RAPID COMMUNITY-BASED
ADAPTATION
FOR DAGUPAN CITY
Progress Report
2011 Southeast Asia Regional Workshop on
Global Environmental Change and Health:
Water-Related Impacts and Adaptations
Ebinezer R. Florano, PhD
Philippines
OUTLINE
I.
II.
III.
IV.
Vulnerability Assessment Steps
Brief Profile of Dagupan City
Types and Magnitudes of CC-Related Hazards
Vulnerability Assessment through Map
Layovers
V. Climate Change Adaptation Workshops
VI. What’s Next? Health Sector Vulnerability
Assessment
GENERAL STEPS FOR VA AND CBA
Step 1: Hazard Identification
Step 2: Hazard Analysis
Step 3: Critical Facilities Analysis (including hospitals)
Step 4: Societal Analysis (vulnerable population like elderly, ethnic people, etc.)
Step 5: Economic Analysis
Step 6: Environmental Analysis
Step 7: Adaptation Opportunities Analysis
•
Adopted from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Coastal Services
Center’s “VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT TUTORIAL.” Available at
http://www.csc.noaa.gov/products/nchaz/htm/methov.htm
BRIEF PROFILE OF THE CITY
Figure1: Land Use
1%
7%
Agriculture
3% 2% 1%
Residential
36%
12%
Water Bodies
Roads
Open Spaces
15%
23%
Commercial
Parks and Playground
Institutional
Industrial
POPULATION
•161,905 (national Statistics Office 2000 survey)
•5.35% of the total population of Pangasinan Province
•1.9% average growth rate, slightly higher than that of the province
(1.81%)
•High Population Density: 36 persons/hectare
•Pangasinan Province Population Density: 6 persons/hectare
The Philippines and Climate Change
From 1951
to 2006,
records
show that
warming
has
occurred in
the country
Source: PAG-ASA
Dagupan City Mean Temperature Data (in
Degree Celsius): 1981-2010
29.5
29.02
29
28.7 28.67
28.68
28.5
28
28.06
27.85
27.5
28.12
27.97
27.55
28.78
28.62
28.51
28.45
28.61
28.52
28.35
28.29
28.15
27.95
27.85
27.91
27.78
28.02
28.03
27.95
27.78
27.57
27.24
27.38
27.31
27
26.5
26
Source: PAG-ASA, obtained from
Dagupan City
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO FOR
PANGASINAN(2020 & 2050)
Source: PAG-ASA
Method: PRECIS (Providing Regional
Climates for Impact Studies)
of Hadley Center Model
A1B PROJECTED CHANGE IN SEASONAL MEAN
TEMPERATURE (°C) and RAINFALL (%): 2020
Area
Pangasinan
RAINFALL (%)
2020 (2006-2035)
TEMPERATURE (°C)
2020 (2006-2035)
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
0.9
2.2
1.1
2.2
29.1
-5.2
16.8
-4.96
Source: PAG-ASA
A1B PROJECTED CHANGE IN SEASONAL MEAN
TEMPERATURE (°C) and RAINFALL (%): 2050
Area
Pangasinan
RAINFALL (%)
2050 (2036-2050)
TEMPERATURE (°C)
2050 (2036-2050)
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
0.9
1.8
1.0
2.0
5.7
-26.5
35.8
6.6
Source: PAG-ASA
SEA-LEVEL RISE
Province of Pangasinan
CLIMATE-CHANGE RELATED
HAZARDS AFFECTING THE CITY
DAGUPAN CITY: HAVEN FOR WATERBORNE DISEASES?
Dagupan, a coastal city traversed by seven river
systems serve as a catch basin of waters coming
from the highlands which exits through the
Pantal-Sinocalan River. Because of its unique
topography, the city was frequently devastated by
the unprecedented citywide flooding due to
typhoons, receiving record amount of water from
huge volume of rainfall and dam releases from
upstream, further compounded by cyclic tidal rise
of the sea.
EARTHQUAKE
JULY 16, 1990- DAGUPAN CITY
INTENSITY: 7.1 in the Richter scale.
EARTHQUAKE MAP OF DAGUPAN CITY
Source: PHIVOLCS, supplied by Dagupan City
1990 Earthquake
Damages
1990 EARTHQUAKE:
Damages to Properties and Infrastructures
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
75 %, out of 120 commercial buildings were declared useless after the episode.
39%, out of 77 school buildings were destroyed. In addition to 127 Other Buildings, 6
hospitals and other social buildings were damaged and temporarily rendered not fit
for occupancy.
7,448 houses were either totally or partially damaged.
About 4 kilometers of the main thoroughfare of the city was heavily damaged.
Magsaysay Bridge in Perez Blvd. collapsed while Electric and telegraph Poles tilted
and the electric power network was disrupted.
The water supply system likewise sustained heavy damages since 6 out of 17
pumping stations were not serviceable and 12.5 km. of 150 & 100 mm water
transmission line were damaged. Potable water supply was a problem for so many
weeks and epidemics due to sanitation problems became an impending threat.
Gasoline storage as well as septic tanks behaved buoyantly and exerted pressure
which resulted in ground upheaval and breaking of pavements. Consequently the
operation of most gasoline stations was disrupted for sometime.
The sewage system made of concrete pipes was filled with sand and experienced
large deformation requiring replacement in the major sewage lines in Angel B.
Fernandez Avenue.
FLOODING
Flooding aggravated by prolonged rains and high tides
DAGUPAN CITY
FLOODING IN DAGUPAN CITY
•
A perennial and naturally-occurring situation that flashes the rivers and
raising the coastal waters are floods that the City experiences. Due to the
location of the city as the exit of all waters that drain into Lingayen Gulf
from the uplands in the central part of Pangasinan, rivers system waters
rise above normal during the rainy season.
•
The city river system is part of the Agno River basin’s tail end from
Mt. Ampucao, the highest peak. During this time, when the river banks
cannot hold the volume of the waters within its capacity, the excess
waters would find its way among the low lying areas of the city – the roads,
the school grounds, other public places and worst, the residential areas
•
Dagupan City, described to be not more that 2-3 meters above sea
level finds itself in FLOODING situations due to prolonged rain and the
simultaneous occurrence of a high tide more than a meter high.
HISTORY OF FLOODING IN DAGUPAN
YEAR
DISASTER
EFFECTS
1935
The Biggest
Flood in
Pangasinan
Entire Dagupan was flooded; Colegio de San Alberto
Magno and at Calmay were destroyed and sank at
Calmay River.
1972
Flood
Agricultural crops, fishponds and other properties
were damaged.
2009
Floods
Majority of the areas in Dagupan City were flooded.
TYPHOON / STORM SURGE
When the cyclone strikes land, high winds,
and exceptional rainfall and storm surges
may be aggravated by flooding.
Timeline of Typhoon-Related
Disasters in Dagupan
YEAR
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
DISASTER
EFFECTS
2.8 Million damages in Infrastructures.
36.01 Million damages in Agriculture.
3.3 Million damages in Infrastructures.
42.11 Million as total damages
Monsoon Rain 7.5 Million damages to Infrastructures.
24.4 Million damages on Agriculture.
Typhoon
Ditang/Eding
Typhoon Feria 8.5 Million damages on Infrastructures
17.215 Million damages on Agriculture.
25.715 Million Total Damages
Typhoon
Gading and
Iliang
Typhoon
Gloria
Typhoon
Chedeng
2004
Typhoon
Marcy
2008
Typhoon COSME
16.32 Millions damages in Agriculture
10.7 Million damages on Infrastructures
30.57 Million damages on Agriculture.
40.94 Million as Total Damages
21 Barangays in the city were flooded.
17,139 households affected
87,409 population affected
5,505 Business establishments affected
Typhoon Pepeng – Oct.8-12, 2009
BARANGAY
BACAYAO NORTE
NO.OF FAMILIES
398
NO. OF INDIVIDUALS
1,711
BACAYO SUR
413
2,065
BARANGAY I
333
1,531
BARANGAY II & III
626
2,554
BARANGAY IV
358
1,718
BOLOSAN
942
4,911
BONUAN BINLOC
1,475
6,725
BONUAN BOQUIG
2,550
12,934
BONUAN GUESET
3,102
17,674
CALMAY
1,124
4,955
CARAEL
993
4,181
CARANGLAAN
1,627
6,849
HERRERO-PEREZ
1,719
8,923
LASIP
410
1,754
LASIP GRANDE
613
3,095
LOMBOY
183
841
LUCAO
1,984
8,531
MALUED
2,204
11,526
286
1,229
MAMALINGLING
MANGUIN
729
3,003
MAYOMBO
1,356
6,956
PANTAL
3,029
15,681
941
4,462
POBLACION OESTE
POGO
1,037
4,262
POGO GRANDE
518
2,169
PUGARO
640
3,328
SALAPINGAO
551
2,347
SALISAY
369
1,723
TAMBAC
369
1,811
TAPUAC
901
3,784
TEBENG
392
1,838
TOTAL
32,172
155,071
Typhoon Pepeng
Typhoon-related fatalities
Fatality - (3) male persons (drowning incident)
Missing - (1) male person
DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURES (initial
estimate)
PhP 200M cost
(roads, houses, government buildings and other
facilities)
•
•
•
•
INFRASTRUCTURE AFFECTED BY TYPHOON PEPENG
ESTIMATED AMOUNT
BARANGAY
BACAYAO NORTE
BACAYAO SUR
BARANGAY I
BARANGAY II & III
BARANGAY IV
BOLOSAN
BONUAN BINLOC
BONUAN BOQUIG
BONUAN GUESET
CALMAY
CARAEL
CARANGLAAN
HERRERO-PEREZ
LASIP CHICO
LASIP GRANDE
LOMBOY
LUCAO
MALUED
MAMALINGLING
MANGIN
MAYOMBO
PANTAL
POBLACION OESTE
POGO CHICO
POGO GRANDE
PUGARO-SUIT
SALAPINGAO
SALISAY
TAMBAC
TAPUAC
TEBENG
TOTAL
HIGHEST FLOOD WATER LEVEL
OF DAMAGED
3,300,000.00
1.40m at Main Road
2,060,000.00
2.50m at Sitio Tokoc & Patalan
5,600,000.00
1.20m at Main Road
6,250,000.00
1.20m at Main Road
1,250,000.00
0.60 at Main Road
2,460,000.00
1.50m at Riverside & 0.90m at Main Road
36,150,000.00
0.80m at Main Road
3,450,000.00
0.80m at Main Road
6,300,000.00
0.60m at Main Road
3,600,000.00
1.50m Sitio Centro, 1.60m Sitio Ilokano, 1.20m Sitio Sagur
2,200,000.00
1.0m at Sitio Sagur
3,650,000.00
1.40m at Sitio Caniogan
5,050,000.00
1.20m at Main Road
2,200,000.00
1.1m Lower Part & 0.70m Main Road
2,570,000.00
1.80m at Main Road
850,000.00
0.45m at Sitio Sagur
7,000,000.00
1.20m at Main Road
2,410,000.00
1.1m Lower Part & 0.70m Main Road
2,580,000.00
1.8m Riverside & 0.8m Main Road
2,450,000.00
2.90m Riverside & 2.20m Main Road
7,850,000.00
1.20m at Main Road
15,750,000.00
1.0m at Main Road
2,300,000.00
0.80m at Main Road
2,050,000.00
1.4m Lower Part & 0.90 Main Road
4,040,000.00
1.40m at Main Road
600,000.00
0.74m at Sitio Suit
850,000.00
0.72m at Sitio Dupo
1,730,000.00
1.8m Riverside & 1.50m Main Road
2,630,000.00
1.6m Riverside & 1.20m Main Road
2,100,000.00
1.1m Lower Part & 0.70m Main Road
2,850,000.00
2.50m at Sitio Abalaten, Patalan,Centro & Baybay
P 144,130,000.00
Damage to Agriculture/Fisheries
Brachish water
Fish Pen/ Cages
-marketable
-post fingerlings
-structures
TOTAL
Stationary Fishing Gear/
Oyster Beds
Crop Lands
TOTAL
Areas Affected
920.0 Has
720 unit
Loses (Peso Value)
PhP 255,000,000.00
PhP 91,200,000.00
30,240,000.00
86,400,000.00
__________________
207,840,000.00
600 units
PhP
8,650,000.00
PhP
2M
PhP
471,490,000.00
DAMAGE TO MOBILE EQUIPMENTS
• 80% of the city’s heavy trucks & equipments
were damaged due to rescue operations
during the flooding fast high rising of water
attributed to spill water from the San Roque
Dam.
HIGH TIDE & STORM
SURGE EPISODES
Strong winds brought about by “Typhoon Mina”
which triggered big waves and the rising tide level.
Those factors complicated the situation along the
coastal areas and the area of fishpens immediately
located at the river mouth (Bonuan Gueset
(Sabangan area)
“Typhoon Mina” on Nov. 27, 2007
High Tide Episodes
Storm Surge + High Tide
•
Strong currents of water caused by big waves from the sea and the rising
tide entered the river mouth and clashed with the Dawel River water
which was the exit of the Eastern Barangay river water tributaries.
•
Fishpens located near the area where Dawel and Pantal river intersection
were worst hit (24) units 97 % of stocks (622,000 pcs = 187,215 kgs).
•
Estimated value of damage (partial)
•
Fishpens:
•
TOTAL
Stocks (marketable) –
Partial Damage (nets/bamboo)
P 13,057,665.00
75,000.00
P 13,801,665.00
AT RISK PER BARANGAY WHEN FLOODING OCCURS
VULNERABILITY LEVEL
LOCATION
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
1. Bacayao Norte
353
-
-
2. Bacayao Sur
352
-
-
3. Barangay I
-
-
139
4. Barangay II & III
-
-
573
5. Barangay IV
-
-
275
6. Bolosan
-
681
-
7. Bonuan Binloc
-
1336
-
8. Bonuan Boquig
-
2257
-
9. Bonuan Gueset
3291
-
10. Calmay
1055
11. Carael
1096
12. Caranglaan
1520
13. Herrero-Perez
549
14. Lasip Grande
297
15. Lasip Chico
211
16. Lomboy
260
17. Lucao
1666
18. Malued
1847
19. Mamalingling
20. Mangin
237
648
21. Mayombo
1366
22. Pantal
3324
23. Poblacion Oeste
809
24. Pogo Chico
1075
25. Pogo Grande
448
26. Pugaro Suit
778
27. Salapingao
28. Salisay
526
380
29. Tambac
423
30. Tapuac
1030
31. Tebeng
476
TOTAL
3165
21,411
4702
Vulnerable Population
VULNERABILITY LEVEL
PARTICULARS
Citiwide
Citiwide
INDICATORS
Number of
persons*
Children (0-17
y/o)*
Children w/
disabilities (0-17
y/o)**
512
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
15,852
107,594
23,577
6,991
44,661
9,883
1060
6771
1497
Person w/ disabilities
(18 & above)** 318
Women w/ disabilities
(18-59 y/o)**
164
Citiwide
Solo Parent/
Surrogate Parents**
413
Senior Citizens
(60 y/o & over)**
Number of Business Establishments
LOCATION
1. Bacayao Norte
2. Bacayao Sur
3. Barangay I
4. Barangay II & III
5. Barangay IV
6. Bolosan
7. Bonuan Binloc
8. Bonuan Boquig
9. Bonuan Gueset
10. Calmay
11. Carael
12. Caranglaan
13. Herrero-Perez
14. Lasip Grande
15. Lasip Chico
16. Lomboy
17. Lucao
18. Malued
19. Mamalingling
20. Mangin
21. Mayombo
22. Pantal
23. Poblacion Oeste
24. Pogo Chico
25. Pogo Grande
26. Pugaro Suit
27. Salapingao
28. Salisay
29. Tambac
30. Tapuac
31. Tebeng
No. affected
HIGH
19
29
VULNERABILITY LEVEL
MEDIUM
LOW
753
545
335
81
56
107
456
5
33
241
398
25
2
1
278
146
1
26
305
572
52
61
26
19
23
35
299
19
TOTAL
Area of Fishpondsª (Hectares)
LOCATION
1. Bacayao Norte
2. Bacayao Sur
Area affected (has.)
VULNERABILITY LEVEL
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
11.54
2.14
3. Bolosan
43.50
4. Bonuan Binloc
71.00
5. Bonuan Boquig
112.00
6. Bonuan Gueset
64.10
7. Calmay
65.50
8. Carael
94.00
9. Caranglaan
10. Lasip Grande
11. Lomboy
12. Lucao
16.00
3.83
63.55
35.50
13. Mamalingling
14. Mangin
122.72
14.25
15. Mayombo
14.00
16. Pantal
47.00
17. Pugaro
23.20
18. Salapingao
26.50
19. Salisay
20.00
20. Tambac
29.00
21. Tapuac
31.50
22. Tebeng
TOTAL
23.00
74.76
586.32
272.75
Number of Fishpensª
VULNERABILITY LEVELS
LOCATION
ZONE I
Bonuan Gueset
Pugaro
Salapingao
Calmay
Sub-Total
ZONE II
Salapingao
Pugaro Suit
Lomboy
Sub-Total
ZONE III
Lomboy
Salapingao
Pugaro
Sub-Total
ZONE IV
Bonuan Gueset
Pantal
Tambac
Bonuan Boquig
Mamalingling
Sub-Total
ZONE V
Pantal
Calmay
Salapingao
Bonuan Gueset
Lomboy
Sub-Total
ZONE VI
Calmay
Poblacion Oeste
Tapuac
Pugaro
Sub-Total
ZONE VII
Lucao
Carael
Calmay
Sub-Total
units
HIGH
21
40
1
62
58
61
1
120
66
33
2
101
103
4
0
0
1
108
54
12
7
2
1
76
84
33
25
1
143
100
5
1
106
MEDIUM
LOW
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS
Floods
Sea-Level Rise
Earthquake and Liquefaction
Source: DENR-EMB, 2010
BARANGAY
Bacayao Norte
Bacayao Sur
Brgy. I
Brgy II and III
Brgy IV
Bolosan
Bonuan Binloc
Bonuan Boquig
Bonuan Gueset
Calmay
Carael
Caranglaan
Herrero-Perez
Lasip Chico
Lasip Grande
Lomboy
Lucao
Malued
Mamalingling
Manguin
Mayombo
Pantal
Poblacio Oeste
Pogo Chico
Pogo Grande
Pugaro Suit
Salapingao
Salisay
Tambac
Tapuac
POPULATION
TOTAL
2,189
2,023
745
2,171
991
3,206
7,551
10,915
20,453
5,417
4,393
7,894
2,254
778
2,721
1,312
8,020
9,855
1,287
3,632
6,604
16,933
4,256
4,880
2,256
4,087
2,480
2,204
2,076
4,190
NO. OF
HOUSEHOLD
361
360
141
587
281
697
1,367
2,310
3,329
1,080
1,121
1,555
562
216
304
266
1,705
1,890
243
663
1,398
3,401
828
1,100
458
796
539
389
433
1,054
POPULATION
DENSITY
(PERSON/HA.)
29
55
67
115
67
23
26
20
42
25
13
0
47
27
62
17
41
66
6
29
81
52
60
123
57
25
26
18
14
35
CRITICAL TO 3 TO 4
FT, FLOODING
CRITICAL AREAS TO
STORM SURGES
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
BARANGAYS AFFECTED
Critical Areas during floods with depths of 3’ to 4’ with corresponding population density
Barangay Name
Population Density
Bonoan Binloc
25.85
Bonoan Buquig
19.86
Mamalingling
5.95
Lasip Chico
27.28
Malved
66.19
Bacayao Sur
54.54
Pogo Grande
56.94
Caranglaan
107.92
Bolosan
22.83
Salisay
17.52
Mangin
28.64
Mayombo
88.77
Tambac
13.90
Herrero Perez
47.21
Pogo Chico
123.17
Tebeng 25.69
25.69
Lasig
61.9
CRITICAL FACILITIES AFFECTED
BARANGAY
GOVERNMENT
BUILDINGS
HOSPITALS
SCHOOLS
Bacayao Sur
X
Bolosan
X
Bonuan Binloc
X
COMMERCIAL
BUILDINGS/
F ACTORIES
X
Bonuan Boquig
Bonuan Gueset
X
X
Caranglaan
X
X
X
Herrero-Perez
X
X
X
Lasip Chico
X
Lasip Grande
X
Malued
X
X
Mamalingling
X
Manguin
X
Mayombo
X
X
X
Pantal
X
X
X
Poblacio Oeste
X
X
X
Pogo Chico
X
X
Pogo Grande
X
Salisay
X
Tambac
Tebeng
X
X
X
ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES AFFECTED
BARANGAY
Bacayao Sur
AGRICULTURE
FISHPONDS
COMMERCIAL
ESTABLISHMENTS
X
FACTORIES
X
Bolosan
Bonuan Binloc
X
X
Bonuan Boquig
X
X
Bonuan Gueset
Caranglaan
X
X
X
Herrero-Perez
X
Lasip Chico
Lasip Grande
X
Malued
Mamalingling
X
Manguin
X
Mayombo
X
Pantal
X
Poblacio Oeste
Pogo Chico
Pogo Grande
Salisay
X
X
Tambac
X
Tebeng
X
ENVIRONMENTAL AREAS AFFECTED
BARANGAY
Bacayao Sur
Bolosan
Bonuan Binloc
Bonuan Boquig
Bonuan Gueset
Caranglaan
Herrero-Perez
Lasip Chico
Lasip Grande
Malued
Mamalingling
Manguin
Mayombo
Pantal
Poblacio Oeste
Pogo Chico
Pogo Grande
Salisay
Tambac
CRITICAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
Marine
X
Croplands
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Etc.
SEA-LEVEL RISE
1 meter
6 meters
RESULTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION WORKSHOPS
Flooding
Sea-Level Rise
Earthquake and Liquefaction
ADAPTATION MEASURES AND PRIORITIZATION
Flood
CRITERIA
Criteria 1:
Cost effectiveness
Criteria 2:
Acceptability to
local
stakeholders
Relocation
3
1
Information & education campaign (IEC)
3
Community-based early warning system
Criteria 4: Size of
beneficiary group
Criteria 5: Ease of
implementation
2
3
1
10
3
3
3
3
15
3
3
3
3
3
15
Mangrove protection/reforestation
3
3
3
3
3
15
Mainstreaming of CC to local development plans;
provide budget
3
3
2
3
2
13
Identification & setting-up of evacuation centers
3
3
3
3
3
15
Integrated coastal management (ICM)
3
3
3
3
2
14
Proper waste disposal (closure of dumpsite)
3
3
3
3
2
14
Localized Building Code
3
2
2
2
1
10
Inter LGU dam management
3
3
3
3
3
15
Updated Comprehensive Land Use Plan
3
3
3
3
3
15
River rehabilitation and dredging
3
3
3
3
3
15
Potable water supply and SANITATION
3
3
3
3
3
15
ADAPTATION MEASURE
AND LOCATION
Criteria 3:
Institutional
capacity
Legend: 3 – very strongly recommended; 2 –strongly recommended;
1 – recommended; 0 – not recommended
TOTAL
ADAPTATION MEASURES AND PRIORITIZATION
SEA-LEVEL RISE
CRITERIA
ADAPTATION MEASURE
AND LOCATION
Criteria 1:
Cost
Effective
Criteria 2:
acceptability
to
stakeholders
Criteria 4:
Criteria 3:
size of
institutiona
beneficiary
l capacity
group
Criteria 5:
ease of
implement
ation
3
3
3
3
3
15
2. Mangrove protection
3
3
3
3
3
15
3. Integrated coastal
management
3
3
3
3
2
14
4. River rehabilitation and
dredging
3
3
3
3
3
15
5. Climate-proofing of
infrastructures
3
2
2
2
1
10
6. Setting of buffer zone
3
1
2
3
1
10
1.
IEC
TOTAL
Legend: 3 – very strongly recommended; 2 –strongly recommended; 1 – recommended; 0 – not recommended
ADAPTATION MEASURES AND PRIORITIZATION
Earthquake and Liquefaction
CRITERIA
Criteria 1:
Criteria 2:
Criteria 3:
Cost
Ease of
Endorsemen
effectiveness implementat ts by experts
ion
Criteria 4:
Criteria 5:
Acceptability Institutional
to local
capacity
stakeholders
IEC
3
3
3
3
3
15
Comprehensive land use plan
3
1
3
2
2
11
Community based early warning
(earthquake related disaster –
tsunami)
Support from the natl govt
(phivolcs and mgb)
Strict compliance with the natl
building code
Enforcement of zoning ordinance
3
2
3
3
3
14
3
2
3
2
2
13
3
3
3
3
3
15
3
2
3
2
2
12
Earthquake drill
3
3
3
3
3
15
Alternative sources of water
3
3
3
3
3
15
Evacuation Areas
3
3
3
3
3
15
ADAPTATION MEASURE
AND LOCATION
TOTAL
WHAT’S NEXT?
Public Health Sector Assessment
And Other Sectors
RATIONALE
Dagupan City is prone to water-borne diseases because it
serves as a catch basin of waters coming from the upland in
the central part of Pangasinan to the Lingayen Gulf. During
rainy seasons, waters from the river system rise above
normal causing massive flooding in the city. Moreover, due
to its elevation that is not more than 2-3 meters above sea
level, high tide and prolonged rain produces flooding. This
year, the city leads 48 towns and cities of Pangasinan in the
number of dengue cases as of August. There is a 300%
increase in the number of cases this year compared to the
same period (January-August) last year.
•News reports quoted from the Department of Health, 2011
Research Framework
Climatic Component
Extreme events
Natural Disaster
Health Impacts
Linkage Analysis
Intensity
Primary (Direct
Impact)
Seasonality
Mortality
Morbidity
Precipitation
Flood
Secondary
Impact
Dengue
Drought
Temperature
Malaria
Diarrhea
Tertiary Impact
Extreme events
Mental illness
Risk Assessment
Diurnal range
Maximum
Demographic &
Socioeconomic
Profiles
Risk Mapping:
Thresholds, Trends & Patterns
Strategic &
action plan for
Adaptation
Methodology
TASKS
TECHNIQUES
EXPECTED OUTCOMES
• Literature reviews
• Interview with experts (scientific)
and key persons (governance)
• Level of importance of the issue
• Validity of the selected variables
Data collection
 Climatic variables
 Health indicators
• Secondary climatic and healthrelated variables
• Relevant government agency &
research institution
• Empirical data for all investigated
parameters (i.e. climatic and
health-related variables)
• Observation based on period
Data Analysis
 Establish association
 Identify thresholds
 Investigate trends
 Map out patterns
• Descriptive statistics
• Correlation & regression
• Time-series analysis
• Principal component analysis
• GIS spatial analysis
• Magnitude of associations
• Specific thresholds for each
association
• Trends and patterns over
temporal and spatial dimensions
• SWOT Matrix Analysis
• Blue Ocean Strategy
• Workshop with key stakeholders
• Academic conference
• Relative-Risk maps
• Recommendation of strategic and
action plans for adaptation
Grounding the issues
 Set the research scopes
 Identify specific variables
Results Interpretation
 Putting the findings into
the right perspectives and
contexts (i.e. body of
knowledge & national policy
decision)
SALAMAT PO!
Thank you very much!
謝謝大家
ありがとうございました
Terima Kasih
ขอบคุณ
Cảm ơn