INTRODUCTION TO YEMEN RURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY NOTES This short note serves as an introduction to four policy notes on Yemen’s rural landscapes and resiliency, rural institutions, the rural investment climate, and rural public expenditures. The policy notes are the output of analytical work undertaken by the World Bank in 2013 and 2014 to support to the Government of Yemen in its efforts to stimulate sustainable economic growth, reduce poverty, and promote shared prosperity in rural areas in the face of significant social and environmental changes1. 1 Scaling up Rural Development in Yemen, an Economic and Sector Work (ESW) study carried out by the World Bank at the request of the Government of Yemen, consisted of analytical work on rural landscapes and resiliency, mapping of rural institutions, rural investment climate assessment, and rural public expenditure review. The development and execution of the ESW was undertaken in close consultation with the Government of Yemen’s team, represented by the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MOPIC), led by H.E. Dr. Mohammed Al-Sadi, Minister, Dr. Abdulla Abdulaziz Abdulmajeed, Deputy Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, and Mr. Khaled Saeed, Director-General of Agriculture and Fisheries. The study team also worked with other stakeholders in Yemen, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MAI), the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE), the Social Fund for Development (SFD), as well as other ministries, agencies, and institutions in Yemen. The World Bank team included: Kwaw Andam (kandam@worldbank.org), Task Team Leader for the ESW; Hanane Ahmed (hahmed2@worldbank.org), primary author for the policy note on rural landscapes and resiliency, working with a team including Erick C.M. Fernandes (efernandes@worldbank.org), Jeffrey Richie from the University of Washington (jrichey@u.washington.edu), and Ahmed Al-Wadaey from the Sana’a University; Bryan Bruns (bryanbruns@bryanbruns.com), primary author for the background paper on rural institutions, as a Rural Development Specialist consultant under the Cooperative Program of the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; Naotaka Sawada (nsawada@worldbank.org), primary author of the policy note on rural investment climate, which benefited from an earlier review by Nabila Assaf; and Guido Rurangwa (grurangwa@worldbank.org) was the primary author of the policy note on rural public expenditure review, working with a team that included Amir Mokhtar Althibah and Mansour Rageh. The ESW policy notes benefited from comments from the study team and other World Bank colleagues. Zakia Chummun and Georgine Badou provided administrative support. In the World Bank office in Sana’a, Naif AbuLohom provided technical guidance, Samra Shaibani provided support with media events, and Fowzia Yahya Musleh Al-Qobi and Nabila Al-Mutawakel helped arrange interviews and other activities. The study also benefited from information and ideas from government officials and others interviewed in Yemen, as well as comments from participants at a technical workshop held in Sana’a, Yemen, on December 5, 2013, and the international conference on “Building Resilience for Food and Nutrition Security” held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from May 14-17 . The peer reviewers for the ESW were Mark Austin, Helen Lackner (Consultant), Stephen D. Mink, Lorraine Ronchi, Ismael Sma (IFAD), and Christopher Ward (Consultant). The ESW was carried out under the overall guidance of Steven N. Schonberger, sector manager for water and agriculture in the World Bank’s Middle East and North Africa Region. Ideas in the policy notes are offered as information and analysis for consideration, and do not represent the official policy or recommendations of the World Bank or any other organization. 1 local and central government, donors, and the World Bank in planning development interventions and policy reforms. A. THE APPROACH This work was motivated by the need to improve coherence in addressing the development of Yemen’s rural landscape by identifying key knowledge gaps; to acknowledge the important linkages between agriculture, water, land, and food security in Yemen and therefore the possibilities for tackling multiple problems with multi-sectoral interventions, as part of the development of the new country strategy for engagement with the World Bank; to apply existing diagnostic tools to test key hypotheses about future directions for Yemen’s development, especially in light of the ongoing political transition in the country; and lastly, to target public financing to meet funding gaps in rural development. Although the Yemen has developed strategies covering areas such as agriculture, water, fisheries, food security, and roads, the last Rural/Local Development Strategy (2003/2004) was developed in 2003, and since then there has been no update of a comprehensive rural strategy per se. Therefore the outputs from this work provide the key elements for an updated comprehensive agenda for scaling up and implementing rural development interventions in Yemen. B. THE CONTEXT Accelerated economic growth in Yemen’s rural areas is critical to reducing poverty and improving food and nutrition security. Yemen, with a population of 25 million, is one of the poorest countries in the world. About 68 percent of the population lives in rural areas where the poverty rate is about 40 percent compared to 20 percent in urban areas. The country ranks 160 out of 187 countries in the 2013 Human Development Index, it is among the ten countries in the world with the highest rates of food insecurity, and it has the third highest level of malnutrition in the world. Yemen is also undergoing a socio-political transition that continues to exert significant effects on its development trajectory. Yemen experienced far-reaching unrest in 2011. During this period of crisis, the economy contracted by 10.5 percent and the number of people living below the poverty line is estimated to have increased from about 42 percent to 50 percent of the Yemeni population. In the aftermath, Yemenis elected a transitional president, and the transitional government launched a National Dialogue Conference (NDC) to define the form of the new Yemen and pave the way for a new constitution and elections. The NDC closed in early 2014 with an agreement to move from a centralized government to a federated state with six regions. However, Yemen continues to experience tensions from social, security, and political crises, caused in part by poor economic performance and lack of progress in human development. In the long-term, the outputs from this work will contribute to the World Bank’s twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty by 2030 and boosting shared prosperity, measured as the income of the bottom 40 percent in any given country. In Yemen, the available data indicate that any efforts to meet these goals will need to focus on the needs of the poor and vulnerable in rural areas and address the rural-urban disparities in poverty and human development. This study contributes to the achievement of the twin goals by providing the analytical support for decision-making to be used by Besides its extractive oil industry, Yemen is particularly reliant on agriculture. Yemen’s diverse agro-ecological zones include 2 highlands, plateaus, deserts, and sea coasts. Agriculture is a key sector in the Yemeni economy, and provides a main source of employment for 54% of the population. Agriculture produced 19.5% of Yemen’s GDP in 2012. C. THE POLICY NOTES The landscape and resiliency analysis policy note anchors the overall study by generating insights about two key aspects of rural Yemen: the natural resource base and the livelihood strategies of vulnerable rural households in rain-fed areas. The study finds two key constraints for rural development: the existing constraints on water are further exacerbated by the expansion of qat and other irrigated crops, and migration of males from rain-fed areas is threatening the existing coping mechanisms (such as terrace construction and maintenance). Rural development faces severe constraints in terms of the natural resource base – land, livestock, water, and fish stocks. Only 3% of Yemen’s land area is considered suitable for cultivation, and with shrinking plot sizes averaging less than 1 ha. About 48 percent of rural households sell livestock and livestock products, and livestock serve as a source of savings for the rural poor. However, the lack of a well-functioning animal health system is a major constraint to livestock production. In terms of water resources, Yemen is one of the most waterscarce countries in the world, with only about 120 cubic meters (m³) of renewable internal freshwater resources available per capita. The country relies primarily on groundwater for its water supply and, as a result, annual groundwater withdrawal has exceeded recharge rates. The rate of groundwater extraction is particularly high in the highlands, which sees annual declines in the water table of 2 to 6 meters. In coastal zones, over-extraction of groundwater has led to salt water intrusion. In 2007, agriculture accounted for over 88 percent of total water withdrawals. Yemen is also particularly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change in Yemen is expected to increase the variability and intensity of rainfall, resulting in increased flood risks and increased aridity. In the fisheries sector, although hard statistics are not available, recent figures on number of boats and catches suggest that although there is a potential for increasing fish exports, there may be over-fishing and decline in fish stocks. Households’ livelihood strategies tend to be constrained by the characteristics of formal and informal institutions and the services provided by those institutions. Therefore, the rural institutions policy note provides further insights on the characteristics of institutional players in rural Yemen. That study confirms that Yemen’s rural institutions offer a strong mechanism for participatory development, community management of natural resources, and decentralized governance. The rural investment climate policy note provides a summary of the constraints and opportunities for promoting farm-based and off-farm business in rural Yemen, to strengthen the private sector in its role of transforming livelihoods, the rural economy, and ultimately the national economy. The rural public expenditure review provides further recommendations for strengthening the rural economy, through improved public spending. Better targeting of public expenditures in rural areas can address some of the challenges to private sector investment that can be addressed by public financing for public goods such as power, infrastructure, and services (such as water supply). 3