Implementation and Evolution of Liability Driven Investing Strategies Guided by the asset/liability strategy known today as liability driven investing (LDI), many pension plan fiduciaries have become more aware of the nature and extent of pension benefit liabilities, and have taken concrete steps to mitigate the interest rate and other risks of liabilities in their portfolios. Extensive discussions around this strategy have pointed to a distinguishing aspect of today’s LDI programs: there is no single ”one-size-fitsall” approach. Pension plans differ in their funded status, ratio of active to inactive employees, and nature of their benefit formulae. In addition, plans may be closed to new participants and may have frozen the benefits for current participants. Given these variables, fiduciaries adopt LDI approaches appropriate to their particular circumstances. Therefore, two plans of similar asset size may have very different LDI strategies. Typical approaches to LDI involve altering the fixed income portion of the portfolio to improve the match between the interest rate exposure of the assets and the interest rate risk of liabilities. Common examples include adopting a longer-duration, longer-maturity fixed income benchmark for the portfolio’s fixed income investments and/or using derivative instruments to extend the duration of the fixed income allocation. The choice of approach remains a subject of debate among pension fiduciaries, and the issues are becoming well understood. This article focuses on two other important aspects of LDI that are perhaps less understood: the pace and timing of the implementation of an LDI solution, and the ways in which an LDI portfolio’s asset allocation and structure should evolve in future years, both in response to changes in market conditions and in consequence of changes in the nature and structure of the pension liability. Timing of LDI Implementation Many investors believe that “locking in” a pension liability at today’s perceived low interest rates is less than optimal. However, leaving a large un-hedged risk exposure open to market fluctuations is equally sub-optimal. Pension plan fiduciaries considering an LDI strategy recognize that the plan beneficiaries are exposed to substantial risks arising from the interest rate mismatch between plan assets and pension liabilities. In considering timing of the execution of an LDI strategy, fiduciaries should evaluate: (1) risk tolerance, specifically, how large is the current asset/liability duration mismatch and how much risk is appropriate for both the short- and long-term; (2) potential transaction cost savings of phasing in an LDI program vs. a more rapid execution; and, (3) the strength of the fiduciaries’ short-term investment view relative to the risk that is borne during the transition period. In evaluating these factors, we believe most plan fiduciaries will find few compelling arguments for phasing-in an LDI implementation over lengthy periods. Only the largest pension plans might impact market prices by implementing LDI rapidly, which may argue for a more gradual approach by those plans due to potential transaction cost benefits. Active fixed income managers engaged in interest rate anticipation strategies will typically take only 1-2 years of duration risk exposure even on a strongly held view. Pension fiduciaries who carefully examine the size of the asset/liability mismatch in the pension plan – typically many years of duration, the absolute size of the liability, and the consequences of an adverse outcome in interest rates – should quickly conclude that the larger risk is in delaying the inception of an LDI strategy not in implementing too quickly. In short, once plan fiduciaries decide that an existing risk exposure is too large, the objective should be to reduce that risk to acceptable levels as soon as reasonably practicable. Future Portfolio Evolution As mentioned earlier, the funded status of a plan is a significant variable that can determine an appropriate LDI program. In general (recognizing that it is dangerous to generalize), overfunded plans – and particularly plans whose funded status exceeds 110% – tend to adopt LDI strategies that emphasize liability hedging over asset growth. An overfunded plan will often make substantial allocations to fixed income (70-90%), emphasize direct investments in long-maturity bonds, de-emphasize or avoid derivative instruments, and allocate only modestly to equity and other higher-risk returnoriented investments. This is especially true for closed and frozen plans that no longer need high growth targets to cover the annual benefit accruals due to active participant’s service cost of employment. Conversely, underfunded pension plans are more likely to adopt growth-oriented approaches. An underfunded plan pursuing an LDI strategy will more often have smaller allocations to fixed income (30-50%), greater use of derivatives to extend the duration of the fixed income investments, and larger allocations to equity and other higher-risk returnoriented investments. Regardless of the initial asset allocation weights, fiduciaries should be prepared to adapt the LDI approach to the changing evolution of the plan’s funded status. The central case for most pension plans is that growth in plan assets will increase the funded status over time, calling for a shift in target asset allocation weights to fixed income from equity and other higher-risk, return-oriented investments as the plan’s funded status improves. Since equities are often the source of such growth, this involves selling stocks to buy bonds and doing so more aggressively than demanded by a simple rebalancing to a fixed target asset allocation weight, because the target itself is shifting. To a loose approximation, the evolution of a successful LDI strategy over time should be similar to managing the risk of so-called "lifecycle" funds now so popular in defined contribution pension schemes. In particular, a successful LDI strategy should reduce risk over time, similar to the way that a life-cycle fund reduces risk as the defined contribution participant ages. Pension plan fiduciaries adopting an LDI program should realize that they are committing to a dynamic process that may contrast with prior practices. Some pension plan managers have traditionally viewed a funding surplus as an opportunity to take more risk in pursuit of higher returns, an approach that, especially in the absence of a liability hedge, led many plans from liabilitiessets Often overlooked is how the LDI strategy should evolve over time as a result of paying benefits and/or because of successfully meeting the asset growth targets. Planning for such an evolution is particularly important for closed and frozen plans where benefit payments can be larger than the combination of the annual accretion of the liability due to employee service and interest costs. In these cases, and in the absence of adverse market movements, the liability shrinks over time and, under an LDI strategy, the pension surplus grows over time (or, equivalently, the pension deficit shrinks). In such instances, a policy of paying out benefit payments preferentially from the portion of the portfolio holding the equity and other higher-risk, return-oriented investments acts to reduce pension surplus volatility and increase the liability hedge efficacy over time, while simultaneously maintaining or improving the plan’s funded status. We can illustrate with an example using a hypothetical $1 billion pension plan, fully funded today, pursuing an LDI strategy that invests 30% in equity and other higher-risk, return-oriented investments earning a targeted 8.5% annual return and 70% in fixed income assets having a duration equal to that of liabilities and expected to earn 5% annually, which matches the liability discount rate. In effect, the LDI strategy is set up to hedge 70% of the interest rate risk of the pension liability and the assets as a whole are expected to grow at a rate of approximately 1% in excess of the interest cost of the liabilities. Absent distributions, the funded status would be expected to improve from fully-funded (100%) to 105% funded in five years, the fixed income assets would be expected to grow in line with liability accretion, and the LDI strategy would continue to hedge 70% of the liability risk. For convenience, we assume a closed and frozen plan, which is not accruing any meaningful service costs. In the more realistic case where regular distributions to pension beneficiaries are occurring, the hypothetical plan’s future funded status and liability hedge effectiveness will depend upon how those distributions are funded. For illustration, we assume annual distributions of $75 million. If the distributions are funded 70% from the fixed income assets and 30% from the equity and other higher-risk, return-oriented investments, reflecting the initial asset allocation, then the equity/bond split will deteriorate over time from 30/70 initially to 35/65 after five years as a result of the higher expected growth rate in the equity and other higher-risk return-oriented investments. Alternatively, if the distributions are funded 60% from the fixed income assets and 40% from the equity and other higher-risk return-oriented investments, the equity/bond split remains at 30/70, and the liability hedging effectiveness improves from 70% initially to 75% after five years time reflecting the improvement in funded status. Ideally, the distribution policy should reflect a desire to hedge more of the liability risk as the plan’s funded status improves. For example, if distributions are even more preferentially funded from the equity portion, say 50% from fixed income and 50% from equity and other higherrisk return-oriented investments, then the liability hedging effectiveness improves from 70% initially to 80% after five years, the equity/bond asset split moves from 30/70 initially to 25/75 after five years, and the plan’s funded status Exhibit I: Illustrative Example of LDI Strategy 1200 Present Value / Market Value ($ millions) surplus to deficit early in this decade. In an LDI program, a funding surplus should be viewed as a prime opportunity to reduce risk. Liability Present Value Fixed Income Assets Equity & Other Assets 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 These examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not actual results. If any assumptions used do not prove to be true, results may vary substantially. would be expected to improve from fully-funded (100%) to 106% funded after five years. [This example is shown for illustration in Exhibit I.] In summary, liability driven investing has been embraced by the pension community and pension plan fiduciaries are making independent decisions concerning the targeted level of growth in the plan and the degree of risk exposure – generally seeking to maintain an excess growth of plan assets over plan liabilities, while substantially reducing the net interest rate risk from liabilities. Once the decision is made to pursue an LDI strategy, we see little benefit from delaying its implementation, recognizing at the same time that an LDI strategy is a dynamic process and not a static asset allocation. Over time, and as growth targets are realized, an LDI strategy will generally seek increasing risk reduction as the plan becomes more fully funded. Important in this process is the planning of how to meet future benefit payments, with benefits generally paid out preferentially from the equity and other higher-risk, return-oriented investments. For more information, visit gsamldi.gs.com This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. No part of this material may, without GSAM’s prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. This material has been prepared by GSAM and is not a product of the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR) Department. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of the GIR Department or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and GSAM has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. The strategy may include the use of derivatives. Derivatives often involve a high degree of financial risk because a relatively small movement in the price of the underlying security or benchmark may result in a disproportionately large movement in the price of the derivative and are not suitable for all investors. No representation regarding the suitability of these instruments and strategies for a particular investor is made. Copyright © 2008, Goldman, Sachs & Co. All rights reserved. (10506.OTHER)