SAR for UAVs:
The next big thing
Airborne synthetic aperture radars (SARs)
process radar returns as if they were collected by an antenna several hundred meters long. The “synthetic” antenna aperture is created by the movement of the
aircraft itself (which is why aerostats do
not make good SAR platforms) and allows
a “parallax view” of the ground similar to
a stereoscopic optical image.
Typically, two primary modes are
used by SARs. The first, search or “spot”
mode, provides very high-resolution 3D
radar data for ground mapping and target
location, detection, and identification.
The second, ground moving target indicator (GMTI) mode, does just that—indicates objects that have been displaced
even slightly during the long radar scan.
Subsequent scans indicate further movement details.
SARs were developed during the
Cold War for their ability to provide
ground reconnaissance through clouds
and weather—unlike visual, infrared, and
even hyperspectral sensors—and for
GMTI. Northrop Grumman’s AN/APY-3
radar for the Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (JSTARS) aircraft was
designed to detect and track masses of Soviet tanks advancing across an overcast
Europe.
Today, despite the shift in geography
and opponents, SARs continue to be perhaps the most capable airborne reconnaissance technology. Because of bad
weather, two-thirds of NATO air-to-surface missions over Kosovo in 1999 were
not completed, having encountered more
than 50% cloud cover more than 70% of
the time. SARs cut through clouds and
smoke and can provide reconnaissance
and targeting data in any weather, unlike
visible light and infrared electrooptical
systems. For the Dept. of Homeland Security and antiterrorism, any sensor that
22
AEROSPACE AMERICA/FEBRUARY 2008
cannot provide 24-hr surveillance is useless against individuals who can simply
wait to move or attack until weather or
darkness shields them.
The JSTARS legacy:
Manned systems
Though missing out on the Cold War,
preproduction versions of JSTARS served
with great success in the 1990-1991 gulf
war over Iraq, and at least seven production aircraft served in Operation Iraqi
Freedom in 2003. Although considered a
legacy program now, the last of 19 platforms was only delivered in March 2005,
and a six-year, $532-million contract for
upgrade and support was awarded to
Northrop Grumman in November 2005.
In 2007, with the Air Force’s follow-on
E-10A SAR/GMTI Multi-Sensor Command
and Control Aircraft (MC2A) finally canceled, it looked as if JSTARS would get even
more technology transfers, and perhaps
complete next-generation systems such as
the MP-RTIP radar.
JSTARS will remain the world’s most
important manned SAR program for the
next decade or more, though funding
may not be huge because of constrained
budgets and other priorities. Our forecast
here is conservative, allowing for continued APY-3 service through the next
decade; if MP-RTIP is retrofitted, it would
likely be after this.
Following quickly in MC2A’s footsteps (or stumbles), the world’s other major widebody jet SAR program, NATO’s
AGS (Alliance Ground Surveillance), collapsed in late November after years of underfunding and bickering. In July 2007,
the Netherlands was no longer earmarking funds for AGS; according to defense
minister Eimart van Midelkoop, “We’ve
stopped funding AGS as we’re awaiting
the outcome of international discussions
about this program.” Then, in November
2007, faced with developing its own
manned radar (AGS was to be heavily
based on the MC2A’s MP-RTIP), NATO
dropped the manned aircraft component
of AGS, planning instead simply to buy
Global Hawks with the MP-RTIP radar.
With this, AGS essentially dissolved as a
European program.
The other major next-generation
manned SAR program, the U.K.’s Raytheon-developed ASTOR (Airborne
Stand-Off Radar), was still struggling to
reach service in late 2007. In June 2007,
the first ASTOR aircraft was delivered to
the RAF, having exceeded its planned
schedule by seven months. The in-service
date for the first aircraft was originally
slated for 2005, with two of five aircraft
delivered; but in mid-2007 this had
slipped to a still-optimistic “end of 2007,”
The first ASTOR aircraft was delivered to the RAF in June 2007.
with the ability to deploy
operationally by late 2008. Aircraft number five is expected this
year, with delays due to “parts shortages.”
The first overseas deployment to Texas of
the tactical ground station (TGS) occurred in September 2007.
But ASTOR is a half-generation of
technology older than MP-RTIP and a
much smaller system. It will mount an interleaved (but not concurrent) SAR/GMTI
dual-mode radar with an active electronically scanned array, based upon Raytheon’s ASARS-2 (U-2) and HISAR (Global Hawk), aboard a Bombardier Global
Express business jet. Much data processing and analysis will be carried out on the
ground by the TGS. This will save airborne volume and allow use of a more
economical and efficient business jet platform rather than a widebody such as the
JSTARS Boeing 707. In essence, ASTOR is
a final development of earlier systems.
One last major manned SAR now in
production, developed as a classified (or
at least hidden) program, is Raytheon’s
AN/APS-149(V) littoral surveillance radar
system, which has been seen mounted on
Navy P-3C aircraft. Its ventral “canoe”
antenna, and reported capabilities, are
equivalent to those of Northrop Grumman’s AN/APY-3 JSTARS radar. Seven
radars had been delivered by mid-2007,
with 16 Orions in the Block Modification
Upgrade Program (BMUP) reportedly capable of carrying the radar.
It is presumed that, like Raytheon’s
similarly antennaed ASTOR, the APS-149
provides a SAR mode with GMTI. However, it may also have an inverse synthetic
aperture radar (ISAR) mode, like Raytheon’s AN/APS-137(V) in service on
P-3Cs and under development for the
Boeing 737-based P-8A Multimission
Maritime Aircraft (MMA).
The existence of the APS-149 came
as something of a surprise, but not a
shock. Navy P-3C Orions have increasingly been used for overland surveillance,
and their APS-137 ISAR is not really the
best radar for this task (which raises ques-
JSTARS will remain the world’s most important
manned SAR program for the next 10 years.
tions about the new APS-137 being developed for the MMA). We suspect the Navy
may buy a full 16 radars for its BMUP
Orions, making the APS-149, suddenly,
quite a major program.
We must congratulate the Navy on its
efficient (if secret) procurement. The Navy
is not known for actually getting new systems in the field (A-12, P-7, ASPJ, DD(X),
ATIRCM, J-UCAS, and so on), and they
seem to have done an end run to provide a
very Air Force-JSTARS-like capability. Sixteen SAR/GMTI P-3Cs will provide a huge
all-weather ISR (intelligence, surveillance,
and reconnaissance) capability.
The future: UAVs
But aside from the surprise APS-149,
maritime patrol ISARs, and continuing
upgrade and support of manned systems,
the future is all UAVs. The first generation
of manned systems resulted in major programs such as JSTARS. But the few firstgeneration UAV SARs in service today, on
the first generation of endurance UAVs,
are legacy programs from before the UAV
spending explosion. Primary among these
are Raytheon’s Global Hawk HISAR and
Northrop Grumman’s Predator TESAR
(Tactical Endurance SAR). HISAR will
continue in production in upgraded
form, while TESAR has already been removed from service and is being replaced
by the General Atomics Lynx SAR on the
Predator B. From this very low level, the
next generation of UAV SARs will see
huge funding growth.
UAV SAR development funding has
already risen drastically in the past few
years. Initially, most of the increase was
due to the large MP-RTIP radar for future
Global Hawks. But today many smaller
SAR development programs, including
upgraded non-MP-RTIP radars for Global
Hawk, are funding a broader and more
robust increase. Programs entering production soon include a larger HISAR for
the enlarged USAF RQ-4B Global Hawk,
Lynx and Lynx II for Predator B, Warrior
ER/MP and Fire Scout, and the Telephonics RDR 1700 maritime radar for Coast
Guard Bell Eagle Eye UAVs. Programs in
development include the Navy’s Broad
Area Maritime Surveillance UAV (possibly
with an ISAR).
MP-RTIP development for Global
Hawk continues unabated, despite cancellations of manned platforms. Fifteen
USAF Block 40 Global Hawks with MPRTIP are currently planned, with the first
production MP-RTIP radar around 2010
and fielding planned from FY11 to FY15
(which we expect will slide right a couple
of years). NATO also plans to buy at least
a few Global Hawks with MP-RTIP, with
the first systems likely delivered by the
middle of the next decade.
Predators B and A, along with their
cousins, the Army’s Warrior ER/MP and
I-Gnat, are now receiving a next-generation replacement for the earlier Northrop
Grumman TESAR—General Atomics’
Lynx and Lynx II. Lynx is probably the
best of the new generation of small SARs,
and though unit cost is well below MPRTIP, General Atomics will gain funding
through sheer numbers produced. The
Army has also chosen Lynx II for its Future Combat System (FCS) Class IV Fire
Scout UAV, and the U.K. and the Dept. of
Homeland Security are customers. In
June 2007, the Iraqi air force contracted
to buy as many as two dozen Lynx IIs for
Beechcraft King Air 350ER ISR aircraft.
Now, with multiple U.S. orders,
General Atomics is also earning RDT&E
funding for technology development, including the Dual Beam Lynx program, to
enhance the capabilities of Lynx to track
slow-moving vehicles more accurately.
The program modifies a Lynx I radar to
create two beams with different phase
centers. It also uses space time adaptive
processing to detect moving targets in the
AEROSPACE AMERICA/FEBRUARY 2008
23
ter UAV. Designated the RDR1700CG, it will develop
unique new abilities for UAVs,
enabling Eagle Eye to avoid
other aircraft in civilian airspace while providing maritime surveillance, weather
avoidance, and search and
rescue capabilities.
But delays and problems
have dogged both Deepwater
and Eagle Eye. Eagle Eye was
The MP-RTIP was flown on the Proteus UAV in preparation for
chosen as the Coast Guard’s
its installation on Global Hawk.
vertical-takeoff UAV back
main beam clutter. The goals include
when Northrop Grumman’s Fire Scout
demonstrating improvement in minimal
was having teething troubles. But now
detectable velocity, improving geolocaFire Scout is ready for full-rate production accuracy, and achieving a low manution and Eagle Eye is mired in delays. The
facturing cost.
Coast Guard has said they are sticking
In May 2007, the Air Force Research
with Bell, but Northrop Grumman is still
Laboratory also awarded General Atomics
trying to convert them to Fire Scout and
a contract for the SPI3D (standoff preciLynx II.
sion identification in 3D) program, to deOne more important SAR for tactical
velop high-resolution 3D imaging sysUAVs (TUAVs) is Syracuse Research’s
tems. The company can now draw on
Forester ultra-high-frequency foliage pengovernment RDT&E money rather than
etrating SAR, for the Army’s FCS A160
funding its own technology developments
Hummingbird UAV. In September 2006,
as it has in the past.
defense appropriations conferees wanted
Another new small UAV SAR is Teleto cut $12 million or more from Forester
phonics’ RDR-1700, being developed for
development, but a Pentagon appeal
the Coast Guard’s Bell Eagle Eye Deepwastated that the ability to sense through fo-
Market growth: UAVs take over
The UAV SAR market will grow much
faster than the manned SAR market. In
fact, it will grow much faster than perhaps any defense electronics market. Although endurance UAVs will remain relatively small platforms with light payloads
(only 3,000 lb for the USAF’s enlarged
Global Hawk), growing funding will go
toward a nearly universal fit of small
SARS on endurance and tactical UAVs.
Improved technology eventually will
provide smaller UAV SARs with capabilities equivalent to the large 1980s-design
JSTARS system, though without an onboard C4I capability. The UAV SAR market will exceed the manned SAR market
in funding for the first time in FY11 and
never look back.
WORLD MANNED SAR MARKET SHARE
WORLD UAV SAR MARKET SHARE
RDT&E procurement available to U.S.
RDT&E procurement available to U.S.
FY 2007 $millions
FY 2007 $millions
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
FY07 FY08
Raytheon
24
liage is “desperately needed” for surveillance missions in U.S. southern and central commands: “The [Defense Dept.’s]
current capability is one aging test bed
system on a manned aircraft that contains
soon-to-be-outdated equipment with a
limited anticipated lifetime.”
Last May, DARPA announced it will
award a contract to Boeing to test-fly the
Forester radar on its A160 UAV. Tests in
the U.S. will take from six to nine months.
FY09 FY10
FY11 FY12 FY13
Telephonics
FY14 FY15
Northrop Grumman
AEROSPACE AMERICA/FEBRUARY 2008
FY16
Available
FY07 FY08
FY09 FY10
FY11 FY12 FY13
Gen Atomics
Nor Grumman
Syr Research
Other
Available
FY14 FY15
Raytheon
FY16
Telephonics
WORLD MANNED SAR FUNDING
WORLD UAV SAR FUNDING
RDT&E procurement available to U.S.
RDT&E procurement available to U.S.
FY 2007 $millions
FY 2007 $millions
$1,200
$1,200
1,000
1,000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
MC2A MP-RTIP
JSTARS APY-3
ASTOR
This is happening because, while big
manned SARs will always provide a capability not available elsewhere—in-the-air
command and control—smaller SARs will
increasingly be mounted on UAVs rather
than on shorter endurance manned platforms such as the U-2 and P-3. With
SARs providing all-weather, all-the-time
surveillance, intelligence collection will
benefit greatly from the persistence of
longer UAV endurance.
Thus, while big SARs like JSTARS
and ASTOR will continue to garner hundreds of millions of dollars a year, the
heyday of manned small SARs like Raytheon’s U-2 ASARS-2 is over. Funding
will remain, especially for naval helicopter-mounted ISAR systems such as the
Telephonics AN/APS-147, but funding
will not grow, while small UAV SARs take
off as the next important SAR market.
The future for UAV SARs, at least in
terms of growth, is huge. Funding will
ramp up, especially for small SARs for tactical UAVs, such as Northrop Grumman’s
Fire Scout and, eventually, the Army’s
Shadow 200 TUAV. Ultimately, mini- and
micro-UAVs may get SARs also, to enable
all-weather extreme tactical surveillance.
APS-149
Other
GH MP-RTIP
Global Hawk Other
U.S. Endurance
Lynx/Lynx II
U.S. Tactical
Avail International
Wide-open UAV markets
In terms of market access, the manned
SAR market is already pretty much locked
up for the next decade. Raytheon will
continue to dominate the manned SAR
market, with multiple small programs as
well as ASTOR and the APS-149.
Northrop Grumman will rely heavily on
JSTARS funding, and Telephonics will actually earn a little more than Northrop,
with production of its APS-147 and AN/
APS-143 ramping up.
The UAV SAR market, on the other
hand, will offer great opportunities. Several small developers already have earned
big contracts—General Atomics with its
Lynx and Lynx II, Telephonics with the
RDR 1700, Syracuse Research with the
Forester SAR, and maybe Sandia National
Laboratories with its MiniSAR. Already,
this is incredible. The Big Three defense
electronics firms today hold less than
one-third of the market, with Lockheed
Martin not participating at all. Northrop
Grumman and Raytheon are this big only
because of MP-RTIP. In fact, we see General Atomics as the number-one UAV SAR
manufacturer of the next decade.
A full 50% of forecast market fund-
General Atomics Lynx SAR has already earned
big contracts.
ing is still uncontracted and available
throughout our forecast period. Clearly,
Northrop and Raytheon will earn some of
this, but small UAV SARs are one very
rare example of a field where anything
seems possible, and a small technology
company could suddenly find itself a major player. Equally, the opportunity exists
for nearly any established defense electronics firm to become an important
player as well, either through acquisition
or internal development. UAV SARs offer
incredible opportunities.
David L. Rockwell
drockwell@tealgroup.com
AEROSPACE AMERICA/FEBRUARY 2008
25