed towards gas drilling at a 1,200sq km onshore concession in Sharjah.
Rosneft and Crescent agreed the terms of a farm-out agreement for the licence in June 2010, with the two
companies holding 49% and 51% respective interests. At the time, the two parties agreed on an
investment of US$60mn towards initial exploratory activities, including the drilling of two wells of
4,500m depth.
Total – Summary
Total has been present in the UAE since 1939. The French firm has a 75% operating interest in the Abu
Al Bu Khoosh field and it holds 9.5% of onshore producer ADCO, which operates the Asab, Bab, Bu
Hasa, Sahil and Shah oil fields, the five major onshore fields in Abu Dhabi. It has a 13.3% interest in
offshore producer ADMA-OPCO, the operator of the offshore Umm Shaif and Zakum oil fields. Total
also has a 15% interest in GASCO, a processor of associate and non-associate gas from the emirate’s
onshore oil fields. ADGAS, in which the French major holds a 5% stake, set up the region’s first LNG
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
plant and also produces LPG and condensates. Total also has 24.5% of the integrated US$3.5bn Dolphin
project and is a major distributor of lubricants. In 2009, Total’s net production in the UAE was 10,000b/d.
Total announced in October 2010 that it planned to bid for the contract to develop sour gas resources at
the onshore Bab field in Abu Dhabi. The field is due to be developed after the giant Shah project, and
Abu Dhabi's determination to continue with Shah despite the withdrawal of Conoco reduces the
likelihood of further delays to Bab. Total's Upstream Middle East vice-president, Jean-Luc Guiziou, told
Reuters that the company believed its technology was better suited to Bab than to the Shah project, and
that Total was therefore not interested in Shah. Shortly afterwards ADNOC said that it plans to issue a
tender for the development of Bab in around 2015.
In April 2009, Total signed an agreement to extend its 15% participation in GASCO by 20 years.
ConocoPhillips – Summary
In July 2009, US major ConocoPhillips signed a landmark deal to develop sour gas reserves in the UAE.
Conoco held a 40% stake in the project to develop the Shah field, with ADNOC unit GASCO holding the
remaining 60%. The two companies were to share costs and although ADNOC did not reveal the value of
the agreement, it is expected that the project will cost at least US$10bn. In April 2010, however, Conoco
exited the JV. The high capex requirements proved to be too much for the company struggling to reduce
debt.
The deal was expected to allow Conoco to book new reserves from the Shah field, in line with similar
deals between ADNOC and other majors such as ExxonMobil and BP. Conoco had been active in the
Dubai upstream oil sector through the DPC JV but handed over all operations to the government of Dubai
in April 2007.
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary
The regional headquarters for Shell’s upstream and oil products divisions are located in Dubai, while the
Abu Dhabi office is responsible for Shell’s investments in the emirate. Shell holds minority stakes in two
production JVs in Abu Dhabi, including a 15% stake in GASCO and 9.5% of ADCO. These stakes expire
in 2028 and 2014, respectively. In 2010, Shell produced 135,000b/d net in the UAE, up from 127,000b/d
in 2009. It had produced 146,000b/d in 2007-08.
In May 2008, Shell signed a 15-year agreement with Dubai to sell the country 1.5mn tpa of LNG in the
peak demand summer period from 2010, using an FLNG vessel. According to Shell, much of the LNG
will be sourced from Qatar, while some volumes will come from elsewhere in Shell’s portfolio.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Shell was one of four IOCs to submit a bid to ADNOC to develop the Shah sour gas field but missed out
to Conoco, which was awarded the contract in July 2008. In 2010, media reports suggested that ADNOC
was attempting to woo the company as a JV partner to develop the Shah sour gas project, although
ADNOC eventually chose Occidental Petroleum in January 2011. In November 2008, Shell signed an
MoU with ADNOC to explore, develop and produce gas from offshore fields in Abu Dhabi.
Korea National Oil Corporation – Summary
KNOC and ADNOC signed a preliminary upstream agreement in March 2011. Under the deal, from 2014
the state-run Korean upstream firm will be guaranteed stakes in ventures led by ADNOC to develop fields
in Abu Dhabi with recoverable crude reserves of more than 1bn barrels (bbl). At current prices, the oil
would be worth about KRW110trn (US$98bn), Seoul said. The two sides have yet to agree precisely
which fields KNOC will be allowed to develop, with the deal expected to be finalised in 2012.
The South Korean firm has also been given rights to exploit three undeveloped Abu Dhabi blocks with
estimated reserves of 570mn bbl. A contract for these blocks is expected to be signed by the end of 2011.
The fields in these blocks may start production as early as 2013 at a rate of 35,000 barrels per day (b/d),
according to the South Korean statement. South Korea is expected to own up to 100% of the fields'
equity, and has the right to import all of their output, according to preliminary deal terms. Seoul has also
agreed to help store 6mn bbl of Abu Dhabi crude free of charge. The agreements were signed during a
visit by South Korea's president, Lee Myung Bak, to the UAE.
Although the KNOC-ADNOC deal is widely seen as a vote of confidence in KNOC's upstream abilities,
we believe that it is motivated more by a desire on the part of Abu Dhabi and Seoul to further strengthen
their close energy relationship. KNOC lacks the technical skills of industry majors such as ExxonMobil
and Royal Dutch Shell, which are currently active in Abu Dhabi's upstream segment. Consequently,
although KNOC is likely to receive good terms when its deal with ADNOC is finalised, we believe it
could join forces with a more technically savvy IOC to develop its Abu Dhabi blocks.
Dubai Petroleum Establishment – Summary
The erstwhile Dubai Petroleum Company (DPC) developed the offshore Fateh, southwest Fateh, Falah
and Rashid fields – Dubai’s only commercial hydrocarbons finds. Crude oil was first exported from Fateh
in 1969. Production from the emirate’s fields peaked at 410,000b/d in 1991, and output has subsequently
entered terminal decline. In a February 2010 statement, the Dubai government claimed that the emirate’s
four producing fields had remaining reserves of 4bn bbl and 117bcm of gas.
Until 2007, DPC comprised ConocoPhillip, Total, RWE Dea and Wintershall. However, their contract
expired that year and was not renewed, leading to DPC’s nationalisation by the Dubai government and the
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creation of the Dubai Petroleum Establishment. DPE does not issue production figures, but output as of
2010 was believed to be around 70,000b/d.
In February 2010, the Dubai government announced that a new oil discovery – named al-Jalila – was
made east of the producing Rashid field, and would start commercial production in 2011. No reserve
estimates or other details regarding the discovery were released.
Dana Gas – Summary
Sharjah-based Dana Gas was awarded a 25-year E&P licence for the Western Offshore concession off
Sharjah in March 2008. Dana paid US$120mn for the contract with the development phase of the project
expected to cost some US$55mn and the exploration costs estimated at around US$65mn. This is the
company’s first offshore upstream asset. The concession covers over 1,000sq km and includes the
development of the Zora gas field, which was discovered in 1979. In its exploration programme Dana will
undertake seismic studies, geological evaluation studies and exploration drilling. The development
programme includes the completion of drilling work, resuming the drilling of two horizontal wells that
were originally drilled by Crescent Petroleum, the installation of offshore platforms, and the construction
of an offshore pipeline.
Dana had planned to bring the field onstream in 2010, but said in April that year that first gas would not
be reached until 2011. Gas from Zora, which straddles the waters off Sharjah and Ajman, will be brought
onshore via a 30km pipeline to a processing plant in Sharjah’s Hamriyah Free Zone. Dana foresees a
start-up production rate of 1.4-1.7Mcm/d.
In FY2010, Dana Gas reported revenues of AED1.78bn (US$487mn) and a net profit of AED158mn
(US$43mn). Revenue increased from AED1.27bn (US$349mn) in 2009, while profits were up 79.55% yo-y.
Occidental Petroleum – Summary
In January 2011, Oxy was awarded the contract to develop the Shah sour gas field in Abu Dhabi. Oxy
will take a 40% stake in the project, while ADNOC will hold the remaining 60%. The contract award is a
major step forward for the US$10bn project, which has been on hold since ADNOC's former partner US
major ConocoPhillips pulled out in April 2010. It also boosts the chances of the Shah field's coming
onstream in 2014/15.
Japan Oil Development Company (JODCO) – Summary
Previously owned by Japan National Oil Corporation (JNOC), JODCO is now a 100%-owned unit of
Inpex. JODCO entered the UAE in 1973 by acquiring a stake in the ADMA concession from BP (now
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
12%). Between then and 1980 it acquired stakes in the development of the Upper Zakum field (12%), the
Umm Al-Dalkh field (12%) and the Satah field (40%). JODCO also holds 12% stakes in the Lower
Zakum and Umm Shaif fields.
Cosmo Oil – Summary
Japan’s fourth-largest refiner, Cosmo Oil, was the first non-Western company to enter the UAE’s energy
market. It has now been operating in Abu Dhabi since 1967 and has formed a good relationship with its
rulers. In January 2009, it was awarded a 20-year extension for its oil producing concession offshore Abu
Dhabi. The extension of the company’s operating rights followed a September 2007 acquisition of 20% of
Cosmo’s shares by IPIC, the emirate’s investment arm. According to a Cosmo official quoted by Reuters,
the contract prolongation may also entail additional exploration rights, although this was not confirmed
by the company.
In February 2011, Cosmo’s stakes in the Mubarraz, Umm al Anbar and Neewat al Ghalan oil fields were
extended by 30 years. These fields produce about 24,000b/d of crude. Cosmo also became the sole license
holder of the Hail field.
Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) – Summary
TAQA is a public energy company established in June 2005. The government of Abu Dhabi through
ADWEA owns 51%; ADWEA transferred 24.1% of its shareholding to the Fund for the Support of Farm
Owners in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. TAQA intends to make strategic and financial investments in
energy, water, infrastructure and mining sector companies and projects, whether within the UAE or
abroad. The company is rapidly expanding abroad and has been buying up producing and infrastructure
assets in the North Sea and Canada since 2007.
In early 2011, TAQA reported that it earned AED9.3mn from its oil and gas operations in FY2010, a 36%
y-o-y increase. Net profit in that year was AED1mn. In November 2010, TAQA restarted oil production
from the Netherlands’ offshore Rijn field 12 years after it was shut, adding about 3,500b/d to its
production portfolio.
CNPC – Summary
In November 2008, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed a US$3.29bn deal with
IPIC to build a 400km oil pipeline from the Habshan oil field in Abu Dhabi to the emirate of Fujairah.
CNPC’s two pipeline engineering and construction units will jointly build the 48-inch diameter pipeline,
which will have capacity of 1.5mn b/d. The project will also include one connecting station, one initial
station, one intermediate station, one terminal station and three offshore single-point-mooring devices. A
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local source told Zawya Dow Jones in March 2011 that Abu Dhabi would start pumping crude through
the pipeline in mid-2011, with initial exports expected in H211.
RAK Petroleum – Summary
Public UAE company RAK Petroleum was founded in 2005 with a focus on the emirate of Ras AlKhaimah. As well as its three concessions in the emirate (RAK B, RAK Saleh and RAK Onshore), the
company has four concessions in Oman and a single concession offshore Tunisia. RAK’s main assets are
the West Bukha oil and gas field and the Bukha gas field which together produce 0.36bcm each year and
10,000b/d of oil.
In October 2010, RAK signed a deal to acquire the Saleh field offshore Ras Al Khaimah, taking over field
operatorship from the Ras Al Khaimah Gas Commission (Rakgas) in exchange for 100mn shares in RAK
Education Company. RAK previously held a 40% stake in the field, which increased to 100% under the
deal. It expected to start field redevelopment in H111.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
A continuation of the reasonably healthy 2010-2015 oil demand trend is predicted for the 2015-2020
period, reflecting the underdeveloped nature of several key economies, plus ongoing wealth generation
thanks to robust oil prices and rising export volumes. The region’s oil consumption is expected to
increase by 15.3% in 2015-2020, down from the 17.2% growth achieved in the period 2010-2015. Over
the extended 2010 to 2020 forecast period, Qatar leads the way, with oil demand increasing by an
estimated 79.1%, followed by Iraq’s and Oman’s significant 62.9% growth rates. Israel lags the field, as a
result of greater market maturity and the lack of hydrocarbons income that stimulates economies
elsewhere in the region.
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Country
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
Bahrain
47.3
48.7
50.1
51.6
53.2
54.0
55.6
58.0
Kuwait
450.0
460.0
475.0
490.0
500.0
510.0
520.0
530.0
Iran
1,899.0
1,956.0
2,014.7
2,055.0
2,096.1
2,138.0
2,202.1
2,268.2
Iraq
810.3
850.9
893.4
938.1
985.0
1,034.2
1,085.9
1,140.2
Israel
265.3
269.3
273.4
277.5
281.6
285.8
290.1
294.5
Oman
77.8
81.7
85.8
90.1
94.6
99.3
104.2
109.5
Qatar
262.0
277.7
294.4
312.1
330.8
350.6
371.7
394.0
3,213.7
3,277.9
3,376.3
3,477.6
3,581.9
3,689.4
3,800.0
3,914.0
UAE
734.1
752.4
771.2
786.6
810.2
830.5
855.4
872.5
Other
703.8
707.3
710.8
714.4
717.9
721.5
725.1
728.8
BMI Universe
7,759.5
7,974.6
8,234.2
8,478.5
8,733.3
8,991.8
9,285.2
9,580.9
Total
8,463.3
8,681.9
8,945.1
9,192.9
9,451.3
9,713.4
10,010.3
10,309.7
Saudi Arabia
f = forecast. All forecasts: BMI.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Regional Oil Supply
A 13.35% gain in Middle Eastern oil production during the 2015-2020 period compares to the 24.4%
expansion seen in 2010-2015. Iraq is by far the biggest contributor to growth, with output forecast to rise
by as much as 326% between 2010 and 2020. Its nearest major rival, in percentage growth terms, is
Bahrain at 217%. In Qatar, liquids output should rise by 25.6%, with gas liquids volumes moving higher
as a result of increased gas production.
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d)
Country
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
75.0
82.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Kuwait
2,630.0
2,700.0
2,785.0
2,900.0
3,000.0
3,150.0
3,300.0
3,450.0
Iran
4,300.0
4,340.0
4,450.0
4,500.0
4,550.0
4,615.0
4,650.0
4,700.0
Iraq
4,438.0
5,379.0
6,218.0
7,297.0
7,628.7
7,976.9
7,976.9
7,976.9
Israel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Oman
900.0
880.0
853.6
810.9
770.4
731.9
695.3
660.5
Qatar
1,860.4
1,943.6
1,998.8
2,032.3
2,137.9
2,160.2
2,182.5
2,204.8
10,706.0
10,866.6
11,029.6
11,195.0
11,363.0
11,647.0
11,962.7
11,962.7
2,978.4
3,008.2
3,015.0
3,100.0
3,185.0
3,250.0
3,400.0
3,500.0
42.0
43.0
44.0
46.0
47.0
48.0
50.0
51.0
BMI Universe
27,887.9
29,199.5
30,440.1
31,930.3
32,735.0
33,631.1
34,267.4
34,555.0
Total
27,929.9
29,242.5
30,484.1
31,930.3
32,735.0
33,631.1
34,267.4
34,555.0
Bahrain
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Other
f = forecast. na = not applicable. All forecasts: BMI.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Regional Refining Capacity
The Middle East is set for a 81.9% increase in crude distillation capacity between 2010 and 2020,
dominating the expansion of the world’s over-stretched refining industry. Cheap and plentiful local crude
supplies make it the region of choice for refinery investment. Iraq, Oman and Kuwait have particularly
ambitious plans. The region’s importance as a net exporter of refined products will rise, as capacity
growth is more rapid than the expansion of domestic oil markets.
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Country
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
Bahrain
262.0
262.0
302.0
302.0
302.0
302.0
302.0
302.0
Kuwait
990.0
990.0
1,150.0
1,150.0
1,150.0
1,415.0
1,415.0
1,415.0
Iran
2,502.0
2,792.0
3,152.0
3,302.0
3,302.0
3,302.0
3,302.0
3,302.0
Iraq
1,150.0
1,300.0
1,300.0
1,450.0
1,650.0
1,650.0
1,800.0
1,800.0
Israel
320.0
320.0
320.0
320.0
350.0
350.0
350.0
350.0
Oman
205.0
205.0
290.0
290.0
290.0
290.0
290.0
290.0
Qatar
520.0
586.0
586.0
586.0
586.0
586.0
586.0
586.0
2,297.0
2,697.0
3,097.0
3,297.0
3,297.0
3,497.0
3,697.0
3,697.0
UAE
735.0
835.0
935.0
1,085.0
1,235.0
1,235.0
1,235.0
1,235.0
Other
843.0
886.0
930.0
976.0
1,025.0
1,076.0
1,130.0
1,187.0
BMI Universe
8,981.0
9,987.0
11,132.0
11,782.0
12,162.0
12,627.0
12,977.0
12,977.0
Total
9,824.0
10,873.0
12,062.0
12,758.0
13,187.0
13,703.0
14,107.0
14,164.0
Saudi Arabia
f = forecast. All forecasts: BMI.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Regional Gas Demand
Gas demand growth between 2015 and 2020, at 23.5%, is similar to the 2010-2015 growth rate (24.7%).
Between 2010 and 2020, the biggest rise in consumption will be seen in Iraq, Israel, Qatar and Kuwait.
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm)
Country
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
Bahrain
15.2
15.9
16.7
17.2
17.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
Kuwait
17.5
18.4
19.3
20.3
21.3
22.4
23.5
24.7
Iran
140.0
142.8
145.7
148.6
150.0
152.0
154.0
156.0
Iraq
8.0
9.0
11.5
13.0
14.3
15.7
17.3
19.0
Israel
7.0
7.0
7.0
8.0
8.0
8.6
9.2
10.0
Oman
19.0
20.3
21.0
22.0
23.1
24.3
25.5
26.7
Qatar
29.1
31.3
36.9
39.3
42.1
44.8
47.7
50.8
Saudi Arabia
89.0
95.0
96.0
104.0
110.2
117.4
126.9
126.9
UAE
70.1
73.6
77.3
81.1
85.2
89.4
93.9
98.6
Other
50.7
53.2
55.9
58.7
61.6
64.7
67.9
71.3
BMI Universe
394.9
413.3
431.3
453.6
471.9
492.3
515.7
530.5
Total
445.6
466.5
487.2
512.3
533.5
557.0
583.6
601.8
f = forecast. All forecasts: BMI.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Regional Gas Supply
A production increase of 25.8% is forecast for the Middle East region in 2015-2020, down from the
output growth of 41.0% recorded during the 2010-2015 period. Israel’s gas production is set to rocket to
12bcm by the end of the decade, with the next highest gas production growth rates over the period 201020 likely to be recorded in Iraq, Iran and Kuwait.
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm)
Country
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
Bahrain
15.2
15.9
16.7
17.2
17.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
Kuwait
14.6
15.0
15.3
16.1
16.9
17.8
18.6
19.6
Iran
165.0
185.0
185.0
205.0
205.0
225.0
240.0
265.0
Iraq
28.6
32.9
36.9
41.8
42.7
43.6
43.6
43.6
Israel
7.0
7.0
7.0
8.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
12.0
Oman
32.0
33.5
35.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
Qatar
160.0
170.0
179.0
185.0
186.0
190.0
194.0
198.0
Saudi Arabia
89.0
95.0
96.0
104.0
110.2
117.4
126.9
126.9
UAE
60.0
61.5
62.0
63.0
65.0
66.5
68.0
70.0
Other
7.2
7.9
8.7
9.6
10.6
1,160.0
12.8
14.1
BMI Universe
571.4
615.8
632.9
676.1
689.5
727.9
760.8
792.8
Total
578.6
623.7
641.6
685.7
700.1
1,887.9
773.6
806.9
f = forecast. All forecasts: BMI.
UAE Country Overview
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in UAE oil production of 32.6%, with volumes rising
steadily to 3.50mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020
is set to increase by 27.5%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the
period and the country using 599,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated
49bcm in 2010 to 68bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 57.8%, this
provides a net gas import requirement rising to 30bcm over the period.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Methodology And Risks to Forecasts
In terms of oil and gas supply, as well as refining capacity, the projections are wherever possible based on
known development projects, committed investment plans or stated government/company intentions. A
significant element of risk is clearly associated with these forecasts, as project timing is critical to volume
delivery. Our assumptions also take into account some third-party estimates, such as those provided by
the US-based Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the
Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and certain consultants’ reports that are in the
public domain. Reserves projections reflect production and depletion trends, expected exploration activity
and historical reserves replacement levels.
We have assumed flat oil and gas prices throughout the extended forecast period, but continue to provide
sensitivity analysis based on higher and lower price scenarios. Investment levels and production/reserves
trends will of course be influenced by energy prices. Oil demand has provide itself to be less sensitive to
pricing than expected, but will still have some bearing on consumption trends. Otherwise, we have
assumed a slowing of GDP growth for all countries beyond our core forecast period (to 2015) and a
further easing of demand trends to reflect energy-saving efforts and fuels substitution away from
hydrocarbons. Where available, government and third-party projections of oil and gas demand have been
used to cross check our own assumptions.
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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011
Glossary Of Terms
AOR
additional oil recovery
KCTS
Kazakh Caspian Transport System
APA
awards for predefined areas
km
kilometres
API
American Petroleum Institute
LAB
linear alkyl benzene
bbl
barrel
LDPE
low density polypropylene
bcm
billion cubic metres
LNG
liquefied natural gas
b/d
barrels per day
LPG
liquefied petroleum gas
bn
billion
m
Metres
boe
barrels of oil equivalent
mcm
thousand cubic metres
BTC
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline
Mcm
mn cubic metres
BTU
British thermal unit
MEA
Middle East and Africa
capex
capital expenditure
mn
Million
CBM
coal bed methane
MoU
memorandum of understanding
CEE
Central and Eastern Europe
mt
metric tonne
CPC
Caspian Pipeline Consortium
MW
Megawatts
CSG
coal seam gas
na
not available/ applicable
DoE
US Department of Energy
NGL
natural gas liquids
EBRD
European Bank for Reconstruction and
NOC
national oil company
EEZ
exclusive economic zone
OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
e/f
estimate/forecast
OPEC
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
EIA
US Energy Information Administration
PE
Polyethylene
EM
emerging markets
PP
Polypropylene
EOR
enhanced oil recovery
PSA
production sharing agreement
E&P
exploration and production
PSC
production sharing contract
EPSA
exploration and production sharing agreement
q-o-q
quarter-on-quarter
FID
final investment decision
R&D
research and development
FDI
foreign direct investment
R/P
reserves/production
FEED
front end engineering and design
RPR
reserves to production ratio
FPSO
floating production, storage and offloading
SGI
strategic gas initiative
FTA
free trade agreement
SoI
statement of intent
FTZ
free trade zone
SPA
sale and purchase agreement
GDP
gross domestic product
SPR
strategic petroleum reserve
G&G
geological and geophysical
t/d
tonnes per day
GoM
Gulf of Mexico
tcm
trillion cubic metres
GS
geological survey
toe
tonnes of oil equivalent
GTL
gas-to-liquids conversion
tpa
tonnes per annum
GW
gigawatts
TRIPS
Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property
GWh
gigawatt hours
trn
trillion
HDPE
high density polyethylene
T&T
Trinidad & Tobago
HoA
heads of agreement
TTPC
Trans-Tunisian Pipeline Company
IEA
International Energy Agency
TWh
terawatt hours
IGCC
integrated gasification combined cycle
UAE
United Arab Emirates
IOC
international oil company
USGS
US Geological Survey
IPI
Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline
WAGP
West African Gas Pipeline
IPO
initial public offering
WIPO
World Intellectual Property Organization
JOC
joint operating company
WTI
West Texas Intermediate
JPDA
joint petroleum development area
WTO
World Trade Organization
AOR
additional oil recovery
KCTS
Kazakh Caspian Transport System
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Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
BMI has revised the methodology of its Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings. Our approach has
been threefold. First, we have disaggregated the upstream (oil/gas E&P) and downstream (oil refining and
marketing, gas processing and distribution), enabling us to take a more nuanced approach to analysing the
potential within each segment, and the different risks along the value chain. Second, we have identified
objective indicators that may serve as proxies for issues/trends that were previously evaluated on a
subjective basis. Finally, we have used BMI’s proprietary Country Risk Ratings (CRR) in a more refined
manner in order to ensure that only those risks most relevant to the industry have been included. Overall,
the new ratings system – which is now integrated with those of all 16 industries covered by BMI – offers
an industry-leading insight into the prospects/risks for companies across the globe.
Ratings Overview
Conceptually, the new ratings system is organised in a manner that enables us clearly to present the
comparative strengths and weaknesses of each state. As before, the headline Oil & Gas BER is the
principal rating. However, the differentiation of Upstream/Downstream and the articulation of the
elements that comprise each segment enable more sophisticated conclusions to be drawn, and also
facilitate the use of the ratings by clients, who will have varying levels of exposure and risk appetite for
their operations.
Oil & Gas Business Environment Rating: This is the overall rating, which comprises 50% Upstream BER
and 50% Downstream BER:
Upstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Rating: This is the overall Upstream rating which is
composed of limits/risks (see below);
Downstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Rating: This is the overall Downstream rating which
comprises limits/risks (see below).
Both the Upstream BER and Downstream BER are composed of Limits/Risks sub-ratings, which
themselves comprise industry-specific and broader Country Risk components:
Limits of Potential Returns: Evaluates the sector’s size and growth potential in each state, and also
broader industry/state characteristics that may inhibit its development;
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Risks to Realisation of those Returns: Evaluates both Industry-specific dangers and those emanating from
the state’s political/economic profile that call into question the likelihood of expected returns being
realised over the assessed time period.
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Component
Details
Oil & Gas Business Environment Rating
Overall rating
- Upstream BER
50% of O&G BER
-- Limits of Potential Returns
- 70% of Upstream BER
--- Upstream Market
-- 75% of Limits
--- Country Structure
-- 25% of Limits
-- Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
- 30% of Upstream BER
--- Industry Risks
-- 65% of Risks
--- Country Risks
-- 35% of Risks
- Downstream BER
50% of O&G BER
-- Limits of Potential Returns
- 70% of Downstream BER
--- Upstream Market
-- 75% of Limits
--- Country Structure
-- 25% of Limits
-- Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
- 30% of Downstream BER
--- Industry Risks
-- 60% of Risks
--- Country Risks
-- 40% of Risks
Source: BMI
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Indicators
The following indicators have been used. Overall, the rating uses three subjectively measured indicators,
and 41 separate indicators/datasets.
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Indicator
Rationale
Upstream BER: Limits to potential returns
Upstream Market
Resource base
- Proven oil reserves (mn bbl)
Indicators used to denote total market potential. High values are given better scores.
- Proven gas reserves (bcm)
Growth outlook
- Oil production growth (2009-2014)
Indicators used as proxies for BMI’s market assumptions, with strong growth accorded
higher scores.
- Gas production growth (2009-2014)
Market maturity
- Oil reserves/ production
Indicator used to denote whether industries are frontier/emerging/developed or mature
markets. Low existing exploitation in relation to potential is accorded higher scores.
- Gas reserves/ production
- Current oil production vs. peak
- Current gas production vs. peak
Country structure
State ownership of assets, %
Indicator used to denote opportunity for foreign NOCs/IOCs/Independents. Low state
ownership scores higher.
Number of non-state companies
Indicator used to denote market competitiveness. Presence (and large number) of nonstate companies scores higher.
Upstream BER: Risks to potential returns
Industry Risks
Licensing terms
Subjective evaluation of government policy towards sector against BMI-defined criteria.
Protectionist states are marked down.
Privatisation trend
Subjective evaluation of government industry orientation. Protectionist states are
marked down.
Country Risk
Physical Infrastructure
Rating from BMI’s CRR. It evaluates the constraints imposed by power, transport &
communications infrastructure.
Long Term Policy Continuity Risk
Rating from BMI’s CRR It evaluates the risk of a sharp change in the broad direction of
government policy.
Rule of Law
Rating from BMI’s CRR. It evaluates the government’s ability to enforce its will within
the state.
Corruption
Rating from BMI’s CRR, to denote risk of additional illegal costs/possibility of opacity in
tendering/business operations affecting companies’ ability to compete.
Source: BMI
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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Indicator
Rationale
Downstream BER: Limits to potential
returns
Downstream Market
Market
- Refining capacity (000b/d)
Indicator denotes existing domestic oil processing capacity. High capacity is considered
beneficial.
- Oil demand (000b/d)
Indicator denotes size of domestic oil/gas market. High values are accorded better
scores.
- Gas demand (bcm)
- Retail outlets/1,000 people
Indicator denotes fuels retail market penetration; low penetration scores highly.
Growth outlook
- Oil demand growth (2009-2014)
Indicators used as proxies for BMI’s market assumptions, with strong growth accorded
higher scores.
- Gas demand growth (2009-2014)
- Refining capacity growth (2009-2014)
Import dependence
- Refining capacity vs. oil demand, %
(2009-2014)
Indicators denote reliance on imported oil products and natural gas. Greater selfsufficiency is accorded higher scores.
- Gas demand vs. gas supply, % (20092014)
Country structure
State ownership of assets, %
Indicator used to denote opportunity for foreign NOCs/IOCs/Independents. Low state
ownership scores higher.
No. of non-state companies
Indicator used to denote market competitiveness. Presence (and large number) of nonstate companies scores higher.
Population, mn
Data from BMI’s CR team. Indicators used as proxies for overall market size and future
potential.
Nominal GDP, US$bn
GDP per capita, US$
Downstream BER: Risks to potential
returns
Industry Risks
Regulation
Subjective evaluation of government policy towards sector against BMI-defined criteria.
Bureaucratic/intrusive states are marked down.
Privatisation trend
Subjective evaluation of government industry orientation. Protectionist states are
marked down.
Country Risk
Short Term Policy Continuity Risk
Rating from BMI’s CRR. It evaluates the risk of a sharp change in the broad direction of
government policy.
Short Term Economic External Risk
Rating from BMI’s CRR. It evaluates the vulnerability to external economic shock, the
typical trigger of recession in Emerging Markets.
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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Indicator
Rationale
Short Term Economic Growth Risk
Rating from BMI’s CRR. It evaluates the current trajectory of growth and the state’s
position in the economic cycle.
Rule of Law
Rating from BMI’s CRR. It evaluates the government’s ability to enforce its will within
the state.
Legal Framework
Rating from BMI’s CRR, to denote risk of additional illegal costs/possibility of opacity in
tendering/business operations affecting companies’ ability to compete.
Physical Infrastructure
Rating from BMI’s CRR. It evaluates the constraints imposed by power, transport &
communications infrastructure.
Source: BMI
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BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
BMI’s industry forecasts are generated using the best-practice techniques of time-series modelling. The
precise form of time-series model we use varies from industry to industry, in each case being determined,
as per standard practice, by the prevailing features of the industry data being examined. For example, data
for some industries may be particularly prone to seasonality, meaning seasonal trends. In other industries,
there may be pronounced non-linearity, whereby large recessions, for example, may occur more
frequently than cyclical booms.
Our approach varies from industry to industry. Common to our analysis of every industry, however, is the
use of vector autoregressions. Vector autoregressions allow us to forecast a variable using more than the
variable’s own history as explanatory information. For example, when forecasting oil prices, we can
include information about oil consumption, supply and capacity.
When forecasting for some of our industry sub-component variables, however, using a variable’s own
history is often the most desirable method of analysis. Such single-variable analysis is called univariate
modelling. We use the most common and versatile form of univariate models: the autoregressive moving
average model (ARMA).
In some cases, ARMA techniques are inappropriate because there is insufficient historical data or data
quality is poor. In such cases, we use either traditional decomposition methods or smoothing methods as a
basis for analysis and forecasting.
It must be remembered that human intervention plays a necessary and desirable part of all our industry
forecasting techniques. Intimate knowledge of the data and industry ensures we spot structural breaks,
anomalous data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical forecasting process
would not.
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Energy Industry
There are a number of principal criteria that drive our forecasts for each Energy indicator.
Energy supply
Supply of crude oil, natural gas, refined oil products and electrical power is determined largely by
investment levels, available capacity, plant utilisation rates and national policy. We therefore examine:
ƒ
national energy policy, stated output goals and investment levels,
ƒ
company-specific capacity data, output targets and capital expenditures, using national, regional
and multinational company sources,
ƒ
international quotas, guidelines and projections, such as OPEC, IEA, US Energy Information
Administration (EIA),
Energy consumption
A mixture of methods is used to generate demand forecasts, applied as appropriate to each individual
country:
ƒ
underlying economic (GDP) growth for individual countries/regions, sourced from BMI
published estimates. Historical relationships between GDP growth and energy demand growth at
an individual country are analysed and used as the basis for predicting levels of consumption,
ƒ
government projections for oil, gas and electricity demand,
ƒ
third party agency projections for regional demand, such as IEA, EIA, OPEC.
ƒ
extrapolation of capacity expansion forecasts, based on company- or state-specific investment
levels.
Cross checks
Whenever possible, we compare government and/or third party agency projections with the declared
spending and capacity expansion plans of the companies operating in each individual country. Where
there are discrepancies, we use company-specific data as physical spending patterns to ultimately
determine capacity and supply capability. Similarly, we compare capacity expansion plans and demand
projections to check the energy balance of each country. Where the data suggest imports or exports, we
check that necessary capacity exists or that the required investment in infrastructure is taking place.
Sources
Sources include those international bodies mentioned above, such as OPEC, IEA, and EIA, as well as
local energy ministries, official company information, and international and national news agencies.
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