Tracking the future: global trends that will affect the
world in the next decade and beyond
Daniel Silke, independent
political analyst, futurist
and keynote speaker
Every hour of every day, 490 babies are born in the USA. In the same hour, a
whopping 2 054 new lives take their first breath in ever-expanding China, while a
staggering 3 087 emerge hourly from the womb in India – a country, unlike
China, where population controls were never implemented. As a result, India is
likely to overtake its Eastern neighbour in population over the next 30 years.
Whatever the nature of domestic politics and business here in South Africa, the
startling population figures represent the key global trend that is likely to drive all
aspects of business, politics and social interaction over the next decade, and for
the rest of our lifetime.
While population growth makes for an increased disparity between East and West, economically
there is a shift away from the developed markets of this world (USA, Europe and Japan) towards the
emerging markets. Indeed, the 21st century is likely to belong not only to the giants of China and
India but also to a host of newly developing markets. Already, PricewaterhouseCoopers is predicting
that over the next decade, the seven largest emerging economies on the planet (China, India, Brazil,
Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) will produce more than the economies of the G8 countries
(USA, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, UK, Italy and Russia).
Indeed, by 2050, China will be the world's largest economy but not the wealthiest. Nevertheless,
these new developing markets are fast becoming the future battlegrounds for marketers. Millions are
moving into the middle classes, and infrastructure such as roads is being enhanced. Tens of millions
are moving out of rural areas to new urban locations. By 2040 there will be 100 new cities in China
alone – with more than 1 billion people in them! And, even assuming a contraction from the run-away
growth rates of the last few years, a Chinese soft-landing of 5% per annum will still be almost double
that of the USA and perhaps three times that of Europe.
Also, as development soars, so does political influence. The Credit Crunch, the on-going Eurozone
crisis and global semi-recession have all been the drivers of one of the most significant trends of our
lifetime – a political shift in power away from the United States (the long-time store of global
leadership after World War 2), towards a new international spread of countries. The G8 – once the
club of countries that ruled the world – has now given way to the G20 and for the first time, China,
India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico and, importantly, South Africa, now have a
stake in dictating and developing economic policy for the planet. As the only African country within the
G20, President Zuma's administration has a particular burden to showcase continental interests and
concerns to a global audience. South Africa's welcome integration into the BRICS group of nations
opens new markets to over 2.5 billion people – but also affords the current ANC administration the
chance to learn from both best and worst practice in these nations.
Consumers are therefore emerging from new regions. A billion new consumers will enter the global
marketplace in the next few years – and have almost $10 trillion to spend! Witness therefore the shift
in retail expansion to Asia and the Middle East – and Africa is not far behind either. Africa is richer
than many of us think. Gross National Income Per Capita is greater than that of India. The Gross
National Income of the 12 richest African countries is greater than that of China. Half of Africa's
population is under 24 and with a future middle class of almost half a billion, Africa will also be a
driving force behind the world economy in decades to come. Also, don't forget an ageing world in
which 'grey' demographics or 'silver' consumers become more prolific. The new consumer mix will
also add more than a billion women to the global workforce over the next decade, as cultural and
religious constraints wane to allow women greater economic freedom and flexibility.
All these developments are fuelled by a rapid technological shift that combines both science and
technology to bring substantial benefits to the planet. While we are all likely to live longer due to
advancements in health-care, we are also more integrated with the world as a result of computer
advances and social media. In the time it has taken you to read this article, your friends could be
twittering all their business experiences (good and bad) to an audience of thousands. Technology has
made us all consumer advocates and once we discover new products (and new ways of doing
business) we are quick to share them with everyone in our network. Social networking will enable
lightning-fast connections and also provide the youth with endless possibilities of global networking
that were once the stuff of science fiction movies.
If this is not enough, the digitisation of manufacturing via advances in 3-D printing technologies will
enable us to customise the manufacturing of products within the comfort of our own home –
potentially turning existing patterns of commercial and labour relations on its head.
Certainly challenges remain to test us. The global recession has seen a statistical recovery in stock
prices and asset values, but the human side of the economic collapse remains. Millions remain
unemployed and there are many people on the planet who have seen little change to their world,
even with innovation and progress. These future trends are just a few of the dramatic issues that will
impact every aspect of our work and play. Being aware of their implications for personal and
commercial activity is critical in these challenging times.
Daniel Silke is an independent political analyst, futurist & keynote speaker. www.danielsilke.com.
Glacier Financial Solutions (Pty) Ltd, A member of the Sanlam Group
Reg No 1999/025360/07 Licensed Financial Services Provider
Refer to the Glacier website for details of directors