Results Review, 13 August 2013
Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)
Neutral (Maintained)
Utilities - Electric
Market Cap: USD2,276m
Target Price:
Price:
THB142
THB135
Macro
2QFY13 Earnings Plunge 73%
Risks
Growth
Value
Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)
Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
170
121
160
116
150
111
140
106
130
101
120
96
110
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
91
0
0
.
2
0
0
Egco’s 2QFY13 earnings plunged 73% y-o-y to THB1.8bn (24% y-o-y) .
0
after stripping out 2QFY12’s extraordinary gains. Earnings from BLCP 0
were stable, while contributions from Quezon Power rose (+36%) after 0
Egco increased its stake in the plant. It still has major catalysts: Quezon
Power’s expansion and the Khanom power plant (negotiations still
ongoing). Maintain NEUTRAL with a THB142 TP.

Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12

Aug-12
Vol m
Price Close
Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (THB/USD)
Cons. Upside (%)
Upside (%)
52-wk Price low/high (THB)
Free float (%)
110m/3.58m
7.4
5.4
116 - 166
44
Shareholders (%)
EGAT
TEPDIA Generating BV
Thai NVDR
25.4
23.9
10.3
Shariah compliant


2

.
2
0
.
2





2QFY13 earnings plunged 73% y-o-y to THB1.8bn. This accounted for
63% of our FY13 forecast. After stripping out accounting gains of
THB4.3bn in 2QFY12, Egco’s earnings for the quarter would have fallen
by just 24% y-o-y. 2QFY13 sales surged 92% y-o-y to THB4.6bn, while
operating profit skyrocketed 340% y-o-y to THB1.2bn. The company’s yo-y net interest expense increased 187% to THB1.1bn, as it also included
a net forex loss of THB712m as well as THB38m in other finance costs.
Meanwhile, earnings from its associates declined 16% y-o-y to THB1.9bn
in 2QFY13, while tax expenses surged 227% y-o-y to THB287m.
Pre-forex earnings for its major power plants increased 4% y-o-y to
THB2bn. While BLCP power plant’s earnings were stable at THB534m,
net profit for Egco’s Quezon Power in the Philippines rose 36% y-o-y to
THB519m, as it boosted its stake from 45.87% to 98%. Meanwhile, Gulf
Power Generation’s earnings dropped 12% y-o-y to THB529m due to
lower electricity sales, while Nam Theun Power Company’s earnings fell
20% y-o-y, on the back of lower water levels. On a more positive note,
both Egco Cogeneration Ltd’s and Nong Khae Cogeneration Company’s
operations have normalised after suffering from disruptions last year.
Major catalyst. Egco aims to expand capacity at its Quezon Power plant
(the result of a 50:50 venture with the Manila Electric Company, which is
the sole off-taker) by another 500MW. The plant is expected to begin
commercial operations in 2017. Meanwhile, the 900MW Khanom project
is still under negotiations with the Electricity Generating Authority of
Thailand (Egat) as its sole off-taker. We expect the talks to be concluded
by year-end.
Forecasts and Valuations
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Total turnover (THBm)
7,661
14,057
18,865
18,875
15,565
Reported net profit (THBm)
4,990
10,979
6,421
6,504
4,418
Recurring net profit (THBm)
4,990
6,953
6,421
6,504
4,418
Recurring net profit growth (%)
(26.7)
39.4
(7.7)
1.3
(32.1)
9.5
13.2
12.2
12.4
8.4
5.25
6.00
5.25
5.25
5.25
Core EPS (THB)
DPS (THB)
Kannika Siamwalla, CFA 66 2862 9744
License No.23517
Dividend Yield (%)
kannika.si@th.oskgroup.com
Return on average equity (%)
Core P/E (x)
P/B (x)
P/CF (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Net debt to equity (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (%)
3.9
4.4
3.9
3.9
3.9
14.2
10.2
11.1
10.9
16.1
8.8
17.5
9.3
8.9
5.8
1.23
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.93
115
57
17
16
28
10.3
12.7
8.6
8.1
13.6
2.3
45.2
36.0
31.4
25.1
(8.3)
(1.9)
(33.4)
Source: Company data, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM Platform
Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)
13 August 2013
Figure 1: 2Q13 earnings breakdown
FYE Dec. (THB m)
2Q13
2Q12
y-o-y
chg
YTD
2013
YTD
2012
y-oy
chg
Revenue
EBIT
Net interest expense
Associates
PBT
Tax
MI
Net profit
EPS (THB)
EBITDA margin (%)
4,610
1,245
(1,107)
1,987
117
(287)
18
1,835
3.49
40
2,404
283
(385)
2,365
115
(88)
6
6,710
12.74
27
92%
340%
187%
-16%
1%
227%
185%
-73%
-73%
48%
9,235
2,467
(956)
3,161
1,476
(582)
(11)
4,044
7.68
41
4,308
521
(412)
3,650
321
(109)
(14)
8,158
15.49
29
114%
374%
132%
-13%
360%
432%
-17%
-50%
-50%
43%
Source: RHB estimates
Figure 2: Major operating variables
Net profit before
forex (THB m)
%
y-o-y
2Q13
2Q12
KEGCO
-28
-39
(28)
Quezon
519
382
36
EGCO Cogen
GEC (GCC, NKCC,
SCC, GYG)
28
-50
N/A
78
36
117
GPG
529
604
(12)
BLCP
534
532
-
NTPC
245
307
(20)
Lower electricity sales
Lower electricity sales according to PPA,
with lower overall expenses.
Electricity sales was lower due to lower
water levels
Rayong
33
117
(72)
Increase in deferred tax
Conal
17
17
-
Other joint ventures
98
59
66
2053
1965
4
Net profit before forex
Comment
Availability payment (AP) and total
expenses increased
Increased stake in Quezon as of June
2012
Higher electricity sales this year from this
plant, as there was plant interruption in FebOct 2012
Higher electricity sales from NKCC, as the
plant was damaged in April-Sept 2012
Stable earnings
Source: RHB estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
2
Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)
13 August 2013
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (THBm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Total turnover
7,661
14,057
18,865
18,875
15,565
Cost of sales
(5,589)
(9,673)
(12,796)
(12,796)
(12,597)
Gross profit
Gen & admin expenses
Operating profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation of fixed assets
Operating EBIT
Dec-15F
2,072
4,384
6,069
6,079
2,967
(1,678)
(2,362)
(1,878)
(1,878)
(1,878)
1,089
394
2,022
4,190
4,200
2,367
4,833
6,961
6,971
3,859
(1,973)
(2,811)
(2,770)
(2,770)
(2,770)
394
2,022
4,190
4,200
1,089
5,200
5,578
4,136
4,156
4,156
Other recurring income
449
415
449
449
449
Interest income
-
-
90
104
Net income from investments
Interest expense
Exchange gains
Other non-recurring income
Pre-tax profit
(694)
22
154
(703)
(1,369)
(1,303)
(1,222)
-
205
-
-
-
4,310
-
-
-
5,371
11,826
7,497
7,607
4,626
Taxation
(255)
(779)
(1,008)
(1,035)
Minority interests
(126)
(68)
(68)
(68)
(141)
(68)
Profit after tax & minorities
4,990
10,979
6,421
6,504
4,418
Reported net profit
4,990
10,979
6,421
6,504
4,418
Recurring net profit
4,990
6,953
6,421
6,504
4,418
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
394
2,022
4,190
4,200
1,089
1,973
2,811
2,770
2,770
2,770
Source: Company data, RHB Estimates
Cash flow (THBm)
Operating profit
Depreciation & amortisation
Change in working capital
Operating cash flow
Interest received
(799)
1,568
-
Interest paid
(694)
Tax paid
(255)
Cash flow from operations
Capex
Other investing cash flow
Cash flow from investing activities
Dividends paid
Proceeds from issue of shares
Increase in debt
(2,114)
2,719
-
(499)
6,462
90
6,557
104
(703)
(1,369)
(1,303)
(779)
(1,008)
(1,035)
4,175
4,323
619
1,236
339
(41,679)
(233)
15,441
106
(26,238)
3,212
(3,159)
(2,764)
(2,764)
(414)
(352)
3,564
(1)
315
314
(2,764)
(132)
3,727
154
(1,222)
(141)
2,518
4,224
4,224
(2,764)
933
1,635
-
-
-
2,497
23,832
(5,474)
(1,463)
(1,788)
Other financing cash flow
219
279
Cash flow from financing activities
884
22,587
(7,924)
(3,913)
(4,239)
4,148
3,611
4,334
723
2,504
Cash at beginning of period
7,748
8,402
Total cash generated
1,609
(2,414)
Forex effects
Implied cash at end of period
(22)
9,335
(205)
5,782
313
(537)
313
313
-
-
-
3,611
4,334
6,838
Source: Company data, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
3
Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)
13 August 2013
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Total cash and equivalents
10,685
5,026
4,489
5,212
7,716
6,884
10,015
10,015
10,015
10,015
Accounts receivable
Dec-15F
Other current assets
2,550
4,805
5,304
5,304
5,191
Total current assets
20,119
19,846
19,808
20,532
22,923
Total investments
39,685
39,232
37,709
41,619
41,619
Tangible fixed assets
13,023
49,912
49,017
46,246
43,476
129
334
974
975
975
Total non-current assets
52,837
89,478
87,699
88,840
86,069
Total assets
108,992
Total other assets
72,956
109,324
107,508
109,372
Short-term debt
536
11,724
1,251
4,788
-
Accounts payable
327
1,237
1,237
1,237
1,237
1,152
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Total long-term debt
Other liabilities
853
1,811
1,811
1,397
1,716
14,772
4,298
7,422
2,389
11,521
24,165
29,165
24,165
27,165
1,186
2,067
2,067
2,067
2,067
Total non-current liabilities
12,707
26,232
31,232
26,232
29,232
Total liabilities
14,423
41,004
35,530
33,654
31,621
5,265
5,265
5,265
5,265
5,265
44,065
53,520
57,177
60,917
62,571
Share capital
Retained earnings reserve
Other reserves
8,649
8,649
8,649
8,649
8,649
57,978
67,433
71,090
74,831
76,484
555
887
887
887
887
0
0
0
0
0
Total equity
58,533
68,320
71,977
75,717
77,371
Total liabilities & equity
72,956
109,324
107,508
109,372
108,992
Shareholders' equity
Minority interests
Other equity
Source: Company data, RHB Estimates
Key Ratios (THB)
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13F
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Revenue growth (%)
(11.0)
83.5
34.2
0.1
(17.5)
Operating profit growth (%)
(73.7)
413.3
107.2
0.2
(74.1)
Net profit growth (%)
(26.7)
120.0
(41.5)
1.3
(32.1)
EPS growth (%)
(26.7)
120.0
(41.5)
1.3
(32.1)
Bv per share growth (%)
5.8
16.3
5.4
5.3
2.2
Operating margin (%)
5.1
14.4
22.2
22.3
7.0
Net profit margin (%)
65.1
78.1
34.0
34.5
28.4
Return on average assets (%)
7.1
12.0
5.9
6.0
4.0
Return on average equity (%)
8.8
17.5
9.3
8.9
5.8
Net debt to equity (%)
2.3
45.2
36.0
31.4
25.1
DPS
5.25
6.00
5.25
5.25
5.25
Recurrent cash flow per share
1.18
2.35
7.93
8.21
4.78
Source: Company data, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
4
Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)
13 August 2013
SWOT Analysis
 Has domestic expertise as well as strong connections
within the utilities industry via its major shareholder,
Egat
 The domestic
utilities industry
operates in an
open market,
which allows for
new players to
enter the fray
 Despite Egat’s 25% stake, Egco is allowed to operate
with the flexibility of an independent company
 Actively seeking
investment
opportunities in
the domestic
and regional
markets
 The power
sector is
enjoying steady
growth in
demand, which
will lead to more
solicitations for
IPPs in the
future
 A conservatively-run company
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/BV (x) vs ROAE
14%
51%
0.80
11%
29%
0.60
6
7%
9%
4
-16%
0.40
6%
2
-38%
0.20
3%
0
-60%
0.00
0%
P/B (x) (lhs)
Jan-15
1.00
Jan-14
8
Source: Company data, RHB Estimates
17%
Jan-13
10
EPS growth (rhs)
20%
1.20
Jan-12
73%
P/E (x) (lhs)
1.40
Jan-11
12
Jan-15
96%
Jan-14
14
Jan-13
118%
Jan-12
140%
16
Jan-11
18
Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB Estimates
Company Profile
Electricity Generating (Egco) was one of the first independent power producers to list on the SET, with Rayong Electricity Generating
Company Ltd and Khanom Electricity Generating Company Ltd as its main assets. The company currently has total of 5,275MW in
effective capacity.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
5
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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ADVANC
AOT
ASIMAR
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CPN
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PHATRA***
PJW
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SCSMG
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TK
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TRU
TRUE
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TTW
TUF
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*** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
AEONTS
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*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
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เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้ นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการสารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด