Group Discussion on Driving Forces
With others at your table, discuss what the future might look like in any or all of these areas. It might be
helpful to ask one member of the group to keep notes on the table below. If you foresee that different
directions might be plausible, use both alternatives. For some issues, like customer values, various
stakeholders could have different perspectives. We’ll ask each table to summarize its thinking for the
larger group, and DEI will use this input to develop scenarios for the next workshop.
Driving Force
ECONOMIC
Will the U.S. economy
remain stable, improve,
decline?
How might this affect
consumers?
How will the global
economy affect the U.S.
and energy markets?
Short Term (5 Years)
Long Term (25 years)
(A.) Slow Growth:
 Economic gains continue to
accrue to upper income.
 Stagnation of majority of
population
 Slow household formation and
low disposable income leads
to declining residential
demand.
 Lower consumer spending
leads to lower or flat C&I
demand.
Slow to No Growth:
 Structural economic
problems endure and grow.
 US endures long-term
economic stagnation leading
to demand destruction in all 3
customer segments.
(B.) Moderate Growth:
 High industrial growth due to
low gas prices
 Recovery in household
formation and home building
 US exports increase
 1-2% load growth
US maintains long-run average
growth of 2-4%:
 Incremental progress on
addressing structural
problems maintains
moderate economic growth
relative to other world
economies.
(C.) 1. Alternatives for overall US economy – as a proxy for load
growth:
 Stable – GDP growth 2.2% -- all sectors keep stable
 High – GDP growth 3% -- industry & commercial sectors take the
lead
 Low – GDG growth 1.5% -- industry & commercial sectors may
decline more
2. Electric grids.
3. Industry relocation
4. Natural gas competition
5. Global economy will affect industry sectors.
6. Severe Weather (drought, hurricanes, storms) can have profound
effects on the economy.
7. Increase in electricity rates in Indiana = customer investment in
conservation
Driving Force
Short Term (5 Years)
Long Term (25 years)
(D.) Almost doesn’t matter, in absence of “great depression”/global
war….Load will be a function of customer use, which will reflect the
“ethos” they – and following generations – have embraced/adopted.
Industrial & commercial sectors are more sensitive and more capable
of adopting changes. They will be leaders in adopting new
practices/technologies for energy consumption.
Price of substitutes (e.g. natural gas) will moderate consumer
response to changes in economics of electrical generation.
Also, advances in variety of “smart grid”/mobile/intelligent devices and
controllers offer vast horizon of capability of consumers in intelligently
regulating their demand.
REGULATION
How might federal
environmental or financial
regulation of utilities or
energy resources evolve?
What are the implications
for utility companies?
What are the implications
for consumers?
(A.) Base = Modified Clean Power
Plan
Alternative = Proxy carbon price
20% CO2 reduction
“no coal” – coal companies are
going out of business, so what
supply survives, and who
manages it (e.g. do the utilities
buy them?)
(B.) Transition to competition or
restructured regulation
(deregulation), starting quicker
with big business
Utility of the Future:
A. Portfolio manager
B. Grid manager
CUSTOMER VALUES
What service programs or
factors might be most
important to various
customer groups?
What kind of relationship
might customers have
with utilities?
Cost & Reliability
Residential Reliability & cost are most
important.
More Choices
Change our light bulbs.
More efficient appliances
Cost-driven self-generation
(independence) – control over
usage
Smart devices
Interest in deregulated sources
because of dislike of monopolies
generally
Appliances/housing efficiency –
ease of use impacting adoption
Low Income Cost & reliability
Equal access to technology &
options
2
Driving Force
Short Term (5 Years)
Ability to manage your bill – billing
options:
 Availability of help with bills
 Budget billing
 Pre-pay
Environmental Focused Lowering Duke Energy Indiana’s
carbon emissions
Green power options /
Green tariff?
Long Term (25 years)
Assistance for energy-efficient
devices
Pre-pay bills
Customer self-generation
possibilities
Net metering
Time of use rates
Net metering options
Electric vehicles / rates
Continued lowering of CO2
emissions
Deregulation?
Business Self-generation – based on value,
customer desires, corporate
initiatives)
Combined Heat & Power (CHP)?
Switch to energy efficient bulbs
Electric vehicles / rates
Utility-provided incentives / low
rates
Low rates
CHP?
Cost-effective rates for energy
efficiency
TECHNOLOGY
What kinds of technology
might develop to change
the utility industry?
How might these affect
the development,
generation, distribution of
electricity?
How might they affect
consumers’ use and cost
of electricity?
Deregulation?
Responding to environmental
rules that impact business
operations
Moving overseas?
Smart grid
Battery storage
Solar PV
Option to buy from market
including:
New transparent solar cells
PV road pavers
Electric vehicles
Smart appliances
“Enterprise energy management” / “Mini-nukes”
systems
Carbon capture
EE
Net Zero
3
Driving Force
Short Term (5 Years)
LED
Combined Heat & Power (CHP)
Taller wind towers
Biomass
Methane:
Coal bed methane
Landfill
Wastewater treatment to methane
Micro-turbines in industrial pipes
Micro grids
Customer distributed generation
(DG) /
Community solar
4
Long Term (25 years)